Keslo 200 unit plays
NFL FOOTBALL<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o
></o>
<o> </o>
NFL Game Of The Year<o></o>
200 Units<o></o>
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:State w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:State> Titans (-9) over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">KANSAS CITY</st1lace></st1:City> CHIEFS<o></o>
Prediction: <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tennessee</st1lace></st1:State> by 35<o></o>
Starting Time: 1:00<o></o>
I said on Thursday I will get this play for all of u !!!!
So who else been hot capper for the NFL ???
thinking of a big parlay with the hot cappersarty:
Paid and Confirmed !!!!d1g1t
ope:arty:
GREAT guess!!!!
NFL FOOTBALL<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
> </o>NFL Game Of The Year<o
></o>200 Units<o
></o><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:State w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:State> Titans (-9) over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">KANSAS CITY</st1lace></st1:City> CHIEFS<o></o>Prediction: <st1:State w:st="on"><st1
lace w:st="on">Tennessee</st1lace></st1:State> by 35<o></o>Starting Time: 1:00<o
></o>I said on Thursday I will get this play for all of u !!!!
So who else been hot capper for the NFL ???
thinking of a big parlay with the hot cappers
arty:Paid and Confirmed !!!!d1g1t
ope:arty:GREAT guess!!!!
** nfl newsletters **
hot
cajun sports gator report gow (5-2)...
Cajun sports gator report inside info gow (4-1)...
Logical approach featured sel (10-5)...kansas city...buffalo...indianapolis
logical approach sel of week (3-1)...carolina
marty otto (sports memo) (3-0)...
Matty baiungo (the maxx) (4-2)...kansas city
northcoast power sweep 4* (3-1-2)...
Sports reporter best bet (10-5-1)...new orleans…denver
winning points best bet (10-4-1)...indianapolis…tennessee
vegas experts the edge 3* (5-1)...tennessee...detroit...cleveland
cold
erik scheponik (the maxx) (1-4)...no/car over
kevin o'neill (the maxx) (2-7)...
Logical approach totals (3-11)...bal/mia under...min/chi under...det/hou over...nyj/oak under...cle/was under...ind/gb over
logical approach moneyline (4-7-1)...kansas city...minnesota...detroit...new england
sports reporter recommended (2-6-1)...kansas city…indianapolis
winning points preferred (2-8)...
The rest
brent crow (sports memo) (0-0)...
Cajun sports gator report nfc gow (2-0)...
Cajun sports gator report afc gow (1-2)...
Confidential kick off 10* (3-3)...tennessee
confidential kick off 11* (0-0)
dave fobare (the maxx) (2-3)...denver
donnie black (sports memo) (1-0)...
Ed cash (sports memo) (0-0)...
Erin rynning (sports memo) (2-1)...
Fairway jay (sports memo) (2-1)...washington
jared klein (sports memo) (1-1)...
Marc lawrence playbook 4* (3-5)...baltimore
marc lawrence playbook 5* (4-5)...new england
nelly's sportsline 4* (2-1-1)...green bay
nelly's sportsline 5* (2-1)...carolina
northcoast power plays 4* (4-4-1)...tennessee...tampa bay
pointwise 1* (0-0)...
Pointwise 2* (2-2)...dallas
rob veno (sports memo) (1-0)...
Sports insight marketwatch (10-7-1)...buffalo...dallas...carolina
sports reporter super best bet (1-0)...
Statfox platinum sheet (12-17-1)...tennessee…san diego…baltimore…carolina…washington
teddy covers (sports memo) (1-1)...
The gold sheet (9-9)...houston...indianapolis...chi/min over
the gold sheet extra (2-3-1)...tampa bay
the red sheet 89* (1-0)...
The red sheet 90* (0-0)...
Tim trushel (sports memo) (2-0)...
hot
cajun sports gator report gow (5-2)...
Cajun sports gator report inside info gow (4-1)...
Logical approach featured sel (10-5)...kansas city...buffalo...indianapolis
logical approach sel of week (3-1)...carolina
marty otto (sports memo) (3-0)...
Matty baiungo (the maxx) (4-2)...kansas city
northcoast power sweep 4* (3-1-2)...
Sports reporter best bet (10-5-1)...new orleans…denver
winning points best bet (10-4-1)...indianapolis…tennessee
vegas experts the edge 3* (5-1)...tennessee...detroit...cleveland
cold
erik scheponik (the maxx) (1-4)...no/car over
kevin o'neill (the maxx) (2-7)...
Logical approach totals (3-11)...bal/mia under...min/chi under...det/hou over...nyj/oak under...cle/was under...ind/gb over
logical approach moneyline (4-7-1)...kansas city...minnesota...detroit...new england
sports reporter recommended (2-6-1)...kansas city…indianapolis
winning points preferred (2-8)...
The rest
brent crow (sports memo) (0-0)...
Cajun sports gator report nfc gow (2-0)...
Cajun sports gator report afc gow (1-2)...
Confidential kick off 10* (3-3)...tennessee
confidential kick off 11* (0-0)
dave fobare (the maxx) (2-3)...denver
donnie black (sports memo) (1-0)...
Ed cash (sports memo) (0-0)...
Erin rynning (sports memo) (2-1)...
Fairway jay (sports memo) (2-1)...washington
jared klein (sports memo) (1-1)...
Marc lawrence playbook 4* (3-5)...baltimore
marc lawrence playbook 5* (4-5)...new england
nelly's sportsline 4* (2-1-1)...green bay
nelly's sportsline 5* (2-1)...carolina
northcoast power plays 4* (4-4-1)...tennessee...tampa bay
pointwise 1* (0-0)...
Pointwise 2* (2-2)...dallas
rob veno (sports memo) (1-0)...
Sports insight marketwatch (10-7-1)...buffalo...dallas...carolina
sports reporter super best bet (1-0)...
Statfox platinum sheet (12-17-1)...tennessee…san diego…baltimore…carolina…washington
teddy covers (sports memo) (1-1)...
The gold sheet (9-9)...houston...indianapolis...chi/min over
the gold sheet extra (2-3-1)...tampa bay
the red sheet 89* (1-0)...
The red sheet 90* (0-0)...
Tim trushel (sports memo) (2-0)...
Mark Lawrence
4* (3-5)
5* (4-5)
5* Best Bet New England over Denver by 14
Don’t think for a moment that last Sunday night’s performance is
indicative of the Patriots’ talents. There were in a buzz saw situation
with the Chargers off an embarrassing loss and seeking playoff
revenge. To further complicate matters they were landlocked on the
West Coast for consecutive games. The shoe is on the other foot in
this game – sort of. The Broncos take to the Monday night road off
back-to-back home games knowing they are 3-14 ATS on Mondays
against an opponent off a loss, including 0-5 when Denver is also off
a loss. The kicker, though, are the numbers Bill Belichick brings to
the table. For openers, he is 12-1-1 ATS in his head coaching career
when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU favorite loss,
including 6-0 when his team is off a loss. In addition, the Pats are 19-6
ATS under Belichick when playing off one-loss exact, including 10-0
if they allowed more than 28 points in that loss. Now that just about
sizes things up,wouldn't you say?
4* BEST BET Baltimore over Miami by 10
The Miami Wildcats, err Dolphins, return to South Beach off last week’s
gut-wrenching loss at Houston, a game in which they allowed the
Texans to march down the fi eld during the fi nal minute of play to turn
a win into a crushing loss on Houston’s fi nal possession. When last we
saw them at home they benefi ted from an aforementioned WAKE UP
CALL in a 17-10 win over the Chargers. They’ll dress up today as favorites
for the fi rst time in the Tony Sparano era, a role in which they’ve failed
miserably the past two years (0-4 SU and ATS). It fi ts nicely into a scenario
that fi nds home favorites just 1-9 ATS since 1990 who were road dogs
in their previous game and SU home dog winners as +6 or more two
games ago. Meanwhile, the Ravens bring their top-ranked defense into
the fray off three straight losses knowing they are 13-4 ATS in games
off 3 L’s and back-to-back spread losses, including 9-1 against a foe off a
spread win. Welcome to the world of NFL chalk, Tony
3* BEST BET Detroit over Houston by 6
The Texans did everything they could to lose last week’s game but in the
end they couldn’t. They dominated the Dolphins from start to fi nish yet
continually kept the Fish in the game with turnovers and penalties…
all signs of a team certainly struggling to gain an identity. On the other
side of the fi eld the Lions put together their most complete effort of
the season, albeit a 5th consecutive loss. The bottom line here is the
Texans are off a one-point maiden victory and fi nd themselves laying
more than a touchdown to a hungry Lion. Given Houston’s 4-9 ATS
mark in its expansion career as a favorite of 2 or more points, and the
fact that 1-4 teams off their fi rst win of the season are a wallet burning
0-7 ATS in Game Six against a foe off back-to-back losses, there is only
one thing to do here… roar
4* (3-5)
5* (4-5)
5* Best Bet New England over Denver by 14
Don’t think for a moment that last Sunday night’s performance is
indicative of the Patriots’ talents. There were in a buzz saw situation
with the Chargers off an embarrassing loss and seeking playoff
revenge. To further complicate matters they were landlocked on the
West Coast for consecutive games. The shoe is on the other foot in
this game – sort of. The Broncos take to the Monday night road off
back-to-back home games knowing they are 3-14 ATS on Mondays
against an opponent off a loss, including 0-5 when Denver is also off
a loss. The kicker, though, are the numbers Bill Belichick brings to
the table. For openers, he is 12-1-1 ATS in his head coaching career
when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU favorite loss,
including 6-0 when his team is off a loss. In addition, the Pats are 19-6
ATS under Belichick when playing off one-loss exact, including 10-0
if they allowed more than 28 points in that loss. Now that just about
sizes things up,wouldn't you say?
4* BEST BET Baltimore over Miami by 10
The Miami Wildcats, err Dolphins, return to South Beach off last week’s
gut-wrenching loss at Houston, a game in which they allowed the
Texans to march down the fi eld during the fi nal minute of play to turn
a win into a crushing loss on Houston’s fi nal possession. When last we
saw them at home they benefi ted from an aforementioned WAKE UP
CALL in a 17-10 win over the Chargers. They’ll dress up today as favorites
for the fi rst time in the Tony Sparano era, a role in which they’ve failed
miserably the past two years (0-4 SU and ATS). It fi ts nicely into a scenario
that fi nds home favorites just 1-9 ATS since 1990 who were road dogs
in their previous game and SU home dog winners as +6 or more two
games ago. Meanwhile, the Ravens bring their top-ranked defense into
the fray off three straight losses knowing they are 13-4 ATS in games
off 3 L’s and back-to-back spread losses, including 9-1 against a foe off a
spread win. Welcome to the world of NFL chalk, Tony
3* BEST BET Detroit over Houston by 6
The Texans did everything they could to lose last week’s game but in the
end they couldn’t. They dominated the Dolphins from start to fi nish yet
continually kept the Fish in the game with turnovers and penalties…
all signs of a team certainly struggling to gain an identity. On the other
side of the fi eld the Lions put together their most complete effort of
the season, albeit a 5th consecutive loss. The bottom line here is the
Texans are off a one-point maiden victory and fi nd themselves laying
more than a touchdown to a hungry Lion. Given Houston’s 4-9 ATS
mark in its expansion career as a favorite of 2 or more points, and the
fact that 1-4 teams off their fi rst win of the season are a wallet burning
0-7 ATS in Game Six against a foe off back-to-back losses, there is only
one thing to do here… roar
Powersweep (Northcoast/Phil Steele)
NFL
4*- Tenn
3*- Indy
2*- Oak
2*- TB
Totals
The 3*Totals are 13-5 72%
3* Pitt/Cincy Under
3* Boys/rams Over
2* 49/NYG Over
2* Balt/Mia Under
2* NWO/Car Under
System: undefeated Fav off of a bye. '02-'08- 15-1.
Tenn
Angles
(4)Tenn
(3) INDIANAPOLIS
(3) BUFFALO
Pro Stat
Dallas
KEY SELECTIONS
4* Tennessee over KANSAS CITY - Both teams are off their bye week & KC will go back to QB Croyle who
was KO’d in the 3Q vs NE here. LY TEN beat KC 28-17 as a 3 pt AF on a cold & windy day with the stadium
half empty. KC was able to pressure Young for most of the game & they had a 17-13 lead late in the 3Q. TEN
scored 13 unanswered pts & while they only had a 27 yd edge they were +3 in TO’s. Croyle threw for 217 yds
(58%) with a 2-2 ratio. TEN is 8-3 ATS as an AF while KC is 1-6 ATS at home. KC has been outgained in 10
straight games at home (356-307) scoring 13 or less in 5 games. In the L16 games with DT Haynesworth in
the lineup, TEN is allowing 75 ypg rushing (3.6), have tallied 44 sacks (would be 5th LY), a 15-27 ratio & have
allowed 13 or less in 10 games for a 14-2 SU & 12-3-1 ATS mark. While TEN does have a MNF HG vs IND
on deck Fisher has too good of a staff with too much forward momentum vs a rusty QB with an overmatched
OL vs an elite DL. FORECAST: Tennessee 28 KANSAS CITY 7
3* Indianapolis over GREEN BAY - Both teams come in off big wins vs overmatched opposing QB’s. IND is
10-2 ATS away vs the NFC. GB is 2-6 ATS hosting an AFC foe. IND finally showed up LW & got their 1st win in
5 tries at Lucas Oil Stadium. They throttled a beaten up BAL defense without its #2 & #3 CB’s as well as their
starting RT. Manning passed for 271 yds (68%) with a 3-0 ratio as IND had 15-8 FD & 322-111 yd edges thru
the 1st 3Q. IND forced 3 TO’s & five 3 & outs on BAL’s 1st 8 drives. #1 RB Addai left LW with a hamstring inj &
#3 RB Hart was KO’d with a knee inj & their status is unknown. GB held SEA to just 88 yds thru the 1st 3.5Q as
they were forced to start #3 QB Frye as Hasselbeck (hyperextended knee) was forced to miss. GB caught SEA
at the right time as the Seahawks’ struggles masked the slew of inj’s on defense & they still allowed 113 yds
rushing (4.9). They were down to just 3 DT’s LW & lost DT Pickett & are really hoping LY’s 1st RD DC Harrell
who was on the PUP for the 1st 6 Wks can contribute. Despite their defensive issues IND is a deeper team with
a better QB vs another beat up offense & are the play. FORECAST: Indianapolis 28 GREEN BAY 13
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* OAKLAND (+) over NY Jets - This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years with the Jets being 2-0 SU & ATS winning
by an avg 25-7. The Jets are 4-1 ATS on the road. OAK is 2-11 ATS at home. These teams are very closely
ranked the L4W with OAK having the #23 & #17 units vs NYJ #21 & #14 units. OAK came into LW’s game
wanting to open up the offense under interim HC Cable & OC Knapp. They wagered that Russell in his 6th
career start would be able to compete with Brees who is the best QB in the NFL TY. Russell had 35 pass att’s
but only 13 comp for 159 yds with an int & 40.1 QBR. OAK was outFD 23-12 & outgained 441-226. Kiffin was
using the run to keep Russell out of trouble but OAK has been outrushed 126 (4.1) to 85 (3.4) the L3W. The
Jets were a bit sluggish coming out of the bye & let CIN linger in the game longer than they should have. Favre
had a rough game with 2 int’s & a fumble that was returned for a TD. The Jets run game is a concern as they
have only rushed for 66 ypg (3.3) in their L3 weeks & only had a 3.2 ypc vs CIN’s #28 rush defense. This is a
good spot for OAK as they are at home vs a Jets team coming cross country & they need a win with a long
road trip vs BAL on deck. We’ll side with the very Ugly Dog here (21-9 70%) which has earned 5 straight
upset wins. FORECAST: OAKLAND 20 (+) NY Jets 17
2* TAMPA BAY over Seattle - Sunday Night. This is the 4th meeting in 5 years & SEA is 3-0 SU & ATS vs
TB. LY SEA beat TB 20-6 as a 6 pt HF & it was 10-6 entering the 4Q. SEA added a 46 yd FG followed up by
a 7 play 70 yd drive for a TD to cement the win. SEA had a 343-284 yd edge & sacked Garcia 5 times. SEA
is 4-14 ATS in EST games & 7-14 ATS as an AD. TB is 25-12 ATS as a non-div HF. LW TB went to Garcia due
to injury & he stayed within the gameplan as TB jumped out to a 17-3 lead in the 1H. He only had 5 pass att’s
in the 2H as TB rushed 26 times (3.8) & kept the defense fresh & aggressive. Two weeks ago TB beat GB
30-21 as they wore down their defense in the heat & humidity & had a 327-181 yd edge. They now get a SEA
team that just lost to GB and is beaten up by inj’s at CB, WR even if Hasselbeck returns he will have lost the
chemistry he had with the WR’s when he was gone. This is a great situation for a TB team that will seize the
chance to get even here & stay atop the surprising NFC South. FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 28 Seattle 13
OTHER GAMES
BUFFALO 24 San Diego 20 - This is the 3rd time in 4 years these teams square off & the home team has
covered both. SD is 2-6 ATS in EST game & goes straight to London after playing on SNF LW. BUF has 3 div
games on deck. BUF is 12-6 ATS at home & have covered 3 straight after a bye. QB Edwards is expected to
return from a concussion but BUF focused on the run game over the bye in practice. While BUF is a surprising
4-1 TY they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record & are 2-7 ATS the L2Y vs playoff caliber teams. They
have taken care of business TY vs the 2 West Coast teams at home with a 358-250 yd edge & 29-17 avg score.
SD has only won the yardage battle in 1 game TY (vs NYJ) being outgained 397-317 & the team hasn’t shown
the Schottenheimer toughness that it used to have. WR Chambers (ankle) was slated to miss LW’s game it’s
clear that the defense is sorely missing Merriman as they are 32nd in pass defense allowing 280 ypg (67%)
with a 10-5 ratio (92.3 opp QBR). This is a poor situation for SD travelling on a short week vs a rested BUF
team with a rowdy home crowd, solid special teams & the home team is the play.
Pittsburgh 24 CINCINNATI 7 - PIT swept CIN LY SU & ATS moving to 12-4 SU & 11-5 ATS. PIT avg’d 22-15
FD & 337-273 yd edges with an avg score of 24-12 LY. PIT returns from a much needed bye as Roethlisberger
(separated shoulder) was in bad shape after facing JAX & RB Parker who has avg’d 114 ypg (4.5) vs CIN will
return here. CIN is 2-7 ATS as a division HD while PIT is 8-3-2 ATS as a division AF. LW vs the Jets #28 pass
def CIN opted to rest QB Palmer (throwing elbow). They went with Fitzpatrick again who passed for 152 yds
(61%) 0-0 with a meager 4.6 ypa. CIN has yet to outgain a foe TY & minus the OT game vs the Giants have
been outgained 308-204 on the year & outrushed 165 (4.3) to 65 (2.9). PIT has outgained foes 292-227 on the
road TY & outrushed them 93 (3.7) to 52 (2.3). This is a very favorable matchup for PIT as they are 2nd in sacks
by (18) vs a CIN OL that is 29th in sacks allowed (19). Roethlisberger has been sacked 19 times but still has a
95.7 QBR. He should have a much easier time vs a CIN defense that is 31st in sacks by (5) with a misleading #5
pass defense that is inflated by their poor run defense (#28). Expect Paul Brown Stadium to have a lot of Terrible
Towels here giving PIT a good “awayfield” advantage making for a comfortable win by the Steelers.
MIAMI 17 Baltimore 10 - The Dolphins beat the Ravens 22-16 in OT as a 3 pt HF for (now BAL OC) Cam
Cameron’s only win of 2007. BAL was off 4 tough losses to CLE, SD, NE & IND & were very beaten up. With :08
left in regulation BAL decided against going for it on 4th & 1 & hit a FG to send it to OT. BAL missed a 44 yd FG in
OT & 3 plays later MIA scored on a 64 yd TD pass to win the game. This is the 3rd road game in 4 weeks for BAL
& the defense was exposed LW as they were without their #2 & #3 CB’s. BAL was taken out of their gameplan
early LW vs IND as the Colts had a 141-11 yd edge & a 17-0 lead. Flacco was left open to the IND pass rush
who tallied 4 sacks, 4 QB hits & he threw 3 int’s. MIA’s defense was very active LW vs HOU as they forced 4 TO’s
which they converted into 14 pts & were a QB draw with :03 left away from the win. GM Parcells is very familiar
with Cameron’s playbook as he came on board late LY & he also has the advantage with an improved roster
that BAL won’t be familiar with. While Flacco is showing signs of being a good QB the team has to put him in a
position to succeed each week MIA has the edge with Pennington who isn’t intimidated by a 3-4 defense. We’ll
side with the home team that has shown that isn’t afraid of the competition (NE & SD) by 6 here.
Dallas 35 ST LOUIS 21 - The Cowboys drilled the Rams 35-7 LY as a 13 pt HF. STL was minus RB Jackson
& 6 other starters. DAL was up 14-7 at the half & scored 3 TD’s in the 3Q finishing with 28-12 FD & 502-187
yd edges as STL only gained 19 yds in the 4Q. This game pits DAL #3 & #11 units (-2 TO’s) vs STL #30 & #31
units (-1 TO’s). DAL is 1-8 ATS as an AF of 9 or more. STL is 3-12 ATS at home & 1-10-1 ATS as a dog of 7.5+.
STL responded positively to the HC change LW & took advantage of a WAS team that had 3 fumbles (1 on
STL 39 & 1 on STL 34) with 1 being returned 75 yds for a TD. STL was manhandled statistically being outFD
22-8 & outgained 368-200 HD’s that won SU as DD AD’s LW are 2-13 SU & ATS since 1991. DAL was clearly
distracted by LW’s Pacman incident & were slowed by 3 former ass’t coaches being on the ARZ sidelines. ARZ
kept Owens in check (4 rec 9.0) & forced Romo to use his check downs keeping the ball in front of them. While
Barber led the team with 28 touches (6.2) they went away from Felix Jones again which cost them in the speed
area (22 yds 7.3). One of the problems of being “America’s Team” especially this year is that when they stumble
like they have the L3W the fan base gets hostile & look for the Cowboys to refocus here.
Minnesota 23 CHICAGO 20 - The Vikings swept the Bears SU LY but are only 3-6 ATS vs CHI. MIN beat the
Bears 34-31 in the 1st meeting as a 4’ pt AD & won 20-13 LY on MNF in the 2nd meeting but failed to cover as
10.5 pt HF’s. MIN is 8-4-1 ATS as a division AD. CHI is 1-5 ATS as a div favorite. MIN is off a last sec win vs a poor
DET team while CHI is off a last sec loss setup by an unlucky series of events. CHI took the lead with :17 left &
did a short KO to keep the ball out of Norwoods hands but ATL returned it to their 44. ATL then threw a 26 yd pass
to set up a 48 yd FG with :01 left. CHI had 21-12 FD & 348-279 yd edges over the L3Q but on 5 drives inside the
ATL 18 settled for 1 TD, 2 FG & were SOD. MIN dominated DET LW with a 18-8 FD & 392-212 yd edge but on 3
drives inside the DET 20 RB Peterson fumbled, they missed a FG & hit the game winning FG with :09 left. CHI
will be in a foul mood after letting a win slip away but they are very depleted in the secondary (without 3 DB’s in
4Q) & RB Forte has only rushed for 52 ypg (2.9) after a strong start. While MIN has an avg WR unit as best they
are good run blockers & they have a superior DL here vs an older CHI OL & the road team is the play.
CAROLINA 20 New Orleans 17 - The road team has excelled in the series going 10-2 SU & 12-0 ATS. LY
NO beat CAR 31-6 as a 2’ pt AF as the Panthers were forced to start David Carr as Testeverde (back spasms)
was scratched Sat night. NO finished with 22-11 FD & 373-195 yd edges as CAR had 4 TO’s set up 10 pts for
NO. NO is 10-2-1 ATS as a div AD. CAR is 4-9 ATS as a div HF. NO is now on the road for their next 4 games &
head straight to London after this. Minus the WAS game NO has outgained foes 447-306 as Brees has passed
for 355 yds (71%) with an 11-4 ratio. CAR went into TB off 2 big wins but Delhomme had an awful game with
3 int’s with 1 being converted into a TD & 2 on the TB 34 & 38. CAR was outrushed 142 (3.8) to 40 (2.0) which
is 83 yds less than their avg. CAR & NO are “play on” teams but we want to see if CAR gets C Kalil & LT Otah
back & if NO gets WR Colston & TE Shockey back & we’ll call this at the line for now.
NY GIANTS 34 San Francisco 20 - NYG thumped the 49ers LY 33-15 as a 9 pt HF. The Giants were up 26-7 after
the 3Q when they had a punt blocked & SF got a safety. SF went nowhere & was int’d on their next drive to set up
a 2 yd TD pass by Manning as the Giants went up 33-9. While the Giants had a slim yardage edge (279-267) they
earned 6 sacks & were +3 TO’s on the day as 53 of SF’s yds & a TD came in garbage time. The Giants are off LW’s
MNF game vs the Browns & get a very favorable matchup vs a SF team off B2B games vs NE & PHI. SF is 8-23-1
ATS away in the EST. The Giants are 18-4 SU & 17-5 ATS. NYG has the #1 & #3 units (+1 TO’s) vs SF’s #19 & #26
units (-5 TO’s). After outgaining foes 342-292 in the 1st 3 games (2-1 SU & ATS) SF has been outgained 409-272
losing by an avg score of 34-21. LW they scored 10 pts in the final :29 of the 1H & had a 26-17 lead at the end
of the 3Q on 78 & 77 yd drives. The defense couldn’t hang on in the 4Q as they allowed 23 pts & were outgained
78-(-7) not counting PHI’s 55 yd int return for a TD. West Coast teams simply don’t travel well out East but with no
line due to MNF & having PIT on deck we’ll call for a 2 TD win by the Giants in a higher scoring game.
HOUSTON 38 Detroit 21 - HOU is off their 1st win & DET remains winless after letting a 10-9 lead slip thru
their fingers losing on a 26 yd FG with :09 left. DET is 5-14 ATS on the road. TO’s were the key factor for the
Texans LW as they fell behind 14-3 early on 2 Schaub int’s, had a fmbl roll into the EZ & fmbl’d on an int that
MIA recovered & scored a TD on. They escaped with a 1 pt win when Schaub ran a QB draw on 4th & 2 with
:03 left. HOU had 23-14 FD & 485-370 yd edges as Schaub had 379 yds passing (52%). DET was forced to
start Orlovsky LW as Kitna (back spasms) didn’t make the trip. Orlovsky only had 150 yds passing (57%) with
a 1-0 ratio & was clearly nervous in his 1st start. DET stayed in the game thanks to 3 MIN TO’s as they were
outFD 18-8 & outgained 392-212. DET hasn’t outgained a single foe TY & went 18Q’s before the defense made
its 1st int of the season. Schaub & Johnson have far greater chemistry than what DET has in their passing
game. HOU is an undervalued team that is finally getting in gear & after having 3 straight games decided by
4 or less look for the Texans to come up big here in a higher scoring game.
WASHINGTON 30 Cleveland 13 - CLE came in off their bye week only to face the Giants LW on MNF & TE
Winslow may have sat out. WAS got caught looking past STL LW after beating DAL & PHI on the road losing
19-17 at home. WAS had 22-8 FD & 368-200 yd edges but fmbl’d twice to kill drives inside the STL 39 & 34
& had another returned 75 yds for a TD. Minus the NYG game WAS has outFD foes 22-16 & outgained them
383-272. CLE has been outgained in 3 of 4 games prior to MNF & have yet to gain 265 yds of offense on the
year. While Anderson has been abysmal TY (136 ypg 50% 3-6) it hasn’t been entirely his fault. CLE has had a
different starting OL in each game (inc MNF), been w/o WR Stallworth to take pressure off Edwards who has
dropped 6+ passes & RB Lewis has only avg’d 59 ypg rushing (3.4) TY. This is a bad spot for CLE off a MNF
game where they will go all out to redeem themselves on national TV. They now have to travel vs a WAS team
that was embarrassed by one of the worst teams in the NFL & will not overlook another bad team.
NFL
4*- Tenn
3*- Indy
2*- Oak
2*- TB
Totals
The 3*Totals are 13-5 72%
3* Pitt/Cincy Under
3* Boys/rams Over
2* 49/NYG Over
2* Balt/Mia Under
2* NWO/Car Under
System: undefeated Fav off of a bye. '02-'08- 15-1.
Tenn
Angles
(4)Tenn
(3) INDIANAPOLIS
(3) BUFFALO
Pro Stat
Dallas
KEY SELECTIONS
4* Tennessee over KANSAS CITY - Both teams are off their bye week & KC will go back to QB Croyle who
was KO’d in the 3Q vs NE here. LY TEN beat KC 28-17 as a 3 pt AF on a cold & windy day with the stadium
half empty. KC was able to pressure Young for most of the game & they had a 17-13 lead late in the 3Q. TEN
scored 13 unanswered pts & while they only had a 27 yd edge they were +3 in TO’s. Croyle threw for 217 yds
(58%) with a 2-2 ratio. TEN is 8-3 ATS as an AF while KC is 1-6 ATS at home. KC has been outgained in 10
straight games at home (356-307) scoring 13 or less in 5 games. In the L16 games with DT Haynesworth in
the lineup, TEN is allowing 75 ypg rushing (3.6), have tallied 44 sacks (would be 5th LY), a 15-27 ratio & have
allowed 13 or less in 10 games for a 14-2 SU & 12-3-1 ATS mark. While TEN does have a MNF HG vs IND
on deck Fisher has too good of a staff with too much forward momentum vs a rusty QB with an overmatched
OL vs an elite DL. FORECAST: Tennessee 28 KANSAS CITY 7
3* Indianapolis over GREEN BAY - Both teams come in off big wins vs overmatched opposing QB’s. IND is
10-2 ATS away vs the NFC. GB is 2-6 ATS hosting an AFC foe. IND finally showed up LW & got their 1st win in
5 tries at Lucas Oil Stadium. They throttled a beaten up BAL defense without its #2 & #3 CB’s as well as their
starting RT. Manning passed for 271 yds (68%) with a 3-0 ratio as IND had 15-8 FD & 322-111 yd edges thru
the 1st 3Q. IND forced 3 TO’s & five 3 & outs on BAL’s 1st 8 drives. #1 RB Addai left LW with a hamstring inj &
#3 RB Hart was KO’d with a knee inj & their status is unknown. GB held SEA to just 88 yds thru the 1st 3.5Q as
they were forced to start #3 QB Frye as Hasselbeck (hyperextended knee) was forced to miss. GB caught SEA
at the right time as the Seahawks’ struggles masked the slew of inj’s on defense & they still allowed 113 yds
rushing (4.9). They were down to just 3 DT’s LW & lost DT Pickett & are really hoping LY’s 1st RD DC Harrell
who was on the PUP for the 1st 6 Wks can contribute. Despite their defensive issues IND is a deeper team with
a better QB vs another beat up offense & are the play. FORECAST: Indianapolis 28 GREEN BAY 13
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* OAKLAND (+) over NY Jets - This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years with the Jets being 2-0 SU & ATS winning
by an avg 25-7. The Jets are 4-1 ATS on the road. OAK is 2-11 ATS at home. These teams are very closely
ranked the L4W with OAK having the #23 & #17 units vs NYJ #21 & #14 units. OAK came into LW’s game
wanting to open up the offense under interim HC Cable & OC Knapp. They wagered that Russell in his 6th
career start would be able to compete with Brees who is the best QB in the NFL TY. Russell had 35 pass att’s
but only 13 comp for 159 yds with an int & 40.1 QBR. OAK was outFD 23-12 & outgained 441-226. Kiffin was
using the run to keep Russell out of trouble but OAK has been outrushed 126 (4.1) to 85 (3.4) the L3W. The
Jets were a bit sluggish coming out of the bye & let CIN linger in the game longer than they should have. Favre
had a rough game with 2 int’s & a fumble that was returned for a TD. The Jets run game is a concern as they
have only rushed for 66 ypg (3.3) in their L3 weeks & only had a 3.2 ypc vs CIN’s #28 rush defense. This is a
good spot for OAK as they are at home vs a Jets team coming cross country & they need a win with a long
road trip vs BAL on deck. We’ll side with the very Ugly Dog here (21-9 70%) which has earned 5 straight
upset wins. FORECAST: OAKLAND 20 (+) NY Jets 17
2* TAMPA BAY over Seattle - Sunday Night. This is the 4th meeting in 5 years & SEA is 3-0 SU & ATS vs
TB. LY SEA beat TB 20-6 as a 6 pt HF & it was 10-6 entering the 4Q. SEA added a 46 yd FG followed up by
a 7 play 70 yd drive for a TD to cement the win. SEA had a 343-284 yd edge & sacked Garcia 5 times. SEA
is 4-14 ATS in EST games & 7-14 ATS as an AD. TB is 25-12 ATS as a non-div HF. LW TB went to Garcia due
to injury & he stayed within the gameplan as TB jumped out to a 17-3 lead in the 1H. He only had 5 pass att’s
in the 2H as TB rushed 26 times (3.8) & kept the defense fresh & aggressive. Two weeks ago TB beat GB
30-21 as they wore down their defense in the heat & humidity & had a 327-181 yd edge. They now get a SEA
team that just lost to GB and is beaten up by inj’s at CB, WR even if Hasselbeck returns he will have lost the
chemistry he had with the WR’s when he was gone. This is a great situation for a TB team that will seize the
chance to get even here & stay atop the surprising NFC South. FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 28 Seattle 13
OTHER GAMES
BUFFALO 24 San Diego 20 - This is the 3rd time in 4 years these teams square off & the home team has
covered both. SD is 2-6 ATS in EST game & goes straight to London after playing on SNF LW. BUF has 3 div
games on deck. BUF is 12-6 ATS at home & have covered 3 straight after a bye. QB Edwards is expected to
return from a concussion but BUF focused on the run game over the bye in practice. While BUF is a surprising
4-1 TY they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record & are 2-7 ATS the L2Y vs playoff caliber teams. They
have taken care of business TY vs the 2 West Coast teams at home with a 358-250 yd edge & 29-17 avg score.
SD has only won the yardage battle in 1 game TY (vs NYJ) being outgained 397-317 & the team hasn’t shown
the Schottenheimer toughness that it used to have. WR Chambers (ankle) was slated to miss LW’s game it’s
clear that the defense is sorely missing Merriman as they are 32nd in pass defense allowing 280 ypg (67%)
with a 10-5 ratio (92.3 opp QBR). This is a poor situation for SD travelling on a short week vs a rested BUF
team with a rowdy home crowd, solid special teams & the home team is the play.
Pittsburgh 24 CINCINNATI 7 - PIT swept CIN LY SU & ATS moving to 12-4 SU & 11-5 ATS. PIT avg’d 22-15
FD & 337-273 yd edges with an avg score of 24-12 LY. PIT returns from a much needed bye as Roethlisberger
(separated shoulder) was in bad shape after facing JAX & RB Parker who has avg’d 114 ypg (4.5) vs CIN will
return here. CIN is 2-7 ATS as a division HD while PIT is 8-3-2 ATS as a division AF. LW vs the Jets #28 pass
def CIN opted to rest QB Palmer (throwing elbow). They went with Fitzpatrick again who passed for 152 yds
(61%) 0-0 with a meager 4.6 ypa. CIN has yet to outgain a foe TY & minus the OT game vs the Giants have
been outgained 308-204 on the year & outrushed 165 (4.3) to 65 (2.9). PIT has outgained foes 292-227 on the
road TY & outrushed them 93 (3.7) to 52 (2.3). This is a very favorable matchup for PIT as they are 2nd in sacks
by (18) vs a CIN OL that is 29th in sacks allowed (19). Roethlisberger has been sacked 19 times but still has a
95.7 QBR. He should have a much easier time vs a CIN defense that is 31st in sacks by (5) with a misleading #5
pass defense that is inflated by their poor run defense (#28). Expect Paul Brown Stadium to have a lot of Terrible
Towels here giving PIT a good “awayfield” advantage making for a comfortable win by the Steelers.
MIAMI 17 Baltimore 10 - The Dolphins beat the Ravens 22-16 in OT as a 3 pt HF for (now BAL OC) Cam
Cameron’s only win of 2007. BAL was off 4 tough losses to CLE, SD, NE & IND & were very beaten up. With :08
left in regulation BAL decided against going for it on 4th & 1 & hit a FG to send it to OT. BAL missed a 44 yd FG in
OT & 3 plays later MIA scored on a 64 yd TD pass to win the game. This is the 3rd road game in 4 weeks for BAL
& the defense was exposed LW as they were without their #2 & #3 CB’s. BAL was taken out of their gameplan
early LW vs IND as the Colts had a 141-11 yd edge & a 17-0 lead. Flacco was left open to the IND pass rush
who tallied 4 sacks, 4 QB hits & he threw 3 int’s. MIA’s defense was very active LW vs HOU as they forced 4 TO’s
which they converted into 14 pts & were a QB draw with :03 left away from the win. GM Parcells is very familiar
with Cameron’s playbook as he came on board late LY & he also has the advantage with an improved roster
that BAL won’t be familiar with. While Flacco is showing signs of being a good QB the team has to put him in a
position to succeed each week MIA has the edge with Pennington who isn’t intimidated by a 3-4 defense. We’ll
side with the home team that has shown that isn’t afraid of the competition (NE & SD) by 6 here.
Dallas 35 ST LOUIS 21 - The Cowboys drilled the Rams 35-7 LY as a 13 pt HF. STL was minus RB Jackson
& 6 other starters. DAL was up 14-7 at the half & scored 3 TD’s in the 3Q finishing with 28-12 FD & 502-187
yd edges as STL only gained 19 yds in the 4Q. This game pits DAL #3 & #11 units (-2 TO’s) vs STL #30 & #31
units (-1 TO’s). DAL is 1-8 ATS as an AF of 9 or more. STL is 3-12 ATS at home & 1-10-1 ATS as a dog of 7.5+.
STL responded positively to the HC change LW & took advantage of a WAS team that had 3 fumbles (1 on
STL 39 & 1 on STL 34) with 1 being returned 75 yds for a TD. STL was manhandled statistically being outFD
22-8 & outgained 368-200 HD’s that won SU as DD AD’s LW are 2-13 SU & ATS since 1991. DAL was clearly
distracted by LW’s Pacman incident & were slowed by 3 former ass’t coaches being on the ARZ sidelines. ARZ
kept Owens in check (4 rec 9.0) & forced Romo to use his check downs keeping the ball in front of them. While
Barber led the team with 28 touches (6.2) they went away from Felix Jones again which cost them in the speed
area (22 yds 7.3). One of the problems of being “America’s Team” especially this year is that when they stumble
like they have the L3W the fan base gets hostile & look for the Cowboys to refocus here.
Minnesota 23 CHICAGO 20 - The Vikings swept the Bears SU LY but are only 3-6 ATS vs CHI. MIN beat the
Bears 34-31 in the 1st meeting as a 4’ pt AD & won 20-13 LY on MNF in the 2nd meeting but failed to cover as
10.5 pt HF’s. MIN is 8-4-1 ATS as a division AD. CHI is 1-5 ATS as a div favorite. MIN is off a last sec win vs a poor
DET team while CHI is off a last sec loss setup by an unlucky series of events. CHI took the lead with :17 left &
did a short KO to keep the ball out of Norwoods hands but ATL returned it to their 44. ATL then threw a 26 yd pass
to set up a 48 yd FG with :01 left. CHI had 21-12 FD & 348-279 yd edges over the L3Q but on 5 drives inside the
ATL 18 settled for 1 TD, 2 FG & were SOD. MIN dominated DET LW with a 18-8 FD & 392-212 yd edge but on 3
drives inside the DET 20 RB Peterson fumbled, they missed a FG & hit the game winning FG with :09 left. CHI
will be in a foul mood after letting a win slip away but they are very depleted in the secondary (without 3 DB’s in
4Q) & RB Forte has only rushed for 52 ypg (2.9) after a strong start. While MIN has an avg WR unit as best they
are good run blockers & they have a superior DL here vs an older CHI OL & the road team is the play.
CAROLINA 20 New Orleans 17 - The road team has excelled in the series going 10-2 SU & 12-0 ATS. LY
NO beat CAR 31-6 as a 2’ pt AF as the Panthers were forced to start David Carr as Testeverde (back spasms)
was scratched Sat night. NO finished with 22-11 FD & 373-195 yd edges as CAR had 4 TO’s set up 10 pts for
NO. NO is 10-2-1 ATS as a div AD. CAR is 4-9 ATS as a div HF. NO is now on the road for their next 4 games &
head straight to London after this. Minus the WAS game NO has outgained foes 447-306 as Brees has passed
for 355 yds (71%) with an 11-4 ratio. CAR went into TB off 2 big wins but Delhomme had an awful game with
3 int’s with 1 being converted into a TD & 2 on the TB 34 & 38. CAR was outrushed 142 (3.8) to 40 (2.0) which
is 83 yds less than their avg. CAR & NO are “play on” teams but we want to see if CAR gets C Kalil & LT Otah
back & if NO gets WR Colston & TE Shockey back & we’ll call this at the line for now.
NY GIANTS 34 San Francisco 20 - NYG thumped the 49ers LY 33-15 as a 9 pt HF. The Giants were up 26-7 after
the 3Q when they had a punt blocked & SF got a safety. SF went nowhere & was int’d on their next drive to set up
a 2 yd TD pass by Manning as the Giants went up 33-9. While the Giants had a slim yardage edge (279-267) they
earned 6 sacks & were +3 TO’s on the day as 53 of SF’s yds & a TD came in garbage time. The Giants are off LW’s
MNF game vs the Browns & get a very favorable matchup vs a SF team off B2B games vs NE & PHI. SF is 8-23-1
ATS away in the EST. The Giants are 18-4 SU & 17-5 ATS. NYG has the #1 & #3 units (+1 TO’s) vs SF’s #19 & #26
units (-5 TO’s). After outgaining foes 342-292 in the 1st 3 games (2-1 SU & ATS) SF has been outgained 409-272
losing by an avg score of 34-21. LW they scored 10 pts in the final :29 of the 1H & had a 26-17 lead at the end
of the 3Q on 78 & 77 yd drives. The defense couldn’t hang on in the 4Q as they allowed 23 pts & were outgained
78-(-7) not counting PHI’s 55 yd int return for a TD. West Coast teams simply don’t travel well out East but with no
line due to MNF & having PIT on deck we’ll call for a 2 TD win by the Giants in a higher scoring game.
HOUSTON 38 Detroit 21 - HOU is off their 1st win & DET remains winless after letting a 10-9 lead slip thru
their fingers losing on a 26 yd FG with :09 left. DET is 5-14 ATS on the road. TO’s were the key factor for the
Texans LW as they fell behind 14-3 early on 2 Schaub int’s, had a fmbl roll into the EZ & fmbl’d on an int that
MIA recovered & scored a TD on. They escaped with a 1 pt win when Schaub ran a QB draw on 4th & 2 with
:03 left. HOU had 23-14 FD & 485-370 yd edges as Schaub had 379 yds passing (52%). DET was forced to
start Orlovsky LW as Kitna (back spasms) didn’t make the trip. Orlovsky only had 150 yds passing (57%) with
a 1-0 ratio & was clearly nervous in his 1st start. DET stayed in the game thanks to 3 MIN TO’s as they were
outFD 18-8 & outgained 392-212. DET hasn’t outgained a single foe TY & went 18Q’s before the defense made
its 1st int of the season. Schaub & Johnson have far greater chemistry than what DET has in their passing
game. HOU is an undervalued team that is finally getting in gear & after having 3 straight games decided by
4 or less look for the Texans to come up big here in a higher scoring game.
WASHINGTON 30 Cleveland 13 - CLE came in off their bye week only to face the Giants LW on MNF & TE
Winslow may have sat out. WAS got caught looking past STL LW after beating DAL & PHI on the road losing
19-17 at home. WAS had 22-8 FD & 368-200 yd edges but fmbl’d twice to kill drives inside the STL 39 & 34
& had another returned 75 yds for a TD. Minus the NYG game WAS has outFD foes 22-16 & outgained them
383-272. CLE has been outgained in 3 of 4 games prior to MNF & have yet to gain 265 yds of offense on the
year. While Anderson has been abysmal TY (136 ypg 50% 3-6) it hasn’t been entirely his fault. CLE has had a
different starting OL in each game (inc MNF), been w/o WR Stallworth to take pressure off Edwards who has
dropped 6+ passes & RB Lewis has only avg’d 59 ypg rushing (3.4) TY. This is a bad spot for CLE off a MNF
game where they will go all out to redeem themselves on national TV. They now have to travel vs a WAS team
that was embarrassed by one of the worst teams in the NFL & will not overlook another bad team.
Sun, 10/19/08 - 1:00 PMStephen Nover | NFL Total
double-dime bet408 BUF / 407 SDC Over 44.0 BetUS
Analysis:
Chargers-Bills Over 44
Analysis: Forget LaDainian Tomlinson and his toe injury. The Chargers aren't primarily a running club anymore. They've become a darn good passing club. Philip Rivers has emerged as a force throwing for at least three touchdown passes in four of six games this season. He has at least one touchdown throw in 13 consecutive games.
Rivers should have another big day with a healthy corps of wideouts operating against a beat-up Buffalo secondary that could be without two cornerbacks. The Bills also could be without their best pass rusher, Aaron Schobel. He hasn't practiced all week because of a foot injury.
The Bills' passing attack has picked up enough where Buffalo should be able to put up its share of points against a weak San Diego secondary that no longer is protected by a strong pass rush. Trent Edwards has been steady and Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch are playmakers.
Both teams are very live for special teams touchdowns, too, because of excellent kick and punt returners.
double-dime bet408 BUF / 407 SDC Over 44.0 BetUS
Analysis:
Chargers-Bills Over 44
Analysis: Forget LaDainian Tomlinson and his toe injury. The Chargers aren't primarily a running club anymore. They've become a darn good passing club. Philip Rivers has emerged as a force throwing for at least three touchdown passes in four of six games this season. He has at least one touchdown throw in 13 consecutive games.
Rivers should have another big day with a healthy corps of wideouts operating against a beat-up Buffalo secondary that could be without two cornerbacks. The Bills also could be without their best pass rusher, Aaron Schobel. He hasn't practiced all week because of a foot injury.
The Bills' passing attack has picked up enough where Buffalo should be able to put up its share of points against a weak San Diego secondary that no longer is protected by a strong pass rush. Trent Edwards has been steady and Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch are playmakers.
Both teams are very live for special teams touchdowns, too, because of excellent kick and punt returners.
