Gina's NFL Predictions
Sunday, November 14th, 1:00 p.m. est.
Detroit Lions (1-7) at Minnesota Vikings (7-1)
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome - Minneapolis, Minnesota
Go with the rested Vikings. Minnesota has won 14 of the last 15 meetings and Brett Favre will go for his seventh straight win over the toothless Lions.
Minnesota Vikings -16½
Sunday, November 14th, 1:00 p.m. est.
New Orleans Saints (8-0) at St. Louis Rams (1-7)
Edward Jones Dome - St. Louis, Missouri
Go with the Saints in a lopsided outcome. The Saints are averaging 37.9 points per game, while the hopeless Rams are the leagues worst at 9.6 points per game. St. Louis is a nasty 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games against New Orleans at home
New Orleans Saints -13½
Sunday, November 14th, 8:20 p.m. est.
New England Patriots (6-2) at Indianapolis Colts (8-0)
Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, Indiana
The Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 battles versus the Colts in Indianapolis. Go with the Brady Bunch in a close fight against Manning and his troops. The last three battles have been decided by 4 points or less. The Colts are a horrible 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.
New England Patriots +3
Sunday, November 14th, 1:00 p.m. est.
Detroit Lions (1-7) at Minnesota Vikings (7-1)
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome - Minneapolis, Minnesota
Go with the rested Vikings. Minnesota has won 14 of the last 15 meetings and Brett Favre will go for his seventh straight win over the toothless Lions.
Minnesota Vikings -16½
Sunday, November 14th, 1:00 p.m. est.
New Orleans Saints (8-0) at St. Louis Rams (1-7)
Edward Jones Dome - St. Louis, Missouri
Go with the Saints in a lopsided outcome. The Saints are averaging 37.9 points per game, while the hopeless Rams are the leagues worst at 9.6 points per game. St. Louis is a nasty 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games against New Orleans at home
New Orleans Saints -13½
Sunday, November 14th, 8:20 p.m. est.
New England Patriots (6-2) at Indianapolis Colts (8-0)
Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, Indiana
The Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 battles versus the Colts in Indianapolis. Go with the Brady Bunch in a close fight against Manning and his troops. The last three battles have been decided by 4 points or less. The Colts are a horrible 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.
New England Patriots +3
Mr A's
Sunday, November 15th, 2009 1:00 PM EST.
Detroit Lions (1-7) at Minnesota Vikings (7-1)
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome - Minneapolis, Minnesota
Favre and crew will have a field day against the Lions’ pathetic defense. Detroit is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games versus Minnesota.
Oddsmakers: Minnesota as a -16½ point home favorite with the total listed at 47½ 'over'.
Minnesota Vikings -16½
Sunday, November 15th, 2009 1:00 PM EST.
Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
Heinz Field - Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
The Steelers are playing sound. Look for Roethlisberger and crew to grab a home win against the Bengals. Pittsburgh is 7-2 against the spread in their last nine home games, 5-1 both straight-up and against the spread in its last six versus Cincinnati.
Oddsmakers: Pittsburgh as a -7 point home favorite with the total listed at 41½ 'over'.
Pittsburgh Steelers -7
Sunday, November 15th, 2009 4:15 PM EST.
Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (4-4)
Lambeau Field - Green Bay, Wisconsin
Look for a close battle. Take the home underdog. The home team in this series is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Oddsmakers: Dallas as a -3 point road favorite with the total listed at 47½ 'over'.
Green Bay Packers +3
Sunday, November 15th, 2009 1:00 PM EST.
Detroit Lions (1-7) at Minnesota Vikings (7-1)
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome - Minneapolis, Minnesota
Favre and crew will have a field day against the Lions’ pathetic defense. Detroit is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games versus Minnesota.
Oddsmakers: Minnesota as a -16½ point home favorite with the total listed at 47½ 'over'.
Minnesota Vikings -16½
Sunday, November 15th, 2009 1:00 PM EST.
Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
Heinz Field - Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
The Steelers are playing sound. Look for Roethlisberger and crew to grab a home win against the Bengals. Pittsburgh is 7-2 against the spread in their last nine home games, 5-1 both straight-up and against the spread in its last six versus Cincinnati.
Oddsmakers: Pittsburgh as a -7 point home favorite with the total listed at 41½ 'over'.
Pittsburgh Steelers -7
Sunday, November 15th, 2009 4:15 PM EST.
Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (4-4)
Lambeau Field - Green Bay, Wisconsin
Look for a close battle. Take the home underdog. The home team in this series is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Oddsmakers: Dallas as a -3 point road favorite with the total listed at 47½ 'over'.
Green Bay Packers +3
JB Computer Picks
Sunday, November 15th, 2009
Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 PM Carolina Panthers +2
Tampa Bay at Miami, 1:00 PM Miami Dolphins -10
Detroit at Minnesota, 1:00 PM Minnesota Vikings -17 ***
Denver at Washington, 1:00 PM Washington Redskins +3½
Buffalo at Tennessee, 1:00 PM Tennessee Titans -6½
New Orleans at St. Louis, 1:00 PM New Orleans Saints -13½
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM Cincinnati Bengals +7
Jacksonville at NY Jets, 1:00 PM New York Jets -7
Knsas City at Oakland, 4:05 PM Kansas City Chiefs +2
Seattle at Arizona, 4:15 PM Arizona Cardinals -8½
Dallas at Green Bay, 4:15 PM Green Bay Packers +3
Philadelphia at San Diego, 4:15 PM Philadelphia Eagles +2
New England at Indianapolis, 8:20 PM New England Patriots +3
Sunday, November 15th, 2009
Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 PM Carolina Panthers +2
Tampa Bay at Miami, 1:00 PM Miami Dolphins -10
Detroit at Minnesota, 1:00 PM Minnesota Vikings -17 ***
Denver at Washington, 1:00 PM Washington Redskins +3½
Buffalo at Tennessee, 1:00 PM Tennessee Titans -6½
New Orleans at St. Louis, 1:00 PM New Orleans Saints -13½
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM Cincinnati Bengals +7
Jacksonville at NY Jets, 1:00 PM New York Jets -7
Knsas City at Oakland, 4:05 PM Kansas City Chiefs +2
Seattle at Arizona, 4:15 PM Arizona Cardinals -8½
Dallas at Green Bay, 4:15 PM Green Bay Packers +3
Philadelphia at San Diego, 4:15 PM Philadelphia Eagles +2
New England at Indianapolis, 8:20 PM New England Patriots +3
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
Jacksonville (4-4, 3-5 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (4-4 SU and ATS)
The slumping Jets look to get their season back on track when they welcome the Jaguars to the Meadowlands.
New York, coming off its bye, fell to Miami for the second time this year in a 30-25 setback two Sundays ago as a 3½-point home favorite, dropping to 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games after a 3-0 SU and ATS start. The Jets still boast the NFL’s No. 1 rushing game, at a whopping 177.6 ypg, but the passing game is 27th (164.5 ypg). Defensively, New York is a solid second in total yards allowed (273.4 ypg) and fourth in points allowed (16.8 ppg).
Jacksonville held off Kansas City 24-21 Sunday, but fell short of covering as a seven-point home chalk in suffering its fourth straight ATS setback. The Jags are averaging 361 ypg, good for ninth in the league, but they are scoring just 19.6 ppg, which stands 21st. Meanwhile, they are giving up 362 ypg (23rd) and 24.8 ppg (24th).
Jacksonville is on a 5-0 ATS tear (4-1 SU) in this rivalry, including a 41-0 rout as a seven-point home favorite in October 2006, the most recent meeting.
Along with their current 1-4 ATS slide, the Jets are stuck in pointspread ruts of 2-5 at home, 2-8 laying points, 1-5 as a home chalk, 1-6 after a SU loss and 1-6 after a non-cover. However, they are on a 7-0 ATS tear following the bye week. The SU winner has also cashed in New York’s last 10 games. The Jaguars are on several negative ATS streaks, including 2-5 on the road, 3-8 against AFC opponents, 0-4 in November and 4-10 outside the AFC South.
The under is 9-1 in New York’s last 10 starts after the bye, but the over for the Jets is on stretches of 5-0-1 in November, 6-2 with New York a home favorite and 4-1 against the AFC. The over is 5-2 in Jacksonville’s last seven overall and 7-2-2 in its last nine November outings, but the Jags are on “under” runs of 6-1 on the highway, 9-3 getting points and 7-1 as a road pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS
Denver (6-2 SU and ATS) at Washington (2-6 SU and ATS)
The Broncos, aiming to rebound from a two-game skid, head to the East Coast for a non-conference contest with the dismal Redskins at FedEx Field.
Denver got drubbed Monday night by Pittsburgh 28-10 as a three-point home pup, losing and failing to cover in blowout fashion for the second straight week, following a 30-7 loss at Baltimore. The Broncos’ offense sits at 19th in total yards (331.8 ypg) and 22nd in scoring at just 18.8 ppg, totaling just 10 points the past two weeks as it failed to find the end zone. Denver is still third in both yards allowed (280.2 ypg) and points allowed (15.5 ppg), despite getting outscored 58-17 the past two weeks.
Washington lost to Atlanta 31-17 Sunday as a nine-point road ‘dog, its fourth consecutive SU defeat and third straight ATS setback. The Redskins haven’t scored more than 17 points all season, averaging just 14.1 ppg (29th), hindered greatly by a minus-9 turnover margin, also 29th in the league. Washington will be without RB Clinton Portis this week (concussion).
These teams have met just twice this decade in regular-season play, with Washington going 2-0 ATS (1-1 SU). Most recently, Denver won 21-19 in October 2005, with the Redskins cashing as a seven-point road pup. Also, the road team is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry.
Although the Broncos are 6-2 ATS this year and 6-3 ATS in their last nine roadies, they remain on a bundle of pointspread slides, including 6-20-1 as a chalk, 2-14 laying 3½ to 10 points, 3-13-1 against losing teams, 2-6 after a SU loss and 7-21 after a non-cover. The SU winner has covered in 11 straight for Denver. Like the Broncs, the Redskins are on ATS plunges of 3-11-2 overall, 0-4 at home, 0-5-1 in November and 1-6 against winning teams, and Washington is on an 0-10-1 ATS nosedive against AFC opponents.
Denver is on “under” rolls of 7-1 overall, 7-1 laying points and 4-1 in November, though the over for the Broncs is 15-5-2 in their last 22 following a SU loss and 18-6-2 in their last 26 after a non-cover. The under for Washington is on streaks of 18-7-1 overall, 10-1 at FedEx, 5-1 in November, 9-3 after a SU loss and 9-3-1 after a pointspread setback.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Cincinnati (6-2, 5-3 ATS) at Pittsburgh (6-2, 3-5 ATS)
The upstart Bengals travel to Heinz Field to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers in a battle for first place in the AFC North.
For the second time this year, Cincinnati knocked off Baltimore, notching a 17-7 home victory Sunday as a three-point ‘dog to win and cash for the second straight game. The Bengals have held six of their eight opponents this year to 20 points or less, and they stand fifth in the league in allowing just 16.9 ppg. Cincy’s offense is averaging 348.8 ypg (12th), paced by the ninth-best run game (130 ypg). RB Cedric Benson’s 837 rushing yards are good for second in the league.
Pittsburgh had a big second half Monday night in blowing out Denver 28-10 as a three-point road chalk for its fifth straight victory (3-2 ATS). The Steelers are fielding the NFL’s fifth-best offense (382 ypg) and are also fifth in passing (266.8 ypg) and 13th in scoring (24.4 ppg). Pittsburgh also has the No. 5 defense at 284.9 ypg and is yielding just 17.4 ppg (sixth).
Cincinnati dropped Pittsburgh 23-20 as a 3½-point home pup in September, ending a five-game SU and ATS roll by the Steelers in this rivalry. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes, and the road team is on an 11-4-1 ATS roll.
The Bengals are on ATS streaks of 8-3 overall, 5-0 against winning teams, 7-0 as a pup, 8-3 as a road ‘dog, 4-1 inside the division and 17-7-1 in November. The Steelers are on positive pointspread runs of 7-2 at home (all as a chalk), 5-1 against winning teams and 5-2 in the AFC North, though they are also on a 2-5 ATS skid following a SU win.
The under for Cincy is on stretches of 8-2 after a SU win, 9-3 after a spread-cover, 7-2 against the AFC and 23-9 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points. On the flip side, the over Pittsburgh is on sprees of 48-21-2 at Heinz Field, 6-2 in division play, 16-6 in the AFC and 5-2 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in three straight overall and six of the last seven in Pittsburgh.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Buffalo (3-5, 4-4 ATS) at Tennessee (2-6, 3-5 ATS)
The Titans, riding a two-game SU and ATS winning streak after starting out 0-6 (1-5 ATS), aim to make it three in a row when they take on the Bills at LP Field.
Tennessee, bolstered by a late INT return for a TD, beat San Francisco 34-27 as a 4½-point road underdog Sunday. After being held to 17 points or less in five of its first six games, including a 59-0 beatdown at New England three games ago, the Titans have put up 64 points over the past two weeks. The big difference has been star RB Chris Johnson, who leads the league with 959 rushing yards after putting up 491 yards and four TDs over the past three games. Tennessee now has the NFL’s second-best rushing attack, at 161 ypg.
Buffalo took last week off after getting belted 31-10 at home by Houston as a 3½-point ‘dog, ending a two-game SU and ATS uptick. The Bills haven’t scored more than 20 points in their last six games, including five starts of 16 points or less, and they stand 28th in the NFL at 15.4 ppg on the year. Buffalo is averaging just 264.8 ypg (29th).
Tennessee is 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in the last six meaningful games between these two teams. Most recently, Tennessee squeaked out a 30-29 road victory as a 5½-point pup in December 2006. The SU winner is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes.
The Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall, 1-5 ATS in their last six as a chalk and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a non-division home favorite, but they still carry positive ATS streaks of 5-1 in November, 12-4 coming off a SU win and 8-3 against losing teams. The Bills, meanwhile, are on pointspread upswings of 6-1 on the highway, 26-9-1 against losing teams and 5-2 as a non-division road pup, but they are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine November starts.
The under is on an 18-8-1 tear with Tennessee coming off a SU win, but the over has hit in five of the Titans’ last seven games overall. The under for Buffalo is on runs of 4-0 overall, 5-0 following a double-digit home loss and 13-3 with the Bills catching 3½ to 10 points. That said, the over is 5-2 in Buffalo’s last seven road games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Detroit (1-7, 2-6 ATS) at Minnesota (7-1, 5-3 ATS)
The Vikings, already running away with the NFC Central, return from their bye week to face the Lions at the Metrodome.
Minnesota dispatched Green Bay for the second time this year two weeks ago, posting a 38-26 victory as a 3½-point road underdog to end a two-game ATS hiccup (1-1 SU). The Vikings have rolled up 27 points or more in all but one game this year – their 27-17 loss at Pittsburgh three weeks ago – and are averaging 30.5 ppg, second only to New Orleans.
Detroit held a 17-0 lead at Seattle last week before falling apart and ultimately losing 32-20, failing to cover as an 11-point pup when rookie QB Matthew Stafford threw the last of his five INTs and had it returned 61 yards for a TD in the waning seconds. The Lions are allowing 29.6 ppg, second-worst in the league, while averaging a meager 16.6 ppg (26th).
Minnesota has won four in a row (2-2 ATS) in this divisional rivalry, including a 27-13 road win as a 10-point chalk on Sept. 20. The Vikings are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine clashes, and the favorite is also 6-2-1 ATS in that stretch.
The Vikings are on ATS upswings of 6-1 following a bye, 4-1 against losing teams, 4-1 in NFC North action and 6-2 in November, but they also shoulder negative pointspread streaks of 5-13 after a SU win, 3-8 after a spread-cover, 1-5 at home and 1-11 laying more than 10 points.
The Lions are on a 13-4 ATS roll as a pup of more than 10, but they are on a 1-24 SU nosedive (9-16 ATS) dating to late in the 2007 season, and they are on further ATS slides of 1-4 overall, 0-4 on the road, 0-4 in November, 2-5 getting points and 8-17-1 against the NFC North.
The total has gone low in four of the last five meetings between these two teams, but the “over” trends take over for both teams from there. The over for Minnesota is on tears of 5-1 overall, 4-0 with the Vikes favored, 7-1 in November and 12-3-1 after the bye, and the over for Detroit is on surges of 20-9-1 overall, 7-1 in November, 22-7 on the road, 18-7-1 against winning teams and 20-6 getting more than 10 points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and OVER
New Orleans (8-0, 6-2 ATS) at St. Louis (1-7, 3-5 ATS)
The Saints bring the NFL’s best record and best offense to the Edward Jones Dome for a meeting with the Rams, who are coming off their first victory in more than a year.
New Orleans overcame an early 14-0 deficit to Carolina in posting a 30-20 victory Sunday, though it fell just short as a 12½-point home chalk for its second straight ATS setback after cashing in its first six games. QB Drew Brees leads an offense that is rolling up NFL bests of 426.9 ypg and 37.9 ppg, more than seven points better than any other team in the league. The Saints are outscoring their opponents by an average of 17 ppg.
St. Louis, which had its bye last week, topped Detroit 17-10 as a 3½-point road ‘dog, giving new coach Steve Spagnuolo his first win and snapping a 17-game losing streak (6-11 ATS). That said, the Rams are still dead last in the NFL in scoring (9.6 ppg) and 26th in total yards (287.6 ypg), while allowing 27.6 ppg (29th) and 373.4 ypg (28th).
St. Louis is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings of this rivalry, including a 37-29 road upset in November 2007 as a 10-point pup. The visitor has cashed in four of the last five contests.
The Saints carry numerous positive pointspread streaks, including 11-3-1 overall, 6-0-1 on the road, 13-3 giving points, 5-0 as a road chalk, 6-1 after a non-cover and 5-1 against losing teams. The Rams are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a SU win, but they are on spread-covering slides of 6-18 at the home dome, 3-12 as a home ‘dog, 3-11 catching more than 10 points, 9-23 against winning teams and 6-14 in the NFC.
New Orleans is on “over” surges of 20-8-1 overall, 16-5 after a SU win, 17-7-1 as a favorite and 14-5 laying points on the road. The over for St. Louis is on runs of 9-4 after the bye and 3-1-1 at home, though the under for the Rams is 6-1 in their last seven after a SU win and 6-2 in their last eight November outings. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in five of the last six clashes overall and six of the last seven in St. Louis.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Atlanta (5-3, 6-2 ATS) at Carolina (3-5 SU and ATS)
The Falcons hit the road for the third time in four weeks when they head north to Bank of America Stadium for an NFC South battle with the Panthers.
Atlanta beat Washington 31-17 Sunday as a healthy nine-point home favorite, ending a two-game SU skid while covering for the second straight week. The Falcons’ defense is allowing 369.9 ypg (24th), but they are holding opponents to just 20.8 ppg (12th). Atlanta is averaging 25.2 ppg (11th), paced by running back Michael Turner (720 yards, 10 TDs, 4.6 ypc), who is seventh in the league in rushing yards.
Carolina wasted a huge day by RB DeAngelo Williams (21 carries, 149 yards, 2 TDs), blowing an early 14-0 lead and losing to New Orleans 30-20 last Sunday, though the Panthers covered as a 12½-point road ‘dog. Williams appears to be hitting his stride, having run for 548 yards and five TDs over the past four games, including three games of 149 yards or better. The Panthers have the league’s third-best running game (153 ypg), but they are still just 21st in total yards (325.1 ypg) and are averaging just 18.5 ppg (tie 23rd).
Atlanta has won and covered in three of the past four meetings in this divisional rivalry, including a 28-20 home win in September as a six-point favorite. The SU winner has cashed in the last nine clashes, the chalk is on a 4-1 ATS run, and the Falcons are 15-7-4 ATS in the last 26 contests.
The Falcons sport positive ATS streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 as a chalk, 4-0 giving three points or less, 4-0 in November and 5-1 against losing teams, though they are 1-4 ATS in their last five division roadies. The Panthers have covered in four of their last five NFC South starts, but they are on pointspread skids of 0-4 at home, 3-7 as a pup and 2-5 as a home ‘dog.
The over for Atlanta is on runs of 4-1 overall, 5-1 in the division, 7-1 in the NFC and 7-3 against losing teams, and the over for Carolina is on streaks of 5-1 in the division, 11-4 in the NFC, 7-3 against winning teams and 6-2 with the Panthers a ‘dog. However, the under is on upswings of 38-18-1 on the road for Atlanta, 6-0 with the Falcons a road favorite, 4-1 at home for Carolina and 4-1 with the Panthers a home pup.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in 12 of the last 14 meetings in Charlotte.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Tampa Bay (1-7, 2-6 ATS) at Miami (3-5, 4-4 ATS)
The Buccaneers, who finally cracked the win column last week, look to make it two in a row with the short trip south to LandShark Stadium to face the Dolphins.
Tampa Bay, with rookie QB Josh Freeman making his first start, scored 21 straight fourth-quarter points to clinch Sunday’s 38-28 victory over Green Bay as a 9½-point home underdog, giving new coach Raheem Morris his first career win. Freeman was just 14 of 31 for a modest 205 yards, but he threw three TDs against one INT, including a pair of fourth-quarter scoring passes as the Bucs rallied from a 28-17 deficit and ended an 11-game regular-season losing streak.
Tampa still sits a lowly 28th in total offense (273.1 ypg) and 25th in scoring (16.8 ppg), while allowing 379.9 ypg (29th) and 28.9 ppg (30th).
Miami fell to New England 37-27 last week, eking out a pointspread cover as a 10½-point road pup to cash for the fourth time in five games, after opening the season 0-3 SU and ATS. The Wildcat offense has the Dolphins fourth in the league in rushing (150.9 ypg), yet they are just 23rd in total offense (309 ypg). Miami is also in the bottom half defensively, allowing 341.4 ypg (22nd) and 25.5 ppg (26th).
These teams meet every year in the preseason, but they’ve had just one regular-season meeting this decade, with Tampa winning 27-13 as a 4½-point home chalk in October 2005.
The Buccaneers, who were on an 11-game SU slide (2-9 ATS) prior to last week’s win, are 6-2 ATS in their last eight November games, but they are on ATS dips of 2-8 overall, 1-4 after a spread-cover, 2-8 against losing teams, 2-6 as an underdog and 2-11 in non-conference road games. Likewise, the Dolphins are stuck in ATS ruts of 14-36-1 at home, 7-18-1 against losing teams, 7-22 as a favorite, 0-6 against the NFC and 3-16 as a non-division home chalk.
The over for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 7-3 overall, 12-2 against losing teams and 11-4 on the road, and the over for Miami is on runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 at LandShark and 10-3 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Kansas City (1-7, 3-5 ATS) at Oakland (2-6, 4-4 ATS)
Two traditional AFC West rivals square off, though neither squad has much to play for at the season’s midway point when the Chiefs head west to the Coliseum to face the Raiders.
Kansas City’s fourth-quarter rally fell short at Jacksonville last week, losing 24-21, but its two fourth-quarter TDs help the team cover as a seven-point road ‘dog. It marked the Chiefs’ highest point total since their season-opening 38-24 loss at Baltimore, as they are averaging just 15.8 ppg (27th) with an offense that rates 30th in total yards (257.8 ypg).
Oakland had its bye last week after a 24-16 road loss to San Diego, though it covered as an overwhelming 16-point pup. Like the Chiefs, that was the Raiders’ highest scoring output since Week 1, with an offense that makes K.C. look prolific by comparison. Oakland is averaging a dismal 9.8 ppg, tied for 30th with Cleveland and leading only the Rams (9.6 ppg). The Raiders are also last in total offense (215.8 ypg).
Oakland is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four clashes in this rivalry, including a 13-10 road victory as a one-point underdog on Sept. 20. Kansas City has cashed on its last six trips to the Coliseum, the SU winner has cashed in eight of the last nine meetings overall (including the last six in a row), the road team is on an 18-7-1 ATS roll and the underdog has covered in the last five contests.
The Chiefs are on a 13-6 ATS tear on the highway and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven division games, but they are also on ATS skids of 3-7 overall and 1-5 against AFC foes, and dating to the 2008 season opener, K.C. is a pathetic 3-21 SU (11-13 ATS). The Raiders, meanwhile, are on a bundle of spread-covering slides, including 15-36-1 at home, 16-35-1 against losing teams, 5-18 as a favorite and 0-9 as a home chalk, and they’re 0-6 SU and ATS the last six years after the bye.
In this rivalry, the total has stayed low in eight of the last nine matchups overall and four in a row at Oakland. Furthermore, the under for Kansas City is on runs of 4-1-1 in division play and 8-2-1 against losing teams, and the under for Oakland is on sprees of 5-2 overall, 6-1 after the bye, 5-1-1 in the division, 12-3-1 in November and 7-3 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Seattle (3-5 SU and ATS) at Arizona (5-3 SU and ATS)
The defending NFC champion Cardinals, coming off yet another road win, return to University of Phoenix Stadium looking to sweep the season series from the NFC West rival Seahawks.
Arizona punished Chicago 41-21 Sunday as a one-point road ‘dog, improving to 4-0 SU and ATS on the highway this season. The home field has been a problem, though, as the Cards are 1-3 SU and ATS in Glendale, including a 34-21 loss to Carolina as a heavy 10-point chalk two weeks ago. QB Kurt Warner threw five INTs against Carolina, but bounced back with five TDs against Chicago.
Despite Warner’s erratic play, Arizona still has the NFL’s eighth-best passing attack (262.4 ypg), but its running game – even after netting a whopping 182 yards against the Bears – still stands 31st at just 79.5 ypg.
Seattle got a pick-six in the waning seconds against Detroit to post a 32-20 win and cover as an 11-point home chalk Sunday, rallying from an early 17-0 deficit and halting a two-game SU and ATS skid. The Seahawks haven’t been able to string together two good games all year, following their season-opening 28-0 rout of St. Louis with three losses in which they scored 19 points or less, then totaling just 20 points in two losses following a 41-0 home rout of Jacksonville.
Arizona pelted Seattle 27-3 four weeks ago as a three-point road pup and has now won and cashed in five of the last six clashes in this rivalry, including the last three in a row. The Cards are on a 4-1 ATS run at home against the Seahawks, and the host is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests. Also, the SU winner has cashed nine straight times.
The Cardinals are on spread-covering streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 in the division, 4-1 against losing teams, 7-2 in the NFC, 6-2 after a SU win and 6-2 after a pointspread victory. Conversely, the Seahawks are on pointspread purges of 2-5 overall, 2-9 after a SU win, 4-10 after an ATS win, 0-4 on the road, 0-5 as an underdog and 0-4 against winning teams. Plus, Seattle is on an 0-5 SU and ATS dive in road games following a SU win.
The over has been the play in this rivalry lately, hitting in eight of the last 11 overall and five in a row in Phoenix. Additionally, the over for Arizona is on a boatload of runs, including 34-16 overall, 4-0 in November, 13-4 at home, 9-4 with the Cards a home chalk and 20-7 after a SU win. For Seattle, the over is on streaks of 4-1 from the underdog role and 9-4 with the ‘Hawks a road pup, though the under for the Seahawks is on upticks of 4-1-1 in division play and 6-2 in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
Philadelphia (5-3 SU and ATS) at San Diego (5-3, 3-5 ATS)
The surging Chargers go after their fourth straight victory in a non-conference clash with the Eagles at Qualcomm Stadium.
San Diego stunned the Giants with an 80-yard drive that ended on a Philip Rivers-to-Vincent Jackson TD pass with 21 seconds left last Sunday, securing a 21-20 road victory as a five-point road underdog. The Chargers are a middling 17th in total offense (335.4 ypg), but they are scoring 25.8 ppg (ninth), led by the seventh-best passing attack (265.8 ypg). Rivers has 14 TD throws against just six INTs.
Philadelphia tumbled to Dallas 20-16 as a three-point home favorite Sunday night, getting held under 22 points for just the second time this season while ending a two-game SU and ATS run. Like San Diego, the Eagles are in the middle of the league offensively (338.5 ypg, 15th), but they score at a healthy rate, averaging 27.4 ppg (fourth), and they’ve been bolstered by a plus-11 turnover margin, which is No. 1 in the NFL.
These squads have met just twice this decade, both at Philadelphia, with the Eagles going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS. Most recently, Philly won 20-17 in October 2005, but San Diego cashed as a 4½-point pup.
The Chargers are on a 6-2 ATS run at home against teams with a winning road mark, but they are otherwise in pointspread declines of 4-9 as a favorite, 0-4 after a spread-cover and 1-5 following a SU win, and they are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against NFC foes. The Eagles, despite last week’s debacle against Dallas, are on ATS tears of 11-5 overall, 14-6 on the road, 8-1 as a road pup and 5-0 after both a SU loss and an ATS setback.
The under has hit in six straight November games for San Diego and is 7-3-1 in its last 11 at Qualcomm, but the over for the Bolts is on surges of 5-2 against winning teams, 5-2-2 from the favorite’s role, 5-2 after a spread-cover and 7-3 following a SU win. Philadelphia is on “over” runs of 7-2 overall, 5-0 after a SU loss, 6-0 after a non-cover, 21-6 getting points and 26-12-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Dallas (6-2, 5-3 ATS) at Green Bay (4-4 SU and ATS)
The Packers, already in desperation mode for wins just eight games into the season, renew their longtime rivalry with the streaking Cowboys at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay blew a 28-17 fourth-quarter lead against previously winless Tampa Bay, allowing the final 21 points of the game in a 38-28 road loss Sunday as a 9½-point chalk, its second consecutive SU and ATS setback. The Packers have given up 38 points in both those losses, after holding four of their first six opponents to 21 points or less.
Still, Green Bay has the NFL’s fourth-best total defense (282.9 ypg) and is allowing 21.5 ppg (17th), and QB Aaron Rodgers (16 TDs, five INTs) has been solid most of the time. The problem is that Rodgers has already been sacked an NFL-high 37 times this year, 10 more than anyone else in the league.
Dallas scored a mild upset at Philadelphia on Sunday, winning 20-16 as a three-point pup for its fourth consecutive SU victory and third straight spread-cover. The Cowboys are third in total offense (404.5 ypg) and tied for fifth in scoring offense (27.1 ppg), and although they stand 20th in total defense (336.5 ypg), they’re only giving up 19 ppg (seventh). In fact, they’ve held their last six opponents to three TDs or less.
These rivals met each of the past two seasons, with Dallas going 2-0 SU and ATS, including a 27-16 win as a three-point road chalk in September 2008. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, and the home team and the chalk are both 7-1 ATS in that same stretch.
The Packers have failed to cover in four straight November games and are on further ATS skids of 2-5 at home and 1-5 in non-division home games, though they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 after a non-cover, 5-2 getting points and 7-3 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points. The Cowboys are on ATS runs of 4-0 in conference games, 12-2 in November, 9-4 as a chalk and 4-1-1 laying three or less on the road, but despite last week’s win in Philly, they remain only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 away games.
Green Bay is on several “over” tears, including 23-9-1 overall, 4-0 in November, 20-5-1 in the NFC, 10-4 against winning teams and 12-5 at Lambeau. Similarly, the over for Dallas is on stretches of 7-3 overall, 6-2 with the Pokes favored and 15-6-2 with the Cowboys a road chalk. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in four of the last five contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
New England (6-2, 4-4 ATS) at Indianapolis (8-0, 5-3 ATS)
The undefeated Colts play host to the perennial power Patriots at Lucas Oil Stadium in a prime-time showdown featuring two of the NFL’s top teams this decade.
Indianapolis fended off Houston 20-17 at home last week, falling short as a 7½-point favorite for its second straight ATS loss. Peyton Manning (16 TDs, 5 INTs, 2,545 yards) leads an offense that is putting up 400.4 total ypg (fourth), including a league-leading 315 yards through the air, and Indy is tied for fifth in scoring (27.1 ppg). Also, despite having numerous injuries on defense, particularly in the secondary, the Colts stand eighth in yards allowed (303.4 ypg) and are No. 1 in points allowed (13.5 ppg), while also sporting a plus-7 turnover margin (fifth).
New England dropped Miami 27-17 Sunday, winning its third straight game but coming up just short of cashing as a 10½-point home chalk. The Pats are third in the league in scoring (28.1 ppg) and second in total offense (409.2 ypg), with QB Tom Brady (16 TDs, five INTs) engineering a passing game that is second only to the Colts, averaging 295 ypg. The Patriots are also second only to Indy in points allowed, at a stifling 14.4 per game, while yielding 291.8 ypg (seventh), and they have a plus-8 turnover margin (tied for third).
These rivals have met nine times since 2003, including three times in the playoffs. Indianapolis is on a 4-1 SU and ATS surge, including an 18-15 home win last November in which it failed to cover as a 6½-point favorite. The Pats are 8-3 ATS on their last 11 trips to Indy, and the underdog is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 series clashes.
The Colts shoulder several negative ATS streaks, including 4-10 at home, 1-4 as a home favorite, 1-3-1 in November and 2-6 against winning teams, but they are on a trio of 5-2 ATS upswings: overall, following a SU win and as a chalk of three points or less. The Patriots are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games coming off a SU win, but the pointspread trends head upward from there, including 37-17-1 on the highway, 8-2 after a non-cover and 5-2 as an underdog (all on the road).
The under for Indianapolis is on rolls of 7-3 overall, 4-0 in November, 4-1 at home and 5-1 in conference action, and the under for New England is on runs of 5-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 4-1 after a SU win and 14-6 in November. That said, the over is on surges of 11-5 when the Pats are a ‘dog and 6-2 with New England getting up to three points on the highway.
Finally, three of the last four meetings in this rivalry have fallen short of the total, including the last two in a row.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and UNDER
NFL
Jacksonville (4-4, 3-5 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (4-4 SU and ATS)
The slumping Jets look to get their season back on track when they welcome the Jaguars to the Meadowlands.
New York, coming off its bye, fell to Miami for the second time this year in a 30-25 setback two Sundays ago as a 3½-point home favorite, dropping to 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games after a 3-0 SU and ATS start. The Jets still boast the NFL’s No. 1 rushing game, at a whopping 177.6 ypg, but the passing game is 27th (164.5 ypg). Defensively, New York is a solid second in total yards allowed (273.4 ypg) and fourth in points allowed (16.8 ppg).
Jacksonville held off Kansas City 24-21 Sunday, but fell short of covering as a seven-point home chalk in suffering its fourth straight ATS setback. The Jags are averaging 361 ypg, good for ninth in the league, but they are scoring just 19.6 ppg, which stands 21st. Meanwhile, they are giving up 362 ypg (23rd) and 24.8 ppg (24th).
Jacksonville is on a 5-0 ATS tear (4-1 SU) in this rivalry, including a 41-0 rout as a seven-point home favorite in October 2006, the most recent meeting.
Along with their current 1-4 ATS slide, the Jets are stuck in pointspread ruts of 2-5 at home, 2-8 laying points, 1-5 as a home chalk, 1-6 after a SU loss and 1-6 after a non-cover. However, they are on a 7-0 ATS tear following the bye week. The SU winner has also cashed in New York’s last 10 games. The Jaguars are on several negative ATS streaks, including 2-5 on the road, 3-8 against AFC opponents, 0-4 in November and 4-10 outside the AFC South.
The under is 9-1 in New York’s last 10 starts after the bye, but the over for the Jets is on stretches of 5-0-1 in November, 6-2 with New York a home favorite and 4-1 against the AFC. The over is 5-2 in Jacksonville’s last seven overall and 7-2-2 in its last nine November outings, but the Jags are on “under” runs of 6-1 on the highway, 9-3 getting points and 7-1 as a road pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS
Denver (6-2 SU and ATS) at Washington (2-6 SU and ATS)
The Broncos, aiming to rebound from a two-game skid, head to the East Coast for a non-conference contest with the dismal Redskins at FedEx Field.
Denver got drubbed Monday night by Pittsburgh 28-10 as a three-point home pup, losing and failing to cover in blowout fashion for the second straight week, following a 30-7 loss at Baltimore. The Broncos’ offense sits at 19th in total yards (331.8 ypg) and 22nd in scoring at just 18.8 ppg, totaling just 10 points the past two weeks as it failed to find the end zone. Denver is still third in both yards allowed (280.2 ypg) and points allowed (15.5 ppg), despite getting outscored 58-17 the past two weeks.
Washington lost to Atlanta 31-17 Sunday as a nine-point road ‘dog, its fourth consecutive SU defeat and third straight ATS setback. The Redskins haven’t scored more than 17 points all season, averaging just 14.1 ppg (29th), hindered greatly by a minus-9 turnover margin, also 29th in the league. Washington will be without RB Clinton Portis this week (concussion).
These teams have met just twice this decade in regular-season play, with Washington going 2-0 ATS (1-1 SU). Most recently, Denver won 21-19 in October 2005, with the Redskins cashing as a seven-point road pup. Also, the road team is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry.
Although the Broncos are 6-2 ATS this year and 6-3 ATS in their last nine roadies, they remain on a bundle of pointspread slides, including 6-20-1 as a chalk, 2-14 laying 3½ to 10 points, 3-13-1 against losing teams, 2-6 after a SU loss and 7-21 after a non-cover. The SU winner has covered in 11 straight for Denver. Like the Broncs, the Redskins are on ATS plunges of 3-11-2 overall, 0-4 at home, 0-5-1 in November and 1-6 against winning teams, and Washington is on an 0-10-1 ATS nosedive against AFC opponents.
Denver is on “under” rolls of 7-1 overall, 7-1 laying points and 4-1 in November, though the over for the Broncs is 15-5-2 in their last 22 following a SU loss and 18-6-2 in their last 26 after a non-cover. The under for Washington is on streaks of 18-7-1 overall, 10-1 at FedEx, 5-1 in November, 9-3 after a SU loss and 9-3-1 after a pointspread setback.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Cincinnati (6-2, 5-3 ATS) at Pittsburgh (6-2, 3-5 ATS)
The upstart Bengals travel to Heinz Field to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers in a battle for first place in the AFC North.
For the second time this year, Cincinnati knocked off Baltimore, notching a 17-7 home victory Sunday as a three-point ‘dog to win and cash for the second straight game. The Bengals have held six of their eight opponents this year to 20 points or less, and they stand fifth in the league in allowing just 16.9 ppg. Cincy’s offense is averaging 348.8 ypg (12th), paced by the ninth-best run game (130 ypg). RB Cedric Benson’s 837 rushing yards are good for second in the league.
Pittsburgh had a big second half Monday night in blowing out Denver 28-10 as a three-point road chalk for its fifth straight victory (3-2 ATS). The Steelers are fielding the NFL’s fifth-best offense (382 ypg) and are also fifth in passing (266.8 ypg) and 13th in scoring (24.4 ppg). Pittsburgh also has the No. 5 defense at 284.9 ypg and is yielding just 17.4 ppg (sixth).
Cincinnati dropped Pittsburgh 23-20 as a 3½-point home pup in September, ending a five-game SU and ATS roll by the Steelers in this rivalry. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes, and the road team is on an 11-4-1 ATS roll.
The Bengals are on ATS streaks of 8-3 overall, 5-0 against winning teams, 7-0 as a pup, 8-3 as a road ‘dog, 4-1 inside the division and 17-7-1 in November. The Steelers are on positive pointspread runs of 7-2 at home (all as a chalk), 5-1 against winning teams and 5-2 in the AFC North, though they are also on a 2-5 ATS skid following a SU win.
The under for Cincy is on stretches of 8-2 after a SU win, 9-3 after a spread-cover, 7-2 against the AFC and 23-9 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points. On the flip side, the over Pittsburgh is on sprees of 48-21-2 at Heinz Field, 6-2 in division play, 16-6 in the AFC and 5-2 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in three straight overall and six of the last seven in Pittsburgh.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Buffalo (3-5, 4-4 ATS) at Tennessee (2-6, 3-5 ATS)
The Titans, riding a two-game SU and ATS winning streak after starting out 0-6 (1-5 ATS), aim to make it three in a row when they take on the Bills at LP Field.
Tennessee, bolstered by a late INT return for a TD, beat San Francisco 34-27 as a 4½-point road underdog Sunday. After being held to 17 points or less in five of its first six games, including a 59-0 beatdown at New England three games ago, the Titans have put up 64 points over the past two weeks. The big difference has been star RB Chris Johnson, who leads the league with 959 rushing yards after putting up 491 yards and four TDs over the past three games. Tennessee now has the NFL’s second-best rushing attack, at 161 ypg.
Buffalo took last week off after getting belted 31-10 at home by Houston as a 3½-point ‘dog, ending a two-game SU and ATS uptick. The Bills haven’t scored more than 20 points in their last six games, including five starts of 16 points or less, and they stand 28th in the NFL at 15.4 ppg on the year. Buffalo is averaging just 264.8 ypg (29th).
Tennessee is 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in the last six meaningful games between these two teams. Most recently, Tennessee squeaked out a 30-29 road victory as a 5½-point pup in December 2006. The SU winner is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes.
The Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall, 1-5 ATS in their last six as a chalk and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a non-division home favorite, but they still carry positive ATS streaks of 5-1 in November, 12-4 coming off a SU win and 8-3 against losing teams. The Bills, meanwhile, are on pointspread upswings of 6-1 on the highway, 26-9-1 against losing teams and 5-2 as a non-division road pup, but they are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine November starts.
The under is on an 18-8-1 tear with Tennessee coming off a SU win, but the over has hit in five of the Titans’ last seven games overall. The under for Buffalo is on runs of 4-0 overall, 5-0 following a double-digit home loss and 13-3 with the Bills catching 3½ to 10 points. That said, the over is 5-2 in Buffalo’s last seven road games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Detroit (1-7, 2-6 ATS) at Minnesota (7-1, 5-3 ATS)
The Vikings, already running away with the NFC Central, return from their bye week to face the Lions at the Metrodome.
Minnesota dispatched Green Bay for the second time this year two weeks ago, posting a 38-26 victory as a 3½-point road underdog to end a two-game ATS hiccup (1-1 SU). The Vikings have rolled up 27 points or more in all but one game this year – their 27-17 loss at Pittsburgh three weeks ago – and are averaging 30.5 ppg, second only to New Orleans.
Detroit held a 17-0 lead at Seattle last week before falling apart and ultimately losing 32-20, failing to cover as an 11-point pup when rookie QB Matthew Stafford threw the last of his five INTs and had it returned 61 yards for a TD in the waning seconds. The Lions are allowing 29.6 ppg, second-worst in the league, while averaging a meager 16.6 ppg (26th).
Minnesota has won four in a row (2-2 ATS) in this divisional rivalry, including a 27-13 road win as a 10-point chalk on Sept. 20. The Vikings are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine clashes, and the favorite is also 6-2-1 ATS in that stretch.
The Vikings are on ATS upswings of 6-1 following a bye, 4-1 against losing teams, 4-1 in NFC North action and 6-2 in November, but they also shoulder negative pointspread streaks of 5-13 after a SU win, 3-8 after a spread-cover, 1-5 at home and 1-11 laying more than 10 points.
The Lions are on a 13-4 ATS roll as a pup of more than 10, but they are on a 1-24 SU nosedive (9-16 ATS) dating to late in the 2007 season, and they are on further ATS slides of 1-4 overall, 0-4 on the road, 0-4 in November, 2-5 getting points and 8-17-1 against the NFC North.
The total has gone low in four of the last five meetings between these two teams, but the “over” trends take over for both teams from there. The over for Minnesota is on tears of 5-1 overall, 4-0 with the Vikes favored, 7-1 in November and 12-3-1 after the bye, and the over for Detroit is on surges of 20-9-1 overall, 7-1 in November, 22-7 on the road, 18-7-1 against winning teams and 20-6 getting more than 10 points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and OVER
New Orleans (8-0, 6-2 ATS) at St. Louis (1-7, 3-5 ATS)
The Saints bring the NFL’s best record and best offense to the Edward Jones Dome for a meeting with the Rams, who are coming off their first victory in more than a year.
New Orleans overcame an early 14-0 deficit to Carolina in posting a 30-20 victory Sunday, though it fell just short as a 12½-point home chalk for its second straight ATS setback after cashing in its first six games. QB Drew Brees leads an offense that is rolling up NFL bests of 426.9 ypg and 37.9 ppg, more than seven points better than any other team in the league. The Saints are outscoring their opponents by an average of 17 ppg.
St. Louis, which had its bye last week, topped Detroit 17-10 as a 3½-point road ‘dog, giving new coach Steve Spagnuolo his first win and snapping a 17-game losing streak (6-11 ATS). That said, the Rams are still dead last in the NFL in scoring (9.6 ppg) and 26th in total yards (287.6 ypg), while allowing 27.6 ppg (29th) and 373.4 ypg (28th).
St. Louis is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings of this rivalry, including a 37-29 road upset in November 2007 as a 10-point pup. The visitor has cashed in four of the last five contests.
The Saints carry numerous positive pointspread streaks, including 11-3-1 overall, 6-0-1 on the road, 13-3 giving points, 5-0 as a road chalk, 6-1 after a non-cover and 5-1 against losing teams. The Rams are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a SU win, but they are on spread-covering slides of 6-18 at the home dome, 3-12 as a home ‘dog, 3-11 catching more than 10 points, 9-23 against winning teams and 6-14 in the NFC.
New Orleans is on “over” surges of 20-8-1 overall, 16-5 after a SU win, 17-7-1 as a favorite and 14-5 laying points on the road. The over for St. Louis is on runs of 9-4 after the bye and 3-1-1 at home, though the under for the Rams is 6-1 in their last seven after a SU win and 6-2 in their last eight November outings. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in five of the last six clashes overall and six of the last seven in St. Louis.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Atlanta (5-3, 6-2 ATS) at Carolina (3-5 SU and ATS)
The Falcons hit the road for the third time in four weeks when they head north to Bank of America Stadium for an NFC South battle with the Panthers.
Atlanta beat Washington 31-17 Sunday as a healthy nine-point home favorite, ending a two-game SU skid while covering for the second straight week. The Falcons’ defense is allowing 369.9 ypg (24th), but they are holding opponents to just 20.8 ppg (12th). Atlanta is averaging 25.2 ppg (11th), paced by running back Michael Turner (720 yards, 10 TDs, 4.6 ypc), who is seventh in the league in rushing yards.
Carolina wasted a huge day by RB DeAngelo Williams (21 carries, 149 yards, 2 TDs), blowing an early 14-0 lead and losing to New Orleans 30-20 last Sunday, though the Panthers covered as a 12½-point road ‘dog. Williams appears to be hitting his stride, having run for 548 yards and five TDs over the past four games, including three games of 149 yards or better. The Panthers have the league’s third-best running game (153 ypg), but they are still just 21st in total yards (325.1 ypg) and are averaging just 18.5 ppg (tie 23rd).
Atlanta has won and covered in three of the past four meetings in this divisional rivalry, including a 28-20 home win in September as a six-point favorite. The SU winner has cashed in the last nine clashes, the chalk is on a 4-1 ATS run, and the Falcons are 15-7-4 ATS in the last 26 contests.
The Falcons sport positive ATS streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 as a chalk, 4-0 giving three points or less, 4-0 in November and 5-1 against losing teams, though they are 1-4 ATS in their last five division roadies. The Panthers have covered in four of their last five NFC South starts, but they are on pointspread skids of 0-4 at home, 3-7 as a pup and 2-5 as a home ‘dog.
The over for Atlanta is on runs of 4-1 overall, 5-1 in the division, 7-1 in the NFC and 7-3 against losing teams, and the over for Carolina is on streaks of 5-1 in the division, 11-4 in the NFC, 7-3 against winning teams and 6-2 with the Panthers a ‘dog. However, the under is on upswings of 38-18-1 on the road for Atlanta, 6-0 with the Falcons a road favorite, 4-1 at home for Carolina and 4-1 with the Panthers a home pup.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in 12 of the last 14 meetings in Charlotte.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Tampa Bay (1-7, 2-6 ATS) at Miami (3-5, 4-4 ATS)
The Buccaneers, who finally cracked the win column last week, look to make it two in a row with the short trip south to LandShark Stadium to face the Dolphins.
Tampa Bay, with rookie QB Josh Freeman making his first start, scored 21 straight fourth-quarter points to clinch Sunday’s 38-28 victory over Green Bay as a 9½-point home underdog, giving new coach Raheem Morris his first career win. Freeman was just 14 of 31 for a modest 205 yards, but he threw three TDs against one INT, including a pair of fourth-quarter scoring passes as the Bucs rallied from a 28-17 deficit and ended an 11-game regular-season losing streak.
Tampa still sits a lowly 28th in total offense (273.1 ypg) and 25th in scoring (16.8 ppg), while allowing 379.9 ypg (29th) and 28.9 ppg (30th).
Miami fell to New England 37-27 last week, eking out a pointspread cover as a 10½-point road pup to cash for the fourth time in five games, after opening the season 0-3 SU and ATS. The Wildcat offense has the Dolphins fourth in the league in rushing (150.9 ypg), yet they are just 23rd in total offense (309 ypg). Miami is also in the bottom half defensively, allowing 341.4 ypg (22nd) and 25.5 ppg (26th).
These teams meet every year in the preseason, but they’ve had just one regular-season meeting this decade, with Tampa winning 27-13 as a 4½-point home chalk in October 2005.
The Buccaneers, who were on an 11-game SU slide (2-9 ATS) prior to last week’s win, are 6-2 ATS in their last eight November games, but they are on ATS dips of 2-8 overall, 1-4 after a spread-cover, 2-8 against losing teams, 2-6 as an underdog and 2-11 in non-conference road games. Likewise, the Dolphins are stuck in ATS ruts of 14-36-1 at home, 7-18-1 against losing teams, 7-22 as a favorite, 0-6 against the NFC and 3-16 as a non-division home chalk.
The over for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 7-3 overall, 12-2 against losing teams and 11-4 on the road, and the over for Miami is on runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 at LandShark and 10-3 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Kansas City (1-7, 3-5 ATS) at Oakland (2-6, 4-4 ATS)
Two traditional AFC West rivals square off, though neither squad has much to play for at the season’s midway point when the Chiefs head west to the Coliseum to face the Raiders.
Kansas City’s fourth-quarter rally fell short at Jacksonville last week, losing 24-21, but its two fourth-quarter TDs help the team cover as a seven-point road ‘dog. It marked the Chiefs’ highest point total since their season-opening 38-24 loss at Baltimore, as they are averaging just 15.8 ppg (27th) with an offense that rates 30th in total yards (257.8 ypg).
Oakland had its bye last week after a 24-16 road loss to San Diego, though it covered as an overwhelming 16-point pup. Like the Chiefs, that was the Raiders’ highest scoring output since Week 1, with an offense that makes K.C. look prolific by comparison. Oakland is averaging a dismal 9.8 ppg, tied for 30th with Cleveland and leading only the Rams (9.6 ppg). The Raiders are also last in total offense (215.8 ypg).
Oakland is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four clashes in this rivalry, including a 13-10 road victory as a one-point underdog on Sept. 20. Kansas City has cashed on its last six trips to the Coliseum, the SU winner has cashed in eight of the last nine meetings overall (including the last six in a row), the road team is on an 18-7-1 ATS roll and the underdog has covered in the last five contests.
The Chiefs are on a 13-6 ATS tear on the highway and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven division games, but they are also on ATS skids of 3-7 overall and 1-5 against AFC foes, and dating to the 2008 season opener, K.C. is a pathetic 3-21 SU (11-13 ATS). The Raiders, meanwhile, are on a bundle of spread-covering slides, including 15-36-1 at home, 16-35-1 against losing teams, 5-18 as a favorite and 0-9 as a home chalk, and they’re 0-6 SU and ATS the last six years after the bye.
In this rivalry, the total has stayed low in eight of the last nine matchups overall and four in a row at Oakland. Furthermore, the under for Kansas City is on runs of 4-1-1 in division play and 8-2-1 against losing teams, and the under for Oakland is on sprees of 5-2 overall, 6-1 after the bye, 5-1-1 in the division, 12-3-1 in November and 7-3 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Seattle (3-5 SU and ATS) at Arizona (5-3 SU and ATS)
The defending NFC champion Cardinals, coming off yet another road win, return to University of Phoenix Stadium looking to sweep the season series from the NFC West rival Seahawks.
Arizona punished Chicago 41-21 Sunday as a one-point road ‘dog, improving to 4-0 SU and ATS on the highway this season. The home field has been a problem, though, as the Cards are 1-3 SU and ATS in Glendale, including a 34-21 loss to Carolina as a heavy 10-point chalk two weeks ago. QB Kurt Warner threw five INTs against Carolina, but bounced back with five TDs against Chicago.
Despite Warner’s erratic play, Arizona still has the NFL’s eighth-best passing attack (262.4 ypg), but its running game – even after netting a whopping 182 yards against the Bears – still stands 31st at just 79.5 ypg.
Seattle got a pick-six in the waning seconds against Detroit to post a 32-20 win and cover as an 11-point home chalk Sunday, rallying from an early 17-0 deficit and halting a two-game SU and ATS skid. The Seahawks haven’t been able to string together two good games all year, following their season-opening 28-0 rout of St. Louis with three losses in which they scored 19 points or less, then totaling just 20 points in two losses following a 41-0 home rout of Jacksonville.
Arizona pelted Seattle 27-3 four weeks ago as a three-point road pup and has now won and cashed in five of the last six clashes in this rivalry, including the last three in a row. The Cards are on a 4-1 ATS run at home against the Seahawks, and the host is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests. Also, the SU winner has cashed nine straight times.
The Cardinals are on spread-covering streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 in the division, 4-1 against losing teams, 7-2 in the NFC, 6-2 after a SU win and 6-2 after a pointspread victory. Conversely, the Seahawks are on pointspread purges of 2-5 overall, 2-9 after a SU win, 4-10 after an ATS win, 0-4 on the road, 0-5 as an underdog and 0-4 against winning teams. Plus, Seattle is on an 0-5 SU and ATS dive in road games following a SU win.
The over has been the play in this rivalry lately, hitting in eight of the last 11 overall and five in a row in Phoenix. Additionally, the over for Arizona is on a boatload of runs, including 34-16 overall, 4-0 in November, 13-4 at home, 9-4 with the Cards a home chalk and 20-7 after a SU win. For Seattle, the over is on streaks of 4-1 from the underdog role and 9-4 with the ‘Hawks a road pup, though the under for the Seahawks is on upticks of 4-1-1 in division play and 6-2 in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
Philadelphia (5-3 SU and ATS) at San Diego (5-3, 3-5 ATS)
The surging Chargers go after their fourth straight victory in a non-conference clash with the Eagles at Qualcomm Stadium.
San Diego stunned the Giants with an 80-yard drive that ended on a Philip Rivers-to-Vincent Jackson TD pass with 21 seconds left last Sunday, securing a 21-20 road victory as a five-point road underdog. The Chargers are a middling 17th in total offense (335.4 ypg), but they are scoring 25.8 ppg (ninth), led by the seventh-best passing attack (265.8 ypg). Rivers has 14 TD throws against just six INTs.
Philadelphia tumbled to Dallas 20-16 as a three-point home favorite Sunday night, getting held under 22 points for just the second time this season while ending a two-game SU and ATS run. Like San Diego, the Eagles are in the middle of the league offensively (338.5 ypg, 15th), but they score at a healthy rate, averaging 27.4 ppg (fourth), and they’ve been bolstered by a plus-11 turnover margin, which is No. 1 in the NFL.
These squads have met just twice this decade, both at Philadelphia, with the Eagles going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS. Most recently, Philly won 20-17 in October 2005, but San Diego cashed as a 4½-point pup.
The Chargers are on a 6-2 ATS run at home against teams with a winning road mark, but they are otherwise in pointspread declines of 4-9 as a favorite, 0-4 after a spread-cover and 1-5 following a SU win, and they are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against NFC foes. The Eagles, despite last week’s debacle against Dallas, are on ATS tears of 11-5 overall, 14-6 on the road, 8-1 as a road pup and 5-0 after both a SU loss and an ATS setback.
The under has hit in six straight November games for San Diego and is 7-3-1 in its last 11 at Qualcomm, but the over for the Bolts is on surges of 5-2 against winning teams, 5-2-2 from the favorite’s role, 5-2 after a spread-cover and 7-3 following a SU win. Philadelphia is on “over” runs of 7-2 overall, 5-0 after a SU loss, 6-0 after a non-cover, 21-6 getting points and 26-12-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Dallas (6-2, 5-3 ATS) at Green Bay (4-4 SU and ATS)
The Packers, already in desperation mode for wins just eight games into the season, renew their longtime rivalry with the streaking Cowboys at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay blew a 28-17 fourth-quarter lead against previously winless Tampa Bay, allowing the final 21 points of the game in a 38-28 road loss Sunday as a 9½-point chalk, its second consecutive SU and ATS setback. The Packers have given up 38 points in both those losses, after holding four of their first six opponents to 21 points or less.
Still, Green Bay has the NFL’s fourth-best total defense (282.9 ypg) and is allowing 21.5 ppg (17th), and QB Aaron Rodgers (16 TDs, five INTs) has been solid most of the time. The problem is that Rodgers has already been sacked an NFL-high 37 times this year, 10 more than anyone else in the league.
Dallas scored a mild upset at Philadelphia on Sunday, winning 20-16 as a three-point pup for its fourth consecutive SU victory and third straight spread-cover. The Cowboys are third in total offense (404.5 ypg) and tied for fifth in scoring offense (27.1 ppg), and although they stand 20th in total defense (336.5 ypg), they’re only giving up 19 ppg (seventh). In fact, they’ve held their last six opponents to three TDs or less.
These rivals met each of the past two seasons, with Dallas going 2-0 SU and ATS, including a 27-16 win as a three-point road chalk in September 2008. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, and the home team and the chalk are both 7-1 ATS in that same stretch.
The Packers have failed to cover in four straight November games and are on further ATS skids of 2-5 at home and 1-5 in non-division home games, though they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 after a non-cover, 5-2 getting points and 7-3 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points. The Cowboys are on ATS runs of 4-0 in conference games, 12-2 in November, 9-4 as a chalk and 4-1-1 laying three or less on the road, but despite last week’s win in Philly, they remain only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 away games.
Green Bay is on several “over” tears, including 23-9-1 overall, 4-0 in November, 20-5-1 in the NFC, 10-4 against winning teams and 12-5 at Lambeau. Similarly, the over for Dallas is on stretches of 7-3 overall, 6-2 with the Pokes favored and 15-6-2 with the Cowboys a road chalk. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in four of the last five contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
New England (6-2, 4-4 ATS) at Indianapolis (8-0, 5-3 ATS)
The undefeated Colts play host to the perennial power Patriots at Lucas Oil Stadium in a prime-time showdown featuring two of the NFL’s top teams this decade.
Indianapolis fended off Houston 20-17 at home last week, falling short as a 7½-point favorite for its second straight ATS loss. Peyton Manning (16 TDs, 5 INTs, 2,545 yards) leads an offense that is putting up 400.4 total ypg (fourth), including a league-leading 315 yards through the air, and Indy is tied for fifth in scoring (27.1 ppg). Also, despite having numerous injuries on defense, particularly in the secondary, the Colts stand eighth in yards allowed (303.4 ypg) and are No. 1 in points allowed (13.5 ppg), while also sporting a plus-7 turnover margin (fifth).
New England dropped Miami 27-17 Sunday, winning its third straight game but coming up just short of cashing as a 10½-point home chalk. The Pats are third in the league in scoring (28.1 ppg) and second in total offense (409.2 ypg), with QB Tom Brady (16 TDs, five INTs) engineering a passing game that is second only to the Colts, averaging 295 ypg. The Patriots are also second only to Indy in points allowed, at a stifling 14.4 per game, while yielding 291.8 ypg (seventh), and they have a plus-8 turnover margin (tied for third).
These rivals have met nine times since 2003, including three times in the playoffs. Indianapolis is on a 4-1 SU and ATS surge, including an 18-15 home win last November in which it failed to cover as a 6½-point favorite. The Pats are 8-3 ATS on their last 11 trips to Indy, and the underdog is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 series clashes.
The Colts shoulder several negative ATS streaks, including 4-10 at home, 1-4 as a home favorite, 1-3-1 in November and 2-6 against winning teams, but they are on a trio of 5-2 ATS upswings: overall, following a SU win and as a chalk of three points or less. The Patriots are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games coming off a SU win, but the pointspread trends head upward from there, including 37-17-1 on the highway, 8-2 after a non-cover and 5-2 as an underdog (all on the road).
The under for Indianapolis is on rolls of 7-3 overall, 4-0 in November, 4-1 at home and 5-1 in conference action, and the under for New England is on runs of 5-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 4-1 after a SU win and 14-6 in November. That said, the over is on surges of 11-5 when the Pats are a ‘dog and 6-2 with New England getting up to three points on the highway.
Finally, three of the last four meetings in this rivalry have fallen short of the total, including the last two in a row.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and UNDER
SportsBook Breakers
Side Play
4-STAR New Orleans -13.5 over ST. LOUIS – The Rams have been
playing teams closer lately, even winning a game. However, this is
the league leading Saints and not the lowly Lions.
New Orleans has only a mere 52% completion rate to opponents
this season, lowest in the league. This has been a troublesome historic
situation for St. Louis. The Rams are 0-17-1 ATS (-9.6 ppg)
in database history (since 1989) as a home dog of more than four
points when not off a Thursday game if facing a team that has allowed
less than 61% completions season-to-date (team=Rams and
Hand 4 Average(1.*passes@o:team and season)<61 and p:day!=Thursday).
See pg. 9 for more details.
Another home underdog database history is also going against the
Rams in this one. St. Louis is 0-11-1 ATS (-13.1 ppg) as a home dog
when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game
season-to-date if they didn’t lose by 24+ last game (team=Rams and
HD and Average(ounts@o:team and season)<4 and p:margin>-24).
St. Louis has given up 34 ppg. in these contests. New Orleans has
only punted 3.38 times per game this season.
New Orleans scored 30 points in their win over Carolina last week
but that was less than the 32 points that were expected. The Saints
are 11-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since October 18, 1992 as a favorite with a
total of at least 35, the week after a win in which their dps was negative
(team=Saints and F and total>=35 and p:W and NB and p:dps<0
and 19921018<=date).
In that win over Carolina, New Orleans fierce defense only got
to Jake Delhomme for two sacks. The Saints are 10-0-1 ATS (10.3
ppg) since September 21, 2008 after a conference game which they
had less than three sacks (p:conference=po:conference and p:sacks<3
and team=Saints and 20080921<=date).
Against the three worst teams the Rams have played (Detroit, Washington,
and Jacksonville), they’ve covered against all three, beating the
Lions and losing to Washington and Jacksonville by a field goal or
less. Against the five other teams they’ve played, St. Louis has lost by
19, 28, 28, 35, and 36 points, failing to cover in all five. Against the
undefeated Saints, the Rams will simply be outclassed.
SBB PREDICTION: New Orleans 38, ST LOUIS 10
Top Total
4-STAR Kansas City and Oakland Under 36.5 – SBB liked the
under in the first game these teams played this season. That game,
Oakland won 13-10, going well under the total. Those 23 points
include 14 scored in the last five minutes of the game, as for the first
three and a half quarters, neither team found the endzone. We expect
a similar kind of game in this one.
The Raiders are coming off a bye and previous played San Diego
in a 24-16 loss. In that game Oakland held the ball for 29:31
and only sacked Phillip Rivers once. The Black and Silver are 0-15
(-11.2 ppg) OU since October 15, 2006 after a non-Thursday game
which they held the ball less than 30 minutes and had less than 3
(team=Raiders and p:TOP<=1800 and p:sacks<3 and p:day!=Thursday
and 20061015<=date).
The Raiders limited the turnovers to two for the game but still
trailed by 11 at half. Oakland is 0-9 (-9.3 ppg) since October 22,
2006 after a game which they trailed by a TD+ at half and turned
the ball over no more than twice (team=Raiders and p:M2<=-7 and
p:TO<=2 and 20061022<=date).
Kansas City is playing on the road for the second straight game
after losing in Jacksonville last week, 24-21. The Chiefs are 0-10 OU
(-7.5 ppg) since November 14, 1999 as a road dog after playing on the
road as a dog (team=Chiefs and AD and p:AD and 19991114<=date).
Oakland is a total embarrassment on the offensive end and only
averages 216 yards per game, dead last in the league. For the Chiefs,
this has meant a grind it out sort of game. Kansas City is 0-8 OU
(-11.5 ppg) since December 20, 1998 as a dog when facing a team
that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-todate
(team=Chiefs and D and Average(o:TY@o:team and season)<275
and 19981220<=date).
Oakland is still dreadful throwing the ball and the Chiefs don’t run
or throw the ball overly well. With both teams boasting serviceable
defenses, scoring points is going to be difficult
SBB PREDICTION: Kansas City 16, OAKLAND 10
Side Play
4-STAR New Orleans -13.5 over ST. LOUIS – The Rams have been
playing teams closer lately, even winning a game. However, this is
the league leading Saints and not the lowly Lions.
New Orleans has only a mere 52% completion rate to opponents
this season, lowest in the league. This has been a troublesome historic
situation for St. Louis. The Rams are 0-17-1 ATS (-9.6 ppg)
in database history (since 1989) as a home dog of more than four
points when not off a Thursday game if facing a team that has allowed
less than 61% completions season-to-date (team=Rams and
Hand 4 Average(1.*passes@o:team and season)<61 and p:day!=Thursday).
See pg. 9 for more details.
Another home underdog database history is also going against the
Rams in this one. St. Louis is 0-11-1 ATS (-13.1 ppg) as a home dog
when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game
season-to-date if they didn’t lose by 24+ last game (team=Rams and
HD and Average(ounts@o:team and season)<4 and p:margin>-24).
St. Louis has given up 34 ppg. in these contests. New Orleans has
only punted 3.38 times per game this season.
New Orleans scored 30 points in their win over Carolina last week
but that was less than the 32 points that were expected. The Saints
are 11-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since October 18, 1992 as a favorite with a
total of at least 35, the week after a win in which their dps was negative
(team=Saints and F and total>=35 and p:W and NB and p:dps<0
and 19921018<=date).
In that win over Carolina, New Orleans fierce defense only got
to Jake Delhomme for two sacks. The Saints are 10-0-1 ATS (10.3
ppg) since September 21, 2008 after a conference game which they
had less than three sacks (p:conference=po:conference and p:sacks<3
and team=Saints and 20080921<=date).
Against the three worst teams the Rams have played (Detroit, Washington,
and Jacksonville), they’ve covered against all three, beating the
Lions and losing to Washington and Jacksonville by a field goal or
less. Against the five other teams they’ve played, St. Louis has lost by
19, 28, 28, 35, and 36 points, failing to cover in all five. Against the
undefeated Saints, the Rams will simply be outclassed.
SBB PREDICTION: New Orleans 38, ST LOUIS 10
Top Total
4-STAR Kansas City and Oakland Under 36.5 – SBB liked the
under in the first game these teams played this season. That game,
Oakland won 13-10, going well under the total. Those 23 points
include 14 scored in the last five minutes of the game, as for the first
three and a half quarters, neither team found the endzone. We expect
a similar kind of game in this one.
The Raiders are coming off a bye and previous played San Diego
in a 24-16 loss. In that game Oakland held the ball for 29:31
and only sacked Phillip Rivers once. The Black and Silver are 0-15
(-11.2 ppg) OU since October 15, 2006 after a non-Thursday game
which they held the ball less than 30 minutes and had less than 3
(team=Raiders and p:TOP<=1800 and p:sacks<3 and p:day!=Thursday
and 20061015<=date).
The Raiders limited the turnovers to two for the game but still
trailed by 11 at half. Oakland is 0-9 (-9.3 ppg) since October 22,
2006 after a game which they trailed by a TD+ at half and turned
the ball over no more than twice (team=Raiders and p:M2<=-7 and
p:TO<=2 and 20061022<=date).
Kansas City is playing on the road for the second straight game
after losing in Jacksonville last week, 24-21. The Chiefs are 0-10 OU
(-7.5 ppg) since November 14, 1999 as a road dog after playing on the
road as a dog (team=Chiefs and AD and p:AD and 19991114<=date).
Oakland is a total embarrassment on the offensive end and only
averages 216 yards per game, dead last in the league. For the Chiefs,
this has meant a grind it out sort of game. Kansas City is 0-8 OU
(-11.5 ppg) since December 20, 1998 as a dog when facing a team
that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-todate
(team=Chiefs and D and Average(o:TY@o:team and season)<275
and 19981220<=date).
Oakland is still dreadful throwing the ball and the Chiefs don’t run
or throw the ball overly well. With both teams boasting serviceable
defenses, scoring points is going to be difficult
SBB PREDICTION: Kansas City 16, OAKLAND 10
Randall the Handle
SAN DIEGO –1 over Philadelphia PINNACLE
The Chargers have been a second-half team for years and as it turns out, this year has been no different. Suddenly this team has become very dangerous indeed and you can double that on its own turf. In a year in which it’s hard to distinguish which teams are imposters and which are contenders, the Eagles have joined the ranks of the former. Let’s go back three weeks to the Eagles Monday night win in Washington in which they were outscored in the second half 7-0. Not only did they not score but they failed to run a single play inside the red-zone because they could not get there. They were fortunate to come up with three big plays otherwise they’d be 4-4. The Eagles followed that up with a blowout win over the Giants but the G-Men are a complete grease-fire at the moment. Last week the Eagles played Dallas in Philadelphia and lost 20-16. So, to recap the Eagles season, they have wins over the free-falling Giants, the underachieving Panthers, K.C, the Bucs and the aforementioned Redskins. The latter three are a combined 4-20. The Eagles last visit to the West Coast was on Oct 18 when they went into Oakland and lost as a 14-point favorite. This game also follows three games in a row against division rivals Washington, the Giants and Dallas. The two playoff teams the Eagles have faced this season, the Saints and Boys, the Eagles lost them both, the former by a score of 48-22. If you make one bet this week, make it this one, as the Chargers are this week’s biggest underlay against these imposters from Philly. Play: San Diego –1 (Risking 2.7 units to win 2.5).
MIAMI –10 over Tampa Bay PINNACLE
The Dolphins offense is not conducive to laying 10 points but this one looks pretty good when you consider that the Dolphins are off a loss while the Bucs are off a huge emotional win over the Pack. Miami is now 3-5 and can’t afford to be taking any team lightly. The Aquas still have playoff aspirations and after completing perhaps the toughest first-half schedule in the business, they’ll be well-prepped and battle tested to face this weak intruder. The Dolphins have already played New England, San Diego, New Orleans, Indy and the Jets twice and there’s a good chance all of those teams will get to the post-season and an even better chance that one of them will win the Super Bowl. Miami has not looked a bit out of place in any of those games against the best the league has to offer. This is a quality Dolphins team with the best running attack in the league and a very decent defense as well. The Bucs had a good win last week but it came as a result of some pitiful play and unforgiving mistakes by the Green Bay Packers. Blocked punts, stupid penalties, turnovers and just a complete lack of focus allowed the Bucs to win its first game of the year. Asking this team, with a rookie QB making his first road start, to stay within this range is a tall task indeed. Josh Freeman went just 14-31 with one pick and now things are about to get a lot tougher on the road. Miami should dominate time of possession and chew up yards on the ground against this brutal defense that can’t stop the marching band. Miami has had so many tough games and they’ve looked good even in its losses. They’re in no position to come up soft and they won’t. Play: Miami –10 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
SAN DIEGO –1 over Philadelphia PINNACLE
The Chargers have been a second-half team for years and as it turns out, this year has been no different. Suddenly this team has become very dangerous indeed and you can double that on its own turf. In a year in which it’s hard to distinguish which teams are imposters and which are contenders, the Eagles have joined the ranks of the former. Let’s go back three weeks to the Eagles Monday night win in Washington in which they were outscored in the second half 7-0. Not only did they not score but they failed to run a single play inside the red-zone because they could not get there. They were fortunate to come up with three big plays otherwise they’d be 4-4. The Eagles followed that up with a blowout win over the Giants but the G-Men are a complete grease-fire at the moment. Last week the Eagles played Dallas in Philadelphia and lost 20-16. So, to recap the Eagles season, they have wins over the free-falling Giants, the underachieving Panthers, K.C, the Bucs and the aforementioned Redskins. The latter three are a combined 4-20. The Eagles last visit to the West Coast was on Oct 18 when they went into Oakland and lost as a 14-point favorite. This game also follows three games in a row against division rivals Washington, the Giants and Dallas. The two playoff teams the Eagles have faced this season, the Saints and Boys, the Eagles lost them both, the former by a score of 48-22. If you make one bet this week, make it this one, as the Chargers are this week’s biggest underlay against these imposters from Philly. Play: San Diego –1 (Risking 2.7 units to win 2.5).
MIAMI –10 over Tampa Bay PINNACLE
The Dolphins offense is not conducive to laying 10 points but this one looks pretty good when you consider that the Dolphins are off a loss while the Bucs are off a huge emotional win over the Pack. Miami is now 3-5 and can’t afford to be taking any team lightly. The Aquas still have playoff aspirations and after completing perhaps the toughest first-half schedule in the business, they’ll be well-prepped and battle tested to face this weak intruder. The Dolphins have already played New England, San Diego, New Orleans, Indy and the Jets twice and there’s a good chance all of those teams will get to the post-season and an even better chance that one of them will win the Super Bowl. Miami has not looked a bit out of place in any of those games against the best the league has to offer. This is a quality Dolphins team with the best running attack in the league and a very decent defense as well. The Bucs had a good win last week but it came as a result of some pitiful play and unforgiving mistakes by the Green Bay Packers. Blocked punts, stupid penalties, turnovers and just a complete lack of focus allowed the Bucs to win its first game of the year. Asking this team, with a rookie QB making his first road start, to stay within this range is a tall task indeed. Josh Freeman went just 14-31 with one pick and now things are about to get a lot tougher on the road. Miami should dominate time of possession and chew up yards on the ground against this brutal defense that can’t stop the marching band. Miami has had so many tough games and they’ve looked good even in its losses. They’re in no position to come up soft and they won’t. Play: Miami –10 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 10
Recapping Last Week
In an overall dismal NFL season, NFL Week 9 was a bright spot for the sportsbook industry; most books reported retaining 2-4 % of their handle. Tampa Bay pulling off a stunning victory over Green Bay broke up a lot of parlays and teasers. Other big games for the sportsbook were Tennessee winning outright over San Fran and Dallas winning on the road against Philly...both games were last week's Games to Watch picks. The sportsbooks were also aided by the fact that two of the worst teams in the NFL, Cleveland and St Louis, had a bye-week.
Our Games to Watch continued it's positive momentum, posting a 2-1 record. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public had a losing Sunday, going 2-4. For the season, that makes the Public an impressive 40-30 = 57.1%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the first half of the NFL season has gone the way of the "Square."
View Last Week’s Column:
Sports Marketwatch - Sports Betting News Info from Sportsbooks Betting Industry
NFL Week 10 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate any game involving Cleveland, Washington, St Louis, Tampa Bay, or Detroit to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handles to increase this week with some marquee match-ups, plus the start of Thursday night games. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Denver Broncos vs. Washington Redskins
Long-time readers of our "Games to Watch" know that we often need bad teams to do good things. This game is a great example of this contrarian theme. We have the last-place Redskins taking on the first-place Broncos. The point spread is a relatively low 4.5 points -- so many bettors figure they should give the points and take "first-place" over "last-place." To some bettors, this looks like a "soft line" -- too easy to win.
However, when something looks too easy, it probably isn't. Indeed, the "smart money" has been getting down on Washington since the line opened at Washington +4.5. Even with almost every bet (83% or 5 out of every 6 bets!) coming down on Denver, the line moved from Washington +4.5 down to Washington +3.5. This means that some "big money" is coming down hard on the Washington Redskins. "Reverse line movement" has been one of the best indicators for Sports Marketwatch and SportsInsights.com. A "Smart Money play" triggered on Washington by WSEX (13-6, +6 units). If you shop around, you can still grab a 4.5 at SportsInteraction, one of the better sportsbooks use when "betting against the Public."
Washington Redskins +4.5 -105 (Bet at Sports Interaction +4.5 -105)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
A few of the linesmen we spoke to said that they would be watching this game closely. This is currently one of the heaviest-bet games of the week and more than 3 out of every 4 bets are landing on the Dallas Cowboys. With the Public overwhelmingly on Dallas, the line has been pushed from Dallas -1 to Dallas -3. This kind of line movement means that there is some value on Green Bay. We'll take the Packers and "bet against the Public" -- joining the sportsbooks, long-term winners in the sports betting marketplace.
This is a classic example of buying low and selling high. We like the fact that we are "selling" Dallas after a big road win over Philly -- and "buying" Green Bay after their crushing defeat against the lowly Tampa Bay Bucs. Dallas has won four in a row, while Green Bay has lost two in a row. Take the undervalued Packers over the currently overvalued Cowboys. SportsInsights also had a Smart Money play triggered on Green Bay by Carib Sports (19-8, +9.7 units).
Green Bay Packers +3 (Bet at Bodog +3 -115)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Yes, folks, we're putting our hard-earned money on the NFL's worst team: the Cleveland Browns! You sometimes need an iron stomach and nerves of steel to follow our Games to Watch feature. We circled Cleveland for a couple of reasons. First, we like the fact that Cleveland is coming off a much-needed bye week. In addition, this match-up is featured on national television -- on Monday Night Football -- and is a home game for Cleveland. The crowd will be "juiced" -- adding motivation for Cleveland to come out and play some football.
An overwhelming percentage of bets (85%) are taking the heavily-favored Ravens. Even so, there has been a hint of "reverse line movement." This shows that Smart Money has come in on Cleveland -- pushing the line from +11 to +10.5 at several sportsbooks. We'll "bet against the Public" and join the "sharps" in taking a double-digit home underdog.
Cleveland Browns +11 (Bet at BetUS +11 -110)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (15-12, 55.5%)
Washington Redskins +4.5 -110 (Bet at Sports Interaction +4.5 -110)
Green Bay Packers +3 (Bet at Bodog +3 -115)
Cleveland Browns +11 (Bet at BetUS +11 -110)
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
Recapping Last Week
In an overall dismal NFL season, NFL Week 9 was a bright spot for the sportsbook industry; most books reported retaining 2-4 % of their handle. Tampa Bay pulling off a stunning victory over Green Bay broke up a lot of parlays and teasers. Other big games for the sportsbook were Tennessee winning outright over San Fran and Dallas winning on the road against Philly...both games were last week's Games to Watch picks. The sportsbooks were also aided by the fact that two of the worst teams in the NFL, Cleveland and St Louis, had a bye-week.
Our Games to Watch continued it's positive momentum, posting a 2-1 record. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public had a losing Sunday, going 2-4. For the season, that makes the Public an impressive 40-30 = 57.1%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the first half of the NFL season has gone the way of the "Square."
View Last Week’s Column:
Sports Marketwatch - Sports Betting News Info from Sportsbooks Betting Industry
NFL Week 10 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate any game involving Cleveland, Washington, St Louis, Tampa Bay, or Detroit to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handles to increase this week with some marquee match-ups, plus the start of Thursday night games. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Denver Broncos vs. Washington Redskins
Long-time readers of our "Games to Watch" know that we often need bad teams to do good things. This game is a great example of this contrarian theme. We have the last-place Redskins taking on the first-place Broncos. The point spread is a relatively low 4.5 points -- so many bettors figure they should give the points and take "first-place" over "last-place." To some bettors, this looks like a "soft line" -- too easy to win.
However, when something looks too easy, it probably isn't. Indeed, the "smart money" has been getting down on Washington since the line opened at Washington +4.5. Even with almost every bet (83% or 5 out of every 6 bets!) coming down on Denver, the line moved from Washington +4.5 down to Washington +3.5. This means that some "big money" is coming down hard on the Washington Redskins. "Reverse line movement" has been one of the best indicators for Sports Marketwatch and SportsInsights.com. A "Smart Money play" triggered on Washington by WSEX (13-6, +6 units). If you shop around, you can still grab a 4.5 at SportsInteraction, one of the better sportsbooks use when "betting against the Public."
Washington Redskins +4.5 -105 (Bet at Sports Interaction +4.5 -105)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
A few of the linesmen we spoke to said that they would be watching this game closely. This is currently one of the heaviest-bet games of the week and more than 3 out of every 4 bets are landing on the Dallas Cowboys. With the Public overwhelmingly on Dallas, the line has been pushed from Dallas -1 to Dallas -3. This kind of line movement means that there is some value on Green Bay. We'll take the Packers and "bet against the Public" -- joining the sportsbooks, long-term winners in the sports betting marketplace.
This is a classic example of buying low and selling high. We like the fact that we are "selling" Dallas after a big road win over Philly -- and "buying" Green Bay after their crushing defeat against the lowly Tampa Bay Bucs. Dallas has won four in a row, while Green Bay has lost two in a row. Take the undervalued Packers over the currently overvalued Cowboys. SportsInsights also had a Smart Money play triggered on Green Bay by Carib Sports (19-8, +9.7 units).
Green Bay Packers +3 (Bet at Bodog +3 -115)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Yes, folks, we're putting our hard-earned money on the NFL's worst team: the Cleveland Browns! You sometimes need an iron stomach and nerves of steel to follow our Games to Watch feature. We circled Cleveland for a couple of reasons. First, we like the fact that Cleveland is coming off a much-needed bye week. In addition, this match-up is featured on national television -- on Monday Night Football -- and is a home game for Cleveland. The crowd will be "juiced" -- adding motivation for Cleveland to come out and play some football.
An overwhelming percentage of bets (85%) are taking the heavily-favored Ravens. Even so, there has been a hint of "reverse line movement." This shows that Smart Money has come in on Cleveland -- pushing the line from +11 to +10.5 at several sportsbooks. We'll "bet against the Public" and join the "sharps" in taking a double-digit home underdog.
Cleveland Browns +11 (Bet at BetUS +11 -110)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (15-12, 55.5%)
Washington Redskins +4.5 -110 (Bet at Sports Interaction +4.5 -110)
Green Bay Packers +3 (Bet at Bodog +3 -115)
Cleveland Browns +11 (Bet at BetUS +11 -110)
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
Ben West Sports
NFL
5* Minnesota Vikings (-17)
4* Cincinnati Bengals (+7)
4* New Orleans Saints (-14)
3* Tennessee Titans (-8.5)
3* Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
3* Arizona Cardinals (-8.5)
NCAA FB
3* East Carolina (+4)
NBA
3* Detroit Pistons (+4.5)
3* Oklahoma City Thunder (-6)
NHL
3* Atlanta Thrashers (-155)
Canadian Football League Playoffs
3* Hamilton (-3.5)
3* Calgary (-6)
NCAA BB
3* Wake Forest (-16)
3* Harvard (-3.5)
3* North Carolina (-22)
3* Cal Poly S.L.O. (+17)
3* Arizona (-16.5)
NFL
5* Minnesota Vikings (-17)
4* Cincinnati Bengals (+7)
4* New Orleans Saints (-14)
3* Tennessee Titans (-8.5)
3* Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
3* Arizona Cardinals (-8.5)
NCAA FB
3* East Carolina (+4)
NBA
3* Detroit Pistons (+4.5)
3* Oklahoma City Thunder (-6)
NHL
3* Atlanta Thrashers (-155)
Canadian Football League Playoffs
3* Hamilton (-3.5)
3* Calgary (-6)
NCAA BB
3* Wake Forest (-16)
3* Harvard (-3.5)
3* North Carolina (-22)
3* Cal Poly S.L.O. (+17)
3* Arizona (-16.5)
R.Vinciletti Sunday NFL System Club play
On Sunday the system Club play is on the St. Louis Rams. Game 226 at 1:00 eastern. The Rams have the extra week here to figure out how to slowdown the vaunted Saints offense. What we want to do is play on home dogs with rest at +6 or more vs an opponent who played last week. These rested home dogs are 24-5 ats. The Saints fit a negative system as well. What we want to do is play against road favorites off a home favored win and spread loss if today's opponent won their last game on the road. This system is 3-19 ats going against the favored Saints. The Rams 5-1 ats off a dog win and have covered 10 of the last 13 times after allowing 10 or less points. They will try to get their ground game going with S. Jackson and keep the Saints offense off the field. Look for them to stay within the 13.5 points today. In late phone action I have a 30-3 five unit system play that dates to 1980,a 21-2 Dog of the week and a Triple system blowout side. Last week late phone plays went 3-1.On Saturday we cashed again picking up 6 units. This Sunday will be even Bigger with two 5 stars. Hoops will be on second report today.For the system club play we have the Spirit of ST. Louis. Take the Rams. R.Vinciletti
On Sunday the system Club play is on the St. Louis Rams. Game 226 at 1:00 eastern. The Rams have the extra week here to figure out how to slowdown the vaunted Saints offense. What we want to do is play on home dogs with rest at +6 or more vs an opponent who played last week. These rested home dogs are 24-5 ats. The Saints fit a negative system as well. What we want to do is play against road favorites off a home favored win and spread loss if today's opponent won their last game on the road. This system is 3-19 ats going against the favored Saints. The Rams 5-1 ats off a dog win and have covered 10 of the last 13 times after allowing 10 or less points. They will try to get their ground game going with S. Jackson and keep the Saints offense off the field. Look for them to stay within the 13.5 points today. In late phone action I have a 30-3 five unit system play that dates to 1980,a 21-2 Dog of the week and a Triple system blowout side. Last week late phone plays went 3-1.On Saturday we cashed again picking up 6 units. This Sunday will be even Bigger with two 5 stars. Hoops will be on second report today.For the system club play we have the Spirit of ST. Louis. Take the Rams. R.Vinciletti
Dominic Fazzini
Dominic Fazzini Sunday's plays 25 Dime -- Saints (minus points vs. RAMS)
SAINTS
Analysis upcoming
10 Dime -- Broncos (minus points vs. REDSKINS)
BRONCOS
Look for Denver to re-establish its running game today with Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter after getting away from it during its two-game losing streak.
Washington's defense allowed a season-high 181 rushing yards last week in its 31-17 loss to Atlanta, and it's starting to wear down in an atttempt to carry the load for a bad team.
The Redskins are averaging just 14.1 points per game, and they haven't scored more than 17 in a game all season. Now they have to face a the NFL's third-ranked defense without two of their top offensive weapons, running back Clinton Portis and tight end Chris Cooley.
Denver allows just 15.5 points and 280.2 yards per game, and should have a relatively easy time rattling Redskins QB Jason Campbell, who has thrown eight interceptions and been sacked 25 times, the third-highest total in the league. The Broncos rank third in the NFL with 26 sacks.
Denver is 3-1 SU on the road and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall. Washington is 1-4-1 in its last six games as a home underdog, 0-4 ATS in its last four home games and 2-11-3 in its last 16 games overall. The road team in this series is 4-0 ATS in the teams' last four meetings. Take the Broncos to cover the points today.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-------GL GUYS
Dominic Fazzini Sunday's plays 25 Dime -- Saints (minus points vs. RAMS)
SAINTS
Analysis upcoming
10 Dime -- Broncos (minus points vs. REDSKINS)
BRONCOS
Look for Denver to re-establish its running game today with Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter after getting away from it during its two-game losing streak.
Washington's defense allowed a season-high 181 rushing yards last week in its 31-17 loss to Atlanta, and it's starting to wear down in an atttempt to carry the load for a bad team.
The Redskins are averaging just 14.1 points per game, and they haven't scored more than 17 in a game all season. Now they have to face a the NFL's third-ranked defense without two of their top offensive weapons, running back Clinton Portis and tight end Chris Cooley.
Denver allows just 15.5 points and 280.2 yards per game, and should have a relatively easy time rattling Redskins QB Jason Campbell, who has thrown eight interceptions and been sacked 25 times, the third-highest total in the league. The Broncos rank third in the NFL with 26 sacks.
Denver is 3-1 SU on the road and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall. Washington is 1-4-1 in its last six games as a home underdog, 0-4 ATS in its last four home games and 2-11-3 in its last 16 games overall. The road team in this series is 4-0 ATS in the teams' last four meetings. Take the Broncos to cover the points today.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-------GL GUYS
Craig Davis
Sunday's Lineup
40 Dime --- RAMS (Buy the 1/2 point up if your line is +14 or if it drops to +13 1/2)
20 Dime --- EAST CAROLINA (Buy the 1/2 point if your line is +4)
BENGALS (Buy the 1/2 point)
RAMS (buy the half point if your line is +14 or if it drops to +13 1/2) --- Still trying to recover from that absolute screw job I got on Saturday, and I plan to do it with the St. Louis Rams PLUS the points over the New Orleans Saints today. I realize the Saints are the "sexy" pick this year, scoring points at will against anyone who stands in their way, including several comeback wins when they are trailing at halftime. But I think we catch New Orleans a little flat in this spot after so many hard-fought come-from-behind games lately. After winning (and covering) their first six games of the season, the Saints have struggled to cover the last two double-digit numbers they've given... and both of those games were at home.
Now Vegas is asking them to go on the road and win by more than two touchdowns. Are they capable of doing that? Sure they are, if you consider they average 35 PPG... more than anyone else in the league. But recent history is against them in this series. Not since 1998 have the Saints beaten the Rams by more than 14 points and the Rams have actually won 2 straight vs. the Saints and 3 of the last 4 SU. Yes, I realize this is a bad Rams team and the Saints are probably better than they were in those previous meetings, but the numbers don't lie, and this day and age when underdogs are making a comeback, I think getting anything more than 10 points is a bonus.
And like I previously mentioned, let's also keep in mind that the Saints could find themselves in a very flat spot here knowing they just came off two grueling home wins vs. Atlanta and Carolina and a possible look-ahead game vs. the Patriots coming up in a few weeks. For now, New Orleans has two very winnable games at St. Louis and at Tampa Bay, and I can't help but think they are looking past these two opponents in preparation for that big home showdown with the Pats. I'm not saying they're taking St. Louis lightly, but they are human and realize it would take a complete meltdown on their part to lose this game, so to expect them to come out all fired up is a bit premature... no one gets excited to play the Rams.
I'd like you to also remember the Saints aren't 100% healthy this week, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if HC Sean Payton sits (rests) a few of his key players to make sure they are healthy for the stretch run. WR Lance Moore likely won't play with an ankle injury. Marques Colston and TE Jeremy Shockey have missed practice this week with flu-like symptoms, but H1N1 has been ruled out. Starting CB Jabari Greer, who's been the most consistent lockdown corner the Saints have had all year, won't be ready for today's game with a bum groin suffered in last week's win over Carolina. LB Scott Fujita and S Darren Sharper have both been limited in practice this week and could be limited in today's game as well. There are others, but I won't bore you with the details. Just know that the Saints are far from 100% today and it could force them to play conservative, keeping the ball on the ground and settling for field goals instead of touchdowns.
As for St. Louis, the writing is on the wall for their game plan... a heavy dose of Steven Jackson mixed in with the occasional run from FB Mike Karney. Why Karney? Because he was released by the Saints and claimed by the Rams this season, meaning he has every reason in the world to play the best game of his career. If Karney and Jackson can provide a spark in the running game (and they should all be much healthier after the bye week), the Rams will milk the clock, keep Brees and company on the sidelines, and make this a low scoring game. Also remember this... as of late, when the Saints get the lead they seem to sit on it. They aren't going for the jugular as much anymore and that's very good news for our side. Top play of the day on the St. Louis Rams PLUS the points over the Saints.
EAST CAROLINA --- Let me first suggest that you wait until the very last minute to bet this game. It opened at Tulsa -6 and has since gone down to -4 or -4.5 in a few spots, telling me it's probably going to go back up as some of the money starts pouring in on Tulsa. Let it pour, because the Tulsa money is the wrong side. Let me take you back to the Houston/Tulsa game last Saturday. A game Tulsa has prepared for the last two weeks. A game they knew they could win... and a win that would get them one game closer to bowl eligibility. You should know the rest of the story. Houston scored a TD with :21 seconds left, but failed to convert the two-point conversion. Tulsa fans, with their team up two, were ecstatic. The players could see the light at the end of the tunnel. All their hard work and dedication and preparation had actually paid off against a ranked team at home. Houston had rolled through the likes of Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Mississippi State. They had one of the best offenses in the country. Beating these guys would be a great reward to an otherwise disappointing season. Well, apparently it wasn't to be because the Cougars executed a pretty good onside kick, recovered the ball, and two plays later they were kicking the game-winning, 51-yard field goal as time expired.
The air was let out of the sails. The season was all but over. That loss left a scar on this senior class that will never go away, so to expect them to "get up" for a game with defensive-minded East Carolina tonight is a bit of a stretch. How can we ask these kids, who spent so much energy fighting for last week's game, to get the job done tonight against a team that plays better defense than any team Tulsa has faced this year other than Oklahoma? And let's not forget what the Sooners did to the Hurricane in that one (a 45-0 shutout). ECU comes in getting extra rest having not played since last Thursday... a 16-3 loss to ACC power Virginia Tech. Tonight the Tulsa defense will look like a high school team compared to the team they last faced, and I expect a healthy split of pass and run with very good success. The Pirates pass for nearly 200 yards per game while running for about 150 per game, and last I checked Tulsa doesn't play much defense in either facet. I wouldn't be surprised if East Carolina won this game outright, but since yesterday was such a freaking joke of a train wreck, we'll play the line and count the cash.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (be safe and buy the half point) --- Lovin' the underdogs today as pups have come out of the closet recently, getting Vegas back on track after a slow start to the season. Cincy has been a fun team to watch this year, winning games they probably shouldn't while losing games they should have probably won. We all remember that miracle Denver win back in Week 1. We also remember the Texans coming into Cincy in Week 7 and laying the beat-down on the Bengals in the second half. But despite it all, the Bengals are 6-2 on the season and a perfect 3-0 on the road. It's quite amazing if you think about it, but the Bengals have already beaten the Ravens twice this year, and with a win today will be 4-0 against both the Ravens and Steelers. Asking the Steelers to win this game by more than 7 points is asking a bit much, so that's why I'm taking the road team here.
The visitor has won this meeting seven of the last 10 times and has covered 11 of the last 15. Cincy has also been very good on the Vegas line this year, having covered 5 of their last 7 ball games including two in a row. We have a Pittsburgh team, fresh off a Monday night road win (and cover) over the Denver Broncos, expected to come back home on a short week and beat Cincy by more than a touchdown. Isn't that asking a bit much? Cincinnati has only been beaten twice this year because they play very sound defense and they run the ball exceptionally well. Cedric Benson and Rashard Mendenhall will be trying to "one up" each other much of the day, which leads me to believe this game is going to be very physical... back to the old school days of when the Steelers used to play smash-mouth football. Pittsburgh might very well win this game, but it's not going to be by more than a field goal or so. Bonus play on the Bengals plus the number.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------GL GUYS
Sunday's Lineup
40 Dime --- RAMS (Buy the 1/2 point up if your line is +14 or if it drops to +13 1/2)
20 Dime --- EAST CAROLINA (Buy the 1/2 point if your line is +4)
BENGALS (Buy the 1/2 point)
RAMS (buy the half point if your line is +14 or if it drops to +13 1/2) --- Still trying to recover from that absolute screw job I got on Saturday, and I plan to do it with the St. Louis Rams PLUS the points over the New Orleans Saints today. I realize the Saints are the "sexy" pick this year, scoring points at will against anyone who stands in their way, including several comeback wins when they are trailing at halftime. But I think we catch New Orleans a little flat in this spot after so many hard-fought come-from-behind games lately. After winning (and covering) their first six games of the season, the Saints have struggled to cover the last two double-digit numbers they've given... and both of those games were at home.
Now Vegas is asking them to go on the road and win by more than two touchdowns. Are they capable of doing that? Sure they are, if you consider they average 35 PPG... more than anyone else in the league. But recent history is against them in this series. Not since 1998 have the Saints beaten the Rams by more than 14 points and the Rams have actually won 2 straight vs. the Saints and 3 of the last 4 SU. Yes, I realize this is a bad Rams team and the Saints are probably better than they were in those previous meetings, but the numbers don't lie, and this day and age when underdogs are making a comeback, I think getting anything more than 10 points is a bonus.
And like I previously mentioned, let's also keep in mind that the Saints could find themselves in a very flat spot here knowing they just came off two grueling home wins vs. Atlanta and Carolina and a possible look-ahead game vs. the Patriots coming up in a few weeks. For now, New Orleans has two very winnable games at St. Louis and at Tampa Bay, and I can't help but think they are looking past these two opponents in preparation for that big home showdown with the Pats. I'm not saying they're taking St. Louis lightly, but they are human and realize it would take a complete meltdown on their part to lose this game, so to expect them to come out all fired up is a bit premature... no one gets excited to play the Rams.
I'd like you to also remember the Saints aren't 100% healthy this week, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if HC Sean Payton sits (rests) a few of his key players to make sure they are healthy for the stretch run. WR Lance Moore likely won't play with an ankle injury. Marques Colston and TE Jeremy Shockey have missed practice this week with flu-like symptoms, but H1N1 has been ruled out. Starting CB Jabari Greer, who's been the most consistent lockdown corner the Saints have had all year, won't be ready for today's game with a bum groin suffered in last week's win over Carolina. LB Scott Fujita and S Darren Sharper have both been limited in practice this week and could be limited in today's game as well. There are others, but I won't bore you with the details. Just know that the Saints are far from 100% today and it could force them to play conservative, keeping the ball on the ground and settling for field goals instead of touchdowns.
As for St. Louis, the writing is on the wall for their game plan... a heavy dose of Steven Jackson mixed in with the occasional run from FB Mike Karney. Why Karney? Because he was released by the Saints and claimed by the Rams this season, meaning he has every reason in the world to play the best game of his career. If Karney and Jackson can provide a spark in the running game (and they should all be much healthier after the bye week), the Rams will milk the clock, keep Brees and company on the sidelines, and make this a low scoring game. Also remember this... as of late, when the Saints get the lead they seem to sit on it. They aren't going for the jugular as much anymore and that's very good news for our side. Top play of the day on the St. Louis Rams PLUS the points over the Saints.
EAST CAROLINA --- Let me first suggest that you wait until the very last minute to bet this game. It opened at Tulsa -6 and has since gone down to -4 or -4.5 in a few spots, telling me it's probably going to go back up as some of the money starts pouring in on Tulsa. Let it pour, because the Tulsa money is the wrong side. Let me take you back to the Houston/Tulsa game last Saturday. A game Tulsa has prepared for the last two weeks. A game they knew they could win... and a win that would get them one game closer to bowl eligibility. You should know the rest of the story. Houston scored a TD with :21 seconds left, but failed to convert the two-point conversion. Tulsa fans, with their team up two, were ecstatic. The players could see the light at the end of the tunnel. All their hard work and dedication and preparation had actually paid off against a ranked team at home. Houston had rolled through the likes of Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Mississippi State. They had one of the best offenses in the country. Beating these guys would be a great reward to an otherwise disappointing season. Well, apparently it wasn't to be because the Cougars executed a pretty good onside kick, recovered the ball, and two plays later they were kicking the game-winning, 51-yard field goal as time expired.
The air was let out of the sails. The season was all but over. That loss left a scar on this senior class that will never go away, so to expect them to "get up" for a game with defensive-minded East Carolina tonight is a bit of a stretch. How can we ask these kids, who spent so much energy fighting for last week's game, to get the job done tonight against a team that plays better defense than any team Tulsa has faced this year other than Oklahoma? And let's not forget what the Sooners did to the Hurricane in that one (a 45-0 shutout). ECU comes in getting extra rest having not played since last Thursday... a 16-3 loss to ACC power Virginia Tech. Tonight the Tulsa defense will look like a high school team compared to the team they last faced, and I expect a healthy split of pass and run with very good success. The Pirates pass for nearly 200 yards per game while running for about 150 per game, and last I checked Tulsa doesn't play much defense in either facet. I wouldn't be surprised if East Carolina won this game outright, but since yesterday was such a freaking joke of a train wreck, we'll play the line and count the cash.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (be safe and buy the half point) --- Lovin' the underdogs today as pups have come out of the closet recently, getting Vegas back on track after a slow start to the season. Cincy has been a fun team to watch this year, winning games they probably shouldn't while losing games they should have probably won. We all remember that miracle Denver win back in Week 1. We also remember the Texans coming into Cincy in Week 7 and laying the beat-down on the Bengals in the second half. But despite it all, the Bengals are 6-2 on the season and a perfect 3-0 on the road. It's quite amazing if you think about it, but the Bengals have already beaten the Ravens twice this year, and with a win today will be 4-0 against both the Ravens and Steelers. Asking the Steelers to win this game by more than 7 points is asking a bit much, so that's why I'm taking the road team here.
The visitor has won this meeting seven of the last 10 times and has covered 11 of the last 15. Cincy has also been very good on the Vegas line this year, having covered 5 of their last 7 ball games including two in a row. We have a Pittsburgh team, fresh off a Monday night road win (and cover) over the Denver Broncos, expected to come back home on a short week and beat Cincy by more than a touchdown. Isn't that asking a bit much? Cincinnati has only been beaten twice this year because they play very sound defense and they run the ball exceptionally well. Cedric Benson and Rashard Mendenhall will be trying to "one up" each other much of the day, which leads me to believe this game is going to be very physical... back to the old school days of when the Steelers used to play smash-mouth football. Pittsburgh might very well win this game, but it's not going to be by more than a field goal or so. Bonus play on the Bengals plus the number.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------GL GUYS
