Budins little fake ass crews are the cappers on his site! LOL what a chode monkey, guy sounds like he has a dildo in his mouth and his fake ass "crew" was demarco!! LOL demarco, is his hair real or does he just try to look like a wanker. I like Budins plays sometimes, but cmon now, what "crews" does that bullshitter know? Dude needs to lay off the chronic...
DR. BOB PAID by me
3 Star Selection
DENVER (+3.5) 21 New England 16
11-Oct-09 01:15 PM Pacific Time
The Denver Broncos have made a believer out of me and they have played considerably better so far this season than the Patriots have. Despite that fact, the Broncos are once again a home underdog even after winning as such just last week over another overrated media darling (Dallas). Denver's defense is quick and aggressive under new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan and holding the Cowboys' explosive attack (averaging 6.5 yppl this season) to just 4.4 yards per play is an incredible feat and strong evidence that their 4-0 start is not a fluke. The Broncos have allowed just 4.1 yppl in those 4 wins against teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team. New England has the reputation of being an explosive offensive team but that just isn't the case with Tom Brady not looking anything close to his old self after missing last season. Brady has averaged a mediocre 6.1 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) and the Patriots are averaging a modest 5.3 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) and have not averaged more than 5.7 yppl in any game. The Pats faced just one better than average defensive team this season and gained just 4.5 yppl in a 9-16 loss at New York (no, Baltimore is not a better than average defensive team - just look at their stats). I just don't see Brady and company doing much damage against a Denver defense that is averaging 3.8 sacks per game while limiting opposing rushing attacks to only 3.3 ypr.
Denver's offense, while nothing special, actually has the same rating as the Pats' attack, averaging 5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team (and that does not include the fluke 87 yard tipped pass TD against Cincy in week 1, which I took out of my stats). The big difference in this game is defense, which Denver has plenty of and the Patriots don't. New England has given up 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average team. The Pats are just average against the pass and horrible against the run (4.7 ypr allowed), so Denver should be able to move the ball at a pretty good clip and score enough points to win.
My math model using only this year's games favors Denver by 9 1/2 points and my ratings, which weigh in my ratings prior to the season starting, favor the Broncos by 4 1/2 points. I suppose it's possible that Tom Brady suddenly turns into the incredible 2007 version of himself, when he averaged a ridiculous 7.8 yards per pass play. However, the math would still have Denver by 4 1/2 points using the Broncos' games from this season and my ratings would favor New England by just 1/2 a point. So, even if New England is as good as they can possibly be offensively they still shouldn't be favored in this game. Brady has averaged 6.5 yppp in his career, so it's very unlikely that he'll play at his incredible 2007 level. Even if the true line were pick, then Denver would have a 58% chance of covering at +3 and a 62% chance of covering at +3 1/2.
Over the years I've learned that 4 games is enough to tell me pretty much how good a team is and the public always has a tough time believing that a team that wasn't supposed to be very good can be as good as they've looked the first few weeks. Thus, the odds makers are slow to react to the reality while clinging to the perception that those teams can't possibly be that good. I've uncovered an interesting trend that illustrates my point. Teams that are 3-0 or 4-0 straight up that are at home and favored by 4 points or less or getting points are 27-7 ATS since 1980, including a perfect 18-0 ATS if their opponent is not in their division (division foes have more knowledge about personnel and also tend to get more fired up). Last year the team that fit that trend was the Tennessee Titans, who weren't expected to be that good and went on to a 13-3 record. That trend tabbed Denver last week over Dallas and the Broncos are still underrated. If they win this game then I think people will really start to believe (which is why that unbeaten angle doesn't work as well from week 6 on). I already believe in the Broncos and I also know how mediocre the Patriots are. Denver also applies to a very good 102-37-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator.
I'll take Denver in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 2-Stars as a dog of less than 3 points.
NFL Strong Opinions
KANSAS CITY (+8.5) 21 Dallas 24
11-Oct-09 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Dallas is not a good team. The Cowboys are still a good offensive team (although not as good with breakaway back Felix Jones shelved), but their defense is a mess. The Cowboys have allowed 6.1 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would average only 5.1 yppl against an average team and that unit is actually worse than Kansas City's offense, which is 0.8 yppl worse than average (4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team). What makes the Cowboys mediocre is an offense that has averaged 6.5 yppl (against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl to an average attack). Dallas is still 1.2 yppl better than average if you take out the stats of injured running back Felix Jones, who has 212 yards on 21 carries this year and has averaged an incredible 9.4 ypr on 51 career rushes. Kansas City is 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl), so the Cowboys should move the ball well, but my math model only favors Dallas by 9 points with Jones out.
I don't see the Cowboys getting fired up for a winless non-division opponent that has looked pathetic on offense (just 40 point total the last 3 games). In fact, horrible teams (win percentage less than .333) that have scored 17 points or fewer in 3 or more consecutive games are 95-39 ATS when facing a non-division foe (division foes aren't as likely to letdown) that does not have revenge (less likely to letdown with revenge). That angle is 43-14 ATS if the opponent is off a loss, so I'm not concerned about the Cowboys coming in here pissed off over last week's loss at Denver. I'd like to have some line value to play a game based on the situations, so I'll consider Kansas City a Strong Opinion at +7 1/2 points or more rather than making them a Best Bet. However, I'd take the Chiefs in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more.
NY Jets (-1.5) 20 MIAMI 13
12-Oct-09 05:30 PM Pacific Time
Despite last week's loss to the NFL's best team in New Orleans, the Jets still look like a legitimate playoff team led by a very good defense that has allowed just 4.5 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit. That includes holding good offensive teams Houston to just 3.8 yppl, New England to just 4.5 yppl, and New Orleans to 5.6 yppl (the Saints are averaging 6.4 yppl for the season). Miami is a strong running team, averaging 184 ground yards per game at 5.0 ypr, but the Jets defend the run better than average (4.3 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.7 ypr against an average team) and Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne doesn't appear ready for prime time after averaging just 3.1 yards per pass play in his first start last week against Buffalo. My math model projects just 237 total yards for Miami and favors the Jets by 9 1/2 points. However, there are some situations that are favoring Miami in this game, including a 176-98-5 ATS statistical indicator, and that will keep me from making the Jets a Best Bet, but I'll consider New York a Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or less.
Definitions:
ATS means Against The Spread
yprp is Yards per rushing play and does not include sacks
yppp is yards per pass play and does include sacks
3 Star Selection
DENVER (+3.5) 21 New England 16
11-Oct-09 01:15 PM Pacific Time
The Denver Broncos have made a believer out of me and they have played considerably better so far this season than the Patriots have. Despite that fact, the Broncos are once again a home underdog even after winning as such just last week over another overrated media darling (Dallas). Denver's defense is quick and aggressive under new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan and holding the Cowboys' explosive attack (averaging 6.5 yppl this season) to just 4.4 yards per play is an incredible feat and strong evidence that their 4-0 start is not a fluke. The Broncos have allowed just 4.1 yppl in those 4 wins against teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team. New England has the reputation of being an explosive offensive team but that just isn't the case with Tom Brady not looking anything close to his old self after missing last season. Brady has averaged a mediocre 6.1 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) and the Patriots are averaging a modest 5.3 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) and have not averaged more than 5.7 yppl in any game. The Pats faced just one better than average defensive team this season and gained just 4.5 yppl in a 9-16 loss at New York (no, Baltimore is not a better than average defensive team - just look at their stats). I just don't see Brady and company doing much damage against a Denver defense that is averaging 3.8 sacks per game while limiting opposing rushing attacks to only 3.3 ypr.
Denver's offense, while nothing special, actually has the same rating as the Pats' attack, averaging 5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team (and that does not include the fluke 87 yard tipped pass TD against Cincy in week 1, which I took out of my stats). The big difference in this game is defense, which Denver has plenty of and the Patriots don't. New England has given up 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average team. The Pats are just average against the pass and horrible against the run (4.7 ypr allowed), so Denver should be able to move the ball at a pretty good clip and score enough points to win.
My math model using only this year's games favors Denver by 9 1/2 points and my ratings, which weigh in my ratings prior to the season starting, favor the Broncos by 4 1/2 points. I suppose it's possible that Tom Brady suddenly turns into the incredible 2007 version of himself, when he averaged a ridiculous 7.8 yards per pass play. However, the math would still have Denver by 4 1/2 points using the Broncos' games from this season and my ratings would favor New England by just 1/2 a point. So, even if New England is as good as they can possibly be offensively they still shouldn't be favored in this game. Brady has averaged 6.5 yppp in his career, so it's very unlikely that he'll play at his incredible 2007 level. Even if the true line were pick, then Denver would have a 58% chance of covering at +3 and a 62% chance of covering at +3 1/2.
Over the years I've learned that 4 games is enough to tell me pretty much how good a team is and the public always has a tough time believing that a team that wasn't supposed to be very good can be as good as they've looked the first few weeks. Thus, the odds makers are slow to react to the reality while clinging to the perception that those teams can't possibly be that good. I've uncovered an interesting trend that illustrates my point. Teams that are 3-0 or 4-0 straight up that are at home and favored by 4 points or less or getting points are 27-7 ATS since 1980, including a perfect 18-0 ATS if their opponent is not in their division (division foes have more knowledge about personnel and also tend to get more fired up). Last year the team that fit that trend was the Tennessee Titans, who weren't expected to be that good and went on to a 13-3 record. That trend tabbed Denver last week over Dallas and the Broncos are still underrated. If they win this game then I think people will really start to believe (which is why that unbeaten angle doesn't work as well from week 6 on). I already believe in the Broncos and I also know how mediocre the Patriots are. Denver also applies to a very good 102-37-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator.
I'll take Denver in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 2-Stars as a dog of less than 3 points.
NFL Strong Opinions
KANSAS CITY (+8.5) 21 Dallas 24
11-Oct-09 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Dallas is not a good team. The Cowboys are still a good offensive team (although not as good with breakaway back Felix Jones shelved), but their defense is a mess. The Cowboys have allowed 6.1 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would average only 5.1 yppl against an average team and that unit is actually worse than Kansas City's offense, which is 0.8 yppl worse than average (4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team). What makes the Cowboys mediocre is an offense that has averaged 6.5 yppl (against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl to an average attack). Dallas is still 1.2 yppl better than average if you take out the stats of injured running back Felix Jones, who has 212 yards on 21 carries this year and has averaged an incredible 9.4 ypr on 51 career rushes. Kansas City is 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl), so the Cowboys should move the ball well, but my math model only favors Dallas by 9 points with Jones out.
I don't see the Cowboys getting fired up for a winless non-division opponent that has looked pathetic on offense (just 40 point total the last 3 games). In fact, horrible teams (win percentage less than .333) that have scored 17 points or fewer in 3 or more consecutive games are 95-39 ATS when facing a non-division foe (division foes aren't as likely to letdown) that does not have revenge (less likely to letdown with revenge). That angle is 43-14 ATS if the opponent is off a loss, so I'm not concerned about the Cowboys coming in here pissed off over last week's loss at Denver. I'd like to have some line value to play a game based on the situations, so I'll consider Kansas City a Strong Opinion at +7 1/2 points or more rather than making them a Best Bet. However, I'd take the Chiefs in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more.
NY Jets (-1.5) 20 MIAMI 13
12-Oct-09 05:30 PM Pacific Time
Despite last week's loss to the NFL's best team in New Orleans, the Jets still look like a legitimate playoff team led by a very good defense that has allowed just 4.5 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit. That includes holding good offensive teams Houston to just 3.8 yppl, New England to just 4.5 yppl, and New Orleans to 5.6 yppl (the Saints are averaging 6.4 yppl for the season). Miami is a strong running team, averaging 184 ground yards per game at 5.0 ypr, but the Jets defend the run better than average (4.3 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.7 ypr against an average team) and Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne doesn't appear ready for prime time after averaging just 3.1 yards per pass play in his first start last week against Buffalo. My math model projects just 237 total yards for Miami and favors the Jets by 9 1/2 points. However, there are some situations that are favoring Miami in this game, including a 176-98-5 ATS statistical indicator, and that will keep me from making the Jets a Best Bet, but I'll consider New York a Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or less.
Definitions:
ATS means Against The Spread
yprp is Yards per rushing play and does not include sacks
yppp is yards per pass play and does include sacks
