NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP
BALT VS MIAMI
A year ago MIA beat these Ravens for their only win of the year. Cam Cameron was fired by MIA then hired to be the Ravens OC. LY these teams comb for a SU record of 6-26 (8-22-2 ATS). What a difference these 2 rookie HC have made as these 2 comb for a record of 22-10 SU & 20-12 ATS TY. In their earlier meeting TY (Wk 7) BAL OC Cameron was thrilled coming away with a 27-13 win with scoring drives of 42, 67, 67 & 68 vs his former tm. The yardage was basically even as MIA finished with a 359-357 edge. BAL finished with a 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS record on the road incl that MIA gm. The Dolphins went 5-3 SU but only 2-6 ATS at home. They’ve met only 2 common foes in OAK & HOU. BAL went 2-0 SU & ATS winning by a combined 70-23 while MIA went 1-1 SU & ATS outscoring them by ONE point (45-44). BAL finished with a 3-5 (4-4 ATS) record vs winning teams while MIA was 2-4 SU/ATS. While both are headed up by inexperienced postseason HC’s they have plenty of experience on previous staffs in assistant roles.
The Ravens surprised many by this playoff appearance but if you check out the preseason issue of Power Sweep you’ll see that we projected them as a playoff team although we picked them to win the division. The season started with a pair of easy wins vs CIN & CLE & then 3 straight losses to playoff bound PIT, TEN & IND. Flacco avg’d 169 ypg (63%) with a 1-7 ratio but he was named the starter as Cameron was impressed by his intangibles. BAL then won 7 of the next 8 with the only loss being a trip to the NYG. Over the rest of the year Flacco avg’d 193 ypg (59%) with a 13-5 ratio. One concern is a comp % which has dropped from 67% in Oct to 59% in Nov & 47% in Dec. The OL was a concern coming into the season & while only being avg in talent they were well coached & exceeded expectations. It is RB by committee as McClain leads the team with 902 (3.9) as McGahee (671, 3.9) & Rice (454, 4.2) were bothered by inj’s. Flacco quickly made Mason his go to target catching the go ahead TD vs DAL with just 1 arm. Clayton is the deep threat with a 17.0 ypc. TE Heap was healthy but his numbers dropped as he was kept in to help the OL. As you might expect with a rookie QB there are many checkdowns & the 3 RB’s combined for 74 rec. If you think of the Ravens you think of defense & that was certainly what got them here. BAL finished with the #2 defense & the #3 scoring D. They held 11 foes to 13 or less & the NYG are the only team which gained over 92 yds rushing. The 3-4 defense has an elite front 7 with NT Ngata becoming a top 5 NT in the NFL. LB Lewis reinvented himself in 2008 remaining the defensive leader while both OLB/DE Suggs & Scott are playing at a PB level. Ed Reed is again making big plays in the secondary with 9 int’s & Rolle bounced back from a bad 2007. BAL our #22 special teams unit as they haven’t gotten much out of the return units TY.
The Dolphins completed the best one year turnaround in NFL history going from 1 to 11 wins & winning the AFC East. The coaching staff & front office had a gift fall into their laps when they were able to sign Chad Pennington after the Jets dumped him. Pennington became the instant leader the team needed & was helped out by a franchise LT in Jake Long being in place to start camp along with a healthy Ronnie Brown. Pennington had a career year with 8 games of 70%+ completion rate peaking in Dec where he avg’d 193 ypg (74%) with an 8-1 ratio. Brown bounced back from LY’s ACL injury & combined with Ricky Williams for an avg 98 ypg (4.2). Brown also showed his versatility with the Wildcat Offense which gave NE & SD fits. Ted Ginn had a bit of a breakout season leading the team with 790 yds rec (14.1) but the best WR, Greg Camarillo, is on IR. Davone Bess (54, 10.3) stepped up after Camarillo’s injury with TE Fasano being a solid blocking/receiving option. MIA OL has allowed 26 sacks TY but the took a big hit when LG Smiley landed on IR with a broken leg. LY MIA’s defense only pulled in 30 sacks but thanks to an impressive year by LB Porter (17.5) they pulled in 40 TY. MIA released some longtime vets to get younger & after allowing 154 ypg (4.5) LY they improved to 101 ypg (4.2) on the ground. MIA is vulnerable to the pass (25th) but have a respectable 18-18 ratio & 7.0 ypa TY. MIA has a glaring weakness on special teams (#32) as the back end of the roster hasn’t caught up to the top allowing 13.1 on PR’s & 24.3 on KR’s.
Both teams are great stories as relatively unknown HC came into the programs & got these NFL players
to “buy” into their system. MIA is a prime example of Turnover=Turnaround as LY they were -7 TO’s & TY they went +17 getting them into the playoffs. Flacco stepped into a great system with an outstanding OC in Cameron backed up by a physical & relentless defense. BAL’s offense has gone from a liability to a positive in 2008. While we respect the work MIA has done TY they have overachieved vs a weak schedule. Defense wins playoff games & look for BAL to bring a higher level of intensity here.
FORECAST: BALTIMORE BY 7 RATING: 1★
PHILLY VS MINNY
This is MIN’s 1st playoff game S/’04 & 1st Division Title S/’00. This will be the Eagles 15th playoff game under Andy Reid (8-6 SU & 9-5 ATS) as he faces his former OC Brad Childress. PHI beat MIN 23-16 as a 1 pt AF LY as the Vikings were without Travaris Jackson (brkn finger). Up 20-10 the Eagles KO’d MIN’s #2 QB Holcomb & Brooks Bollinger was able to lead the team to 32 & 48 yd FG’s while PHI hit a 25 yd FG. PHI had a 385-256 yd edge as McNabb had 333 yds passing (64%) with a TD. MIN was able to hold RB Westbrook to 92 ttl yds (3.7) while Peterson had 70 yds rush (3.5) on the day. PHI is 3-4-1 SU & 4-4 ATS on the road TY outgaining foes 335-271 (-5 TO’s) with a 21-21 avg score. MIN is 6-2 SU & 3-5 ATS at home TY outgaining foes 324-301 with a 24-21 avg score. CHI, ATL, NYG, & ARZ are the common foes with PHI going 3-2 SU & ATS (368-293 yd edge, 29-22 avg score). MIN is 3-2 SU & ATS with a 378-290 yd edge & 29-24 avg score. MIN is 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS vs foes with a winning record while PHI is 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS. PHI has a sizeable edge with playoff experience on the roster & Reid is 4-1 ATS on the road in the post season.
The core of the PHI offense remains Donovan McNabb & Brian Westbrook & both went thru a trying year. McNabb was benched vs BAL after struggling vs CIN & getting nothing done vs the Ravens #2 D in the 1H. Since then he’s avg’d 229 ypg (64%) with a 9-1 ratio going 4-1 SU & ATS. Westbrook has been dealing with rib/knee/ankle inj’s & a year after six 100 yd rushing gms he has just 3 TY. PHI’s offense has been boosted by a better receiving unit & 6 players have 30 or more yds rec in 2008. Rookie DeSean Jackson leads the team in rec & rec yds & is a very potent weapon on special teams. Westbrook is 2nd on the team in rec’s as Reid is the most pass dependant coach in the NFL. LY’s PHI offense struggled without TE LJ Smith as he split coverage in the middle of the field. Baskett is the possession WR & Curtis is a speed threat but he has missed half the season with inj. PHI’s OL is better suited to pass blocking (23 sks all’d) but the OT’s are very long in the tooth. PHI lost RG Jean-Giles & have been working with Nick Cole who has 6 career starts the L4W. PHI has been weak at the POA in short ydg situations (ie goal line vs CHI). PHI’s DL has great chemistry starting all 16 TY holding 11 tms to under 88 yds rush (3.0) though they did give up 200+ yds to WAS & NYG. DC Johnson believes in bringing pressure from everywhere & 15 players have at least 1 sk. PHI’s LB’s are fast & flow to the ball well but the WLB spot is the weak point here. PHI invested heavily in CB Samuel TY to give them a very deep secondary & teams have comp just 54% of their passes with a 6.1 ypa with a 19-15 ratio. PHI has our #20 spec tms TY as DeSean Jackson has cooled a bit after a strong start & David Akers has cost them in several games.
MIN HC Brad Childress would like to run a more balanced offense but the reality of Travaris Jackson stumbling early in the season forced him to go back & put the onus on the rushing game again in ‘08. MIN went 8-3 SU & 5-6 ATS under Gus Frerotte who was KO’d with a back inj vs DET. Jackson returned & has avg’d 212 ypg (62%) with a 7-1 ratio in his 3 starts since. Adrian Peterson (176, 4.8) won the NFL rushing title for ‘08 & is a serious MVP candidate. Chester Taylor comes in for obvious passing situations as Peterson still has issues in picking up blitzes. While 4 players have 40 or more rec’s for MIN none have 1,000 yds with Bernard Berrian being closest with 964 (20.1!!). Bobby Wade is the poss WR & Taylor’s versatility shines with 45 rec (8.9). MIN has an outstanding blocking TE in Kleinsasser with Shiancoe becoming a reliable weapon in the passing game. MIN’s OL gave up 43 sks TY partially due to Frerotte lacking mobility & the line not having LT McKinnie for the 1st 4 games (susp). MIN has the best run stopping defense in the NFL allowing 77 ypg (3.3) thanks to a DL that has 3 Pro Bowlers in Jared Allen, Kevin Williams & Pat Williams. MIN is hoping that Pat Williams (shldr) will be available here as he ties up the most OL enabling the rest to create pressure. MIN relies on larger LB’s to help stuff the run & haven’t fully recovered from losing MLB Henderson & are vulnerable to speedy RB/TE. MIN does give up yds in the pass gm (19th) as teams avoid the DL but they have a respectable 15-12 ratio with a 7.1 ypa. MIN has our #31 special teams as they have given up 4 PR’s TD’s with a 14.9 avg TY.
MIN will start QB Jackson here who just faced the Giants who run the same pressure D that the Eagles do. While PHI played a great game vs DAL many scores came via 5 TO’s that set up 27 pts. Reid gets a favorable matchup with Westbrook vs the MIN LB’s & Childress will try to feed the ball to Peterson to control the clock and make a young QB from making mistakes. Both teams have solid defenses & look for a lower scoring game.
FORECAST: Eagles/Vikings Under 43 RATING: 2★
BALT VS MIAMI
A year ago MIA beat these Ravens for their only win of the year. Cam Cameron was fired by MIA then hired to be the Ravens OC. LY these teams comb for a SU record of 6-26 (8-22-2 ATS). What a difference these 2 rookie HC have made as these 2 comb for a record of 22-10 SU & 20-12 ATS TY. In their earlier meeting TY (Wk 7) BAL OC Cameron was thrilled coming away with a 27-13 win with scoring drives of 42, 67, 67 & 68 vs his former tm. The yardage was basically even as MIA finished with a 359-357 edge. BAL finished with a 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS record on the road incl that MIA gm. The Dolphins went 5-3 SU but only 2-6 ATS at home. They’ve met only 2 common foes in OAK & HOU. BAL went 2-0 SU & ATS winning by a combined 70-23 while MIA went 1-1 SU & ATS outscoring them by ONE point (45-44). BAL finished with a 3-5 (4-4 ATS) record vs winning teams while MIA was 2-4 SU/ATS. While both are headed up by inexperienced postseason HC’s they have plenty of experience on previous staffs in assistant roles.
The Ravens surprised many by this playoff appearance but if you check out the preseason issue of Power Sweep you’ll see that we projected them as a playoff team although we picked them to win the division. The season started with a pair of easy wins vs CIN & CLE & then 3 straight losses to playoff bound PIT, TEN & IND. Flacco avg’d 169 ypg (63%) with a 1-7 ratio but he was named the starter as Cameron was impressed by his intangibles. BAL then won 7 of the next 8 with the only loss being a trip to the NYG. Over the rest of the year Flacco avg’d 193 ypg (59%) with a 13-5 ratio. One concern is a comp % which has dropped from 67% in Oct to 59% in Nov & 47% in Dec. The OL was a concern coming into the season & while only being avg in talent they were well coached & exceeded expectations. It is RB by committee as McClain leads the team with 902 (3.9) as McGahee (671, 3.9) & Rice (454, 4.2) were bothered by inj’s. Flacco quickly made Mason his go to target catching the go ahead TD vs DAL with just 1 arm. Clayton is the deep threat with a 17.0 ypc. TE Heap was healthy but his numbers dropped as he was kept in to help the OL. As you might expect with a rookie QB there are many checkdowns & the 3 RB’s combined for 74 rec. If you think of the Ravens you think of defense & that was certainly what got them here. BAL finished with the #2 defense & the #3 scoring D. They held 11 foes to 13 or less & the NYG are the only team which gained over 92 yds rushing. The 3-4 defense has an elite front 7 with NT Ngata becoming a top 5 NT in the NFL. LB Lewis reinvented himself in 2008 remaining the defensive leader while both OLB/DE Suggs & Scott are playing at a PB level. Ed Reed is again making big plays in the secondary with 9 int’s & Rolle bounced back from a bad 2007. BAL our #22 special teams unit as they haven’t gotten much out of the return units TY.
The Dolphins completed the best one year turnaround in NFL history going from 1 to 11 wins & winning the AFC East. The coaching staff & front office had a gift fall into their laps when they were able to sign Chad Pennington after the Jets dumped him. Pennington became the instant leader the team needed & was helped out by a franchise LT in Jake Long being in place to start camp along with a healthy Ronnie Brown. Pennington had a career year with 8 games of 70%+ completion rate peaking in Dec where he avg’d 193 ypg (74%) with an 8-1 ratio. Brown bounced back from LY’s ACL injury & combined with Ricky Williams for an avg 98 ypg (4.2). Brown also showed his versatility with the Wildcat Offense which gave NE & SD fits. Ted Ginn had a bit of a breakout season leading the team with 790 yds rec (14.1) but the best WR, Greg Camarillo, is on IR. Davone Bess (54, 10.3) stepped up after Camarillo’s injury with TE Fasano being a solid blocking/receiving option. MIA OL has allowed 26 sacks TY but the took a big hit when LG Smiley landed on IR with a broken leg. LY MIA’s defense only pulled in 30 sacks but thanks to an impressive year by LB Porter (17.5) they pulled in 40 TY. MIA released some longtime vets to get younger & after allowing 154 ypg (4.5) LY they improved to 101 ypg (4.2) on the ground. MIA is vulnerable to the pass (25th) but have a respectable 18-18 ratio & 7.0 ypa TY. MIA has a glaring weakness on special teams (#32) as the back end of the roster hasn’t caught up to the top allowing 13.1 on PR’s & 24.3 on KR’s.
Both teams are great stories as relatively unknown HC came into the programs & got these NFL players
to “buy” into their system. MIA is a prime example of Turnover=Turnaround as LY they were -7 TO’s & TY they went +17 getting them into the playoffs. Flacco stepped into a great system with an outstanding OC in Cameron backed up by a physical & relentless defense. BAL’s offense has gone from a liability to a positive in 2008. While we respect the work MIA has done TY they have overachieved vs a weak schedule. Defense wins playoff games & look for BAL to bring a higher level of intensity here.
FORECAST: BALTIMORE BY 7 RATING: 1★
PHILLY VS MINNY
This is MIN’s 1st playoff game S/’04 & 1st Division Title S/’00. This will be the Eagles 15th playoff game under Andy Reid (8-6 SU & 9-5 ATS) as he faces his former OC Brad Childress. PHI beat MIN 23-16 as a 1 pt AF LY as the Vikings were without Travaris Jackson (brkn finger). Up 20-10 the Eagles KO’d MIN’s #2 QB Holcomb & Brooks Bollinger was able to lead the team to 32 & 48 yd FG’s while PHI hit a 25 yd FG. PHI had a 385-256 yd edge as McNabb had 333 yds passing (64%) with a TD. MIN was able to hold RB Westbrook to 92 ttl yds (3.7) while Peterson had 70 yds rush (3.5) on the day. PHI is 3-4-1 SU & 4-4 ATS on the road TY outgaining foes 335-271 (-5 TO’s) with a 21-21 avg score. MIN is 6-2 SU & 3-5 ATS at home TY outgaining foes 324-301 with a 24-21 avg score. CHI, ATL, NYG, & ARZ are the common foes with PHI going 3-2 SU & ATS (368-293 yd edge, 29-22 avg score). MIN is 3-2 SU & ATS with a 378-290 yd edge & 29-24 avg score. MIN is 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS vs foes with a winning record while PHI is 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS. PHI has a sizeable edge with playoff experience on the roster & Reid is 4-1 ATS on the road in the post season.
The core of the PHI offense remains Donovan McNabb & Brian Westbrook & both went thru a trying year. McNabb was benched vs BAL after struggling vs CIN & getting nothing done vs the Ravens #2 D in the 1H. Since then he’s avg’d 229 ypg (64%) with a 9-1 ratio going 4-1 SU & ATS. Westbrook has been dealing with rib/knee/ankle inj’s & a year after six 100 yd rushing gms he has just 3 TY. PHI’s offense has been boosted by a better receiving unit & 6 players have 30 or more yds rec in 2008. Rookie DeSean Jackson leads the team in rec & rec yds & is a very potent weapon on special teams. Westbrook is 2nd on the team in rec’s as Reid is the most pass dependant coach in the NFL. LY’s PHI offense struggled without TE LJ Smith as he split coverage in the middle of the field. Baskett is the possession WR & Curtis is a speed threat but he has missed half the season with inj. PHI’s OL is better suited to pass blocking (23 sks all’d) but the OT’s are very long in the tooth. PHI lost RG Jean-Giles & have been working with Nick Cole who has 6 career starts the L4W. PHI has been weak at the POA in short ydg situations (ie goal line vs CHI). PHI’s DL has great chemistry starting all 16 TY holding 11 tms to under 88 yds rush (3.0) though they did give up 200+ yds to WAS & NYG. DC Johnson believes in bringing pressure from everywhere & 15 players have at least 1 sk. PHI’s LB’s are fast & flow to the ball well but the WLB spot is the weak point here. PHI invested heavily in CB Samuel TY to give them a very deep secondary & teams have comp just 54% of their passes with a 6.1 ypa with a 19-15 ratio. PHI has our #20 spec tms TY as DeSean Jackson has cooled a bit after a strong start & David Akers has cost them in several games.
MIN HC Brad Childress would like to run a more balanced offense but the reality of Travaris Jackson stumbling early in the season forced him to go back & put the onus on the rushing game again in ‘08. MIN went 8-3 SU & 5-6 ATS under Gus Frerotte who was KO’d with a back inj vs DET. Jackson returned & has avg’d 212 ypg (62%) with a 7-1 ratio in his 3 starts since. Adrian Peterson (176, 4.8) won the NFL rushing title for ‘08 & is a serious MVP candidate. Chester Taylor comes in for obvious passing situations as Peterson still has issues in picking up blitzes. While 4 players have 40 or more rec’s for MIN none have 1,000 yds with Bernard Berrian being closest with 964 (20.1!!). Bobby Wade is the poss WR & Taylor’s versatility shines with 45 rec (8.9). MIN has an outstanding blocking TE in Kleinsasser with Shiancoe becoming a reliable weapon in the passing game. MIN’s OL gave up 43 sks TY partially due to Frerotte lacking mobility & the line not having LT McKinnie for the 1st 4 games (susp). MIN has the best run stopping defense in the NFL allowing 77 ypg (3.3) thanks to a DL that has 3 Pro Bowlers in Jared Allen, Kevin Williams & Pat Williams. MIN is hoping that Pat Williams (shldr) will be available here as he ties up the most OL enabling the rest to create pressure. MIN relies on larger LB’s to help stuff the run & haven’t fully recovered from losing MLB Henderson & are vulnerable to speedy RB/TE. MIN does give up yds in the pass gm (19th) as teams avoid the DL but they have a respectable 15-12 ratio with a 7.1 ypa. MIN has our #31 special teams as they have given up 4 PR’s TD’s with a 14.9 avg TY.
MIN will start QB Jackson here who just faced the Giants who run the same pressure D that the Eagles do. While PHI played a great game vs DAL many scores came via 5 TO’s that set up 27 pts. Reid gets a favorable matchup with Westbrook vs the MIN LB’s & Childress will try to feed the ball to Peterson to control the clock and make a young QB from making mistakes. Both teams have solid defenses & look for a lower scoring game.
FORECAST: Eagles/Vikings Under 43 RATING: 2★
