Service Plays Sunday 1/18/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence's Playbook SUNDAY JANUARY 18

Philadelphia over ARIZONA by 7

Wouldn’t you know it? The team nobody wants to face is now
one game removed from the Super Bowl. Last Sunday’s
whuppin’ at New York kept the Eagles on track to repeat last
year’s feat by the Giants (and that of the Steelers in 2005), namely being
a No. 6 seed riding its way on the highway to the Super Bowl. To do so
they need to beat the Cardinals for the 2nd time this season, only this
time in Arizona. When last they met the Eagles routed the Red Birds, 48-
20, as 3-point home favorites Thanksgiving night. That victory improved
Andy Reid’s record to 7-2 ATS in this series. And speaking of Andy he’s
been just dandy in the playoffs when squaring off against .705 or less
opponents, going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in his career. Strangely, this game
marks just the 4th time since 1980 that both teams off SU underdog
playoff wins will face one another in a game other than the Super Bowl.
The good news for the Cardinals is that home teams in this role are 3-0
SU and ATS. The bad news, though, is that all of them were favored,
meaning underdogs are 0-3 SU and ATS. What to do, you ask? You
could turn to Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s 13-4 SU and 11-6
ATS record in home games. But then again we’d be obliged to inform
you of his 0-3 SU and ATS mark at home off back-to-back SU and ATS
wins. Then there’s the fact that teams off a SU playoff win as a dog of 7
or more points (read: Arizona) are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their next game
this decade – all as a dog! And dog lovers will say that playoff home dogs
are 16-6 ATS since 1980. Our database, though, tells us that home dogs
in Championship Round games are only 4-4 ATS. It also reminds us that
teams in this game off a win over a division rival (read: Philadelphia) are
6-0 SU and ATS. Trends and history aside, this game will be won on the
playing field and we’ll back the team with the better net stats and the
superior defense. Look out Tampa. The Eagles will be landing.
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PITTSBURGH over Baltimore by 10

Like the Eagles and Giants of a week ago, the Steelers and Ravens
lock division horns for the 3rd time this season with the loser
packing their bags and calling it a season. It’s been widely
reported by players and talking heads alike that beating the same team
three times in the same season is not an easy task. The fact of the
matter is same season double revenge matchups have occurred
nineteen times since 1980. The team that lost the first two games has
gone on to lose eleven of the nineteen 3rd game rematches in the
playoffs, going 10-8-1 ATS in the process. While holding a slight overall
ATS advantage, they are just 2-7 SU and ATS as favorites or dogs of
5.5 or less points but 5-4 SU and 7-1-1 ATS when taking 6 or more.
Statistically speaking, this game pairs the top two defenses in the
league. The Steelers have outgained ten of their last eleven foes while
the Ravens, with their 211-391 yard ‘inside-out’ stat win last week, are
7-5 ITS (In The Stats) in their last twelve games. Mike Tomlin is 11-1
SU and 8-4 ATS in division duels, including this year’s 23-20 overtime
and 13-9 victories over Baltimore. And the 202 yards they held the
Ravens to a month ago amounted to a season-low for the Black Birds.
Hence, it’s no surprise to learn that Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS
against division foes in the playoffs since 1978. Meanwhile, the Ravens
lead the league in takeaways and have turned the ball over only ten
times in their last thirteen games. They will, however, be playing their
18th straight game without rest whereas the Steelers will be entering
their 12th game with two weeks off spaced in between. One has to
wonder if the proverbial wall is waiting to hit rookie QB Joe Flacco.
The bottom line is teams off double-digit wins with the greater win
percentage hold the winning hand in Championship Round games,
especially when laying less than 10 points against an opponent off a
win of 3 or more points, as they are 20-5 SU and ATS since 1980. It’s
looking more and more like a Keystone State Super Bowl in the making.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettorsworld

3* Eagles -4 over Cards - We can sit back and romanticize about Kurt Warner returning to the Super Bowl, and the underdog Cardinals being the feel good underdog story of the year and so on and so forth, but from where we sit, it looks like that it the least likely outcome of this weeks NFC Championship game. It's incredibly difficult to make a case for the Cardinals this week. So, we won't.

We even gave the Cards the benefit of the doubt when breaking this down. Rather than taking into account games in New England and Minnesota, games they didn't need, we tossed those games. We took their two playoff games and then their 4 games against Seattle, Philly, the Rams and Giants in order to come up with a six game break down. It still ain't pretty. It's the defense that presents problems.

The yards per points numbers for the Eagles are 13.3 on offense and 24 on defense over their last 6 games. Those are Super Bowl numbers folks. They haven't given up more than 14 points in any of those 6 games. For the Cards, their numbers are 12.4 on offense and 11.7 on defense for the 6 games we considered. Not only are those not Super Bowl numbers, they aren't even playoff numbers.

The Cards went to Carolina and upset a Panther team that quite frankly was a bit shaky defensively, going in. Carolina had given up some big time points in games so really, no surprise that the Cards were able to do what they did. But we can't make a case for that happening again this week. It simply doesn't figure. The Cards have some questionable losses all through the entire season. They have no signature wins. During the regular season, when they played good teams, such as the Giants and these Eagles, they lost. They made their living beating the 49ers, Bills, Rams and Seahawks. This week they run into an incredibly talented, well coached, dangerous Eagles team playing as good or better than any other team remaining in the playoffs.

The Eagles have a core group on this team, including the QB and coaching staff, that's been to this game 4 times and the Super Bowl once. They are simply the better, more experienced team here on both sides of the ball. While we are not crazy about laying more than a field goal, the number is still reasonable. You've heard the saying cut off the head and the tail will follow? Well, when picking AFC and NFC title games, pick the winner of the game and the cover will follow. The pointspread simply hasn't come into play all that often in these title games. If you had just managed to pick the straight up winner the last 12 years in both the AFC and NFC title games you would have also gone 21-3 against the spread!

Well, we think we have the straight up winner pegged in the Eagles, so hopefully the cover follows. 3* Eagles -4 over Cards
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[thekeyman]

Dummylocks



confirmed card
Sunday
Phila minus 4
Arizona u21.5 team total **double play**
Balt +3.5 1st Half **double play**
Balt/Pitt o34

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Thank you for your purchase.
This is the information you paid for:

ATS Sports Club
Sunday, January 18, 2009
$25 NFC Championship Game Total Winner:

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals over 47



Thank you for your purchase.
This is the information you paid for:

ATS Sports Club
Sunday, January 18, 2009
$25 NFC Championship Game Side Winner:

Arizona Cardinals +4

 

[THECHICAGOCONNECTION]

ChicagoSportsConnection

Been looking at the Sunday hoops for a couple hours and it's tough to pull the trigger on anything.
Looking at TOR (12:30 EDT vs Phoenix)....

PHOE has Boston on Monday and just played Thursday(OT) in DEN and late Friday vs MINN....now play a Sunday morning game....it'll be 9:30 AZ time.
The only problem is TOR may be without their point guard (Calderon) who has some great #'s.
Toronto has lost four straight, but two were VS the Celtics...one @ a decent IND team, and one VS a (finally) healthy Bulls team.
TOR used to playing these early Sunday games and that is a big advantage here.

We'll go 1/2 UNIT on Toronto +4.....and I'll get back to you around tip off of this game with the rest of the plays.


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[tannguyen94]

Doc's Sports

4 Unit Play. #3 Take Philadelphia -3 ½ over Arizona
3 Unit Play.#6 Take Over 33 ½ in Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Eagles
Ravens
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve Budin
25 dimer

Pitt

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SIXTH SENSE‏


Right now my strongest lean is to Pittsburgh but I just don't have enough yet to make any Best Bets.

REG YTD 53-36-3 +37.20%
PLAY YTD 1-4 –11.20%

NO BEST BETS

League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.

Average Points Scored 22.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.2
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.1
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.3

Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.

Philadelphia –4 ARIZONA 47
PHILADELPHIA 24 ARIZONA 21

PITTSBURGH –6 Baltimore 34
PITTSBURGH 23 BALTIMORE 13
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS REPORTER

SUNDAY, JANUARY 18
PHILADELPHIA over *ARIZONA by 1
PHILADELPHIA, 28-27.


RECOMMENDED
*PITTSBURGH over BALTIMORE by 14
PITTSBURGH, 23-9.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Clemson Saturday.

Sunday it's the Cardinals and Steelers. The deficit is 170 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Barney44 who is spending time with Uncle Ceaser sent a message for the members that are interested in UC's play.

UC's play is the Eagles


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kevin Kavitch

The NFL playoffs have produced a perfect 5-0 result. Overall now a monitored 57-37-2 61% for the season and 21-8-1 72% during the past 7 weeks. Note: These picks won't give you a warm and cozy feeling. I guarantee most touts (who are masters of the "obvious") will be largely on Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. But all season the picks posted here have outperformed those handicappers by a big margin. Guess we'll see how Sunday plays out.


Weather won't be prohibitive and there's no shortage of ways teams can combine for more than 34 points, even with exceptional defences. Championship round games have rarely finished with less than 34 as both teams do everything possible for 60 minutes to make it to the big game. Big time players stepping up plus big mistakes with added pressure by others, much like Super Bowls. The defenses should make big plays on both sides but that could very easily easily lead to short fields for the offences. Pittsburgh's history of home Overs in recent years also is favorable. Playing the odds, I think that 6 out of 10 times this kind of matchup and situation would produce higher than 34 points. Play Over 34 for a 3* Regular Play.


I'm back on Baltimore again. They're 11-2 SU and ATS since Flacco began to get some games under his belt and I like the way he handles pressure. The Baltimore D gives them a chance to win any game outright and they played Pittsburgh down to the wire in both meetings this season. They may have been fortunate to get turnovers versus Tennessee but give them full marks for forcing them. Pittsburgh got blown out recently by that same Tennessee squad and Baltimore will not be intimidated by the Steelers. Plus I think Baltimore will be the hungrier team with Pittsburgh winning it all recently. Like I've mentioned earlier in the playoffs, Baltimore is my Super Bowl darkhorse and I still feel that way. I'll take the 6 points and an outright upset would not shock me. Take Baltimore +6 for a 3* Regular Play.


I see alot of touts spouting off about the Week 13 48-20 drubbing the Eagles hung on the Cardinals. So let's start there. To put it in perspective, the Eagles had an extreme motivational edge. They were off a tie vs the lowly Bengals followed by a blowout loss vs Baltimore in the McNabb "benching" game. Arizona had all but formally clinched their division and no shock that they came out flat on the road, hammered by the talented and pissed off Eagles. I'm not putting much stock in that game. Philly has played well and deserves to be here. But the Cards are being underestimated again. We picked up a win with them vs the Falcons but last week I passed on them as big road dogs vs a quality Carolina squad. Let me tell you, that was one of the most impressive performances I've seen from a team in that kind of position, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I've seen enough to know they should not be home underdogs of more than a FG, especially with Boldin looking better to contribute this week. Arizona has been a longtime doormat, very similar to the Bucanneers when they shockingly won it all in 2002. Add that the Cards were being touted by some as the "worst team to ever make the NFL playoffs". The players commented on that. Pride and motivation can add up to very strong performances and has again in this case. Being at home definitely will add fuel to the fire. Playing with confidence, defensive improvements, and a veteran QB playing at a high level the Cards have a puncher's chance vs anyone right now. I'll take more than a FG with the home dog Cardinals. Take Arizona +3.5 for a 3* Regular play.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MR A

Sunday, January 18th, 3:00 p.m. est.
N-F-C Championship Game
(6) Philadelphia Eagles (11-6-1) at (4) Arizona Cardinals (11-7)

Philadelphia Eagles -4

The Eagles are at the top of its game. McNabb is playing sound, safety Brian Dawkins and the defense are at the top of their game. If Eagles' running back Brian Westbrook has a good day, Arizona’s season surely comes to an end. Philadelphia is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 road games and is 5-2 both straight-up and against the spread in its last 7 meetings versus Arizona.

Sunday, January 18th, 6:30 p.m. est.
A-F-C Championship Game
(6) Baltimore Ravens (13-5) at (1) Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4)

Baltimore Ravens +6

This should be a great game between two potent defenses. But the Steelers have the edge with a superior offense and home field advantage. Then again, the Steelers had a tough battle beating the Ravens in the last two games, 23-20 overtime win in Pittsburgh and a 13-9 win at home. Besides, the Ravens went 5-3 on the road this season and won two playoff road games. This is going to be a close fight that could be decided in the closing minutes. Take the Ravens. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bill Simmons "The Sports Guy"
ESPN page 2 writer

Cards
Steelers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Computer Picks

Philadelphia Eagles -4
Baltimore Ravens +6
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Johnny Guild

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals, 3 p.m.
Now here are two really close teams and yes!, this will be a close game for sure. Even with the stats which are almost dead even is proving this idea. So the smart bet is with the team with the points being given plus who know they are the underdogs and have more to lose, which would be the Cardinals. The Eagles and the Cardinals will meet at the University of Phoenix Stadium on Sunday for tis Confernece Championship game. Like the last game look for Arizona to try to get their defense to intercept the Eagles passing game which I know that the eagles are looking out for that mistake the panthers made. Although the Eagles defense killed the Giants offense last game that probably would of been the sam tactics that Arizona would have done as well. Also keep in mind that the winner of this Sunday's NFC Championship game will become the first team with nine or fewer regular season wins to reach the Super Bowl since the 1979 Los Angeles Rams, who were 9-7 for the season. Good Luck Arizona... You deserve it!

Prediction: Arizona +4

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals, 3 p.m. ARIZONA +4

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, 6:30 p.m PITTSBURGH -5.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Sunday XAVIER -12

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ATS Lock Club
3 Cards +3.5
3 Ravens +6
5 S.Illinois -5.5
4 Minn +1.5

ATS Financial Package
3 Cards +3.5
3 Ravens +6
3 Georgia +7.5
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

RANDALL THE HANDLE

NFL SELECTIONS

Eagles @ Cardinals
Line: Philadelphia by 4
Okay, so it's a bit weird to have these two playing for the NFC Championship. Deal with it. In reality, it makes as much sense as almost any other pairing with the kind of unpredictable season it has been. More importantly, it offers us a good opportunity. Whether it is based on their unfamiliarity or the contempt for the Cardinals from their woeful past, their pitiful road record, their inability to play in the cold and memories of an earlier 48-20 pasting from these same Eagles, none of that matters here. Philadelphia is traveling for the third time in three weeks. While this visitor deserves credit for even being here against tremendous odds, P****y's two road wins came against a rudderless Vikings squad and a Giants team that was ripe for the pickings and one that they are all too familiar with. Prior to those two playoff games, the Eagles had to knock of the Cowboys in order to have chance of advancement. Will they have enough in their tank to succeed here? If so, it won't come easily. The Cardinals are a tough out at this venue. Arizona has gone 7-2 here thus far, 6-3 against the number and have covered 11 of 17 home games in two seasons under Ken Whisenhunt. Behind a revived Kurt Warner and a prolific passing game, the Cards racked up 427 points this season with only the Saints and Chargers exceeding them. Arizona's defence has been an area of concern but its recent play has relieved some of those fears after the Cardinals stymied two of the league's better running attacks by holding both Atlanta's Michael Turner, the No. 2 rusher in the regular season, to a mere 42 yards and Carolina's DeAngelo Williams, the league's 3rd ranked rusher, to just 63 yards. Philadelphia is most effective when RB Brian Westbrook is utilized but there is concern over Westbrook's wobbly legs and ultimately, his effectiveness. We can also discount the aforementioned U.S. Thanksgiving Day pasting as Arizona was in a near impossible situation to succeed having just faced the Giants then traveling east on three days rest and pretty much having its division locked up. No doubt that the Cardinals' NFC West is a weak division and that the Cards looked mediocre down the stretch but they appear to have flipped the switch at the right time after disposing of the pesky Falcons and then shocking the previously home unbeaten Panthers in a romp. Call it disrespect or lack of credibility or whatever you'd like but this is not a popularity contest and despite Arizona's offensive prowess, its solid play at home and its recent triumphs, it is the Eagles who are favoured by four points and that seems unjust to us.

TAKING: Arizona +4
RISKING: 2.1 units to win 2


Ravens @ Steelers PINNACLE
Line: Pittsburgh by 6
We know. You love the Steelers. Everyone does. Whether they are your father's championship teams of the 70's, your brother's winning squad during the Bill Cowher era or this rugged present day group, what is there not to like? They are tough, they are steady and they get things done. They are blue collar extraordinaire. Don't think for a moment that such sentiment does not factor into Pittsburgh pointspreads. It does. And it has here. People that can be objective lined the Steelers up as a three to four point pick. Not six. Not when Baltimore and Pittsburgh know each other, oh so well. Not when their previous two regular-season games resulted in a 23-20 overtime win and a hard fought 13-9 decision, both in favour of the Steelers. Not when Pittsburgh was hammered just three weeks ago by the same Tennessee team that the Ravens just eliminated from the playoffs. Pittsburgh may alloted some points for home-field but playing on the road doesn't bother Baltimore. The Ravens were 5-3 in regular season away games. In two playoff games thus far, they marched into Miami and buried the Dolphins before heading to Tennessee to dispose of the top-ranked Titans. Pittsburgh may have been 6-2 at home but a closer look finds that it was just 4-4 versus the number and that its four covers came against Houston, Dallas, Cincinnati and Cleveland, all non-playoff teams. The four failed covers came against, you guessed it, four playoff participants that included the Giants, Chargers, Colts and these same Ravens. Pitt was favoured on all four non-covers that included two losses, an overtime win and a one-point victory. Baltimore is lucrative group away from home as the Blackbirds have covered seven of past eight when traveling. With the top two defences in the league squaring off, oddsmakers have set the total at 34 points for this one. Points will be at a premium with starting time and weather not exactly aiding the scoreboard either. This game is being played at night with kickoff slated for 6:30 Eastern time with some snowy rainy conditions expected. While Pittsburgh has a definite edge at the quarterback position, this game could come down to the run. If so, the Ravens may have the advantage. Pittsburgh's offensive line had a heck of time this season. It was evident in Ben Roethlisberger's numbers while the effect on the ground game was overlooked. The Steelers, known for strong running attacks, ranked a distant 23rd this season. Behind the impressive duo of Le'Ron McClain and Willis McGahee, the Ravens ranked 4th. This figures to be a rock 'em, sock 'em affair and the team that hits hardest will emerge. Opinions will vary on which team that might be but with a near touchdown being offered, our choice becomes an easy one.

TAKING: Baltimore +6
RISKING: 2.1 units to win 2