Vince Akins's Pick Pack
NFL Sunday Picks
Premium Plays
Matchup: Baltimore at Cincinnati
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (46 -110)
Line Source: Sportsbook.ag
Posted on: October 24, 2014 @ 10:42:29 PM EDT
4.5-STAR Baltimore and Cincinnati Under - Even though Cincinnati's defense has been struggling of late, with Baltimore's history against the Bengals they are not going to try to win in a high-scoring game. Baltimore has not scored more than 20 points in their last four meetings against Cincinnati and will be more inclined to let the defense carry them to victory.
Both these teams are coming off of games that were expected to be quite high scoring and never got there. Baltimore's last game had a total of 49.5 and went under by 13.5 points. The Bengals game had a total of 49.5 and the total scoring was just 27 points. Teams after a game where the total was at least 49 and it went under by more than 12 points are 40-64-1 OU (p:total>=49 and p
u margin<-12).
The Ravens are small dogs here after defeating the Falcons last game, 29-7. Underdogs who won by at least 20 points last game are 169-214-7 OU (D and p:margin>=20).
Even in that game they played conservatively by running the ball, with 36 carries in the win. Teams in games where the total is at least 44.5 who ran the ball more than 35 times last game are 211-265-6 OU (p:rushes>35 and total>=44.5).
They win by controlling the ball. They've punted just three times per game, fewest in the league. The Bengals are 0-7 OU (-11.07 ppg) since Dec 04, 2011 when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date (team=Bengals and Average(o
unts@o:team and season)<4 and date>=20111204).
Cincinnati meanwhile is coming off a 27-0 loss to Indianapolis. They got beat in such dominating fashion that they did not even turn the ball over in a game where they were shutout . The Bengals are 0-6 OU (-12.33 ppg) since Dec 17, 2000 the week after a loss in which they committed no turnovers (team=Bengals and p:turnovers=0 and p:L and date>=20001217).
This is a two week stretch of big games for the Ravens as they travel to Pittsburgh next week as well. The Ravens are 0-14 OU (-11.1 ppg) since Sep 03, 2000 within 3 of pick vs a divisional opponent with a divisional opponent next game, if the teams combined for more than 20 points last meeting (team=Ravens and (-3<=line<=3) and DIV and n
IV and season>=2000 and Pooints+Points>20).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 37 points
Matchup: Minnesota at Tampa Bay
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Minnesota (+3 -120)
Line Source: William Hill
Posted on: October 24, 2014 @ 10:42:29 PM EDT
4.5-STAR Minnesota over TAMPA BAY - If you look at these teams' records, things look pretty similar with Minnesota carrying a half game edge. However, when you look at the point differentials of -40 and -84, one team looks far better than the other. As history tells us, Tampa Bay's big losses matter long term when looking at their skill level and there is no way we would want to lay points with the Bucs.
For Minnesota, this is their second straight road game. Teams that are playing their second straight road game are 471-359-20 ATS since 2003 (A and p:A and season>=2003). Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are 0-10 ATS (-17.0 ppg) since Dec 21, 2008 when the total is no more than 49 and their opponent is playing in at least their second straight road game (team=Buccaneers and H and op:A and total<=49 and date>=20081221).
Last week they were 5.5-point dogs in Buffalo where they lost, 17-16. Past week five of the season, away teams within three of pick, after they covered in a loss as a dog last game are 48-16-1 ATS (3>=line>=-3 and A and p:ats margin>0 and p:LD and week>5).
However they led for much of that game including in the final seconds. They were up 13-10 at halftime. The Vikings are 6-0 ATS (5.58 ppg) since Sep 25, 2011 as a dog after a loss in which they were winning at the half (team=Vikings and D and p:L and 0=20110925).
Even against a ball control type team in Buffalo, Minnesota had the ball for 32:23 on the road. The Vikings are 12-0 ATS as a dog the week after a road game in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average and committed fewer than five turnovers (team=Vikings and D and p:A and NB and p:TOP - tA(p:TOP)>=180 and p:TO<5).
It was a safe game from Teddy Bridgewater with just 157 passing yards, as Minnesota's throwing totals have gone down over his three starts. The Vikings are 7-0 ATS (10.43 ppg) since Dec 24, 2011 when their passing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks (team=Vikings and passing yards=20111224).
Tampa Bay comes in off a bye but before that they were destroyed on both sides of the ball in a 48-17 loss to Baltimore that wasn't even that close. Favorites who allowed at least 37 points last game and scored no more than 19 points are 61-89-3 ATS (pooints>=37 and F and points<=19).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Minnesota 24, TAMPA BAY 17
Matchup: Seattle at Carolina
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Seattle (-4.5 -110)
Line Source: CG Technology
Posted on: October 24, 2014 @ 10:42:29 PM EDT
4.5-STAR Seattle over CAROLINA - Seattle might not be quite to the level that they were a season ago, but there is nothing inherently wrong with them. Carolina on the other hand has major problems. To be successful, the Panthers needs games where Cam Newton can carry them on his back but Seattle is not a team he can do that against.
Seattle comes in having lost back-to-back games as sizable favorites. The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS (14.29 ppg) since Nov 06, 2006 as a favorite when they lost and failed to cover their last two games (team=Seahawks and F and streak<=-2 and ats streak<=-2 and date>=20061106).
Vegas is undeterred even with those back-to-back losses and you should have confident too. Teams that are 3.5-8 point favorites after two straight losses as favorites are 42-25-2 ATS (p:FL and pp:FL and -8<=line<=-3.5).
Seattle is on the road for the second straight game after losing in St. Louis last week. Teams that are playing their second straight road game are 471-359-20 ATS since 2003 (A and p:A and season>=2003).
It was a narrow 28-26 loss to the Rams. The Seahawks are 10-0 ATS (12.2 ppg) since Dec 13, 1998 as a favorite when they lost 1-3 points last week (team=Seahawks and F and -3<=p:margin<0 and week>3 and date>=19981213).
Seattle did not have much trouble moving the ball as they played catch up. They picked up 463 yards offense in the loss. The Seahawks are 22-0 ATS (13.2 ppg) since November 19, 1995 if the are not 11+ point dogs the week after a game where they were not 4+ points dogs in which they had at least 97 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average (team=Seahawks and line<11 and p:line<4 and NB and p:TY-97>=tA(p:TY) and pooints>7 and date>=19951119).
They controlled the time of possession battle as well with 32:24 time of possession. The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS (14.06 ppg) since Nov 10, 2002 the week after a loss in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average (team=Seahawks and p:L and Average(p:time of possession@team and season and p:season=season) + 180<=p:time of possession and date>=20021110).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Seattle 31, CAROLINA 17
Matchup: Baltimore at Cincinnati
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Baltimore (-1.5 -110)
Line Source: William Hill
Posted on: October 24, 2014 @ 10:42:29 PM EDT
4-STAR Baltimore over CINCINNATI - The way these teams have been playing the last couple weeks you might forget that it is Baltimore who really needs this game having already lost to Cincinnati this season. The Bengals defense just isn't there right now and without a healthy AJ Green they just don't matchup up well in any aspect of the game.
Look for the Baltimore to rely heavily on the ground game here. Cincinnati is giving up 4.83 yards per carry this season, ranking 29th in the league. The Ravens are 10-0-1 ATS (13.4 ppg) since September 25, 2011 when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date (team=Ravens and 4.5=20110925).
Baltimore has been picking up plenty of yards with a steady run game as is. Just 52.5% of their first downs come through the air, second fewest in the league. The Bengals are 0-14 ATS (-9.5 ppg) since Dec 26, 2004 at home if not a double digit dog, when facing a team that gets less than 54.5% of their first downs via the pass (team=Bengals and H and line>-10 and Sum(o:first downs*0.545@ o:team and o:season)>Sum(oassing first downs@ o:team and o:season) and date>=20041226).
Against Atlanta last week they ran for 123 yards with Justin Forsett leading the way with 95 yards. The Ravens are 7-0 ATS (13.6 ppg) since January 6, 2013 after a game where they had a rusher pick up more than 75 yards (team=Ravens and 75=20130106).
Cincinnati meanwhile lost to Indianapolis last week, 27-0. They were three point underdogs in that game. The Bengals are 0-9 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since Nov 22, 1998 as a favorite when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week after a non-divisional opponent (team=Bengals and F and p:ats margin<=-10 and p:NDIV and date>=19981122).
While their defense has been bad for three straight weeks, their offense did a complete 180 last week. The game before they put up 37 points in a tie against Cincinnati. Teams that scored no more than seven points last game after scoring more than 35 points two games ago are 24-37-1 ATS (points<=7 and ppoints>35).
When these teams met in week one, things looked far different as when Cincinnati beat Baltimore, 23-16. Cincinnati has not been particularly good against divisional foes in general and really struggle when going for a season sweep. The Bengals are 0-6 ATS (-11.08 ppg) since Dec 31, 2006 if not 3+ point dogs when facing a team they beat in their first match-up (team=Bengals and line<3 and P:W and P:season=season and date>=20061231).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Baltimore by 11
Member Plays
Matchup: Detroit at Atlanta
Time: 9:30 AM EDT (Sun)
Play: Over (46.5 -110)
Line Source: 5Dimes
Posted on: October 24, 2014 @ 10:42:29 PM EDT
4-STAR Atlanta and Detroit Over - This 9:30 a.m EST start is new among NFL games and with players playing a bit sluggishly, we expect unusual things to happen - and happen in the way of points. With Detroit featuring such a great run defense, we suspect the Falcons will abandon the run early and try to keep up as their shoddy defense keeps allowing points.
Atlanta's offense laid a dude in a 29-7 loss to the Ravens. The Falcons are 13-0 OU (12.8 ppg) since November 11, 1990 as a dog with a total of at least 35 after scoring fewer than 10 points on the road (team=Falcons and D and total>=35 and points<10 and p:A and date>=19901111).
They also had to give up on the run quickly in that game. They had just 16 carries with Stephen Jackson as their top ball carrier with just eight. Since 2007, teams that did not have a ball carrier with double digit carries last game are 182-140-1 OU (max:rushes<10 and season>=2007).
That loss was the fourth straight double digit loss the Falcons have suffered. The Lions are 6-0 OU (17.92 ppg) since Sep 22, 1991 as a road favorite when their opponent is off two 7+ losses (team=Lions and AF and op:margin<=-7 and opp:margin<=-7 and opp:week + 2==week and date>=19910922).
Detroit meanwhile has won four of their last five games, including their past two away from home. The Lions are 10-0 OU (8.10 ppg) since Nov 21, 1993 on the road when they won their last two road games (team=Lions and A and Sum(W@team and season and site=away,N=2)=2 and date>=19931121).
One issue their offense has faced is protecting Matthew Stafford. Against a Falcons pass rush that is almost non-existent, that shouldn't be a major issue. The Lions are 9-0 OU (9.44 ppg) since Oct 28, 2001 as a favorite when they suffered at least three sacks in each of the last two weeks (team=Lions and F and 3<=po:sacks and 3<=ppo:sacks and date>=20011028).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 55 points
Matchup: Philadelphia at Arizona
Time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Philadelphia (+2.5 -110)
Line Source: Stations
Posted on: October 24, 2014 @ 10:42:29 PM EDT
4-STAR Philadelphia over ARIZONA - Philadelphia and Arizona are at the top of the NFC along with Dallas record wise, but the Cardinals haven't been tested for the past two weeks after their big loss at Denver, picking up close wins against bad teams. When Carson Palmer needs to win a game with his arm, as will be the case here, we're not sure he's up for the task. On the other side, you are getting maybe the best strategist in football with an extra week to prepare. Coming off of their bye last season, they beat the Cardinals and we see that occurring two years in a row.
Philadelphia went into the bye with a ton of momentum after playing one of the best games of any team all season. They defeated the rival Giants, 27-0, on Sunday night football. Teams coming off a primetime win of at least 22 points are 101-77-3 ATS ((p:snf=1 or p:day!=Sunday) and p:margin>=22).
New York was expected to score 23.75 points in that game yet the Eagles defense held them scoreless. Teams that allowed at least 18.75 points less than expected last game are 68-46-3 ATS (p:dpa<=-18.75).
Arizona comes into this game after a pair of wins and covers over Washington and Oakland. The Cardinals are 0-10 ATS (-6.85 ppg) since Oct 04, 1998 as a favorite when they won and covered their last two games (team=Cardinals and F and streak>=2 and ats streak>=2 and date>=19981004).
In both games, Carson Palmer was able to get away with playing conservatively. Against Oakland, he was particularly effective in that capacity, going 22-of-31 for 253 yards. With Drew Stanton at QB, their passing attack had not been nearly as high percentage. The Cardinals are 0-8-1 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since Oct 04, 1998 as a home favorite after a win in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average (team=Cardinals and HF and p:W and Average((100.*p:completions)@team and season and p:season=season) / Average(passes@team and season and p:season=season) + 10<=100. * p:completions / passes and date>=19981004).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Philadelphia by 4
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Green Bay at New Orleans
Time: 8:30 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: New Orleans (-1 -110)
Line Source: Sportsbook.ag
Posted on: October 24, 2014 @ 10:42:29 PM EDT
4.5-STAR NEW ORLEANS over Green Bay - At 2-4, people are writing off the Saints. But just last week, they dominated one of the best teams in the NFC on the road for 57 minutes. A team that the Packers couldn't compete with just a few weeks back. They have a huge advantage in primetime home games in the dome and we think they get this must win game.
While New Orleans always has a home field advantage among the best in football, in primetime the advantage is even bigger. The Saints are 10-0-1 ATS (15.8 ppg) since January 2010 at home in Sunday night or non-Sunday games (team=Saints and (snf=1 or day!=Sunday) and H and date>=20100101).
Even at 2-4 this season the Saints are 2-0 at home. The Saints are 12-0-1 ATS (14.54 ppg) since Oct 23, 2011 as a home favorite when they won their last two home games (team=Saints and HF and Sum(0=20111023).
Last week they outplayed Detroit yet came up short down the stretch in a 24-23 loss. The Saints are 13-0 ATS (14.3 ppg) as a favorite after a loss as a dog (team=Saints and p:LD and F and date>=20071101). Also, the Saints are 7-0-1 ATS (9.38 ppg) since Dec 28, 2003 when they lost 1-3 points last week after a non-divisional opponent (team=Saints and -3<=p:margin<0 and NDIV and date>=20031228).
Even in the loss they outgained the Lions by 64 yards. The Saints are 11-0 ATS (19.2 ppg) since Sep 28, 2008 as a favorite when they are not winless on the year, after a loss in which they outgained their opponent (team=Saints and F and p:L and p:TY>po:TY and wins>0 and date>=20080928)
That was the case despite fewer than 28 minutes of possession in the game. The Saints are 13-0 ATS (13.9 ppg) since November 2004 the week after a loss on the road in which they had at least two fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average (team=Saints and p:AL and p:TOP - tA(p:TOP) <= -120 and n:week-1=week and date>=20041101).
Green Bay meanwhile won 38-17 over Carolina last game. They were up 21-0 after one quarter of the blowout win. Teams that were up at least 20 points after one quarter last game are 17-34-1 ATS (p:M1>=20).
At halftime, it was 28-3 Packers. The Packers are 0-12-1 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick when they were up at the half and won by more than a TD last week (team=Packers and -3<=line<=3 and p:margin>7 and p:M2>0 and NB and season>=2006).
However they are going inside on the turf here, where they tend not to play quite as strong. The Packers are 0-6 ATS (-8.83 ppg) since Sep 24, 2012 within 3 of pick on artificial turf (team=Packers and (-3<=t:line<=3) and surface=artificial and date>=20120924).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NEW ORLEANS 34, Green Bay 24
NFL Sunday Picks
Premium Plays
Matchup: Baltimore at Cincinnati
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (46 -110)
Line Source: Sportsbook.ag
Posted on: October 24, 2014 @ 10:42:29 PM EDT
4.5-STAR Baltimore and Cincinnati Under - Even though Cincinnati's defense has been struggling of late, with Baltimore's history against the Bengals they are not going to try to win in a high-scoring game. Baltimore has not scored more than 20 points in their last four meetings against Cincinnati and will be more inclined to let the defense carry them to victory.
Both these teams are coming off of games that were expected to be quite high scoring and never got there. Baltimore's last game had a total of 49.5 and went under by 13.5 points. The Bengals game had a total of 49.5 and the total scoring was just 27 points. Teams after a game where the total was at least 49 and it went under by more than 12 points are 40-64-1 OU (p:total>=49 and p
u margin<-12).The Ravens are small dogs here after defeating the Falcons last game, 29-7. Underdogs who won by at least 20 points last game are 169-214-7 OU (D and p:margin>=20).
Even in that game they played conservatively by running the ball, with 36 carries in the win. Teams in games where the total is at least 44.5 who ran the ball more than 35 times last game are 211-265-6 OU (p:rushes>35 and total>=44.5).
They win by controlling the ball. They've punted just three times per game, fewest in the league. The Bengals are 0-7 OU (-11.07 ppg) since Dec 04, 2011 when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date (team=Bengals and Average(o
unts@o:team and season)<4 and date>=20111204).Cincinnati meanwhile is coming off a 27-0 loss to Indianapolis. They got beat in such dominating fashion that they did not even turn the ball over in a game where they were shutout . The Bengals are 0-6 OU (-12.33 ppg) since Dec 17, 2000 the week after a loss in which they committed no turnovers (team=Bengals and p:turnovers=0 and p:L and date>=20001217).
This is a two week stretch of big games for the Ravens as they travel to Pittsburgh next week as well. The Ravens are 0-14 OU (-11.1 ppg) since Sep 03, 2000 within 3 of pick vs a divisional opponent with a divisional opponent next game, if the teams combined for more than 20 points last meeting (team=Ravens and (-3<=line<=3) and DIV and n
IV and season>=2000 and Pooints+Points>20).SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 37 points
Matchup: Minnesota at Tampa Bay
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Minnesota (+3 -120)
Line Source: William Hill
Posted on: October 24, 2014 @ 10:42:29 PM EDT
4.5-STAR Minnesota over TAMPA BAY - If you look at these teams' records, things look pretty similar with Minnesota carrying a half game edge. However, when you look at the point differentials of -40 and -84, one team looks far better than the other. As history tells us, Tampa Bay's big losses matter long term when looking at their skill level and there is no way we would want to lay points with the Bucs.
For Minnesota, this is their second straight road game. Teams that are playing their second straight road game are 471-359-20 ATS since 2003 (A and p:A and season>=2003). Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are 0-10 ATS (-17.0 ppg) since Dec 21, 2008 when the total is no more than 49 and their opponent is playing in at least their second straight road game (team=Buccaneers and H and op:A and total<=49 and date>=20081221).
Last week they were 5.5-point dogs in Buffalo where they lost, 17-16. Past week five of the season, away teams within three of pick, after they covered in a loss as a dog last game are 48-16-1 ATS (3>=line>=-3 and A and p:ats margin>0 and p:LD and week>5).
However they led for much of that game including in the final seconds. They were up 13-10 at halftime. The Vikings are 6-0 ATS (5.58 ppg) since Sep 25, 2011 as a dog after a loss in which they were winning at the half (team=Vikings and D and p:L and 0=20110925).
Even against a ball control type team in Buffalo, Minnesota had the ball for 32:23 on the road. The Vikings are 12-0 ATS as a dog the week after a road game in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average and committed fewer than five turnovers (team=Vikings and D and p:A and NB and p:TOP - tA(p:TOP)>=180 and p:TO<5).
It was a safe game from Teddy Bridgewater with just 157 passing yards, as Minnesota's throwing totals have gone down over his three starts. The Vikings are 7-0 ATS (10.43 ppg) since Dec 24, 2011 when their passing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks (team=Vikings and p
assing yards=20111224).Tampa Bay comes in off a bye but before that they were destroyed on both sides of the ball in a 48-17 loss to Baltimore that wasn't even that close. Favorites who allowed at least 37 points last game and scored no more than 19 points are 61-89-3 ATS (po
oints>=37 and F and points<=19).SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Minnesota 24, TAMPA BAY 17
Matchup: Seattle at Carolina
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Seattle (-4.5 -110)
Line Source: CG Technology
Posted on: October 24, 2014 @ 10:42:29 PM EDT
4.5-STAR Seattle over CAROLINA - Seattle might not be quite to the level that they were a season ago, but there is nothing inherently wrong with them. Carolina on the other hand has major problems. To be successful, the Panthers needs games where Cam Newton can carry them on his back but Seattle is not a team he can do that against.
Seattle comes in having lost back-to-back games as sizable favorites. The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS (14.29 ppg) since Nov 06, 2006 as a favorite when they lost and failed to cover their last two games (team=Seahawks and F and streak<=-2 and ats streak<=-2 and date>=20061106).
Vegas is undeterred even with those back-to-back losses and you should have confident too. Teams that are 3.5-8 point favorites after two straight losses as favorites are 42-25-2 ATS (p:FL and pp:FL and -8<=line<=-3.5).
Seattle is on the road for the second straight game after losing in St. Louis last week. Teams that are playing their second straight road game are 471-359-20 ATS since 2003 (A and p:A and season>=2003).
It was a narrow 28-26 loss to the Rams. The Seahawks are 10-0 ATS (12.2 ppg) since Dec 13, 1998 as a favorite when they lost 1-3 points last week (team=Seahawks and F and -3<=p:margin<0 and week>3 and date>=19981213).
Seattle did not have much trouble moving the ball as they played catch up. They picked up 463 yards offense in the loss. The Seahawks are 22-0 ATS (13.2 ppg) since November 19, 1995 if the are not 11+ point dogs the week after a game where they were not 4+ points dogs in which they had at least 97 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average (team=Seahawks and line<11 and p:line<4 and NB and p:TY-97>=tA(p:TY) and po
oints>7 and date>=19951119).They controlled the time of possession battle as well with 32:24 time of possession. The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS (14.06 ppg) since Nov 10, 2002 the week after a loss in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average (team=Seahawks and p:L and Average(p:time of possession@team and season and p:season=season) + 180<=p:time of possession and date>=20021110).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Seattle 31, CAROLINA 17
Matchup: Baltimore at Cincinnati
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Baltimore (-1.5 -110)
Line Source: William Hill
Posted on: October 24, 2014 @ 10:42:29 PM EDT
4-STAR Baltimore over CINCINNATI - The way these teams have been playing the last couple weeks you might forget that it is Baltimore who really needs this game having already lost to Cincinnati this season. The Bengals defense just isn't there right now and without a healthy AJ Green they just don't matchup up well in any aspect of the game.
Look for the Baltimore to rely heavily on the ground game here. Cincinnati is giving up 4.83 yards per carry this season, ranking 29th in the league. The Ravens are 10-0-1 ATS (13.4 ppg) since September 25, 2011 when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date (team=Ravens and 4.5=20110925).
Baltimore has been picking up plenty of yards with a steady run game as is. Just 52.5% of their first downs come through the air, second fewest in the league. The Bengals are 0-14 ATS (-9.5 ppg) since Dec 26, 2004 at home if not a double digit dog, when facing a team that gets less than 54.5% of their first downs via the pass (team=Bengals and H and line>-10 and Sum(o:first downs*0.545@ o:team and o:season)>Sum(o
assing first downs@ o:team and o:season) and date>=20041226).Against Atlanta last week they ran for 123 yards with Justin Forsett leading the way with 95 yards. The Ravens are 7-0 ATS (13.6 ppg) since January 6, 2013 after a game where they had a rusher pick up more than 75 yards (team=Ravens and 75=20130106).
Cincinnati meanwhile lost to Indianapolis last week, 27-0. They were three point underdogs in that game. The Bengals are 0-9 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since Nov 22, 1998 as a favorite when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week after a non-divisional opponent (team=Bengals and F and p:ats margin<=-10 and p:NDIV and date>=19981122).
While their defense has been bad for three straight weeks, their offense did a complete 180 last week. The game before they put up 37 points in a tie against Cincinnati. Teams that scored no more than seven points last game after scoring more than 35 points two games ago are 24-37-1 ATS (p
oints<=7 and ppoints>35).When these teams met in week one, things looked far different as when Cincinnati beat Baltimore, 23-16. Cincinnati has not been particularly good against divisional foes in general and really struggle when going for a season sweep. The Bengals are 0-6 ATS (-11.08 ppg) since Dec 31, 2006 if not 3+ point dogs when facing a team they beat in their first match-up (team=Bengals and line<3 and P:W and P:season=season and date>=20061231).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Baltimore by 11
Member Plays
Matchup: Detroit at Atlanta
Time: 9:30 AM EDT (Sun)
Play: Over (46.5 -110)
Line Source: 5Dimes
Posted on: October 24, 2014 @ 10:42:29 PM EDT
4-STAR Atlanta and Detroit Over - This 9:30 a.m EST start is new among NFL games and with players playing a bit sluggishly, we expect unusual things to happen - and happen in the way of points. With Detroit featuring such a great run defense, we suspect the Falcons will abandon the run early and try to keep up as their shoddy defense keeps allowing points.
Atlanta's offense laid a dude in a 29-7 loss to the Ravens. The Falcons are 13-0 OU (12.8 ppg) since November 11, 1990 as a dog with a total of at least 35 after scoring fewer than 10 points on the road (team=Falcons and D and total>=35 and p
oints<10 and p:A and date>=19901111).They also had to give up on the run quickly in that game. They had just 16 carries with Stephen Jackson as their top ball carrier with just eight. Since 2007, teams that did not have a ball carrier with double digit carries last game are 182-140-1 OU (max
:rushes<10 and season>=2007).That loss was the fourth straight double digit loss the Falcons have suffered. The Lions are 6-0 OU (17.92 ppg) since Sep 22, 1991 as a road favorite when their opponent is off two 7+ losses (team=Lions and AF and op:margin<=-7 and opp:margin<=-7 and opp:week + 2==week and date>=19910922).
Detroit meanwhile has won four of their last five games, including their past two away from home. The Lions are 10-0 OU (8.10 ppg) since Nov 21, 1993 on the road when they won their last two road games (team=Lions and A and Sum(W@team and season and site=away,N=2)=2 and date>=19931121).
One issue their offense has faced is protecting Matthew Stafford. Against a Falcons pass rush that is almost non-existent, that shouldn't be a major issue. The Lions are 9-0 OU (9.44 ppg) since Oct 28, 2001 as a favorite when they suffered at least three sacks in each of the last two weeks (team=Lions and F and 3<=po:sacks and 3<=ppo:sacks and date>=20011028).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 55 points
Matchup: Philadelphia at Arizona
Time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Philadelphia (+2.5 -110)
Line Source: Stations
Posted on: October 24, 2014 @ 10:42:29 PM EDT
4-STAR Philadelphia over ARIZONA - Philadelphia and Arizona are at the top of the NFC along with Dallas record wise, but the Cardinals haven't been tested for the past two weeks after their big loss at Denver, picking up close wins against bad teams. When Carson Palmer needs to win a game with his arm, as will be the case here, we're not sure he's up for the task. On the other side, you are getting maybe the best strategist in football with an extra week to prepare. Coming off of their bye last season, they beat the Cardinals and we see that occurring two years in a row.
Philadelphia went into the bye with a ton of momentum after playing one of the best games of any team all season. They defeated the rival Giants, 27-0, on Sunday night football. Teams coming off a primetime win of at least 22 points are 101-77-3 ATS ((p:snf=1 or p:day!=Sunday) and p:margin>=22).
New York was expected to score 23.75 points in that game yet the Eagles defense held them scoreless. Teams that allowed at least 18.75 points less than expected last game are 68-46-3 ATS (p:dpa<=-18.75).
Arizona comes into this game after a pair of wins and covers over Washington and Oakland. The Cardinals are 0-10 ATS (-6.85 ppg) since Oct 04, 1998 as a favorite when they won and covered their last two games (team=Cardinals and F and streak>=2 and ats streak>=2 and date>=19981004).
In both games, Carson Palmer was able to get away with playing conservatively. Against Oakland, he was particularly effective in that capacity, going 22-of-31 for 253 yards. With Drew Stanton at QB, their passing attack had not been nearly as high percentage. The Cardinals are 0-8-1 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since Oct 04, 1998 as a home favorite after a win in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average (team=Cardinals and HF and p:W and Average((100.*p:completions)@team and season and p:season=season) / Average(p
asses@team and season and p:season=season) + 10<=100. * p:completions / passes and date>=19981004).SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Philadelphia by 4
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Green Bay at New Orleans
Time: 8:30 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: New Orleans (-1 -110)
Line Source: Sportsbook.ag
Posted on: October 24, 2014 @ 10:42:29 PM EDT
4.5-STAR NEW ORLEANS over Green Bay - At 2-4, people are writing off the Saints. But just last week, they dominated one of the best teams in the NFC on the road for 57 minutes. A team that the Packers couldn't compete with just a few weeks back. They have a huge advantage in primetime home games in the dome and we think they get this must win game.
While New Orleans always has a home field advantage among the best in football, in primetime the advantage is even bigger. The Saints are 10-0-1 ATS (15.8 ppg) since January 2010 at home in Sunday night or non-Sunday games (team=Saints and (snf=1 or day!=Sunday) and H and date>=20100101).
Even at 2-4 this season the Saints are 2-0 at home. The Saints are 12-0-1 ATS (14.54 ppg) since Oct 23, 2011 as a home favorite when they won their last two home games (team=Saints and HF and Sum(0=20111023).
Last week they outplayed Detroit yet came up short down the stretch in a 24-23 loss. The Saints are 13-0 ATS (14.3 ppg) as a favorite after a loss as a dog (team=Saints and p:LD and F and date>=20071101). Also, the Saints are 7-0-1 ATS (9.38 ppg) since Dec 28, 2003 when they lost 1-3 points last week after a non-divisional opponent (team=Saints and -3<=p:margin<0 and NDIV and date>=20031228).
Even in the loss they outgained the Lions by 64 yards. The Saints are 11-0 ATS (19.2 ppg) since Sep 28, 2008 as a favorite when they are not winless on the year, after a loss in which they outgained their opponent (team=Saints and F and p:L and p:TY>po:TY and wins>0 and date>=20080928)
That was the case despite fewer than 28 minutes of possession in the game. The Saints are 13-0 ATS (13.9 ppg) since November 2004 the week after a loss on the road in which they had at least two fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average (team=Saints and p:AL and p:TOP - tA(p:TOP) <= -120 and n:week-1=week and date>=20041101).
Green Bay meanwhile won 38-17 over Carolina last game. They were up 21-0 after one quarter of the blowout win. Teams that were up at least 20 points after one quarter last game are 17-34-1 ATS (p:M1>=20).
At halftime, it was 28-3 Packers. The Packers are 0-12-1 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick when they were up at the half and won by more than a TD last week (team=Packers and -3<=line<=3 and p:margin>7 and p:M2>0 and NB and season>=2006).
However they are going inside on the turf here, where they tend not to play quite as strong. The Packers are 0-6 ATS (-8.83 ppg) since Sep 24, 2012 within 3 of pick on artificial turf (team=Packers and (-3<=t:line<=3) and surface=artificial and date>=20120924).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NEW ORLEANS 34, Green Bay 24
Winning Angle Baseball
SUNDAY
Play Kansas City +150 over San Francisco (Top Play)
8:00 PM EST
James Shields has won 16 of the last 20 games when playing on a Sunday and he has won 33 of the last 47 games when the total posted is 7 runs or less. James Shields has won 21 of the last 32 games when pitching as an underdog of +150 or higher and he has won 39 of the last 54 road games.
SUNDAY
Play Kansas City +150 over San Francisco (Top Play)
8:00 PM EST
James Shields has won 16 of the last 20 games when playing on a Sunday and he has won 33 of the last 47 games when the total posted is 7 runs or less. James Shields has won 21 of the last 32 games when pitching as an underdog of +150 or higher and he has won 39 of the last 54 road games.
