Service Plays Sunday 11/15/09

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Tony Weston
SUNDAY'S PLAYS 40 Dime Patriots
10 Dime Broncos

Patriots at Colts
PATRIOTS - The Indianapolis Colts are without Bob Sanders and Marlin Jackson and have two rookies starting at corner and now get to battle a New England Patriots team that is on fire lately.

The Colts are laying about 2 1/2 points, depending on where you’re playing this, and will fail to cover and be in a position to lose outright to the visiting Pats.

New England rolls into this game having gone 4-2 ATS its last 6 games and having destroyed its opponents the last two weeks, outscoring teams in that three-game stretch 121-24, or 40.3-8, on average.

The Colts, on the other hand, are lucky to still be undefeated as they’ve survived huge scares the last two weeks. Two weeks ago, down 14-9 at home against the San Francisco 49ers, the Colts needed 9 second-half points to pull off the win, but still failed to cover as a 13-point favorite.

Then last week, down 17-13 at home against the Texans, the Colts needed late heroics from Peyton Manning and Joseph Addai to pull out the 20-17 win, but again, failed to cover as a 7 1/2 point favorite.

The Patriots are miles ahead of the Texans and 49ers and are good enough to keep the Colts down if they have them in that position.

It’ll be a great game and one in which the Patriots will flirt with the outright win. Take the points and take New England on the road in this one.


Broncos at Redskins
BRONCOS - Sure the Denver Broncos have looked pretty bad the last couple of weeks, getting beat up 30-7 at the Baltimore Ravens then getting humiliated at home on Monday night 28-10 against the Steelers.

From 6-0 SU and ATS, the Broncos are now 6-2 SU and ATS, but will still get over easily on the road at the Redskins.

While the Broncos have had their share of struggles the last two weeks, at least they haven’t struggled all season long like the Redskins, who are just 2-6 SU this year and have covered in just one game.

The Redskins have lost four consecutive games SU and have failed to cover in three straight. During this three game non-cover streak the Redskins have lost by an average of 10.6 points per game, including last week’s 31-17 loss at Atlanta as a 9-point underdog.

Consider, too, the Redskins have not covered in any of their 4 home games this year. While Washington is 2-2 SU at home, those first two wins came against the then winless Rams and Buccaneers. But the last two home games have seen the Redskins lose by an average of 9 points per game.

Things aren’t getting any better today as the Broncos will hand Washington another home loss.




BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------GL GUYS:103631605
 
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B LANG

30 DIME - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - If you can't beat the Raiders in Oakland then for my dollar you are not beating the Chargers in San Diego.

You can slowly see the implosion of the Eagles happening right before your very eyes. Every year they do it, and two people are responsible.

Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb.

First of all, the Eagles are off 3 divisional games in a row versus the Redskins, Giants and Cowboys. Now they travel west off those games and a loss last week at home to Dallas.

Next, for the Eagles to win McNabb has to outplay Philip Rivers and folks, as I see it that is not happening today.

I had the Chargers as the 25 dime winner last Sunday and they led the Giants in New York the whole way until a big turnover in the 4th quarter by Rivers gave the Giants the lead only to watch Rivers work the 2 minute drill to perfection and deliver the win.

I feel the Chargers are improving every week and winning the AFC West is not out of the question based on the current struggles of the Denver Broncos.

To put it bluntly, I don't trust McNabb or Andy Reid at all in this situation. Not one bit, especially after their implosion at Oakland. To lose to the Raiders 13-9 just goes to show you how bad this Eagles team can be.

This line opened up Chargers -2 and as of Saturday night it had moved down to a pick'em. That is fine with me. Let these people bet the Eagles here. Not me.

15 DIME - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - (if line is 3 you buy the 1/2 and get 3 1/2, if line is 2 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and get 3.) - Colts are going down.

Probably going to be some line moves on this game as the day progresses,so if it's moves down to 2 nothing I can do about that. If it's 2 1/2 you buy to +3 and if it's 3 you buy the 1/2 to 3 1/2.

Now, watching the Bears-Niners game on Thursday night I was just flabbergasted at how bad the Niners looked. Even with Jay Cutler giving them 5 interceptions, they still looked like a team stuck in the mud.

I am talking about a Niners team that 3 weeks ago went into Indy and gave the Colts all they could handle, and what is even more amazing about the Colts struggle in that game was the fact they were coming off a bye week.

Then last week the Colts struggled all day long to put away a Texans team, and if not for a missed 42 yarder at the end of regulation by Houston to force OT, Indy might very well have lost that game.

The bottom line is this; you start getting into the 7th or 8th week of the season you are not supposed to be struggling with the Niners and Texans of the league, you are supposed to be putting people away.

Colts just aren't doing that and against a team like New England, it will come back to haunt you and I believe it will haunt Indy today.

I love what the Patriots are doing right now having won their last 3 games by double-digits and granted, it was over Tennessee 59-0, Tampa Bay 35-7, and Miami 27-17 but truth be told, I don't see them struggling to put these teams away like Indy is.

Eventually these injuries Indy has on defense is going to catch up to you. You can't be down to your 5th and 6th string DB's and not have a guy like Tom Brady pick you apart and rest assured folks, Alex Smith and Matt Schaub are not to be mistaken for Tom Brady.

This game tonight comes down to match ups across the board and those matchups favor the Patriots. Simple as that.

In their 7 meetings head to head, Tom Brady is 5-2 versus Peyton Manning and believe me, it's as personal as it gets here folks. Very personal.

Lastly, I really want you to examine who the Colts have beaten. Jags to open the year, and the Dolphins on Monday night in a game they never should have won. Arizona, Seattle, Tennessee, Rams, Niners and Houston.

There are no Bill Belichick and Tom Brady tandems in there. At least not the way I see it.

Two teams heading in opposite directions right now, with the Patriots playing great ball and with all their injuries, the Colts are struggling and meeting the wrong team at the wrong time.

10 DIME - DETROIT LIONS - They fight hard, I will give them that much, and I expect them to fight here.

In the first meeting between these two the Lions led most of the first half before a late Vikings touchdown made it 10-7.

Lions were driving first drive of the 3rd quarter when running back Smith fumbled and it then opened up the flood gates.

Detroit actually matches up really well with the Vikings, and have played them tough the last 2 years. Catching this many points is just to much wood for the Vikings to cover.

Lastly, as a favorite of 14 points of more in his career, Brett Farve is 1-14-1 ATS. Only 1 cover my friends and in my mind, no way he gets number 2 today.

FREE SELECTION - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
 

ugk

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it was a banner day IMO - at least for the good cappers

fazzini won with KY
Patron won with Arkansas
Garret won with South Carolina

Deano's split Tenn/Stanford is hardly a nut-kicking

i'm afraid to depsoit all the money at one time for fear that the IRS is going to come knockin'...

beyond that, every tout on the board had Oregon.

there were a handful of plays on Pittsburgh yesterday, too. i would hardly call that "doing poorly."

if, pittsburgh covers, they would have needed to bring an armored truck to drop off my money

if you're referring to the bad cappers that made huge plays (and lost), well, hard to complain about that.

I meant that there were quite a few GOY losses. If I were them I would just stop with the GOY--It's a jinx.:laugh:
 
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DUNKEL NHL

San Jose at Chicago
The Blackhawks look to build on their 12-3 record in their last 15 games versus the Pacific Division. Chicago is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-125)

Game 51-52: Minnesota at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.632; Carolina 10.501
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-115); Over

Game 53-54: Edmonton at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.745; Atlanta 11.854
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta (-150); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-150); Under

Game 55-56: San Jose at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.370; Chicago 12.570
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-125); Over
 
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DUNKEL NBA

Houston at LA Lakers
The Lakers look to bounce back from their loss in Denver and build on their 8-1 ATS record in their last 9 games following a SU loss. Los Angeles is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-9)

Game 701-702: Dallas at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 125.245; Detroit 119.883
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 5 1/2; 178
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 4 1/2; 184 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-4 1/2); Under

Game 703-704: LA Clippers at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 113.564; Oklahoma City 118.542
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5; 176
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6; 179
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+6); Under

Game 705-706: Toronto at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 115.819; Phoenix 126.588
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 11; 228
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 7; 231
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-7); Under

Game 707-708: Houston at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 120.576; LA Lakers 131.432
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 11; 213
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 9; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-9); Over
 
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DUNKEL CFL

Edmonton at Calgary
The Stampeders look to take advantage of an Edmonton team that is 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Calgary. Calgary is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-7)

Game 261-262: BC at Hamilton
Dunkel Ratings: BC 110.493; Hamilton 111.327
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 1; 55 1/2
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 3; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (+3); Over

Game 263-264: Edmonton at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 103.435; Calgary 116.131
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 12 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Calgary by 7; 54
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-7); Under
 

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Stephen Nover

Stephen Nover
Sunday Sweep
75 Dime SAINTS
30 Dime DOLPHINS
15 Dime OVER Chiefs/Raiders


75 Dime SAINTS - There's a myth that you can't get value when laying double-digits in the NFL.

I find plenty of value laying two touchdowns with the Saints against the Rams in this matchup. It doesn't matter that St. Louis was idle last week or is at home.

There's no comparison between these two clubs. The Saints certainly aren't going to be bothered being on the road against a team getting luke-warm crowd support, while playing in their natural dome setting on carpet.

The Rams have eight touchdowns in eight games. The Saints have scored seven touchdowns - on defense. The Rams are averaging 9.6 points per game. New Orleans is scoring at a record 37.9 points per clip. The Rams rank 29th in scoring defense. It's not hard to do the math.

Unlike some other first-year NFL coaches, I like the Rams' Steve Spagnuolo. But he inherited maybe the worst talent in the league. His battered secondary has no chance to contain Drew Brees and his multiple targets and improved running attack. There are reasons why St. Louis has won only one of its last 18 games.

The Saints own huge edges at nearly every position. Steven Jackson is the Rams' only playmaker, but he's not much help when his team falls behind big. Jackson is having a good year statistically, but has managed only one touchdown with defenses keying on him and his team constantly trailing by wide margins.

Marc Bulger has been no help with a 68.2 quarterback rating and only three touchdown passes.

Sean Payton has a history of crushing inferior opponents. This is just the Saints' third game against a bad team. In the other two, they beat the Lions by 18 points and the Bills by 20 on the road.

The Saints are 16-6 (72 percent) against the spead the past 22 times they've been chalk.

30 Dime DOLPHINS - The Buccaneers' surprising upset win at home against Green Bay last Sunday in Josh Freeman's NFL debut as a starting quarterback has helped keep this line down.

That's fine with me because I see the Dolphins, a much superior team, burying the Buccaneers. Keep in mind about last week that Green Bay imploded against the Buccaneers, giving up a touchdown on an interception return, a touchdown on a blocked punt and another score following a long kickoff return.

The Dolphins aren't going to self-destruct like that at home against a weak Tampa Bay defense that ranks 30th against the run and 29th overall.

Miami has a run-oriented, physical offense that can pound the undersized Buccaneers while also effectively keeping them off balance with trickery from the wildcat formation.

The Dolphins are just 3-5 this season after going 11-5 last year because their schedule has been much stronger and they've faced five elite quarterbacks - Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan.

Freeman hardly fits into in that class. This will be his first road start. He's not an NFL starting-caliber quarterback yet. This game will show that. Freeman's preseason rating was 41 percent and that was operating against vanilla second and third string defenses.

Raheem Morris is overmatched as a head coach. The Buccaneers just ended their 11-game losing streak. They don't know how to handle success, which hasn't come often since they are 3-10 against the spread in their past 13 games.

15 Dime OVER Chiefs/Raiders - Statistically speaking, Kansas City and Oakland don't offer much in the way of offense. They rank in the bottom three in total offense. The Raiders average less than 10 points per game.

That's why the linesmaker has set an 'over/under' of 36 1/2 on this matchup. Going over this total isn't difficult with good offenses or bad defenses.

The Chiefs rank 30th in total defense and 30th versus the pass. They have the second-fewest sacks in the NFL with 10. That's a bad defense.

I'm not a fan of JaMarcus Russell. I don't know anyone who is. But the Raiders have speed at receiver that can take advantage of Kansas City's slow secondary. The Raiders also are finally getting back some of their key offensive players following their bye week. The list includes running back Darren McFadden, supposed No. 1 wide receiver Chaz Schilens perhaps their best offensive lineman, Robert Gallery.

McFadden and wideouts Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey are all speedsters in the 4.4 to 4.3 40-yard speed range. Kansas City's secondary can't match that.

The Chiefs piled up 409 yards when they met the Raiders in Week 2. Since then, Kansas City has opened its offense more using no-huddle and cutting Larry Johnson. Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith bring an outside dimension to the Chiefs' running attack something they lacked with the washed-up Johnson.

Kansas City's offensive line also has gotten healthier with the return of left tackle Branden Albert and center Rudy Niswanger. The Chiefs have added veteran Chris Chambers to their receiving corps. He gives Matt Cassel another tall red zone target to go with reliable Dwayne Bowe.

The Chiefs had a good week of practice. Their coach, Todd Haley, said it was their best Friday practice of the season. That could translate into enough points to help get over this low total.

PAID & CONFIRMED.
GL!!
 
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DCI
Season
ATS: 86-55 (.610)

Dallas 95, DETROIT 94
OKLAHOMA CITY 103, L.A. Clippers 92
PHOENIX 115, Toronto 106
L.A. LAKERS 104, Houston 95
 
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DCI
Season: 100-66 (.602)

Minnesota vs. CAROLINA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ATLANTA 4, Edmonton 3
San Jose vs. CHICAGO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
 
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Billy Oregano52
NFL Totals Contest ranked last at #1054
41-70 YTD record

He picked Tampa Under and Denver Under
 
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Ron Jaworski

87 - 42 SU YTD


No 34
STL 16

TB 10
MIA 21

Det 13
MIN 31

JAC 13
NYJ 24

BUF 13
TEN 17

CIN 16
PIT 20

DEN 20
WAS 17

ATL 17
CAR 14

KC 16
OAK 17

SEA 21
ARI 28

DAL 24
GNB 27

PHI 20
SD 24

NE 21
IND 17

BAL 35
CLE 10
 

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WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club

Sunday, November 15, 2009

6*Panthers (+1½) over Falcons
1:00 PM -- Bank of America Stadium

4*Redskins (+3½)
over Broncos
1:00 PM -- FedEx Field
 

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