SPORTS ADVISORS
Houston (3-4, 2-5 ATS) at Minnesota (3-4, 2-5 ATS)
The Texans gun for their fourth straight victory when they travel to the Metrodome for a non-conference clash with the Vikings.
Houston pounded Cincinnati 35-6 last week as a nine-point home chalk, getting their third consecutive SU win while halting a three-game ATS slide. QB Matt Schaub (24 of 28, 280 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) was nearly perfect as the Texans had no turnovers, forced three and finished with a more than 10-minute edge in time of possession. Houston also outgained Cincy 384-253.
Minnesota, which had its bye last week, lost to Chicago in a 48-41 shootout as a three-point road underdog two weeks ago, giving the SU winner a 19-2-2 ATS mark in the Vikes’ last 23 games dating to the 2007 season opener (6-1 ATS this season). Minnesota outgained the Bears 439-327 and had a 10-minute time-of-possession edge, but had five turnovers – including four Gus Frerotte INTs – and the Bears had a fumble-return TD and recovered a muffed punt for a score.
These franchises have met only once, with Minnesota taking a 34-28 overtime win in 2004 laying nine points on the road.
The Texans carry several negative pointspread streaks, including 2-5 overall, 3-8 in roadies against the NFC, 1-5 overall on the road and 1-6 on artificial turf. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following the bye, but otherwise they’re on ATS skids of 2-8 overall, 0-4 against losing teams, 1-4 at the dome and 2-5 after a non-cover.
The over for Houston is on runs of 8-1 overall (6-1 this season) and 5-0 on the road, and the over for Minnesota is on tears of 10-1-1 following the bye, 12-3-1 after a pointspread defeat and 7-2-1 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Jacksonville (3-4, 2-5 ATS) at Cincinnati (0-8, 2-6 ATS)
The hapless Bengals, still seeking their first win, welcome the underachieving Jaguars to Paul Brown Stadium.
Cincinnati got pelted 35-6 at Houston as a nine-point pup for its third straight double-digit loss and its third straight non-cover. In fact, the Bengals’ margin of defeat has increased in each of the last six games. Cincy remains without QB Carson Palmer (elbow), and Ryan Fitzpatrick (20 of 32, 155 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 1 lost fumble) was simply overwhelmed by the Texans. The Bengals finished with just 253 total yards, while allowing 384.
Jacksonville was stunned by Cleveland 23-17 as a seven-point home chalk for its third ATS setback in the last four games. The Jags dominated statistically, with a 380-327 yardage edge and 10 minutes more in time of possession, but special teams sealed their fate, as they had a field goal blocked and fumbled a fourth-quarter kickoff, leading to the Browns’ go-ahead field goal.
Jacksonville is on a 4-0 SU run (3-0-1 ATS) against Cincinnati, but these two haven’t faced each other since 2005, when the Jags took a 23-20 home win laying three points. Jacksonville is on ATS runs in this rivalry of 7-2-1 overall and 4-1 in Cincy, and the favorite is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 clashes.
The Bengals are on ATS downfalls of 1-4 overall, 9-20-1 at home (0-3 this year), 0-6 against the AFC, 1-6 against losing teams and 4-8 as a non-division home ‘dog. The Jaguars are in ATS ruts of 2-5 overall and 4-9 as a road chalk, but they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 on the highway and 5-2 ATS in their last seven after a SU loss.
The over is 5-2-1 in the last eight games between these two in Cincinnati, and the over for Jacksonville is on tears of 13-4-2 overall, 5-1 against losing teams and 8-2-1 on the road. However, for Cincinnati, the under is on stretches of 10-4 overall and 5-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE
Tampa Bay (5-3 SU and ATS) at Kansas City (1-6, 3-4 ATS)
The Buccaneers, who had a two-game winning streak snapped last week, look to bounce back at Arrowhead Stadium in a non-conference contest against the struggling Chiefs.
Tampa Bay is coming off a 13-9 loss at Dallas, failing to cash as a one-point road pup for its second consecutive ATS setback after five straight spread-covers. QB Jeff Garcia chucked the ball 43 times but really didn’t get much bang for his buck, completing 27 passes for just 227 yards with no TDs or INTs. The Bucs gained just 262 total yards and committed the game’s only turnover, losing despite holding the Cowboys to 172 total yards.
Kansas City put up a fight last Sunday but still fell short in a 28-24 loss to the New York Jets, though it did cash as a heavy 14-point road ‘dog, halting a two-game ATS hiccup. Tyler Thigpen (25 of 36, 280 yards, 2 TDs), the latest entrant in the Chiefs’ musical QBs contest, had a solid day, and K.C. won the turnover battle 3-0 – all Brett Favre INTs – but the Chiefs let Favre get his second TD pass of the day with just over a minute remaining to decide the game.
These teams have met just twice in the past 10 years, with Tampa going 2-0 SU and ATS. Most recently, the Bucs earned a 34-31 home win as a three-point underdog in 2004.
The Buccaneers are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last seven as a non-division road favorite, but they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU setback. Meanwhile, despite cashing last week, the Chiefs are on nothing but negative ATS runs, including 2-8-1 at home, 1-4 after a spread-cover, 1-4 against winning teams and 3-9 on grass.
The under is on a 4-0 run overall for Tampa Bay, but the total has cleared the posted price in six of the Bucs’ last eight road games, and the over for Kansas City is on streaks of 4-1 overall and 7-2 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
Baltimore (4-3, 5-2 ATS) at Cleveland (3-4, 5-2 ATS)
The Ravens will go after their third straight victory when they head to Ohio for an AFC North battle with the Browns.
Baltimore rolled over Oakland 29-10 laying nine points for its second consecutive win and cover, giving the SU winner a 16-2 ATS mark in the Ravens’ last 18 contests (6-1 ATS this year). Rookie QB Joe Flacco (12 of 24, 140 yards, 1 TD, no turnovers) still isn’t being asked to do much, though he did have a 43-yard reception on a trick play to help set up a field goal. Baltimore rushed for 192 yards and dominated on defense, allowing just 234 total yards, no first-half points and recording a safety.
Cleveland pulled off a 23-17 upset at Jacksonville catching seven points, moving to 4-0 ATS (3-1 SU) in its last four games. QB Derek Anderson (14 of 27, 246 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was serviceable enough, and the Browns made up for a 10-minute deficit in time of possession by blocking a field goal and recovering a fumbled kickoff – both in the fourth quarter.
Cleveland is on a 5-1 ATS run (3-3 SU) in this rivalry, but in Week 3 this season, Baltimore scored a 28-10 home win giving one point. The host is 7-2 ATS in the last nine matchups, with the Browns cashing in the last four meetings in Cleveland.
The Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games and 4-0 ATS in their last four division tilts, but they’re still on pointspread slides of 8-22 overall on the highway and 5-11 in division road games. The Browns, meanwhile, sport a plethora of positive ATS trends, including 17-5 overall, 9-1 at home, 14-3 against winning teams and 6-2 inside the division.
The over for Baltimore is on streaks of 10-4 overall, 8-2-1 in division play and 5-2 in roadies, but the under for Cleveland is on runs of 11-2 overall, 7-1 against the AFC and 5-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
N.Y. Jets (4-3, 3-4 ATS) at Buffalo (5-2, 4-3 ATS)
The Bills, who have dropped two of three after a 5-0 start, will try to get back on track at Ralph Wilson Stadium in a crucial AFC East battle against the Jets.
Buffalo tumbled to Miami 25-16 as a one-point road ‘dog, giving the SU winner a 6-1 ATS mark for the Bills this season. QB Trent Edwards (21 of 35, 227 yards, 0 TDs) had a miserable fourth quarter, throwing an INT, losing a fumble, then getting sacked for a safety on three consecutive drives. Buffalo added another turnover on its final drive, finishing with a 4-1 deficit in that category in an otherwise evenly played game.
New York barely got past Kansas City 28-24, but never threatened to cash as a healthy 14-point chalk for its second straight ATS defeat, marking the first time the SU winner hasn’t covered in the Jets’ seven games this year. QB Brett Favre (28 of 40, 290 yards, 2 TDs) threw three INTs and now has a league-worst 11 picks, but he hooked up with Laveranues Coles late on the game-winning TD pass. The Jets D failed to force a turnover.
Buffalo is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in this series – all as an underdog – including a 17-14 home win last year as a 3½-point pup. The Bills are 7-2 ATS in the last nine clashes (4-1 ATS in Buffalo), but the underdog has pulled off five straight upset victories in this rivalry.
The Bills are on ATS streaks of 4-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 after a SU loss, 14-4 on turf, 12-4 at home and 7-2 as a division home chalk. The Jets have cashed in six consecutive games as a divisional road underdog, but they are mired in ATS funks of 1-4 against the AFC, 2-7 after a SU win and 2-6 on turf.
The under is 8-3 in New York’s last 11 overall and is 4-1 in the Jets’ last five on the road, but the over for Buffalo is on runs of 7-1 on turf and 6-1 at home, and in this rivalry, the over is on streaks of 5-2 overall and 6-2 in Buffalo.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO and OVER
Arizona (4-3 SU and ATS) at St. Louis (2-5, 3-4 ATS)
Two NFC West rivals that have performed well lately at the betting window get together when the Cardinals travel to the Edward Jones Dome to take on the Rams.
Arizona had Carolina on the ropes last week, taking a 17-3 lead early in the third quarter before getting outscored 24-6 the rest of the way in a 27-23 setback. However, the Cards cashed as a five-point pup cashed for its third straight spread-cover. The SU winner is still 14-2 ATS in Arizona’s last 16 contests (6-1 ATS this year). QB Kurt Warner (35 of 49, 381 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a monster day as Arizona abandoned the run, but the Cardinals’ two turnovers – a fumble and an INT, both in the second half – were ultimately converted into 10 Carolina points.
St. Louis gave New England all it could handle a week ago before losing 23-16, but as a nine-point pup, the Rams covered for the third consecutive week. Prior to last week’s result, the SU winner had been 9-0 ATS in St. Louis’ previous nine outings. QB Marc Bulger (18 of 34, 304 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had a solid game, but his lone INT ended the Rams’ potential game-tying drive in the fourth quarter.
Arizona has won three in a row in this NFC West rivalry (2-1 ATS), though St. Louis covered at home in a 34-31 loss as a 3½-point pup last year. The Redbirds are 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to St. Louis, but the underdog is on an 8-1 ATS roll in the last nine clashes.
The Cardinals are on ATS runs of 6-2 overall, 4-1 against the NFC, 7-3 inside the division and 11-4 after a SU loss. Meanwhile, despite their current 3-0 ATS streak, the Rams are on pointspread dips of 3-7 overall, 2-8 in home division contests, 1-4 overall at the dome, 3-10 against winning teams and 19-40-1 after a SU loss.
In this rivalry, the over is on runs of 4-1 overall and 5-1 in St. Louis. Furthermore, the over for Arizona is on tears of 36-17 overall, 39-15 on the highway and 4-0 on turf, and for St. Louis, the over is on stretches of 7-3 overall and 6-0 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Detroit (0-7, 2-5 ATS) at Chicago (4-3, 4-2-1 ATS)
The Bears, who had their bye last week, should be well-rested for arguably the league’s worst team when the Lions roll into Soldier Field.
Chicago fended off Minnesota in a 48-41 shootout two weeks ago as a three-point favorite, giving the SU winner a 19-1-1 ATS mark in the Bears’ last 21 games. Chicago was dominated in total yards, allowing 439 while gaining 327, and had a 10-minute time-of-possession deficit, but QB Kyle Orton (21 of 32, 283 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had a strong outing. The Bears also forced a whopping five turnovers (4 INTs) and scored off a blocked punt and a botched Vikings punt return.
Detroit lost to Washington 25-17 last week, coming up just short as a seven-point home underdog to halt a two-game ATS surge. The Lions, who have lost eight straight and 14 of 15 going back to last year (3-12 ATS), actually led 10-6 at halftime, then got outscored 19-7 in the second half, allowing two big plays from Santana Moss – a 50-yard TD catch and an 80-yard punt return for a TD. QB Dan Orlovsky (21 of 25, 233 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) helped Detroit avoid any turnovers, but the Lions were outgained by a whopping 439-274 margin and lost the time-of-possession battle by nearly a quarter.
Chicago pounded Detroit 34-7 four weeks ago as a 3½-point road chalk, ending a 3-0 ATS run by the Lions in this NFC North rivalry. However, the underdog is still 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
The Bears are on a 2-7 ATS plunge coming off the bye, but they carry several positive ATS trends, including 7-2-1 overall, 4-1 at Soldier Field, 4-0 inside the division and 7-3 in home division games. Conversely, in addition to their ongoing 3-12 ATS freefall, the Lions are on spread slumps of 0-4 against winning teams, 4-10-1 against division foes, 6-14 on the road and 3-9 after a SU loss.
The over for Detroit is on runs of 9-3-1 overall, 4-1 on grass and 6-2 on the highway, and for the Bears, the over is on streaks of 18-5 at home, 5-1 on grass and 25-9-1 against NFC opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO and OVER
Green Bay (4-3 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (7-0 SU and ATS)
The scorching-hot Titans, who remain the NFL’s lone unbeaten squad, will try to keep their perfect SU and ATS records intact when they welcome the Packers to LP Field for a non-conference affair.
Tennessee got off to a slow start Monday night against Indianapolis, then rolled up 25 second-half points to breeze to a 31-21 win and cover as a four-point home chalk. The SU winner is now 15-1-1 ATS in the Titans’ last 17 outings. Against Indy, QB Kerry Collins (24 of 37, 193 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was far from spectacular, but he led an offense that committed no turnovers. The defense, meanwhile, picked off Peyton Manning twice and stifled Indy on consecutive fourth-down attempts in the fourth quarter.
Green Bay, which had its bye last week, is also coming off a win over Indianapolis, posting a 34-14 rout as a one-point home pup two weeks ago for its second straight win and cover. QB Aaron Rodgers (21 of 28, 186 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was steady, and the Packers defense picked off Manning twice – with Aaron Rouse returning the second one 99 yards for a TD late in the game.
The SU winner is 15-1-1 ATS in Tennessee’s last 17 games overall and 24-0-1 in Green Bay’s last 25 contests dating to the 2007 season-opener.
These teams have met in each of the past four preseasons, but they haven’t had a regular-season tilt since 2004, when Tennessee rumbled to a 48-27 road win catching 3½ points. In this past preseason finale for both squads, the Titans won 23-21 in Green Bay, but the Packers cashed as a 6½-point home pup.
Along with their season-long 7-0 ATS run, the Titans are on several more pointspread streaks, including 15-4 hosting an NFC team, 7-0 after a SU win and 4-0 at LP Field. The Packers also sport a pack of positive ATS trends, including 20-8-1 overall, 11-3-1 on the highway, 6-3 against AFC foes and 13-5 after a SU win.
The over for Tennessee is on streaks of 4-1 overall and 5-2-1 at home, but the under is 6-1-1 in the Titans’ last nine against winning teams. Green Bay is on “over” streaks of 22-8-1 overall, 7-1 against winning teams and 37-18-2 in road games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Miami (3-4, 4-3 ATS) at Denver (4-3, 1-5-1 ATS)
The Broncos, who had a bye last week but whose defense has seemingly been on hiatus all season, return to action at Invesco Field at Mile High in a matchup with the Dolphins.
Denver got blasted 41-7 two Mondays ago at New England as a three-point pup for its fifth straight non-cover. The Broncos had four first-half turnovers that led to a 20-0 halftime deficit, and they finished with five turnovers – including two INTs from QB Jay Cutler – while forcing none. Cutler (17 of 26, 168 yards, 1 TD) had a poor showing, and the porous Denver defense gave up a whopping 257 rushing yards, including 138 to Sam Morris in just the first half.
Miami topped Buffalo 25-16 as a one-point home chalk last week, halting a two-game SU skid while covering for the fourth time in the past five games. QB Chad Pennington (22 of 30, 314 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) had a clean, efficient game, and the Dolphins won the turnover battle 4-1. In fact, on three straight Bills possessions in the fourth quarter, Miami’s defense got an INT, recovered a fumble and forced a safety. The Dolphins, who scored the game’s final 18 points, capped things with a fumble recovery on Buffalo’s final drive.
Miami is on a 5-0 ATS run (4-1 SU) against Denver, though these two teams haven’t met since 2005, when the Fish rolled 34-10 as a six-point home pup. In fact, Miami has been the underdog in four of the last five outings.
The Broncos are 6-0 ATS the last six years when coming off a bye, but the pointspread trends spiral downward in a hurry from there, including a dismal 7-23-1 overall, 4-13-1 at Mile High, 2-12 as a home chalk and 5-16-1 against AFC foes. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 games after a spread-cover, but they are on positive spread streaks of 6-1-1 in November, 5-1 against winning teams and 18-9-1 as a non-division ‘dog.
The over for Denver is on tears of 20-6-2 overall, 10-2-2 after a SU loss, 9-2 against losing teams and 13-3-1 at home, and the total has gone high on four of Miami’s last five road trips.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Atlanta (4-3 SU and ATS) at Oakland (2-5, 3-4 ATS)
The Falcons, who had their two-game winning streak snapped last week, aim to get their surprising season back on track with a trip to McAfee Coliseum to face the Raiders.
Atlanta lost to Philadelphia 27-14 as a 9½-point road ‘dog. The Falcons took a 7-0 lead early in the second quarter, but gave up 10 points in the last 2:30 before halftime and didn’t score again until the fourth quarter. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (23 of 44, 277 yards, 2 TDs) was forced to pass a lot with Atlanta playing from behind, and he paid by getting picked off twice – including once in the end zone. The Facons also let Eagles RB Brian Westbrook go off for 167 yards and two TDs on 22 carries.
Oakland followed up a 16-13 overtime home win over the Jets with last week’s 29-10 defeat at Baltimore, failing to cover as a nine-point road underdog. QB JaMarcus Russell (15 of 33, 228 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had yet another uninspired outing, and the Raiders couldn’t run the ball, finishing with just 47 rushing yards while allowing 192. For the game, Oakland got outgained 375-234.
The SU winner is 16-1 ATS in Baltimore’s last 17 games (7-0 this year) and 14-2 in Oakland’s last 16 (6-1 this year).
These clubs have met just twice this decade, with each winning and cashing at home. In the most recent battle in 2004, Atlanta coasted 35-10 giving 7½ points.
The Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last seven roadies, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 6-1 against the AFC on the road, 4-0 after a SU loss and 11-5 on grass. The Raiders are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five against NFC foes, and they are on further ATS slides of 9-19 overall, 9-24 at home, 17-37-1 after a non-cover and 20-43-1 after a SU loss.
The under is 19-7 in Atlanta’s last 26 road games. On the flip side, the over is 10-4 in the last 14 games overall for both teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
Dallas (5-3, 3-5 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (6-1, 5-2 ATS)
A classic NFC East confrontation is on tap when the Cowboys, still without starting quarterback Tony Romo, travel to East Rutherford, N.J., to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Giants in the first meeting of the season between these rivals.
Dallas held off Tampa Bay 13-9 in a defensive struggle last week to get the cash as a one-point home chalk, ending a two-game SU skid and a four-game ATS plunge. Aging backup QB Brad Johnson (19 of 33, 122 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) had a weak effort, and the Cowboys mustered just 172 total yards, but they didn’t turn the ball over and were able to stop Tampa’s last-minute drive for a potential game-winning score.
New York dropped Pittsburgh 21-14 getting three points on the road for its second consecutive win and cover, pushing the SU winner to 17-2 ATS in the Giants’ last 19 outings (6-1 ATS this season). In a defensive battle – neither team cracked 300 total yards – but Eli Manning (19 of 32, 199 yards, 1 TD) was turnover-free, while the Giants picked off Ben Roethlisberger four times.
New York stunned Dallas 21-17 as a seven-point road ‘dog in a divisional playoff game last January, ending a 3-0 SU run (2-0-1 ATS) by the Cowboys in this rivalry. That included a pair of regular-season wins and covers by the Cowboys in 2007 (45-35 at home, 31-20 in New York). The Giants are 5-2-2 ATS in the last nine clashes (playoffs included).
The Cowboys are on several ATS slides, including 3-9 overall, 2-5 on the highway 0-6 in division play (0-2 this year), 2-6 after a SU win and 2-5 against winning teams. On the flip side, the Giants sport a bevy of positive ATS trends, including 19-7 overall, 7-0 versus winning teams, 8-3 in home division contests and 10-4-1 inside the division.
For Dallas, the over is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 15-6-2 on the road, 9-4-3 against NFC East foes and 15-7-1 against winning teams. The over for New York is 7-3 in its last 10 home starts, and in this rivalry, the over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings at Giants Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS and OVER
Philadelphia (4-3, 5-2 ATS) at Seattle (2-5, 3-4 ATS)
The Eagles will try to run their winning streak to three when they make the cross-country trek to Qwest Field to face the Seahawks.
Philadelphia beat Atlanta 27-14 as a 9½-point home chalk, winning and cashing for the second straight week. QB Donovan McNabb (19 of 34, 253 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was mediocre, losing a fumble for Philly’s lone turnover, but RB Brian Westbrook returned from an injury and rushed for 167 yards and two TDs, and the Eagles’ defense forced three turnovers.
Seattle drilled San Francisco 34-13 as a five-point road pup last Sunday, ending a three-game losing skid (1-2 ATS). The Seahawks were outgained 388-261 and had an eight-minute time-of-possession deficit, but backuup QB Seneca Wallace (15 of 25, 222 yards, 2 TDs), continuing to sub for the injured Matt Hasselbeck, led a turnover-free offense, and Seattle converted two 49ers turnovers into 10 points, including a 75-yard INT return for a score.
The SU winner is 24-1 ATS in the Seahawks’ last 25 games dating to last season (6-1 ATS this year) and the winner has cashed in six of Philly’s seven contests in 2008.
Seattle has won and covered in the last two meetings between these teams, following a 2-0 SU and ATS run by Philadelphia, and the road team has cashed in the last five head-to-head clashes since 1998. Last December in Philadelphia, the Seahawks won 28-24 getting three points, ending a 4-0 ATS run by the favorite in this series.
The Eagles sport ATS streaks of 5-2 overall, 8-1 on the highway, 6-2 against the NFC and 7-3 outside the NFC East. On the flip side, the Seahawks are in ATS slumps of 3-6 as a non-division home pup, 0-5 after a SU win and 1-5 after a spread-cover, but they’ve cashed in seven of their last nine home starts.
The over for Philadelphia is on runs of 4-0 on the road and 4-1 on field turf, and the over for Seattle is on tears of 8-1-1 overall, 4-0-1 on field turf, 7-1-1 against NFC foes and 5-1-1 at home. Lastly, the last three meetings between these squads have hurdled the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
New England (5-2, 3-4 ATS) at Indianapolis (3-4 SU and ATS)
The Colts, who are in the surprising role of being desperate for a win at the season’s midway point, gear up for a prime-time battle with the archrival Patriots at Lucas Oil Field.
Indianapolis tumbled at Tennessee 31-21 last Monday night as a four-point road ‘dog for its second consecutive SU and ATS defeat. The SU winner has now taken the cash in each of the Colts’ last 10 games. QB Peyton Manning (26 of 41, 223 yards, 2 TDs) threw two INTs and now has nine picks against just 10 TDs so far this season. The Colts took a 14-6 lead early in the third quarter, but they then failed on fourth-down attempts on two consecutive drives, helping the Titans go on a 25-0 scoring run to put the game out of reach.
New England held off St. Louis 23-16 but failed to cover as a nine-point chalk, continuing the Pats’ season-long trend of alternating ATS wins and losses. QB Matt Cassel (21 of 33, 267 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) was a bit unsteady but led New England to 10 fourth-quarter points. The Patriots forced just one turnover, but it came at a critical time as Deltha O’Neal picked off Marc Bulger with the Rams driving late in the fourth quarter.
These squads, perhaps the top two teams in the league this decade, have had a bundle of critical matchups the past few years. Indianapolis is on a 4-0 ATS run (3-1 SU) in this rivalry, though New England got the SU win last year in a 24-20 decision as a five-point road chalk. The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 battles in Indy, and the underdog is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 series clashes (playoffs included).
The Colts are on ATS slides of 0-4 against winning teams, 1-4 at home, 2-5 after a SU loss and 2-5 on turf. The Patriots are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 roadies, but they are on pointspread downturns of 3-10 overall, 0-6 against losing teams, 1-9 after a SU win and 2-7 against AFC opponents.
The over is on runs of 4-1 for Indy overall, 10-5 for New England on the road, 6-2 for the Colts after a non-cover and 4-1 in the last five meetings between these rivals in Indianapolis. However, New England enters this contest on a 9-3-2 “under” tear overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
