Marc Lawerence
NFL Sunday 4**** OVER of the WEEK
2015-11-01 13:05:00
Sunday, Nov. 1st
#265 / 1:00pm ET - 10:00am PT
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
4**** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
It’s gonna be an early-kickoff SHOOTOUT when the two MOST disappointing teams from the AFC ‘have it out’. Wow, Baltimore + San Diego are a combined 3-10 overall for the year. Two POOR scoring defenses that are ranked #26 and #27 in the league to boot (Bal: 26.9 ppg / SD: 28.3 ppg). Baltimore home games have seen an average of 57.5 ppg so far this year. Not only that, but the RAVENS have gone 8-1 O/U at home versus AFC West Division opponents since 2004, and a PERFECT 4-0 O/U in the last five seasons. Average combined points in these games: 60.3!
Baltimore returns home on reduced rest off a Monday loss to the Arizona Cardinals...
NFL non-division home favorites (BALTIMORE is -3.5) off a SU Monday road loss have gone a PERFECT 11-0 O/U when the OU line is 42 > points.
The Ravens are off a Monday game, while the Chargers have one next week.
11-1 O/U s’08: All home teams off a Monday game (BAL) vs an opponent who has a Monday game next week (SD).
A Pre-Bye ‘OVER’ pattern mentioned on page three of this week's Totals Tipsheet tends to result in a HIGH-scoring outcome. Since 2010, all NON-division teams before playing their Bye Week have gone OVER the Total 65% of the time. That's a h-u-g-e sample size in our database, too (94-46-1 O/U). But we can do BETTER than 65%....
9-0 O/U last two seasons: All non-division home favorites of < 10 points BEFORE their Bye Week (RAVENS).
The Ravens were a double-digit underdog in that Monday night loss to the Cardinals.
7-0-1 O/U L3Y: All Game 13 or less 1-win or better home teams off a game in which they were a DOUBLE-DIGIT road dog (RAVENS).
San Diego looked pretty pathetic in their high-scoring Sunday home loss to division rival Oakland. So far THIS season, NFL teams off a SU home favorite division loss that also went ‘Over the Total’ (CHARGERS) have gone 7-1 O/U.
So both of these teams are off 8-point losses in their last game.
8-1 O/U L2Y: All NFL home favorites of 6 < points when BOTH teams (RAVENS + CHARGERS) are off a SU loss of 8 or more points.
As mentioned earlier, Baltimore is 1-6 SU this year and San Diego is 2-5 SU.
27-11-1 S’04: All GAME 4-12 non-division road dogs with a .300 < winning pct (SAN DIEGO) versus an opponent with a .300 < winning pct (BALTIMORE). These game have gone 11-2 O/U when the visitor (SD) is off an ATS loss.
Let’s not forget this SD / BALT series has gone 4-1 O/U in the last 4 meetings.This is the ONLY game on the Week Eight schedule in which BOTH teams allowed > 400 yards on defense last week. Final score: 31 to 28...