Randall the Handle
Vikings (4-2) at Bears (2-4)
LINE: MINNESOTA by 1
Perception can be reality as it pertains to pointspreads. With Minnesota coming off a pair of wins while Chicago is all but forgotten during a week off, it’s easy to see how this one lined up. However, we’re not so sure the Bears shouldn’t have been favoured. OC Adam Gase seems to have tapped into QB Jay Cutler, as the much-maligned thrower has played some of his best football in years under his newest mentor. Having Alshon Jeffrey back on the field, where he caught eight balls for 147 yards and a touchdown before the break, certainly makes Cutler more effective. Minnesota QB Teddy Bridgewater remains a work in progress. Despite all the accolades he’s been receiving, the Vikings’ passing game ranks 29th in the league, while the offence is 30th overall. Minny also struggles on the road where it has won just three times in its past 11 away games. It’s been especially difficult here where the Bears have not lost to the Vikings since 2007. In addition, John Fox-coached teams perform well after a rest week with a 10-3 mark. Bears aren’t so bad, Vikings not that good.
TAKING: BEARS +1
Packers (6-0) at Broncos (6-0)
LINE: GREEN BAY by 3
Imagine an undefeated team, into November, taking home points. Kind of tells you what you need to know. While Denver’s defence has been very good, its offence can’t be counted on. The Broncos are saddled with an aging Peyton Manning. It is clear that the future Hall of Famer no longer has what it takes to be a dominant force in this league. The five-time league MVP isn’t even average any more. Manning has the lowest passer rating of any quarterback in the league at 72.5. The Denver offence has passed for only seven touchdowns while managing just two on the ground. Those nine combined TDs are also the lowest amount of all 32 teams. Even the Niners have 10 majors while a team like the Titans has 15. Yikes. This type of productivity — or lack thereof — is not going to work against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay will test Denver’s defence like never before. The line here isn’t insulting to the Broncos, it’s actually flattering based on what is likely to take place.
TAKING: PACKERS –3
Colts (3-4) at Panthers (6-0)
LINE: CAROLINA by 7
Nothing lasts forever — especially undefeated streaks in the NFL. While none of us know when Carolina’s run might end, it doesn’t have to in this game in order for us to cash a ticket. With a full touchdown granted, there is plenty of room for this circus act, otherwise known as the Indianapolis Colts, to come through with a cover. The Panthers are not built for giving away big points. They’ve been favoured by more than three points only once this year when they spotted the Saints 9½ points before failing to cover in a narrow 27-22 win. While Cam Newton definitely has game, the charismatic quarterback is prone to mistakes, having tossed five interceptions in his past two contests. This could also be a flat spot for the host after winning in Seattle, beating the Eagles in Sunday prime time and travelling to Green Bay next week. Yes, the Colts are troubled, but they bring enough offence to stay within striking range and, after facing Tom Brady and Drew Brees the past two weeks, Andrew Luck does not have to get caught up in a shootout to keep things close.
TAKING: COLTS +7
THE REST
Lions (1-6) vs. Chiefs (2-5) at London
LINE: KANSAS CITY by 5
Seeing that this one is on a neutral turf, the price may seem a tad high as the Chiefs aren’t exactly known for their offensive prowess. However, if the opposing team can barely go forward, asking Kansas City to win by a touchdown may not be asking for much. Detroit cannot run the ball, averaging 68 yards per game — good for dead last in the league. The offensive line is part of the problem and a bunch of offensive coaches were let go this week as the Lions try to fix what is broken. The Chiefs should have WR Jeremy Maclin back for this one and, with Charcandrick West showing that he can run, the Lions could be in for another miserable afternoon.
TAKING: CHIEFS —5
Buccaneers (2-3) at Falcons (6-1)
LINE: ATLANTA by 7
The mental makeup of the Bucs isn’t good at the best of times. After blowing a 24-0 lead last week to the Redskins, it has likely sunk to a new level. On the road for a second consecutive week, Tampa heads to Atlanta, where they were crushed last season by a ridiculous 56-14 score. This just doesn’t feel like a rebound spot. Not only are the Falcons a better team than they were a year ago, Tampa is suffering casualties, with the latest being WR Vincent Jackson. With TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins on the limp, rookie QB Jameis Winston cannot shoulder this load. Atlanta is not quite as good as its record indicates, but this one matches up well and the touchdown may seem cheap when all is said and done.
TAKING: FALCONS –7
Giants (4-3) at Saints (3-4)
LINE: NEW ORLEANS by 3
Maybe the magic has returned to the Superdome? After losing and failing to cover in six straight as hosts, the Saints have won and covered their past two here. New Orleans has also won three of four after an awful 0-3 start. QB Drew Brees is always dangerous and, with the Giants void of a pass rush, allowing Brees time to throw can be deadly. We’re also not sold on the visiting G-Men with their 1-2 road mark and none of their victories coming against a winning team. Beating the Niners and the Brandon Weeden-led Cowboys are not exactly marquee victories. The Giants’ run defence is struggling lately while Saints RB Mark Ingram has had a resurgence. New York brings little to get excited about here.
TAKING: SAINTS –3
49ers (2-5) at Rams (3-3)
LINE: ST.LOUIS by 8
There is little to entice anyone aboard this San Francisco train wreck. The 49ers can’t get out of their own way right now and how they’ll score against this strong Rams defence is anyone’s guess. Making matters more difficult for the visitor is St. Louis’ newfound swagger on offence, sparked by the incredible talents of RB Todd Gurley. The rookie has amassed more than 140 yards of offence in each of his past three games, allowing the Rams’ offence more versatility than it has had in a long while. San Fran is averaging a paltry 14.5 points per game. St. Louis has given up just 18 points here over its past two as hosts. It’s difficult to envision the 49ers compiling enough for a cover.
TAKING: RAMS –8
Bengals (6-0) at Steelers (4-3)
LINE: PITTSBURGH by 1
Definitely some reservation backing the Steelers in Ben Roethlisberger’s first game back from a four-game absence, but at a short price, we’re willing to take the leap of faith. Pittsburgh can kiss the division goodbye without a win here as Cincinnati would open up a 3½-game lead if victorious. A Pittsburgh victory keeps it at a reachable 1½-game margin. The Bengals have had two weeks to read all the headlines about how great they are. While we can’t detract from wins, Cincinnati has yet to play a team with a winning record. We’ve seen them go on runs before only to falter when it matters most. The Bengals figure to compete here, but until we see them show their chops when it counts, we’ll go the safer route with the proven home side.
TAKING: STEELERS –1
Cardinals (5-2) at Browns (2-5)
LINE: ARIZONA by 6
This would have made our best if not for the uncertainty of Josh McCown’s hurting shoulder. The game lines up well for the hometown Browns after playing two of the top defences in consecutive weeks with losses to the Broncos and Rams. While Arizona’s defence is good, it’s a couple of notches below those two. Cleveland took Denver to overtime on this field before losing a tough one. Now it will get Arizona, with more points offered than there were with Denver — and that’s with the Cardinals travelling here on a short week after Monday night’s win over the Ravens. Cleveland is also expecting one of its leaders and top defenders back as DB Joe Haden returns to the lineup. The Browns are a solid underdog with 11 covers in their past 15 tries under Mike Pettine’s tutelage.
TAKING: BROWNS +6
Chargers (2-5) at Ravens (1-6)
LINE: BALTIMORE by 3½
Giving away points with the current version of the Ravens would be both ghoulish and foolish. Baltimore’s only win on the season was a Thursday night affair against the Steelers, a game that the Ravens had no right winning. Granted, the Chargers have suffered a power outage of their own, but at least they have the ability to score points and facing Baltimore’s 25th-ranked defence (385.4 ypg) and 28th-ranked pass defence (283 ypg) should allow San Diego QB Philip Rivers, the league leader in passing yards, plenty of opportunity. The Bolts catch Baltimore on the tail end of some difficult travel with two trips to the west coast in three weeks and returning for this one on a short week. The Ravens also incurred some more injuries to an already damaged offensive line.
TAKING: CHARGERS +3½
Jets (4-2) at Raiders (3-3)
LINE: N.Y. JETS by 2½
For the first time in a long time, the Raiders are relevant. Although it’s still early, a win here would place Oakland as a wild-card team if the playoffs were to start now. The Jets are one of the teams that the Raiders are battling and the timing might be right to change the AFC landscape. Gang Green gave it their all in Foxborough last week, only to come up short once again against the hated Patriots. Now they must fly out west with a plane full of wounded guys. Included in that group is RB Chris Ivory and that could be the difference as the Raiders’ run defence is among the best in the league. When Ryan Fitzpatrick is forced to pass, it is usually beneficial to opposing defenders.
TAKING: RAIDERS +2½
Seahawks (3-4) at Cowboys (2-4)
LINE: SEATTLE by 6
Not to take anything away from the Seahawks, but they don’t deserve to be this much of a favourite in Dallas, Romo or no Romo. Think back just a week ago to when Seattle was a 6½-point pick at San Francisco. Results notwithstanding, do the Cowboys warrant the same billing as the dreadful 49ers? We think not. Granted, the ’Boys have struggled without their two star offensive players, but WR Dez Bryant is expected back and QB Matt Cassel will have a game under his belt in his newest uniform. Seattle had been 0-3 in road games before winning at San Fran. The Seahawks’ other two wins were against the Jay Culter-less Bears and the 1-6 Lions in a controversial one. With the Cowboys are fighting to stay afloat in the attainable NFC East, expect a big effort.
TAKING: COWBOYS +6
Titans (2-3) at Texans (2-4)