ANDY ISKOE
Colts at Titans
Pick: Titans +4
The season is almost a write off for the Titans who, at 0-4, are experiencing a much different fate this season than last when they started 10-0 en route to a 13-3 record and the AFC's top seed in the Playoffs where they lost at home to Baltimore in their first Playoff game. Indy has seen a smooth coaching transition from Tony Dungy to Jim Caldwell and, unlike last season, QB Peyton Manning has started the season fully healthy, leading the Colts to a 4-0 start. Despite losing all 4 games Tennessee has some solid edges in the rushing game, both on offense and defense as they are averaging 5.5 yards per rush on offense (# 2) while allowing just 2.8 yards per rush (# 2). The Titans do miss the pass rushing of Albert Haynesworth, resulting in some poor pass defense stats. The Titans are out of favor this week after having burned their backers the past two weeks against the Jets and Jaguars. Yet if Indianapolis is so much the better team (as their 4-0 record and impressive offense stats would indicate) why are they favored by just over a FG rather than closer to a TD? This tells us that the linesmaker acknowledges there is not as great a gap between these teams as the public at large perceives. We will be getting an intensely inspired effort from the Titans on Sunday night and an outright upset would not be a surprise. But Manning's ability to lead a late drive for a come from behind TD or a game winning FG make taking the points the preferred option
Colts at Titans
Pick: Titans +4
The season is almost a write off for the Titans who, at 0-4, are experiencing a much different fate this season than last when they started 10-0 en route to a 13-3 record and the AFC's top seed in the Playoffs where they lost at home to Baltimore in their first Playoff game. Indy has seen a smooth coaching transition from Tony Dungy to Jim Caldwell and, unlike last season, QB Peyton Manning has started the season fully healthy, leading the Colts to a 4-0 start. Despite losing all 4 games Tennessee has some solid edges in the rushing game, both on offense and defense as they are averaging 5.5 yards per rush on offense (# 2) while allowing just 2.8 yards per rush (# 2). The Titans do miss the pass rushing of Albert Haynesworth, resulting in some poor pass defense stats. The Titans are out of favor this week after having burned their backers the past two weeks against the Jets and Jaguars. Yet if Indianapolis is so much the better team (as their 4-0 record and impressive offense stats would indicate) why are they favored by just over a FG rather than closer to a TD? This tells us that the linesmaker acknowledges there is not as great a gap between these teams as the public at large perceives. We will be getting an intensely inspired effort from the Titans on Sunday night and an outright upset would not be a surprise. But Manning's ability to lead a late drive for a come from behind TD or a game winning FG make taking the points the preferred option
Freddy Wills
Seahawks -1 9* POD
In the beginning of the year I said these two teams were going to bet he two surprise teams in the NFL. The Jaguars are now 2-2 winning two games in a row and looked dominant last weekend while the Seahawks have struggled since they lost Hasselback, but have always dominated at home. Sunday they will be home sending the Jaguars on their longest trip in several years. It's hard to play in Seattle and I think they will struggle as Hasselback will return against the Jaguars tomorrow. I like the under the radar Seahawks team and I will back them here like I did against the Bears when they out gained them in every offensive category but lost mainly because of Olindo Mare's 2 missed field goals. That won't happen on Sunday. Mare won't be kicking 6 field goals with Hasselback at the helm or against the Jaguars defense that ranks 31st against the pass. Look for Hasselback to get it going early with the passing game and their deep WR core that features Branch, whose your mama, and Burelsson. Two trends dating back to the 1985 season that I love working against the Jaguars and for the Seahawks are:Seahawks fall into a 46-21-1 ATS since the 1994 season where a team coming off an ATS loss of 3+ and going over by more than 3 now as a home favorite. Jaguars fall into a 14-43-2 ATS trend since 1985 season where a team is coming off a win and the over as a home dog now playing in an open stadium with artificial turf. Those teams are losing the game by an average margin of 10.3 points. Jaguars are due for a let down and you will see a much better Seahawks defense here on Sunday.
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Patriots -2.5 (buy 1/2)
Snow today in Denver, but clear and 48 degrees tomorrow. Weather won't play a factor in tomorrows game and I like the Patriots for the third week in a row despite going west to play. Broncos are definitely better than many expected, but I still think they are over rated. Even with their win over the Cowboys I think all that proved was just how bad the Cowboys are. The Patriots on the other hand continue to progress and get better which I said last week when I had them as my POD. Brady's going to get better and better each week off his injury that's just the way it goes. Look for him to have a big game against the Broncos as Bellecheck will face his former coach tomorrow and that usually does not bode well for Bill's pupil. Should be an interesting game and if the Broncos can pull off a win I can see them winning 11 games in that division, but a loss will likely set them back to realistic expectations.
Panthers -4 (3.5-Dime POD) (1-5 scale)
Seahawks -1 9* POD
In the beginning of the year I said these two teams were going to bet he two surprise teams in the NFL. The Jaguars are now 2-2 winning two games in a row and looked dominant last weekend while the Seahawks have struggled since they lost Hasselback, but have always dominated at home. Sunday they will be home sending the Jaguars on their longest trip in several years. It's hard to play in Seattle and I think they will struggle as Hasselback will return against the Jaguars tomorrow. I like the under the radar Seahawks team and I will back them here like I did against the Bears when they out gained them in every offensive category but lost mainly because of Olindo Mare's 2 missed field goals. That won't happen on Sunday. Mare won't be kicking 6 field goals with Hasselback at the helm or against the Jaguars defense that ranks 31st against the pass. Look for Hasselback to get it going early with the passing game and their deep WR core that features Branch, whose your mama, and Burelsson. Two trends dating back to the 1985 season that I love working against the Jaguars and for the Seahawks are:Seahawks fall into a 46-21-1 ATS since the 1994 season where a team coming off an ATS loss of 3+ and going over by more than 3 now as a home favorite. Jaguars fall into a 14-43-2 ATS trend since 1985 season where a team is coming off a win and the over as a home dog now playing in an open stadium with artificial turf. Those teams are losing the game by an average margin of 10.3 points. Jaguars are due for a let down and you will see a much better Seahawks defense here on Sunday.
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Patriots -2.5 (buy 1/2)
Snow today in Denver, but clear and 48 degrees tomorrow. Weather won't play a factor in tomorrows game and I like the Patriots for the third week in a row despite going west to play. Broncos are definitely better than many expected, but I still think they are over rated. Even with their win over the Cowboys I think all that proved was just how bad the Cowboys are. The Patriots on the other hand continue to progress and get better which I said last week when I had them as my POD. Brady's going to get better and better each week off his injury that's just the way it goes. Look for him to have a big game against the Broncos as Bellecheck will face his former coach tomorrow and that usually does not bode well for Bill's pupil. Should be an interesting game and if the Broncos can pull off a win I can see them winning 11 games in that division, but a loss will likely set them back to realistic expectations.
Panthers -4 (3.5-Dime POD) (1-5 scale)
Bob Balfe
Jacksonville vs. Seattle
Play: Jacksonville +1.5
Matt Hasselbeck returns at QB for the Seahawks, but he is missing the whole left side of his offensive line. I do not see the timing being there for Hasselbeck as he has not played since week one. The Jags are in mid season form and just have too many weapons for Seattle. Look for the Jags offense to hit full stride today. Take the Jaguars.
Twins +150 over Yankees
Pavano/Pettitte
Jacksonville vs. Seattle
Play: Jacksonville +1.5
Matt Hasselbeck returns at QB for the Seahawks, but he is missing the whole left side of his offensive line. I do not see the timing being there for Hasselbeck as he has not played since week one. The Jags are in mid season form and just have too many weapons for Seattle. Look for the Jags offense to hit full stride today. Take the Jaguars.
Twins +150 over Yankees
Pavano/Pettitte
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
New England vs. Denver
Play: Denver +3.5
For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the home side: Whether they deserve it or not, the Broncos are 4-0 and new head-coach Josh McDaniels will be in his first head-to-head battle with his mentor as Bill Belichick and Patriots head into Denver as 3 1/2 point favorites. McDaniels brought in Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator and he installed a 3-4 scheme that has paid significant dividends for the Broncos, who have allowed 26 points and two TD's which are both league bests. The unit also ranks atop the AFC in yards allowed (239.8), sa~cks (15) and turnovers (10). Denver is plus-7 in turnover differential and has already converted those takeaways into valuable points. Perhaps most surprisingly, the Broncos are getting efficient play from Kyle Orton, who has completed 59.0 % of his passes for 906 yards with five TD's and no INT's. He went 20 for 29 for 243 yards and two TD's against Dallas last week. Dating back to last season, Denver is 4-1 SU/ATS its last five overall and 15-5 ATS its last 20 vs. New England. On the other side of the field: The Patriots have been sharp at home, and not so great on the road; when asked to evaluate his team, Tom Brady replied: "We're trying to make some improvements," he said. "Obviously, we wish that we would be 4-0, but we're not. We've played some good teams, some good defenses that have really challenged us in some different ways. This week will be a big test for us, (and) another very talented defense, a very well-rounded team, a well-coached team. We've got our work cut out for us." New England is also just 1-2 ATS against conference opponents this season. Bottom line: With nearly 90% of the money on the Patriots, New England continues to be the one of the biggest public teams out there and the oddsmakers know it; and that, I believe, offers us a big opportunity on the undervalued Broncos. When taking all of the above factors into consideration, I look for DENVER to move to 11-3 ATS and 12-2 SU vs. the Patriots when playing in front of the hometown crowd and for New England to fall to 0-2 ATS on the road this season! 10* Broncos
Indianapolis vs. Tennessee
Play: Tennessee +3.5
For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the home side: Tennessee and Indianapolis both made the playoffs out of the AFC South as the Titans finished with the league's best record to end the Colts' run of five straight division titles last season; this year the Colts are 4-0 and the Titans are reeling with an 0-4 record and now have to face the leagues best offense. Despite the awful start, coach Jeff Fisher is trying to stay positive. His 2002 team started 1-4 but managed to reach the AFC championship game; "They'll find a way out of this, and that's all we can do," Fisher said. "I know I've said this before, but you come back and you work and you try to find a way to win the next game and keep your focus on improving." One extremely bright spot for Tennessee has been the play of running back Chris Johnson, who leads the league with 434 yards rushing. He ran for 77 yards and a TD on 19 carries in the win over Indianapolis last season. It has to be pointed out that the Titans are 5-1 ATS their last six vs. the Colts and 6-3 ATS their last nine when playing at home vs. Indianapolis. On the other side of the field: Peyton Manning looks like an unstoppable machine again and his defense has been just as awesome, however I believe the Colts are in for a letdown in this game as they play a desperate home squad; it's interesting to note that Indianapolis is a poor 2-4 ATS over the last two seasons as a road favorite of 3 1/2 to 7 points. Bottom line: Tennessee is already 1-0 ATS as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points and over the last two seasons its 4-0 ATS in the same position! Look for the Titans to do just enough in this one to sneak away with the ATS victory! 9* Titans.
New England vs. Denver
Play: Denver +3.5
For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the home side: Whether they deserve it or not, the Broncos are 4-0 and new head-coach Josh McDaniels will be in his first head-to-head battle with his mentor as Bill Belichick and Patriots head into Denver as 3 1/2 point favorites. McDaniels brought in Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator and he installed a 3-4 scheme that has paid significant dividends for the Broncos, who have allowed 26 points and two TD's which are both league bests. The unit also ranks atop the AFC in yards allowed (239.8), sa~cks (15) and turnovers (10). Denver is plus-7 in turnover differential and has already converted those takeaways into valuable points. Perhaps most surprisingly, the Broncos are getting efficient play from Kyle Orton, who has completed 59.0 % of his passes for 906 yards with five TD's and no INT's. He went 20 for 29 for 243 yards and two TD's against Dallas last week. Dating back to last season, Denver is 4-1 SU/ATS its last five overall and 15-5 ATS its last 20 vs. New England. On the other side of the field: The Patriots have been sharp at home, and not so great on the road; when asked to evaluate his team, Tom Brady replied: "We're trying to make some improvements," he said. "Obviously, we wish that we would be 4-0, but we're not. We've played some good teams, some good defenses that have really challenged us in some different ways. This week will be a big test for us, (and) another very talented defense, a very well-rounded team, a well-coached team. We've got our work cut out for us." New England is also just 1-2 ATS against conference opponents this season. Bottom line: With nearly 90% of the money on the Patriots, New England continues to be the one of the biggest public teams out there and the oddsmakers know it; and that, I believe, offers us a big opportunity on the undervalued Broncos. When taking all of the above factors into consideration, I look for DENVER to move to 11-3 ATS and 12-2 SU vs. the Patriots when playing in front of the hometown crowd and for New England to fall to 0-2 ATS on the road this season! 10* Broncos
Indianapolis vs. Tennessee
Play: Tennessee +3.5
For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the home side: Tennessee and Indianapolis both made the playoffs out of the AFC South as the Titans finished with the league's best record to end the Colts' run of five straight division titles last season; this year the Colts are 4-0 and the Titans are reeling with an 0-4 record and now have to face the leagues best offense. Despite the awful start, coach Jeff Fisher is trying to stay positive. His 2002 team started 1-4 but managed to reach the AFC championship game; "They'll find a way out of this, and that's all we can do," Fisher said. "I know I've said this before, but you come back and you work and you try to find a way to win the next game and keep your focus on improving." One extremely bright spot for Tennessee has been the play of running back Chris Johnson, who leads the league with 434 yards rushing. He ran for 77 yards and a TD on 19 carries in the win over Indianapolis last season. It has to be pointed out that the Titans are 5-1 ATS their last six vs. the Colts and 6-3 ATS their last nine when playing at home vs. Indianapolis. On the other side of the field: Peyton Manning looks like an unstoppable machine again and his defense has been just as awesome, however I believe the Colts are in for a letdown in this game as they play a desperate home squad; it's interesting to note that Indianapolis is a poor 2-4 ATS over the last two seasons as a road favorite of 3 1/2 to 7 points. Bottom line: Tennessee is already 1-0 ATS as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points and over the last two seasons its 4-0 ATS in the same position! Look for the Titans to do just enough in this one to sneak away with the ATS victory! 9* Titans.
