Sun, 10/19/08 - 1:00 PMKing Creole | NFL Total
double-dime bet406 KAN / 405 TEN Over 35.0 BetUS
Analysis: 1:00pm ET / TENNESSEE TITANS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
1:00pm ET / SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ NY GIANTS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
1:00pm ET / PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
1:00pm ET / New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
4:15pm ET / New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
BEST BET write-ups:
CHIEFS / TITANS: In Poker terms, I would classify this game as 7-card stud ?HIGH / LOW?. You have an undefeated team (HIGH) coming in with the 5-0 Titans. And a 1-4 home team (LOW) in the Chiefs. This game also has one of the lowest OU lines of the week (around 35 points). With BOTH teams coming in with a week of rest, we?ll be slamming the OVER. Reason #1 is BECAUSE of that ?double-rest? angle. In the last 7 years, NFL games have gone 12-4 O/U when BOTH teams come in off thier BYE week. Home DOGS have gone 5-1 O/U... and a PERFECT 4-0 O/U in the last 3 seasons. That week of rest came at the right time for the Chiefs. In their last game, they lost to the Carolina Panthers by a score of 34-0. The shutout loss has them active this week in a very hot current System: NFL teams are a PERFECT 7-0-1 O/U in the last 4 years off a SHUTOUT in which they lost by a score of 28-0 or higher. On the flip side, we have the 5-0 Titans. And if it?s game six, the OVER is the call for these UNDEFEATEDS. Since 2000, GAME SIX teams with a perfect 5-0 SU record are 11-2 O/U... and a PERFECT 10-0 O/U vs any non-div opp. Not only are they 5-0 SU, but they?ve reeled off 5 straight ATS wins as well to start the season. In the last 20 years, OCTOBER non-div road favs who are off 5 SUATS wins in a row are a PERFECT 5-0 O/U. Individual team trends seal the deal: The TITANS are 12-3 O/U as favs w/ rest, 5-0 O/U as non-div RF?s 4 > pts and 7-1 O/U bef Monday. CHIEFS are 4-0 O/U at home w/ rest, 5-1 O/U off a SU L 21 > pts, and 6-0 O/U in Gm 6.
GIANTS / 49ERS: The Giants return home off their shocking Monday night road favorite loss to the Brownies. Teams that lost their first game of the season on the road usually come back with high-scoring results. 9-1 O/U for GAME SIX teams who lost their FIRST game of the year on the road (GIANTS). NFC teams on a short week of practice off a Monday non-conf road game have been solid OVER plays in the last few years. 4-0 O/U in the last 4 years for all NFC teams off a Monday night game against an AFC opponent. Meanwhile, we have the Niners making the l-o-n-g trek east from their Bay area home... and you know what THAT means. TIME ZONE System. This System has continued to generate a profit this year, so let?s do it again: NFL Western time zone teams have gone 21-7 O/U in the last 4 years in Game 7 or less on the road versus an Eastern time zone team. The absolute BEST situations for these teams are 20-5 O/U for all UNDERDOGS... and 9-1 O/U for big dogs of > 7 points (like the NINERS). After winning 2 of their first 3 games, the wheels have come off for San Francisco. They?ve dropped 3 games in a row (SU and ATS) by 9 or more points. That?s actually a good sign for OVER players. 9-1 O/U since 200 for OCTOBER road teams who are playing off 3+ SU and ATS losses in a row. Most applicable team trends also indicate we?re on the right side. The NINERS are 10-1 O/U vs NFC East, 5-1 O/U vs an opp off Monday, and 5-1 O/U off BB HG. The GIANTS are 4-1 O/U off a Monday game and 4-0 O/U as non-div HF?s of 5 > pts.
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