THE SPORTS ADVISORS
Philadelphia (10-6-1, 11-6 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (12-4 SU and ATS)
The defending Super Bowl champion Giants, who got last week off as the NFC’s No. 1 seed, play host to the surging Eagles in a playoff battle of NFC East rivals at the Meadowlands.
New York finished the regular season on a 1-3 SU skid (2-2 ATS), including a 20-19 loss to Minnesota. However, the Giants rested or limited several players in that contest, so much so that they went off as a seven-point road underdog, yet the Vikings still needed a last-second field goal to get the victory playing at full strength. QB Eli Manning (11 of 19, 119 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) played only the first half, and David Carr (8 of 11, 110 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was solid in relief as New York had no turnovers and rallied from a 10-0 first-quarter deficit. Even in losing, the Giants outgained the Vikes 357-328 and won the time-of-possession battle by almost nine minutes (34:19-25:41).
With the Giants losing but covering against the Vikings, the SU winner failed to cover for the first time in New York’s last 13 games.
Sixth-seeded Philadelphia faced that same Minnesota team last Sunday in the wild-card round, pulling away for a 26-14 victory as a three-point road chalk to improve to 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six weeks. QB Donovan McNabb (23 of 34, 300 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was solid, despite throwing one pick and losing a fumble, and RB Brian Westbrook came up with McNabb’s lone TD pass, turning a screen play into a 71-yard scoring jaunt to put Minnesota in control with a 23-14 lead midway through the fourth quarter. The Eagles defense got a 44-yard INT return for a score from Asante Samuel in the first half, and it shut out Minnesota in the second half, holding RB Adrian Peterson (20 carries, 83 yards, 2 TDs) well below his season average of 110 rushing ypg.
These division rivals met just over a month ago in the same location, with Philly claiming a 20-14 win as a 6½-point road underdog, halting a 3-0 SU and 4-0 ATS run by New York in this series. The underdog has cashed in the last eight clashes, including six outright upsets, and the road team is on a 6-1 ATS tear. That includes New York’s 36-31 win in Philadelphia as a three-point ‘dog in the first meeting this season.
New York led the NFL in rushing offense (157.4 yards per game, 5.0 yards per carry) and ranked in the Top 10 in scoring offense (26.7 points per game, tied for third) and total offense (355.9 ypg, seventh). RBs Brandon Jacobs (1,089 yards, 5.0 ypc) and Derrick Ward (1,025 yards, 5.6 ypc) both cracked the 1,000-yard barrier, with Jacobs 11th and Ward 15th among the league’s top rushers. Jacobs also had 15 rushing TDs, tying Tennessee’s Lendale White for third. Manning completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 3,238 yards with 21 TDs and 10 INTs.
The Giants also fielded a Top 10 defense as well, with averages of 18.4 ppg (fifth), 288.8 total ypg (fourth), 196.2 passing ypg (eighth) and 95.8 rushing yards (ninth). New York finished the year with a plus-9 turnover differential.
In the regular season, Philly had the league’s sixth-best scoring offense (26 ppg) and was ninth in total offense (350.5 ypg), paced by the sixth-rated passing attack (244.4 ypg). McNabb completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 3,916 yards and 23 TDs, against 11 INTs. Also, Westbrook, despite being dinged up a few times during the season, rushed for 936 yards (4.0 ypc) and nine TDs, and he had 54 catches for another 402 yards and five scores.
Philadelphia fielded one of the league’s best defenses, allowing 18.1 ppg, 274.3 total ypg (third), 182.1 passing ypg (third) and 92.2 rushing ypg (fourth). The Eagles finished the year with a plus-3 turnover differential, and last week, they played even with the Vikes, as both teams had two giveaways.
The Giants went 9-3 ATS as a chalk this season (6-1 last seven) and were 6-2 ATS at home, and they are on further spread-covering streaks of 21-6 overall, 4-0 in January, 5-0 in the playoffs (including last year’s Super Bowl title run), 7-1 after a SU loss, 5-1 at home and 16-5 against winning teams. The lone knock against New York: a 6-13 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road record.
The Eagles are on a slew of positive ATS streaks, including 5-1 in the postseason, 11-4 on the highway, 4-0 in playoff roadies, 4-0 as an underdog, 10-1 as a road pup and 4-0 against winning teams. Philly is also 5-1 ATS in its last six divisional playoff games.
The over for New York is on runs of 9-4-1 at home and 7-3-1 with the Giants favored, and the over for Philadelphia is on stretches of 20-6 with the Eagles as an underdog, 7-2 with the Eagles as a road pup and 23-10-1 against winning teams. However, the under for the Giants is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-1 in the playoffs, 4-1 in January and 7-2 against the NFC East, and the under for the Eagles is on streaks of 6-1-1 in the playoffs, 5-1-1 after a SU win and 5-1 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
AFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
San Diego (9-8, 8-8-1 ATS) at Pittsburgh (12-4, 9-7 ATS)
The fourth-seeded Chargers, winners of five straight games, make the cross-country trek to Heinz Field to take on the Steelers, who won six of seven down the stretch to get the AFC’s second seed and a bye week.
San Diego, which had to win its last four regular-season games just to get into the playoffs, kept rolling in last Saturday’s wild-card contest by edging Indianapolis 23-17 in overtime as a 1½-point home underdog. QB Philip Rivers (20 of 36, 217 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) had a sub-par outing by his standards, and the Chargers lost the turnover battle 2-0. But RB Darren Sproles – picking up the slack for an ailing LaDainian Tomlinson – had 105 yards and two TDs on 23 carries (4.6 ypc), five catches for 45 yards, plus another 178 yards on kickoff and punt returns for a whopping 328 all-purpose yards.
Sproles clinched the victory with a 22-yard TD run on the only possession of overtime. Tomlinson (5 carries, 25 yards, 1 TD) was limited by a groin tear, and is doubtful this game.
Despite having nothing to play for, Pittsburgh capped the regular season with a 31-0 shuout of Cleveland as an 11-point home chalk, ending on a 5-1 SU and ATS run. But the win over the Browns came at a cost, as QB Ben Roethlisberger (9 of 14, 110 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) suffered a concussion in the second quarter and did not return. RB Willie Parker (23 carries, 116 yards, 1 TD) led a ground game that gained 176 yards, and the Steelers’ finished with a 369-126 edge in total yards. Pittsburgh also won the turnover battle 2-0, with Tyrone Carter taking an INT back 32 yards for a fourth-quarter TD.
Roethlisberger practiced all week and has been cleared to start.
San Diego has covered in its last two meetings with Pittsburgh, following a 4-0 SU and ATS run by the Steelers in this rivalry. Two months ago at Heinz, Pittsburgh got a field goal in the final minute to post the first 11-10 victory in NFL history, though the Steelers would have covered if a Troy Polamalu fumble-return TD on the game’s last play wasn’t mistakenly overruled by officials. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes.
In regular-season action, San Diego finished second in the league in scoring at 27.4 ppg and put up 349 ypg (11th), including 241.1 passing ypg (seventh). Rivers finished as the NFL’s highest-rated passer, completing 65 percent of his throws for 4,009 yards (fifth in the league) and 34 TDs (tied for first) with just 11 INTs. Tomlinson (1,110 yards, 3.8 ypc, 11 TDs) was 10th in the league in rushing in what was easily the least productive of his eight seasons.
On defense, the Chargers allowed 349.9 ypg (25th), but that only translated into 21.7 ppg for their opponents (15th). Factoring in last week’s minus-2 effort versus the Colts, San Diego is now just plus-2 in turnover margin for the year.
Pittsburgh’s offense was in the back half of the league in the regular season, with per-game averages of 21.7 points (20th), 311.9 total yards (22nd), 105.6 rushing yards (23rd) and 206.3 passing yards (17th). Roethlisberger was the NFL’s 24th-rated QB, competing 59.9 percent of his passes for 3,301 yards, offsetting 17 TD throws with 15 INTs. Parker, limited to 11 games, rushed for 791 yards (3.8 ypc) and five TDs, and WR Hines Ward (81 catches, 1,043 yards, 7 TDs) tied for 14th in receptions and was 15th in receiving yards.
With such a lackluster offense, the Steelers needed a sterling defense, and they had it in the league’s No. 1-ranked unit in points allowed (a meager 13.9 per game), total yards (237.2 per game) and passing yards (156.9), along with the second-best run-stopping squad (80.2 ypg). Despite those impressive numbers, Pittsburgh finished just plus-4 in turnover differential, thanks in most part to Roethlisberger’s miscues.
Despite their middling SU record, the Chargers are on pointspread hot streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 in the playoffs, 10-1-1 as a ‘dog of 3½-10 points, 21-7-3 as a pup of any price, 4-1-1 as a road ‘dog, 9-3-1 against winning teams and 11-5 after a spread-cover.
The Steelers, along with their current 5-1 ATS surge, sport positive pointspread trends of 4-0 in January, 5-0 in the playoffs, 4-1 against winning teams and 22-8 as a home chalk of 3½-10 points. But Pittsburgh also carries negative ATS streaks of 1-6 after putting up more than 30 points and 2-7 after a SU win of more than 14 points.
The under for San Diego is on stretches of 7-1 in January, 5-1 in the postseason, 7-2-1 against AFC foes and 6-2 against winning teams. However, the over is 16-6-2 in the Chargers’ last 24 roadies, and it is on rolls for Pittsburgh of 44-19-2 at Heinz Field, 7-1 in home playoff tilts, 14-2 in January, 10-2 in playoff games, 5-1 with the Steelers as a playoff chalk and 11-4 against the AFC.
Finally, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these squads, with the last three in a row staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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