hope this info isnt out of line: Randy Scott, sportsbook manager of betED.com, highlights the wise action, weather and line moves on every NFL game on the board.
Houston 47
Minnesota -4.5
Sun 1:00 pm
- The total was hit by wise action at: Over 45
- The pointspread opened at: Minnesota -5
- Where the public is: Houston by a ratio of 6.2 to 3.9
- Where the money is: Split
- We have the Texans as moderate favorites to cover their underdog spread, but we only give them slim odds on winning outright on the road.
Jacksonville -8
Cincinnati 39.5
Sun 1:00 pm
- The total was hit by wise action at: Under 40
- The pointspread opened at: Jacksonville -7.5
- Where the public is: Jacksonville by a ratio of 7.0 to 2.3
- Where the money is: Jacksonville
- Our odds indicate Cincinnati has very little chance to win this game, but we give them decent odds to cover their underdog spread at home.
Tampa Bay -9
Kansas City 37
Sun 1:00 pm
- The pointspread opened at: Tampa Bay -8.5
- The total opened at: 37.5
- Where the public is: Tampa Bay by a ratio of 8.3 to 3.1
- Where the money is: Tampa Bay and under
- We have Kansas City as a strong favorite to cover its underdog spread at home, but only give KC slim odds to win the game outright.
Baltimore 36.5
Cleveland -1.5
Sun 1:00 pm
- The pointspread opened at: Cleveland -1.5
- The total opened at: 37
- Where the public is: Split
- Where the money is: Split
- We have this game as an even toss-up. We will let the action dictate where the line moves next.
NY Jets 41
Buffalo -5.5
Sun 1:00 pm
- The total was hit by wise action at: Over 42
- The pointspread opened at: Buffalo -5.5
- Where the public is: Buffalo at a ratio of 5.4 to 3.5
- Where the money is: Buffalo
- The Bills are moderate to strong favorites to win outright at home, but we have them as slight underdogs to cover the pointspread.
Arizona -3
St. Louis 48.5
Sun 1:00 pm
- The pointspread opened at: Arizona -3
- The total opened at: 48.5
- Where the public is: Arizona by a ratio of 7.9 to 2.4
- Where the money is: Arizona and under
- We have Arizona as moderate favorites to win outright and also make them moderate favorites to cover the spread on the road.
Detroit 43
Chicago -13
Sun 1:00 pm
- The pointspread was hit by wise action on: Chicago -12.5
- The total opened at: 44
- Where the public is: Chicago by a ratio of 5.3 to 4.1
- Where the money is: Detroit
- We have the Bears as huge favorites to win out right at home but we only give them slim odds to cover the double-digit spread.
Green Bay 41
Tennessee -5
Sun 1:00 pm
- The pointspread was hit by wise action on: Green Bay +5.5
- The total opened at: 42.5
- Where the public is: Split
- Where the money is: Green Bay
- Tennessee is the strong favorite to win outright at home and stay unbeaten, but we have them as underdogs to cover the spread.
Miami 50
Denver -3.5
Sun 4:05 pm
- The total was hit by wise action at: Over 49
- The pointspread opened at: Denver -3.5
- Where the public is: Denver by a ratio of 8.1 to 3.2
- Where the money is: Denver and over
- We have this game closer than the odds would indicate. We have Miami as strong favorites to cover its underdog spread and we also give the Fish a coin-flip chance of winning this game outright.
Atlanta -3
Oakland 41.5
Sun 4:15 pm
- 60 PERCENT CHANCE SHOWERS
- The pointspread opened at: Atlanta -3
- The total opened at: 41
- Where the public is: Atlanta by a ratio of 7.3 to 2.6
- Where the money is: Oakland
- We have this game as a toss-up and will let the action dictate where the line moves. Weather may have an impact on the total.
Dallas 41.5
NY Giants -9
Sun 4:15 pm
- The pointspread was hit by wise action on: NY Giants -7.5
- The total opened at: 41
- Where the public is: NY Giants by a ratio of 10.6 to 4.4
- Where the money is: Split
- We have the Giants as strong favorites to win outright at home, but only give them coin-flip odds to cover the spread.
Philadelphia -7
Seattle 43
Sun 4:15 pm
- 60 PERCENT CHANCE SHOWERS, GUSTY
- The total was hit by wise action at: Over 42
- The pointspread opened at: Philadelphia -7
- Where the public is: Philadelphia by a ratio of 15.6 to 1.6
- Where the money is: Philadelphia
- We have the Eagles strong favorites to win outright, and we also have them as moderate favorites to cover the spread on the road.
New England 43.5
Indianapolis -6
Sun 8:15 pm
- The total was hit by wise action at: Under 44
- The pointspread opened at: Indianapolis -5.5
- Where the public is: Split
- Where the money is: Indianapolis
- We have the Colts as moderate favorites to win outright and cover the spread at home.
Houston 47
Minnesota -4.5
Sun 1:00 pm
- The total was hit by wise action at: Over 45
- The pointspread opened at: Minnesota -5
- Where the public is: Houston by a ratio of 6.2 to 3.9
- Where the money is: Split
- We have the Texans as moderate favorites to cover their underdog spread, but we only give them slim odds on winning outright on the road.
Jacksonville -8
Cincinnati 39.5
Sun 1:00 pm
- The total was hit by wise action at: Under 40
- The pointspread opened at: Jacksonville -7.5
- Where the public is: Jacksonville by a ratio of 7.0 to 2.3
- Where the money is: Jacksonville
- Our odds indicate Cincinnati has very little chance to win this game, but we give them decent odds to cover their underdog spread at home.
Tampa Bay -9
Kansas City 37
Sun 1:00 pm
- The pointspread opened at: Tampa Bay -8.5
- The total opened at: 37.5
- Where the public is: Tampa Bay by a ratio of 8.3 to 3.1
- Where the money is: Tampa Bay and under
- We have Kansas City as a strong favorite to cover its underdog spread at home, but only give KC slim odds to win the game outright.
Baltimore 36.5
Cleveland -1.5
Sun 1:00 pm
- The pointspread opened at: Cleveland -1.5
- The total opened at: 37
- Where the public is: Split
- Where the money is: Split
- We have this game as an even toss-up. We will let the action dictate where the line moves next.
NY Jets 41
Buffalo -5.5
Sun 1:00 pm
- The total was hit by wise action at: Over 42
- The pointspread opened at: Buffalo -5.5
- Where the public is: Buffalo at a ratio of 5.4 to 3.5
- Where the money is: Buffalo
- The Bills are moderate to strong favorites to win outright at home, but we have them as slight underdogs to cover the pointspread.
Arizona -3
St. Louis 48.5
Sun 1:00 pm
- The pointspread opened at: Arizona -3
- The total opened at: 48.5
- Where the public is: Arizona by a ratio of 7.9 to 2.4
- Where the money is: Arizona and under
- We have Arizona as moderate favorites to win outright and also make them moderate favorites to cover the spread on the road.
Detroit 43
Chicago -13
Sun 1:00 pm
- The pointspread was hit by wise action on: Chicago -12.5
- The total opened at: 44
- Where the public is: Chicago by a ratio of 5.3 to 4.1
- Where the money is: Detroit
- We have the Bears as huge favorites to win out right at home but we only give them slim odds to cover the double-digit spread.
Green Bay 41
Tennessee -5
Sun 1:00 pm
- The pointspread was hit by wise action on: Green Bay +5.5
- The total opened at: 42.5
- Where the public is: Split
- Where the money is: Green Bay
- Tennessee is the strong favorite to win outright at home and stay unbeaten, but we have them as underdogs to cover the spread.
Miami 50
Denver -3.5
Sun 4:05 pm
- The total was hit by wise action at: Over 49
- The pointspread opened at: Denver -3.5
- Where the public is: Denver by a ratio of 8.1 to 3.2
- Where the money is: Denver and over
- We have this game closer than the odds would indicate. We have Miami as strong favorites to cover its underdog spread and we also give the Fish a coin-flip chance of winning this game outright.
Atlanta -3
Oakland 41.5
Sun 4:15 pm
- 60 PERCENT CHANCE SHOWERS
- The pointspread opened at: Atlanta -3
- The total opened at: 41
- Where the public is: Atlanta by a ratio of 7.3 to 2.6
- Where the money is: Oakland
- We have this game as a toss-up and will let the action dictate where the line moves. Weather may have an impact on the total.
Dallas 41.5
NY Giants -9
Sun 4:15 pm
- The pointspread was hit by wise action on: NY Giants -7.5
- The total opened at: 41
- Where the public is: NY Giants by a ratio of 10.6 to 4.4
- Where the money is: Split
- We have the Giants as strong favorites to win outright at home, but only give them coin-flip odds to cover the spread.
Philadelphia -7
Seattle 43
Sun 4:15 pm
- 60 PERCENT CHANCE SHOWERS, GUSTY
- The total was hit by wise action at: Over 42
- The pointspread opened at: Philadelphia -7
- Where the public is: Philadelphia by a ratio of 15.6 to 1.6
- Where the money is: Philadelphia
- We have the Eagles strong favorites to win outright, and we also have them as moderate favorites to cover the spread on the road.
New England 43.5
Indianapolis -6
Sun 8:15 pm
- The total was hit by wise action at: Under 44
- The pointspread opened at: Indianapolis -5.5
- Where the public is: Split
- Where the money is: Indianapolis
- We have the Colts as moderate favorites to win outright and cover the spread at home.
LOGICAL APPROACH
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: MINNESOTA - 4 ½ over Houston -
Houston is off of their best game of the season -- by far -- on both sides of the football and are unlikely to play to a similar level this week. The Vikings are off of a Bye that followed a loss in Chicago and should have used the time to design an offense more suited to the talents of QB Gus Frerotte who replaced Tarvaris Jackson as the starter several weeks into the season. Minnesota's running game and significantly better overall defense also provide solid edges. The Vikes are allowing just 2.9 yards per rush and nearly a yard per play less than the Texans. This is Houston's first road game since the end of September after 4 straight at home and their modest 3 game winning streak has included wins over the league's two remaining winless teams, Cincinnati and Detroit and both came at home. Minnesota, primed for a big effort, wins easily, 27-13.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
Tampa Bay - 8 over KANSAS CITY - Tampa drops down in class this week after playing well defensively at Dallas in their 13-9 loss. The Chiefs hung tough at New York and nearly defeated the Jets. Though their long term record at home is lofty, the Chiefs have lost 2 of 3 at Arrowhead this season and have had trouble sustaining momentum against more talented teams. This is a young team in the process of rebuilding while Tampa is a Playoff contender. Against weaker teams the Buccs are content to just run the ball and play conservatively to protect leads. Kansas City is the worst in the league against the run, allowing 197 yards per game (5.6 per carry). Their own ground game is in disarray with the unsettled status of RB Larry Johnson and their offense is led by a third string QB, Tyler Thigpen. Off of a loss and headed into their Bye week, Tampa will be focused and well motivated for a big effort against a very compliant foe. Tampa bay win 23-10.
DENVER- 3 over Miami - Denver's off their Bye and eager to atone for their embarrassing performance at New England. Miami's already tripled their win total from last season and stand 3-4. Denver has major concerns with their defense that is allowing 396 ypg. Miami's offense is being well managed by QB Chad Pennington and rarely turns the ball over, averaging less than one giveaway per game. The Broncos have the NFL's #2 offense (382 ypg). With two road games on deck this becomes a key game for Denver. Their rushing offense has been well above average while their weak run defense faces a Dolphins ground game gaining below the league average. Miami has covered 5 straight against Denver which gives us value in this short line. It's hard to offer many negatives against improved Miami which is showing they were not nearly as bad last season as their 1-15 record. But it's a bad scheduling spot for Miami, off of two home games and with three more at home up next, making this their only road trip in a 6 game stretch. And they'll face a rested, angry and highly motivated foe. Denver's offensive balance proves decisive. Denver wins 26-17.
Dallas + 8 over N Y GIANTS - This long term rivalry takes on even more importance as the G-men threaten to make it a runaway in the NFC East while Dallas struggles behind backup QB Brad Johnson with Tony Romo still sidelined. This line is a 15 point turnaround from their last meeting when the Giants knocked the Cowboys out of the Playoffs last season in Dallas as a 7 point underdog. Overall both teams are above average both on offense and defense with not much separating the teams statistically. Aside from blowout wins over weaklings Seattle and St Louis, the Giants have not been as dominant as may be perceived. They struggled in wins over Cincinnati, San Francisco and Pittsburgh. Both teams have done well both running the ball and stopping the run. Most of their yards per play stats are extremely close. Dallas remains a team loaded with talent across the board, even considering their injury woes. Dallas will be motivated to avenge that Playoff loss. While they likely don't pull the upset, this game will be close. NY Giants win 23-20.
Best of the NFL Totals
Houston/Minnesota UNDER 47
Tampa Bay/Kansas City UNDER 37 ½
Arizona/St Louis OVER 49
Miami/Denver UNDER 49
Atlanta/Oakland UNDER 41
Pittsburgh/Washington UNDER 37
Money Line Recommendations
Pro:
MINNESOTA
DENVER
OAKLAND
New England
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: MINNESOTA - 4 ½ over Houston -
Houston is off of their best game of the season -- by far -- on both sides of the football and are unlikely to play to a similar level this week. The Vikings are off of a Bye that followed a loss in Chicago and should have used the time to design an offense more suited to the talents of QB Gus Frerotte who replaced Tarvaris Jackson as the starter several weeks into the season. Minnesota's running game and significantly better overall defense also provide solid edges. The Vikes are allowing just 2.9 yards per rush and nearly a yard per play less than the Texans. This is Houston's first road game since the end of September after 4 straight at home and their modest 3 game winning streak has included wins over the league's two remaining winless teams, Cincinnati and Detroit and both came at home. Minnesota, primed for a big effort, wins easily, 27-13.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
Tampa Bay - 8 over KANSAS CITY - Tampa drops down in class this week after playing well defensively at Dallas in their 13-9 loss. The Chiefs hung tough at New York and nearly defeated the Jets. Though their long term record at home is lofty, the Chiefs have lost 2 of 3 at Arrowhead this season and have had trouble sustaining momentum against more talented teams. This is a young team in the process of rebuilding while Tampa is a Playoff contender. Against weaker teams the Buccs are content to just run the ball and play conservatively to protect leads. Kansas City is the worst in the league against the run, allowing 197 yards per game (5.6 per carry). Their own ground game is in disarray with the unsettled status of RB Larry Johnson and their offense is led by a third string QB, Tyler Thigpen. Off of a loss and headed into their Bye week, Tampa will be focused and well motivated for a big effort against a very compliant foe. Tampa bay win 23-10.
DENVER- 3 over Miami - Denver's off their Bye and eager to atone for their embarrassing performance at New England. Miami's already tripled their win total from last season and stand 3-4. Denver has major concerns with their defense that is allowing 396 ypg. Miami's offense is being well managed by QB Chad Pennington and rarely turns the ball over, averaging less than one giveaway per game. The Broncos have the NFL's #2 offense (382 ypg). With two road games on deck this becomes a key game for Denver. Their rushing offense has been well above average while their weak run defense faces a Dolphins ground game gaining below the league average. Miami has covered 5 straight against Denver which gives us value in this short line. It's hard to offer many negatives against improved Miami which is showing they were not nearly as bad last season as their 1-15 record. But it's a bad scheduling spot for Miami, off of two home games and with three more at home up next, making this their only road trip in a 6 game stretch. And they'll face a rested, angry and highly motivated foe. Denver's offensive balance proves decisive. Denver wins 26-17.
Dallas + 8 over N Y GIANTS - This long term rivalry takes on even more importance as the G-men threaten to make it a runaway in the NFC East while Dallas struggles behind backup QB Brad Johnson with Tony Romo still sidelined. This line is a 15 point turnaround from their last meeting when the Giants knocked the Cowboys out of the Playoffs last season in Dallas as a 7 point underdog. Overall both teams are above average both on offense and defense with not much separating the teams statistically. Aside from blowout wins over weaklings Seattle and St Louis, the Giants have not been as dominant as may be perceived. They struggled in wins over Cincinnati, San Francisco and Pittsburgh. Both teams have done well both running the ball and stopping the run. Most of their yards per play stats are extremely close. Dallas remains a team loaded with talent across the board, even considering their injury woes. Dallas will be motivated to avenge that Playoff loss. While they likely don't pull the upset, this game will be close. NY Giants win 23-20.
Best of the NFL Totals
Houston/Minnesota UNDER 47
Tampa Bay/Kansas City UNDER 37 ½
Arizona/St Louis OVER 49
Miami/Denver UNDER 49
Atlanta/Oakland UNDER 41
Pittsburgh/Washington UNDER 37
Money Line Recommendations
Pro:
MINNESOTA
DENVER
OAKLAND
New England
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
PLAY AGAINST any sub .700 NFL road favorite off a win if they are scheduled to face the defending Super Bowl champs in their next game.
Play Against:
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
ATS W-L Record
Since 1980: 15-1 (93%)
TOTALS
5* Raiders UNDER
4* Vikings OVER
3* Titans OVER
5* BEST BET
Baltimore over CLEVELAND by 11
Some teams benefi t more than others from scheduling gifts. The
Ravens are one such club. When they visited Miami two weeks ago,
they were recipients of the Dolphins being cast into the role of a
favorite for the fi rst time this season. They also caught Miami off
three consecutive pointspread wins, two of which were SU underdog
victories. The result: Baltimore (+3) 27, Miami 13. As Yogi Berra would
say, “It’s déjà vu all over again” my friend with the Browns in the
same identical role as outlined above. Better yet, Baltimore brings the
better offense and the better defense into this contest. Yes, it may be
revenge for the Brownies from a 28-10 loss in Crabtown earlier this
year but the fact of the matter is the Black Birds have made a living
of late in this series, going 6-0 ATS the last six meetings. By the book,
Baltimore improves to 8-1 ATS In November against an opponent off
a SU underdog win while Cleveland dips to 1-7 ATS in Eleventh Month
games when hosting a division foe. Again
4 BEST BET
WASHINGTON over Pittsburgh by 14
A myriad of solid handicapping factors are at work in this Monday
night fi ght and we’ll gladly step in and soak all of them up. The
Redskins join fellow division rival Eagles and Giants as the only three
teams in the league to have won the total yardage in all but one game
this season (they won the stats in each of their last seven games). They
are also a Monday night home team off a road game taking on a foe
of a home loss of 7 or more points. Teams in this role are 24-2-1 SU and
21-5-1 ATS since 1980! Tie that into the Steelers’ 3-10 SU and 4-8-1 ATS
record on the Monday night road against an opponent off a win and
you can understand our glee. With new head coach Jim Zorn having
shown a unique tendency to ‘play to the level of the opposition’ (4-0
SU and ATS versus .500 or greater opponents; 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS versus
less than .500 teams), we welcome you to the glee club.
3* BEST BET
Dallas over NY GIANTS by 3
As banged up and depleted as the Cowboys are they still bring a lot to
the table in this contest. And with the number bordering on doubles
we’ll bite. For openers, Dallas has been a dog of more than 6 points
three times in this series dating back to 1991. They won the money all
three times. In addition, they are 10-2 ATS as road dogs when taking on
a division opponent off a SU and ATS loss. More importantly, though,
they own a Top 10 ranked defense that has held two of its last three
foes to season low yards (Tampa Bay and Arizona). The G-Men return
home off a tough, physical battle at Pittsburgh. And that’s a vital key
in this contest as teams are just 7-14 SU and 5-16 ATS in games after
facing Pittsburgh since Mike Tomlin took over the reins last season,
including 2-9 ATS when favored. Dallas devours the Big Apple.
MINNESOTA over Houston by 6
The Texans fi nally hit the asphalt after having been camped out at home
throughout the month of October. Thanks to a scheduling change due to
Hurricane Ike, Houston becomes only the 6th team in NFL annals to take
to the regular season road after having played four straight home games
(FYI: the other fi ve went 2-3 SU and ATS, including 0-3 as dogs of 2 or more
points). Meanwhile, the Vikings hope that their success in November when
playing off a loss in games when they own a losing record continues its
winning charm (8-0 ATS) and is enough to overcome Minny’s 8-game losing
skein against AFC opponents. The Texans’ putrid 3-28 SU mark in their
expansion franchise history in road games off a home game, including 1-11
SU and ATS of late, does not bode well for Houston. Minny breaks its AFC
cherry today.
Jacksonville over CINCINNATI by 3
No one ever aspires to be a pig. Like s**t, it just happens. Once you’ve been
enshrined into the oinker society, there’s nothing you can do about it. It’s
a label that doesn’t wash off. To gain admittance into the NFL ‘Ugly Pig’
fraternity all a team needs to do is to lose its fi rst four games of the season.
It’s just that simple. Try as they may, these teams are labeled as losers the
rest of the season. Dress them up as home dogs in games off back-to-back
SU and ATS losses and they respond with aplomb, having gone 33-9 ATS in
this role since 1980! That’s the role for the Cincinnati Pigs, err, Bengals today.
Considering Jacksonville is still looking for its fi rst ATS cover as a favorite
this season (1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS), look for the underdog (8-0 ATS) to remain
perfect in Jags’ games this season in the Pig Pen here today.
Tampa Bay over KANSAS CITY by 10
If you’re a professional hog-caller forget about calling on the Chiefs. Despite
their sorry status they were not born into the ‘Ugly Pig’ family this season.
A shocking win over Denver in Game Four saved them, momentarily, from
swine-status this year. Instead, they are simply a fl at-out bad team. That’s
confi rmed by the fact they have allowed season high – or 2nd high – yardage
in EVERY game they’ve played this season, including season highs the last
four. Speaking of statistics, the Bucs 5th ranked defense is the reason
Tampa is +63 net YPG this season while the Chiefs’ 31st ranked defense is
largely responsible for KC’s –137 net YPG this season. That’s a 200-yard net
differential. No surprise to see the Bucs improve on their glittery 12-1-1 ATS
mark in games off a SU and ATS loss when taking on a .600 or less nondivision
foe. Lay the points, bucko.
BUFFALO Over NY Jets by 6
Key AFC East duel pits 5-2 division leading Buffalo against the 4-3 Jets
with plenty on the line for both teams. Statistically both teams mirror one
another. Biggest concern is a Jet defense that’s coughed up season high – or
2nd high – yardage in three of its last four games. Key edge in the contest
is the fact that Bills’ boss Dick Jauron is 10-2 ATS at home in games off a SU
and ATS division loss in his NFL head coaching career, including 8-1 versus an
opponent off a win. With that, Buffi e goes to 9-0 ATS as a home favorite off
a SU and ATS loss in November. ‘No charge’ for this winning piece of advice.
We’ll Bill you later.
Arizona over ST. LOUIS by 7
It’s amazing what three pointspread wins in a row will do to the complexion
of a ‘pig’ (read: bad team). After opening the season 0-4 and gaining ‘Ugly Pig’
status, the Rams fi red head coach Scott Linehan and promoted Jim Haslett.
Since then, they’ve gone 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. As a result, today marks the fi rst
time St. Louis will not be getting at least a touchdown from the oddsmaker.
Never a good home dog (1-6 ATS last seven), the Rams are a paltry 2-15 ATS
taking points as a division host when they own a losing record. The Cardinals
9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS mark as road favorites from Game Eight out versus an
opponent off a loss of 7 or more points cements it.
CHICAGO over Detroit by 14
Like the Chiefs, the Lions own the distinction of having allowed season high
– or 2nd high – yardage in EVERY game they’ve played this season. Thus,
the race is on for the ‘worst team in the league’ honors. The 425 yards they
surrendered to the Bears in an earlier meeting this season was – surprise
– the Bears’ best effort in 2008. The problem here is Chicago’s 0-7 ATS record
as double-digit chalk against sub .400 opponents off back-to-back losses and
the Lions’ 14-2 spread mark off a double-digit SU and ATS non-division loss.
We’ll let the stat story fend us off the trends and keep our nose out of this
foul-smelling affair.
TENNESSEE over Green Bay by 6
Forgive the Titans if they don’t show up for this game today after a 7-0 SU
and ATS start to the season, including Monday night’s big win over former
division kingpin Indianapolis. With the division all but locked up (before the
mid-point of the season!), all that’s left is a PERFECT SEASON. After all, they
are only 2nd team in NFL history to open a campaign with seven wins and
covers in its fi rst seven games. The other? Last year’s New England Patriots,
who went on to win and cover eight in a row (52-7 against Washington)
before the pointspread wheels fell off. Meanwhile, the well-rested Packers
look to stay atop the NFC North Division with Chicago knowing they are 7-3
SU and 8-2 ATS as dogs off a SU non-division underdog win. Are the Titans
this year’s ’18-0’ hope? Nope.
DENVER over Miami by 3
Lots of ammunition for both sides in this battle of two teams that appear
headed in opposite directions. After starting the season with three straight
wins, the Broncos have dropped three of their last four games. The best
news of late has been the Bye Week as it allows Denver an opportunity to
regroup. And regroup is what Mike Shanahan does best as evidenced by
his sterling 15-5 SU and ATS career mark in games with rest, including 12-1
SU and ATS against non-division opponents. Miami has numbers of its own,
like 9-0 ATS as dogs against AFC West Division opposition. The bottom line
for Bronco backers is Denver’s 0-7 ATS mark in its last seven regular season
games in the series puts this one on hold. With that, we’ll make like John
Elway and Dan Marino and pass.
Atlanta over OAKLAND by 6
Who would have believed the Falcons would be sent out as a road favorite
with a rookie quarterback this season? That’s what happens when your team
has won as many games (4) at this stage of the season as they did all of last
year. And, unlike Cleveland above, Atlanta has worn the cloth of favorite this
season (won 38-14 as 6-point favorites against the Chiefs in Week Three). The
home dog Raiders, who have allowed season high – or 2nd high – yardage
in their last three games, will try and improve on a nasty 3-15 ATS home dog
record when taking 8 or less points at McAfee Coliseum. Back the team with
the better running game and the better defense. Back the Falcons.
Philadelphia over SEATTLE by 3
The Eagles scratched and clawed their way to a 5* win for us in the Playbook
last week when Andy Reid kept his brilliant record in games off a Bye Week
intact. Today, however, they travel to the left coast to meet the suddenly
awakened Seahawks in an unattractive AWESOME ANGLE ‘play against’
situation (see page 2) with division rival and defending Super Bowl champion
New York Giants up next. While no team in the league has played better ‘In
The Stats’ than the Eagles (6-1 ITS) this year, we simply can’t ignore the fact
that Andy is a not-so-dandy 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in 2nd games after the Bye
Week when taking on a non-division foe. You know what to do.
INDIANAPOLIS over New England by 10
Pity Peyton. His team has lost as many games before the midway mark of this
2008 season than it did in total in any of the previous three seasons. What
to do? If you’re a believer, you don’t bail. If you’re a cynic you point out the
fact that they could realistically be 1-6 rather than 3-4 were it not for a few
late-game gifts from the Vikings and Texans. But as Bill Parcells likes to say,
“You are what your record says.” Since we’re believers, we point out the
fact that head coach Tony Dungy is 32-18-2 ATS in his NFL career at home
with revenge, including 7-0 SU and ATS when playing off a loss of 7 or more
points. With defending Super Bowl losers a miserable 25-50-2 ATS on the
non-division road against an opponent seeking revenge, look for things to
get back to the norm at Peyton’s place today
TOTALS
5* Raiders UNDER
4* Vikings OVER
3* Titans OVER
AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
PLAY AGAINST any sub .700 NFL road favorite off a win if they are scheduled to face the defending Super Bowl champs in their next game.
Play Against:
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
ATS W-L Record
Since 1980: 15-1 (93%)
TOTALS
5* Raiders UNDER
4* Vikings OVER
3* Titans OVER
5* BEST BET
Baltimore over CLEVELAND by 11
Some teams benefi t more than others from scheduling gifts. The
Ravens are one such club. When they visited Miami two weeks ago,
they were recipients of the Dolphins being cast into the role of a
favorite for the fi rst time this season. They also caught Miami off
three consecutive pointspread wins, two of which were SU underdog
victories. The result: Baltimore (+3) 27, Miami 13. As Yogi Berra would
say, “It’s déjà vu all over again” my friend with the Browns in the
same identical role as outlined above. Better yet, Baltimore brings the
better offense and the better defense into this contest. Yes, it may be
revenge for the Brownies from a 28-10 loss in Crabtown earlier this
year but the fact of the matter is the Black Birds have made a living
of late in this series, going 6-0 ATS the last six meetings. By the book,
Baltimore improves to 8-1 ATS In November against an opponent off
a SU underdog win while Cleveland dips to 1-7 ATS in Eleventh Month
games when hosting a division foe. Again
4 BEST BET
WASHINGTON over Pittsburgh by 14
A myriad of solid handicapping factors are at work in this Monday
night fi ght and we’ll gladly step in and soak all of them up. The
Redskins join fellow division rival Eagles and Giants as the only three
teams in the league to have won the total yardage in all but one game
this season (they won the stats in each of their last seven games). They
are also a Monday night home team off a road game taking on a foe
of a home loss of 7 or more points. Teams in this role are 24-2-1 SU and
21-5-1 ATS since 1980! Tie that into the Steelers’ 3-10 SU and 4-8-1 ATS
record on the Monday night road against an opponent off a win and
you can understand our glee. With new head coach Jim Zorn having
shown a unique tendency to ‘play to the level of the opposition’ (4-0
SU and ATS versus .500 or greater opponents; 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS versus
less than .500 teams), we welcome you to the glee club.
3* BEST BET
Dallas over NY GIANTS by 3
As banged up and depleted as the Cowboys are they still bring a lot to
the table in this contest. And with the number bordering on doubles
we’ll bite. For openers, Dallas has been a dog of more than 6 points
three times in this series dating back to 1991. They won the money all
three times. In addition, they are 10-2 ATS as road dogs when taking on
a division opponent off a SU and ATS loss. More importantly, though,
they own a Top 10 ranked defense that has held two of its last three
foes to season low yards (Tampa Bay and Arizona). The G-Men return
home off a tough, physical battle at Pittsburgh. And that’s a vital key
in this contest as teams are just 7-14 SU and 5-16 ATS in games after
facing Pittsburgh since Mike Tomlin took over the reins last season,
including 2-9 ATS when favored. Dallas devours the Big Apple.
MINNESOTA over Houston by 6
The Texans fi nally hit the asphalt after having been camped out at home
throughout the month of October. Thanks to a scheduling change due to
Hurricane Ike, Houston becomes only the 6th team in NFL annals to take
to the regular season road after having played four straight home games
(FYI: the other fi ve went 2-3 SU and ATS, including 0-3 as dogs of 2 or more
points). Meanwhile, the Vikings hope that their success in November when
playing off a loss in games when they own a losing record continues its
winning charm (8-0 ATS) and is enough to overcome Minny’s 8-game losing
skein against AFC opponents. The Texans’ putrid 3-28 SU mark in their
expansion franchise history in road games off a home game, including 1-11
SU and ATS of late, does not bode well for Houston. Minny breaks its AFC
cherry today.
Jacksonville over CINCINNATI by 3
No one ever aspires to be a pig. Like s**t, it just happens. Once you’ve been
enshrined into the oinker society, there’s nothing you can do about it. It’s
a label that doesn’t wash off. To gain admittance into the NFL ‘Ugly Pig’
fraternity all a team needs to do is to lose its fi rst four games of the season.
It’s just that simple. Try as they may, these teams are labeled as losers the
rest of the season. Dress them up as home dogs in games off back-to-back
SU and ATS losses and they respond with aplomb, having gone 33-9 ATS in
this role since 1980! That’s the role for the Cincinnati Pigs, err, Bengals today.
Considering Jacksonville is still looking for its fi rst ATS cover as a favorite
this season (1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS), look for the underdog (8-0 ATS) to remain
perfect in Jags’ games this season in the Pig Pen here today.
Tampa Bay over KANSAS CITY by 10
If you’re a professional hog-caller forget about calling on the Chiefs. Despite
their sorry status they were not born into the ‘Ugly Pig’ family this season.
A shocking win over Denver in Game Four saved them, momentarily, from
swine-status this year. Instead, they are simply a fl at-out bad team. That’s
confi rmed by the fact they have allowed season high – or 2nd high – yardage
in EVERY game they’ve played this season, including season highs the last
four. Speaking of statistics, the Bucs 5th ranked defense is the reason
Tampa is +63 net YPG this season while the Chiefs’ 31st ranked defense is
largely responsible for KC’s –137 net YPG this season. That’s a 200-yard net
differential. No surprise to see the Bucs improve on their glittery 12-1-1 ATS
mark in games off a SU and ATS loss when taking on a .600 or less nondivision
foe. Lay the points, bucko.
BUFFALO Over NY Jets by 6
Key AFC East duel pits 5-2 division leading Buffalo against the 4-3 Jets
with plenty on the line for both teams. Statistically both teams mirror one
another. Biggest concern is a Jet defense that’s coughed up season high – or
2nd high – yardage in three of its last four games. Key edge in the contest
is the fact that Bills’ boss Dick Jauron is 10-2 ATS at home in games off a SU
and ATS division loss in his NFL head coaching career, including 8-1 versus an
opponent off a win. With that, Buffi e goes to 9-0 ATS as a home favorite off
a SU and ATS loss in November. ‘No charge’ for this winning piece of advice.
We’ll Bill you later.
Arizona over ST. LOUIS by 7
It’s amazing what three pointspread wins in a row will do to the complexion
of a ‘pig’ (read: bad team). After opening the season 0-4 and gaining ‘Ugly Pig’
status, the Rams fi red head coach Scott Linehan and promoted Jim Haslett.
Since then, they’ve gone 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. As a result, today marks the fi rst
time St. Louis will not be getting at least a touchdown from the oddsmaker.
Never a good home dog (1-6 ATS last seven), the Rams are a paltry 2-15 ATS
taking points as a division host when they own a losing record. The Cardinals
9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS mark as road favorites from Game Eight out versus an
opponent off a loss of 7 or more points cements it.
CHICAGO over Detroit by 14
Like the Chiefs, the Lions own the distinction of having allowed season high
– or 2nd high – yardage in EVERY game they’ve played this season. Thus,
the race is on for the ‘worst team in the league’ honors. The 425 yards they
surrendered to the Bears in an earlier meeting this season was – surprise
– the Bears’ best effort in 2008. The problem here is Chicago’s 0-7 ATS record
as double-digit chalk against sub .400 opponents off back-to-back losses and
the Lions’ 14-2 spread mark off a double-digit SU and ATS non-division loss.
We’ll let the stat story fend us off the trends and keep our nose out of this
foul-smelling affair.
TENNESSEE over Green Bay by 6
Forgive the Titans if they don’t show up for this game today after a 7-0 SU
and ATS start to the season, including Monday night’s big win over former
division kingpin Indianapolis. With the division all but locked up (before the
mid-point of the season!), all that’s left is a PERFECT SEASON. After all, they
are only 2nd team in NFL history to open a campaign with seven wins and
covers in its fi rst seven games. The other? Last year’s New England Patriots,
who went on to win and cover eight in a row (52-7 against Washington)
before the pointspread wheels fell off. Meanwhile, the well-rested Packers
look to stay atop the NFC North Division with Chicago knowing they are 7-3
SU and 8-2 ATS as dogs off a SU non-division underdog win. Are the Titans
this year’s ’18-0’ hope? Nope.
DENVER over Miami by 3
Lots of ammunition for both sides in this battle of two teams that appear
headed in opposite directions. After starting the season with three straight
wins, the Broncos have dropped three of their last four games. The best
news of late has been the Bye Week as it allows Denver an opportunity to
regroup. And regroup is what Mike Shanahan does best as evidenced by
his sterling 15-5 SU and ATS career mark in games with rest, including 12-1
SU and ATS against non-division opponents. Miami has numbers of its own,
like 9-0 ATS as dogs against AFC West Division opposition. The bottom line
for Bronco backers is Denver’s 0-7 ATS mark in its last seven regular season
games in the series puts this one on hold. With that, we’ll make like John
Elway and Dan Marino and pass.
Atlanta over OAKLAND by 6
Who would have believed the Falcons would be sent out as a road favorite
with a rookie quarterback this season? That’s what happens when your team
has won as many games (4) at this stage of the season as they did all of last
year. And, unlike Cleveland above, Atlanta has worn the cloth of favorite this
season (won 38-14 as 6-point favorites against the Chiefs in Week Three). The
home dog Raiders, who have allowed season high – or 2nd high – yardage
in their last three games, will try and improve on a nasty 3-15 ATS home dog
record when taking 8 or less points at McAfee Coliseum. Back the team with
the better running game and the better defense. Back the Falcons.
Philadelphia over SEATTLE by 3
The Eagles scratched and clawed their way to a 5* win for us in the Playbook
last week when Andy Reid kept his brilliant record in games off a Bye Week
intact. Today, however, they travel to the left coast to meet the suddenly
awakened Seahawks in an unattractive AWESOME ANGLE ‘play against’
situation (see page 2) with division rival and defending Super Bowl champion
New York Giants up next. While no team in the league has played better ‘In
The Stats’ than the Eagles (6-1 ITS) this year, we simply can’t ignore the fact
that Andy is a not-so-dandy 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in 2nd games after the Bye
Week when taking on a non-division foe. You know what to do.
INDIANAPOLIS over New England by 10
Pity Peyton. His team has lost as many games before the midway mark of this
2008 season than it did in total in any of the previous three seasons. What
to do? If you’re a believer, you don’t bail. If you’re a cynic you point out the
fact that they could realistically be 1-6 rather than 3-4 were it not for a few
late-game gifts from the Vikings and Texans. But as Bill Parcells likes to say,
“You are what your record says.” Since we’re believers, we point out the
fact that head coach Tony Dungy is 32-18-2 ATS in his NFL career at home
with revenge, including 7-0 SU and ATS when playing off a loss of 7 or more
points. With defending Super Bowl losers a miserable 25-50-2 ATS on the
non-division road against an opponent seeking revenge, look for things to
get back to the norm at Peyton’s place today
TOTALS
5* Raiders UNDER
4* Vikings OVER
3* Titans OVER
Paid and confirmed by yours truly
Kiki Sports
2 units Buffalo -5
1 unit Arizona/ St.Louis OVER 48.5
1 unit Miami +3.5
1 unit NY Giants -9
1 unit New England +6
Can someone get Youngstown Connection this weekend? 4-0 last week and 17-5 overall in NFL for the season. 39-17 in all sports.
sportsbetadvisors is the location, I appreciate it a lot if someone could.
Kiki Sports
2 units Buffalo -5
1 unit Arizona/ St.Louis OVER 48.5
1 unit Miami +3.5
1 unit NY Giants -9
1 unit New England +6
Can someone get Youngstown Connection this weekend? 4-0 last week and 17-5 overall in NFL for the season. 39-17 in all sports.
sportsbetadvisors is the location, I appreciate it a lot if someone could.
THE GOLD SHEET
KEY RELEASES
CLEVELAND by 13 over Baltimore
N.Y. GIANTS by 20 over Dallas
OVER THE TOTAL in the Detroit-Chicago game
CLEVELAND 23 - Baltimore 10—In its last home game, the aroused
Cleveland defense made Eli Manning and the Super Bowl champs look like
chumps, the Browns winning 35-14. In fact, the improved Cleveland defensive
unit has allowed only 12, 14, 14 & 17 points its last four games! The Browns’
major question of 2008 remains whether QB Derek Anderson (56.5%, 29 TDs,
19 ints. LY; 49%, 6 & 7 TY) can regain his big-play form. He was sacked 5 times
and intercepted thrice by the Ravens in Week Two. But, now, it’s payback time
for Cleveland vs. Joe Flacco. Browns four straight covers TY; 17-6 vs. spread
last 23 overall; 1-11-1 “under” last 13.
(08-BALT. 28-Cle. 10...B.21-11 B.44/151 C.15/73 B.13/19/2/122 C.14/37/3/96 B.0 C.0)
(07-CLE. 27-Balt. 13...B.16-12 B.20/111 C.30/99 B.34/53/1/307 C.10/18/1/204 C.0 B.1)
(07-Cle. 33-BAL. 30 (OT)...B.23-22 B.25/128 C.34/117 C.24/38/1/263 B.22/41/2/240 C.1 B.2)
(08-BALT. -2' 28-10; 07-CLEVE. +4 27-13, Cleve. -2' 33-30 (OT)...SR: Baltimore 12-7)
NY GIANTS 33 - Dallas 13—Hard times for Brad Johnson, a Super
Bowl-winning QB six years ago, but now a soft-tossing (19 completions for only
122 yards last week vs. T.B.), 40-year-old fill-in for Tony Romo (expected to be
sidelined through Dallas’ upcoming bye week). Worse yet for the Cowboys, the
G-men have the rush defense (fifth prior to last week) to repeatedly force
Johnson to the air and the pass rush (26 sacks) to then attack. Giants’ own
mashing ground assault (No. 1 prior to the Steeler game) figures to keep
DeMarcus Ware (9 sacks) under control, allowing Eli and his deep WR corps to
exploit the depleted Dallas secondary. G-men on 19-6 cover streak.
(07-DAL. 45-Giants 35...N.22-21 D.30/142 N.22/124 D.15/24/1/336 N.29/44/1/314 D.1 N.0)
(07-Dal. 31-GIANTS 20...N.23-19 N.27/106 D.24/82 D.20/28/1/241 N.23/34/2/194 D.0 N.0)
(07-Giants 21-DAL. 17...D.23-16 D.33/154 N.23/90 D.18/36/1/182 N.12/18/0/140 N.0 D.0)
(07-DAL. -6 45-35, Dal. -2 31-20, Giants +7' 21-17 (Playoffs)...SR: Dallas 54-36-2
OVER THE TOTAL CHICAGO 37 - Detroit 16—Can Detroit ever win
a game, or is Cincinnati more likely to emerge as the more serious challenger
to the all-time futility mark of the 0-14 of the T.B. Bucs of 1976? While
pondering that one, the immediate focus is whether the Lions can put up a
better fight vs. Chicago than they did in their humbling 34-7 loss at Ford Field
four weeks ago. We’re not convinced, especially with Jon Kitna out and stilllearning
Dan Orlovsky (three starts) at QB, and with HC Rod Marinelli’s status
on a week-to-week basis. Would much rather trust rested Bears, looking to
take charge of the NFC North and with Kyle Orton (10 TDs, 4 ints.) resembling
a good NFL QB. Chicago 17-4 “over” at home.
(08-Chi. 34-DET. 7...C.21-12 C.34/97 D.13/54 C.24/34/0/328 D.21/39/1/131 C.1 D.1)
(07-DET. 37-Chi. 27...C.22-19 D.25/95 C.22/69 C.34/52/3/234 D.20/24/0/215 D.2 C.0)
(07-Det. 16-CHI. 7...D.22-16 D.28/119 C.20/63 D.24/35/0/246 C.22/40/4/192 D.1 C.0)
(08-Chicago -3' 34-7; 07-DETROIT +2' 37-27, Detroit +5 16-7...SR: Chicago 88-64-5)
MINNESOTA 27 - Houston 26—Houston’s far-from-perfect defense is
vulnerable to Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota ground game. However, the
Vikes still have holes in their pass defense, and it’s always an adventure to see
what Minny might do next when punting and returning punts. The Texans have
a super-fast returner in Jacoby Jones (two PR TDs TY), and rookie RB Steve
Slaton is a tick faster on artificial turf. WR Andre Johnson (56 recs.) is having
a monster year. Houston “over” 6 of 7 TY and 10 of last 12 overall.
(04-Minnesota -3' 34-28 (OT)...SR: Minnesota 1-0)
Jacksonville 28 - CINCINNATI 17—Bengals have yet to cover in four starts
by Ryan Fitzpatrick (2 TDs, 5 ints., 17 sacks). And the loss of good-looking
rookie OLB Keith Rivers could prove doubly important vs. a strong-running
team such as Jacksonville. The Jags (0-5 as a favorite) are no cinch, however,
and former Chicago Bear Cedric Benson is providing at least the semblance of
a ground attack for Cincy. Maybe the best option is “over,” as Jacksonville is
11-3-1 “over” on the road (but only 1-2 TY).
(05-JACKSONVILLE -3 23-20...SR: Jacksonville 11-5)
Tampa Bay 24 - KANSAS CITY 10—Maybe Tyler Thigpen is getting the
hang of this NFL thing, as the former Coastal Carolina Chanticleer QB enjoyed
his best pro day (280 YP & 2 TDP) in 28-24 loss at the Jets. Then again, that
unexpected K.C. uprising should only serve to alert an angry Tampa Bay bunch
that’s unlikely to overlook the Chiefs after the Bucs’ own bitter 13-9 loss at Big
D. Have more faith in Monte Kiffin’s coverage schemes and blitz packages to
disrupt the inexperienced Thigpen, and in Jon Gruden’s offense to repeatedly
exploit the low-ranking K.C. defense, especially now that WR Joey Galloway is
back in action.
(04-TAMPA BAY +3 34-31...SR: Kansas City 5-4)
BUFFALO 22 - NY Jets 13—With Buffalo’s power running game still not
generating consistent yardage (Marshawn Lynch only 3.5 ypc), we wonder if
last week’s 25-16 loss at Miami might be the first sign the Bills are about ready
to fall back to earth. But we’re reluctant to trust the Jets as long as Brett Favre
(ints. in 6 straight games for first time since ‘05; 3 picks last week; now 11 TY)
continues to make costly mistakes as he adjusts to N.Y.’s offense. Buffalo
counterpart Trent Edwards (only 3 ints.) proving more efficient. Note: Bills 13-
6 vs. line at Orchard Park under Dick Jauron.
(07-BUF. 17-NY Jets 14...N.20-19 B.28/86 N.19/60 N.32/39/2/286 B.22/28/1/218 B.1 N.0)
(07-Buf. 13-NY JETS 3...B.19-14 B.35/108 N.23/100 B.17/26/1/239 N.18/32/2/154 B.0 N.1)
(07-BUFFALO +3' 17-14, Buffalo +3 13-3...SR: Buffalo 53-42)
ST. LOUIS 29 - Arizona 24—Can St. Louis (2-5) possibly be on the verge
of getting back into the NFC West race? And do the modern-day Ram fans even
know or care of Bill Bidwill, who moved the Cards from the Gateway City to the
desert 20 years ago? We’ll say “yes” to the first question, and “probably no” to
the Bidwill portion. What matters most is that St. Louis is 2-1 SU and 3-0 vs.
the spread since Jim Haslett replaced Scott Linehan. And even without
Steven Jackson (thigh strain; check status), Rams have a new gamebreaker
in rookie WR Donnie Avery, who is supplanting Torry Holt as Marc Bulger’s
favorite target.
(07-Ariz. 34-ST. LOU. 31...24-24 S.23/123 A.31/102 A.21/41/2/281 S.24/43/3/252 A.0 S.0)
(07-ARIZ. 48-St. Lou. 19...A.25-13 A.31/123 S.24/75 A.23/39/2/300 S.14/30/3/159 A.0 S.0)
(07-Arizona -3' 34-31, ARIZONA -6 48-19...SR: St. Louis 31-26-2)
TENNESSEE 21 - Green Bay 20—Extra rest for G.B., off its bye week, while
Tennessee on short practice after important Monday nighter with Indy. Both
teams sport ball-hawking DBs, with DBs Courtland Finnegan & Michael Griffin
of the Titans and Nick Collins & Charles Woodson of the Packers each with 4
ints. prior to that Indy game. Tenn. runs it better with Chris Johnson & LenDale
White. But Packers throw it better with the surprising Aaron Rodgers (65.6%,
12 TDs, only 4 ints.), who’s taking fine advantage of his quality receivers and
Mike McCarthy’s clever passing schemes.
(2008 Preseason: Tennessee -6' beat Green Bay 23-21 at Green Bay)
(04-Tennessee +3 48-27...SR: Tennessee 5-4)
DENVER 30 - Miami 21—This one figures to be run vs. pass, with the
Dolphins’ strong and often deceptive ground game challenging the Broncos’
low-ranked defense, now missing LB Boss Bailey & cover corner Champ Bailey
(expected to be replaced by fourth-round draft pick Jack Williams of Kent
State). However, Denver’s bye week will allow Jay Cutler’s sore finger to heal
and for Mike Shanahan (5 straight covers after byes; 6-1-1 last 8 vs. the spread
following a DD loss) to devise some new looks for WRs Marshall & Royal and
TEs Scheffler & Graham. Broncs 13-4 “over” at home.
(05-MIAMI +5 34-10...SR: Miami 10-4-1)
Atlanta 23 - OAKLAND 16—Prefer the solid coaching and impressive
development of Atlanta, even though both of the promising QBs in this game
deserve credit for avoiding the very frequent interceptions that often plague
young passers (Matt Ryan has 5 picks; JaMarcus Russell, only 3). However, for
the Falcons, WR Roddy White (43 recs., 5 TDC) has continued his ascension
toward the upper echelon. Cross-country travelers not doing well in the NFL TY, but
Mike Smith has his young Atlanta players believing they’re solid contenders in the
NFC South, while many Raiders uncertain what exactly is going on in Oakland.
(04-ATLANTA -7' 35-10...SR: Oakland 7-4)
Philadelphia 23 - SEATTLE 20—Hesitant to lay the lumber with superior
visitor at one of the NFL’s toughest sites, especially with mobile backup QB
Seneca Wallace (2 TDP last week in S.F.) at least stabilizing the Seattle
offense. Eagles always a major threat when Brian Westbrook (167 YR, 6 recs.
last week) healthy. But Seahawks, who have won four straight NFC West titles,
have a solid corps of players eager to a make a run at a fifth now that they’re
back on the winning track. This one unlikely to come easy for the favorite.
(07-Sea. 28-PHIL. 24...P.17-16 P.29/144 S.29/135 P.19/42/4/219 S.19/34/1/176 S.1 P.0)
(07-Seattle +3 28-24...SR: Philadelphia 6-5)
*INDIANAPOLIS 27 - New England 24—Tom Brady’s knee injury has kept
this game from being the premium matchup anticipated prior to the season.
And injuries to other players (Rodney Harrison, Sammy Morris, Joseph Addai,Bob Sanders; check status of the last three) have further dimmed the luster.
Making things interesting, however, has been the gradual improvement of Matt
Cassel and the injury-disrupted season being endured by Peyton Manning (8
TDs, 7 ints. prior to Monday night game in Tennessee) and the Indy offense.
Pats are 11-6-1 L5+Ys in rare underdog role. TV—NBC
(07-N. Eng. 24-INDY 20...I.23-21 I.31/119 N.28/105 N.21/32/2/237 I.16/27/1/213 N.0 I.1)
(07-New England -5 24-20...SR: New England 44-27)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3
*Pittsburgh 20 - WASHINGTON 16—Maturing Washington QB Jason
Campbell (8 TDs, no ints.) faces perhaps his toughest challenge since the
Redskins’ 16-7 opening-day at the Giants, as the often-confusing Steeler 3-4
features two of the NFL’s top sack artists in James Harrison’s (8½) & LaMarr
Woodley (7½). Only once (last week, in fact) has the Steeler defense allowed
more than 260 total yards TY. RB Clinton Portis (944 YR) is leading the league
in rushing, but he’s been taking a beating. Pittsburgh is hoping Willie Parker
(out since Game Three with knee injury) and WR Santonio Holmes (deactivated
due to pot arrest) will both be back. Only Steeler losses have come vs. the
Eagles & Giants, and Redskins lack that type of pass rush. CABLE TV—ESPN
(04-PITTSBURGH -10 16-7...SR: Washington 42-30-3)
KEY RELEASES
CLEVELAND by 13 over Baltimore
N.Y. GIANTS by 20 over Dallas
OVER THE TOTAL in the Detroit-Chicago game
CLEVELAND 23 - Baltimore 10—In its last home game, the aroused
Cleveland defense made Eli Manning and the Super Bowl champs look like
chumps, the Browns winning 35-14. In fact, the improved Cleveland defensive
unit has allowed only 12, 14, 14 & 17 points its last four games! The Browns’
major question of 2008 remains whether QB Derek Anderson (56.5%, 29 TDs,
19 ints. LY; 49%, 6 & 7 TY) can regain his big-play form. He was sacked 5 times
and intercepted thrice by the Ravens in Week Two. But, now, it’s payback time
for Cleveland vs. Joe Flacco. Browns four straight covers TY; 17-6 vs. spread
last 23 overall; 1-11-1 “under” last 13.
(08-BALT. 28-Cle. 10...B.21-11 B.44/151 C.15/73 B.13/19/2/122 C.14/37/3/96 B.0 C.0)
(07-CLE. 27-Balt. 13...B.16-12 B.20/111 C.30/99 B.34/53/1/307 C.10/18/1/204 C.0 B.1)
(07-Cle. 33-BAL. 30 (OT)...B.23-22 B.25/128 C.34/117 C.24/38/1/263 B.22/41/2/240 C.1 B.2)
(08-BALT. -2' 28-10; 07-CLEVE. +4 27-13, Cleve. -2' 33-30 (OT)...SR: Baltimore 12-7)
NY GIANTS 33 - Dallas 13—Hard times for Brad Johnson, a Super
Bowl-winning QB six years ago, but now a soft-tossing (19 completions for only
122 yards last week vs. T.B.), 40-year-old fill-in for Tony Romo (expected to be
sidelined through Dallas’ upcoming bye week). Worse yet for the Cowboys, the
G-men have the rush defense (fifth prior to last week) to repeatedly force
Johnson to the air and the pass rush (26 sacks) to then attack. Giants’ own
mashing ground assault (No. 1 prior to the Steeler game) figures to keep
DeMarcus Ware (9 sacks) under control, allowing Eli and his deep WR corps to
exploit the depleted Dallas secondary. G-men on 19-6 cover streak.
(07-DAL. 45-Giants 35...N.22-21 D.30/142 N.22/124 D.15/24/1/336 N.29/44/1/314 D.1 N.0)
(07-Dal. 31-GIANTS 20...N.23-19 N.27/106 D.24/82 D.20/28/1/241 N.23/34/2/194 D.0 N.0)
(07-Giants 21-DAL. 17...D.23-16 D.33/154 N.23/90 D.18/36/1/182 N.12/18/0/140 N.0 D.0)
(07-DAL. -6 45-35, Dal. -2 31-20, Giants +7' 21-17 (Playoffs)...SR: Dallas 54-36-2
OVER THE TOTAL CHICAGO 37 - Detroit 16—Can Detroit ever win
a game, or is Cincinnati more likely to emerge as the more serious challenger
to the all-time futility mark of the 0-14 of the T.B. Bucs of 1976? While
pondering that one, the immediate focus is whether the Lions can put up a
better fight vs. Chicago than they did in their humbling 34-7 loss at Ford Field
four weeks ago. We’re not convinced, especially with Jon Kitna out and stilllearning
Dan Orlovsky (three starts) at QB, and with HC Rod Marinelli’s status
on a week-to-week basis. Would much rather trust rested Bears, looking to
take charge of the NFC North and with Kyle Orton (10 TDs, 4 ints.) resembling
a good NFL QB. Chicago 17-4 “over” at home.
(08-Chi. 34-DET. 7...C.21-12 C.34/97 D.13/54 C.24/34/0/328 D.21/39/1/131 C.1 D.1)
(07-DET. 37-Chi. 27...C.22-19 D.25/95 C.22/69 C.34/52/3/234 D.20/24/0/215 D.2 C.0)
(07-Det. 16-CHI. 7...D.22-16 D.28/119 C.20/63 D.24/35/0/246 C.22/40/4/192 D.1 C.0)
(08-Chicago -3' 34-7; 07-DETROIT +2' 37-27, Detroit +5 16-7...SR: Chicago 88-64-5)
MINNESOTA 27 - Houston 26—Houston’s far-from-perfect defense is
vulnerable to Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota ground game. However, the
Vikes still have holes in their pass defense, and it’s always an adventure to see
what Minny might do next when punting and returning punts. The Texans have
a super-fast returner in Jacoby Jones (two PR TDs TY), and rookie RB Steve
Slaton is a tick faster on artificial turf. WR Andre Johnson (56 recs.) is having
a monster year. Houston “over” 6 of 7 TY and 10 of last 12 overall.
(04-Minnesota -3' 34-28 (OT)...SR: Minnesota 1-0)
Jacksonville 28 - CINCINNATI 17—Bengals have yet to cover in four starts
by Ryan Fitzpatrick (2 TDs, 5 ints., 17 sacks). And the loss of good-looking
rookie OLB Keith Rivers could prove doubly important vs. a strong-running
team such as Jacksonville. The Jags (0-5 as a favorite) are no cinch, however,
and former Chicago Bear Cedric Benson is providing at least the semblance of
a ground attack for Cincy. Maybe the best option is “over,” as Jacksonville is
11-3-1 “over” on the road (but only 1-2 TY).
(05-JACKSONVILLE -3 23-20...SR: Jacksonville 11-5)
Tampa Bay 24 - KANSAS CITY 10—Maybe Tyler Thigpen is getting the
hang of this NFL thing, as the former Coastal Carolina Chanticleer QB enjoyed
his best pro day (280 YP & 2 TDP) in 28-24 loss at the Jets. Then again, that
unexpected K.C. uprising should only serve to alert an angry Tampa Bay bunch
that’s unlikely to overlook the Chiefs after the Bucs’ own bitter 13-9 loss at Big
D. Have more faith in Monte Kiffin’s coverage schemes and blitz packages to
disrupt the inexperienced Thigpen, and in Jon Gruden’s offense to repeatedly
exploit the low-ranking K.C. defense, especially now that WR Joey Galloway is
back in action.
(04-TAMPA BAY +3 34-31...SR: Kansas City 5-4)
BUFFALO 22 - NY Jets 13—With Buffalo’s power running game still not
generating consistent yardage (Marshawn Lynch only 3.5 ypc), we wonder if
last week’s 25-16 loss at Miami might be the first sign the Bills are about ready
to fall back to earth. But we’re reluctant to trust the Jets as long as Brett Favre
(ints. in 6 straight games for first time since ‘05; 3 picks last week; now 11 TY)
continues to make costly mistakes as he adjusts to N.Y.’s offense. Buffalo
counterpart Trent Edwards (only 3 ints.) proving more efficient. Note: Bills 13-
6 vs. line at Orchard Park under Dick Jauron.
(07-BUF. 17-NY Jets 14...N.20-19 B.28/86 N.19/60 N.32/39/2/286 B.22/28/1/218 B.1 N.0)
(07-Buf. 13-NY JETS 3...B.19-14 B.35/108 N.23/100 B.17/26/1/239 N.18/32/2/154 B.0 N.1)
(07-BUFFALO +3' 17-14, Buffalo +3 13-3...SR: Buffalo 53-42)
ST. LOUIS 29 - Arizona 24—Can St. Louis (2-5) possibly be on the verge
of getting back into the NFC West race? And do the modern-day Ram fans even
know or care of Bill Bidwill, who moved the Cards from the Gateway City to the
desert 20 years ago? We’ll say “yes” to the first question, and “probably no” to
the Bidwill portion. What matters most is that St. Louis is 2-1 SU and 3-0 vs.
the spread since Jim Haslett replaced Scott Linehan. And even without
Steven Jackson (thigh strain; check status), Rams have a new gamebreaker
in rookie WR Donnie Avery, who is supplanting Torry Holt as Marc Bulger’s
favorite target.
(07-Ariz. 34-ST. LOU. 31...24-24 S.23/123 A.31/102 A.21/41/2/281 S.24/43/3/252 A.0 S.0)
(07-ARIZ. 48-St. Lou. 19...A.25-13 A.31/123 S.24/75 A.23/39/2/300 S.14/30/3/159 A.0 S.0)
(07-Arizona -3' 34-31, ARIZONA -6 48-19...SR: St. Louis 31-26-2)
TENNESSEE 21 - Green Bay 20—Extra rest for G.B., off its bye week, while
Tennessee on short practice after important Monday nighter with Indy. Both
teams sport ball-hawking DBs, with DBs Courtland Finnegan & Michael Griffin
of the Titans and Nick Collins & Charles Woodson of the Packers each with 4
ints. prior to that Indy game. Tenn. runs it better with Chris Johnson & LenDale
White. But Packers throw it better with the surprising Aaron Rodgers (65.6%,
12 TDs, only 4 ints.), who’s taking fine advantage of his quality receivers and
Mike McCarthy’s clever passing schemes.
(2008 Preseason: Tennessee -6' beat Green Bay 23-21 at Green Bay)
(04-Tennessee +3 48-27...SR: Tennessee 5-4)
DENVER 30 - Miami 21—This one figures to be run vs. pass, with the
Dolphins’ strong and often deceptive ground game challenging the Broncos’
low-ranked defense, now missing LB Boss Bailey & cover corner Champ Bailey
(expected to be replaced by fourth-round draft pick Jack Williams of Kent
State). However, Denver’s bye week will allow Jay Cutler’s sore finger to heal
and for Mike Shanahan (5 straight covers after byes; 6-1-1 last 8 vs. the spread
following a DD loss) to devise some new looks for WRs Marshall & Royal and
TEs Scheffler & Graham. Broncs 13-4 “over” at home.
(05-MIAMI +5 34-10...SR: Miami 10-4-1)
Atlanta 23 - OAKLAND 16—Prefer the solid coaching and impressive
development of Atlanta, even though both of the promising QBs in this game
deserve credit for avoiding the very frequent interceptions that often plague
young passers (Matt Ryan has 5 picks; JaMarcus Russell, only 3). However, for
the Falcons, WR Roddy White (43 recs., 5 TDC) has continued his ascension
toward the upper echelon. Cross-country travelers not doing well in the NFL TY, but
Mike Smith has his young Atlanta players believing they’re solid contenders in the
NFC South, while many Raiders uncertain what exactly is going on in Oakland.
(04-ATLANTA -7' 35-10...SR: Oakland 7-4)
Philadelphia 23 - SEATTLE 20—Hesitant to lay the lumber with superior
visitor at one of the NFL’s toughest sites, especially with mobile backup QB
Seneca Wallace (2 TDP last week in S.F.) at least stabilizing the Seattle
offense. Eagles always a major threat when Brian Westbrook (167 YR, 6 recs.
last week) healthy. But Seahawks, who have won four straight NFC West titles,
have a solid corps of players eager to a make a run at a fifth now that they’re
back on the winning track. This one unlikely to come easy for the favorite.
(07-Sea. 28-PHIL. 24...P.17-16 P.29/144 S.29/135 P.19/42/4/219 S.19/34/1/176 S.1 P.0)
(07-Seattle +3 28-24...SR: Philadelphia 6-5)
*INDIANAPOLIS 27 - New England 24—Tom Brady’s knee injury has kept
this game from being the premium matchup anticipated prior to the season.
And injuries to other players (Rodney Harrison, Sammy Morris, Joseph Addai,Bob Sanders; check status of the last three) have further dimmed the luster.
Making things interesting, however, has been the gradual improvement of Matt
Cassel and the injury-disrupted season being endured by Peyton Manning (8
TDs, 7 ints. prior to Monday night game in Tennessee) and the Indy offense.
Pats are 11-6-1 L5+Ys in rare underdog role. TV—NBC
(07-N. Eng. 24-INDY 20...I.23-21 I.31/119 N.28/105 N.21/32/2/237 I.16/27/1/213 N.0 I.1)
(07-New England -5 24-20...SR: New England 44-27)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3
*Pittsburgh 20 - WASHINGTON 16—Maturing Washington QB Jason
Campbell (8 TDs, no ints.) faces perhaps his toughest challenge since the
Redskins’ 16-7 opening-day at the Giants, as the often-confusing Steeler 3-4
features two of the NFL’s top sack artists in James Harrison’s (8½) & LaMarr
Woodley (7½). Only once (last week, in fact) has the Steeler defense allowed
more than 260 total yards TY. RB Clinton Portis (944 YR) is leading the league
in rushing, but he’s been taking a beating. Pittsburgh is hoping Willie Parker
(out since Game Three with knee injury) and WR Santonio Holmes (deactivated
due to pot arrest) will both be back. Only Steeler losses have come vs. the
Eagles & Giants, and Redskins lack that type of pass rush. CABLE TV—ESPN
(04-PITTSBURGH -10 16-7...SR: Washington 42-30-3)
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA
HOUSTON
Upon close inspection, the Minnesota Vikings haven’t been
offering a lot of value lately. Not only is Minnesota struggling vs. the
number this season (2-5), but the Vikings have been
underachieving since the middle of the 2006 campaign, recording a
poor 11-23-1 spread mark their last 35 on the board, including just 7
covers in their last 19 as a favorite. So, no problem recommending
ascending Houston, especially with the Texans on a 3-game
straight-up win streak.
HOUSTON at MINNESOTA...Texans “over” 6-1 TY, now “over” 10
of last 12 since late ‘07, and “over” 19-8-1 last 28 overall. Vikes 11-
23-1 last 35 on board. Tech edge-Texans and "over”, based on
team and “totals” trends.
JACKSONVILLE at CINCINNATI...Bengals no covers first 3 at
home TY, now 9-20-1 vs. number last 30 on board as host. Jags 9-
4 vs. line away since LY, also “over” 15-4 last 19 since early ‘07.
Tech edge-Jags and slight to “over,” based on team and
“totals” trends.
TAMPA BAY at KANSAS CITY...Herm just 2-8-1 vs. number as
host since ‘07. Chiefs also “over” 8-4 last 12 as host. Gruden “over”
7-4 last 11 as visitor. Tech edge-Bucs and slight to “over”,
based on team and “totals” trends.
BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND...Romeo has covered 5 of last 6 TY
and has noteworthy 17-6 overall spread mark since last season.
Tech edge-slight to Browns, based on team trends.
NY JETS at BUFFALO...Bills have won and covered last 3 meetings.
Jauron 12-4 vs. spread last 16 at Orchard Park as well. Bills
“over” 10-5 last 15 as host. Tech edge-Bills and slight to “over”,
based on team and “totals” trends.
ARIZONA at ST. LOUIS...Last 3 in series “over”, and Rams 11-3
“over” their last 14 as host. Cards “over” 5-2 TY, “over” 22-8 last 30
overall. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Rams, based on team
and “totals” trends.
DETROIT at CHICAGO...Detroit “over” 9-4 last 13 as visitor, while
Bears “over” 17-4 last 21 at Soldier Field! Tech edge-“Over” and
Bears, based on “totals” and team trends.
GREEN BAY at TENNESSEE...Pack “over” 11-3 last 14 away. Titans
have won and covered their first 6 TY! Tech edge-“Over” and
slight to Titans, based on “totals” and team trends.
MIAMI at DENVER...Dolphins have covered last 5 meetings, and
Denver hasn’t covered a reg.-season game at home vs. Miami since
1968, a 21-14 win in old AFL days (Broncos did win and cover at home
in playoffs in ‘98, however, by 38-3 count). Denver no covers last
4 TY, but note Shan is 6-1-1 vs. line in last 8 games following a Bronco
DD loss. Broncos “under” last 2 at home but “over” 13-4 last 17 at
Invesco Field at mile High. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to
Broncos, based on “totals” and Bronco humiliation bounceback
trends.
ATLANTA at OAKLAND...Raiders 12-30-1 vs. number last 43 as
host. Tech edge-Falcons, based on Raiders’ extended home
woes.
DALLAS at NY GIANTS...Giants 19-6 their last 25 on board, Dallas
3-10 last 13 on board since late ‘07. Cowboys “over” 8-4 last 12
away, G-Men “over” 8-4 last 12 as host. Tech edge-Giants and
slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
PHILADELPHIA at SEATTLE...Eagles 11-3 vs. line last 14 away.
Philly also “over” first 3 on road Y and “over” 7-1 last 8 as visitor. Tech
edge-Eagles and “over”, based on team and “totals” trends.
NEW ENGLAND at INDIANAPOLIS...Colts have now covered the
last 4 series meetings. Belichick 15-6 vs. line last 21 as visitor, 2-1
TY with Matt Cassel at QB. Pats also “over” 10-5 last 15 away. Dungy
just 6-8 last 14 as chalk. Tech edge-slight to “over”, based on
“totals” trends.
PITTSBURGH at WASHINGTON (Monday, November 3)...Steel
“over” 8-3 last 1a since late ‘07. Steel has covered its last 2 away
TY but still only 7-12-1 vs. line away since ‘06. Tech edge-slight
to Skins and “over”, based on team and “totals” trends
NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-GREEN BAY over Tennessee, NEW
ENGLAND over Indianapolis.
FAMILIARITY-CLEVELAND# over Baltimore, ST. LOUIS over Arizona.
NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-DENVER over Miami.
NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-No plays this week.
SCORE 40 LETDOWN-DETROIT over Chicago, HOUSTON over
Minnesota.
HOUSTON
Upon close inspection, the Minnesota Vikings haven’t been
offering a lot of value lately. Not only is Minnesota struggling vs. the
number this season (2-5), but the Vikings have been
underachieving since the middle of the 2006 campaign, recording a
poor 11-23-1 spread mark their last 35 on the board, including just 7
covers in their last 19 as a favorite. So, no problem recommending
ascending Houston, especially with the Texans on a 3-game
straight-up win streak.
HOUSTON at MINNESOTA...Texans “over” 6-1 TY, now “over” 10
of last 12 since late ‘07, and “over” 19-8-1 last 28 overall. Vikes 11-
23-1 last 35 on board. Tech edge-Texans and "over”, based on
team and “totals” trends.
JACKSONVILLE at CINCINNATI...Bengals no covers first 3 at
home TY, now 9-20-1 vs. number last 30 on board as host. Jags 9-
4 vs. line away since LY, also “over” 15-4 last 19 since early ‘07.
Tech edge-Jags and slight to “over,” based on team and
“totals” trends.
TAMPA BAY at KANSAS CITY...Herm just 2-8-1 vs. number as
host since ‘07. Chiefs also “over” 8-4 last 12 as host. Gruden “over”
7-4 last 11 as visitor. Tech edge-Bucs and slight to “over”,
based on team and “totals” trends.
BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND...Romeo has covered 5 of last 6 TY
and has noteworthy 17-6 overall spread mark since last season.
Tech edge-slight to Browns, based on team trends.
NY JETS at BUFFALO...Bills have won and covered last 3 meetings.
Jauron 12-4 vs. spread last 16 at Orchard Park as well. Bills
“over” 10-5 last 15 as host. Tech edge-Bills and slight to “over”,
based on team and “totals” trends.
ARIZONA at ST. LOUIS...Last 3 in series “over”, and Rams 11-3
“over” their last 14 as host. Cards “over” 5-2 TY, “over” 22-8 last 30
overall. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Rams, based on team
and “totals” trends.
DETROIT at CHICAGO...Detroit “over” 9-4 last 13 as visitor, while
Bears “over” 17-4 last 21 at Soldier Field! Tech edge-“Over” and
Bears, based on “totals” and team trends.
GREEN BAY at TENNESSEE...Pack “over” 11-3 last 14 away. Titans
have won and covered their first 6 TY! Tech edge-“Over” and
slight to Titans, based on “totals” and team trends.
MIAMI at DENVER...Dolphins have covered last 5 meetings, and
Denver hasn’t covered a reg.-season game at home vs. Miami since
1968, a 21-14 win in old AFL days (Broncos did win and cover at home
in playoffs in ‘98, however, by 38-3 count). Denver no covers last
4 TY, but note Shan is 6-1-1 vs. line in last 8 games following a Bronco
DD loss. Broncos “under” last 2 at home but “over” 13-4 last 17 at
Invesco Field at mile High. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to
Broncos, based on “totals” and Bronco humiliation bounceback
trends.
ATLANTA at OAKLAND...Raiders 12-30-1 vs. number last 43 as
host. Tech edge-Falcons, based on Raiders’ extended home
woes.
DALLAS at NY GIANTS...Giants 19-6 their last 25 on board, Dallas
3-10 last 13 on board since late ‘07. Cowboys “over” 8-4 last 12
away, G-Men “over” 8-4 last 12 as host. Tech edge-Giants and
slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
PHILADELPHIA at SEATTLE...Eagles 11-3 vs. line last 14 away.
Philly also “over” first 3 on road Y and “over” 7-1 last 8 as visitor. Tech
edge-Eagles and “over”, based on team and “totals” trends.
NEW ENGLAND at INDIANAPOLIS...Colts have now covered the
last 4 series meetings. Belichick 15-6 vs. line last 21 as visitor, 2-1
TY with Matt Cassel at QB. Pats also “over” 10-5 last 15 away. Dungy
just 6-8 last 14 as chalk. Tech edge-slight to “over”, based on
“totals” trends.
PITTSBURGH at WASHINGTON (Monday, November 3)...Steel
“over” 8-3 last 1a since late ‘07. Steel has covered its last 2 away
TY but still only 7-12-1 vs. line away since ‘06. Tech edge-slight
to Skins and “over”, based on team and “totals” trends
NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-GREEN BAY over Tennessee, NEW
ENGLAND over Indianapolis.
FAMILIARITY-CLEVELAND# over Baltimore, ST. LOUIS over Arizona.
NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-DENVER over Miami.
NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-No plays this week.
SCORE 40 LETDOWN-DETROIT over Chicago, HOUSTON over
Minnesota.
MATT RIVERS
100,000* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH Plus Bonus Lock
Your winners here are on:
1. 100,000♦ Browns
2. 50,000♦ Bills
1. Neither team is great but I like the way the Brownies have been improving and to get them at home and pretty much just win the game is certainly fine with me.
No doubt Ray Lewis and Ed Reed form one of the stoutest defenses in all of football but I just do not trust Joe Flacco and that offense on the road. The Ravens have started the season nicely and probably do believe they have a shot at the playoffs but the road is never an easy place to play and without probably Chris McAllister and possibly also Willis McGhahee and Yamon Figurs I'm really not going to be surprised if the Ravens not only lose here but get blitzed. Let's not forget how this Cleveland team has a pretty good upside on offense unlike Baltimore who really still does not as they just still pretty much plod up and down the field.
Romeo Crennel's Browns have really come on of late, feeding off of that win against the Giants. These guys just won in Jacksonville against a similar physical team in the Jaguars and now back home will certainly play with some passion in what is a huge huge divisional game that could determine the fate of their season as 3-5 with another loss in the division would probably mean the end of any real postseason hopes. Plus Jamal Lewis is a former Raven and should be all sorts of jacked up here.
The Ravens have won two straight but Miami and Oakland are not exactly two elite teams and on the road here have to pretty much win this game in order to cover.
Derek Anderson has been a ton better of late and I definitely expect Braylon Edwards to man up against the physical Baltimore defense like he did against the Giants in that Monday night win.
A near pick at home? Sure!
2. Brett Favre has been pretty wretched over the past few weeks and the Jets overall have really been lacking a whole lot of late. New York was atrocious out in Oakland in that overtime loss a few weeks ago and had to come back last week to beat a dreadful Kansas City team in the Meadowlands.
Sure Buffalo blew it last week in Miami but the Bills at Rich Stadium in the cold always seem to take care of business. Buffalo is in first place right now and a win today would be monstrous as the Patriots probably are going to drop a game on the road in Indianapolis later in the day. With Favre throwing a ton of picks of late against bad teams I just don't see him rebounding up North against a very capable Buffalo team.
I can totally see a 31-14 type of an ass whopping right here as the Jets poor play is about to catch up with them once agaion on the highway and in a major major way!
100,000* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH Plus Bonus Lock
Your winners here are on:
1. 100,000♦ Browns
2. 50,000♦ Bills
1. Neither team is great but I like the way the Brownies have been improving and to get them at home and pretty much just win the game is certainly fine with me.
No doubt Ray Lewis and Ed Reed form one of the stoutest defenses in all of football but I just do not trust Joe Flacco and that offense on the road. The Ravens have started the season nicely and probably do believe they have a shot at the playoffs but the road is never an easy place to play and without probably Chris McAllister and possibly also Willis McGhahee and Yamon Figurs I'm really not going to be surprised if the Ravens not only lose here but get blitzed. Let's not forget how this Cleveland team has a pretty good upside on offense unlike Baltimore who really still does not as they just still pretty much plod up and down the field.
Romeo Crennel's Browns have really come on of late, feeding off of that win against the Giants. These guys just won in Jacksonville against a similar physical team in the Jaguars and now back home will certainly play with some passion in what is a huge huge divisional game that could determine the fate of their season as 3-5 with another loss in the division would probably mean the end of any real postseason hopes. Plus Jamal Lewis is a former Raven and should be all sorts of jacked up here.
The Ravens have won two straight but Miami and Oakland are not exactly two elite teams and on the road here have to pretty much win this game in order to cover.
Derek Anderson has been a ton better of late and I definitely expect Braylon Edwards to man up against the physical Baltimore defense like he did against the Giants in that Monday night win.
A near pick at home? Sure!
2. Brett Favre has been pretty wretched over the past few weeks and the Jets overall have really been lacking a whole lot of late. New York was atrocious out in Oakland in that overtime loss a few weeks ago and had to come back last week to beat a dreadful Kansas City team in the Meadowlands.
Sure Buffalo blew it last week in Miami but the Bills at Rich Stadium in the cold always seem to take care of business. Buffalo is in first place right now and a win today would be monstrous as the Patriots probably are going to drop a game on the road in Indianapolis later in the day. With Favre throwing a ton of picks of late against bad teams I just don't see him rebounding up North against a very capable Buffalo team.
I can totally see a 31-14 type of an ass whopping right here as the Jets poor play is about to catch up with them once agaion on the highway and in a major major way!
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#eaeded><TD align=left colSpan=2>Handicapper: Steve Merril</TD></TR><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#eaeded><TD align=left width="85%">Atlanta Falcons vs. Oakland Raiders (NFL) - 3:15 PM EST</TD><TD>Premium Pick</TD></TR><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#eaeded><TD align=left>Pick: Point Spread: 3/-123 Oakland Raiders Play Title: </TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#eaeded><TD colSpan=8>[SIZE=-2]Click Here to View Pick Analysis[/SIZE]
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ope:
