Larry Ness
Pittsburgh won Super Bowl XL in February 2006 but finished 8-8 the following regular season, missing out on the playoffs in coach Bill Cowher's final year. New head coach Mike Tomlin took just two seasons to lead Pittsburgh to another Super Bowl last year (an NFL record-setting sixth title) but his 2009 team seems to be dealing with a similar hangover. The Steelers have lost three straight games to fall to 6-5 and enter this Week 13 game looking to avoid their first four-game losing streak in five years. QB Ben Roethlisberger's absence last week due to a concussion stirred up some locker room controversy but "all systems are go" as he's expected to start on Sunday. Big Ben's return should be enough to spark the offense in this "must win" situation. The team's third-ranked defense (288.4 YPG) has blown fourth-quarter leads in consecutive overtime losses. The Steelers let KC drive 91 yards to a tying TD in Week 11 in a game the Chiefs would win 27-24 in OT. Then last Sunday night in Baltimore, after backup quarterback Dennis Dixon had given Pittsburgh a lead, the defense allowed the Ravens to march 84 yards for a tying FG, before Baltimore won 20-17 in OT. The good news is that the Oakland offense tends to cure all defensive woes.
JaMarcus Russell has been benched (two TDs and nine INTs and a QB rating of 47.7 which is almost as low as his completion percentage of 46.8). Bruce Gradkowski has taken over and threw for 183 yards and two TDs to lead Oakland to a 20-17 upset of Cincinnati on Nov. 22 and then had 200 yards and a TD at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day in a 24-7 loss. That game wasn't as close as the score indicated, as the Raiders did very little (14 FDs, converting just 4-of-15 third and fourth downs). Meanwhile, the Cowboys gained 494 yards, sparked by five plays of at least 40 yards and eight of at least 25 (no NFL team had done that since New Orleans in October 2006). The Raiders won their first road game of 2009 at KC 13-10 but have since lost their last four. Oakland is averaging just 9.8 PPG on the road this year, getting outgained on average, 412-to-188 yards. In the team's four straight road losses, Oakland has allowed 30.3 PPG. Seems like the perfect foil for the Steelers to me. Weekend Wipeout Winner on the Pit Steelers (7.5*).
: No one was quite sure how Brady would come back after missing the final 15 games of the 2008 season with his injury. He returned to throw for 378 yards in New England's season-opener against Buffalo (two late TD passes gave the Pats the win) but then averaged a modest 241.5 YPG with just four TD passes in the team's next four games (Pats stood just 3-2). However, the Pats rebounded to go 4-1 their next five games, losing only that SNF debacle at Indy (no recap needed!). Brady averaged 341 YPG in that stretch (topping 300 yards in each game), with 14 TDs and just four INTs. He completed 72.0 percent with the Pats averaging 37.2 PPG. There were issues with the running game and the defense (at times) but Brady is sure "all the way back!' Welker had 53 catches in those five games with Moss catching 33 for seven TDs and was averaging 18.7 YPC before getting held down by the Jets in Week 11. Then came last Monday's game at New Orleans. Brees had five TDs (zero INTs) and 371 yards in a 38-17 Saints win. Brady was 21-of-36 for a modest 237 yards without a TD pass and two INTs. Moss had three catches for 67 yards (zero TDs) and Welker had six catches for just 32 yards. All of a sudden, the Pats are just 7-4 and with a loss here to the 5-6 Dolphins, would be just one game up in the AFC East over both Miami and the Jets. The Dolphins are without Ronnie Brown but Ricky Williams is playing as if he's 25, gaining 119 and 115 yards rushing (with three TDs) in the two games since Brown was lost for the season. The 5-6 Dolphins have already lost more games than they did all of last season, when they went 11-5 and captured the AFC East for the first time since 2000, edging the Patriots in a tie-breaker (think Belichick and the Pats remember?). Miami is in "bounce-back" mode itself, after the Dolphins allowed 24 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to the Bills, losing 31-14 last week. The Dolphins were 'high' on QB Henne but have to be losing confidence in the Michigan product. He competed 70.8% of his throws (3-0 ratio) in winning his first two starts but he's 3-3 in his last six starts, completing just 49.5% of his passes for an average of only 177.3 YPG with a four-to-six ratio. Doesn't Brady vs Henne seem like a 'monster' mismatch? Let's look at how the Pats have reacted off a SU loss since 2003. The Pats famously opened that '03 season with a 31-0 loss at Buffalo. They won the next week and in their only other loss of 2003, followed it with a win and cover. The Pats lost just twice in 2004, going 2-0 SU and ATS after those losses. New England would lose six regular season games in 2005, following those losses by going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the very next game. The Pats lost four times in 2006, going 3-1 SU and ATS after a loss. Then came the 2007 season in which the Pats went 16-0. Brady went down for the year in Week 1 of 2008 but with Cassel taking over at QB, the Pats went 5-0 SU and 4-1 after their regular season losses. That's an incredible record of 18-1 SU and 16-3 ATS (84.2%) off a SU loss from 2003-08. The Pats lost at the Jets in Week 2 this season and "right on cue," beat the Falcons in their next game, 26-10 at minus-4 1/2. The Pats have also followed SU losses this year to Denver with a 59-0 win over the Titans and a 35-34 loss to the Colts with a 31-14 win over the Jets Updating the numbers, that makes the Pats 21-1 SU and 19-3 (86.4%) off a SU loss from 2003-09. Coming off that MNF 'spanking' at the hands of the Saints, look for the Pats to come through. Club-80 Play on the NE Pats (9*).
When the Colts and Titans met in Week 5, the Titans were a mess. Indy's 31-9 win dropped the Titans to 0-5 and the Colts moved to 5-0. The Titans would fall to 0-6 the following week with a 59-0 loss at New England but fortunately would have a bye week after that loss. Of course, the Colts have kept on winning. This Week 13 meeting features two of the hottest teams in the NFL. Indy became the first team to secure a playoff berth with last Sunday's come-from-behind 35-27 win over Houston and also clinched the AFC South title when the 49ers beat the Jags later in the day. The Colts are also getting closer to clinching the top seed in the AFC. I doubt anyone is unaware that the Colts have won 20 straight regular season games and with a win will tie the all-time record, held by the Pats (21 staright set from 2006-08). As for the Titans, Tennessee owner Bud Adams insisted that Vince Young replace Kerry Collins at QB after the Titans' bye week. The boss knew best! Young had a troubled season last year, while Kerry Collins led the Titans to a 13-3 mark, the best mark in the entire NFL. Young was very solid in the Titans' first four wins after the bye, completing 64.4 percent with three TDs and just one INT. He averaged a modest 155.8 YPG through the air but also showed an ability to run (146 yards and one TD in his first four starts). However, he had a "breakout performance" last week. He completed 27-of-43 for a career-high 387 passing yards vs Cards. Kenny Britt caught Vince Young's 10-yard pass in the back of the end zone as time expired to cap an 18-play, 99-yard drive, as Young converted three fourth downs on the final drive. While Young has been very good, RB Chris Johnson has been spectacular and a now-healthy Tennessee defense has made major strides. Johnson is the NFL's leading rusher with 1,396 yards. He ran for 154 yards against the Cardinals last week for his sixth straight game of at least 125, matching the NFL mark held by Earl Campbell (1980) and Eric Dickerson (1984). His 85-yard TD run late in the third quarter was his third TD of at least 85 yards this season. No other player in NFL history has that many in a career. How about that daily double? Tennessee's D was among the best in the NFL last year, allowing the 2nd-fewest points (14.6 PPG) and 293.6 YPG (7th-best). However, with injuries to its 2ndary, Tennessee allowed a ridiculous 304.7 YPG through six games, giving up 19 TD passes with just four INTs. However, with the return to health of a number of key players, Tennessee's allowed just a little over 200 YPG through the air the last five games with six TD passes allowed and seven INTs. After allowing 33.0 PPG through six games, the Titans have allowed just 18.2 PPG in their five-game winning streak. The Colts entered last week's game at Houston having won their previous four games by a total of just 10 points. Indy fell behind 17-0 in the second quarter against the Texans but trailed just 20-14 after three quarters before becoming the first team in league history to produce five straight fourth-quarter comeback wins. Do I really need to talk about Peyton? Will the Colts win again? Maybe but I'm riding the Titans and taking the points. The Colts luck is past due on running out and Indy has been extemely formful in 2009. While the Colts are 6-0 ATS on the road, they are just 1-4 ATS here at home. Revenge Rout on the Ten Titans (8*).
Al Skinner has had quite a coaching career so far. Skinner had led the Eagles to six NCAA bids over a seven-year span (averaged 23.4 wins per season) but the 2007-08 team was flop, falling to 14-17. However, it wa business a usual in Chestnut Hill last year, as the Eagles won 22 games and returned to the "Big Dance. Four starters return this year, although leading scorer Rice (16.9) is a huge loss. Junior PG Paris (6.7 PPG and 5.6 APG) isn't the scorer that Tyrese Rice was over the last three years but he is giving the Eagles solid play at the point. His 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio in the early going is actually better than Rice's last season, when he had 119 turnovers against 172 assists. Up front, 6-6 swingman Raji (16.2-7.4) leads the team in scoring joined by the 6-8 Trapani (15.1-8.1) and the 6-10 Southern (9.6-4.3). The 6-7 Roche (10.1) adds depth up front off the bench. Joining Paris in the backcourt is the multi-talented Jackson (14.6-8.0) and 6-5 sophomore Elmore (4.1). The Eagles are winning with defense, holding their opponents to 65.7 PPG, an improvement of nearly five points a game over last season. The Hurricanes come to town a perfect 8-0. The 6-8 Collins (12.9-8.8) leads in scoring and rebounding and is joined up front by the 6-7 Thomas (6.8), the 6-7 Jones (6.3) and the 6-9 McGowan (5.1-5.1). Like BC, Miami lost its leading scorer from last year in McClinton but the 'Canes are just fine on the perimeter. Dews (12.6) is the leading scorer of the group, joined by PG Grant (11.8-3.4 APG) and freshman Scott (8.6-5.3). This is the first ACC game for both teams but neither play another league foe until early January (weird sked). This will be Miami's first true road game, while BC opens an eight-game homestand which keeps them here in Boston until January 9. I didn't mention earlier that BC has opened 5-2 this year without 6-5 forward Rakim Sanders (12.9-4.4 last year), who was been out because of an ankle injury. The Eagles have won two games on the road (Providence and Michigan) and are actually a perfect 4-0 on the mainland, as its losses to Saint Joseph’s and Northern Iowa came in the Paradise Jam tournament in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Last year Miamai caught BC here at home in its very next ACC game after the Eagles had upset then-No. 1 North Carolina 77-71 and the 'Canes whupped the Eagles. This time around, the setting is much different as the 'Canes come in 8-0 and as mentioned, will be playing their first true road game. Al Skinner knows how to win games like this. Situational Mismatch on Bos College (9*).
The 49ers and Seahawks are not worrying about the postseason but the 49ers know a win here gets them to 6-6 and gives them a chance at the team's first winning season since 2002. As for the Seahawks, the biggest news is that Mike Holmgren may be back as the team's GM. That being said, I am not discounting Seattle's chances in this game at all. In fact, I believe the Seahawks should have a fairly easy time of it on Sunday. The 49ers beat the Seahawks 23-10 back in Week 2 at San Francisco, as RB Frank Gore had a season-high 207 yards rushing with two TDs. That was the last time the 49ers have won two in a row. Gore has missed two games since that Week 2 win and has just one, 100-yard effort in the seven that he's played in since, including just 92 yards in his last two outings. The 49ers may be thinking more pass these days, as Smith had 232 yards passing in a 20-3 win over Jacksonville last Sunday. San Francisco has 447 passing yards and 44 points in the last two games, after being held to 14 points in three of its previous five contests. However, let's not forget that Alex Smith is a dismal 13-22 (.371) as a starting QB in his NFL career, including 2-3 this year. Seattle had to play a third straight road game in Week 12 but the good news was that game was at St Louis and Seattle won 27-17. Justin Forsett ran for a career-high 130 yards and two TDs on 22 carries as the Seahawks rushed for a season-high 170 yards. Forsett has four TDs and has topped 100 yards twice in the last three games but starting RB Julius Jones is expected back this week. One too many RBs? We'll see. QB Matt Hasselbeck was knocked out of Seattle's first game with San Francisco, suffering broken ribs and a back injury which still haven't completely healed. However, Hasslebaeck is in pretty good shape and he's been excellent at home this year, except for the Arizona game (10-of-29 for 112 yards with one INT of a 27-3 loss). The Seahawks are 3-0 in Hasselbeck's other three home starts (he DNP in a home loss to Chicago), with Seattle averaging 33.7 PPG and Hasselbeck averaging 283 YPG with eight TDs and just three INTs. San Fran's pass D ranks 28th (257 YPG / 62.5% completions) and Hasslebeck is 8-4 as a starter against the 49ers in his career. The 49ers have lost all four road games since winning Week 1 at Arizona and there's no reason for that to change here, in a very tough home venue. NFC West Division Dominator on the Sea Seahawks (10*).
Let's hear it for Paul Westphal up in Sacramento. Martin, a 23.7 and 24.6 PPG scorer the last two seasons, underwent surgery on his injured left wrist and is expected to miss at least eight weeks (he was averaging 30.6 points in five games). The 6-7 Francisco Garcia will also miss at least the first four months of the season after undergoing surgery on his injured forearm and wrist (scored 12.3 and 12,7 PPG the last two years). Despite theses MAJOR losses, the Kings are 9-9 and an impressive 13-5 ATS. Last night's 115-107 loss at Phoenix (but cover), is the perfect example of the VAST improvement of this team. The Kings were in a terrible spot. They were coming off a 4-0 homestand and catching the high-scoring Suns off their first back-to-back losses of the season, playing at home where the Suns had averaged 118.5 PPG this season. What's more, the Suns had won 12 of 14 overall in the series, winning Sacramento's last seven visits to Phoenix by an average margin of 24.5 PPG. However, the Suns could never shake the Kings, who were led by rookie Evans (21-6-7) and former Chicago forward Nocioni (20 points). Evans (19.4-5.1-4.9) has been even better than advertised while Beno Udrih (13.8-3.9 APG) has also been terrific. Rodriguez has suddenly become a scoring option off the bench (13.0 PPG in his last six games) plus the team's two 6-11 big men, Thompson (14.4-9.1) and Hawes (11.6-6.7), are exceeding expectations as well. I've always liked Nocioni (11.9-4.1) from his Chicago days and Casspi, a 6-9 rookie from Israel, is averaging 10.1 PPG and 3.8 RPG. The Heat opened the new season 6-1 SU and ATS but will come into this game just 3-7 their last 10 games and going back further, are 3-9 ATS in their last 12. Miami finished the 2007-08 season with the NBA's worst record (15-67) but Wade led the NBA in scoring last year (30.2 PPG), carrying the Heat back to the playoffs. Wade is averaging 26.7-5.2-5.9 this year, teamed with Beasley (15.2-6.8), who has greatly improved in his second season plus a healthy O'Neal (14.3-8.1). However, O'Neal is expected to miss this game for personal reasons, leaving the Heat short. Haslem (10.1-7.8) has been coming off the bench but will likely start with Chalmers (10.1-4.0 APG) joining Wade in the starting backcourt and Richardson (8.0-5.0) starting at the small forward spot. The Kings have lost 10 of their last 11 vs the Heat but this is a different year and a different team. The Kings finished an NBA-worst 17-65 overall last year but are off to a 9-9 (13-5 ATS) start in 2009-10, including 8-2 SU and ATS at home. At the end of a four-game road trip and without O'Neal, the Heat fall to the surprising Kings in this one and the "price is sure right!" Sunday Night Delight on the Sac Kings (8*).
