StatFox Super Situations
NFL | BUFFALO at NY JETS
Play Over - Home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points excellent punt coverage team, allow less than 7.5 yards per return
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
NFL | INDIANAPOLIS at PITTSBURGH
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) with a terrible defense - allowing 5.7 or more yards/play, after outgaining opp by 200 or more total yards in their previous game
26-12 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
NFL | ST LOUIS at KANSAS CITY
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (ST LOUIS) with a good offense - averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
NFL | HOUSTON at TENNESSEE
Play Over - Home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points excellent punt coverage team, allow less than 7.5 yards per return 46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
NFL | MIAMI at JACKSONVILLE
Play Over - Home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points excellent punt coverage team, allow less than 7.5 yards per return
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
NFL | DETROIT at ATLANTA
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (ATLANTA) with a good offense - averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
NFL | BUFFALO at NY JETS
Play Over - Home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points excellent punt coverage team, allow less than 7.5 yards per return
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
NFL | INDIANAPOLIS at PITTSBURGH
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) with a terrible defense - allowing 5.7 or more yards/play, after outgaining opp by 200 or more total yards in their previous game
26-12 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
NFL | ST LOUIS at KANSAS CITY
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (ST LOUIS) with a good offense - averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
NFL | HOUSTON at TENNESSEE
Play Over - Home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points excellent punt coverage team, allow less than 7.5 yards per return 46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
NFL | MIAMI at JACKSONVILLE
Play Over - Home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points excellent punt coverage team, allow less than 7.5 yards per return
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
NFL | DETROIT at ATLANTA
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (ATLANTA) with a good offense - averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
SPORTSWAGERS
NFL
Detroit -3½ vs Atlanta
Detroit -3½ -110 over Atlanta
(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
9:30 AM EST. The 2-5 Falcons will try to end a four-game losing streak and they’ll attempt to do that across the pond at Wembley Stadium in London. Away from Atlanta, the Dirty Birds have lost six straight. Since they defeated the Buccaneers 56-14, Atlanta has lost every game by double digits and even allowed the offensive-less Vikings to hang a 41 on them. Aside from being the worst-coached team in the NFL, Atlanta will now play this game with its third starting center in undrafted rookie James Stone. The Falcons have already suffered season-ending injuries to four offensive linemen: tackles Sam Baker (knee) and Lamar Holmes (foot), Hawley and reserve Mike Johnson. Defensively, Atlanta has no pass rush whatsoever, which does not bode well here against Detroit. When you give quality QB’s time in this league they will rip you apart and that’s precisely what we expect to see from Matthew Stafford.
The Lions have been harassing quarterbacks all season and have the best defensive QBR in the NFL. Matt Ryan has been sacked on over 5% of his attempts this year, which is a disturbing number under any circumstance and now he’s facing a top-ranked unit with a makeshift line and third string center trying to protect him. Atlanta suffered a lot of injuries last year and went on to post an awful 4-12 record. This year the injuries are even worse and so are margins in which they are getting buried. Losing has taken a toll on this entire staff and it’s not about to change. Nothing about these squads is remotely comparable right now and it will be evident within minutes of kickoff that the Falcons are up against it once again. Unless Atlanta gets every bounce go their way, and that still might not be enough, they are going down by double-digits again. If Teddy Bridgewater went off for over 300 yards and 41 points against this Falcons’ defense, Stafford might go off for 600 yards and 80 points.
St. Louis @ KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY -7 -110 over St. Louis
(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
The Chiefs came off their bye last week and went into San Diego and won outright as a four-point pooch. Kansas City is gaining steam with four strong performances in a row, winning three of them and losing by just five in San Fran. The Chiefs have not played at home since Week 4 when they whacked the Patriots, 41-14. Since then, they’ve played twice on the road with a bye in between. Aside from the unexplainable opening loss to the Titans, the defense has been quietly very good at holding opponents down. Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles are a solid RB/QB combination and overall these Chiefs are pretty sound. They have the Jets on deck so this is not a look ahead game. It’s a chance for the Chiefs to solidify their playoff chances.
We’re not going to dissect the Rams because this fade has nothing to do with X’s and O’s and everything to do with the situation. St. Louis is in a horrible scheduling spot here and because of that they just might get whacked. The Rams are coming off games against San Francisco in prime time and Seattle last week. They defeated the Super Bowl Champs in a hugely emotional game and to make matters worse they have the 49ers up again next week in San Francisco. This road game against an AFC team is now sandwiched between San Fran, Seattle and San Fran again. After beating Seattle last week, taking seven points may look appealing but St. Louis isn’t braced for a big game here. Instead, they are in a near impossible spot that often leads to a huge defeat.
Minnesota @ TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY -3 +106 over Minnesota
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.12)
The Vikings finished with a 5-10-1 record last year, but had they not blown leads in the final minute of five games, they would have finished 10-6. They have a new coaching staff now and a new quarterback, but the outlook stays the same. They allowed journeyman Kyle Orton to throw for 105 yards on an 80-yard drive, including a pair of key passes to Sammy Watkins – who scored the game-winning touchdown with one second left on the clock. The more things change in Minnesota, the more they stay the same and our original prognostication on Teddy Bridgewater was way off. Dude is not NFL ready; not even close. Bridgewater holds the ball far too long, a common mistake among rookie QB’s and when he does get rid of it he misses his targets by five yards. The Vikes rank #29 in overall offense and are last in passing offense.
Take away the first quarter and the Bucs are actually a decent club. They have been outscored in the first quarter by a remarkable count of 72-17 but it’s pretty difficult to envision the pitiful Vikings putting up a crooked number in the first. Furthermore, the Bucs are coming off another embarrassing performance two weeks in Baltimore, where they were walloped 48-17. The last time they were walloped in Atlanta (56-14), Tampa Bay responded with a win in Pittsburgh the next time out as an 8-point underdog. Now they’ve had two weeks to prepare and that’s a long time to prepare with that latest loss hanging over their heads. Mike Glennon is getting better. He's not only thrown for two scores in each of the last three games, but twice he topped 300 yards in the process while only throwing one interception per week. More impressive still - he threw for 302 yards in a road game in Pittsburgh and later 314 yards at home against the Ravens defense. Minnesota is playing its third road game in four weeks here and that’s difficult for even the best of teams. Now we’re getting the better all-around team at home, coming off a bye and a horrible loss. Getting them at this price is a great bargain.
Baltimore @ CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI +104 over Baltimore
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)
Baltimore is 5-2. They have won two in a row and four of its past five games. The Ravens last three wins were by scores of 38-10, 48-17 and 29-7. That’s a combined 115 to 34 and blowout wins often cause an overreaction. String three blowout wins together and that overreaction is even bigger. In other words, Baltimore’s stock is soaring through the roof, which provides us with this sell-high opportunity. It should be noted, however, that Baltimore’s three blowout wins occurred against Carolina, Tampa Bay and Atlanta.
When the Bengals got off to a 3-0 start, they were making their statement that the road to the Super Bowl was going through Cincinnati. The city even had the parade mapped out. That seems like such a long time ago. In the last three weeks, the Bengals allowed New England to score nine times in a 43-17 blowout, missed a chip-shot field goal to tie Carolina and got shut out by Indianapolis. In other words, Cincinnati’s stock has hit rock bottom in much the same way New England’s did after the Patriots were whacked in Kansas City. If anyone had suggested three weeks ago that Baltimore would be favored in Cincinnati in Week 8, they would have been carted off to an asylum. Yeah, things do change in this league from week to week but this line is a big overreaction to Baltimore’s three blowout wins and Cincinnati’s three ugly losses. Let us now point out that Cincinnati has not lost at Paul Brown Stadium since December of 2012. That’s a streak of 11-0-1 since then and now the Bengals are a dog at home to a Baltimore team that has averaged 14 points a game in Cincinnati since 2009 and that has lost four of the past five here. This is a classic buy-low/sell-high situation and we’re on it.
San Diego @ DENVER
San Diego +9½ -103 over DENVER
(Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)
This line just keeps moving in Denver’s direction. Line opened at 7½, was at 8½ most of yesterday and is now up to 9½. It’s not often you get offered 9½ points with a quality team but that’s the case here and we’ll gladly bite because that is where the value lies. Just when the Chargers seem like they are an elite team, they struggle to beat the Raiders and then lose to the Chiefs in San Diego. Now the Chargers appear to be just another average team in a league full of them because of their last two results. That works to our advantage because we now get this quality team at an inflated price.
By contrast, Denver’s stock is extremely high after they buried the 49ers in prime time last week. Denver now plays in back-to-back prime time games and last week’s was especially emotional after Peyton Manning broke Brett Favre’s record. The anticipation in Denver was tremendous. It’s also worth noting that it was a Sunday night late game, which gives the Broncos even less time to recover and prepare for this short week. The Broncos are a great team but you are still going to pay a major premium on them here because of the over-reaction to last Sunday’s win and because they are so popular among bettors. Another reason this number is high is because the Chargers have some key defensive players on the rack. However, in San Diego’s win at Denver last year, the Chargers started Richard Marshall and Shareece Wright at cornerback and Thomas Keiser and Reggie Walker at outside linebacker. With San Diego’s top two cornerbacks in Brandon Flowers (concussion) and Jason Verrett (shoulder) nursing injuries, along with rookie pass-rusher Jeremiah Attaochu (hamstring), the Chargers' projected starting cornerbacks are Wright and Marshall. And the team’s projected starting outside linebackers are Jarret Johnson and Walker. The bottom line is Pagano trusts his backup players to know and understand his complex scheme. Those fill-in guys proved they can execute his game when they did so last year against Manning. Furthermore, Philip Rivers is 6-2 with wins in four of his last five starts at Sports Authority Field during the regular season. The Chargers won 27-20 in Denver last year. The Broncos won 28-20 in San Diego. The Broncos would later win in the divisional round when they beat the Chargers 24-17. A well-coached, balanced team with a strong record and an attack that knows how to execute its way down the field is being offered substantial (inflated) weight here in a short week. That doesn’t happen often and it instantly makes us buyers.
NFL
Detroit -3½ vs Atlanta
Detroit -3½ -110 over Atlanta
(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
9:30 AM EST. The 2-5 Falcons will try to end a four-game losing streak and they’ll attempt to do that across the pond at Wembley Stadium in London. Away from Atlanta, the Dirty Birds have lost six straight. Since they defeated the Buccaneers 56-14, Atlanta has lost every game by double digits and even allowed the offensive-less Vikings to hang a 41 on them. Aside from being the worst-coached team in the NFL, Atlanta will now play this game with its third starting center in undrafted rookie James Stone. The Falcons have already suffered season-ending injuries to four offensive linemen: tackles Sam Baker (knee) and Lamar Holmes (foot), Hawley and reserve Mike Johnson. Defensively, Atlanta has no pass rush whatsoever, which does not bode well here against Detroit. When you give quality QB’s time in this league they will rip you apart and that’s precisely what we expect to see from Matthew Stafford.
The Lions have been harassing quarterbacks all season and have the best defensive QBR in the NFL. Matt Ryan has been sacked on over 5% of his attempts this year, which is a disturbing number under any circumstance and now he’s facing a top-ranked unit with a makeshift line and third string center trying to protect him. Atlanta suffered a lot of injuries last year and went on to post an awful 4-12 record. This year the injuries are even worse and so are margins in which they are getting buried. Losing has taken a toll on this entire staff and it’s not about to change. Nothing about these squads is remotely comparable right now and it will be evident within minutes of kickoff that the Falcons are up against it once again. Unless Atlanta gets every bounce go their way, and that still might not be enough, they are going down by double-digits again. If Teddy Bridgewater went off for over 300 yards and 41 points against this Falcons’ defense, Stafford might go off for 600 yards and 80 points.
St. Louis @ KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY -7 -110 over St. Louis
(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
The Chiefs came off their bye last week and went into San Diego and won outright as a four-point pooch. Kansas City is gaining steam with four strong performances in a row, winning three of them and losing by just five in San Fran. The Chiefs have not played at home since Week 4 when they whacked the Patriots, 41-14. Since then, they’ve played twice on the road with a bye in between. Aside from the unexplainable opening loss to the Titans, the defense has been quietly very good at holding opponents down. Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles are a solid RB/QB combination and overall these Chiefs are pretty sound. They have the Jets on deck so this is not a look ahead game. It’s a chance for the Chiefs to solidify their playoff chances.
We’re not going to dissect the Rams because this fade has nothing to do with X’s and O’s and everything to do with the situation. St. Louis is in a horrible scheduling spot here and because of that they just might get whacked. The Rams are coming off games against San Francisco in prime time and Seattle last week. They defeated the Super Bowl Champs in a hugely emotional game and to make matters worse they have the 49ers up again next week in San Francisco. This road game against an AFC team is now sandwiched between San Fran, Seattle and San Fran again. After beating Seattle last week, taking seven points may look appealing but St. Louis isn’t braced for a big game here. Instead, they are in a near impossible spot that often leads to a huge defeat.
Minnesota @ TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY -3 +106 over Minnesota
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.12)
The Vikings finished with a 5-10-1 record last year, but had they not blown leads in the final minute of five games, they would have finished 10-6. They have a new coaching staff now and a new quarterback, but the outlook stays the same. They allowed journeyman Kyle Orton to throw for 105 yards on an 80-yard drive, including a pair of key passes to Sammy Watkins – who scored the game-winning touchdown with one second left on the clock. The more things change in Minnesota, the more they stay the same and our original prognostication on Teddy Bridgewater was way off. Dude is not NFL ready; not even close. Bridgewater holds the ball far too long, a common mistake among rookie QB’s and when he does get rid of it he misses his targets by five yards. The Vikes rank #29 in overall offense and are last in passing offense.
Take away the first quarter and the Bucs are actually a decent club. They have been outscored in the first quarter by a remarkable count of 72-17 but it’s pretty difficult to envision the pitiful Vikings putting up a crooked number in the first. Furthermore, the Bucs are coming off another embarrassing performance two weeks in Baltimore, where they were walloped 48-17. The last time they were walloped in Atlanta (56-14), Tampa Bay responded with a win in Pittsburgh the next time out as an 8-point underdog. Now they’ve had two weeks to prepare and that’s a long time to prepare with that latest loss hanging over their heads. Mike Glennon is getting better. He's not only thrown for two scores in each of the last three games, but twice he topped 300 yards in the process while only throwing one interception per week. More impressive still - he threw for 302 yards in a road game in Pittsburgh and later 314 yards at home against the Ravens defense. Minnesota is playing its third road game in four weeks here and that’s difficult for even the best of teams. Now we’re getting the better all-around team at home, coming off a bye and a horrible loss. Getting them at this price is a great bargain.
Baltimore @ CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI +104 over Baltimore
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)
Baltimore is 5-2. They have won two in a row and four of its past five games. The Ravens last three wins were by scores of 38-10, 48-17 and 29-7. That’s a combined 115 to 34 and blowout wins often cause an overreaction. String three blowout wins together and that overreaction is even bigger. In other words, Baltimore’s stock is soaring through the roof, which provides us with this sell-high opportunity. It should be noted, however, that Baltimore’s three blowout wins occurred against Carolina, Tampa Bay and Atlanta.
When the Bengals got off to a 3-0 start, they were making their statement that the road to the Super Bowl was going through Cincinnati. The city even had the parade mapped out. That seems like such a long time ago. In the last three weeks, the Bengals allowed New England to score nine times in a 43-17 blowout, missed a chip-shot field goal to tie Carolina and got shut out by Indianapolis. In other words, Cincinnati’s stock has hit rock bottom in much the same way New England’s did after the Patriots were whacked in Kansas City. If anyone had suggested three weeks ago that Baltimore would be favored in Cincinnati in Week 8, they would have been carted off to an asylum. Yeah, things do change in this league from week to week but this line is a big overreaction to Baltimore’s three blowout wins and Cincinnati’s three ugly losses. Let us now point out that Cincinnati has not lost at Paul Brown Stadium since December of 2012. That’s a streak of 11-0-1 since then and now the Bengals are a dog at home to a Baltimore team that has averaged 14 points a game in Cincinnati since 2009 and that has lost four of the past five here. This is a classic buy-low/sell-high situation and we’re on it.
San Diego @ DENVER
San Diego +9½ -103 over DENVER
(Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)
This line just keeps moving in Denver’s direction. Line opened at 7½, was at 8½ most of yesterday and is now up to 9½. It’s not often you get offered 9½ points with a quality team but that’s the case here and we’ll gladly bite because that is where the value lies. Just when the Chargers seem like they are an elite team, they struggle to beat the Raiders and then lose to the Chiefs in San Diego. Now the Chargers appear to be just another average team in a league full of them because of their last two results. That works to our advantage because we now get this quality team at an inflated price.
By contrast, Denver’s stock is extremely high after they buried the 49ers in prime time last week. Denver now plays in back-to-back prime time games and last week’s was especially emotional after Peyton Manning broke Brett Favre’s record. The anticipation in Denver was tremendous. It’s also worth noting that it was a Sunday night late game, which gives the Broncos even less time to recover and prepare for this short week. The Broncos are a great team but you are still going to pay a major premium on them here because of the over-reaction to last Sunday’s win and because they are so popular among bettors. Another reason this number is high is because the Chargers have some key defensive players on the rack. However, in San Diego’s win at Denver last year, the Chargers started Richard Marshall and Shareece Wright at cornerback and Thomas Keiser and Reggie Walker at outside linebacker. With San Diego’s top two cornerbacks in Brandon Flowers (concussion) and Jason Verrett (shoulder) nursing injuries, along with rookie pass-rusher Jeremiah Attaochu (hamstring), the Chargers' projected starting cornerbacks are Wright and Marshall. And the team’s projected starting outside linebackers are Jarret Johnson and Walker. The bottom line is Pagano trusts his backup players to know and understand his complex scheme. Those fill-in guys proved they can execute his game when they did so last year against Manning. Furthermore, Philip Rivers is 6-2 with wins in four of his last five starts at Sports Authority Field during the regular season. The Chargers won 27-20 in Denver last year. The Broncos won 28-20 in San Diego. The Broncos would later win in the divisional round when they beat the Chargers 24-17. A well-coached, balanced team with a strong record and an attack that knows how to execute its way down the field is being offered substantial (inflated) weight here in a short week. That doesn’t happen often and it instantly makes us buyers.
