Patriots at Broncos What bettors need to know
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-5.5, 55)
Peyton Manning is one win from advancing to his third Super Bowl, but he'll have to get past a longtime nemesis when the Denver Broncos host Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in Sunday's AFC Championship Game. Manning shattered a number of passing records - including Brady's single-season touchdown mark - and is an overwhelming favorite to win an unprecedented fifth MVP award. Standing in his way is Brady, who is attempting to become the first quarterback to reach six Super Bowls.
It will mark the 15th overall matchup and fourth in the postseason for the two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Brady has dominated the rivalry with a 10-4 record against Manning, including a 34-31 overtime win in New England on Nov. 24 - a game in which the Patriots erased a 24-0 halftime deficit. “It’s the Broncos versus the Patriots,” Manning said. “Certainly Tom and I have played against each other a lot. But when you get to the AFC Championship Game, it’s about two good teams that have been through a lot to get there.”
LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Broncos as big as 7-point home favorites and sharp money jumped on the Patriots, dropping the line as low as -4.5 with help from the public. Wiseguy action started showing on Denver and forced a move back up to -5.5. The total opened as low as 54.5 and was bet up as high as 56 points.
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for clear skies with temperatures in the mid 50s and winds blowing west at 6 mph, from sideline to sideline.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-5.0) - Broncos (-7.0) + Home field (-3.0) = Broncos -5.0
KEY INJURIES: PATRIOTS: Kenbrell Thompkins WR - (Head) Questionable, Aaron Dobson WR - (Foot) Questionable, Tom Brady - (Flu) Probable. Ryan Allen P - (Shoulder) Questionable. BRONCOS: Rahim Moore S - (Leg) Questionable, Joel Dreessen TE - (Knee) Questionable, Chris Kuper G - (Ankle) Questionable.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "This is by far one of the more interesting games we’ve booked in recent memory, as the public is supporting the dog and the wiseguys are on the favorite." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "New England just doesn’t get blown out on the road, so it’s worth taking a long look at grabbing the points in what is shaping up as a field-goal game in Colorado. The Patriots are running the ball more than they ever have in the Brady-Belichick Era, and Belichick doesn’t mind playing in tight games in Denver." - Art Aronson.
WHY BET THE PATRIOTS (13-4 SU, 9-8 ATS, 10-7 O/U): New England rode a punishing running game led by LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley, who combined for 218 yards and six touchdowns. The 250-pound Blount has been a monster down the stretch with 431 yards and eight scores in his last three games, including a sledgehammer 166-yard, four-TD performance a week ago. New England's defense, which allowed an average of 21.1 points during the regular season, registered four interceptions and three sacks against Colts QB Andrew Luck last week.
WHY BET THE BRONOCS (14-3 SU, 10-6-1 ATS, 11-6 O/U): Manning orchestrated the top offensive season in league history, throwing for 55 touchdowns and an NFL-record 5,477 yards as Denver became the first team to surpass 600 points. The Broncos are the first team in history to have five players score 10 touchdowns, including wideouts Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, ex-Patriot Wes Welker and tight end Julius Thomas, who missed the first matchup with New England but had six catches for 76 yards in last week's 24-17 win over San Diego.
TRENDS:
* Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Denver.
CONSENSUS PICK: Patriots +5.5 (60.28%), Over 55 (68.34%)
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-5.5, 55)
Peyton Manning is one win from advancing to his third Super Bowl, but he'll have to get past a longtime nemesis when the Denver Broncos host Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in Sunday's AFC Championship Game. Manning shattered a number of passing records - including Brady's single-season touchdown mark - and is an overwhelming favorite to win an unprecedented fifth MVP award. Standing in his way is Brady, who is attempting to become the first quarterback to reach six Super Bowls.
It will mark the 15th overall matchup and fourth in the postseason for the two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Brady has dominated the rivalry with a 10-4 record against Manning, including a 34-31 overtime win in New England on Nov. 24 - a game in which the Patriots erased a 24-0 halftime deficit. “It’s the Broncos versus the Patriots,” Manning said. “Certainly Tom and I have played against each other a lot. But when you get to the AFC Championship Game, it’s about two good teams that have been through a lot to get there.”
LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Broncos as big as 7-point home favorites and sharp money jumped on the Patriots, dropping the line as low as -4.5 with help from the public. Wiseguy action started showing on Denver and forced a move back up to -5.5. The total opened as low as 54.5 and was bet up as high as 56 points.
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for clear skies with temperatures in the mid 50s and winds blowing west at 6 mph, from sideline to sideline.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-5.0) - Broncos (-7.0) + Home field (-3.0) = Broncos -5.0
KEY INJURIES: PATRIOTS: Kenbrell Thompkins WR - (Head) Questionable, Aaron Dobson WR - (Foot) Questionable, Tom Brady - (Flu) Probable. Ryan Allen P - (Shoulder) Questionable. BRONCOS: Rahim Moore S - (Leg) Questionable, Joel Dreessen TE - (Knee) Questionable, Chris Kuper G - (Ankle) Questionable.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "This is by far one of the more interesting games we’ve booked in recent memory, as the public is supporting the dog and the wiseguys are on the favorite." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "New England just doesn’t get blown out on the road, so it’s worth taking a long look at grabbing the points in what is shaping up as a field-goal game in Colorado. The Patriots are running the ball more than they ever have in the Brady-Belichick Era, and Belichick doesn’t mind playing in tight games in Denver." - Art Aronson.
WHY BET THE PATRIOTS (13-4 SU, 9-8 ATS, 10-7 O/U): New England rode a punishing running game led by LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley, who combined for 218 yards and six touchdowns. The 250-pound Blount has been a monster down the stretch with 431 yards and eight scores in his last three games, including a sledgehammer 166-yard, four-TD performance a week ago. New England's defense, which allowed an average of 21.1 points during the regular season, registered four interceptions and three sacks against Colts QB Andrew Luck last week.
WHY BET THE BRONOCS (14-3 SU, 10-6-1 ATS, 11-6 O/U): Manning orchestrated the top offensive season in league history, throwing for 55 touchdowns and an NFL-record 5,477 yards as Denver became the first team to surpass 600 points. The Broncos are the first team in history to have five players score 10 touchdowns, including wideouts Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, ex-Patriot Wes Welker and tight end Julius Thomas, who missed the first matchup with New England but had six catches for 76 yards in last week's 24-17 win over San Diego.
TRENDS:
* Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Denver.
CONSENSUS PICK: Patriots +5.5 (60.28%), Over 55 (68.34%)
49ers at Seahawks What bettors need to know
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 38.5)
The San Francisco 49ers are riding an eight-game winning streak and have posted back-to-back postseason road victories, but a return trip to the Super Bowl will hinge on overcoming a bitter rival and a venue that has been a house of horrors. The 49ers will visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday in the NFC Championship Game, seeking to erase a pair of ugly defeats in their last two trips to the Pacific Northwest. Seattle has won the last two home matchups with the 49ers by a combined 71-16 score.
The Seahawks held off San Francisco to capture the NFC West title due in large part to their dominance at CenturyLink Field, where they are 16-1 over the past two seasons, including last week's 23-15 victory over New Orleans. The teams have split the past four meetings, with San Francisco prevailing 19-17 at home on Dec. 8 to avenge a 29-3 beating in Seattle in Week 2. “We’re ready to go,” 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick said. "We’re a different team than the last time we played them up there."
LINE HISTORY: Seattle opened as a field-goal home favorite and sharp action came in hard on the host, tacking a half-point hook on the line. The public money has sided with the red-hot Niners, however, and books are trying to stay at 3.5 by adjusting the vig on the Seahawks. The total opened at 41 points and action on the Under has pushed this number as low as 38.5. Books are bracing for wiseguys to come back on the Over if it continues to fall.
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for mostly cloudy skies and a 14 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the high 40s. Winds are expected to blow NNW, from corner to corner, but will only reach speeds of 1 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: 49ers (-6.0) - Seahawks (-7.3) + Home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -4.3
KEY INJUIRES: 49ERS: Carlos Rogers CB - (Hamstring) Probable, Will Tukuafu FB - (Knee) Questionable. SEAHAWKS: Percy Harvin WR, (Concussion) Doubtful, K.J. Wright LB - (Foot) Questionable
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Our bettors have been all over the 49ers in the playoffs. We’ve seen sharp money support the Seahawks at home all season and unlike last week, they’ve gotten the money more times than not. So this game and the line movement has been somewhat predictable." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.
WHY SHARPS SAY: "It’s been four months since the Niners - disorganized at the time - went in to Seattle and got spanked. Since then, San Francisco has figured things out and playing on the road doesn’t seem to be all that much of an issue." - Art Aronson.
WHY BET THE 49ERS (14-4 SU, 12-6 ATS, 8-10 O/U): One difference from the first meeting is the presence of wideout Michael Crabtree, who has 30 receptions in seven games since returning to the starting lineup following Achilles' tendon surgery. Anquan Boldin had eight catches for 136 yards last week and tight end Vernon Davis caught his seventh touchdown pass in seven postseason games. Running back Frank Gore rushed for 110 yards against the Seahawks last month and has a pair of 200-yard games against Seattle.
WHY BET THE SEAHAWKS (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS, 6-11 O/U): Seattle has the luxury of leaning on running back Marshawn Lynch, who piled up 140 yards and scored twice a week ago to give him five touchdowns and three 100-yard performances in his last five playoff games. The Seahawks' defense feeds off the raucous 12th Man crowd, ranking first in the NFL in points (14.4) and yards (273.3) permitted while also amassing a league-best 28 interceptions. The Seahawks have won six straight postseason home games, outscoring their opponents 174-109.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Home team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* 49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
CONSENSUS PICK: San Francisco +3.5 (61%), Under 38.5 (67%)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 38.5)
The San Francisco 49ers are riding an eight-game winning streak and have posted back-to-back postseason road victories, but a return trip to the Super Bowl will hinge on overcoming a bitter rival and a venue that has been a house of horrors. The 49ers will visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday in the NFC Championship Game, seeking to erase a pair of ugly defeats in their last two trips to the Pacific Northwest. Seattle has won the last two home matchups with the 49ers by a combined 71-16 score.
The Seahawks held off San Francisco to capture the NFC West title due in large part to their dominance at CenturyLink Field, where they are 16-1 over the past two seasons, including last week's 23-15 victory over New Orleans. The teams have split the past four meetings, with San Francisco prevailing 19-17 at home on Dec. 8 to avenge a 29-3 beating in Seattle in Week 2. “We’re ready to go,” 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick said. "We’re a different team than the last time we played them up there."
LINE HISTORY: Seattle opened as a field-goal home favorite and sharp action came in hard on the host, tacking a half-point hook on the line. The public money has sided with the red-hot Niners, however, and books are trying to stay at 3.5 by adjusting the vig on the Seahawks. The total opened at 41 points and action on the Under has pushed this number as low as 38.5. Books are bracing for wiseguys to come back on the Over if it continues to fall.
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for mostly cloudy skies and a 14 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the high 40s. Winds are expected to blow NNW, from corner to corner, but will only reach speeds of 1 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: 49ers (-6.0) - Seahawks (-7.3) + Home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -4.3
KEY INJUIRES: 49ERS: Carlos Rogers CB - (Hamstring) Probable, Will Tukuafu FB - (Knee) Questionable. SEAHAWKS: Percy Harvin WR, (Concussion) Doubtful, K.J. Wright LB - (Foot) Questionable
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Our bettors have been all over the 49ers in the playoffs. We’ve seen sharp money support the Seahawks at home all season and unlike last week, they’ve gotten the money more times than not. So this game and the line movement has been somewhat predictable." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.
WHY SHARPS SAY: "It’s been four months since the Niners - disorganized at the time - went in to Seattle and got spanked. Since then, San Francisco has figured things out and playing on the road doesn’t seem to be all that much of an issue." - Art Aronson.
WHY BET THE 49ERS (14-4 SU, 12-6 ATS, 8-10 O/U): One difference from the first meeting is the presence of wideout Michael Crabtree, who has 30 receptions in seven games since returning to the starting lineup following Achilles' tendon surgery. Anquan Boldin had eight catches for 136 yards last week and tight end Vernon Davis caught his seventh touchdown pass in seven postseason games. Running back Frank Gore rushed for 110 yards against the Seahawks last month and has a pair of 200-yard games against Seattle.
WHY BET THE SEAHAWKS (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS, 6-11 O/U): Seattle has the luxury of leaning on running back Marshawn Lynch, who piled up 140 yards and scored twice a week ago to give him five touchdowns and three 100-yard performances in his last five playoff games. The Seahawks' defense feeds off the raucous 12th Man crowd, ranking first in the NFL in points (14.4) and yards (273.3) permitted while also amassing a league-best 28 interceptions. The Seahawks have won six straight postseason home games, outscoring their opponents 174-109.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Home team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* 49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
CONSENSUS PICK: San Francisco +3.5 (61%), Under 38.5 (67%)
NFL's biggest betting mismatches Championship Sunday
Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are two of the biggest betting mismatches for the NFL Championship Sunday:
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-5.5, 55)
Patriots’ pass rush vs. Broncos’ offensive timing
Lost in the Brady vs. Manning hoopla and the Patriots’ drastic shift in gears to the running game, is New England’s pass rush. The Patriots defense, specifically the guys bombarding the opposing quarterback, are playing their best football of the season.
New England has registered 11 sacks over the past three games, including three sacks on Colts QB Andrew Luck last weekend. The pass rush is throwing opposing offense’s timing off and has been the root cause for the seven passes the Pats’ have picked off in that span – four INTs versus Indianapolis.
Peyton Manning is a watchmaker at the line of scrimmage. Every cog must be perfectly set and timed in order for the offense to work with procession. The Broncos offensive line has done a good job keeping No. 18 clean, giving up just 20 sacks – best in the NFL.
However, in the only two games in which Manning failed to complete 60 percent or more of this passes – losses to New England (53.8%) and Indianapolis (59.2%) – Manning was sacked a total of six times. He also threw an interception in each of those games. Manning threw three picks versus Washington in Week 8 and was sacked twice in that win. Denver hasn’t faced a tough pass rush for a while either, pushing around the likes of San Diego twice, Oakland, Houston, and Tennessee in their last five games.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 39)
Wilson’s waning play vs. Niners’ knowledgeable defense
Russell Wilson was a dark horse NFL MVP candidate for most of the season. But, with his recent fall from form, questions have been raised about Wilson’s ability to get Seattle over the hump and into the Super Bowl. After averaging 210 yards passing per game on the year, Wilson has tossed for an average of only 127.6 yards over the last three games, including just 108 yards against the Saints.
He’s completed just 52 percent of his passes and lugs a 73.1 QB rating in that span – way off the pace of his 101.2 QB rating on the season. Wilson also isn’t getting the job done with his legs, rushing for just 47 total yards on 10 attempts in that span. If Seattle is going to win Sunday, it needs Wilson to be more than a game manager.
No defense in the NFL knows Wilson better than the Niners. Sunday will be the fourth time these teams will have played over the last 14 months, with San Francisco getting the best of Seattle’s QB in their most recent meeting.
The 49ers limited Wilson to 60 percent passing, held him to two yards rushing, intercepted him once and sacked him twice – including an early sack/fumble from LB NaVorro Bowman that made Wilson think twice about leaving the pocket again. San Francisco, which has limited opposing QBs to a 77.6 rating on the year, had five sacks and two picks versus Carolina last weekend and four sacks in the Wild Card win over the Packers.
Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are two of the biggest betting mismatches for the NFL Championship Sunday:
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-5.5, 55)
Patriots’ pass rush vs. Broncos’ offensive timing
Lost in the Brady vs. Manning hoopla and the Patriots’ drastic shift in gears to the running game, is New England’s pass rush. The Patriots defense, specifically the guys bombarding the opposing quarterback, are playing their best football of the season.
New England has registered 11 sacks over the past three games, including three sacks on Colts QB Andrew Luck last weekend. The pass rush is throwing opposing offense’s timing off and has been the root cause for the seven passes the Pats’ have picked off in that span – four INTs versus Indianapolis.
Peyton Manning is a watchmaker at the line of scrimmage. Every cog must be perfectly set and timed in order for the offense to work with procession. The Broncos offensive line has done a good job keeping No. 18 clean, giving up just 20 sacks – best in the NFL.
However, in the only two games in which Manning failed to complete 60 percent or more of this passes – losses to New England (53.8%) and Indianapolis (59.2%) – Manning was sacked a total of six times. He also threw an interception in each of those games. Manning threw three picks versus Washington in Week 8 and was sacked twice in that win. Denver hasn’t faced a tough pass rush for a while either, pushing around the likes of San Diego twice, Oakland, Houston, and Tennessee in their last five games.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 39)
Wilson’s waning play vs. Niners’ knowledgeable defense
Russell Wilson was a dark horse NFL MVP candidate for most of the season. But, with his recent fall from form, questions have been raised about Wilson’s ability to get Seattle over the hump and into the Super Bowl. After averaging 210 yards passing per game on the year, Wilson has tossed for an average of only 127.6 yards over the last three games, including just 108 yards against the Saints.
He’s completed just 52 percent of his passes and lugs a 73.1 QB rating in that span – way off the pace of his 101.2 QB rating on the season. Wilson also isn’t getting the job done with his legs, rushing for just 47 total yards on 10 attempts in that span. If Seattle is going to win Sunday, it needs Wilson to be more than a game manager.
No defense in the NFL knows Wilson better than the Niners. Sunday will be the fourth time these teams will have played over the last 14 months, with San Francisco getting the best of Seattle’s QB in their most recent meeting.
The 49ers limited Wilson to 60 percent passing, held him to two yards rushing, intercepted him once and sacked him twice – including an early sack/fumble from LB NaVorro Bowman that made Wilson think twice about leaving the pocket again. San Francisco, which has limited opposing QBs to a 77.6 rating on the year, had five sacks and two picks versus Carolina last weekend and four sacks in the Wild Card win over the Packers.
NFL
Conference Championships
Patriots were favored in their last 11 playoff games; this is their first road playoff game since losing AFC title game 38-34 (+3) to Colts seven years ago. Patriots are 3-2 in road playoff games with Brady at QB, with only five of his 24 playoff tilts on foreign soil (3-2 in Super Bowls). Belichick is 5-2 in AFC title games, winning twice at Pittsburgh. Manning is 4-10 vs Brady's teams- Broncos (-2.5) got beat at Foxboro 34-31 in OT in Week 12, after leading 24-0 at half in sloppy game where Denver ran ball for 280 yards but turned ball over four times (-1). Patriots are 2-4 in last six road games overall, winning at Houston/Pittsburgh. This is only second time in last nine AFC title games the #'s 1-2 seeds played: NFL-wide, favorites are 4-3-1 vs spread in last eight conference title games between 1-2 seeds. Welker will have a big day against his old team, who unwisely let him walk.
49ers got crushed last two times they visited Seattle, 42-13/29-3; in two games vs Seahawks this year (Niners won rematch 19-17 at home), they scored 16 points in five red zone drives, one TD/four FGs- they'll need to do better here. Since 2000, #1 seeds are 3-3 vs spread when facing team in this round that didn't get first round bye; since 2001, #1 seeds are 6-9 overall vs spread in conference title games. This is third year in row 49ers are in this game, splitting last two, with road team winning both. 49ers didn't win a road playoff game from 1970 until LY, but now have won three in row; problem, this is now their 4th straight Sunday on road. Seattle is 5-4 as home favorite this year, with only SU loss to Arizona in Week 16. Harbaugh once beat Carroll's USC team as a 42-point underdog when he was at Stanford; no love lost between the two.
Conference Championships
Patriots were favored in their last 11 playoff games; this is their first road playoff game since losing AFC title game 38-34 (+3) to Colts seven years ago. Patriots are 3-2 in road playoff games with Brady at QB, with only five of his 24 playoff tilts on foreign soil (3-2 in Super Bowls). Belichick is 5-2 in AFC title games, winning twice at Pittsburgh. Manning is 4-10 vs Brady's teams- Broncos (-2.5) got beat at Foxboro 34-31 in OT in Week 12, after leading 24-0 at half in sloppy game where Denver ran ball for 280 yards but turned ball over four times (-1). Patriots are 2-4 in last six road games overall, winning at Houston/Pittsburgh. This is only second time in last nine AFC title games the #'s 1-2 seeds played: NFL-wide, favorites are 4-3-1 vs spread in last eight conference title games between 1-2 seeds. Welker will have a big day against his old team, who unwisely let him walk.
49ers got crushed last two times they visited Seattle, 42-13/29-3; in two games vs Seahawks this year (Niners won rematch 19-17 at home), they scored 16 points in five red zone drives, one TD/four FGs- they'll need to do better here. Since 2000, #1 seeds are 3-3 vs spread when facing team in this round that didn't get first round bye; since 2001, #1 seeds are 6-9 overall vs spread in conference title games. This is third year in row 49ers are in this game, splitting last two, with road team winning both. 49ers didn't win a road playoff game from 1970 until LY, but now have won three in row; problem, this is now their 4th straight Sunday on road. Seattle is 5-4 as home favorite this year, with only SU loss to Arizona in Week 16. Harbaugh once beat Carroll's USC team as a 42-point underdog when he was at Stanford; no love lost between the two.
StatSystems Sports - The NFL’s Final Four
Recent history suggests we could see a lot of scoring this Sunday
The Conference Championship games have taken on a different feel lately than most football fans had become accustomed. For one, no longer is the No. 1 seed a lock to be hosting the game: Prior to 2006, top seeds had hosted 21 of the 26 games since ’93—they will have hosted only nine of the last 18 once this Sunday’s games are played in Denver and Seattle.
With upsets becoming more frequent in the earlier rounds, the typical methods for handicapping the Conference Championships has changed. We’ll dive deeper into that as we move along, but we’ll start with the fact that home teams are just 24-18 SU & 18-23-1 ATS in the last 42. One thing that has stayed consistent, however, is the fact that the games in this round have been reliably highscoring. In terms of the total, OVER has been the result in 25 of 42 games since ’93, and only three times in that period was the UNDER the result in both games in a single year.
Recent Trends
We’ve already established the fact that most recent Conference Championship games have gone OVER the total. If you look back at just the games since ’05, 13 of the 18 games have seen the total go that way. Home-field advantage has been restored somewhat as well of late, with hosts on a run of 10-5 SU but just 7-8 ATS dating back to the late game of January 22nd of 2006. Here are some other general handicapping tidbits you might be able to utilize this Sunday:
•AFC and NFC Conference Championship games have shown varying results. In the AFC, road teams are on a run of 6-8 SU & 8-6 ATS in the last 14 years. In the NFC, home field has been only slightly more advantageous, with hosts boasting a record of 5-4 SU & 4-5 ATS in the last nine games.
•Overall, favorites own a slight 12-10 ATS edge in the last 11 years on Conference Championship Sunday. AFC favorites have carried that edge, going 7-4 ATS.
•Five of the last seven NFC Championship games have gone OVER the total. The home team has averaged more than 25 points per game during that span.
Trends by Seed Number
Here’s a breakdown of trends specific to the seed number of the playoff teams involved in the Conference Championship games:
•Six of the last nine times that a Conference Championship game was hosted by a non-No. 1 seed, the game went OVER the total, producing an average of 46.2 PPG. Four of the last seven non-No. 1 seeded hosts won their games, both SU & ATS.
•There have been 15 instances since ’93 in which a seed No. 4 or lower reached the Conference Championship Round and took on a No. 1 or No. 2. Those lesser seeds boast a 9-6 SU & 9-5-1 ATS record in those games.
Trends by Line Range
Lines in the conference title games have been a bit tighter than those in the previous round, with the average favorite laying less than 5.5 points since ’93. There have been eight home underdogs in that span. Take a look at these other line specific trends:
•Hosts have been most reliable when playing as favorites in the -3 to -9.5 line range in Conference Championship Games, going 17-9 SU & 15-11 ATS since ’93. Interestingly, the straight-up winner had been 22-0 ATS in such games before the streak ended in the January 2010 NFC title game: New Orleans won but failed to cover the 4-point spread in its 31-28 win over Minnesota. Order was restored in 2011 when the Steelers won and covered at home against the Jets as a 4-point favorite, but the Patriots in January 2012 failed to cover in their 23-20 win as a 7-point favorite over the Ravens. Eight straight contests of this type had gone OVER the total prior to that AFC title game in January 2012, which had a line of 49.
•Going back to ’93, 10 Conference Championship games have seen a line move 1.5 points or more throughout the week. Bettors are 4-5-1 ATS in those games following the money, but when the line has moved three points or more, bettors are just 0-3-1 ATS. In other words, you’d have been much better off fading the line move in such cases.
________________________________________________
Recent history suggests we could see a lot of scoring this Sunday
The Conference Championship games have taken on a different feel lately than most football fans had become accustomed. For one, no longer is the No. 1 seed a lock to be hosting the game: Prior to 2006, top seeds had hosted 21 of the 26 games since ’93—they will have hosted only nine of the last 18 once this Sunday’s games are played in Denver and Seattle.
With upsets becoming more frequent in the earlier rounds, the typical methods for handicapping the Conference Championships has changed. We’ll dive deeper into that as we move along, but we’ll start with the fact that home teams are just 24-18 SU & 18-23-1 ATS in the last 42. One thing that has stayed consistent, however, is the fact that the games in this round have been reliably highscoring. In terms of the total, OVER has been the result in 25 of 42 games since ’93, and only three times in that period was the UNDER the result in both games in a single year.
Recent Trends
We’ve already established the fact that most recent Conference Championship games have gone OVER the total. If you look back at just the games since ’05, 13 of the 18 games have seen the total go that way. Home-field advantage has been restored somewhat as well of late, with hosts on a run of 10-5 SU but just 7-8 ATS dating back to the late game of January 22nd of 2006. Here are some other general handicapping tidbits you might be able to utilize this Sunday:
•AFC and NFC Conference Championship games have shown varying results. In the AFC, road teams are on a run of 6-8 SU & 8-6 ATS in the last 14 years. In the NFC, home field has been only slightly more advantageous, with hosts boasting a record of 5-4 SU & 4-5 ATS in the last nine games.
•Overall, favorites own a slight 12-10 ATS edge in the last 11 years on Conference Championship Sunday. AFC favorites have carried that edge, going 7-4 ATS.
•Five of the last seven NFC Championship games have gone OVER the total. The home team has averaged more than 25 points per game during that span.
Trends by Seed Number
Here’s a breakdown of trends specific to the seed number of the playoff teams involved in the Conference Championship games:
•Six of the last nine times that a Conference Championship game was hosted by a non-No. 1 seed, the game went OVER the total, producing an average of 46.2 PPG. Four of the last seven non-No. 1 seeded hosts won their games, both SU & ATS.
•There have been 15 instances since ’93 in which a seed No. 4 or lower reached the Conference Championship Round and took on a No. 1 or No. 2. Those lesser seeds boast a 9-6 SU & 9-5-1 ATS record in those games.
Trends by Line Range
Lines in the conference title games have been a bit tighter than those in the previous round, with the average favorite laying less than 5.5 points since ’93. There have been eight home underdogs in that span. Take a look at these other line specific trends:
•Hosts have been most reliable when playing as favorites in the -3 to -9.5 line range in Conference Championship Games, going 17-9 SU & 15-11 ATS since ’93. Interestingly, the straight-up winner had been 22-0 ATS in such games before the streak ended in the January 2010 NFC title game: New Orleans won but failed to cover the 4-point spread in its 31-28 win over Minnesota. Order was restored in 2011 when the Steelers won and covered at home against the Jets as a 4-point favorite, but the Patriots in January 2012 failed to cover in their 23-20 win as a 7-point favorite over the Ravens. Eight straight contests of this type had gone OVER the total prior to that AFC title game in January 2012, which had a line of 49.
•Going back to ’93, 10 Conference Championship games have seen a line move 1.5 points or more throughout the week. Bettors are 4-5-1 ATS in those games following the money, but when the line has moved three points or more, bettors are just 0-3-1 ATS. In other words, you’d have been much better off fading the line move in such cases.
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