NFL Prop Shop: Championship Sunday
The postseason continues in the NFL with Championship Sunday. Why not spice things up with some player prop bets? Sean Murphy opens the doors of the NFL Prop Shop and gives you his favorite player prop picks for this weekend's action:
Most passing yards
Tom Brady (New England Patriots) vs. Peyton Manning (Denver Broncos)
I'm going to take the contrarian route - and the value that goes along with it - and support Tom Brady in this matchup of legendary quarterbacks.
The Patriots ran the ball early and often against the Colts last week. That was a wise gameplan considering how worn down the Colts defense was following their shootout win over the Chiefs a week earlier.
I don't expect the Pats to follow a similar path this Sunday, however. In fact, I won't be surprised if it's the Broncos that take a page out of New England's book. That's not to say Peyton Manning won't put up some big numbers, I simply feel the underdog value is too good to pass up with Brady against what I feel is a vulnerable Broncos secondary.
Take: Brady
Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)
While both of these young quarterbacks have taken on the role of game manager at times this season, I believe it's Colin Kaepernick that needs to step up and deliver a stronger performance through the air in order to win this game on Sunday.
You can be sure the Seahawks gameplan will involve feeding the beast at every opportunity. By the beast, I'm of course referring to Marshawn Lynch. If Russell Wilson stars in this game, I expect it to be more as a result of his mobility and decision-making with the football.
The Seahawks secondary is imposing to be sure, but I don't envision the 49ers scaling back their passing offense. They know that's an area they need to improve immensely in order to snap their losing streak in the Pacific Northwest.
Take: Kaepernick
Most rushing yards
Stevan Ridley (New England Patriots) vs. Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos)
Everyone knows about the success the Patriots enjoyed on the ground against the Colts last Saturday, but I don't think there's any question, they'll find the going a little tougher in that department this week.
If anyone is going to break through against the Denver run defense, it's likely going to be LaGarrette Blount, not Stevan Ridley. The versatile back hasn't exactly drawn the trust of head coach Bill Bellichick this season.
Knowshon Moreno might not be a huge factor in this game, but as the odds suggest, he should be enough of one to outrush Ridley.
Take: Moreno
Most pass receptions
Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Doug Baldwin (Seattle Seahawks)
Doug Baldwin made the biggest catch of the game in the Seahawks win over New Orleans last Saturday, but wasn't much of a factor otherwise, hauling in only two catches for 30 yards. Given Seattle's rather thin receiving corps, there's really nowhere for Baldwin to hide against an outstanding 49ers defense.
Michael Crabtree played second fiddle to Anquan Boldin last Sunday in Carolina, catching only three passes. He did have seven pass targets, however, and I expect him to see a similar workload this week - if not heavier. Crabtree has evolved into a big-game receiver, and I believe he's the x-factor for the 49ers this Sunday.
Take: Crabtree
The postseason continues in the NFL with Championship Sunday. Why not spice things up with some player prop bets? Sean Murphy opens the doors of the NFL Prop Shop and gives you his favorite player prop picks for this weekend's action:
Most passing yards
Tom Brady (New England Patriots) vs. Peyton Manning (Denver Broncos)
I'm going to take the contrarian route - and the value that goes along with it - and support Tom Brady in this matchup of legendary quarterbacks.
The Patriots ran the ball early and often against the Colts last week. That was a wise gameplan considering how worn down the Colts defense was following their shootout win over the Chiefs a week earlier.
I don't expect the Pats to follow a similar path this Sunday, however. In fact, I won't be surprised if it's the Broncos that take a page out of New England's book. That's not to say Peyton Manning won't put up some big numbers, I simply feel the underdog value is too good to pass up with Brady against what I feel is a vulnerable Broncos secondary.
Take: Brady
Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)
While both of these young quarterbacks have taken on the role of game manager at times this season, I believe it's Colin Kaepernick that needs to step up and deliver a stronger performance through the air in order to win this game on Sunday.
You can be sure the Seahawks gameplan will involve feeding the beast at every opportunity. By the beast, I'm of course referring to Marshawn Lynch. If Russell Wilson stars in this game, I expect it to be more as a result of his mobility and decision-making with the football.
The Seahawks secondary is imposing to be sure, but I don't envision the 49ers scaling back their passing offense. They know that's an area they need to improve immensely in order to snap their losing streak in the Pacific Northwest.
Take: Kaepernick
Most rushing yards
Stevan Ridley (New England Patriots) vs. Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos)
Everyone knows about the success the Patriots enjoyed on the ground against the Colts last Saturday, but I don't think there's any question, they'll find the going a little tougher in that department this week.
If anyone is going to break through against the Denver run defense, it's likely going to be LaGarrette Blount, not Stevan Ridley. The versatile back hasn't exactly drawn the trust of head coach Bill Bellichick this season.
Knowshon Moreno might not be a huge factor in this game, but as the odds suggest, he should be enough of one to outrush Ridley.
Take: Moreno
Most pass receptions
Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Doug Baldwin (Seattle Seahawks)
Doug Baldwin made the biggest catch of the game in the Seahawks win over New Orleans last Saturday, but wasn't much of a factor otherwise, hauling in only two catches for 30 yards. Given Seattle's rather thin receiving corps, there's really nowhere for Baldwin to hide against an outstanding 49ers defense.
Michael Crabtree played second fiddle to Anquan Boldin last Sunday in Carolina, catching only three passes. He did have seven pass targets, however, and I expect him to see a similar workload this week - if not heavier. Crabtree has evolved into a big-game receiver, and I believe he's the x-factor for the 49ers this Sunday.
Take: Crabtree
NFL injury report
Four injuries undervalued by oddsmakers
The Championship games are set where the winner of each moves on to the Superbowl.
In the AFC Championship game, New England travels to Denver where the Broncos are 5.5-point home favorite with the total at 56.
In the NFC Championship game, the 49ers travel to Seattle where the Seahawks are 3.5-point home favorites with the total at 39.
Here is one injury on each team that may affect the outcome of the game.
Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (Concussion, Questionable)
Harvin missed most of the regular season with a hip injury, but was deemed healthy enough to play in Seattle's divisional playoff win against the Saints. Harvin was injured once again after taking two big hits and is yet to be cleared to practice from concussion. The Seahawks have struggled passing the ball this season and if Harvin isn't cleared to play, the trend will likely continue. Seattle's passing game has been a concern during the postseason with Russell Wilson throwing for only103 yards and 0 touchdowns.
Carlos Rogers, CB, San Francisco 49ers (Hamstring, Questionable)
Cornerback Carlos Rogers has been out since the final game of the regular season. In the regular season, Rogers had 47 tackles and two interceptions. The 49ers travel to Seattle facing a Seahawks team that has had limited success in throwing the ball in the post season but have been dominant rushing the ball. If the 49ers are without Rogers again, the Seahawks passing offense may find the spark they have been missing through the air.
Ryan Allen, New England Patriots (Shoulder, Questionable)
In the regular season, punter Ryan Allen had 76 punts averaging 45.9 yards. He had 29 punts inside the 20 and a long of 65. If Allen is unable to start against the Broncos, the Patriots would be relying on Stephen Gostkowski to handle all of the kicking and punting duties. In a game that is predicted to be high scoring against two offensive heavyweights, field position really may come in to play and the Patriots may fall behind in special teams.
Chris Harris, CB, Denver Broncos (ACL, Out)
In the regular season Harris had 65 tackles and three interceptions, although he has not been statistically great in the postseason, That said, Harris has still been a key player in the Broncos secondary. Without the Broncos cornerback, the Patriots passing offense could take advantage of deep balls and passing plays. Harris has played more defensive snaps than any other Broncos player in the regular season and his versatility will be missed with the ability to play either side, outside or in the slot.
Four injuries undervalued by oddsmakers
The Championship games are set where the winner of each moves on to the Superbowl.
In the AFC Championship game, New England travels to Denver where the Broncos are 5.5-point home favorite with the total at 56.
In the NFC Championship game, the 49ers travel to Seattle where the Seahawks are 3.5-point home favorites with the total at 39.
Here is one injury on each team that may affect the outcome of the game.
Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (Concussion, Questionable)
Harvin missed most of the regular season with a hip injury, but was deemed healthy enough to play in Seattle's divisional playoff win against the Saints. Harvin was injured once again after taking two big hits and is yet to be cleared to practice from concussion. The Seahawks have struggled passing the ball this season and if Harvin isn't cleared to play, the trend will likely continue. Seattle's passing game has been a concern during the postseason with Russell Wilson throwing for only103 yards and 0 touchdowns.
Carlos Rogers, CB, San Francisco 49ers (Hamstring, Questionable)
Cornerback Carlos Rogers has been out since the final game of the regular season. In the regular season, Rogers had 47 tackles and two interceptions. The 49ers travel to Seattle facing a Seahawks team that has had limited success in throwing the ball in the post season but have been dominant rushing the ball. If the 49ers are without Rogers again, the Seahawks passing offense may find the spark they have been missing through the air.
Ryan Allen, New England Patriots (Shoulder, Questionable)
In the regular season, punter Ryan Allen had 76 punts averaging 45.9 yards. He had 29 punts inside the 20 and a long of 65. If Allen is unable to start against the Broncos, the Patriots would be relying on Stephen Gostkowski to handle all of the kicking and punting duties. In a game that is predicted to be high scoring against two offensive heavyweights, field position really may come in to play and the Patriots may fall behind in special teams.
Chris Harris, CB, Denver Broncos (ACL, Out)
In the regular season Harris had 65 tackles and three interceptions, although he has not been statistically great in the postseason, That said, Harris has still been a key player in the Broncos secondary. Without the Broncos cornerback, the Patriots passing offense could take advantage of deep balls and passing plays. Harris has played more defensive snaps than any other Broncos player in the regular season and his versatility will be missed with the ability to play either side, outside or in the slot.
ANDRE GOMES
NFL Conference Round - 303 San Francisco 49ers @ 304 Seattle Seahawks
In normal conditions, I would have a lean in SEA-3.5 playing at home vs. any team in the league as I understand the “12th man advantage” for SEA, and their incredible home record in the last few season’s that includes two complete “beatings” vs. San Francisco in the last 2 h2h’s games at home.
However, this also creates an additional pressure to win for SEA, and this might turn against them especially vs. such experienced and road battled team like SF.
I really don’t trust SEA offense right now… in the last game, they could have put the Saints away already in the first half, but they settled for 3 FG’s in their 4 FH scoring drives. They were #2 in offensive penalties during the regular season – only OAK had more offensive penalties than them, and SEA’s running game isn’t that “strong” – Yes, they ran for 174 yds vs. NO last week but it was vs. the Saints rushing defense….enough said.
SF’s defense has been dramatically improving in the last weeks, especially since Aldon Smith returned to the team. Already in this postseason, SF has faced two great mobile QB’s in A. Rodgers and Cam Newton and they did a terrific job in slowing them down, and I expect them to be decent vs. R. Wilson.
The X factor IMO for this contest is related w/ matchup SF offense vs. SEA defense…
I won’t waste many words talking about SEA’s defense – they are awesome!!!
However, SF’s offense has now more weapons than SEA offense and this will make the difference especially in short/medium range plays. A. Boldin, M. Crabtree & V. Davis will dictate some extra attention from SEA defense and this will open up a bit the field for Gore’s & Kaepernick’s legs in the running game.
SEA’s thrives in creating Turnovers but they will have a hard time in doing that vs. SF that takes care of the ball – one TO in their last 5 games!
I really expect this contest to be a tight battle while the home court advantage won’t be that much a factor IMO for a SF team that already have won @GB in the cold and completely dominated CAR on the road in the last game, therefore, I’m taking SF+3.5 in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 303 San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) @ -110
NFL Conference Round - 303 San Francisco 49ers @ 304 Seattle Seahawks
In normal conditions, I would have a lean in SEA-3.5 playing at home vs. any team in the league as I understand the “12th man advantage” for SEA, and their incredible home record in the last few season’s that includes two complete “beatings” vs. San Francisco in the last 2 h2h’s games at home.
However, this also creates an additional pressure to win for SEA, and this might turn against them especially vs. such experienced and road battled team like SF.
I really don’t trust SEA offense right now… in the last game, they could have put the Saints away already in the first half, but they settled for 3 FG’s in their 4 FH scoring drives. They were #2 in offensive penalties during the regular season – only OAK had more offensive penalties than them, and SEA’s running game isn’t that “strong” – Yes, they ran for 174 yds vs. NO last week but it was vs. the Saints rushing defense….enough said.
SF’s defense has been dramatically improving in the last weeks, especially since Aldon Smith returned to the team. Already in this postseason, SF has faced two great mobile QB’s in A. Rodgers and Cam Newton and they did a terrific job in slowing them down, and I expect them to be decent vs. R. Wilson.
The X factor IMO for this contest is related w/ matchup SF offense vs. SEA defense…
I won’t waste many words talking about SEA’s defense – they are awesome!!!
However, SF’s offense has now more weapons than SEA offense and this will make the difference especially in short/medium range plays. A. Boldin, M. Crabtree & V. Davis will dictate some extra attention from SEA defense and this will open up a bit the field for Gore’s & Kaepernick’s legs in the running game.
SEA’s thrives in creating Turnovers but they will have a hard time in doing that vs. SF that takes care of the ball – one TO in their last 5 games!
I really expect this contest to be a tight battle while the home court advantage won’t be that much a factor IMO for a SF team that already have won @GB in the cold and completely dominated CAR on the road in the last game, therefore, I’m taking SF+3.5 in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 303 San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) @ -110
INSIDER ANGLES
NFL Trends & Angles - Championship Game Round
Well, it was another great week for our NFL Trends & Angles in the Divisional Round of the 2013 NFL Playoffs as we officially went 8-2-4 ATS on a game-by-game basis, and those of you that got better than +8 on the New Orleans Saints went 12-2 ATS! That makes us officially 13-4-4 ATS through the first two rounds of the playoffs (17-4 ATS if you bet Saints late).
Remember that not all of the enormous volume on these NFL Playoff games will come from bettors that have been betting all season, as this is the time of year that brings out many novice bettors, and because of that the betting lines are more likely to change on "square" money at this time simply because of the sheer dollar amounts bet. Thus, as ironic as it sounds, post-season lines are sometimes not as sharp as the regular season.
That often leads to some vulnerable lines for sharper players, and as usual, underdogs are a nice place to start with many of the novice players eager to back the popular favorites. That same logic suggests to look at playing the 'under' first when playing totals, with fans of high scoring games, especially the aforementioned squares, usually over-betting the 'over'.
Note that because there are a grand total of only 11 post-season games every year, it is hard to get as large a sample size as we do during the regular season, when going back to the 2005 season suffices for our NFL Trends & Angles. Thus, our playoff angles have varying lengths basically out of necessity, and even with that, not all of them will have the larger sample sizes you are accustomed to seeing with our regular season trends.
So here are our NFL Trends & Angles for the Championship Game Round of the playoffs, beginning with two angles that we are using for the first time this season and followed by three angles we are bringing back from last week. Also note that these angles are based on closing lines, so for these purposes, the Seahawks lost ATS last week even though they were a 'push' vs. the Saints at the time we published.
We have specified the length of each Trends & Angle.
Play on any road playoff team that won on the road in the previous week
(22-12, 64.7% ATS since 2005):
It is supposed to be hard to win on the road during the playoffs, as road teams are the lower seed after all, but apparently once a team does win on the road it becomes easier to repeat the performance. That could be the reason why so many wild cards have made Super Bowl runs in recent years.
Qualifier: 49ers +3½.
Play the 'over' in any playoff game if a team is coming off of three ATS wins
(61-39. 61.0% since 1990):
Yes the old axiom is "Defense win Championships", but this nice angle that stretches all the way back to 1990 is evidence that teams that are playing well and usually advance in the playoffs are teams that can score points also. That is not to say that defense is not important, but teams have to be able to compliment those defenses with the ability to at least score some points if they want to reach the Super Bowl.
Qualifying 'over': Patriots vs. Broncos.
In playoff rematches of non-divisional regular season meetings, play on the team that lost the regular season meeting straight up
(43-25-1, 63.2% ATS since 2001):
A lot of non-divisional regular season matchups take place once every four years or so, which means that the teams are usually unfamiliar with each other when they take the field. However, if fate allows those teams to meet again in the playoffs, the team that lost now has some actual game tape to dissect and can make adjustments to either get revenge in the playoffs or at least make the game more competitive.
Qualifier: Broncos -5.
Play on any playoff underdog coming off of two straight up wins
(61-40-2, 60.4% ATS since 1999):
Obviously the favorites in the playoffs are usually the better team and the public loves to bet favorites, which becomes even more amplified in the playoffs with so much more novice money involved. That often leads to nice value on underdogs that are playing well while coming in on winning steaks.
Qualifiers: Patriots +5 and 49ers +3½.
Play against any playoff home team that lost its last game against the spread
(31-19, 62.0% ATS since 2002):
Way back in the day before there was internet, there used to be a popular playoff system that said to play on a team that failed to cover its last game, with the theory being that the team would be undervalued following a ATS loss yet was obviously still a good team since these are the playoffs after all. As so oftentimes happens with systems like that though, the public gets wind of it and all of a sudden, the contrarians become the mainstream. Nowadays, if a playoff team loses its last game ATS, it can be taken at face value as a sign that the team may be vulnerable, especially at home where it is usually asked to give more points (or it gets fewer points as an underdog).
Qualifiers: Patriots +5 and 49ers +3½.
NFL Trends & Angles - Championship Game Round
Well, it was another great week for our NFL Trends & Angles in the Divisional Round of the 2013 NFL Playoffs as we officially went 8-2-4 ATS on a game-by-game basis, and those of you that got better than +8 on the New Orleans Saints went 12-2 ATS! That makes us officially 13-4-4 ATS through the first two rounds of the playoffs (17-4 ATS if you bet Saints late).
Remember that not all of the enormous volume on these NFL Playoff games will come from bettors that have been betting all season, as this is the time of year that brings out many novice bettors, and because of that the betting lines are more likely to change on "square" money at this time simply because of the sheer dollar amounts bet. Thus, as ironic as it sounds, post-season lines are sometimes not as sharp as the regular season.
That often leads to some vulnerable lines for sharper players, and as usual, underdogs are a nice place to start with many of the novice players eager to back the popular favorites. That same logic suggests to look at playing the 'under' first when playing totals, with fans of high scoring games, especially the aforementioned squares, usually over-betting the 'over'.
Note that because there are a grand total of only 11 post-season games every year, it is hard to get as large a sample size as we do during the regular season, when going back to the 2005 season suffices for our NFL Trends & Angles. Thus, our playoff angles have varying lengths basically out of necessity, and even with that, not all of them will have the larger sample sizes you are accustomed to seeing with our regular season trends.
So here are our NFL Trends & Angles for the Championship Game Round of the playoffs, beginning with two angles that we are using for the first time this season and followed by three angles we are bringing back from last week. Also note that these angles are based on closing lines, so for these purposes, the Seahawks lost ATS last week even though they were a 'push' vs. the Saints at the time we published.
We have specified the length of each Trends & Angle.
Play on any road playoff team that won on the road in the previous week
(22-12, 64.7% ATS since 2005):
It is supposed to be hard to win on the road during the playoffs, as road teams are the lower seed after all, but apparently once a team does win on the road it becomes easier to repeat the performance. That could be the reason why so many wild cards have made Super Bowl runs in recent years.
Qualifier: 49ers +3½.
Play the 'over' in any playoff game if a team is coming off of three ATS wins
(61-39. 61.0% since 1990):
Yes the old axiom is "Defense win Championships", but this nice angle that stretches all the way back to 1990 is evidence that teams that are playing well and usually advance in the playoffs are teams that can score points also. That is not to say that defense is not important, but teams have to be able to compliment those defenses with the ability to at least score some points if they want to reach the Super Bowl.
Qualifying 'over': Patriots vs. Broncos.
In playoff rematches of non-divisional regular season meetings, play on the team that lost the regular season meeting straight up
(43-25-1, 63.2% ATS since 2001):
A lot of non-divisional regular season matchups take place once every four years or so, which means that the teams are usually unfamiliar with each other when they take the field. However, if fate allows those teams to meet again in the playoffs, the team that lost now has some actual game tape to dissect and can make adjustments to either get revenge in the playoffs or at least make the game more competitive.
Qualifier: Broncos -5.
Play on any playoff underdog coming off of two straight up wins
(61-40-2, 60.4% ATS since 1999):
Obviously the favorites in the playoffs are usually the better team and the public loves to bet favorites, which becomes even more amplified in the playoffs with so much more novice money involved. That often leads to nice value on underdogs that are playing well while coming in on winning steaks.
Qualifiers: Patriots +5 and 49ers +3½.
Play against any playoff home team that lost its last game against the spread
(31-19, 62.0% ATS since 2002):
Way back in the day before there was internet, there used to be a popular playoff system that said to play on a team that failed to cover its last game, with the theory being that the team would be undervalued following a ATS loss yet was obviously still a good team since these are the playoffs after all. As so oftentimes happens with systems like that though, the public gets wind of it and all of a sudden, the contrarians become the mainstream. Nowadays, if a playoff team loses its last game ATS, it can be taken at face value as a sign that the team may be vulnerable, especially at home where it is usually asked to give more points (or it gets fewer points as an underdog).
Qualifiers: Patriots +5 and 49ers +3½.
ANDRE GOMES
NFL Conference Round - 303 San Francisco 49ers @ 304 Seattle Seahawks
In normal conditions, I would have a lean in SEA-3.5 playing at home vs. any team in the league as I understand the “12th man advantage” for SEA, and their incredible home record in the last few season’s that includes two complete “beatings” vs. San Francisco in the last 2 h2h’s games at home.
However, this also creates an additional pressure to win for SEA, and this might turn against them especially vs. such experienced and road battled team like SF.
I really don’t trust SEA offense right now… in the last game, they could have put the Saints away already in the first half, but they settled for 3 FG’s in their 4 FH scoring drives. They were #2 in offensive penalties during the regular season – only OAK had more offensive penalties than them, and SEA’s running game isn’t that “strong” – Yes, they ran for 174 yds vs. NO last week but it was vs. the Saints rushing defense….enough said.
SF’s defense has been dramatically improving in the last weeks, especially since Aldon Smith returned to the team. Already in this postseason, SF has faced two great mobile QB’s in A. Rodgers and Cam Newton and they did a terrific job in slowing them down, and I expect them to be decent vs. R. Wilson.
The X factor IMO for this contest is related w/ matchup SF offense vs. SEA defense…
I won’t waste many words talking about SEA’s defense – they are awesome!!!
However, SF’s offense has now more weapons than SEA offense and this will make the difference especially in short/medium range plays. A. Boldin, M. Crabtree & V. Davis will dictate some extra attention from SEA defense and this will open up a bit the field for Gore’s & Kaepernick’s legs in the running game.
SEA’s thrives in creating Turnovers but they will have a hard time in doing that vs. SF that takes care of the ball – one TO in their last 5 games!
I really expect this contest to be a tight battle while the home court advantage won’t be that much a factor IMO for a SF team that already have won @GB in the cold and completely dominated CAR on the road in the last game, therefore, I’m taking SF+3.5 in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 303 San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) @ -110
NFL Conference Round - 303 San Francisco 49ers @ 304 Seattle Seahawks
In normal conditions, I would have a lean in SEA-3.5 playing at home vs. any team in the league as I understand the “12th man advantage” for SEA, and their incredible home record in the last few season’s that includes two complete “beatings” vs. San Francisco in the last 2 h2h’s games at home.
However, this also creates an additional pressure to win for SEA, and this might turn against them especially vs. such experienced and road battled team like SF.
I really don’t trust SEA offense right now… in the last game, they could have put the Saints away already in the first half, but they settled for 3 FG’s in their 4 FH scoring drives. They were #2 in offensive penalties during the regular season – only OAK had more offensive penalties than them, and SEA’s running game isn’t that “strong” – Yes, they ran for 174 yds vs. NO last week but it was vs. the Saints rushing defense….enough said.
SF’s defense has been dramatically improving in the last weeks, especially since Aldon Smith returned to the team. Already in this postseason, SF has faced two great mobile QB’s in A. Rodgers and Cam Newton and they did a terrific job in slowing them down, and I expect them to be decent vs. R. Wilson.
The X factor IMO for this contest is related w/ matchup SF offense vs. SEA defense…
I won’t waste many words talking about SEA’s defense – they are awesome!!!
However, SF’s offense has now more weapons than SEA offense and this will make the difference especially in short/medium range plays. A. Boldin, M. Crabtree & V. Davis will dictate some extra attention from SEA defense and this will open up a bit the field for Gore’s & Kaepernick’s legs in the running game.
SEA’s thrives in creating Turnovers but they will have a hard time in doing that vs. SF that takes care of the ball – one TO in their last 5 games!
I really expect this contest to be a tight battle while the home court advantage won’t be that much a factor IMO for a SF team that already have won @GB in the cold and completely dominated CAR on the road in the last game, therefore, I’m taking SF+3.5 in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 303 San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) @ -110
SPORTS WAGERS NFL
DENVER -5½ -108 over New England
We could easily make a case for either side here, as it’s not difficult to get behind the combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Belichick is one of the greatest coaches this league has ever seen with one of the sharpest football minds in history. He is calm, he knows how to plug holes and he knows how to exploit the opposition’s weaknesses. The way in which New England systematically broke down the Colts last week was a sight that is still fresh in the minds of everyone who watched it, especially those that wagered on the Colts and ripped up their tickets. Indy never stood a chance and now this Patriot team is being offered up what seems like far too many points. At least that’s what we’ve been hearing all week…….“Oh man, you can’t give Brady this many points”. “Brady owns Manning”. “New England can win this game without the points”. “100%, you have to take the points”. That’s all we’ve been hearing since the number came out. In fact, this number came out at -7 for a brief few moments on Sunday and one oddsmaker was quoted as saying, “We put out a bad number”. Yeah, ok. Don’t believe that for a hot second. The oddsmakers don’t put out a bad number for a game that is going to be one of the most wagered on events ever. The only thing missing from that quote was the chuckle under his breath.
We’re not going to waste your time and break down the X’s and O’s. You’ve already seen it or heard it broken down enough times to make you puke already and you’ll get more of it on Sunday with Curly, Larry and Moe. If Shannon Sharpe takes the marbles out of his mouth, you may even hear him muffle out an opinion. In any event, there is not a crystal ball in the world that can predict all the intangibles that affect the outcome when two evenly matched teams hook up. That aside, one should never ignore what the line is telling us and when something looks this good (New England plus the points), red flags should go off in your head. Had this game been played before New England defeated Indy and Denver struggled against San Diego, the masses wouldn’t be on the pooch. The public’s over-reaction to last week’s results has us backing the team that the oddsmakers don’t want us on because that’s usually the right side. So, while New England was preparing for the Colts, Peyton Manning has probably spent 16 hours a day for two weeks preparing to face New England’s weak defense. Lay the points.
DENVER -5½ -108 over New England
We could easily make a case for either side here, as it’s not difficult to get behind the combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Belichick is one of the greatest coaches this league has ever seen with one of the sharpest football minds in history. He is calm, he knows how to plug holes and he knows how to exploit the opposition’s weaknesses. The way in which New England systematically broke down the Colts last week was a sight that is still fresh in the minds of everyone who watched it, especially those that wagered on the Colts and ripped up their tickets. Indy never stood a chance and now this Patriot team is being offered up what seems like far too many points. At least that’s what we’ve been hearing all week…….“Oh man, you can’t give Brady this many points”. “Brady owns Manning”. “New England can win this game without the points”. “100%, you have to take the points”. That’s all we’ve been hearing since the number came out. In fact, this number came out at -7 for a brief few moments on Sunday and one oddsmaker was quoted as saying, “We put out a bad number”. Yeah, ok. Don’t believe that for a hot second. The oddsmakers don’t put out a bad number for a game that is going to be one of the most wagered on events ever. The only thing missing from that quote was the chuckle under his breath.
We’re not going to waste your time and break down the X’s and O’s. You’ve already seen it or heard it broken down enough times to make you puke already and you’ll get more of it on Sunday with Curly, Larry and Moe. If Shannon Sharpe takes the marbles out of his mouth, you may even hear him muffle out an opinion. In any event, there is not a crystal ball in the world that can predict all the intangibles that affect the outcome when two evenly matched teams hook up. That aside, one should never ignore what the line is telling us and when something looks this good (New England plus the points), red flags should go off in your head. Had this game been played before New England defeated Indy and Denver struggled against San Diego, the masses wouldn’t be on the pooch. The public’s over-reaction to last week’s results has us backing the team that the oddsmakers don’t want us on because that’s usually the right side. So, while New England was preparing for the Colts, Peyton Manning has probably spent 16 hours a day for two weeks preparing to face New England’s weak defense. Lay the points.
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/19/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________
***** Sunday, 1/19/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
__________________________________________
Sunday's Notebook
•Houston is 5-7 in its last dozen games after losing by 39 at Louisville in last game Thursday; Cougars are 9-1 versus teams outside top 150, losing to San Jose at home Dec 7. Four of their last six games were decided by 4 or less points. Rutgers is 0-3 in true road games, losing by 3-6-20 points; they're 7-4 versus teams ranked outside top 100. AAC single digit home favorites are 3-6 versus spread.
•Wright State swept Cleveland State by 16-9 points LY, after losing six in row to Vikings before that; Raiders lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 9-5-19-22 points. Horizon home favorites are 12-7 versus spread, but 3-6 if number was less than six points. Wright lost by 10 at home to Green Bay Friday, just their second loss in last eight games. Cleveland State won both its Horizon home games, by 10 points each.
•Minnesota is 3-2 in Big Dozen, with four of five games decided by 3 or less points or in OT; Iowa won three of last four games with Gophers, with three of four decided by 4 or less points. Minnesota lost last two visits here by 4-21 points. Iowa is 3-1 in league, winning by 10-26-10 points; their only loss was by 4 at Wisconsin, when McCaffery got two technical’s when Iowa led. Big Dozen single digit home favorites are 1-9 versus spread.
•Louisiana Tech won its last seven games, with an OT win at Oklahoma; Bulldogs force turnovers 22.9% of time, have #11 eFG% defense in US,. are 2-3 versus top 100 teams, 11-0 if they allow less than 70 points, 4-3 if they allow 70+. Southern Mississippi is 7-0 at home, 1-1 versus teams in top 100. winning by point at North Dakota State, losing at Louisville by 31. C-USA home favorites of 7 or less points are 4-8 versus spread.
•Green Bay won four of last five games with Ill-Chicago; home teams are 8-1 in last nine series games- Phoenix lost three of last four visits here, losing by 7-2-3 points. Green Bay won its last nine games; this is their fourth road game in row, beating Wright State Friday. Horizon favorites of 6+ points are 10-1 versus spread this season. UIC lost its last nine games, losing last two conference games by total of nine points.
•Bowling Green beat Western Michigan last two years by 24-10 points; Falcons lost four of last five games, with three of four losses away from home- they're turning ball over 22.5% of time, and are 1-4 on road, with three losses by 12+ points. MAC single digit home favorites are 3-6 versus spread. WMU scored 37 points in loss to Eastern Michigan last game, after they scored 83+ points in winning previous four games.
•Charleston won five of last six games; they're turning ball over 20.4% of time; their eFG% is #253 in nation. Cougars are shooting 49% from arc in Colonial Athletic Association play, only 38% inside it. Towson won its last four games, winning first two CAA games by 8-12 points; they're forcing 3rd-least turnovers in US, but their eFG% defense is #34. CAA home favorites of 5 or less points are 0-6 versus spread.
•Notre Dame is struggling without leading scorer Grant, losing last three games since upsetting Duke at home; Irish are 3-5 in last eight games; all three wins were by 7 or less points. Atlantic Coast Conference double digit home favorites are 2-3 versus spread. Virginia Tech lost five of last six games, losing last two ACC games by total of 10 points. Hokies force 2nd-least turnovers in country, but they defend well, with the #41 eFG% defense.
•Oregon won five of last six games with Oregon State, winning last three visits here by 4-1-13 points; Ducks lost last three games after starting year 13-0, giving up 92.7 ppg in losses. Pac-12 home underdogs are 5-5 versus spread. Both teams are 1-3 in Pac-12; Beavers' three losses are by 6-11-5 points. Three of Oregon's last six wins came in OT. State is 9-7 in spite of making 40.4% from arc, #17 in country.
•Canisius (-10) beat Monmouth 87-67 last Sunday, making 14-30 from arc; Griffins lead Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference with 6-1 record, winning by hoop in last game at Iona Friday after blowing 20-point halftime lead- they're 3-5 in true road games, with last two road wins by total of six points. Monmouth is 2-5 in its first year in MAAC; four of five losses were by 9+. MAAC home underdogs are 4-6 against the spread.
•Iona (-3.5) won 87-78 at Siena last Sunday, making 15-30 from arc in a game they trailed by 3 with 7:12 left- they're 6-1 in last seven games versus Siena, winning last two here by 4-19 points. Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference double digit home favorites are 5-6 versus spread. Gaels had 23-0 run Friday but still lost by 2 to Canisius Friday. Siena is 1-3 on MAAC road, with losses by 15-4-22 points; they turn ball over 22.3% of time, have #286 eFG%.
•SMU won at Central Florida yesterday afternoon; they played five subs double digit minutes, no one more than 27 since they have makeup game here with Hofstra. Mustangs hold opponents to 38.8% inside arc, best mark in US- this is their third game in five days and they've got league game versus Rutgers on Tuesday. Hofstra won last two games after a 4-11 start; they haven't played since Wednesday.
Trends of The Day
-- RUTGERS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was RUTGERS 61.9, OPPONENT 65.4.
-- MINNESOTA is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 68.2, OPPONENT 60.6.
-- W MICHIGAN is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was W MICHIGAN 30.0, OPPONENT 33.0.
-- WRIGHT ST is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus good shooting teams - making >=47% of their shots over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WRIGHT ST 27.5, OPPONENT 26.6.
-- FRAN MCCAFFERY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games as the coach of IOWA.
The average score was MCCAFFERY 71.1, OPPONENT 67.0.
Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Home teams as a favorite or pick (W MICHIGAN) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after scoring 50 points or less.
(35-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.1%, +22.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (19-28 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.4
The average score in these games was: Team 60.4, Opponent 64.4 (Average point differential = -4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (28.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (27-7).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (74-41).
-- Play On - A home team of 6 or more points versus the first half line (IONA) - after allowing 85 points or more against opponent after allowing 85 points or more 2 straight games.
(26-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.7%, +21.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 38.2, Opponent 28 (Average first half point differential = +10.3)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-0).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (62-48).
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Sunday's Match-ups
#811 RUTGERS @ #812 HOUSTON
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS Sports Network - Line: Houston -4.5, Total: N/A) - After a rough first semester, Junior Etou continues to make positive strides for Rutgers, which will play the first of two games in Texas on Sunday at Houston. The freshman, who didn't play in the Scarlet Knights' first six games, set career highs with 14 points and 37 minutes in Wednesday's victory over Central Florida. "I'm glad he is here with us," head coach Eddie Jordan told the Star-Ledger of the 6-7, 225-pound Etou. "I'm glad he got over his first semester freshman blues. He has a will to win and to do things right. I am glad we have him. He is very special."
The Cougars will be looking to shake off some blues of their own, a result of last week's 39-point loss to defending national champion Louisville. After winning three straight games, including its first two in the American Athletic Conference, James Dickey's team has dropped games to Cincinnati and 14th-ranked Louisville, which made 15 3-pointers against the Cougars. "We need to close out with a great sense of urgency," Dickey told reporters of his team's 3-point defense, or lack thereof. "They utilized the weapon extremely well. We just have to close out with a quicker sense of urgency and get our hands up to discourage shots and challenge shots better."
•ABOUT RUTGERS (8-9 SU, 8-7-0 ATS, 2-2 AAC): Junior guard Myles Mack, who leads the team in scoring at 16.8 per game, became the 40th player in Rutgers history to join the 1,000-point club in the win over Central Florida. "The beginning of the game I guess I was thinking about it so much, that's why I didn't come out too strong," Mack told reporters. "After that, I got it off my mind. After the four points (needed for 1,000) , I came out and gave it my all." Mack finished with 25 points and Jerome Seagears returned from missing a game with an ankle injury to get 18 points as the Scarlet Knights snapped a two-game losing streak.
•ABOUT HOUSTON (10-7 SU, 7-5-0 ATS, 2-2 AAC): The return of starters Danuel House and L.J. Rose wasn't much help against Louisville, but it should make a big difference against the Scarlet Knights. House missed nine games due to surgery on his right knee, and a foot injury kept the point guard Rose out for five games. "I'm more optimistic now than I was earlier," Dickey told the media of the team's injury situation, which also includes forward J.J. Richardson, who didn't play against Louisville due to a foot injury. "At one point I was concerned if we'd get any of the three back."
•PREGAME NOTES: Mack became the first Rutgers player to get 1,000 points as a junior since Quincy Douby in 2005.... Houston won the only meeting between the teams 95-84 in December 1973.... House is second in scoring with 13.9 per game for the Cougars, behind TaShawn Thomas' 16.9 per contest.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, RUTGERS covered the spread 517 times, while HOUSTON covered the spread 483 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON won the game straight up 588 times, while RUTGERS won 378 times. In 1000 simulated games, RUTGERS covered the first half line 516 times, while HOUSTON covered the first half line 484 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1997: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--RUTG is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Over is 8-2 in RUTG last 10 overall.
--Under is 9-4 in RUTG last 13 road games.
--HOU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
--Under is 7-2 in HOU last 9 overall.
--Under is 7-1 in HOU last 8 home games.
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#815 MINNESOTA @ #816 IOWA
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Iowa -9, Total: N/A) - It's not easy getting attention in the Big Ten sometimes. With Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State garnering much of the national spotlight, teams like Iowa and Minnesota - which meet Sunday on the Hawkeyes' home court - can get lost in the shuffle. The Hawkeyes have claimed some attention after winning at Ohio State a week ago, moving up in the national rankings because of it, while the Gophers are still looking for that attention-grabbing win.
Beating the Hawkeyes would certainly help first-year coach Richard Pitino's national credibility, but that won't be easy. Iowa's only losses this year have been to nationally-ranked Villanova, Iowa State and Wisconsin, and the Hawkeyes have won 19 straight at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Still, Pitino's squad took Michigan State to overtime on the road and is coming off its own win over the Buckeyes as well.
•ABOUT MINNESOTA (14-4 SU, 6-8-1 ATS, 3-2 Big Ten): One of the big — though not literally — weapons the Gophers have at their disposal is 5-9 point guard DeAndre Mathieu, who continues to improve at his position as he learns on the job. The junior college transfer has been the starter from the beginning of this season, and Pitino sees him as a valuable asset going forward as he continues to learn how to play. “He needs to stop trying to drive in amongst the trees when there's two or three guys in there,” Pitino told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. “He's got to be smarter about his attempts, and (against Ohio State), he was about to drive it, they backed up, he knocked down two or three open shots, which was big.”
•ABOUT IOWA (14-3 SU, 10-5-0 ATS, 3-1 Big Ten): The Hawkeyes are hoping some home cooking can help lead them to a conference title. Iowa will host each of the top three teams in the league standings as well as Ohio State in the coming weeks, and with Carver-Hawkeye Arena scheduled to be sold out for each of them, the Hawkeyes should have quite an advantage. “We're just really excited that it's going to be like that,” Iowa coach Fran McCaffery told the Iowa City Press-Citizen. “I don't think there is any question we'd all agree that you're going to play better in that atmosphere.”
•PREGAME NOTES: The Golden Gophers rank No. 1 in the Big Ten in both steals per game (8.4) and free-throw percentage (.755).... Iowa F Melsahn Basabe has posted a double-double in each of the Hawkeyes' last two games.... The Hawkeyes have gotten the better of the Gophers in this matchup, leading 54-40, including winning the last matchup by 21.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA covered the spread 580 times, while MINNESOTA covered the spread 396 times. *EDGE against the spread =IOWA. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA won the game straight up 786 times, while MINNESOTA won 198 times. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA covered the first half line 483 times, while MINNESOTA covered the first half line 475 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MINNESOTA is 17-12 against the spread versus IOWA since 1997.
--IOWA is 16-14 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1997.
--11 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--IOWA is 16-14 versus the first half line when playing against MINNESOTA since 1997.
--10 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Golden Gophers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Golden Gophers are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Iowa.
--Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Iowa.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MINN is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games.
--Under is 6-2 in MINN last 8 Sun. games.
--Under is 12-4 in MINN last 16 vs. Big Ten.
--IOWA is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 vs. Big Ten.
--IOWA is 37-15 ATS in their last 52 home games.
--Over is 7-3 in IOWA last 10 home games.
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#825 VIRGINIA TECH @ #826 NOTRE DAME
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Notre Dame -10.5, Total: N/A) - One struggling team will pick up a much-needed Atlantic Coast Conference victory when Notre Dame hosts Virginia Tech on Sunday. Both teams are coming off tough losses and looking to snap three-game skids. It's the first meeting between the new ACC rivals since 2004, when the teams were Big East foes and Notre Dame won 74-63 at Virginia Tech.
The Fighting Irish knocked off then-No. 8 Duke on Jan. 4 but have since lost three straight by a combined 20 points, including a 74-66 defeat at Maryland on Wednesday. "You're just not going to win a game giving up 20 offensive rebounds and turning the ball over 17 times," Notre Dame coach Mike Brey told reporters. "Disappointing for us. We're struggling a little bit right now." The Hokies have lost five of six -- all at home -- but they actually won their only previous road game of the season, 61-60 in overtime at Miami on Dec. 8.
•ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (8-8 SU, 5-6-0 ATS, 1-3 ACC): The Hokies have had a different leading scorer in each of their last five games, but the balance hasn't led to success as they've averaged just 58.8 points over that span. Senior forward Jarell Eddie leads the team in scoring (15.3) and rebounds (5.9) but the freshman backcourt duo of Ben Emelogu (11.5 points) and Devin Wilson (7.6 points, 4.8 assists) appears ready to take the torch. The inexperienced guards have done a nice job of taking care of the ball lately, as the Hokies have committed fewer than 10 turnovers in four straight games.
•ABOUT NOTRE DAME (10-7 SU, 5-9-1 ATS, 1-3 ACC): The Irish are trying to avoid their first four-game skid since losing seven straight during the 2008-09 season. They certainly miss Jerian Grant, who led the team in scoring (19) and assists (6.2) before leaving the school over an academic issue last month. Notre Dame's senior leaders are doing their part to pick up the slack, as point guard Eric Atkins has averaged 17.3 points while hitting double digits in six straight games and center Garrick Sherman has scored in double figures in 14 straight while recording five double-doubles in the last nine contests.
•PREGAME NOTES: Notre Dame will induct former head coach Digger Phelps into its Ring of Honor during a ceremony at halftime.... The Hokies are 0-20 under coach James Johnson when shooting a lower percentage from the field than their opponent.... The Irish are 8-0 when outrebounding their opponent.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA TECH covered the spread 507 times, while NOTRE DAME covered the spread 493 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, NOTRE DAME won the game straight up 774 times, while VIRGINIA TECH won 206 times. In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA TECH covered the first half line 506 times, while NOTRE DAME covered the first half line 452 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NOTRE DAME is 3-0 against the spread versus VIRGINIA TECH since 1997.
--NOTRE DAME is 3-0 straight up against VIRGINIA TECH since 1997.
--NOTRE DAME is 2-1 versus the first half line when playing against VIRGINIA TECH since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--VT is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
--VT is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Over is 9-4 in VT last 13 road games.
--ND is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--ND is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Over is 4-1 in ND last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.
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#827 OREGON @ #828 OREGON ST
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Oregon -2.5, Total: N/A) - Oregon State hosts Oregon on Sunday night in the longest-running series in NCAA history. The Ducks enter on a three-game losing streak that not only ousted them from the top 25 but landed them near the bottom of the Pac-12 standings. Oregon had a similar three-game losing streak during conference play last season, then regrouped to win the conference tournament and advance to the Sweet 16.
Oregon remains one of the best offensive teams in the nation, ranking near the top in scoring and shooting percentage. The Ducks might have the deepest and most talented group of guards led by Houston transfer Joseph Young, who is averaging a team-high 18.8 points but is coming off his worst game of the season, a 5-point effort on 1-for-7 shooting in an 82-80 loss to Stanford last Sunday. Oregon State has a talented scoring guard as well in Roberto Nelson, who’s averaging 21.4 points with at least 16 points scored in his last eight games.
•ABOUT OREGON (13-3 SU, 8-5-2 ATS, 1-3 Pac-12): Mike Moser certainly can’t be faulted for the three-game losing streak. The Nevada-Las Vegas transfer is playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 21 points while shooting 10-for-20 from 3-point range during the skid. Moser had a five-game stretch earlier this season in which he combined for 18 turnovers, but he doesn’t have more than two in any of the last six games.
•ABOUT OREGON STATE (9-7 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, 1-3 Pac-12): The Beavers are hoping Devon Collier breaks out of his 2014 slump. He has been limited to single digits in the last four games after scoring in double figures in his first 11 games this season. Even more troubling, his rebounding totals have declined each of the last four games, as the 6-8 forward grabbed just two boards in last weekend’s loss to California.
•PREGAME NOTES: Oregon State and Oregon will be meeting for an NCAA-record 339th time, the Beavers holding a 184-154 advantage.... Oregon State is shooting 53 percent from beyond the 3-point arc in Pac-12 play after shooting 35 percent in non-conference action.... The Ducks have forced their opponents to commit 10 or more turnovers in 14 of 16 games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OREGON covered the spread 597 times, while OREGON ST covered the spread 403 times. *EDGE against the spread =OREGON. In 1000 simulated games, OREGON won the game straight up 653 times, while OREGON ST won 319 times. In 1000 simulated games, OREGON covered the first half line 552 times, while OREGON ST covered the first half line 448 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OREGON is 18-14 against the spread versus OREGON ST since 1997.
--OREGON is 24-8 straight up against OREGON ST since 1997.
--14 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OREGON ST is 17-14 versus the first half line when playing against OREGON since 1997.
--11 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Ducks are 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Ducks are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Oregon St.
--Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Oregon St.
--Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ORE is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
--ORE is 5-16-2 ATS in their last 23 vs. Pacific-12.
--Over is 20-6 in ORE last 26 overall.
--ORST is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.
--ORST is 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.
--Under is 5-1 in ORST last 6 games following a ATS loss.
_______________________________
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________
***** Sunday, 1/19/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
__________________________________________
Sunday's Notebook
•Houston is 5-7 in its last dozen games after losing by 39 at Louisville in last game Thursday; Cougars are 9-1 versus teams outside top 150, losing to San Jose at home Dec 7. Four of their last six games were decided by 4 or less points. Rutgers is 0-3 in true road games, losing by 3-6-20 points; they're 7-4 versus teams ranked outside top 100. AAC single digit home favorites are 3-6 versus spread.
•Wright State swept Cleveland State by 16-9 points LY, after losing six in row to Vikings before that; Raiders lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 9-5-19-22 points. Horizon home favorites are 12-7 versus spread, but 3-6 if number was less than six points. Wright lost by 10 at home to Green Bay Friday, just their second loss in last eight games. Cleveland State won both its Horizon home games, by 10 points each.
•Minnesota is 3-2 in Big Dozen, with four of five games decided by 3 or less points or in OT; Iowa won three of last four games with Gophers, with three of four decided by 4 or less points. Minnesota lost last two visits here by 4-21 points. Iowa is 3-1 in league, winning by 10-26-10 points; their only loss was by 4 at Wisconsin, when McCaffery got two technical’s when Iowa led. Big Dozen single digit home favorites are 1-9 versus spread.
•Louisiana Tech won its last seven games, with an OT win at Oklahoma; Bulldogs force turnovers 22.9% of time, have #11 eFG% defense in US,. are 2-3 versus top 100 teams, 11-0 if they allow less than 70 points, 4-3 if they allow 70+. Southern Mississippi is 7-0 at home, 1-1 versus teams in top 100. winning by point at North Dakota State, losing at Louisville by 31. C-USA home favorites of 7 or less points are 4-8 versus spread.
•Green Bay won four of last five games with Ill-Chicago; home teams are 8-1 in last nine series games- Phoenix lost three of last four visits here, losing by 7-2-3 points. Green Bay won its last nine games; this is their fourth road game in row, beating Wright State Friday. Horizon favorites of 6+ points are 10-1 versus spread this season. UIC lost its last nine games, losing last two conference games by total of nine points.
•Bowling Green beat Western Michigan last two years by 24-10 points; Falcons lost four of last five games, with three of four losses away from home- they're turning ball over 22.5% of time, and are 1-4 on road, with three losses by 12+ points. MAC single digit home favorites are 3-6 versus spread. WMU scored 37 points in loss to Eastern Michigan last game, after they scored 83+ points in winning previous four games.
•Charleston won five of last six games; they're turning ball over 20.4% of time; their eFG% is #253 in nation. Cougars are shooting 49% from arc in Colonial Athletic Association play, only 38% inside it. Towson won its last four games, winning first two CAA games by 8-12 points; they're forcing 3rd-least turnovers in US, but their eFG% defense is #34. CAA home favorites of 5 or less points are 0-6 versus spread.
•Notre Dame is struggling without leading scorer Grant, losing last three games since upsetting Duke at home; Irish are 3-5 in last eight games; all three wins were by 7 or less points. Atlantic Coast Conference double digit home favorites are 2-3 versus spread. Virginia Tech lost five of last six games, losing last two ACC games by total of 10 points. Hokies force 2nd-least turnovers in country, but they defend well, with the #41 eFG% defense.
•Oregon won five of last six games with Oregon State, winning last three visits here by 4-1-13 points; Ducks lost last three games after starting year 13-0, giving up 92.7 ppg in losses. Pac-12 home underdogs are 5-5 versus spread. Both teams are 1-3 in Pac-12; Beavers' three losses are by 6-11-5 points. Three of Oregon's last six wins came in OT. State is 9-7 in spite of making 40.4% from arc, #17 in country.
•Canisius (-10) beat Monmouth 87-67 last Sunday, making 14-30 from arc; Griffins lead Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference with 6-1 record, winning by hoop in last game at Iona Friday after blowing 20-point halftime lead- they're 3-5 in true road games, with last two road wins by total of six points. Monmouth is 2-5 in its first year in MAAC; four of five losses were by 9+. MAAC home underdogs are 4-6 against the spread.
•Iona (-3.5) won 87-78 at Siena last Sunday, making 15-30 from arc in a game they trailed by 3 with 7:12 left- they're 6-1 in last seven games versus Siena, winning last two here by 4-19 points. Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference double digit home favorites are 5-6 versus spread. Gaels had 23-0 run Friday but still lost by 2 to Canisius Friday. Siena is 1-3 on MAAC road, with losses by 15-4-22 points; they turn ball over 22.3% of time, have #286 eFG%.
•SMU won at Central Florida yesterday afternoon; they played five subs double digit minutes, no one more than 27 since they have makeup game here with Hofstra. Mustangs hold opponents to 38.8% inside arc, best mark in US- this is their third game in five days and they've got league game versus Rutgers on Tuesday. Hofstra won last two games after a 4-11 start; they haven't played since Wednesday.
Trends of The Day
-- RUTGERS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was RUTGERS 61.9, OPPONENT 65.4.
-- MINNESOTA is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 68.2, OPPONENT 60.6.
-- W MICHIGAN is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was W MICHIGAN 30.0, OPPONENT 33.0.
-- WRIGHT ST is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus good shooting teams - making >=47% of their shots over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WRIGHT ST 27.5, OPPONENT 26.6.
-- FRAN MCCAFFERY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games as the coach of IOWA.
The average score was MCCAFFERY 71.1, OPPONENT 67.0.
Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Home teams as a favorite or pick (W MICHIGAN) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after scoring 50 points or less.
(35-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.1%, +22.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (19-28 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.4
The average score in these games was: Team 60.4, Opponent 64.4 (Average point differential = -4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (28.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (27-7).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (74-41).
-- Play On - A home team of 6 or more points versus the first half line (IONA) - after allowing 85 points or more against opponent after allowing 85 points or more 2 straight games.
(26-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.7%, +21.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 38.2, Opponent 28 (Average first half point differential = +10.3)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-0).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (62-48).
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Sunday's Match-ups
#811 RUTGERS @ #812 HOUSTON
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS Sports Network - Line: Houston -4.5, Total: N/A) - After a rough first semester, Junior Etou continues to make positive strides for Rutgers, which will play the first of two games in Texas on Sunday at Houston. The freshman, who didn't play in the Scarlet Knights' first six games, set career highs with 14 points and 37 minutes in Wednesday's victory over Central Florida. "I'm glad he is here with us," head coach Eddie Jordan told the Star-Ledger of the 6-7, 225-pound Etou. "I'm glad he got over his first semester freshman blues. He has a will to win and to do things right. I am glad we have him. He is very special."
The Cougars will be looking to shake off some blues of their own, a result of last week's 39-point loss to defending national champion Louisville. After winning three straight games, including its first two in the American Athletic Conference, James Dickey's team has dropped games to Cincinnati and 14th-ranked Louisville, which made 15 3-pointers against the Cougars. "We need to close out with a great sense of urgency," Dickey told reporters of his team's 3-point defense, or lack thereof. "They utilized the weapon extremely well. We just have to close out with a quicker sense of urgency and get our hands up to discourage shots and challenge shots better."
•ABOUT RUTGERS (8-9 SU, 8-7-0 ATS, 2-2 AAC): Junior guard Myles Mack, who leads the team in scoring at 16.8 per game, became the 40th player in Rutgers history to join the 1,000-point club in the win over Central Florida. "The beginning of the game I guess I was thinking about it so much, that's why I didn't come out too strong," Mack told reporters. "After that, I got it off my mind. After the four points (needed for 1,000) , I came out and gave it my all." Mack finished with 25 points and Jerome Seagears returned from missing a game with an ankle injury to get 18 points as the Scarlet Knights snapped a two-game losing streak.
•ABOUT HOUSTON (10-7 SU, 7-5-0 ATS, 2-2 AAC): The return of starters Danuel House and L.J. Rose wasn't much help against Louisville, but it should make a big difference against the Scarlet Knights. House missed nine games due to surgery on his right knee, and a foot injury kept the point guard Rose out for five games. "I'm more optimistic now than I was earlier," Dickey told the media of the team's injury situation, which also includes forward J.J. Richardson, who didn't play against Louisville due to a foot injury. "At one point I was concerned if we'd get any of the three back."
•PREGAME NOTES: Mack became the first Rutgers player to get 1,000 points as a junior since Quincy Douby in 2005.... Houston won the only meeting between the teams 95-84 in December 1973.... House is second in scoring with 13.9 per game for the Cougars, behind TaShawn Thomas' 16.9 per contest.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, RUTGERS covered the spread 517 times, while HOUSTON covered the spread 483 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON won the game straight up 588 times, while RUTGERS won 378 times. In 1000 simulated games, RUTGERS covered the first half line 516 times, while HOUSTON covered the first half line 484 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1997: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--RUTG is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Over is 8-2 in RUTG last 10 overall.
--Under is 9-4 in RUTG last 13 road games.
--HOU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
--Under is 7-2 in HOU last 9 overall.
--Under is 7-1 in HOU last 8 home games.
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#815 MINNESOTA @ #816 IOWA
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Iowa -9, Total: N/A) - It's not easy getting attention in the Big Ten sometimes. With Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State garnering much of the national spotlight, teams like Iowa and Minnesota - which meet Sunday on the Hawkeyes' home court - can get lost in the shuffle. The Hawkeyes have claimed some attention after winning at Ohio State a week ago, moving up in the national rankings because of it, while the Gophers are still looking for that attention-grabbing win.
Beating the Hawkeyes would certainly help first-year coach Richard Pitino's national credibility, but that won't be easy. Iowa's only losses this year have been to nationally-ranked Villanova, Iowa State and Wisconsin, and the Hawkeyes have won 19 straight at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Still, Pitino's squad took Michigan State to overtime on the road and is coming off its own win over the Buckeyes as well.
•ABOUT MINNESOTA (14-4 SU, 6-8-1 ATS, 3-2 Big Ten): One of the big — though not literally — weapons the Gophers have at their disposal is 5-9 point guard DeAndre Mathieu, who continues to improve at his position as he learns on the job. The junior college transfer has been the starter from the beginning of this season, and Pitino sees him as a valuable asset going forward as he continues to learn how to play. “He needs to stop trying to drive in amongst the trees when there's two or three guys in there,” Pitino told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. “He's got to be smarter about his attempts, and (against Ohio State), he was about to drive it, they backed up, he knocked down two or three open shots, which was big.”
•ABOUT IOWA (14-3 SU, 10-5-0 ATS, 3-1 Big Ten): The Hawkeyes are hoping some home cooking can help lead them to a conference title. Iowa will host each of the top three teams in the league standings as well as Ohio State in the coming weeks, and with Carver-Hawkeye Arena scheduled to be sold out for each of them, the Hawkeyes should have quite an advantage. “We're just really excited that it's going to be like that,” Iowa coach Fran McCaffery told the Iowa City Press-Citizen. “I don't think there is any question we'd all agree that you're going to play better in that atmosphere.”
•PREGAME NOTES: The Golden Gophers rank No. 1 in the Big Ten in both steals per game (8.4) and free-throw percentage (.755).... Iowa F Melsahn Basabe has posted a double-double in each of the Hawkeyes' last two games.... The Hawkeyes have gotten the better of the Gophers in this matchup, leading 54-40, including winning the last matchup by 21.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA covered the spread 580 times, while MINNESOTA covered the spread 396 times. *EDGE against the spread =IOWA. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA won the game straight up 786 times, while MINNESOTA won 198 times. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA covered the first half line 483 times, while MINNESOTA covered the first half line 475 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MINNESOTA is 17-12 against the spread versus IOWA since 1997.
--IOWA is 16-14 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1997.
--11 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--IOWA is 16-14 versus the first half line when playing against MINNESOTA since 1997.
--10 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Golden Gophers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Golden Gophers are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Iowa.
--Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Iowa.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MINN is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games.
--Under is 6-2 in MINN last 8 Sun. games.
--Under is 12-4 in MINN last 16 vs. Big Ten.
--IOWA is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 vs. Big Ten.
--IOWA is 37-15 ATS in their last 52 home games.
--Over is 7-3 in IOWA last 10 home games.
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#825 VIRGINIA TECH @ #826 NOTRE DAME
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Notre Dame -10.5, Total: N/A) - One struggling team will pick up a much-needed Atlantic Coast Conference victory when Notre Dame hosts Virginia Tech on Sunday. Both teams are coming off tough losses and looking to snap three-game skids. It's the first meeting between the new ACC rivals since 2004, when the teams were Big East foes and Notre Dame won 74-63 at Virginia Tech.
The Fighting Irish knocked off then-No. 8 Duke on Jan. 4 but have since lost three straight by a combined 20 points, including a 74-66 defeat at Maryland on Wednesday. "You're just not going to win a game giving up 20 offensive rebounds and turning the ball over 17 times," Notre Dame coach Mike Brey told reporters. "Disappointing for us. We're struggling a little bit right now." The Hokies have lost five of six -- all at home -- but they actually won their only previous road game of the season, 61-60 in overtime at Miami on Dec. 8.
•ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (8-8 SU, 5-6-0 ATS, 1-3 ACC): The Hokies have had a different leading scorer in each of their last five games, but the balance hasn't led to success as they've averaged just 58.8 points over that span. Senior forward Jarell Eddie leads the team in scoring (15.3) and rebounds (5.9) but the freshman backcourt duo of Ben Emelogu (11.5 points) and Devin Wilson (7.6 points, 4.8 assists) appears ready to take the torch. The inexperienced guards have done a nice job of taking care of the ball lately, as the Hokies have committed fewer than 10 turnovers in four straight games.
•ABOUT NOTRE DAME (10-7 SU, 5-9-1 ATS, 1-3 ACC): The Irish are trying to avoid their first four-game skid since losing seven straight during the 2008-09 season. They certainly miss Jerian Grant, who led the team in scoring (19) and assists (6.2) before leaving the school over an academic issue last month. Notre Dame's senior leaders are doing their part to pick up the slack, as point guard Eric Atkins has averaged 17.3 points while hitting double digits in six straight games and center Garrick Sherman has scored in double figures in 14 straight while recording five double-doubles in the last nine contests.
•PREGAME NOTES: Notre Dame will induct former head coach Digger Phelps into its Ring of Honor during a ceremony at halftime.... The Hokies are 0-20 under coach James Johnson when shooting a lower percentage from the field than their opponent.... The Irish are 8-0 when outrebounding their opponent.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA TECH covered the spread 507 times, while NOTRE DAME covered the spread 493 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, NOTRE DAME won the game straight up 774 times, while VIRGINIA TECH won 206 times. In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA TECH covered the first half line 506 times, while NOTRE DAME covered the first half line 452 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NOTRE DAME is 3-0 against the spread versus VIRGINIA TECH since 1997.
--NOTRE DAME is 3-0 straight up against VIRGINIA TECH since 1997.
--NOTRE DAME is 2-1 versus the first half line when playing against VIRGINIA TECH since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--VT is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
--VT is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Over is 9-4 in VT last 13 road games.
--ND is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--ND is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Over is 4-1 in ND last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.
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#827 OREGON @ #828 OREGON ST
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Oregon -2.5, Total: N/A) - Oregon State hosts Oregon on Sunday night in the longest-running series in NCAA history. The Ducks enter on a three-game losing streak that not only ousted them from the top 25 but landed them near the bottom of the Pac-12 standings. Oregon had a similar three-game losing streak during conference play last season, then regrouped to win the conference tournament and advance to the Sweet 16.
Oregon remains one of the best offensive teams in the nation, ranking near the top in scoring and shooting percentage. The Ducks might have the deepest and most talented group of guards led by Houston transfer Joseph Young, who is averaging a team-high 18.8 points but is coming off his worst game of the season, a 5-point effort on 1-for-7 shooting in an 82-80 loss to Stanford last Sunday. Oregon State has a talented scoring guard as well in Roberto Nelson, who’s averaging 21.4 points with at least 16 points scored in his last eight games.
•ABOUT OREGON (13-3 SU, 8-5-2 ATS, 1-3 Pac-12): Mike Moser certainly can’t be faulted for the three-game losing streak. The Nevada-Las Vegas transfer is playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 21 points while shooting 10-for-20 from 3-point range during the skid. Moser had a five-game stretch earlier this season in which he combined for 18 turnovers, but he doesn’t have more than two in any of the last six games.
•ABOUT OREGON STATE (9-7 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, 1-3 Pac-12): The Beavers are hoping Devon Collier breaks out of his 2014 slump. He has been limited to single digits in the last four games after scoring in double figures in his first 11 games this season. Even more troubling, his rebounding totals have declined each of the last four games, as the 6-8 forward grabbed just two boards in last weekend’s loss to California.
•PREGAME NOTES: Oregon State and Oregon will be meeting for an NCAA-record 339th time, the Beavers holding a 184-154 advantage.... Oregon State is shooting 53 percent from beyond the 3-point arc in Pac-12 play after shooting 35 percent in non-conference action.... The Ducks have forced their opponents to commit 10 or more turnovers in 14 of 16 games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OREGON covered the spread 597 times, while OREGON ST covered the spread 403 times. *EDGE against the spread =OREGON. In 1000 simulated games, OREGON won the game straight up 653 times, while OREGON ST won 319 times. In 1000 simulated games, OREGON covered the first half line 552 times, while OREGON ST covered the first half line 448 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OREGON is 18-14 against the spread versus OREGON ST since 1997.
--OREGON is 24-8 straight up against OREGON ST since 1997.
--14 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OREGON ST is 17-14 versus the first half line when playing against OREGON since 1997.
--11 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Ducks are 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Ducks are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Oregon St.
--Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Oregon St.
--Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ORE is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
--ORE is 5-16-2 ATS in their last 23 vs. Pacific-12.
--Over is 20-6 in ORE last 26 overall.
--ORST is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.
--ORST is 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.
--Under is 5-1 in ORST last 6 games following a ATS loss.
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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/19/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 1/19/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting Notes - Sunday
•Hot Teams
-- Raptors won four of last five games, covered nine of last ten.
-- Sacramento won four of last six games (5-1 vs. spread). Thunder won three of last four games (covered last three at home).
-- Spurs won six of last seven games (0-3 vs. spread last three).
-- Nuggets won six of their last eight games.
•Cold Teams
-- Lakers lost six of last seven games, but covered last three.
-- Orlando lost its last ten games (1-9 vs. spread). Celtics lost 10 of last 11 games, covered last three on road.
-- Milwaukee lost its last eight games (2-6 vs. spread).
-- Suns lost four of their last five games.
•Totals
-- Seven of last nine Toronto home games went over.
-- 11 of last 15 Orlando home games went over total.
-- Six of last eight Thunder home games stayed under.
-- Over is 13-4-1 in Spurs' last 18 home games.
-- Last four Denver road games went over the total.
•Series Records
-- Lakers won seven of last ten games with Toronto (1-2 last three).
-- Celtics won their last ten games with Orlando.
-- Thunder won seven in row, 12 of last 13 versus Sacramento.
-- Spurs won seven of last eight games with Milwaukee.
-- Suns are 2-0 versus Denver this year, winning by 11-4 points.
Trends of The Day
-- MILWAUKEE is 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 92.6, OPPONENT 103.6.
-- ORLANDO is 17-5 OVER (+11.5 Units) in home games versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 97.0, OPPONENT 106.2.
-- PHOENIX is 14-4 (+9.6 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season.
The average score was PHOENIX 52.9, OPPONENT 51.3.
-- PHOENIX is 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was PHOENIX 57.8, OPPONENT 54.4.
-- JACQUE VAUGHN is 25-54 ATS (-34.4 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game as the coach of ORLANDO.
The average score was VAUGHN 93.6, OPPONENT 102.3.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (DENVER) - double revenge - 2 straight losses versus opponent against opponent off a close home loss by 3 points or less.
(30-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.2%, +25.9 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -102.5
The average score in these games was: Team 105.8, Opponent 98.6 (Average point differential = +7.2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-1, +15.1 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (122-36, +44.2 units).
-- Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a loss by 6 points or less.
(84-39 since 1996.) (68.3%, +41.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (81-46)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.9
The average score in these games was: Team 98.2, Opponent 96.3 (Average point differential = +2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 49 (39.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (28-14).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more.
(30-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.1%, +22.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 216.9
The average score in these games was: Team 99.8, Opponent 105.2 (Total points scored = 205)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (59.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (62-44).
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Sunday's Match-ups
#801 LA LAKERS @ #802 TORONTO
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, TWC SportsNet Los Angeles, TSN Toronto - Line: Raptors -9.5, Total: 204) - The Toronto Raptors look to sweep a season series from the Los Angeles Lakers for the first time in franchise history when the teams meet Sunday afternoon in Toronto. The Raptors are 8-26 all-time versus the Lakers but claimed a 106-94 victory at Los Angeles on Dec. 8, and have won two of the last three meetings overall. The win in the first encounter last month was the start of Toronto's turnaround, as the squad entered the contest 6-12 but has gone 14-6 since.
Included in that run was a 94-89 win over Minnesota on Friday - the Raptors' sixth straight victory at home. The Lakers are coming off a dramatic 107-104 comeback win at Boston in an encounter that saw them erase a late eight-point deficit. Paul Gasol had perhaps his best overall stat line of the season with 24 points, 13 rebounds, six assists and zero turnovers in 36 minutes as Los Angeles ended a six-game losing streak.
•ABOUT THE LAKERS (15-25 SU, 21-18-1 ATS): While his team's season has continued to trend in the wrong direction, Gasol has done his best to keep the Lakers afloat. He is averaging 20.3 points, 11.8 rebounds and five assists this month and is 28-for-48 from the floor over his last three contests. Fellow big man Ryan Kelly filled in for the suspended Nick Young in Boston and produced a personal-best 20 points.
•ABOUT THE RAPTORS (20-18 SU, 23-15-0 ATS): Kyle Lowry scored 23 points and handed out eight assists in the meeting with Los Angeles in December, part of the veteran's career-best campaign that continued Friday versus Minnesota. Lowry nailed a season-high six 3-pointers en route to a team-high 24 points, improving to 20-for-35 from long distance over his last five games. He has also produced 23 assists against five turnovers in the last three contests, and still ranks first among Eastern Conference point guards with a 3.43 assist-to-turnover ratio.
•PREGAME NOTES: Young is eligible to return after serving the suspension for throwing a punch in a game at Phoenix on Wednesday.... Toronto is nearing the end of a stretch in which it plays seven straight games against losing teams.... Lakers PG Kendall Marshall has posted four straight double-doubles, averaging 13.8 points and 13.3 assists in that span.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the spread 549 times, while LA LAKERS covered the spread 451 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO won the game straight up 750 times, while LA LAKERS won 233 times. In 1000 simulated games, 668 games went under the total, while 308 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, LA LAKERS covered the first half line 514 times, while TORONTO covered the first half line 486 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 642 games went under first half total, while 321 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TORONTO is 16-13 against the spread versus LA LAKERS since 1996.
--LA LAKERS is 24-8 straight up against TORONTO since 1996.
--19 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--TORONTO is 15-15 versus the first half line when playing against LA LAKERS since 1996.
--24 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Lakers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.
--Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Toronto.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Sunday games.
--Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
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#803 BOSTON @ #804 ORLANDO
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, CSN New England Boston, FSN Florida Orlando - Line: Celtics -2, Total: 195.5) - All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo is back in the lineup as the Boston Celtics try to begin turning their fortunes around Sunday when they visit the struggling Orlando Magic. Rondo, returning from knee surgery, had eight points in his season debut Friday against the Los Angeles Lakers as the Celtics lost for the 10th time in 11 games. The Magic have dropped 10 consecutive contests, their third double-digit slide since the start of last season, and own the league’s second-worst record.
Boston has beaten Orlando 10 straight, including two within four days in November, and Rondo gives them another threat on both ends. The Celtics won only two of their last 15 to fall well back of the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference and 3 1/2 ahead of the Magic. Leading scorer Arron Afflalo scored 24 in his return to the lineup for Orlando after missing three outings with a foot injury.
•ABOUT THE CELTICS (14-27 SU, 20-20-1 ATS): Rondo was limited to 19 minutes in his return, adding four assists and only one turnover, but should get more time against a tough Orlando backcourt. It will take time for Rondo to find a rhythm with backcourt mate Avery Bradley, who is second on the team in scoring (14.7) behind forward Jeff Green (15.6). Center Kelly Olynyk scored in double figures for the first time in January with a season-high 25 on Friday and forward Jared Sullinger is averaging 15.8 points and 11.6 rebounds in his last five outings.
•ABOUT THE MAGIC (10-30 SU, 16-24-0 ATS): Orlando continues to struggle inside with center Nikola Vucevic out of the lineup the last six games with a concussion and gave up 30 points to Charlotte center Al Jefferson on Friday. Former Celtic Glen Davis has played admirably, averaging 15.8 points and 8.7 rebounds the last half-dozen games at center, but Orlando is 0-12 overall without the 7-0 Vucevic in the lineup this season. Rookie of the Year candidate Victor Oladipo recorded his third double-double Friday with 11 points and 10 assists.
•PREGAME NOTES: Afflalo has led or shared the team’s scoring lead in 22 of his 36 outings and averages 20.9 points.... Boston G Jerryd Bayless has scored in double figures off the bench three times in seven games since being acquired from Memphis.... Orlando G Jameer Nelson is expected to play his 621st game with the team, tying Dwight Howard for second on the franchise’s all-time list.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ORLANDO covered the spread 539 times, while BOSTON covered the spread 434 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, BOSTON won the game straight up 488 times, while ORLANDO won 487 times. In 1000 simulated games, 537 games went under the total, while 463 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, ORLANDO covered the first half line 523 times, while BOSTON covered the first half line 427 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 527 games went under first half total, while 473 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BOSTON is 47-30 against the spread versus ORLANDO since 1996.
--BOSTON is 41-37 straight up against ORLANDO since 1996.
--39 of 75 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--BOSTON is 43-33 versus the first half line when playing against ORLANDO since 1996.
--46 of 74 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Celtics are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Celtics are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Orlando.
--Under is 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings in Orlando.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Celtics are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Celtics are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
--Celtics are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Magic are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Under is 4-0 in Magic last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
--Over is 5-0 in Magic last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
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#805 MILWAUKEE @ #806 SAN ANTONIO
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, FSN Wisconsin Milwaukee, FSN Southwest San Antonio - Line: Spurs -16, Total: 198) - Looking to get back on track after having a six-game winning streak snapped, the San Antonio Spurs seemingly have the perfect guest for a rebound when the Milwaukee Bucks visit Sunday night. The Bucks have lost eight straight and 16 of 18 and have the worst record in the NBA. The Spurs are coming off a tough 109-100 home loss to Portland, with whom they share the best record in the Western Conference.
San Antonio nearly pulled off a comeback against the Trail Blazers after coach Gregg Popovich was ejected for arguing with officials. The Spurs might not need such motivation against the lowly Bucks, though they could get caught looking ahead to another Western Conference showdown with Oklahoma City visiting on Wednesday. Milwaukee lost 114-104 at Houston on Saturday, dropping to 1-12 against Western Conference teams.
•ABOUT THE BUCKS (7-32 SU, 13-25-0 ATS): Bright spots have been hard to spot in Milwaukee, but the Bucks turned in one of their better offensive performances of the season against the Rockets. They shot 50 percent and hit triple digits for only the second time in their last 11 contests. Point guard Brandon Knight continued his recent tear with 26 points and has averaged 20.7 over the past 15 games.
•ABOUT THE SPURS (31-9 SU, 20-20-0 ATS): San Antonio's trademark depth has been tested with center Tiago Splitter (shoulder) and sharpshooter Danny Green (finger) out. Point guard Tony Parker, who leads the team in scoring (17.9) and assists (6.3), has been slowed by a bruised shin and reserve forward Matt Bonner suffered a broken nose on Friday. Veteran big man Tim Duncan has responded to the thinned bench by averaging 17.1 points and 10.4 rebounds over the past seven games.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Spurs have won the past three meetings and seven of the last eight including a 109-77 rout at Milwaukee on Dec. 11.... Milwaukee C Larry Sanders has scored in double digits in two straight games after doing so only twice in his first 12 contests this season.... San Antonio has scored 100 or more points in 11 straight games, its longest streak since the 1995-96 season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 624 times, while MILWAUKEE covered the spread 353 times. *EDGE against the spread =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 909 times, while MILWAUKEE won 78 times. In 1000 simulated games, 530 games went under the total, while 443 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 530 times, while MILWAUKEE covered the first half line 429 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 505 games went under first half total, while 451 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MILWAUKEE is 18-12 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 18-14 straight up against MILWAUKEE since 1996.
--17 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--MILWAUKEE is 19-13 versus the first half line when playing against SAN ANTONIO since 1996.
--16 of 31 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Bucks are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in San Antonio.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
--Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Sunday games.
--Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Over is 12-3-1 in Spurs last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 7-1-1 in Spurs last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
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#807 SACRAMENTO @ #808 OKLAHOMA CITY
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, CSN California Sacramento, FSN Oklahoma City - Line: Thunder -8, Total: 211) - Kevin Durant is coming off a career-best scoring outing and seeks to continue a stretch of high-scoring games when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Sacramento Kings on Sunday. Durant scored 54 points – the most in the NBA this season – in Friday’s victory over the Golden State Warriors and has scored 30 points or more in 10 of the past 12 games. Durant is averaging 36.3 points during the hot streak and leads the league with a 30.6 scoring average.
Sacramento center DeMarcus Cousins also is working on an impressive streak with 13 consecutive double-doubles. Cousins has developed into a legitimate All-Star candidate in his fourth NBA season and is averaging 24.5 points and 13.5 rebounds during the stretch. The Kings have won four of their past six games and are 1-2 entering the fourth game of a six-game road excursion. The Thunder have won three of their last four games.
•ABOUT THE KINGS (14-24 SU, 17-20-1 ATS): Cousins’ double-double streak matches the best the franchise has seen in its Sacramento tenure, also accomplished by LaSalle Thompson in the mid-1980s. The big man is averaging 23.4 points and 11.7 rebounds and joins Portland’s LaMarcus Aldridge and Minnesota’s Kevin Love as the only players averaging at least 23 points and 11 boards. Point guard Isaiah Thomas has flourished as a starter with 14 20-point outings in 20 starts but has also scored 14 or fewer points in three of the past five games.
•ABOUT THE THUNDER (30-10 SU, 22-18-0 ATS): Durant has stepped up in his scoring duties with star point guard Russell Westbrook sidelined and the huge outing against the Warriors was also highly efficient as he made 19-of-28 field-goal attempts. The recent stretch of stellar games has increased chatter that the Oklahoma City forward is the leader in the league’s MVP derby. “It’s premature,” Durant said after his third career 50-point outing. “It’s way too early in the season. I try not to think about that type of stuff. Of course, as a player, you’d love to win an MVP award but I can’t take my focus off the team. Every day, I’ve just got to keep chipping away, keep enjoying the process and we’ll see what happens.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Oklahoma City has defeated Sacramento seven straight times, including a 97-95 road victory on Dec. 3.... Thunder C Kendrick Perkins had a season-high 12 rebounds in the win over Golden State.... The Kings have failed to reach 100 points in two of the past three games after reaching the century mark in 12 consecutive outings.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 589 times, while SACRAMENTO covered the spread 390 times. *EDGE against the spread =OKLAHOMA CITY. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY won the game straight up 762 times, while SACRAMENTO won 223 times. In 1000 simulated games, 570 games went under the total, while 413 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 525 times, while SACRAMENTO covered the first half line 475 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 569 games went under first half total, while 431 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =Under.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-35 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 42-29 straight up against SACRAMENTO since 1996.
--43 of 70 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-33 versus the first half line when playing against SACRAMENTO since 1996.
--44 of 69 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Kings are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Kings are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Oklahoma City.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Sunday games.
--Over is 7-0 in Kings last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 7-0 in Kings last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
--Under is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 overall.
--Under is 9-0 in Thunder last 9 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
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#809 DENVER @ #810 PHOENIX
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, Altitude Denver, FSN Arizona Phoenix - Line: Suns -1, Total: 219.5) - The Phoenix Suns look to defeat Denver for the third straight time this season when they host the Nuggets on Sunday. The Suns overcame a double-digit halftime deficit in one of the contests and the victories could prove beneficial as the teams figure to be among a group of squads battling for the final playoff spots in the Western Conference. Phoenix lost to the Dallas Mavericks on Friday while Denver succumbed to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Nuggets point guard Ty Lawson was highly upset after the home loss to the Cavaliers. “These games should be in the win column, we should get these,” Lawson said. “This playoff race is going to get deep, our last month is tough, so we have to get these games right now and solidify our spot.” The Suns have been struggling since losing guard Eric Bledsoe, who was forming a potent double point-guard backcourt with Goran Dragic. Phoenix is 3-6 since Bledsoe was lost to a knee injury.
•ABOUT THE NUGGETS (20-19 SU, 18-21-0 ATS): Denver hoisted a season-high 37 3-point attempts in the loss to Cleveland but lost by eight despite making nine more 3-pointers (14 to 5) than the Cavaliers. Forward Wilson Chandler made five 3-pointers en route to a season-best 23 points and Lawson contributed 19 points and 11 assists. Lawson has recorded double-doubles in eight of the past nine games and is averaging 18.7 points and 11.4 assists during the stretch. The Nuggets are averaging 115 points in January but have also allowed 108 or more points six times.
•ABOUT THE SUNS (22-17 SU, 25-13-1 ATS): Backup forward Markieff Morris has terrorized the Nuggets this season and enters this contest on a roll. Morris is averaging 23.5 points and 9.5 rebounds over the last two games and has season averages of 26.5 points and eight rebounds against Denver. Morris had 28 points on 10-of-13 shooting in one of the games against the Nuggets and 25 points in the other. The third-year pro is averaging 12.1 points and six boards while playing 24.8 minutes.
•PREGAME NOTES: Denver had beaten Phoenix seven of the previous eight times before dropping this season’s first two meetings.... Dragic has scored 28 points in two of the past three games.... Nuggets F Darrell Arthur (groin) has missed three straight games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PHOENIX covered the spread 543 times, while DENVER covered the spread 428 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, PHOENIX won the game straight up 572 times, while DENVER won 409 times. In 1000 simulated games, 808 games went under the total, while 192 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, PHOENIX covered the first half line 547 times, while DENVER covered the first half line 453 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 725 games went under first half total, while 275 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PHOENIX is 31-29 against the spread versus DENVER since 1996.
--PHOENIX is 40-25 straight up against DENVER since 1996.
--31 of 62 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--DENVER is 33-31 versus the first half line when playing against PHOENIX since 1996.
--35 of 61 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Nuggets are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Nuggets are 4-10 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Phoenix.
--Favorite is 16-7-1 ATS in the last 24 meetings.
--Home team is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 overall.
--Over is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 road games.
--Over is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Sunday games.
--Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Over is 4-0-1 in Suns last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
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NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 1/19/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting Notes - Sunday
•Hot Teams
-- Raptors won four of last five games, covered nine of last ten.
-- Sacramento won four of last six games (5-1 vs. spread). Thunder won three of last four games (covered last three at home).
-- Spurs won six of last seven games (0-3 vs. spread last three).
-- Nuggets won six of their last eight games.
•Cold Teams
-- Lakers lost six of last seven games, but covered last three.
-- Orlando lost its last ten games (1-9 vs. spread). Celtics lost 10 of last 11 games, covered last three on road.
-- Milwaukee lost its last eight games (2-6 vs. spread).
-- Suns lost four of their last five games.
•Totals
-- Seven of last nine Toronto home games went over.
-- 11 of last 15 Orlando home games went over total.
-- Six of last eight Thunder home games stayed under.
-- Over is 13-4-1 in Spurs' last 18 home games.
-- Last four Denver road games went over the total.
•Series Records
-- Lakers won seven of last ten games with Toronto (1-2 last three).
-- Celtics won their last ten games with Orlando.
-- Thunder won seven in row, 12 of last 13 versus Sacramento.
-- Spurs won seven of last eight games with Milwaukee.
-- Suns are 2-0 versus Denver this year, winning by 11-4 points.
Trends of The Day
-- MILWAUKEE is 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 92.6, OPPONENT 103.6.
-- ORLANDO is 17-5 OVER (+11.5 Units) in home games versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 97.0, OPPONENT 106.2.
-- PHOENIX is 14-4 (+9.6 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season.
The average score was PHOENIX 52.9, OPPONENT 51.3.
-- PHOENIX is 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was PHOENIX 57.8, OPPONENT 54.4.
-- JACQUE VAUGHN is 25-54 ATS (-34.4 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game as the coach of ORLANDO.
The average score was VAUGHN 93.6, OPPONENT 102.3.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (DENVER) - double revenge - 2 straight losses versus opponent against opponent off a close home loss by 3 points or less.
(30-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.2%, +25.9 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -102.5
The average score in these games was: Team 105.8, Opponent 98.6 (Average point differential = +7.2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-1, +15.1 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (122-36, +44.2 units).
-- Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a loss by 6 points or less.
(84-39 since 1996.) (68.3%, +41.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (81-46)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.9
The average score in these games was: Team 98.2, Opponent 96.3 (Average point differential = +2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 49 (39.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (28-14).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more.
(30-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.1%, +22.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 216.9
The average score in these games was: Team 99.8, Opponent 105.2 (Total points scored = 205)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (59.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (62-44).
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Sunday's Match-ups
#801 LA LAKERS @ #802 TORONTO
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, TWC SportsNet Los Angeles, TSN Toronto - Line: Raptors -9.5, Total: 204) - The Toronto Raptors look to sweep a season series from the Los Angeles Lakers for the first time in franchise history when the teams meet Sunday afternoon in Toronto. The Raptors are 8-26 all-time versus the Lakers but claimed a 106-94 victory at Los Angeles on Dec. 8, and have won two of the last three meetings overall. The win in the first encounter last month was the start of Toronto's turnaround, as the squad entered the contest 6-12 but has gone 14-6 since.
Included in that run was a 94-89 win over Minnesota on Friday - the Raptors' sixth straight victory at home. The Lakers are coming off a dramatic 107-104 comeback win at Boston in an encounter that saw them erase a late eight-point deficit. Paul Gasol had perhaps his best overall stat line of the season with 24 points, 13 rebounds, six assists and zero turnovers in 36 minutes as Los Angeles ended a six-game losing streak.
•ABOUT THE LAKERS (15-25 SU, 21-18-1 ATS): While his team's season has continued to trend in the wrong direction, Gasol has done his best to keep the Lakers afloat. He is averaging 20.3 points, 11.8 rebounds and five assists this month and is 28-for-48 from the floor over his last three contests. Fellow big man Ryan Kelly filled in for the suspended Nick Young in Boston and produced a personal-best 20 points.
•ABOUT THE RAPTORS (20-18 SU, 23-15-0 ATS): Kyle Lowry scored 23 points and handed out eight assists in the meeting with Los Angeles in December, part of the veteran's career-best campaign that continued Friday versus Minnesota. Lowry nailed a season-high six 3-pointers en route to a team-high 24 points, improving to 20-for-35 from long distance over his last five games. He has also produced 23 assists against five turnovers in the last three contests, and still ranks first among Eastern Conference point guards with a 3.43 assist-to-turnover ratio.
•PREGAME NOTES: Young is eligible to return after serving the suspension for throwing a punch in a game at Phoenix on Wednesday.... Toronto is nearing the end of a stretch in which it plays seven straight games against losing teams.... Lakers PG Kendall Marshall has posted four straight double-doubles, averaging 13.8 points and 13.3 assists in that span.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the spread 549 times, while LA LAKERS covered the spread 451 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO won the game straight up 750 times, while LA LAKERS won 233 times. In 1000 simulated games, 668 games went under the total, while 308 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, LA LAKERS covered the first half line 514 times, while TORONTO covered the first half line 486 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 642 games went under first half total, while 321 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TORONTO is 16-13 against the spread versus LA LAKERS since 1996.
--LA LAKERS is 24-8 straight up against TORONTO since 1996.
--19 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--TORONTO is 15-15 versus the first half line when playing against LA LAKERS since 1996.
--24 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Lakers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.
--Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Toronto.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Sunday games.
--Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
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#803 BOSTON @ #804 ORLANDO
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, CSN New England Boston, FSN Florida Orlando - Line: Celtics -2, Total: 195.5) - All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo is back in the lineup as the Boston Celtics try to begin turning their fortunes around Sunday when they visit the struggling Orlando Magic. Rondo, returning from knee surgery, had eight points in his season debut Friday against the Los Angeles Lakers as the Celtics lost for the 10th time in 11 games. The Magic have dropped 10 consecutive contests, their third double-digit slide since the start of last season, and own the league’s second-worst record.
Boston has beaten Orlando 10 straight, including two within four days in November, and Rondo gives them another threat on both ends. The Celtics won only two of their last 15 to fall well back of the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference and 3 1/2 ahead of the Magic. Leading scorer Arron Afflalo scored 24 in his return to the lineup for Orlando after missing three outings with a foot injury.
•ABOUT THE CELTICS (14-27 SU, 20-20-1 ATS): Rondo was limited to 19 minutes in his return, adding four assists and only one turnover, but should get more time against a tough Orlando backcourt. It will take time for Rondo to find a rhythm with backcourt mate Avery Bradley, who is second on the team in scoring (14.7) behind forward Jeff Green (15.6). Center Kelly Olynyk scored in double figures for the first time in January with a season-high 25 on Friday and forward Jared Sullinger is averaging 15.8 points and 11.6 rebounds in his last five outings.
•ABOUT THE MAGIC (10-30 SU, 16-24-0 ATS): Orlando continues to struggle inside with center Nikola Vucevic out of the lineup the last six games with a concussion and gave up 30 points to Charlotte center Al Jefferson on Friday. Former Celtic Glen Davis has played admirably, averaging 15.8 points and 8.7 rebounds the last half-dozen games at center, but Orlando is 0-12 overall without the 7-0 Vucevic in the lineup this season. Rookie of the Year candidate Victor Oladipo recorded his third double-double Friday with 11 points and 10 assists.
•PREGAME NOTES: Afflalo has led or shared the team’s scoring lead in 22 of his 36 outings and averages 20.9 points.... Boston G Jerryd Bayless has scored in double figures off the bench three times in seven games since being acquired from Memphis.... Orlando G Jameer Nelson is expected to play his 621st game with the team, tying Dwight Howard for second on the franchise’s all-time list.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ORLANDO covered the spread 539 times, while BOSTON covered the spread 434 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, BOSTON won the game straight up 488 times, while ORLANDO won 487 times. In 1000 simulated games, 537 games went under the total, while 463 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, ORLANDO covered the first half line 523 times, while BOSTON covered the first half line 427 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 527 games went under first half total, while 473 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BOSTON is 47-30 against the spread versus ORLANDO since 1996.
--BOSTON is 41-37 straight up against ORLANDO since 1996.
--39 of 75 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--BOSTON is 43-33 versus the first half line when playing against ORLANDO since 1996.
--46 of 74 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Celtics are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Celtics are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Orlando.
--Under is 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings in Orlando.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Celtics are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Celtics are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
--Celtics are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Magic are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Under is 4-0 in Magic last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
--Over is 5-0 in Magic last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
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#805 MILWAUKEE @ #806 SAN ANTONIO
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, FSN Wisconsin Milwaukee, FSN Southwest San Antonio - Line: Spurs -16, Total: 198) - Looking to get back on track after having a six-game winning streak snapped, the San Antonio Spurs seemingly have the perfect guest for a rebound when the Milwaukee Bucks visit Sunday night. The Bucks have lost eight straight and 16 of 18 and have the worst record in the NBA. The Spurs are coming off a tough 109-100 home loss to Portland, with whom they share the best record in the Western Conference.
San Antonio nearly pulled off a comeback against the Trail Blazers after coach Gregg Popovich was ejected for arguing with officials. The Spurs might not need such motivation against the lowly Bucks, though they could get caught looking ahead to another Western Conference showdown with Oklahoma City visiting on Wednesday. Milwaukee lost 114-104 at Houston on Saturday, dropping to 1-12 against Western Conference teams.
•ABOUT THE BUCKS (7-32 SU, 13-25-0 ATS): Bright spots have been hard to spot in Milwaukee, but the Bucks turned in one of their better offensive performances of the season against the Rockets. They shot 50 percent and hit triple digits for only the second time in their last 11 contests. Point guard Brandon Knight continued his recent tear with 26 points and has averaged 20.7 over the past 15 games.
•ABOUT THE SPURS (31-9 SU, 20-20-0 ATS): San Antonio's trademark depth has been tested with center Tiago Splitter (shoulder) and sharpshooter Danny Green (finger) out. Point guard Tony Parker, who leads the team in scoring (17.9) and assists (6.3), has been slowed by a bruised shin and reserve forward Matt Bonner suffered a broken nose on Friday. Veteran big man Tim Duncan has responded to the thinned bench by averaging 17.1 points and 10.4 rebounds over the past seven games.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Spurs have won the past three meetings and seven of the last eight including a 109-77 rout at Milwaukee on Dec. 11.... Milwaukee C Larry Sanders has scored in double digits in two straight games after doing so only twice in his first 12 contests this season.... San Antonio has scored 100 or more points in 11 straight games, its longest streak since the 1995-96 season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 624 times, while MILWAUKEE covered the spread 353 times. *EDGE against the spread =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 909 times, while MILWAUKEE won 78 times. In 1000 simulated games, 530 games went under the total, while 443 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 530 times, while MILWAUKEE covered the first half line 429 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 505 games went under first half total, while 451 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MILWAUKEE is 18-12 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 18-14 straight up against MILWAUKEE since 1996.
--17 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--MILWAUKEE is 19-13 versus the first half line when playing against SAN ANTONIO since 1996.
--16 of 31 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Bucks are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in San Antonio.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
--Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Sunday games.
--Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Over is 12-3-1 in Spurs last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 7-1-1 in Spurs last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
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#807 SACRAMENTO @ #808 OKLAHOMA CITY
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, CSN California Sacramento, FSN Oklahoma City - Line: Thunder -8, Total: 211) - Kevin Durant is coming off a career-best scoring outing and seeks to continue a stretch of high-scoring games when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Sacramento Kings on Sunday. Durant scored 54 points – the most in the NBA this season – in Friday’s victory over the Golden State Warriors and has scored 30 points or more in 10 of the past 12 games. Durant is averaging 36.3 points during the hot streak and leads the league with a 30.6 scoring average.
Sacramento center DeMarcus Cousins also is working on an impressive streak with 13 consecutive double-doubles. Cousins has developed into a legitimate All-Star candidate in his fourth NBA season and is averaging 24.5 points and 13.5 rebounds during the stretch. The Kings have won four of their past six games and are 1-2 entering the fourth game of a six-game road excursion. The Thunder have won three of their last four games.
•ABOUT THE KINGS (14-24 SU, 17-20-1 ATS): Cousins’ double-double streak matches the best the franchise has seen in its Sacramento tenure, also accomplished by LaSalle Thompson in the mid-1980s. The big man is averaging 23.4 points and 11.7 rebounds and joins Portland’s LaMarcus Aldridge and Minnesota’s Kevin Love as the only players averaging at least 23 points and 11 boards. Point guard Isaiah Thomas has flourished as a starter with 14 20-point outings in 20 starts but has also scored 14 or fewer points in three of the past five games.
•ABOUT THE THUNDER (30-10 SU, 22-18-0 ATS): Durant has stepped up in his scoring duties with star point guard Russell Westbrook sidelined and the huge outing against the Warriors was also highly efficient as he made 19-of-28 field-goal attempts. The recent stretch of stellar games has increased chatter that the Oklahoma City forward is the leader in the league’s MVP derby. “It’s premature,” Durant said after his third career 50-point outing. “It’s way too early in the season. I try not to think about that type of stuff. Of course, as a player, you’d love to win an MVP award but I can’t take my focus off the team. Every day, I’ve just got to keep chipping away, keep enjoying the process and we’ll see what happens.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Oklahoma City has defeated Sacramento seven straight times, including a 97-95 road victory on Dec. 3.... Thunder C Kendrick Perkins had a season-high 12 rebounds in the win over Golden State.... The Kings have failed to reach 100 points in two of the past three games after reaching the century mark in 12 consecutive outings.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 589 times, while SACRAMENTO covered the spread 390 times. *EDGE against the spread =OKLAHOMA CITY. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY won the game straight up 762 times, while SACRAMENTO won 223 times. In 1000 simulated games, 570 games went under the total, while 413 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 525 times, while SACRAMENTO covered the first half line 475 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 569 games went under first half total, while 431 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =Under.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-35 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 42-29 straight up against SACRAMENTO since 1996.
--43 of 70 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-33 versus the first half line when playing against SACRAMENTO since 1996.
--44 of 69 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Kings are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Kings are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Oklahoma City.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Sunday games.
--Over is 7-0 in Kings last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 7-0 in Kings last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
--Under is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 overall.
--Under is 9-0 in Thunder last 9 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
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#809 DENVER @ #810 PHOENIX
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, Altitude Denver, FSN Arizona Phoenix - Line: Suns -1, Total: 219.5) - The Phoenix Suns look to defeat Denver for the third straight time this season when they host the Nuggets on Sunday. The Suns overcame a double-digit halftime deficit in one of the contests and the victories could prove beneficial as the teams figure to be among a group of squads battling for the final playoff spots in the Western Conference. Phoenix lost to the Dallas Mavericks on Friday while Denver succumbed to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Nuggets point guard Ty Lawson was highly upset after the home loss to the Cavaliers. “These games should be in the win column, we should get these,” Lawson said. “This playoff race is going to get deep, our last month is tough, so we have to get these games right now and solidify our spot.” The Suns have been struggling since losing guard Eric Bledsoe, who was forming a potent double point-guard backcourt with Goran Dragic. Phoenix is 3-6 since Bledsoe was lost to a knee injury.
•ABOUT THE NUGGETS (20-19 SU, 18-21-0 ATS): Denver hoisted a season-high 37 3-point attempts in the loss to Cleveland but lost by eight despite making nine more 3-pointers (14 to 5) than the Cavaliers. Forward Wilson Chandler made five 3-pointers en route to a season-best 23 points and Lawson contributed 19 points and 11 assists. Lawson has recorded double-doubles in eight of the past nine games and is averaging 18.7 points and 11.4 assists during the stretch. The Nuggets are averaging 115 points in January but have also allowed 108 or more points six times.
•ABOUT THE SUNS (22-17 SU, 25-13-1 ATS): Backup forward Markieff Morris has terrorized the Nuggets this season and enters this contest on a roll. Morris is averaging 23.5 points and 9.5 rebounds over the last two games and has season averages of 26.5 points and eight rebounds against Denver. Morris had 28 points on 10-of-13 shooting in one of the games against the Nuggets and 25 points in the other. The third-year pro is averaging 12.1 points and six boards while playing 24.8 minutes.
•PREGAME NOTES: Denver had beaten Phoenix seven of the previous eight times before dropping this season’s first two meetings.... Dragic has scored 28 points in two of the past three games.... Nuggets F Darrell Arthur (groin) has missed three straight games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PHOENIX covered the spread 543 times, while DENVER covered the spread 428 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, PHOENIX won the game straight up 572 times, while DENVER won 409 times. In 1000 simulated games, 808 games went under the total, while 192 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, PHOENIX covered the first half line 547 times, while DENVER covered the first half line 453 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 725 games went under first half total, while 275 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PHOENIX is 31-29 against the spread versus DENVER since 1996.
--PHOENIX is 40-25 straight up against DENVER since 1996.
--31 of 62 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--DENVER is 33-31 versus the first half line when playing against PHOENIX since 1996.
--35 of 61 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Nuggets are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Nuggets are 4-10 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Phoenix.
--Favorite is 16-7-1 ATS in the last 24 meetings.
--Home team is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 overall.
--Over is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 road games.
--Over is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Sunday games.
--Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Over is 4-0-1 in Suns last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
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Totals 4 You Regular Service Selections for Sunday, January 19th
2014 NFL Championships Totals Parlay of the Year!!!!!
New England/Denver under 56 1/2
San Francisco/Seattle under 40
January's NBA Western Conference Line-Crusher of the Month!!!!!
Denver/Phoenix under 219 1/2
NBA Best Bets
LA Lakers/Toronto under 204
Boston/Orlando under 195 1/2
Milwaukee/San Antonio under 198
Sacramento/Oklahoma City over 211
Best of Luck and Thank You!!!!!
New England/Denver under 56 1/2
San Francisco/Seattle under 40
January's NBA Western Conference Line-Crusher of the Month!!!!!
Denver/Phoenix under 219 1/2
NBA Best Bets
LA Lakers/Toronto under 204
Boston/Orlando under 195 1/2
Milwaukee/San Antonio under 198
Sacramento/Oklahoma City over 211
Best of Luck and Thank You!!!!!
