R.Vinciletti (Goldencontender) Sunday NFL System Club play
On Sunday the system Club play is on the St. Louis Rams. Game 226 at 1:00 eastern. The Rams have the extra week here to figure out how to slowdown the vaunted Saints offense. What we want to do is play on home dogs with rest at +6 or more vs an opponent who played last week. These rested home dogs are 24-5 ats. The Saints fit a negative system as well. What we want to do is play against road favorites off a home favored win and spread loss if today's opponent won their last game on the road. This system is 3-19 ats going against the favored Saints. The Rams 5-1 ats off a dog win and have covered 10 of the last 13 times after allowing 10 or less points. They will try to get their ground game going with S. Jackson and keep the Saints offense off the field. Look for them to stay within the 13.5 points today. In late phone action I have a 30-3 five unit system play that dates to 1980,a 21-2 Dog of the week and a Triple system blowout side. Last week late phone plays went 3-1.On Saturday we cashed again picking up 6 units. This Sunday will be even Bigger with two 5 stars. Hoops will be on second report today.For the system club play we have the Spirit of ST. Louis. Take the Rams. R.Vinciletti
On Sunday the system Club play is on the St. Louis Rams. Game 226 at 1:00 eastern. The Rams have the extra week here to figure out how to slowdown the vaunted Saints offense. What we want to do is play on home dogs with rest at +6 or more vs an opponent who played last week. These rested home dogs are 24-5 ats. The Saints fit a negative system as well. What we want to do is play against road favorites off a home favored win and spread loss if today's opponent won their last game on the road. This system is 3-19 ats going against the favored Saints. The Rams 5-1 ats off a dog win and have covered 10 of the last 13 times after allowing 10 or less points. They will try to get their ground game going with S. Jackson and keep the Saints offense off the field. Look for them to stay within the 13.5 points today. In late phone action I have a 30-3 five unit system play that dates to 1980,a 21-2 Dog of the week and a Triple system blowout side. Last week late phone plays went 3-1.On Saturday we cashed again picking up 6 units. This Sunday will be even Bigger with two 5 stars. Hoops will be on second report today.For the system club play we have the Spirit of ST. Louis. Take the Rams. R.Vinciletti
power sweep
4★ NY JETS over Jacksonville - The Jets are 7-0 ATS after a bye week. Since starting off the season
3-0 SU & ATS the Jets have gone 1-4 SU & ATS via a combo of TO’s & special teams blunders. In their
L3 games though the Jets have posted a 413-221 avg yd edge & the team has pulled in 10 of its 14
sacks. This is actually a good matchup for Sanchez (204 ypg 57% 3-0 L2) vs the Jags #26 pass defense
that has given up a 15-5 ratio. The Jets will fi nally have a healthy WR unit here & the matchup of the
Jets OL which has given up 15 sacks TY (#9) should dominate vs a Jags defense that is last with just 8
sacks TY (1 every 34 att’s). While the Jets may not have the sack #’s to show for it they aren’t afraid to
bring the pressure & Garrard has only avg’d 166 ypg (55%) with an 0-2 ratio (5.72 ypa) on the road TY.
This is a game where the Jets have many favorable matchups & we like their rested defense vs a Jags
team that is just 3-11 ATS outside of the division & nearly blew a 24-6 lead in the 4Q vs KC LW.
FORECAST: NY JETS 23 Jacksonville 10
3★ CAROLINA over Atlanta - The home team is 3-0 SU & ATS. ATL beat CAR 28-20 as a 6 pt HF in
the 1st meeting TY. Delhomme had his best game of the year with 308 yds (61%) with a 1-1 ratio but
ATL blocked a punt & rec’d a fmbl which they converted into 14 pts. ATL dominated WAS LW & were up
24-3 at the half with 15-3 FD & 208-69 yd edges as they KO’d Portis (concussion) & kept Campbell out
of sync all day with 5 sacks & 8 QBH’s. Ryan is only 5-7 SU/6-6 ATS on the road (vs 11-1 SU/9-3 ATS
at home) avg 223 ypg (58%) with a 15-12 ratio. ATL has played tougher road games (NE, DAL, NO)
than home games (MIA, CHI, WAS) TY & have given up 48 more ypg on the road & 12.5 more ppg.
CAR blew 14-0 & 17-3 leads & let the Saints get back into the game. CAR was outgained 406-258 after
their 1st 3 drives but they did rush for 182 yds (4.7) & Williams was down by contact when he fumbled
the ball on the CAR 1 late in the game. Delhomme didn’t turn the ball over & he should get his 2 FB’s
& WR Muhammad back here. We are not very impressed with ATL’s win over a disorganized WAS team
LW & the Falcons will fi nd CAR a much tougher foe here. FORECAST: CAROLINA 23 (+) Atlanta 17
OTHER SELECTIONS
2★ Cincinnati over PITTSBURGH - Despite being outgained 373-273 & losing the TOP edge by 9:24 the
Bengals snatched a 23-20 win from the Steelers in the 1st meeting TY as a 3 pt HD. Palmer led the team
on a 71/16pl drive for the win with :14 left. PIT was playing its 1st game without Polamalu (MCL sprain) &
on 3 drives to the CIN 6 settled for 2 FG’s & 1 TD. CIN is catching PIT at a good time as they are off LW’s
MNF road game to DEN. Its unknown if PIT will get DE Kirschke (calf) or LB Timmons (ankle sprain) back
but S Clark is expected to return. PIT has the #5 & #6 units (-4 TO’s) vs CIN #12 & #14 units (+2 TO’s) &
have won the yardage battle 414-289 on avg at home TY. CIN scored on its 1st 3 drives LW vs BAL & held
the Ravens to just 5 FD’s & 78 yds on their 1st 8 drives none of which got into CIN territory. Palmer is close
to his 2005 level & playing effi cient ball (233 ypg 58% 6-3 since GB) with the rise of RB Benson (104 ypg
4.2) keeping the offense balanced & not forcing him to do everything. PIT has been impressive stat-wise at
home TY outgaining foes 414-289 (-1 TO). However, they are only 2-5 ATS TY & the dog has covered 7 of
8 in CIN’s games TY with CIN blowing out CHI 45-10 as a pick. CIN is 4-0 SU & ATS in div play TY & are a
good “play on” team here. FORECAST: Cincinnati 24 (+) PITTSBURGH 27
2★ New Orleans over ST LOUIS - NO has massive stat edges here with #1 & #16 units (+6 TO’s) vs
STL #26 & #28 units (-7 TO’s). STL has won & covered its L2 off the bye & did get their 1st win of the
year but that was vs DET’s #35 & #26 units. STL is 0-3 SU & ATS vs teams with elite QB’s TY (GB,
MIN, IND) & while they haven’t been blown out in overall yards (390-336) they are -8 TO’s. The #22
pass defense gave up 258 ypg passing (68%) with a 6-1 ratio in those games losing by an avg of 39-11.
They face a NO team that fi nally beat John Fox in the Superdome LW. The Saints rallied from 14 down
to beat CAR LW as they outgained them 406-258 yds from that point & forced 3 TO’s (just 7 pts). NO
casually handled a similar talented DET team 45-27 as a 14 pt HF in the season opener with a 515-
231 yd edge. NO is in a letdown spot after the MIA comeback, the ATL MNF game & got the monkey
off their back vs CAR. While this is the 1st of 4 road games in 5 Wks for NO they have too much talent
here for STL to compete with. FORECAST: New Orleans 42 ST LOUIS 6
4★ NY JETS over Jacksonville - The Jets are 7-0 ATS after a bye week. Since starting off the season
3-0 SU & ATS the Jets have gone 1-4 SU & ATS via a combo of TO’s & special teams blunders. In their
L3 games though the Jets have posted a 413-221 avg yd edge & the team has pulled in 10 of its 14
sacks. This is actually a good matchup for Sanchez (204 ypg 57% 3-0 L2) vs the Jags #26 pass defense
that has given up a 15-5 ratio. The Jets will fi nally have a healthy WR unit here & the matchup of the
Jets OL which has given up 15 sacks TY (#9) should dominate vs a Jags defense that is last with just 8
sacks TY (1 every 34 att’s). While the Jets may not have the sack #’s to show for it they aren’t afraid to
bring the pressure & Garrard has only avg’d 166 ypg (55%) with an 0-2 ratio (5.72 ypa) on the road TY.
This is a game where the Jets have many favorable matchups & we like their rested defense vs a Jags
team that is just 3-11 ATS outside of the division & nearly blew a 24-6 lead in the 4Q vs KC LW.
FORECAST: NY JETS 23 Jacksonville 10
3★ CAROLINA over Atlanta - The home team is 3-0 SU & ATS. ATL beat CAR 28-20 as a 6 pt HF in
the 1st meeting TY. Delhomme had his best game of the year with 308 yds (61%) with a 1-1 ratio but
ATL blocked a punt & rec’d a fmbl which they converted into 14 pts. ATL dominated WAS LW & were up
24-3 at the half with 15-3 FD & 208-69 yd edges as they KO’d Portis (concussion) & kept Campbell out
of sync all day with 5 sacks & 8 QBH’s. Ryan is only 5-7 SU/6-6 ATS on the road (vs 11-1 SU/9-3 ATS
at home) avg 223 ypg (58%) with a 15-12 ratio. ATL has played tougher road games (NE, DAL, NO)
than home games (MIA, CHI, WAS) TY & have given up 48 more ypg on the road & 12.5 more ppg.
CAR blew 14-0 & 17-3 leads & let the Saints get back into the game. CAR was outgained 406-258 after
their 1st 3 drives but they did rush for 182 yds (4.7) & Williams was down by contact when he fumbled
the ball on the CAR 1 late in the game. Delhomme didn’t turn the ball over & he should get his 2 FB’s
& WR Muhammad back here. We are not very impressed with ATL’s win over a disorganized WAS team
LW & the Falcons will fi nd CAR a much tougher foe here. FORECAST: CAROLINA 23 (+) Atlanta 17
OTHER SELECTIONS
2★ Cincinnati over PITTSBURGH - Despite being outgained 373-273 & losing the TOP edge by 9:24 the
Bengals snatched a 23-20 win from the Steelers in the 1st meeting TY as a 3 pt HD. Palmer led the team
on a 71/16pl drive for the win with :14 left. PIT was playing its 1st game without Polamalu (MCL sprain) &
on 3 drives to the CIN 6 settled for 2 FG’s & 1 TD. CIN is catching PIT at a good time as they are off LW’s
MNF road game to DEN. Its unknown if PIT will get DE Kirschke (calf) or LB Timmons (ankle sprain) back
but S Clark is expected to return. PIT has the #5 & #6 units (-4 TO’s) vs CIN #12 & #14 units (+2 TO’s) &
have won the yardage battle 414-289 on avg at home TY. CIN scored on its 1st 3 drives LW vs BAL & held
the Ravens to just 5 FD’s & 78 yds on their 1st 8 drives none of which got into CIN territory. Palmer is close
to his 2005 level & playing effi cient ball (233 ypg 58% 6-3 since GB) with the rise of RB Benson (104 ypg
4.2) keeping the offense balanced & not forcing him to do everything. PIT has been impressive stat-wise at
home TY outgaining foes 414-289 (-1 TO). However, they are only 2-5 ATS TY & the dog has covered 7 of
8 in CIN’s games TY with CIN blowing out CHI 45-10 as a pick. CIN is 4-0 SU & ATS in div play TY & are a
good “play on” team here. FORECAST: Cincinnati 24 (+) PITTSBURGH 27
2★ New Orleans over ST LOUIS - NO has massive stat edges here with #1 & #16 units (+6 TO’s) vs
STL #26 & #28 units (-7 TO’s). STL has won & covered its L2 off the bye & did get their 1st win of the
year but that was vs DET’s #35 & #26 units. STL is 0-3 SU & ATS vs teams with elite QB’s TY (GB,
MIN, IND) & while they haven’t been blown out in overall yards (390-336) they are -8 TO’s. The #22
pass defense gave up 258 ypg passing (68%) with a 6-1 ratio in those games losing by an avg of 39-11.
They face a NO team that fi nally beat John Fox in the Superdome LW. The Saints rallied from 14 down
to beat CAR LW as they outgained them 406-258 yds from that point & forced 3 TO’s (just 7 pts). NO
casually handled a similar talented DET team 45-27 as a 14 pt HF in the season opener with a 515-
231 yd edge. NO is in a letdown spot after the MIA comeback, the ATL MNF game & got the monkey
off their back vs CAR. While this is the 1st of 4 road games in 5 Wks for NO they have too much talent
here for STL to compete with. FORECAST: New Orleans 42 ST LOUIS 6
DB Sports Consultants
Sunday, November 15, 2009
NFL
10* Denver -3.5
10* New England +3
8* Carolina +1.5
7* New Orleans -13.5
6* NY Jets -6.5
6* Dallas / Green Bay OVER 47.5
5* Kansas City +2
5* Pittsburgh -7
5* Pittsburgh / Cincinnati OVER 41.5
Hugest card I've seen DB Sports Consultants release. Must see something in this weekend!
Sunday, November 15, 2009
NFL
10* Denver -3.5
10* New England +3
8* Carolina +1.5
7* New Orleans -13.5
6* NY Jets -6.5
6* Dallas / Green Bay OVER 47.5
5* Kansas City +2
5* Pittsburgh -7
5* Pittsburgh / Cincinnati OVER 41.5
Hugest card I've seen DB Sports Consultants release. Must see something in this weekend!
SPORTS INSIGHTS
NFL Week 10 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate any game involving Cleveland, Washington, St Louis, Tampa Bay, or Detroit to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handles to increase this week with some marquee match-ups, plus the start of Thursday night games. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Denver Broncos vs. Washington Redskins
Long-time readers of our "Games to Watch" know that we often need bad teams to do good things. This game is a great example of this contrarian theme. We have the last-place Redskins taking on the first-place Broncos. The point spread is a relatively low 4.5 points -- so many bettors figure they should give the points and take "first-place" over "last-place." To some bettors, this looks like a "soft line" -- too easy to win.
However, when something looks too easy, it probably isn't. Indeed, the "smart money" has been getting down on Washington since the line opened at Washington +4.5. Even with almost every bet (83% or 5 out of every 6 bets!) coming down on Denver, the line moved from Washington +4.5 down to Washington +3.5. This means that some "big money" is coming down hard on the Washington Redskins. "Reverse line movement" has been one of the best indicators for Sports Marketwatch and SportsInsights.com. A "Smart Money play" triggered on Washington by WSEX (13-6, +6 units). If you shop around, you can still grab a 4.5 at SportsInteraction, one of the better sportsbooks use when "betting against the Public."
Washington Redskins +4.5 -105 (Bet at Sports Interaction +4.5 -105)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
A few of the linesmen we spoke to said that they would be watching this game closely. This is currently one of the heaviest-bet games of the week and more than 3 out of every 4 bets are landing on the Dallas Cowboys. With the Public overwhelmingly on Dallas, the line has been pushed from Dallas -1 to Dallas -3. This kind of line movement means that there is some value on Green Bay. We'll take the Packers and "bet against the Public" -- joining the sportsbooks, long-term winners in the sports betting marketplace.
This is a classic example of buying low and selling high. We like the fact that we are "selling" Dallas after a big road win over Philly -- and "buying" Green Bay after their crushing defeat against the lowly Tampa Bay Bucs. Dallas has won four in a row, while Green Bay has lost two in a row. Take the undervalued Packers over the currently overvalued Cowboys. SportsInsights also had a Smart Money play triggered on Green Bay by Carib Sports (19-8, +9.7 units).
Green Bay Packers +3 (Bet at bodog +3 -115)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Yes, folks, we're putting our hard-earned money on the NFL's worst team: the Cleveland Browns! You sometimes need an iron stomach and nerves of steel to follow our Games to Watch feature. We circled Cleveland for a couple of reasons. First, we like the fact that Cleveland is coming off a much-needed bye week. In addition, this match-up is featured on national television -- on Monday Night Football -- and is a home game for Cleveland. The crowd will be "juiced" -- adding motivation for Cleveland to come out and play some football.
An overwhelming percentage of bets (85%) are taking the heavily-favored Ravens. Even so, there has been a hint of "reverse line movement." This shows that Smart Money has come in on Cleveland -- pushing the line from +11 to +10.5 at several sportsbooks. We'll "bet against the Public" and join the "sharps" in taking a double-digit home underdog.
Cleveland Browns +11 (Bet at betus +11 -110)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (15-12, 55.5%)
Washington Redskins +4.5 -110 (Bet at Sports Interaction +4.5 -110)
Green Bay Packers +3 (Bet at bodog +3 -115)
Cleveland Browns +11 (Bet at betus +11 -110)
NFL Week 10 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate any game involving Cleveland, Washington, St Louis, Tampa Bay, or Detroit to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handles to increase this week with some marquee match-ups, plus the start of Thursday night games. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Denver Broncos vs. Washington Redskins
Long-time readers of our "Games to Watch" know that we often need bad teams to do good things. This game is a great example of this contrarian theme. We have the last-place Redskins taking on the first-place Broncos. The point spread is a relatively low 4.5 points -- so many bettors figure they should give the points and take "first-place" over "last-place." To some bettors, this looks like a "soft line" -- too easy to win.
However, when something looks too easy, it probably isn't. Indeed, the "smart money" has been getting down on Washington since the line opened at Washington +4.5. Even with almost every bet (83% or 5 out of every 6 bets!) coming down on Denver, the line moved from Washington +4.5 down to Washington +3.5. This means that some "big money" is coming down hard on the Washington Redskins. "Reverse line movement" has been one of the best indicators for Sports Marketwatch and SportsInsights.com. A "Smart Money play" triggered on Washington by WSEX (13-6, +6 units). If you shop around, you can still grab a 4.5 at SportsInteraction, one of the better sportsbooks use when "betting against the Public."
Washington Redskins +4.5 -105 (Bet at Sports Interaction +4.5 -105)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
A few of the linesmen we spoke to said that they would be watching this game closely. This is currently one of the heaviest-bet games of the week and more than 3 out of every 4 bets are landing on the Dallas Cowboys. With the Public overwhelmingly on Dallas, the line has been pushed from Dallas -1 to Dallas -3. This kind of line movement means that there is some value on Green Bay. We'll take the Packers and "bet against the Public" -- joining the sportsbooks, long-term winners in the sports betting marketplace.
This is a classic example of buying low and selling high. We like the fact that we are "selling" Dallas after a big road win over Philly -- and "buying" Green Bay after their crushing defeat against the lowly Tampa Bay Bucs. Dallas has won four in a row, while Green Bay has lost two in a row. Take the undervalued Packers over the currently overvalued Cowboys. SportsInsights also had a Smart Money play triggered on Green Bay by Carib Sports (19-8, +9.7 units).
Green Bay Packers +3 (Bet at bodog +3 -115)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Yes, folks, we're putting our hard-earned money on the NFL's worst team: the Cleveland Browns! You sometimes need an iron stomach and nerves of steel to follow our Games to Watch feature. We circled Cleveland for a couple of reasons. First, we like the fact that Cleveland is coming off a much-needed bye week. In addition, this match-up is featured on national television -- on Monday Night Football -- and is a home game for Cleveland. The crowd will be "juiced" -- adding motivation for Cleveland to come out and play some football.
An overwhelming percentage of bets (85%) are taking the heavily-favored Ravens. Even so, there has been a hint of "reverse line movement." This shows that Smart Money has come in on Cleveland -- pushing the line from +11 to +10.5 at several sportsbooks. We'll "bet against the Public" and join the "sharps" in taking a double-digit home underdog.
Cleveland Browns +11 (Bet at betus +11 -110)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (15-12, 55.5%)
Washington Redskins +4.5 -110 (Bet at Sports Interaction +4.5 -110)
Green Bay Packers +3 (Bet at bodog +3 -115)
Cleveland Browns +11 (Bet at betus +11 -110)
