Randall the Handle
MINNESOTA +3 over Philadelphia PINNACLE
Tough game indeed and what I don’t like is the fact that the Eagles blew out the Boys last week and had the most impressive finish in the last week of the year then any team. That always results in an inflated line and that’s something I’m just not comfortable endorsing. Yes, the Eagles look very tough indeed and a win here would surprise nobody. However, the Vikes could be getting overlooked here. They play great defense, they have an outstanding running game, they’ve had a tough schedule and they closed out the year by beating a game Giants squad that came to play. Remember, two weeks ago in a game they had to have at the time, the Eagles went into Washington and lost to the Skins. The Vikes play a very similar style to that of the Skins only Minnesota is better. I trust them to put pressure on McNab and we’ve seen this guy fold under that pressure in a big game time and time again. McNab is the most nonchalant player in the game and just doesn’t seem to get going when the going gets tough. The Vikes can definitely play with this team and I really don’t think they should be a three-point pooch in their own barn. Way too many people are on the Eagles here and that’s only because of a 44-6 thrashing of the Boys last week. Remember, down the stretch in late November, this same Eagle team lost in Baltimore 36-7 and tied in Cincinnati, 13-13 and if that’s not concerning, I don’t what is. Play: Minnesota +3 +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
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Baltimore -3½ over MIAMI
This one I’ll watch, as I like the Ravens but I’m just not comfortable laying road points to the Dolphins with a team that has trouble scoring. Having said that, I also believe that the Fish could have loads of problems moving the ball and what scares me the most about playing the Dolphins is that they have players that have a propensity for fumbling the ball. The Ravens aggressively try and strip the rock on every play and there’s just no chance of the Dolphins overcoming turnovers. I also like the arm and poise of Joe Flacco and one cannot discuss the Ravens without mentioning its fearsome defense. Look, the Fish had a great year and a great season and because the offense of the Ravens is average, the Dolphins could sneak out a win. But with all things being equal, the Ravens are simply the better team and in playoff football, the better team will usually come out on top. Still, I just can’t lay the 3½-ponts on the road and thus, I’ll watch this one from the rail. Play: Baltimore –3½ (No bets).
MINNESOTA +3 over Philadelphia PINNACLE
Tough game indeed and what I don’t like is the fact that the Eagles blew out the Boys last week and had the most impressive finish in the last week of the year then any team. That always results in an inflated line and that’s something I’m just not comfortable endorsing. Yes, the Eagles look very tough indeed and a win here would surprise nobody. However, the Vikes could be getting overlooked here. They play great defense, they have an outstanding running game, they’ve had a tough schedule and they closed out the year by beating a game Giants squad that came to play. Remember, two weeks ago in a game they had to have at the time, the Eagles went into Washington and lost to the Skins. The Vikes play a very similar style to that of the Skins only Minnesota is better. I trust them to put pressure on McNab and we’ve seen this guy fold under that pressure in a big game time and time again. McNab is the most nonchalant player in the game and just doesn’t seem to get going when the going gets tough. The Vikes can definitely play with this team and I really don’t think they should be a three-point pooch in their own barn. Way too many people are on the Eagles here and that’s only because of a 44-6 thrashing of the Boys last week. Remember, down the stretch in late November, this same Eagle team lost in Baltimore 36-7 and tied in Cincinnati, 13-13 and if that’s not concerning, I don’t what is. Play: Minnesota +3 +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
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Baltimore -3½ over MIAMI
This one I’ll watch, as I like the Ravens but I’m just not comfortable laying road points to the Dolphins with a team that has trouble scoring. Having said that, I also believe that the Fish could have loads of problems moving the ball and what scares me the most about playing the Dolphins is that they have players that have a propensity for fumbling the ball. The Ravens aggressively try and strip the rock on every play and there’s just no chance of the Dolphins overcoming turnovers. I also like the arm and poise of Joe Flacco and one cannot discuss the Ravens without mentioning its fearsome defense. Look, the Fish had a great year and a great season and because the offense of the Ravens is average, the Dolphins could sneak out a win. But with all things being equal, the Ravens are simply the better team and in playoff football, the better team will usually come out on top. Still, I just can’t lay the 3½-ponts on the road and thus, I’ll watch this one from the rail. Play: Baltimore –3½ (No bets).
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Wild Card Weekend
Sunday, January 4th, 1:00 p.m. est.
Baltimore (11-5) at Miami (11-5)
Miami Dolphins +3½
Baltimore has won five of their last six games and two of the last three meetings against the Dolphins, including a 27-13 win in Miami in Week 7. Meanwhile, the surprising Dolphins ended the regular season winning their last five games. Miami has improved since their last battle with Baltimore. Take the hungry Dolphins in a close hard fought battle against the 2nd best defense in the NFL. The Ravens are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite.
Sunday, January 4th, 4:30 p.m. est.
Philadelphia (9-6-1) at Minnesota (10-6)
Philadelphia Eagles -3
The Eagles have won and covered the spread in the last four meetings against Minnesota and will dominate this game with their passing game. Take the Eagles. The Vikings are a horrible 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
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Wild Card Weekend
Sunday, January 4th, 1:00 p.m. est.
Baltimore (11-5) at Miami (11-5)
Miami Dolphins +3½
Baltimore has won five of their last six games and two of the last three meetings against the Dolphins, including a 27-13 win in Miami in Week 7. Meanwhile, the surprising Dolphins ended the regular season winning their last five games. Miami has improved since their last battle with Baltimore. Take the hungry Dolphins in a close hard fought battle against the 2nd best defense in the NFL. The Ravens are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite.
Sunday, January 4th, 4:30 p.m. est.
Philadelphia (9-6-1) at Minnesota (10-6)
Philadelphia Eagles -3
The Eagles have won and covered the spread in the last four meetings against Minnesota and will dominate this game with their passing game. Take the Eagles. The Vikings are a horrible 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
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SUNSHINE FORECAST
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Miami Dolphins [AFC Wild Card]
Power Rating Projection:
Baltimore Ravens 24 Miami Dolphins 20
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Miami Dolphins 26 Baltimore Ravens 21
Miami Dolphins (1 star)
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Minnesota Vikings [NFC Wild Card]
Power Rating Projection:
Minnesota Vikings 22 Philadelphia Eagles 21
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Minnesota Vikings 21 Philadelphia Eagles 16
Minnesota Vikings (1 star)
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Miami Dolphins [AFC Wild Card]
Power Rating Projection:
Baltimore Ravens 24 Miami Dolphins 20
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Miami Dolphins 26 Baltimore Ravens 21
Miami Dolphins (1 star)
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Minnesota Vikings [NFC Wild Card]
Power Rating Projection:
Minnesota Vikings 22 Philadelphia Eagles 21
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Minnesota Vikings 21 Philadelphia Eagles 16
Minnesota Vikings (1 star)
Jimmy Boyd
5* NFC Wild Card GOTY on Vikes +3
Let's be completely honest, the Eagles are very very lucky to be in the postseason. They did win 4 of their last 5 games but everything else had to happen perfectly to get them in. The Eagles are just a 3-4 team on the road this season where their offense has struggled. The Vikes have won 5 of 6 down the stretch, including a confidence boosting win over the reigning Super Bowl champs in their season finale. Minnesota is 6-2 in home games where its defense has been outstanding. Plays on home teams (MINNESOTA) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two good offensive teams (23-27 PPG) are 34-9 ATS since 1983. The Eagles are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less and 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 3 points or less. We'll pound the Vikes.
4* Major Sunday AFC Wild Card BEST BET on Dolphins +3.5
Since losing to Baltimore in mid-October, the Dolphins won 9 of their final 10 games to close out the season. I don't read much into Miami's earlier season loss to the Ravens because I feel it is key that the Dolphins will be playing with the veteran signal caller Chad Pennington on their side while the Ravens go to battle with a rookie. Experience counts for a lot in the playoff at the QB spot and it will be the deciding factor here. The Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this matchup. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in January and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite. Take the points.
5* NFC Wild Card GOTY on Vikes +3
Let's be completely honest, the Eagles are very very lucky to be in the postseason. They did win 4 of their last 5 games but everything else had to happen perfectly to get them in. The Eagles are just a 3-4 team on the road this season where their offense has struggled. The Vikes have won 5 of 6 down the stretch, including a confidence boosting win over the reigning Super Bowl champs in their season finale. Minnesota is 6-2 in home games where its defense has been outstanding. Plays on home teams (MINNESOTA) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two good offensive teams (23-27 PPG) are 34-9 ATS since 1983. The Eagles are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less and 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 3 points or less. We'll pound the Vikes.
4* Major Sunday AFC Wild Card BEST BET on Dolphins +3.5
Since losing to Baltimore in mid-October, the Dolphins won 9 of their final 10 games to close out the season. I don't read much into Miami's earlier season loss to the Ravens because I feel it is key that the Dolphins will be playing with the veteran signal caller Chad Pennington on their side while the Ravens go to battle with a rookie. Experience counts for a lot in the playoff at the QB spot and it will be the deciding factor here. The Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this matchup. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in January and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite. Take the points.
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
Baltimore (11-5, 12-4 ATS) at Miami (11-5, 8-8 ATS)
Two of the hottest teams in the league square off for the second time this season as the AFC East champion Dolphins, winners of five in a row, play host to the sixth-seeded Ravens, who won five of their last six games.
Miami knocked off the Jets 24-17 as a three-point road pup to help boot New York out of the playoffs and claim the division title, completing a worst-to-first turnaround after a 1-15 season in 2007, tying an NFL record. QB Chad Pennington (22 of 30, 200 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had a solid outing, with his one fumble accounting for Miami’s lone turnover, while the Dolphins defense picked off Jets QB Brett Favre three times and recovered a fumble. Miami finished on a 3-1 ATS surge.
Baltimore ripped Jacksonville 27-7 as a healthy 10-point home chalk, improving to 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six contests, and the SU winner is now 25-2 ATS in the Ravens’ last 27 games, including 15-1 ATS this season. Rookie QB Joe Flacco (17 of 23, 297 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) had a strong effort presiding over a turnover-free offense, and WR Mark Clayton had four catches for 128 yards. Baltimore forced four turnovers, including two Ed Reed INTs, helping clinch the AFC’s final playoff spot.
Baltimore went to Miami on Oct. 19 and claimed a 27-13 road win as a three-point road underdog, slowing a 3-1 SU and ATS run by Miami in this rivalry. The underdog has cashed in the last four clashes between these two, including the Dolphins’ 22-16 overtime win over the Ravens as a 3½-point home pup last December. Miami’s only victory of 2007.
Miami averaged 21.6 points (21st) and 345.6 total yards (12th) per game, with the league’s 10th-best passing attack (227 ypg) and 11th-rated running game (118.6 ypg). Pennington showed he still has some gas in his tank, completing 67.4 percent of his passes for 3,653 yards (ninth), with 19 TDs against just seven INTs. In fact, the Dolphins set a league record for a 16-game season with just 13 turnovers, beating the mark of 14 set by the Giants in 1990. RBs Ronnie Brown (916 yards, 10 TDs) and Ricky Williams (659 yards, 4 TDs) paced the ground attack.
Miami ranked eighth in scoring defense (19.8 ppg) and 15th in total defense (329 ypg). And helped by an offense that held onto the ball so well, the Dolphins finished with a plus-17 turnover differential.
Baltimore averaged 24.1 ppg (11th) and 324 ypg (18th), but they had the league’s fourth-best ground attack at 148.5 ypg, with Le’Ron McClain (902 yards, 10 TDs) and Willis McGahee (671 yards, 7 TDs) combining for 1,573 yards. Flacco wasn’t afraid to tuck the ball and run, as well, with 52 attempts for 152 yards and two TDs, and the rookie completed 60 percent of his passes for 2,971 yards and 14 TDs, though he had 12 INTs.
Defensively, Baltimore ranked second in yards allowed, at a stingy 261.1 per game, and third in scoring (15.2 ppg). With Reed’s league-leading nine INTs paving the way, the Ravens finished at plus-13 in turnover differential.
The Dolphins cashed in just two of their eight home games this season and are on further ATS slides of 4-9-1 as a home pup, 11-24-1 after a spread-cover and 17-35-1 in their last 53 home games; however, they are on pointspread rolls of 6-1 overall as an underdog, 4-1 against winning teams and 8-3 against AFC opponents
The Ravens, meanwhile, carry several positive ATS trends, including 6-1 as a chalk, 6-1 against the AFC, 5-1 on the highway, 4-1 in road playoff games, 8-2 after a SU win and 6-2 after a pointspread win. The only negatives: Baltimore is on ATS dips of 0-5 in January games and 1-8 as a road chalk..
The under for Miami is on tears of 8-2 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-0 in wild-card playoff games, 7-1 overall in the playoffs and 5-1 with the Dolphins as a playoff pup. On the flip side, the over for the Ravens is on runs of 7-3-1 overall, 5-0-1 in roadies, 15-5-1 on grass and 13-5 against the AFC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Philadelphia (9-6-1, 10-6 ATS) at Minnesota (10-6, 6-10 ATS)
The Eagles, who won four of their last five games to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, head to the Metrodome to battle the NFC North champion Vikings, who are on a 5-1 SU run and back in the postseason for the first time since 2005.
In a game that sent the winner to the playoffs and the loser home, Philadelphia battered Dallas 44-6 last week as 2½-point home favorite, bouncing back nicely from a 10-3 loss at Washington as a 4 ½-point favorite. QB Donovan McNabb (12 of 21, 175 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had a turnover-free day against the Cowboys and ran for a TD, and the Eagles finished with just one turnover while forcing a whopping five turnovers, including an INT and two fumbles from Cowboys QB Tony Romo. The Eagles scored back-to-back defensive touchdowns on long fumble returns to start the third quarter.
Minnesota rallied to beat the top-seeded Giants 20-19 as a seven-point home chalk to secure the division title, getting a 50-yard field goal from Ryan Longwell in the final seconds to beat a New York squad that was resting or limiting several key players. QB Tarvaris Jackson (16 of 26, 239 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had a decent outing, despite committing the game’s lone turnover, and RB Adrian Peterson (21 carries, 103 yards) had a 67-yard TD jaunt. That helped the Vikes overcome a nearly nine-minute deficit in time of possession (34:19-25:41).
Philadelphia is on a 4-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, having held Minnesota to 17 points or less in all four games. Most recently, the Eagles won 23-16 as a one-point road ‘dog in October 2007. The favorite and the home team are 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes. The Vikings’ last postseason game came in Philadelphia in 2005, losing 27-14 as a 7½-point chalk.
Philly sports the league’s sixth-best scoring offense (26 ppg) and is ninth in total yards (350.5 per game), paced by the sixth-rated passing attack (244.4 ypg). McNabb completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 3,916 yards and 23 TDs, against 11 INTs. RB Brian Westbrook, despite being dinged up a few times during the season, still rushed for 936 yards (4.0 ypc) and nine TDs, and he had 54 catches for another 402 yards and five scores.
Philadelphia fielded one of the league’s best defenses, allowing per-game averages of 274.3 yards (third) and 18.1 points (fourth). The Eagles gave up just 182.1 passing ypg (third) and 92.2 rushing ypg (fourth), and they finished the year with a plus-3 turnover differential.
Minnesota averaged 23.7 points (12th) and 330.5 total ypg (17th), but they have the league’s fifth-best rushing attack at 145.8 ppg, led by Peterson, who won the NFL’s rushing title with 1,760 yards. The passing game nets just 184.8 ypg (25th) for the Vikings, who have gone back and forth this season between QBs Jackson and veteran Gus Frerotte, with Jackson now back in the starting role. Jackson, who started five games, completed 59.1 percent of his throws for 1,056 yards, with nine TDs and two INTs.
Minnesota led the league in rushing defense, allowing just 76.9 per game, and the Vikes ranked sixth in total defense (292.4 ypg) and 13th in scoring defense (20.8 ppg). However, the Vikings finished the season with a minus-6 turnover margin.
The Eagles are on ATS dips of 2-11-1 as a chalk of three points or less and 3-7-1 as a road favorite of any price, but they are otherwise on spread-covering streaks of 4-1 overall, 10-4 on the highway, 5-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 4-1 in the playoffs, 6-2 against the NFC and 7-3 against winning teams. On the flip side, the Vikings are on pointspread dives of 6-13 overall, 3-7 at the Metrodome, 0-4 getting three points or less at home, 1-4 as a home pup of any price and 2-9 after a SU win.
The under for Philadelphia is on rolls of 4-1 on the road, 40-16-5 as a favorite, 5-1-1 in the playoffs and 4-0-1 as a playoff chalk. And for Minnesota, the under is on stretches of 5-1 in January, 4-1-1 in playoff games and 26-12-1 coming off a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Illinois (13-1, 7-3 ATS) at (23) Michigan (10-3, 5-2-1 ATS)
Illinois brings a seven-game winning streak into Ann Arbor, Mich., for a Big Ten showdown with the Wolverines.
The Illini opened conference action with Tuesday’s 71-67 overtime win at Purdue, getting the victory as an eight-point underdog as four starters reached double-digits in scoring, led by Mike Tisdale’s 18 points. Illinois 2-0 SU and ATS in true roadies this season and an impressive 6-0 ATS in road or neutral-site games.
Michigan has been at home for six straight games (2-1 ATS) but dropped a 73-61 conference matchup to Wisconsin on Wednesday, falling as a 3½-point favorite. The Wolverines got 20 points and eight rebounds from Zack Novak but not much else from the rest of the team.
The home team has won six straight (5-1 ATS) in this series and eight of the last nine (8-1 ATS). Michigan got a 49-43 victory last year in Ann Arbor, cashing as a two-point ‘dog in late February. The home team is 15-2 ATS in the last 17 series clashes, and the Wolverines are 8-0 ATS in the last eight matchups in Michigan.
Illinois is on ATS runs of 4-1 overall and 6-2 after a straight-up win, but it is also on slides of 3-7 after a spread-cover and 2-7 on Sundays. Michigan is just 1-5 ATS in its last six Big Ten games, but the Wolverines are on positive ATS streaks of 5-2-1 overall, 4-1 at home and 4-1 on Sundays.
For the Fighting Illinii, the under is 47-22-1 in their last 70 games after a spread-cover and 20-6-1 in their last 27 Sunday contests. Michigan is on “over” runs of 7-2 on Sundays and 4-0 at home, but otherwise the under is 7-1 in its last eight Big Ten games and 6-0 in its last six after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN
Kentucky (11-3, 5-3-1 ATS) at (18) Louisville (8-3, 5-6 ATS)
The Cardinals will try to bounce back from a shocking loss inside Freedom Hall when they host Kentucky in this inter-state rivalry matchup.
Louisville, 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall, has lost two of three overall (1-2 ATS), including Wednesday’s 56-55 home setback to UNLV as a 13½-point favorite. The Cardinals shot 16-of-54 from the field against the Rebels, and they are hitting on just 43.3 percent of their shots this season.
Kentucky has won six straight (4-1 ATS) and crushed Central Michigan 84-52 on Monday, cashing as a 22-point home favorite. The Wildcats have scored 72 points or more in eight of their last nine games, and topped the century mark in two of those outings.
The road team has won four of the last five (SU and ATS) in this rivalry, with Louisville taking an 89-75 decision a year ago as a 1½-point favorite in Lexington. The last time these two met in Louisville was December 2006 when the Wildcats scored a 61-49 victory as 2½-point ‘dogs.
Kentucky is on positive pointspread streaks of 10-2-1 against Big East teams, 4-1 in non-conference action, 5-2 on Sundays and 4-1 after a straight-up win. Louisville is just 1-5 ATS in its last six overall, 1-4 ATS in its last five at home and 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games, but the Cardinals are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 after a non-cover and 8-1 ATS in their last nine Sunday games.
The Wildcats have topped the total in nine of their last 13 non-conference games and five of their last six after a spread-cover. Louisville is on “under” runs of 7-2 overall, 12-3 against teams from the SEC, 5-1 after a non-cover, 25-17-1 in non-conference action and 5-0 at home against teams with a winning road record. Finally, the under is 8-1 in the last nine matchups in this rivalry, including 4-0 in Freedom Hall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Boston College (12-2, 6-3 ATS) at (1) North Carolina (13-0, 5-6 ATS)
The top-ranked Tar Heels put their perfect record on the line when they open the ACC campaign inside the Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill, N.C., against Boston College.
The Eagles have rattled off nine straight wins (3-2 ATS) and beat Sacred Heart 89-76 on Wednesday in an unlined contest. This is Boston College’s first road contest since Dec. 6 when it went to UMass and scored an 85-81 overtime win, coming up just short as a 4½-point chalk.
North Carolina has not scored less than 77 points in any game this season and averages 93.2 per contest and shoot 50 percent from the floor. On defense, the Tar Heels allow 68.2 ppg and limit the opposition to 39.7 percent shooting from the floor. On Wednesday in Nevada, the Heels blew out the Wolf Pack 84-61 as an 18½-point favorite to end a four-game streak of failing to cover the number.
North Carolina has won the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-2 ATS), including a 91-69 blowout win at home last season, easily covering as an 18½-point chalk. The host has dominated this series, going 4-0 ATS over the last two years.
Boston College is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven roadies, but 5-1 ATS in its last six against teams with a winning record. North Carolina is on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 35-17 at home, 7-3 on Sundays and 39-15-1 after a spread-cover, but the Heels are just 1-4 ATS in their last five overall, 1-5 ATS in their last six against ACC foes and 1-5 ATS in their last six at home against teams with a losing road record.
For the Eagles, the over is 4-1 in their last five overall and 14-3 in their last 17 after a straight-up win, while the under is 7-1 in their last eight on the road and 5-2 in their last seven against ACC competition. It’s been all overs for North Carolina, including 4-0 at home, 12-2 on Sundays, 5-2-1 against ACC teams and 8-2-1 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA
(20) Arizona State (12-1, 6-3 ATS) at California (12-2, 8-3 ATS)
The Sun Devils are shooting for a Northern California sweep to open the Pac-10 campaign when they visit Haas Pavilion in Berkeley to take on Cal.
Arizona State demolished Stanford on Friday 90-60, winning outright as a one-point underdog, thanks to 31 points and 11 rebounds from Jeff Pendergraph. The Sun Devils have rattled off eight straight wins (4-1 ATS) and they are 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in away or neutral-site games this season.
California has won six straight games and comes off Friday’s 69-55 home win over Arizona as a 4½-point favorite. The Bears got 23 points, four rebounds and four assists from Patrick Christopher and got the win despite shooting just 28-of-60 from the field. The Bears are a perfect 10-0 SU (6-1 ATS) on their home court.
The road team is on an 8-0 SU and ATS roll in this series, and going back further, the visitor has covered the number in 14 of the last 16 clashes. Arizona State has won and cashed its last five trips to Berkeley, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings overall.
The Sun Devils are on ATS runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0-1 against Pac-10 foes, 5-2 on Sundays and 4-0-1 on the road against teams with a winning home mark. Cal is riding ATS streaks that include 5-0 at home, 4-0 after a straight-up win, 4-1 against the Pac-10 and 4-0 against teams with a winning record.
Arizona State has topped the total in six of its last seven overall and 10 of its last 12 against teams with a winning straight-up record, but the Sun Devils are on “under” runs of 17-8 on the road, 5-1 on Sundays and 6-1 following a spread-cover. The Bears have stayed under the total in four of their last five overall, but otherwise the team is on over stretches of 21-8 in Pac-10 action, 20-6-1 after a spread-cover and 7-0 against teams with a winning record. In this rivalry, the over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings overall, including 5-2 in the last seven battles at Haas Pavilion.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Portland (20-13, 16-17 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (26-5, 15-16 ATS)
The Lakers put their 14-game home winning streak on the line when they welcome the Trail Blazers to the Staples Center for a non-divisional showdown.
Portland is coming off Friday’s 92-77 home loss to New Orleans, getting blown out as a 1½-point underdog as star guard Brandon Roy missed his second straight game with an injury. The Blazers just finished a five-game homestand 3-2 SU and ATS and now go on the road where they are 8-9 SU and 6-11 ATS and average just 94.9 points per game while giving up 96.4.
Los Angeles has won five straight overall (4-1 ATS), including Friday’s 113-100 win over the Jazz, cashing as a 10-point favorite. The Lakers got 40 points and seven rebounds from Kobe Bryant as this team continues to dominate in Hollywood, averaging 109.6 points and 47.9 shooting at home while allowing 97.7 points per game.
The home team has won six straight in this series (3-3 ATS) and nine of the last 10 (5-5 ATS), including the Lakers’ 96-76 season-opening win as an eight-point chalk back on Oct. 28. Portland has gone 21-6 ATS in the last 27 meetings and had a nine-game spread-covering streak against L.A. snapped on opening night, making the Blazers 5-1 ATS in their last six games at Staples Center. Finally, the underdog has cashed in 22 of the last 27 matchups.
Portland is in a host of ATS slumps, including 4-10 overall, 0-6 on the road, 1-6 after a day off, 2-5 against the Western Conference and 2-6 against the Pacific Division. The Lakers have followed up a 10-game ATS losing skid by covering in their last four in a row, and they’re also 10-5 ATS in their last 15 against the Northwest Division. However, Los Angeles is on pointspread slides of 3-7 against the Western Conference, 3-7 on Sundays and 1-8 after one day off.
For the Blazers, the under is on streaks of 14-5 overall, 7-1 on the road, 48-22 against the Western Conference and 16-5 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Los Angeles is on “over” runs of 13-4 at home, 6-2 on Sundays, 7-3 against the Western Conference and 5-2 after a spread-cover. Finally, the under is 8-3 in the last 11 head-to-head matchups at Staples Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
Baltimore (11-5, 12-4 ATS) at Miami (11-5, 8-8 ATS)
Two of the hottest teams in the league square off for the second time this season as the AFC East champion Dolphins, winners of five in a row, play host to the sixth-seeded Ravens, who won five of their last six games.
Miami knocked off the Jets 24-17 as a three-point road pup to help boot New York out of the playoffs and claim the division title, completing a worst-to-first turnaround after a 1-15 season in 2007, tying an NFL record. QB Chad Pennington (22 of 30, 200 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had a solid outing, with his one fumble accounting for Miami’s lone turnover, while the Dolphins defense picked off Jets QB Brett Favre three times and recovered a fumble. Miami finished on a 3-1 ATS surge.
Baltimore ripped Jacksonville 27-7 as a healthy 10-point home chalk, improving to 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six contests, and the SU winner is now 25-2 ATS in the Ravens’ last 27 games, including 15-1 ATS this season. Rookie QB Joe Flacco (17 of 23, 297 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) had a strong effort presiding over a turnover-free offense, and WR Mark Clayton had four catches for 128 yards. Baltimore forced four turnovers, including two Ed Reed INTs, helping clinch the AFC’s final playoff spot.
Baltimore went to Miami on Oct. 19 and claimed a 27-13 road win as a three-point road underdog, slowing a 3-1 SU and ATS run by Miami in this rivalry. The underdog has cashed in the last four clashes between these two, including the Dolphins’ 22-16 overtime win over the Ravens as a 3½-point home pup last December. Miami’s only victory of 2007.
Miami averaged 21.6 points (21st) and 345.6 total yards (12th) per game, with the league’s 10th-best passing attack (227 ypg) and 11th-rated running game (118.6 ypg). Pennington showed he still has some gas in his tank, completing 67.4 percent of his passes for 3,653 yards (ninth), with 19 TDs against just seven INTs. In fact, the Dolphins set a league record for a 16-game season with just 13 turnovers, beating the mark of 14 set by the Giants in 1990. RBs Ronnie Brown (916 yards, 10 TDs) and Ricky Williams (659 yards, 4 TDs) paced the ground attack.
Miami ranked eighth in scoring defense (19.8 ppg) and 15th in total defense (329 ypg). And helped by an offense that held onto the ball so well, the Dolphins finished with a plus-17 turnover differential.
Baltimore averaged 24.1 ppg (11th) and 324 ypg (18th), but they had the league’s fourth-best ground attack at 148.5 ypg, with Le’Ron McClain (902 yards, 10 TDs) and Willis McGahee (671 yards, 7 TDs) combining for 1,573 yards. Flacco wasn’t afraid to tuck the ball and run, as well, with 52 attempts for 152 yards and two TDs, and the rookie completed 60 percent of his passes for 2,971 yards and 14 TDs, though he had 12 INTs.
Defensively, Baltimore ranked second in yards allowed, at a stingy 261.1 per game, and third in scoring (15.2 ppg). With Reed’s league-leading nine INTs paving the way, the Ravens finished at plus-13 in turnover differential.
The Dolphins cashed in just two of their eight home games this season and are on further ATS slides of 4-9-1 as a home pup, 11-24-1 after a spread-cover and 17-35-1 in their last 53 home games; however, they are on pointspread rolls of 6-1 overall as an underdog, 4-1 against winning teams and 8-3 against AFC opponents
The Ravens, meanwhile, carry several positive ATS trends, including 6-1 as a chalk, 6-1 against the AFC, 5-1 on the highway, 4-1 in road playoff games, 8-2 after a SU win and 6-2 after a pointspread win. The only negatives: Baltimore is on ATS dips of 0-5 in January games and 1-8 as a road chalk..
The under for Miami is on tears of 8-2 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-0 in wild-card playoff games, 7-1 overall in the playoffs and 5-1 with the Dolphins as a playoff pup. On the flip side, the over for the Ravens is on runs of 7-3-1 overall, 5-0-1 in roadies, 15-5-1 on grass and 13-5 against the AFC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Philadelphia (9-6-1, 10-6 ATS) at Minnesota (10-6, 6-10 ATS)
The Eagles, who won four of their last five games to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, head to the Metrodome to battle the NFC North champion Vikings, who are on a 5-1 SU run and back in the postseason for the first time since 2005.
In a game that sent the winner to the playoffs and the loser home, Philadelphia battered Dallas 44-6 last week as 2½-point home favorite, bouncing back nicely from a 10-3 loss at Washington as a 4 ½-point favorite. QB Donovan McNabb (12 of 21, 175 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had a turnover-free day against the Cowboys and ran for a TD, and the Eagles finished with just one turnover while forcing a whopping five turnovers, including an INT and two fumbles from Cowboys QB Tony Romo. The Eagles scored back-to-back defensive touchdowns on long fumble returns to start the third quarter.
Minnesota rallied to beat the top-seeded Giants 20-19 as a seven-point home chalk to secure the division title, getting a 50-yard field goal from Ryan Longwell in the final seconds to beat a New York squad that was resting or limiting several key players. QB Tarvaris Jackson (16 of 26, 239 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had a decent outing, despite committing the game’s lone turnover, and RB Adrian Peterson (21 carries, 103 yards) had a 67-yard TD jaunt. That helped the Vikes overcome a nearly nine-minute deficit in time of possession (34:19-25:41).
Philadelphia is on a 4-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, having held Minnesota to 17 points or less in all four games. Most recently, the Eagles won 23-16 as a one-point road ‘dog in October 2007. The favorite and the home team are 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes. The Vikings’ last postseason game came in Philadelphia in 2005, losing 27-14 as a 7½-point chalk.
Philly sports the league’s sixth-best scoring offense (26 ppg) and is ninth in total yards (350.5 per game), paced by the sixth-rated passing attack (244.4 ypg). McNabb completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 3,916 yards and 23 TDs, against 11 INTs. RB Brian Westbrook, despite being dinged up a few times during the season, still rushed for 936 yards (4.0 ypc) and nine TDs, and he had 54 catches for another 402 yards and five scores.
Philadelphia fielded one of the league’s best defenses, allowing per-game averages of 274.3 yards (third) and 18.1 points (fourth). The Eagles gave up just 182.1 passing ypg (third) and 92.2 rushing ypg (fourth), and they finished the year with a plus-3 turnover differential.
Minnesota averaged 23.7 points (12th) and 330.5 total ypg (17th), but they have the league’s fifth-best rushing attack at 145.8 ppg, led by Peterson, who won the NFL’s rushing title with 1,760 yards. The passing game nets just 184.8 ypg (25th) for the Vikings, who have gone back and forth this season between QBs Jackson and veteran Gus Frerotte, with Jackson now back in the starting role. Jackson, who started five games, completed 59.1 percent of his throws for 1,056 yards, with nine TDs and two INTs.
Minnesota led the league in rushing defense, allowing just 76.9 per game, and the Vikes ranked sixth in total defense (292.4 ypg) and 13th in scoring defense (20.8 ppg). However, the Vikings finished the season with a minus-6 turnover margin.
The Eagles are on ATS dips of 2-11-1 as a chalk of three points or less and 3-7-1 as a road favorite of any price, but they are otherwise on spread-covering streaks of 4-1 overall, 10-4 on the highway, 5-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 4-1 in the playoffs, 6-2 against the NFC and 7-3 against winning teams. On the flip side, the Vikings are on pointspread dives of 6-13 overall, 3-7 at the Metrodome, 0-4 getting three points or less at home, 1-4 as a home pup of any price and 2-9 after a SU win.
The under for Philadelphia is on rolls of 4-1 on the road, 40-16-5 as a favorite, 5-1-1 in the playoffs and 4-0-1 as a playoff chalk. And for Minnesota, the under is on stretches of 5-1 in January, 4-1-1 in playoff games and 26-12-1 coming off a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Illinois (13-1, 7-3 ATS) at (23) Michigan (10-3, 5-2-1 ATS)
Illinois brings a seven-game winning streak into Ann Arbor, Mich., for a Big Ten showdown with the Wolverines.
The Illini opened conference action with Tuesday’s 71-67 overtime win at Purdue, getting the victory as an eight-point underdog as four starters reached double-digits in scoring, led by Mike Tisdale’s 18 points. Illinois 2-0 SU and ATS in true roadies this season and an impressive 6-0 ATS in road or neutral-site games.
Michigan has been at home for six straight games (2-1 ATS) but dropped a 73-61 conference matchup to Wisconsin on Wednesday, falling as a 3½-point favorite. The Wolverines got 20 points and eight rebounds from Zack Novak but not much else from the rest of the team.
The home team has won six straight (5-1 ATS) in this series and eight of the last nine (8-1 ATS). Michigan got a 49-43 victory last year in Ann Arbor, cashing as a two-point ‘dog in late February. The home team is 15-2 ATS in the last 17 series clashes, and the Wolverines are 8-0 ATS in the last eight matchups in Michigan.
Illinois is on ATS runs of 4-1 overall and 6-2 after a straight-up win, but it is also on slides of 3-7 after a spread-cover and 2-7 on Sundays. Michigan is just 1-5 ATS in its last six Big Ten games, but the Wolverines are on positive ATS streaks of 5-2-1 overall, 4-1 at home and 4-1 on Sundays.
For the Fighting Illinii, the under is 47-22-1 in their last 70 games after a spread-cover and 20-6-1 in their last 27 Sunday contests. Michigan is on “over” runs of 7-2 on Sundays and 4-0 at home, but otherwise the under is 7-1 in its last eight Big Ten games and 6-0 in its last six after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN
Kentucky (11-3, 5-3-1 ATS) at (18) Louisville (8-3, 5-6 ATS)
The Cardinals will try to bounce back from a shocking loss inside Freedom Hall when they host Kentucky in this inter-state rivalry matchup.
Louisville, 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall, has lost two of three overall (1-2 ATS), including Wednesday’s 56-55 home setback to UNLV as a 13½-point favorite. The Cardinals shot 16-of-54 from the field against the Rebels, and they are hitting on just 43.3 percent of their shots this season.
Kentucky has won six straight (4-1 ATS) and crushed Central Michigan 84-52 on Monday, cashing as a 22-point home favorite. The Wildcats have scored 72 points or more in eight of their last nine games, and topped the century mark in two of those outings.
The road team has won four of the last five (SU and ATS) in this rivalry, with Louisville taking an 89-75 decision a year ago as a 1½-point favorite in Lexington. The last time these two met in Louisville was December 2006 when the Wildcats scored a 61-49 victory as 2½-point ‘dogs.
Kentucky is on positive pointspread streaks of 10-2-1 against Big East teams, 4-1 in non-conference action, 5-2 on Sundays and 4-1 after a straight-up win. Louisville is just 1-5 ATS in its last six overall, 1-4 ATS in its last five at home and 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games, but the Cardinals are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 after a non-cover and 8-1 ATS in their last nine Sunday games.
The Wildcats have topped the total in nine of their last 13 non-conference games and five of their last six after a spread-cover. Louisville is on “under” runs of 7-2 overall, 12-3 against teams from the SEC, 5-1 after a non-cover, 25-17-1 in non-conference action and 5-0 at home against teams with a winning road record. Finally, the under is 8-1 in the last nine matchups in this rivalry, including 4-0 in Freedom Hall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Boston College (12-2, 6-3 ATS) at (1) North Carolina (13-0, 5-6 ATS)
The top-ranked Tar Heels put their perfect record on the line when they open the ACC campaign inside the Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill, N.C., against Boston College.
The Eagles have rattled off nine straight wins (3-2 ATS) and beat Sacred Heart 89-76 on Wednesday in an unlined contest. This is Boston College’s first road contest since Dec. 6 when it went to UMass and scored an 85-81 overtime win, coming up just short as a 4½-point chalk.
North Carolina has not scored less than 77 points in any game this season and averages 93.2 per contest and shoot 50 percent from the floor. On defense, the Tar Heels allow 68.2 ppg and limit the opposition to 39.7 percent shooting from the floor. On Wednesday in Nevada, the Heels blew out the Wolf Pack 84-61 as an 18½-point favorite to end a four-game streak of failing to cover the number.
North Carolina has won the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-2 ATS), including a 91-69 blowout win at home last season, easily covering as an 18½-point chalk. The host has dominated this series, going 4-0 ATS over the last two years.
Boston College is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven roadies, but 5-1 ATS in its last six against teams with a winning record. North Carolina is on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 35-17 at home, 7-3 on Sundays and 39-15-1 after a spread-cover, but the Heels are just 1-4 ATS in their last five overall, 1-5 ATS in their last six against ACC foes and 1-5 ATS in their last six at home against teams with a losing road record.
For the Eagles, the over is 4-1 in their last five overall and 14-3 in their last 17 after a straight-up win, while the under is 7-1 in their last eight on the road and 5-2 in their last seven against ACC competition. It’s been all overs for North Carolina, including 4-0 at home, 12-2 on Sundays, 5-2-1 against ACC teams and 8-2-1 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA
(20) Arizona State (12-1, 6-3 ATS) at California (12-2, 8-3 ATS)
The Sun Devils are shooting for a Northern California sweep to open the Pac-10 campaign when they visit Haas Pavilion in Berkeley to take on Cal.
Arizona State demolished Stanford on Friday 90-60, winning outright as a one-point underdog, thanks to 31 points and 11 rebounds from Jeff Pendergraph. The Sun Devils have rattled off eight straight wins (4-1 ATS) and they are 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in away or neutral-site games this season.
California has won six straight games and comes off Friday’s 69-55 home win over Arizona as a 4½-point favorite. The Bears got 23 points, four rebounds and four assists from Patrick Christopher and got the win despite shooting just 28-of-60 from the field. The Bears are a perfect 10-0 SU (6-1 ATS) on their home court.
The road team is on an 8-0 SU and ATS roll in this series, and going back further, the visitor has covered the number in 14 of the last 16 clashes. Arizona State has won and cashed its last five trips to Berkeley, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings overall.
The Sun Devils are on ATS runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0-1 against Pac-10 foes, 5-2 on Sundays and 4-0-1 on the road against teams with a winning home mark. Cal is riding ATS streaks that include 5-0 at home, 4-0 after a straight-up win, 4-1 against the Pac-10 and 4-0 against teams with a winning record.
Arizona State has topped the total in six of its last seven overall and 10 of its last 12 against teams with a winning straight-up record, but the Sun Devils are on “under” runs of 17-8 on the road, 5-1 on Sundays and 6-1 following a spread-cover. The Bears have stayed under the total in four of their last five overall, but otherwise the team is on over stretches of 21-8 in Pac-10 action, 20-6-1 after a spread-cover and 7-0 against teams with a winning record. In this rivalry, the over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings overall, including 5-2 in the last seven battles at Haas Pavilion.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Portland (20-13, 16-17 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (26-5, 15-16 ATS)
The Lakers put their 14-game home winning streak on the line when they welcome the Trail Blazers to the Staples Center for a non-divisional showdown.
Portland is coming off Friday’s 92-77 home loss to New Orleans, getting blown out as a 1½-point underdog as star guard Brandon Roy missed his second straight game with an injury. The Blazers just finished a five-game homestand 3-2 SU and ATS and now go on the road where they are 8-9 SU and 6-11 ATS and average just 94.9 points per game while giving up 96.4.
Los Angeles has won five straight overall (4-1 ATS), including Friday’s 113-100 win over the Jazz, cashing as a 10-point favorite. The Lakers got 40 points and seven rebounds from Kobe Bryant as this team continues to dominate in Hollywood, averaging 109.6 points and 47.9 shooting at home while allowing 97.7 points per game.
The home team has won six straight in this series (3-3 ATS) and nine of the last 10 (5-5 ATS), including the Lakers’ 96-76 season-opening win as an eight-point chalk back on Oct. 28. Portland has gone 21-6 ATS in the last 27 meetings and had a nine-game spread-covering streak against L.A. snapped on opening night, making the Blazers 5-1 ATS in their last six games at Staples Center. Finally, the underdog has cashed in 22 of the last 27 matchups.
Portland is in a host of ATS slumps, including 4-10 overall, 0-6 on the road, 1-6 after a day off, 2-5 against the Western Conference and 2-6 against the Pacific Division. The Lakers have followed up a 10-game ATS losing skid by covering in their last four in a row, and they’re also 10-5 ATS in their last 15 against the Northwest Division. However, Los Angeles is on pointspread slides of 3-7 against the Western Conference, 3-7 on Sundays and 1-8 after one day off.
For the Blazers, the under is on streaks of 14-5 overall, 7-1 on the road, 48-22 against the Western Conference and 16-5 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Los Angeles is on “over” runs of 13-4 at home, 6-2 on Sundays, 7-3 against the Western Conference and 5-2 after a spread-cover. Finally, the under is 8-3 in the last 11 head-to-head matchups at Staples Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
