Jeff Benton
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->15 Dime: CHARGERS (plus the points vs. Steelers) ... NOTE: If this line is sitting at 6 1/2, buy the half point and grab 7, which is obviously a key number in football.
15 Dime: GIANTS (minus the points vs. Eagles) ... NOTE: This line is bouncing between 4 1/2 and 4. Be sure to shop around and get the best of the number!
10 Dime: Eagles-Giants UNDER the total
Chargers
Well aware of the fact that Pittsburgh fields the best defense in the NFL – one of the best we’ve seen in years. Also aware of the fact that that Steelers defense completely shut down the Chargers in an 11-10 regular-season victory back on Nov. 16 (a game that should’ve been 18-10 and a Pittsburgh spread-cover if not for a botched officiating call on a fumble return for a score on the final play of the game).
However, this is a completely different Chargers offense – and a completely different Chargers team – than the one that went to Pittsburgh two months ago. San Diego is riding a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS), including last week’s impressive, gutsy 23-17 overtime win over the Colts. That game was a coming-out party for San Diego scatback Darren Sproles, a 5-for-6 (maybe) bowling ball of a running back who more than made up for the loss of LaDainian Tomlinson.
Although that was the first time the majority of the nation got a glimpse of Sproles, I’ve been watching him all season. He’s a unique and valuable weapon, almost always the fastest guy on the field who uses his size to his advantage (many times, defenders admit that they simply cannot find him on the field because he’s so short). For some bizarre reason, despite his success, the Chargers’ coaches have been unwilling to put the ball in Sproles’ in certain games. That includes the 11-10 loss at the Steelers, when Sproles touched the ball on offense just twice – one rush and one catch.
Now, some believe that Sproles won’t have nearly the success against the Steelers’ physical D as he did last week. Maybe. But I believe he’ll have some success, because Pittsburgh’s defenders are aggressive and over-pursue a lot of plays. If they don’t have a spy on Sproles, especially in blitzing situations, the little guy is going to make them pay. Also, speaking of the Chargers offense, there isn’t a hotter QB in the playoffs right now then Philip Rivers, and the fact he’s seen this Pittsburgh defense once already is a big advantage for him and the San Diego offense.
As for the Steelers’ offense, it doesn’t scare me one bit. It managed just 21.7 points per game – and that includes several defensive scores – and 312 yards per game. Ben Roethlisberger threw nearly as many INTs (15) as TD passes, and his QB rating (80.2) was 20 points lower than Rivers’ (102.2). And remember, the last time we saw “Big Ben” he was flat on his back on a stretcher after suffering a concussion in the season finale against Cleveland. It was Roethlisberger’s fourth concussion since entering the NFL, and after returning from his last one, he tossed four INTs in a game against the Raiders.
Today, Roethlisberger faces a Chargers D that completely stymied Peyton Manning last week and is allowing only 18 ppg during the team’s five-game winning streak (and held the Steelers to three field goals two months ago at Heinz Field – Pittsburgh’s other two points came on a safety).
One very, very, VERY important last point to make about this game: San Diego, as the world finally saw last week, possesses one of the best punters in the game in Mike Scifres, while the Steelers just re-signed veteran punter Mitch Berger, a guy they though so highly of that they cut just a few weeks ago. With horrible weather expected on what is notoriously THE worst grass field in the NFL, field position is going to be immensely key in this contest. And with Scifres vs. Berger – not to mention Sproles returning kicks and punts for the Bolts – San Diego could easily own the field position battle.
Bottom line: Pittsburgh won just three of seven games against this year’s set of playoff teams. Not only did the Steelers average just 13 ppg in those eight contests, but their three wins were by a COMBINED eight points. Given that, plus the fact the Chargers have the better (and hotter and healthier) quarterback, a dangerous weapon (Sproles) that the Steelers’ D hasn’t seen all year, a field-possession changer in Scifres, incredible momentum and the confidence that they came to crappy Heinz Field and nearly knocked off the Steelers once this season, and it’s enough to get me on the underdog. Give me the points, and don’t be surprised to see an outright upset.
Giants
It seems as if the world has fallen in love with the Philadelphia Eagles, and for the life of me, I can’t figure out why. I know I backed them last week in their game at Minnesota, but as I mentioned at the time, it was more a play against the Vikings and their QB Tarvaris Jackson than it was a play on the Eagles. And when you get right down to it, if Jackson doesn’t throw a pick-six in the first half and if Brian Westbrook doesn’t bust a short screen pass for a 71-yard TD with less than seven minutes to go in the fourth quarter, the Eagles would’ve produced just four field goals and lost 14-12.
In fact, the Eagles’ inability to put the pigskin in the end zone has become a problem that has received little publicity. Consider this: Philadelphia has scored 103 points in its last four games, which is obviously pretty impressive. However, only 42 of those points (six TDs) were the result of offensive touchdowns. The rest were defensive scores and field goals. Also, in its last four road games – in which Philly went 2-1-1 – the offense generated just five touchdowns. That includes no TDs in their last road trip, a 10-3 loss in a critical game at Washington in the next-to-last contest of the season.
Yes, two weeks before falling flat against Washington, the Eagles went to the Meadowlands and cooled off the then-red hot Giants 20-14. And yes, the final score wasn’t nearly as indicative of how dominant Philly was in that game, as the Giants’ two touchdowns came on a blocked field goal returned for a score at the end of the first half and a garbage TD with 20 seconds to play, and the Eagles outgained New York by 120 yards that day. However, two HUGE points need to be made about that game: 1) the Giants were without RB Brandon Jacobs, who was injured, and 2) the Giants dealt with a ton of distractions leading up to the game, as that was the week when the Plaxico Burress crap hit the fan. You cannot underestimate the impact of either of those issues, particularly the loss of Jacobs, who had 126 of New York’s 219 rushing yards when the Giants won 36-31 in Philadelphia as a three-point underdog in mid-November.
Today, New York gets a healthy (and well-rested) Jacobs back on the field, and his presence, I think, is going to be the biggest difference in this game, because his bruising style of running is exactly the kind that gives Philadelphia’s otherwise stout run D the biggest problem. Also, with Jacobs on the field, it not only allows his talented backup (1,000-yard rusher Derrick Ward) to remain fresh, but it helps Eli Manning tremendously in the passing game because Jacobs keeps the defense honest and he’s one of the best pass-protecting blocking backs in the game.
A few more points to make: The Giants come into this one very well rested, while the Eagles are playing their what amounts to their seventh straight pressure-packed, must-win game. Also, New York went 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS at home this year, averaging 28.5 points and 362.2 yards per game (179 rushing ypg) while allowing 15.6 points and 266 yards per game (99.9 rushing ypg). The team’s only non-covers at home came against the Eagles and in a Week 3, pre-bye-week 26-23 overtime win over the Bengals when New York simply went through the motions. In their other five home wins, the Giants won by margins of 9, 38, 12, 21, 20, and 6 points.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia, even after last week’s win at Minnesota, is just 4-4-1 SU and 5-4 ATS on the road, including the embarrassing loss at Washington, an unforgivable tie at Cincinnati and a total no-show at Baltimore (36-7). In fact, that loss at Baltimore was the only time prior to today that the Eagles played consecutive road games this season.
Finally, although it seems as if some folks have forgotten, the Giants ARE the defending Super Bowl champs, a team that rolled through the postseason last year with a 4-0 SU and ATS record. They’ve cashed in their last five playoff games overall, they went 9-3 ATS as a favorite this season (often a big favorite), they’re 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games overall, and – prior to that home loss to Philadelphia a month ago, a loss that I noted came with some important “yeah, buts” – the Giants had won three straight games and covered in four in a row against the Eagles.
In the end, I come back to my initial point that the Eagles are being overvalued, while the defending champs – for the first time since the start of last year’s playoffs – are being sold short by the oddsmakers. And I think the players in New York’s locker room will feed off the disrespect and the fact that the majority of analysts believe the Giants are the one team ripe for an upset. No upset here, though. Backed by a defense that will give Philly’s end-zone-challenged offense fits all day and a rejuvenated Jacobs in the backfield, the champs will win this by at least a touchdown.
Giants-Eagles UNDER the total
I’ve already stated my case about the Eagles’ offense needing a GPS system to find the end zone lately. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ defense has been very impressive of late, allowing 14 points or less in five straight games (10.8 ppg allowed during this stretch). I also mentioned how great the Giants’ defense was at home this season, allowing only 15.6 ppg and 266 yards per game. In fact, only six of eight teams that went to the Meadowlands in the regular season put the ball in the end zone more than twice.
Coming into this contest, the Eagles are on a 3-0-1 “under” streak, with the lone “over” coming in the season finale against the Cowboys, thanks to two defensive TDs by Philly. Meanwhile, the Giants stayed under the total in four of their last five regular-season games, with the four “unders” featuring combined point totals of 30, 34, 28 and 39. What’s more, the last five times these divisional rivals have squared off, the under hit four times, with final scores of 20-14 and 16-3 in the last two meetings in New York.
Lastly, and most importantly, we’ve got potential weather issues in this contest, with snow, biting cold and wind all in the forecast. If that forecast holds up, we can expect to see the ball in the hands of Eagles RBs Brian Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter, and Giants tailbacks Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward, a lot today. After all, we all know how conservative coaches get this time of year, and two of the most conservative in the NFL – Tom Coughlin and Andy Reid – are involved in this one.
In addition to the aforementioned “under” trends, the under is 5-1 in the Giants’ last six playoff games, 7-2 in the Giants’ last nine divisional games, 6-1-1 in the Eagles’ last eight playoff contests and 5-1 in Philly’s last six on the road. This one smells like a 20-10 Giants victory. Play it UNDER the total.
Guys, maybe consider this but do not follow blindly. He lost 45 dimes yesterday on Carolina, Tennessee, and BC in NCAA BB
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