THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Philadelphia (11-6-1, 12-6 ATS) at Arizona (11-7 SU and ATS)
The Eagles and the Cardinals – two teams that carried the worst regular-season records among the six NFC playoff contestants – meet for the second time this season, this time at University of Phoenix Stadium for a berth in the Super Bowl.
Fourth-seeded Arizona embarrassed No. 2 seed Carolina 33-13 as a 10-point road underdog in the divisional round last week for its third consecutive win and cover, looking nothing like the team that suffered consecutive late-season blowout losses to Minnesota and New England. Veteran QB Kurt Warner (21 of 32, 220 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was steady enough, and WR Larry Fitzgerald (8 catches, 166 yards, 1 TD) was unstoppable, despite sidekick Anquan Boldin (hamstring) sitting out. Boldin is expected back this week.
Despite the 33-point effort, the key for Arizona last week was the defense, which forced Panthers QB Jake Delhomme into six turnovers (5 INTs, 1 lost fumble), leading to 23 points. The Cards held Carolina to just 269 total yards, while gaining 360, and they rolled up a nearly 20-minute edge in time of possession (39:49-20:11).
One week after going to Minnesota and eliminating the Vikings, sixth-seeded Philadelphia knocked off the top-seeded Giants 23-11 as a four-point pup to move to 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven games, including two road wins over the defending Super Bowl champions. QB Donovan McNabb (22 of 40, 217 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) was a bit shaky, but he ran for one TD and led three second-half scoring drives, including a 10-play, 63-yard effort capped by a 1-yard TD pass to Brent Celek to give the Eagles a two-score lead at the beginning of the fourth quarter.
Although Philly was outgained 307-276, the defense came up huge, picking off Eli Manning twice among three forced turnovers and stopping the Giants on fourth-and-short on back-to-back fourth-quarter possessions to help seal the deal.
Philadelphia is on a 7-2 ATS roll (5-4 SU) in this rivalry, including a 48-20 home whipping as a three-point home chalk on Thanksgiving night earlier this season. In addition, the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four clashes.
During its three-game SU and ATS winning streak that dates back to the regular-season finale against Seattle, Arizona is averaging 32.3 points and 391.3 total yards per game, while giving up 19.3 points and 283 yards per contest. In the regular season, Arizona ranked in the top five in the NFL in scoring offense (26.7 ppg, 3rd), total offense (365.8 ypg, 4th) and passing offense (292.1 ypg, 2nd). Warner completed 67.1 percent of his passes for 4,583 yards (second) and 30 TDs (third), against 14 INTs. Fitzgerald led the NFC in catches (96, 4th overall) and yards (1,431, 2nd overall), and he tied Detroit’s Calvin Johnson for the league lead in receiving touchdowns with 12.
Arizona’s defense has been solid in playoff wins over Atlanta and Carolina, allowing just 18.5 ppg and 259.5 ypg. Those numbers are far better than in the regular season, when the Cards ranked a lowly 28th in points allowed (26.6 ppg) and 19th in yards allowed (331.5 total ypg). Arizona, which finished even in turnover differential in the regular season, is a stunning plus-7 through two playoff games.
Philly has scored at least 20 points in each of its six wins during its current 6-1 run. In the regular season, it had the league’s sixth-best scoring offense (26 ppg) and was ninth in total offense (350.5 ypg), paced by the sixth-rated passing attack (244.4 ypg). McNabb completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 3,916 yards and 23 TDs, against 11 INTs. Also, Brian Westbrook, despite being dinged up a few times during the season, rushed for 936 yards (4.0 ypc) and nine TDs, and he had 54 catches for another 402 yards and five scores.
Philadelphia has continued its yearlong strong defensive play in postseason wins at Minnesota and New York, allowing a stifling 12.5 points and 304 total yards per game. Since defeating Arizona, the Eagles’ D has held six consecutive opponents to 14 points or less, giving up an average of 10.8 ppg during this stretch. Philly is at plus-1 in turnover differential for the playoffs, after finishing plus-3 in the regular season.
The Eagles are on numerous ATS hot streaks, including 12-4 on the highway, 6-1 in the playoffs, 5-0 in road playoff games, 5-0 against winning teams, 5-0 on grass., 4-1 after a SU win, 4-1 laying points and 5-2 in January. Philly has also gone 8-3 ATS this year in its 11 games against non-division foes. The Cardinals are on pointspread upticks of 5-0 in January, 4-1 on grass, 7-3 at home and 11-5 against winning teams, but they are on a 3-7 ATS slide as an underdog.
Since 1990, home teams have gone just 16-19-1 ATS in the conference championship round, including 0-2 ATS last year, the first time that’s happened since 2001. Since 1983, only four home teams have been underdogs in this round, and they’ve gone 1-2-1 ATS. Also, in conference finals since 1983, the NFC East is 10-4 ATS (4-2 ATS against the NFC West) and the NFC West is 6-8 ATS.
The under for Philadelphia is on tears of 4-1-1 overall, 4-0 on the road, 7-1-1 in the playoffs, 5-0-1 as a playoff chalk, 41-16-5 as a favorite and 19-7-1 as a road favorite. However, the over is 23-11-1 in Philly’s last 35 games against winning teams, and the over for Arizona is on streaks of 36-17 overall, 37-14 with the Cards a ‘dog, 5-1 with the Cards a home pup, 16-5 against winning teams and 19-7 at home.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in seven of the last nine clashes overall, and the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Arizona. This year’s 48-20 contest in Philly easily cleared the 48½-point posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Baltimore (13-5, 14-4 ATS) at Pittsburgh (13-4, 10-7 ATS)
The red-hot Ravens, the AFC’s No. 6 seed, travel to Heinz Field for their third clash of the season against the Steelers, who hope to make it 3-0 against their NFC North rivals and return to the Super Bowl for the seventh time in franchise history.
Baltimore edged Tennessee 13-10 as a three-point road pup last week for its fourth straight win and cover, and the Ravens are now 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games. Baltimore was completely outplayed in almost every category, giving up 391 total yards while gaining just 211 and losing the time-of-possession battle by more than eight minutes (34:07-25:53). But the game was won on turnovers, as the Ravens didn’t commit any while forcing one INT and two fumbles. All three of those turnovers came with the Titans in Ravens territory, including one at the 22-yard line and one inside the 5-yard line.
Rookie QB Joe Flacco (11 of 22, 161 yards, 1 TD) was mediocre against Tennessee, and the ground game netted just 50 yards, almost 100 below its regular-season average (148.5).
Second-seeded Pittsburgh pulled away from San Diego in the second half last Sunday for a 35-24 victory as a 6½-point favorite, winning and cashing for the second straight outing and moving to 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) in its last eight games. QB Ben Roethlisberger (17 of 26, 181 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) played mistake-free football and was aided greatly by RB Willie Parker’s huge game (27 carries, 146 yards, 2 TDs) as the Steelers ran for 165 yards, while holding the Chargers to a measly 15 yards on the ground. Pittsburgh finished with a 342-290 edge in total yards.
As with Baltimore, turnovers were a key in Pittsburgh’s divisional-round victory, as the Steelers had a 2-0 edge. One of those was an INT that came on the Chargers’ only play of the third quarter, as the Steelers held the ball for all but 17 seconds of that period.
Baltimore is 6-2 ATS (4-4 SU) in the last eight clashes in this heated rivalry, including 1-1 ATS (0-2 SU) this season. In September, Pittsburgh won 23-20 in overtime at home, but the Ravens cashed getting six points. Last month, the Steelers eked out a 13-9 road victory with a late controversial TD to win and cash as a three-point pup. In fact, the underdog has covered in four of the last five meetings.
The Ravens’ offense has produced three TDs in its two playoff wins over the Titans and Dolphins, with the defense also contributing a score and kicker Matt Stover has hit four field goals. In the regular season, Baltimore averaged 24.1 ppg (11th) and 324 ypg (18th), but the Ravens had the AFC’s No. 1 ground attack at 148.5 ypg (4th overall), with Le’Ron McClain (902 yards, 10 TDs) and Willis McGahee (671 yards, 7 TDs) combining for 1,573 yards. Flacco wasn’t afraid to tuck the ball and run, as well, with 52 attempts for 152 yards and two TDs, and the rookie completed 60 percent of his passes for 2,971 yards and 14 TDs, though he had 12 INTs.
Baltimore’s defense hasn’t skipped a beat in the playoffs, allowing a postseason-leading 9.5 ppg in victories over Miami and Tennessee, but the Ravens are giving up 333.5 ypg. In the regular season, Baltimore ranked second in yards allowed – a stingy 261.1 per game – and third in scoring (15.2 ppg). The Ravens have a plus-7 turnover differential in their two playoff games, putting them at a sterling plus-20 for the season. Safety Ed Reed has led the way with 11 INTs.
Pittsburgh’s offense produced its second-highest point total of the season in last week’s win over the Chargers. In the regular season, the Steelers were in the back half of the league in every offensive statistic, with per-game averages of 21.7 points (20th), 311.9 total yards (22nd), 105.6 rushing yards (23rd) and 206.3 passing yards (17th). Roethlisberger was the NFL’s 24th-rated QB, competing 59.9 percent of his passes for 3,301 yards, offsetting 17 TD throws with 15 INTs. Parker, limited to 11 games beause of injury but now regaining his form, rushed for 791 yards (3.8 ypc) and five TDs, and WR Hines Ward (81 catches, 1,043 yards, 7 TDs) tied for 14th in receptions and was 15th in receiving yards.
With such a lackluster offense, the Steelers needed a stellar defense to get to this point, and they had it in the league’s No. 1-ranked unit in points allowed (a meager 13.9 per game), total yards (237.2 per game) and passing yards (156.9), along with the second-best run-stopping squad (80.2 ypg). Despite those impressive numbers, Pittsburgh finished just plus-4 in turnover differential in the regular season, but the Steelers improved to plus-6 on the year following the win over San Diego. The 24 points given up last week tied for the second-most allowed this season.
The Ravens are on a bundle of ATS rolls, including 4-0 on the road, 6-1 in AFC North contests, 5-1 as a favorite, 8-1 against the AFC, 7-3 in the playoffs, 6-1 in road playoff games, 16-5 on grass and 10-2 after a SU win. However, they also carry negative ATS trends of 4-11 as a ‘dog of 3½-10 points and 3-10 as a road pup at that same price, and prior to their two spread-covers in the playoffs, the Ravens were in an 0-5 ATS rut in January games.
In addition, the SU winner is 27-2 ATS in Baltimore’s last 29 outings, including 17-1 ATS this season.
The Steelers have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five AFC title games, but they are otherwise on a plethora of pointspread streaks, including 6-0 in playoff games, 23-8 as a home chalk of 3½-10 points, 4-0 as a home chalk of any price, 4-0 versus division foes, 5-0 in January and 5-1 against winning teams.
Since 1983, home favorites have gone 26-18 ATS in the conference championship round.
The under for Baltimore is on stretches of 5-1 overall, 4-0 in the playoffs, 5-1-1 against winning teams, 4-1-1 in January and 4-1 with the Ravens a postseason pup. But the over for the Ravens is on runs of 4-1 against the AFC North, 5-2-1 on the road and 4-1-1 with the Ravens a road ‘dog, and the over for Pittsburgh is on tears of 38-16-2 at home, 4-0 in AFC title games, 11-2 in the playoffs, 8-1 in home postseason tilts, 6-1 with the Steelers a playoff chalk and 16-5 in January.
Furthermore, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in four of the last five clashes – with last month’s contest in Baltimore the exception – and the over has been the play in the last four meetings in Pittsburgh.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
St. John’s (10-6, 4-5-1 ATS) at (23) Villanova (13-3, 5-7 ATS)
Villanova returns to the court for the first time since suffering a heartbreaking loss to Louisville eight days ago, as it hosts slumping St. John’s at The Pavilion.
The Wildcats nearly overcame an eight-point halftime deficit last Saturday against Louisville, coming up just short in a 61-60 loss as a two-point home favorite. Villanova is off to a 1-2 start in Big East play, failing to cash in any of the three contests. This mini-slump comes on the heels of a four-game winning streak to close out the non-conference season.
St. John’s followed up a surprising 71-65 upset home win over Notre Dame with back-to-back double-digit Big East losses to Pitt (90-67 as a 20-point road underdog) and UConn (67-55 as a 12½-point home pup). The Red Storm are just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last six outings, and they’ve lost their two Big East road games (Pitt and Providence) by a combined 44 points.
Villanova is on a 4-0 roll (2-2 ATS) in this rivalry, including last year’s 60-42 rout as a three-point road chalk. Three of the Wildcats’ four victories during their winning streak against St. John’s have been double-digit blowouts.
At home this season, the Wildcats average 74 points per game on 45.3 percent shooting while allowing a scant 58.5 ppg on 38 percent shooting. On the other hand, St. John’s has been outscored by an average of 18 ppg (82-64) when it hits the highway, shooting just 42.3 percent while letting the opposition make 49.2 percent of its field goals.
St. John’s is on ATS runs of 6-2 in Big East play, 8-3 after a double-digit home loss and 5-2 after a SU defeat, but it is also on pointspread slumps of 2-5 on the road, 2-5 against winning teams and 1-4 on Sunday. Meanwhile, Villanova carries nothing but negative ATS trends into this contest, including 2-5 overall, 2-5 at home, 0-4 in Big East play, 3-10 after a SU loss and 6-14 after a non-cover.
For the Red Storm, the under is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 8-2 on the road, 13-3 in league play and 4-0 after a SU loss. Also, Villanova is on under streaks of 20-6-1 overall, 24-9 at home, 10-4 in Big East action, 6-1 after a SU loss and 17-5-1 after a non-cover. Conversely, the over is 16-5 in St. John’s last 21 games on Sunday and 13-6-1 in the Wildcats’ last 20 on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
