Sun, 11/09/08 - 4:15 PMvegas-runner | NFL Total Double-Dime Bet
228 SDC / 227 KAN Over 47.0 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis: ** 2* NFL TOTAL **
Sun, 11/09/08 - 4:15 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Triple-Dime Bet
228 SDC -14.0 (-120) Sportsbetting.com vs 227 KAN
Analysis:
*** NFL 3* BLOW-OUT GAME of the WEEK ***
( Buy the 1/2 Point to -14
228 SDC / 227 KAN Over 47.0 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis: ** 2* NFL TOTAL **
Sun, 11/09/08 - 4:15 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Triple-Dime Bet
228 SDC -14.0 (-120) Sportsbetting.com vs 227 KAN
Analysis:
*** NFL 3* BLOW-OUT GAME of the WEEK ***
( Buy the 1/2 Point to -14
More VR
vegas-runner | NFL Money Line Double-Dime Bet
217 NOS (-130) Sportsbetting.com vs 218 ATL
Analysis:
*** NFL 2* TOTAL TEASER PLAY of the DAY ***
OVER 43 NO/ATL & UNDER 51 STL/NYJ (2*)...Teaser...
Sun, 11/09/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
220 NYJ -9.0 (-110) SportBet vs 219 STL
Analysis: ** NFL 2* WAGER **
Sun, 11/09/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Money Line Double-Dime Bet
220 NYJ (-130) Sportsbetting.com vs 219 STL
Analysis:
*** NFL 2* SIDE TEASER PLAY of the DAY ***
NY JETS -2 & HOUSTON +6 (2*)...Teaser...
Sun, 11/09/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Total Double-Dime Bet
210 HOU / 209 CIN Over 43.0 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis:
** NFL 2* TOTAL **
Sun, 11/09/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
236 HOU 1.0 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 235 BAL
Analysis:
** NFL 2* WAGER **
Sun, 11/09/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
214 CHI 3.5 (-120) Sportsbetting.com vs 213 TEN
Analysis:
** NFL 2* WAGER ** (BUY the 1/2 Pt to +3)
Bonus NASCAR Bet :
1.) CLINT BOWYER (+2000) (1*)...
The obvious choice for today's Phoenix race is Jimmy Johnson, who is also the Chase Leader...He's won the L/2 there and is sitting on the Pole again this afternoon...But at a price of +300 or less, I just can't back him in this spot, because even though it's his to lose...there is just so much on the line that we may see JJ not take the risks he has been prone to in the past...
So I decided to look to another driver, that I feel has the ability to win on this track...and more importantly, is definately priced much higher than his probability of winning warrents...Let's back the "under-the-radar" Bowyer in this one, and see if he can get us a 20-1 Payday...VR
Sun, 11/09/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Triple-Dime Bet
224 MIN -2.0 (-115) Sportsbetting.com vs 223 GBP
Analysis:
**** NFC NORTH 4* GAME of the MONTH ****
( VIKINGS -2 -115 )
Sun, 11/09/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
215 BUF 4.0 (-110) Bodog vs 216 NEP
Analysis: ** NFL 2* WAGER **
Sun, 11/09/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Total Double-Dime Bet
216 NEP / 215 BUF Under 42.0 Bodog
Analysis:
** NFL 2* TOTAL ** (Buy the 1/2 to 42)
I posted the Bet at 42 (-120)...And I urge those who have the ability to BUY the hook...to go ahead and do so, because 42 is such a KEY Total in the NFL...VR
Sun, 11/09/08 - 4:15 PMvegas-runner | NFL Total Double-Dime Bet
228 SDC / 227 KAN Over 47.0 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis: ** 2* NFL TOTAL **
Sun, 11/09/08 - 4:15 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Triple-Dime Bet
228 SDC -14.0 (-120) Sportsbetting.com vs 227 KAN
Analysis:
*** NFL 3* BLOW-OUT GAME of the WEEK ***
( Buy the 1/2 Point to -14 )
<!-- / message -->
vegas-runner | NFL Money Line Double-Dime Bet
217 NOS (-130) Sportsbetting.com vs 218 ATL
Analysis:
*** NFL 2* TOTAL TEASER PLAY of the DAY ***
OVER 43 NO/ATL & UNDER 51 STL/NYJ (2*)...Teaser...
Sun, 11/09/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
220 NYJ -9.0 (-110) SportBet vs 219 STL
Analysis: ** NFL 2* WAGER **
Sun, 11/09/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Money Line Double-Dime Bet
220 NYJ (-130) Sportsbetting.com vs 219 STL
Analysis:
*** NFL 2* SIDE TEASER PLAY of the DAY ***
NY JETS -2 & HOUSTON +6 (2*)...Teaser...
Sun, 11/09/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Total Double-Dime Bet
210 HOU / 209 CIN Over 43.0 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis:
** NFL 2* TOTAL **
Sun, 11/09/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
236 HOU 1.0 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 235 BAL
Analysis:
** NFL 2* WAGER **
Sun, 11/09/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
214 CHI 3.5 (-120) Sportsbetting.com vs 213 TEN
Analysis:
** NFL 2* WAGER ** (BUY the 1/2 Pt to +3)
Bonus NASCAR Bet :
1.) CLINT BOWYER (+2000) (1*)...
The obvious choice for today's Phoenix race is Jimmy Johnson, who is also the Chase Leader...He's won the L/2 there and is sitting on the Pole again this afternoon...But at a price of +300 or less, I just can't back him in this spot, because even though it's his to lose...there is just so much on the line that we may see JJ not take the risks he has been prone to in the past...
So I decided to look to another driver, that I feel has the ability to win on this track...and more importantly, is definately priced much higher than his probability of winning warrents...Let's back the "under-the-radar" Bowyer in this one, and see if he can get us a 20-1 Payday...VR
Sun, 11/09/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Triple-Dime Bet
224 MIN -2.0 (-115) Sportsbetting.com vs 223 GBP
Analysis:
**** NFC NORTH 4* GAME of the MONTH ****
( VIKINGS -2 -115 )
Sun, 11/09/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
215 BUF 4.0 (-110) Bodog vs 216 NEP
Analysis: ** NFL 2* WAGER **
Sun, 11/09/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Total Double-Dime Bet
216 NEP / 215 BUF Under 42.0 Bodog
Analysis:
** NFL 2* TOTAL ** (Buy the 1/2 to 42)
I posted the Bet at 42 (-120)...And I urge those who have the ability to BUY the hook...to go ahead and do so, because 42 is such a KEY Total in the NFL...VR
Sun, 11/09/08 - 4:15 PMvegas-runner | NFL Total Double-Dime Bet
228 SDC / 227 KAN Over 47.0 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis: ** 2* NFL TOTAL **
Sun, 11/09/08 - 4:15 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Triple-Dime Bet
228 SDC -14.0 (-120) Sportsbetting.com vs 227 KAN
Analysis:
*** NFL 3* BLOW-OUT GAME of the WEEK ***
( Buy the 1/2 Point to -14 )
<!-- / message -->
Moby Dick Picks
Here's a guy Ive been getting NBA picks from a friend in Vegas. Guess he's a whale based on the name. They come few and far between but so far this year he is 6-2. Ive only played him twice and hit but I would still play with caution until I see more from him.
Atlanta -4
Houston/LAL Over 189
Thanks to both posters who released IC's picks!
Here's a guy Ive been getting NBA picks from a friend in Vegas. Guess he's a whale based on the name. They come few and far between but so far this year he is 6-2. Ive only played him twice and hit but I would still play with caution until I see more from him.
Atlanta -4
Houston/LAL Over 189
Thanks to both posters who released IC's picks!
TheProSource
NFL FB 11/9
line may go to +2 or +3
Houston +1 ** TOP Play Underdog GOM **
vs Baltimore 1 pm et
This won't be a popular pick. But like the Bengal's SU win
last week in an ugly system, the teams in these spots are
mostly bad teams, but they get the money.
We don't mind a bit that Houston QB Rosenfels is starting
in this one. He's a 30 yr old eight yr vet, and in 5 starts in
which he has had a full week to prepare as Matt Schaub’s
replacement, Rosenfels has helped the Texans to 4 W's.
Being a former starter and having a week to get ready is
a lot different than tossing a cold rookie in off the bench.
Houston is a bit of a tougher play now that LB Zac Diles
has been lost for the season with a broken leg. Diles, the
team's leading tackler, actually broke his leg in a drill
before Wednesday's practice.
Nonetheless, this is a bad spot for the Ravens. Baltimore
is off a lucky Division win at Cleveland last week, & will be
heading to the Big Apple to take on the defending champ
Giants next week. This is about our best dog system, but
will be just a regular play with the LB outage.
Teams in the Ravens spot & fitting all 6 parts of the system
will lose over 90% of the time next game for over 25 seasons.
Houst 9-3 home when ttl is 38 to 42 S1992 & 5-2 as a 3 or
less home dog S1992
Balt 0-6 L3ys away when ttl is 38 to 42, 4-11 vs AFC South
S1992, 0-6 away in November off BB/SU ats wins, 2-15 away
off BB SU wins and scored 35(+) last, an almost perfect 1-14
after scoring 35(+) pts lst gm if they scored 10(+) the gm prior
and a perfect 0-9 off 3 AFC gms in a row if they scored 35(+)
the last game.
St Louis + 8 Interconferenc GOW
at NY Jets 1 pm et
REAL bad spot for the Jets. NY has no focus in their game
prior to their dreaded trip to New England, 1-16 ATS before
New England away ! that's 94% for 17 yrs.
The distraction will be magnified if possible, as NY will play
NE on Thursday, just 4 days later, and are off their lucky
win vs the Division leading Bills in Buffalo.
The Rams have played 4 games under Haslett and seem to
be buying whatever he's selling. Stl covered 3 of the 4 and
WON 2 SU...that includes Dallas, NE, and Washington.
Teaser time..once again, teams we feel have
very little chance to lose their games SU
this is the readily available 10 pt specialty teaser (-120)
Carolina +1.5 (vs oak)
Miami +.5 (vs sea)
AZ +.5 (vs sf monday)
NFL FB 11/9
line may go to +2 or +3
Houston +1 ** TOP Play Underdog GOM **
vs Baltimore 1 pm et
This won't be a popular pick. But like the Bengal's SU win
last week in an ugly system, the teams in these spots are
mostly bad teams, but they get the money.
We don't mind a bit that Houston QB Rosenfels is starting
in this one. He's a 30 yr old eight yr vet, and in 5 starts in
which he has had a full week to prepare as Matt Schaub’s
replacement, Rosenfels has helped the Texans to 4 W's.
Being a former starter and having a week to get ready is
a lot different than tossing a cold rookie in off the bench.
Houston is a bit of a tougher play now that LB Zac Diles
has been lost for the season with a broken leg. Diles, the
team's leading tackler, actually broke his leg in a drill
before Wednesday's practice.
Nonetheless, this is a bad spot for the Ravens. Baltimore
is off a lucky Division win at Cleveland last week, & will be
heading to the Big Apple to take on the defending champ
Giants next week. This is about our best dog system, but
will be just a regular play with the LB outage.
Teams in the Ravens spot & fitting all 6 parts of the system
will lose over 90% of the time next game for over 25 seasons.
Houst 9-3 home when ttl is 38 to 42 S1992 & 5-2 as a 3 or
less home dog S1992
Balt 0-6 L3ys away when ttl is 38 to 42, 4-11 vs AFC South
S1992, 0-6 away in November off BB/SU ats wins, 2-15 away
off BB SU wins and scored 35(+) last, an almost perfect 1-14
after scoring 35(+) pts lst gm if they scored 10(+) the gm prior
and a perfect 0-9 off 3 AFC gms in a row if they scored 35(+)
the last game.
St Louis + 8 Interconferenc GOW
at NY Jets 1 pm et
REAL bad spot for the Jets. NY has no focus in their game
prior to their dreaded trip to New England, 1-16 ATS before
New England away ! that's 94% for 17 yrs.
The distraction will be magnified if possible, as NY will play
NE on Thursday, just 4 days later, and are off their lucky
win vs the Division leading Bills in Buffalo.
The Rams have played 4 games under Haslett and seem to
be buying whatever he's selling. Stl covered 3 of the 4 and
WON 2 SU...that includes Dallas, NE, and Washington.
Teaser time..once again, teams we feel have
very little chance to lose their games SU
this is the readily available 10 pt specialty teaser (-120)
Carolina +1.5 (vs oak)
Miami +.5 (vs sea)
AZ +.5 (vs sf monday)
From a friend:
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Detroit Lions Play: Jacksonville Jaguars / Detroit Lions Under 44
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS: New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles -3 (POD) Play: Philadelphia Eagles -3 (POD)
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS: New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Play: Atlanta Falcons -1
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Detroit Lions Play: Jacksonville Jaguars / Detroit Lions Under 44
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS: New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles -3 (POD) Play: Philadelphia Eagles -3 (POD)
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS: New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Play: Atlanta Falcons -1
SHARP FOOTBALL ANALYSIS {now a pay service}
Records of Personal Plays:
Season to Date: 23-9-2 (72%)
Last 3 Weeks: 5-3-1 (63%) ----> 4-1-1 (80%) Last 2 Weeks
Last Week: 2-1 (67%%)
Week 10:
NE-3.5
NYJ-8.5
Hou+1 (Bodog)
Sunday AM Update: NE and Hou are system plays, NYJ is not (but my system does lean towards NYJ, just not enough to make it a system play).
NOTE: I am still analyzing the evening game - Philly v NYG, so check back later.
NE-3.5
Teams who lost back to back games to divisional teams and now play their 3rd divisional opponent as a road underdog of less than 7 points are 0-6 ATS and SU since 2000, failing to cover an average +5 line and losing by 14.
The Patriots are 5-2-1 since 2001 as a divisional home favorite of fewer than 1 TD. Their only loss on a spread lower than 6 was in 2002 to the NYJ, when the Jets had Pennington, L. Coles, S. Moss and Curtis Martin
The Bills are 0-6 ATS since 1997 on the road when they suffered a 10+ point ATS the week before to a divisional opponent.
Buffalo has not won in NE since 2000, and came within 4 points only once in those 7 games played from 2000 to 2007. It was a game where NE fumbled on the first play and it was returned for a TD by the Bills, and the Bills scored only 1 offensive TD, losing by 2 points.
This game features two teams who are tied at 5-3 and in 1st place of their division, but have taken dramatically different paths the last few weeks. Buffalo is in the heart of its divisional battle, having just played and lost to both Miami and the Jets. On the other side, the Patriots have not played a divisional game in since Week 3 in September. Since that point, a huge home loss to the Dolphins, the Patriots had a bye, a 2 week trip to the West Coast, a couple of home wins and a close road loss to the rival Colts.
Trends specifically related to their situation: the first of three straight divisional games for the Patriots, and the second and last of their back to back home stands of the year, and just off a Colts game.
The Patriots are 4-1 ATS when playing the first of back to back divisional games since 2002 where they are favored by less than 1 TD.
The Patriots are 8-1-1 ATS and 9-1 SU since 2000 when playing in their first of back to back home games prior to week 16.
The Patriots are 3-0 ATS since 2002 after facing the Colts if they are favored by fewer than 10 points.
Debunking a trend: The trend is that Buffalo is 10-3 ATS after playing the NY Jets since 2001, and are 6-0 ATS after losing to the Jets. Seems strong. But looking at that 10-3 number, only 5 of those 13 games were against another divisional opponent. Of those 5 games, 4 were against Miami, 3 of which were at home, 2 of which were in the last few weeks of the season (read: COLD in Buffalo). If I told you that of the 5 games after facing the Jets, Buffalo covered 3 and lost ATS on 2, can you guess which 3 they covered? If you guessed the 3 home games, you’d be right. Once they traveled to Miami, and once to NE. In those two games they averaged 7 points scored and allowed 32.
According to some press clippings, Bills coach Dick Jauron mentioned that his team has had trouble with 3-4 defenses the last two weeks in losses to the Dolphins and Jets. In both games, Buffalo was bothered by good nose tackle play. The Pats have a good one in Vince Wilfork, and although he was limited in practice due to a toe injury, I have not heard that he will be ruled out.
The Bills meanwhile will be without 4 starters:
Starting right guard Brad Butler (left knee sprain), starting defensive end Aaron Schobel (foot), starting strong safety Donte Whitner (separated shoulder), No. 2 receiver Josh Reed (ankle) and nickel back Ashton Youboty (plantar fasciitis) have all been ruled out for Buffalo.
The only player of those five who is missing his first week is SS Whitner. But Reed is only missing his 2nd game and Butler his third.
I look for NE to start their 3 game divisional stand in strong fashion, as a loss would drop them into last place in the division, as both NYJ and Mia are 2-1 in the AFC East, and the Pats are 1-1. Despite the media claiming this as a must win for Buffalo, it is just as much of a must win for the Patriots, especially when you consider that 2 of its 3 remaining divisional games after Sunday are on the road. (I hate the rhetoric of “must win” games)
It would be a huge win for Buffalo and while this most likely will be a close game, the main chance I see for Buffalo to pull it out relates to their special teams: be it a return by Parrish, a fake punt, long FG conversions or just top notch field position punting by Moorman, I think the hopes of a Buffalo cover will lie w/ the special teams.
I would be more satisfied if you could get a -3 instead of a -3.5, as this game could be close at the end. But I will list NE as -3.5 as my official play and hope it comes through for us. Monitor the line in this one. Outside chance you can get -3 for better juice tomorrow than you can today. Line has been moving that way.
NYJ-8.5
Line note: I see an 8, several 8.5s, and the rest 9s. Get the best line you can but I will use the 8.5 for grading purposes.
NYJ are 4-0 ATS since 1998 after upsetting a divisional opponent as a road underdog and then returning home to face a non-divisional opponent as a favorite, covering an average 6.5 point line and winning by 16.
NFL teams are 21-8 ATS since 2003 if they previously won as a road underdog in a divisional game and are returning home as a favorite to a non-divisional opponent and it is after week 4 of the season. This trend went 5-2 ATS last year.
If they are favored by more than a touchdown, they are 9-2 ATS since 2003, covering an average 9 point line and winning by 15.
Teams who lost as a divisional home underdog and failed to cover the spread and are now on the road as underdogs in a non-divisional game are 10-22 ATS after week 8 of the season.
Ignoring the week and looking all season long, these teams are on a 2-9 ATS streak since week 10 of the 2005 season.
Under Mangini, the Jets are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS as non-divisional home favorites, covering an average 7 point line and winning by an average of 12 points.
The Jets are 3-1 ATS under Mangini the week prior to facing the Patriots
Teams who just won as a road divisional underdog and are now favored at home vs. a non-divisional opponent are 24-10 ATS since 2003 including 27-7 SU.
If they are favored by more than 7, they are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS, covering an average 9 point line and winning by an average of 15 points. Since 2005 this number improves to 7-1 ATS and 8-0 SU.
The Jets are 6-2 ATS in a non-divisional sandwich situation since 2002, where they play a non-divisional opponent between two divisional opponents. Under Mangini, they are 3-1 ATS.
The Rams are 0-4 ATS and SU when playing a non-divisional opponent, sandwiched between two divisional opponents, since 2000. As underdogs, they failed to cover an average 8 point line by an additional 8 points, losing SU by 16.
The Rams are 0-3 ATS after losing at home to a divisional team and then going on the road vs. a non-divisional team as the underdog since 2005.
The Rams are 0-10 ATS since 1998 on the road after a game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays.
The Rams are allowing the 2nd most points in the NFL, and though they have played some potent offenses: Ari, NYG, Phi, they also have played the 25th ranked (in scoring offense) Redskins, the 26th ranked Seahawks and the 22nd ranked Patriots. And they allowed those low scoring teams (20 ppg on avg) to put up an average of 26 points.
When facing teams that can put up points easily (Ari #1, NYG #2, Phi #5) the Rams were torched, even though 2 of the 3 were at home. Final scores averaging 38-10, failing to cover +7 point lines by 21 points.
And let’s not forget their offensive woes. They are scoring the 3rd fewest points in the NFL. Ignoring the Dallas game, they are putting up 13 ppg, the worst in the NFL, despite playing teams that on average allow 21 points.
Enter the Jets. On defense, ignoring the MNF disaster in SD, they are allowing 20 ppg, good for 11th in the NFL. On offense, they are 8th in the NFL in ppg.
I see a Jets team who has regained their step up in Buffalo after the near disaster at home vs. KC, and are looking to get a solid performance in front of their home fans, to erase their memory of the KC game and to prime themselves for their trip to NE. Following the trip to NE, the Jets have a road trip to the undefeated Titans. The going gets no easier than this game vs. the Rams, and you could say they overlook the Rams but for the fact that the Jets have great records in non-divisional sandwich games and great records prior to facing the rival Patriots.
Adding to the problem for the Rams is they will be starting Kenneth Darby out of Penn State, a 2nd year player w/ only two rushing attempts in the NFL. The Rams at least had the 17th ranked rushing offense (ypr) and needed every bit of SJax when facing the #4 ranked rush D of the Jets (ypr). The Jets will really have to turn to the air, and they do typically have some big gainers to Avery, but I don’t have confidence it will be enough for them to hang with the Jets. The Jets will be going up against the #29th ranked rush D with their #4 ranked rush offense (ypr) and making matters worse, the Rams sport the #28 ranked passing D (ypg).
I believe the Jets have the capability of covering this 8.5 point line. The big key in my mind for this battle will be Farve and his interceptions. When the Rams defense gets 2 or more interceptions they are 2-0 ATS. When the Rams get 1 or 0 interceptions, they are 1-5 ATS (the lone cover being the Was game where they scored their only TD on a fumble return for TD). When Farve throws 2 or more interceptions, the Jets are 1-3 ATS. When Farve throws 1 or 0 interceptions, the Jets are 3-1 ATS. We know Farve is a gunslinger, but the only games the Rams have gotten 2 or more interceptions were against Brad Johnson in his first start and against the first year starter Matt Cassell.
I have only made 2 plays out of the 34 I’ve issued this season on favorites giving more than 7 points. I am 1-1 on those games, and have not done it since Week 3. I hate to do it. But I feel this is the right spot. P.S. Teasing down the Jets is something you may consider if you refuse to swallow 8.5 points. The only thing I can tell you that may not make you feel as bad:
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Home teams who are favored by more than a FG but less than 10 points between weeks 5 and 15 are 35-3 SU and 28-9-1 ATS since 2006, on average winning by 15 points.
If the underdog lost the week before and failed to cover in the loss, the favorite is 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS. If the underdog lost as a dog the week before, the favorite is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS.
If the favorite won as an underdog the week before, they are 8-0 AU and 7-1 ATS.
If the favorite won the week before and the underdog lost and the game is non-divisional, the favorite is 6-0 SU and ATS, winning by an average of 20 points.
Last season, the NFC West was 5-13 ATS as a road underdog in non-divisional games. Worst in the NFL. This season they are 4-7 ATS. Worst in the NFL. They are also 1-6-1 ATS if the line is over 8 points, and the only cover was Sea @ TB earlier this season by ½ point.
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Hou +1 (Bodog)
Still like it as a pick if that's what you have at your outlet. Not any trends for this one, as it recently was added due to line movement from earlier in the week. This is a pure system play that I'm tailing into a personal play. Houston's defense is not very strong, but they have a dynamic offense which Baltimore will of course make one-dimensional. However, I believe that the advantage Houston will have that Cleveland, Oakland and Miami did not have is a much stronger downfield passing attack. Baltimore had a big road victory over the rival Browns, and then travel to the defending Super Bowl Champion Giants next weekend. Houston, meanwhile, has played well at home recently, with wins over Miami and a blowout over the hapless Bengals. I certainly don't forsee Flacco having the same problems he did in Indy, and Flacco is 3-1 ATS on the road this season. But I am putting my trust in the Houston offense to overcome what their defense may lack.
Houston has lost only once ATS since 2004 when they are playing at home and they are either a pick a dog of no more than than 3 points. And that one loss was the crazy Colts game earlier this year w/ 21 4th quarter Colts points. I rode Baltimore the past two weeks, but this week, I'll take the single point and pull for the Texans to get one home win prior to heading on the road for back to back away games.
12 PM EST Line Update: Hou line has gotten hammered, moved @ Bodog from +1 to -1, and is also at -2 at some outlets.
Records of Personal Plays:
Season to Date: 23-9-2 (72%)
Last 3 Weeks: 5-3-1 (63%) ----> 4-1-1 (80%) Last 2 Weeks
Last Week: 2-1 (67%%)
Week 10:
NE-3.5
NYJ-8.5
Hou+1 (Bodog)
Sunday AM Update: NE and Hou are system plays, NYJ is not (but my system does lean towards NYJ, just not enough to make it a system play).
NOTE: I am still analyzing the evening game - Philly v NYG, so check back later.
NE-3.5
Teams who lost back to back games to divisional teams and now play their 3rd divisional opponent as a road underdog of less than 7 points are 0-6 ATS and SU since 2000, failing to cover an average +5 line and losing by 14.
The Patriots are 5-2-1 since 2001 as a divisional home favorite of fewer than 1 TD. Their only loss on a spread lower than 6 was in 2002 to the NYJ, when the Jets had Pennington, L. Coles, S. Moss and Curtis Martin
The Bills are 0-6 ATS since 1997 on the road when they suffered a 10+ point ATS the week before to a divisional opponent.
Buffalo has not won in NE since 2000, and came within 4 points only once in those 7 games played from 2000 to 2007. It was a game where NE fumbled on the first play and it was returned for a TD by the Bills, and the Bills scored only 1 offensive TD, losing by 2 points.
This game features two teams who are tied at 5-3 and in 1st place of their division, but have taken dramatically different paths the last few weeks. Buffalo is in the heart of its divisional battle, having just played and lost to both Miami and the Jets. On the other side, the Patriots have not played a divisional game in since Week 3 in September. Since that point, a huge home loss to the Dolphins, the Patriots had a bye, a 2 week trip to the West Coast, a couple of home wins and a close road loss to the rival Colts.
Trends specifically related to their situation: the first of three straight divisional games for the Patriots, and the second and last of their back to back home stands of the year, and just off a Colts game.
The Patriots are 4-1 ATS when playing the first of back to back divisional games since 2002 where they are favored by less than 1 TD.
The Patriots are 8-1-1 ATS and 9-1 SU since 2000 when playing in their first of back to back home games prior to week 16.
The Patriots are 3-0 ATS since 2002 after facing the Colts if they are favored by fewer than 10 points.
Debunking a trend: The trend is that Buffalo is 10-3 ATS after playing the NY Jets since 2001, and are 6-0 ATS after losing to the Jets. Seems strong. But looking at that 10-3 number, only 5 of those 13 games were against another divisional opponent. Of those 5 games, 4 were against Miami, 3 of which were at home, 2 of which were in the last few weeks of the season (read: COLD in Buffalo). If I told you that of the 5 games after facing the Jets, Buffalo covered 3 and lost ATS on 2, can you guess which 3 they covered? If you guessed the 3 home games, you’d be right. Once they traveled to Miami, and once to NE. In those two games they averaged 7 points scored and allowed 32.
According to some press clippings, Bills coach Dick Jauron mentioned that his team has had trouble with 3-4 defenses the last two weeks in losses to the Dolphins and Jets. In both games, Buffalo was bothered by good nose tackle play. The Pats have a good one in Vince Wilfork, and although he was limited in practice due to a toe injury, I have not heard that he will be ruled out.
The Bills meanwhile will be without 4 starters:
Starting right guard Brad Butler (left knee sprain), starting defensive end Aaron Schobel (foot), starting strong safety Donte Whitner (separated shoulder), No. 2 receiver Josh Reed (ankle) and nickel back Ashton Youboty (plantar fasciitis) have all been ruled out for Buffalo.
The only player of those five who is missing his first week is SS Whitner. But Reed is only missing his 2nd game and Butler his third.
I look for NE to start their 3 game divisional stand in strong fashion, as a loss would drop them into last place in the division, as both NYJ and Mia are 2-1 in the AFC East, and the Pats are 1-1. Despite the media claiming this as a must win for Buffalo, it is just as much of a must win for the Patriots, especially when you consider that 2 of its 3 remaining divisional games after Sunday are on the road. (I hate the rhetoric of “must win” games)
It would be a huge win for Buffalo and while this most likely will be a close game, the main chance I see for Buffalo to pull it out relates to their special teams: be it a return by Parrish, a fake punt, long FG conversions or just top notch field position punting by Moorman, I think the hopes of a Buffalo cover will lie w/ the special teams.
I would be more satisfied if you could get a -3 instead of a -3.5, as this game could be close at the end. But I will list NE as -3.5 as my official play and hope it comes through for us. Monitor the line in this one. Outside chance you can get -3 for better juice tomorrow than you can today. Line has been moving that way.
NYJ-8.5
Line note: I see an 8, several 8.5s, and the rest 9s. Get the best line you can but I will use the 8.5 for grading purposes.
NYJ are 4-0 ATS since 1998 after upsetting a divisional opponent as a road underdog and then returning home to face a non-divisional opponent as a favorite, covering an average 6.5 point line and winning by 16.
NFL teams are 21-8 ATS since 2003 if they previously won as a road underdog in a divisional game and are returning home as a favorite to a non-divisional opponent and it is after week 4 of the season. This trend went 5-2 ATS last year.
If they are favored by more than a touchdown, they are 9-2 ATS since 2003, covering an average 9 point line and winning by 15.
Teams who lost as a divisional home underdog and failed to cover the spread and are now on the road as underdogs in a non-divisional game are 10-22 ATS after week 8 of the season.
Ignoring the week and looking all season long, these teams are on a 2-9 ATS streak since week 10 of the 2005 season.
Under Mangini, the Jets are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS as non-divisional home favorites, covering an average 7 point line and winning by an average of 12 points.
The Jets are 3-1 ATS under Mangini the week prior to facing the Patriots
Teams who just won as a road divisional underdog and are now favored at home vs. a non-divisional opponent are 24-10 ATS since 2003 including 27-7 SU.
If they are favored by more than 7, they are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS, covering an average 9 point line and winning by an average of 15 points. Since 2005 this number improves to 7-1 ATS and 8-0 SU.
The Jets are 6-2 ATS in a non-divisional sandwich situation since 2002, where they play a non-divisional opponent between two divisional opponents. Under Mangini, they are 3-1 ATS.
The Rams are 0-4 ATS and SU when playing a non-divisional opponent, sandwiched between two divisional opponents, since 2000. As underdogs, they failed to cover an average 8 point line by an additional 8 points, losing SU by 16.
The Rams are 0-3 ATS after losing at home to a divisional team and then going on the road vs. a non-divisional team as the underdog since 2005.
The Rams are 0-10 ATS since 1998 on the road after a game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays.
The Rams are allowing the 2nd most points in the NFL, and though they have played some potent offenses: Ari, NYG, Phi, they also have played the 25th ranked (in scoring offense) Redskins, the 26th ranked Seahawks and the 22nd ranked Patriots. And they allowed those low scoring teams (20 ppg on avg) to put up an average of 26 points.
When facing teams that can put up points easily (Ari #1, NYG #2, Phi #5) the Rams were torched, even though 2 of the 3 were at home. Final scores averaging 38-10, failing to cover +7 point lines by 21 points.
And let’s not forget their offensive woes. They are scoring the 3rd fewest points in the NFL. Ignoring the Dallas game, they are putting up 13 ppg, the worst in the NFL, despite playing teams that on average allow 21 points.
Enter the Jets. On defense, ignoring the MNF disaster in SD, they are allowing 20 ppg, good for 11th in the NFL. On offense, they are 8th in the NFL in ppg.
I see a Jets team who has regained their step up in Buffalo after the near disaster at home vs. KC, and are looking to get a solid performance in front of their home fans, to erase their memory of the KC game and to prime themselves for their trip to NE. Following the trip to NE, the Jets have a road trip to the undefeated Titans. The going gets no easier than this game vs. the Rams, and you could say they overlook the Rams but for the fact that the Jets have great records in non-divisional sandwich games and great records prior to facing the rival Patriots.
Adding to the problem for the Rams is they will be starting Kenneth Darby out of Penn State, a 2nd year player w/ only two rushing attempts in the NFL. The Rams at least had the 17th ranked rushing offense (ypr) and needed every bit of SJax when facing the #4 ranked rush D of the Jets (ypr). The Jets will really have to turn to the air, and they do typically have some big gainers to Avery, but I don’t have confidence it will be enough for them to hang with the Jets. The Jets will be going up against the #29th ranked rush D with their #4 ranked rush offense (ypr) and making matters worse, the Rams sport the #28 ranked passing D (ypg).
I believe the Jets have the capability of covering this 8.5 point line. The big key in my mind for this battle will be Farve and his interceptions. When the Rams defense gets 2 or more interceptions they are 2-0 ATS. When the Rams get 1 or 0 interceptions, they are 1-5 ATS (the lone cover being the Was game where they scored their only TD on a fumble return for TD). When Farve throws 2 or more interceptions, the Jets are 1-3 ATS. When Farve throws 1 or 0 interceptions, the Jets are 3-1 ATS. We know Farve is a gunslinger, but the only games the Rams have gotten 2 or more interceptions were against Brad Johnson in his first start and against the first year starter Matt Cassell.
I have only made 2 plays out of the 34 I’ve issued this season on favorites giving more than 7 points. I am 1-1 on those games, and have not done it since Week 3. I hate to do it. But I feel this is the right spot. P.S. Teasing down the Jets is something you may consider if you refuse to swallow 8.5 points. The only thing I can tell you that may not make you feel as bad:
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Home teams who are favored by more than a FG but less than 10 points between weeks 5 and 15 are 35-3 SU and 28-9-1 ATS since 2006, on average winning by 15 points.
If the underdog lost the week before and failed to cover in the loss, the favorite is 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS. If the underdog lost as a dog the week before, the favorite is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS.
If the favorite won as an underdog the week before, they are 8-0 AU and 7-1 ATS.
If the favorite won the week before and the underdog lost and the game is non-divisional, the favorite is 6-0 SU and ATS, winning by an average of 20 points.
Last season, the NFC West was 5-13 ATS as a road underdog in non-divisional games. Worst in the NFL. This season they are 4-7 ATS. Worst in the NFL. They are also 1-6-1 ATS if the line is over 8 points, and the only cover was Sea @ TB earlier this season by ½ point.
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Hou +1 (Bodog)
Still like it as a pick if that's what you have at your outlet. Not any trends for this one, as it recently was added due to line movement from earlier in the week. This is a pure system play that I'm tailing into a personal play. Houston's defense is not very strong, but they have a dynamic offense which Baltimore will of course make one-dimensional. However, I believe that the advantage Houston will have that Cleveland, Oakland and Miami did not have is a much stronger downfield passing attack. Baltimore had a big road victory over the rival Browns, and then travel to the defending Super Bowl Champion Giants next weekend. Houston, meanwhile, has played well at home recently, with wins over Miami and a blowout over the hapless Bengals. I certainly don't forsee Flacco having the same problems he did in Indy, and Flacco is 3-1 ATS on the road this season. But I am putting my trust in the Houston offense to overcome what their defense may lack.
Houston has lost only once ATS since 2004 when they are playing at home and they are either a pick a dog of no more than than 3 points. And that one loss was the crazy Colts game earlier this year w/ 21 4th quarter Colts points. I rode Baltimore the past two weeks, but this week, I'll take the single point and pull for the Texans to get one home win prior to heading on the road for back to back away games.
12 PM EST Line Update: Hou line has gotten hammered, moved @ Bodog from +1 to -1, and is also at -2 at some outlets.
JEFFERSONSPORTS 5-2 YESTERDAY
NFL run now 29-11 run (73%)
ALL FOOTBALL RUN 57-35-2 (62%) 4-2 yest
NBA 1-0 yest
NFL
CHICAGO+3.5 -125
NEW ENGLAND-3 -125 (if you can't buy to 3 play small)
ATLANTA-1.5
MINNESOTA-2
HOUSTON-2
SAN DIEGO-14 -125 (if you can't buy to 14 play small)
PHILADELPHIA-2.5 (released earlier)
NFL run now 29-11 run (73%)
ALL FOOTBALL RUN 57-35-2 (62%) 4-2 yest
NBA 1-0 yest
NFL
CHICAGO+3.5 -125
NEW ENGLAND-3 -125 (if you can't buy to 3 play small)
ATLANTA-1.5
MINNESOTA-2
HOUSTON-2
SAN DIEGO-14 -125 (if you can't buy to 14 play small)
PHILADELPHIA-2.5 (released earlier)
