Service Plays Sunday 1/18/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports MarketWatch – NFL Playoffs

Recapping Regular Season

Christmas started early in NFL Week 15 and 16, but the party ended for the sportsbooks in NFL Week 17. All sportsbooks reported flat profits in Week 17 with most sportsbooks losing anywhere between 0%-2% of their handle.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public came out on top, going 5-2 -- making the Public 57-75 = 43.2% for the season. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis stumbled in the last week going 0-1, making it 26-22-2 = 54.2% for the season. Not bad for a free weekly column; imagine the money you'd have won by using our Premium Pro membership! If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a Premium Pro Membership. Your bankroll will thank you!

2005 Games to Watch: 33-25 = 56.9%
2006 Games to Watch: 31-18 = 63.3%
2007 Games to Watch: 25-19 = 56.8%
2008 Games to Watch: 26-22 = 54.2%

Special Thanks

I'd like to thank the line managers at our contributing sportsbooks for taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and minds. It's been an education in itself. I'd also like to thank the loyal readers of Sports Marketwatch. Your encouragement and support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope the Sports Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of line value – while helping them to another profitable NFL Season. Visit SportsInsights.com to view Live Betting Statistics coming from the line boards of multiple sportsbooks.

Basketball – Produces More Plays + Higher Win %

This weekly column is designed to highlight the revolutionary sports betting information found on SportsInsights.com. As much fun as football is to bet and watch, basketball has been our most CONSISTENT and PROFITABLE sport. Basketball produces mores plays and a higher win percentage. Take your winnings from this year's NFL Sports Marketwatch and purchase a Premium Pro membership at SportsInsights.com today. Your bankroll will thank you!

NFL Playoffs - Games to Watch (0-2 = 0.0%)

The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game's betting line. They'll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.


Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers

The Public loves the Ravens right now. The Ravens pounded the Miami Dolphins in the first round of the playoffs before holding the powerhouse Tennessee Titans to 10 points last week. More than 60% of the bets of the bets are coming in on the Baltimore Ravens. However, the line opened at Pittsburgh -5 and has moved to Pittsburgh -6. This means that some "big money" is taking the Pittsburgh Steelers.

We'll "bet against the Public" and take the Steelers -- tagging along with the "big money" or "smart money." The Ravens have been on a roll -- and six points seems like a lot of points to give in what might be a low-scoring game. This is a good contrarian value on several levels. Take the Steelers and give the points.

Play On Pittsburgh Steelers

So, here's a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week's Games to Watch:

Games to Watch - Playoff Editions (0-2 = 0.0%)
Pittsburgh Steelers -6

 

[JoeThePlumber]

Al DeMarco
15* Pitt

 

[JoeThePlumber]

Ben Burns
NFL total of the month


I'm playing on Arizona and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total

Main Event
Arizona

Championship Round GOY
Pitt

 

[glcsports]

Billy Coleman

4* Pittsburgh

 

[JoeThePlumber]

Hondo
6-2 (2-2 last week)

EAGLES 22, CARDINALS 19

RAVENS 23, STEELERS 20

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wild Bill

NFL Championship Week, Jan 18, 2009

Philadelphia Eagles -3 (5 units)
Steelers -5 (5 units)
Cards-Eagles Over 48 (5 units)
Steelers-Ravens Over 33 (5 units)

7 pt teaser: Eagles +4, Steelers +2, Over 41 Eagles-Cards (5 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Carlo Campanella

Game: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Jan 18 2009 6:30PM
Prediction: over
Reason: These teams meet for the 3rd time this season on Sunday, with Pittsburgh winning both of the first two meetings, 23-20 at home and 13-9 in Baltimore. While the Steelers covered the spread in each of first two meetings, the Total split, paying on one "Under" and on the "Over" at Pittsburgh. That "Over" marked the 3rd straight game in this series played in Pitt that has gone "Over" the Total, improving the "Over" to 9-4 (Over-Under) during the last 13 games hosted by the Steelers. WIth the cold and winter-like weather conditions combined with the Ravens stingy defensive play this year, Oddsmakers have posted a very low Total for an NFL Playoff game. Pittsburgh has now gone "Over" in 15 of their last 20 games hosting AFC teams and these Division rivals know each other well to score points on the board in this AFC Championship battle.


7* Play On OVER
<!-- / message -->

 

[NinersFan]

Gamebreaker pick

[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]Gamebreaker/Kevin Kavitch[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]NFL playoffs 5-0. Monitored 57-37-2 61% for the season and 21-8-1 72% run. Site says he'll be adding at least one more.[/FONT]


Sunday, January 18, 2009

<TABLE class=registerfields border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=200><TABLE style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana" width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=scoreoddsheader colSpan=2>6:30 PM</TD></TR><TR><TD width=150>Pittsburgh</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR><TD>Baltimore</TD><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width=10></TD><TD>
Spread Pick
Picked Baltimore with spread of +6 (-108)
100 units were wagered.

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I'm back on Baltimore again. They're 11-2 SU and ATS since Flacco began to get some games under his belt and I like the way he handles pressure. The Baltimore D gives them a chance to win any game outright and they played Pittsburgh down to the wire in both meetings this season. They may have been fortunate to get turnovers versus Tennessee but give them full marks for forcing them. Pittsburgh got blown out recently by that same Tennessee squad and Baltimore will not be intimidated by the Steelers. Plus I think Baltimore will be the hungrier team with Pittsburgh winning it all recently. Like I've mentioned earlier in the playoffs, Baltimore is my Super Bowl darkhorse and I still feel that way. I'll take the 6 points and an outright upset would not shock me. Take Baltimore +6 for a 3* Regular Play.
​

 

[brady1983]

Larry Ness Sunday

10* NFL AFC Championship Total



NFL Championship Game 10* Total on Bal/Pit Over.


Larry's Las Vegas Insider-AFC Champ Game


Las Vegas Insider on the Pit Steelers



Weekend Wipeout Winner- NFL Championship Game

Weekend Wipeout Winner Phi Eagles

 

[HarleyRoadKing]

Sports Network


Given the ease in which the Eagles handled the Cardinals earlier this season and Arizona's shaky overall credentials, a repeat of what happened when these teams squared off nearly two months ago isn't out of the question. It's more than likely, however, that Philadelphia will have a considerably harder time this week against a Cardinals club that should be buoyed by playing at home and a renewed sense of confidence from a most impressive win its last time out. Having Warner and his 7-2 lifetime record in the playoffs isn't exactly a detriment for the host team, either, and the two-time league MVP will present a sterner test than Minnesota's Tarvaris Jackson or a frazzled Eli Manning gave the Eagles over their past two games. Still, Philadelphia's overall experience and superiority on defense cannot be overlooked, and neither can that 28-point margin of victory six weeks back. While the Cardinals will surely acquit themselves better this time around, it's hard to believe the playoff-tested Eagles will make the same mistakes that sealed the Panthers and Falcons' fates.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Eagles 26, Cardinals 17


Though NFL lore says that beating a team three times in one season is difficult, it also says that superior teams typically beat inferior ones, and Pittsburgh has proven on two occasions that it is slightly better than Baltimore. Both of the first two matchups between these teams have been impacted heavily by turnovers. The rookie Flacco has committed three, while also absorbing seven sacks. Roethlisberger, meanwhile, has coughed it up just once, and logic says that he'll continue to be the more sure-handed of the two signal-callers. There's no real reason why this shouldn't be a close, low- scoring contest between two hard-hitting teams that are matched rather evenly, but picking a rookie QB on the road in such a momentous contest - even a quarterback as sharp as Flacco - just doesn't make a lot of sense.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Steelers 17, Ravens 13

 

[HarleyRoadKing]

Bill Simmons "The Sports Guy"
ESPN page 2 writer

Cards
Steelers

 

[cris_19]

The Soccer expert

29-7 Sides
9-3 Parleys

Sunday games:
Inter Milan to win
Italian league(09:00AM)
AS Monaco vs. Caen over 2
France league (11:00AM)
Parley:
Inter Milan to win
Italian league(09:00AM)
AS Monaco vs. Caen over 2
France league (11:00AM)

 

[ymmit2nd]

RON RAYMOND’S 5* NFL BEST BET PICK OF THE WEEKEND!


Pick # 1 Baltimore Ravens (6.0)

 

[LEFTCOASTSHARP]

Dommylocks comp selection.......

Dommylocks comp selection
--------------------------------

arizona team total under 21.5

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Raging Bull

Soccer:

1* AS Roma/FC Torino over 2.5 (Italy Serie A)

1* Celtic/Aberdeen FC over 2.5 (Scottish Premier League)

2* Ajax/NEC Nijmegen over 3 (Dutch Eredivisie)

2* Valencia/Athletic Bilbao over 2.5 (Spain La Liga)

3* FC Groningen/Sparta Rotterdam over 3 (Dutch Eredivisie)

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Thank you for your purchase.
This is the information you paid for:

ATS Sports Club
Sunday, January 18, 2009
$25 Soccer Back of the Net Winner:

Italy Serie A
Inter Milan -125



Thank you for your purchase.
This is the information you paid for:

ATS Sports Club
Sunday, January 18, 2009
$25 Soccer Back of the Net Winner:

Spain La Liga
Osasuna vs. Real Madrid over 3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

redzone

over pit/bal
<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Logical Approach

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP - Sunday, January 18, 2009 - Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

Opening Line: Philadelphia - 3 ½, currently - 3 ½; Opening Total: 48 ½, currently 48 ½

Arizona's performance in winning their first two Playoff games has started to make believers of those who have considered the Cardinals to be one of the weakest Playoff teams ever. The perception had validity considering how Arizona's season played out. The Cards were 6-0 against their weak NFC West Division rivals (who were a combined 13-35 this season) while going just 3-7 against the rest of the NFL. In the 6 Divisional wins Arizona outscored their rivals by a total of 79 points while being outscored by 78 points in their 10 non-Divisional games. They similarly outgained their NFC West foes by a healthy margin while being outgained in their other games. But in the Playoffs Arizona has played with great poise and confidence in ousting both Atlanta and Carolina. The task gets tougher against a very experienced Philadelphia team making their fifth Conference Championship game appearance in 8 seasons. There is a veteran nucleus led by QB Donovan McNabb on offense, Brian Dawkins on defenses and coach by Andy Reid. Aside from QB Kurt Warner -- who was a Super Bowl MVP -- Arizona has a roster of limited playoff experience other than the past two weeks. Both teams ranked in the top ten offensively during the regular season but the Eagles had a huge edge defensively, allowing 57 yards per game less than the Cardinals while playing a tougher schedule. Arizona has the more potent pass offense while Philly's edge in the ground game is even greater. Arizona had the league's worst rushing offense at 74 yards per game. Philadelphia's defense is well balanced, ranking # 3 against the rush and # 4 against the pass. In the earlier meeting the Eagles intercepted Warner three times. Philly QB McNabb - playing in the aftermath of his benching a few days earlier and media circus it precipitated -- had his best game of the season and that effort triggered their late season run that has many comparing the Eagles of this season to the Giants of last season. And Philly has not disappointed with a pair of road Playoff wins. They have not allowed over 14 points in any of their last 6 games. At the same time Arizona has scored at least 30 points in each of their last 3 games. When it comes to a matchup of offense versus defense the latter usually prevails in the games of great importance. It's been a great season for Arizona and they have much to build upon, even with an aging QB still showing he's got something left in the tank. But now the task gets tougher and it will be hard for the Cards to overcome the experience of the Eagles. As we saw when these teams met on Thanksgiving, Philadelphia matches up very well against Arizona, especially the Eagles' defense against Warner. Arizona's reliance on the passing game against a top notch defense will ultimately prove decisive. The Arizona running game, which fared well in the wins over Atlanta and Carolina, should struggle here. If Arizona is to pull of the upset it will likely be due to their defense maintaining their level of the past two weeks. If Arizona loses it's likely because they are unable to solve the Eagles' defense. Both suggest a lower scoring game than the oddsmakers expect. The call is for Philly to win 27-16, making \
PHILADELPHIA a 3 Star Selection
UNDER a 2 Star Selection .


AFC CHAMPIONSHIP - Sunday, January 18, 2009 - Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Opening Line: Pittsburgh - 6, currently - 5; Opening Total: 34, currently 34

Pittsburgh won both regular season meetings with their long time Division rival but neither came easily. In their first meeting, a Monday nighter in late September, Baltimore led 13-3 at the half in Pittsburgh before the Steelers rallied to take a 20-13 lead early in the fourth quarter. Baltimore forced overtime with a TD with 4 minutes remaining before Pittsburgh won on a FG 6 minutes into the extra session. The stats were fairly even although Baltimore ran 14 more offensive plays. The rematch was in week 15 and that game was every bit as dramatic as their first meeting. Pittsburgh won 13-9, scoring the game winning TD with 43 seconds remaining on a play that was ruled short of the goal line by the on field officials but was reversed to a TD by the replay officials. Pittsburgh did have a significant yardage edge (311 to 202) while running just 9 more plays. There's reason to believe this game will be just as tightly contested. Both teams have outstanding defenses. The Steelers had the NFL's # 1 defense, allowing just 237 yards per game. The Ravens were #2 (261 ypg). Both defenses were equally as strong against the rush as against the pass. Pittsburgh was #2 vs. the rush and # 3 vs. the pass while Baltimore was #3 vs. the rush and #2 vs. the pass. Baltimore had a much more productive rushing offense (149 vs. 105 ypg). Both offenses were average in avoiding turnovers. Baltimore's defense led the league by forcing 34 turnovers although Pittsburgh was not far behind with 29. Pittsburgh does have the edge at QB with Ben Roethlisberger having already led the Steelers to a Super Bowl victory. But it's hard to find fault with anything Baltimore's rookie QB Joe Flacco has done this season. The Ravens are also led by a rookie head coach, John Harbaugh while Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin is just in his second season. Let's also remember that Baltimore was 13-3 just two season ago. Their 2007 season was ruined by an unusually high number of key injuries that greatly limited their offense. The defense in 2007 was still among the league's best, including being #2 against the rush. So defensively there has been a continuity of excellence for the Ravens. Pittsburgh's defense has also been excellent going back several seasons so this game figures to be one of field position and field goals rather than big plays and touchdowns. Whatever big plays are made are more likely to be made by the defense. The first two meetings could have gone either way. There is very little difference between these teams who in many ways are mirror images of one another. Pittsburgh does have the edges of more recent Playoff experience on their roster and are playing at home. So the Steelers should be able to get the win. But this shapes up a game in which the points will matter, especially with the line above a FG. Much like last week's game between a pair of similarly constructed teams based on defense, Baltimore and Tennessee, a late FG could well be the difference. The call is for Pittsburgh to win 16-13, making

BALTIMORE a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 1 Star Selection .
<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS NETWORK OVERALL ANALYSIS

Though NFL lore says that beating a team three times in one season is difficult, it also says that superior teams typically beat inferior ones, and Pittsburgh has proven on two occasions that it is slightly better than Baltimore. Both of the first two matchups between these teams have been impacted heavily by turnovers. The rookie Flacco has committed three, while also absorbing seven sacks. Roethlisberger, meanwhile, has coughed it up just once, and logic says that he'll continue to be the more sure-handed of the two signal-callers. There's no real reason why this shouldn't be a close, low- scoring contest between two hard-hitting teams that are matched rather evenly, but picking a rookie QB on the road in such a momentous contest - even a quarterback as sharp as Flacco - just doesn't make a lot of sense.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Steelers 17, Ravens 13
<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS NETWORK OVERALL ANALYSIS

Given the ease in which the Eagles handled the Cardinals earlier this season and Arizona's shaky overall credentials, a repeat of what happened when these teams squared off nearly two months ago isn't out of the question. It's more than likely, however, that Philadelphia will have a considerably harder time this week against a Cardinals club that should be buoyed by playing at home and a renewed sense of confidence from a most impressive win its last time out. Having Warner and his 7-2 lifetime record in the playoffs isn't exactly a detriment for the host team, either, and the two-time league MVP will present a sterner test than Minnesota's Tarvaris Jackson or a frazzled Eli Manning gave the Eagles over their past two games. Still, Philadelphia's overall experience and superiority on defense cannot be overlooked, and neither can that 28-point margin of victory six weeks back. While the Cardinals will surely acquit themselves better this time around, it's hard to believe the playoff-tested Eagles will make the same mistakes that sealed the Panthers and Falcons' fates.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Eagles 26, Cardinals 17
<!-- / message -->