Dave Blezow
The Giants are giving a full 10 points to a Lions team that is 4-1 against the spread in 2010 and is coming off a 38-point victory. That usually would be grounds to flash the take sign, but at this juncture, against this opponent, that number is a bargain.
Big Blue will be able to run and pass on the Lions’ ragged defense, which will translate to big points as they continue to cut down on the mistakes that plagued them early in the season. But the best part of this matchup will come when Sean Hill tries to play catch-up, possibly without top receiver Calvin Johnson. All of the sacks and picks will add to the Giants’ total.
AP
BLUE’S CRUISE: Hakeem Nicks (left) and Ahmad Bradshaw will have plenty more to celebrate Sunday when the Giants whip up on the Lions, Dave Blezow says.
The pick: Giants, -10.
Jets (-3) over BRONCOS: Two weeks ago at Buffalo, the Jets were picked by some to fall victim to a trap game. They won big, paying proper respect to a divisional game. This week, they are faced with traveling on a short week after a tough Monday Night win, all classic handicapping harbingers of an impending loss. Rex Ryan won’t let that happen here, though. He’ll keep the Jets at full throttle into their bye, hammering away at the Broncos on the ground and taking shots down the field against their depleted secondary. Kyle Orton will put up some numbers, but the Denver offense won’t be on the field enough for it to amount to too much.
Chargers (-8) over RAMS: Tough lay with a Chargers team that is 0-3 on the road. But whenever they cut out the self-inflicted wounds, they win big. Sam Bradford doesn’t have the receivers to keep up if San Diego shows up.
Chiefs (+41/2) over TEXANS: Sticking with the Chiefs. Love the way they hit and frustrated Peyton Manning last week. Just a missed field goal away from a nice backdoor cover. They can stop Houston’s run like the Giants did and squeak one out, maybe with the help of a special-teams score.
Ravens (+21/2) over PATRIOTS: The Ravens romped 33-14 in the AFC wild-card round at Foxborough last season. They know they can outmuscle the Patriots, and now can take aim at Tom Brady and try to shut down all the short stuff without having to worry about Randy Moss deep. Better team, with points.
Saints (-4) over BUCCANEERS: Saints have to be better than this, and the Bucs likely can’t be this good. If Charlie Batch can throw three touchdown passes in Tampa, maybe this can be the week Drew Brees gets it going.
EAGLES (-3) over Falcons: Like the Falcons a little better as a team at this point, but the Eagles need to win a home game after falling at the Linc to the Packers and Redskins, and Atlanta’s four-game winning streak seems about to hit its expiration date.
BEARS (-61/2) over Seahawks: The Bears bounced back from their Giants disaster by trampling the Panthers. Now, Jay Cutler, who missed that game with a concussion, starts to rebuild his confidence against Seattle’s porous pass defense.
Dolphins (+3) over PACKERS: Nick Barnett and Jermichael Finley are out, and Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews could join them. If that’s the case, don’t see how the Packers can stand up to a Miami team that has had two weeks to stew about back-to-back home losses to the Jets and Patriots.
Browns (+131/2) over STEELERS: Would have preferred the full 14 but will settle for this on the grounds that Ben Roethlisberger should be a little rusty in his return, and Colt McCoy could be better than the quarterbacks Cleveland had been using.
Raiders (+61/2) over 49ERS: Can understand the strategy in picking a winless team this far into the season, but not as nearly touchdown favorites. Raiders don’t have a ton of talent but are showing some heart.
Cowboys (+11/2) over VIKINGS: One of these teams will be 1-4 after this game. Cornerback Cedric Griffin’s injury will help the Dallas passing game. Scared away from the Vikes because of the way Brett Favre was holding his elbow late Monday night.
Colts (-3) over REDSKINS: With the top runners on each side either out or ailing, this shapes up as a classic aerial duel between Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb. Hard to go against Manning in one of those in prime time.
MONDAY NIGHT
Titans (-3) over JAGUARS: Both teams are 3-2, but the stat that stands out is that the Jaguars are giving up 27.4 points per game. Not easy to keep winning that way.
BEST BETS: Giants, Jets, Raiders.
LAST WEEK: 4-10 overall, 0-3 Best Bets.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: (1-4 in 2010, 29-13-1 last 43). Giants.