Topshelfpicks
Raiderman - Royals
Last night, the Giants bounced back and tied the series with an 11-4 win over the Royals. The most impressive part of this win was the way the Giants came back from a 4-1 deficit to get it done. Today, Madison Bumgarner goes for the Giants and he has easily been the most dominant pitcher this post season. The Royals counter with their ace, James Shields, who has been anything but "Big Game James" this post season. With momentum having swung to SF, and with a pitching mismatch, this is an easy call to make on San Francisco...
NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! (As Lee Corso likes to say)
Let's look a little deeper here. Yes, Bumgarner has had a very good season (18-10, 2.98 ERA) and if the Giants win the Series, he is easily the MVP (he might still be the MVP even if the Giants lose). He has been dominating this post season. But I like look at the home/road split here. Bumgarner at home this season was 7-6 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Overall, average at best at home. During the post season, he is 0-1, with a 3.00 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. Tonight he goes against James Shields who was lit up in Game 1. Do I think Shields bounces back? Yes, I do. By his standards, Game 1 was a complete embarrassment and I do expect a bounce back. The last two times that Shields gave up 5 runs or more in a start (which goes back to the first part of July), he bounced back to pitch a combined 14 innings, surrendering just 8 hits and 1 run in those 14 innings. His home road split this season is very favorable for tonight - he is 10-2 on the road this season with a 2.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
I do expect a low scoring game and so do the sportsbooks. The total is at 6. I do think that 3 runs will win this game, but I will pass on this total. I see KC returning to form tonight, getting a solid 6 innings (at least) from Shields, then letting the bullpen take over. KC scratches out a tough win tonight, then goes back to KC to finish out this series.