Stephen Nover
Sunday's Picks 50 Dime - Chicago Bears
There's a tier system in the NFL. The Bears rank mediocre-to-bad. The Lions, though, rank with the Rams as the worst.
The key question is can you profit in this matchup by backing a lackluster road favorite in a flat spot traveling on a short week following their biggest win of the season? That's the case with the Bears off their big overtime victory Monday against the Vikings.
I say you can. The Lions are that bad. They started the season devoid of talent in many areas. Injuries have turned their roster into a team full of retreads and street free agents. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson is their only playmaker.
Detroit doesn't have a starting caliber running back and its quarterback spot is manned by washed-up Duante Culpepper, who the offense doesn't respond to, and not-ready-for-prime-time Drew Stanton. The Bears can handle this woeful offense.
Chicago took care of business when playing its easiest opponents beating the Rams by nine, the Browns by 24 and the Lions by 24.
Jay Cutler received a huge boost of needed confidence with his four-touchdown performance in Monday's 36-30 victory versus Minnesota. He can do a lot of damage against Detroit's defense, which ranks last against the pass.
There are jobs on the line with the Bears. Some may be coaching jobs. So there will be sense of urgency to this matchup for Chicago. It's a short trip from Chicago to Detroit. The Lions have failed to cover in 12 of their last 16 home games.
50 Dime - New England Patriots
These are heady times for the Texans, a team not used to success. Houston is riding a three-game winning streak, four of its players were named to the Pro Bowl, a win gives them its first winning season in franchise history and keeps alive its playoff hopes.
Simply put, it's a huge, huge game for the Texans. The game means little to the Patriots. Thus the lopsided pointspread.
But when have the Texans ever responded well to pressure? The answer is NEVER. The Texans have chalked up a 1-6-1 against the spread mark following a pointspread cover.
Houston is explosive. I'll certainly give them that. Matt Schaub is likely to lead the NFL in passing yards. Andre Johnson is likely to have the most receiving yards in the league. New England, however, has drastically improved its pass defense during the past three games - all victories. The Patriots held the Panthers, Bills and Jaguars to a combined 27 points in their last three games.
Is Bill Belichick going to risk his team's new-found momentum to rest starters? It wouldn't be a shock if some nicked-up starters do sit. That could mean defensive linemen Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren don't play. That will hurt New England's run defense. But the Texans don't run the ball well, ranking second-from-the-bottom. Their featured back these days is rookie Arian Foster.
The key is that Tom Brady is going to play. He could even play the entire game. That's what he said. Even if he didn't, Brian Hoyer isn't a bad backup quarterback. He played the entire game during New England's last preseason game against the Giants. Hoyer played well completing 18-of-25 for 242 yards and one touchdown as the Patriots won 38-27.
Belichick knows how to win. This isn't one of his great teams that he can just turn on a switch and it will play well. He's not going to take unnecessary chances with banged-up players like Wilfork. But, on the other hand, he's not going to go into the playoffs off a bad loss either. He has to keep this team sharp.
It wouldn't shock me if the Patriots won this game straight-up and Gary Kubiak lost his job as Texans coach.
50 Dime - Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are sick of living with the fact they've never had back-to-back winning seasons in their 44-year history. They can end that jinx with a victory today against the Buccaneers.
Because of that, the Falcons are extremely motivated for this matchup even though they are out of playoff contention.
Tampa Bay has won its last two games. The Buccaneers upset a bad Seattle team on the road two weeks ago and then stunned New Orleans with a strong second-half last week after the Saints got complacent with a 17-0 lead.
Let's not start thinking the Buccaneers have become a good team because they haven't. They have lost 15 of their last 18 games. They are 3-15 against the spread during their past 18 games on grass. Their two victories the past two weeks came on artificial turf. The Bucs have failed to cover seven of the last eight times as a home underdog.
Buccaneers' first year head coach Raheem Morris has not received high marks. Tampa Bay ownership probably would jettison him in a second if they could talk Bill Cowher into taking over.
The Buccaneers lost fullback Earnest Graham and defensive lineman Jimmy Wilkerson during their win last week. Wilkerson led all of Tampa Bay's defensive linemen with 66 tackles while being second on the team in sacks with six.
Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman has a promising future, but at this embryonic stage he's very mistake prone as evidenced by a 9-to-16 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
50 Dime - San Diego Chargers
I like the Chargers to cover this small number even though they are going to rest starters having secured the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the AFC.
First off, Philip Rivers and the starters are going to play for at least a couple of series. Norv Turner doesn't want his first-string to be without work for three straight weeks. There's a good possibility the Chargers could build up a double-digit lead before halftime before Turner pulls his starters making San Diego for the first-half a good play, too.
Second, the Chargers will still be intense even with their reserves in. They are riding a lot of momentum with a 10-game winning streak. San Diego is a team that knows how to win. Its players have said this game is important to them regardless of how long the starters play.
Third, San Diego has good backups. Darren Sproles, not LaDainian Tomlinson, is the team's most dangerous running back nowadays. Billy Volek is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. He had a preseason quarterback rating of 131.6. Volek will get to operate against a Washington secondary missing three safeties, including LaRon Landry. That leaves them extremely thin in the secondary. The Redskins also might be without defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth and linebacker Rocky McIntosh.
Fourth, look at this situation. San Diego has had extra time to rest and prepare following a road win 10 days ago at Tennessee. Washington just got done losing and playing poorly in back-to-back home games versus NFC East Division rivals the Giants and Cowboys. Now the Redskins have to somehow regroup and travel to the West Coast for a game that is totally meaningless for them.
How meaningless is this game for Washington? I repeat totally meaningless. Jim Zorn and his staff are out. Redskins owner Daniel Snyder already has interviewed candidates with Mike Shanahan looking like Zorn's successor.
Speaking of Snyder, Chargers coach Norv Turner wouldn't mind sticking it to him. Snyder fired Turner in Washington making him the scapegoat for the team and owner's many shortcomings. Turner will have the Chargers playing hard no matter who is in the lineup.
Even if Washington was up for this game, which I don't see any way it can be, it doesn't have the horses. The Redskins lost another offensive lineman, starting right guard Mike Williams. They have already used 11 offensive linemen this season and five tailbacks. Washington, not San Diego, has no incentive or talent available for this final regular-season game.
50 Dime - Cincinnati Bengals
It's not often you can say the Bengals are a well-coached, good sound fundamental football team. But this year you can make that statement without any laugh track.
The Jets are much like the Bengals: strong defense, conservative game-plan, heavy on the run. The Jets just aren't as good as the Bengals. Yet because the Bengals have clinched their playoff spot and the Jets need to win in order to clinch theirs we have a huge spread.
Taking an underdog with a total of less than 36 usually is a wise investment. That's the case here.
The Bengals have covered nine of the past 10 times they've been an underdog. The underdog is 14-1 in Cincinnati games this season.
The Jets are notorious for not playing well in big games. They are 1-4 against the spread the last five times they've been home chalk.
Just because the Jets have to win doesn't mean they will. True, Marvin Lewis won't be playing his starters the full game. But he has built a prideful team that won't lay down, especially this being the nationally televised Sunday night game. It wouldn't be shocking if the league secretly communicated to the Bengals that they need to play hard the whole way after last week's fiasco with the Colts laying down to the Jets.
The Jets aren't built to cover big pointspread margins. Their rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez has been picked off 20 times despite the offense being scaled way back. Sanchez, a West Coast guy, has never played in Giants Stadium during January.
The forecast for the game is temperatures in the high teens with winds in the 15-to-25 mph range with gusts up to 40 mph and a 20 percent chance of snow. The Bengals have a pair of ballhawk cornerbacks, Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall. They have a combined 12 interceptions.
Carson Palmer is unlikely to play much. The Bengals' backup quarterback is veteran J.T. O'Sullivan, who Mike Martz fawned over at the start of last season when O'Sullivan was San Francisco's starter for a while.
Certainly there's a dropoff from Palmer to O'Sullivan. But this wasn't a vintage Palmer year. He averaged just more than 200 yards passing per game and only had one 300-yard throwing game. The Bengals became heavily dependent on the run. They are deep at running back. Backup Larry Johnson, formerly of the Chiefs, is a good fit for the Bengals offense.
This is going to be a very conservative, defensive-oriented matchup. The Jets would be thrilled to win by a field goal.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-----GL GUYS
Sunday's Picks 50 Dime - Chicago Bears
There's a tier system in the NFL. The Bears rank mediocre-to-bad. The Lions, though, rank with the Rams as the worst.
The key question is can you profit in this matchup by backing a lackluster road favorite in a flat spot traveling on a short week following their biggest win of the season? That's the case with the Bears off their big overtime victory Monday against the Vikings.
I say you can. The Lions are that bad. They started the season devoid of talent in many areas. Injuries have turned their roster into a team full of retreads and street free agents. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson is their only playmaker.
Detroit doesn't have a starting caliber running back and its quarterback spot is manned by washed-up Duante Culpepper, who the offense doesn't respond to, and not-ready-for-prime-time Drew Stanton. The Bears can handle this woeful offense.
Chicago took care of business when playing its easiest opponents beating the Rams by nine, the Browns by 24 and the Lions by 24.
Jay Cutler received a huge boost of needed confidence with his four-touchdown performance in Monday's 36-30 victory versus Minnesota. He can do a lot of damage against Detroit's defense, which ranks last against the pass.
There are jobs on the line with the Bears. Some may be coaching jobs. So there will be sense of urgency to this matchup for Chicago. It's a short trip from Chicago to Detroit. The Lions have failed to cover in 12 of their last 16 home games.
50 Dime - New England Patriots
These are heady times for the Texans, a team not used to success. Houston is riding a three-game winning streak, four of its players were named to the Pro Bowl, a win gives them its first winning season in franchise history and keeps alive its playoff hopes.
Simply put, it's a huge, huge game for the Texans. The game means little to the Patriots. Thus the lopsided pointspread.
But when have the Texans ever responded well to pressure? The answer is NEVER. The Texans have chalked up a 1-6-1 against the spread mark following a pointspread cover.
Houston is explosive. I'll certainly give them that. Matt Schaub is likely to lead the NFL in passing yards. Andre Johnson is likely to have the most receiving yards in the league. New England, however, has drastically improved its pass defense during the past three games - all victories. The Patriots held the Panthers, Bills and Jaguars to a combined 27 points in their last three games.
Is Bill Belichick going to risk his team's new-found momentum to rest starters? It wouldn't be a shock if some nicked-up starters do sit. That could mean defensive linemen Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren don't play. That will hurt New England's run defense. But the Texans don't run the ball well, ranking second-from-the-bottom. Their featured back these days is rookie Arian Foster.
The key is that Tom Brady is going to play. He could even play the entire game. That's what he said. Even if he didn't, Brian Hoyer isn't a bad backup quarterback. He played the entire game during New England's last preseason game against the Giants. Hoyer played well completing 18-of-25 for 242 yards and one touchdown as the Patriots won 38-27.
Belichick knows how to win. This isn't one of his great teams that he can just turn on a switch and it will play well. He's not going to take unnecessary chances with banged-up players like Wilfork. But, on the other hand, he's not going to go into the playoffs off a bad loss either. He has to keep this team sharp.
It wouldn't shock me if the Patriots won this game straight-up and Gary Kubiak lost his job as Texans coach.
50 Dime - Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are sick of living with the fact they've never had back-to-back winning seasons in their 44-year history. They can end that jinx with a victory today against the Buccaneers.
Because of that, the Falcons are extremely motivated for this matchup even though they are out of playoff contention.
Tampa Bay has won its last two games. The Buccaneers upset a bad Seattle team on the road two weeks ago and then stunned New Orleans with a strong second-half last week after the Saints got complacent with a 17-0 lead.
Let's not start thinking the Buccaneers have become a good team because they haven't. They have lost 15 of their last 18 games. They are 3-15 against the spread during their past 18 games on grass. Their two victories the past two weeks came on artificial turf. The Bucs have failed to cover seven of the last eight times as a home underdog.
Buccaneers' first year head coach Raheem Morris has not received high marks. Tampa Bay ownership probably would jettison him in a second if they could talk Bill Cowher into taking over.
The Buccaneers lost fullback Earnest Graham and defensive lineman Jimmy Wilkerson during their win last week. Wilkerson led all of Tampa Bay's defensive linemen with 66 tackles while being second on the team in sacks with six.
Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman has a promising future, but at this embryonic stage he's very mistake prone as evidenced by a 9-to-16 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
50 Dime - San Diego Chargers
I like the Chargers to cover this small number even though they are going to rest starters having secured the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the AFC.
First off, Philip Rivers and the starters are going to play for at least a couple of series. Norv Turner doesn't want his first-string to be without work for three straight weeks. There's a good possibility the Chargers could build up a double-digit lead before halftime before Turner pulls his starters making San Diego for the first-half a good play, too.
Second, the Chargers will still be intense even with their reserves in. They are riding a lot of momentum with a 10-game winning streak. San Diego is a team that knows how to win. Its players have said this game is important to them regardless of how long the starters play.
Third, San Diego has good backups. Darren Sproles, not LaDainian Tomlinson, is the team's most dangerous running back nowadays. Billy Volek is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. He had a preseason quarterback rating of 131.6. Volek will get to operate against a Washington secondary missing three safeties, including LaRon Landry. That leaves them extremely thin in the secondary. The Redskins also might be without defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth and linebacker Rocky McIntosh.
Fourth, look at this situation. San Diego has had extra time to rest and prepare following a road win 10 days ago at Tennessee. Washington just got done losing and playing poorly in back-to-back home games versus NFC East Division rivals the Giants and Cowboys. Now the Redskins have to somehow regroup and travel to the West Coast for a game that is totally meaningless for them.
How meaningless is this game for Washington? I repeat totally meaningless. Jim Zorn and his staff are out. Redskins owner Daniel Snyder already has interviewed candidates with Mike Shanahan looking like Zorn's successor.
Speaking of Snyder, Chargers coach Norv Turner wouldn't mind sticking it to him. Snyder fired Turner in Washington making him the scapegoat for the team and owner's many shortcomings. Turner will have the Chargers playing hard no matter who is in the lineup.
Even if Washington was up for this game, which I don't see any way it can be, it doesn't have the horses. The Redskins lost another offensive lineman, starting right guard Mike Williams. They have already used 11 offensive linemen this season and five tailbacks. Washington, not San Diego, has no incentive or talent available for this final regular-season game.
50 Dime - Cincinnati Bengals
It's not often you can say the Bengals are a well-coached, good sound fundamental football team. But this year you can make that statement without any laugh track.
The Jets are much like the Bengals: strong defense, conservative game-plan, heavy on the run. The Jets just aren't as good as the Bengals. Yet because the Bengals have clinched their playoff spot and the Jets need to win in order to clinch theirs we have a huge spread.
Taking an underdog with a total of less than 36 usually is a wise investment. That's the case here.
The Bengals have covered nine of the past 10 times they've been an underdog. The underdog is 14-1 in Cincinnati games this season.
The Jets are notorious for not playing well in big games. They are 1-4 against the spread the last five times they've been home chalk.
Just because the Jets have to win doesn't mean they will. True, Marvin Lewis won't be playing his starters the full game. But he has built a prideful team that won't lay down, especially this being the nationally televised Sunday night game. It wouldn't be shocking if the league secretly communicated to the Bengals that they need to play hard the whole way after last week's fiasco with the Colts laying down to the Jets.
The Jets aren't built to cover big pointspread margins. Their rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez has been picked off 20 times despite the offense being scaled way back. Sanchez, a West Coast guy, has never played in Giants Stadium during January.
The forecast for the game is temperatures in the high teens with winds in the 15-to-25 mph range with gusts up to 40 mph and a 20 percent chance of snow. The Bengals have a pair of ballhawk cornerbacks, Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall. They have a combined 12 interceptions.
Carson Palmer is unlikely to play much. The Bengals' backup quarterback is veteran J.T. O'Sullivan, who Mike Martz fawned over at the start of last season when O'Sullivan was San Francisco's starter for a while.
Certainly there's a dropoff from Palmer to O'Sullivan. But this wasn't a vintage Palmer year. He averaged just more than 200 yards passing per game and only had one 300-yard throwing game. The Bengals became heavily dependent on the run. They are deep at running back. Backup Larry Johnson, formerly of the Chiefs, is a good fit for the Bengals offense.
This is going to be a very conservative, defensive-oriented matchup. The Jets would be thrilled to win by a field goal.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-----GL GUYS
Dominic Fazzini
Sunday's winners 50 Dime -- Falcons (minus points vs. BUCCANEERS)
FALCONS
While neither of these teams is headed for the playoffs, I like the situation Atlanta is in today. The Falcons are in a position to claim back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in franchise history, and I think the players are really motivated to make that happen.
Plus, the return of quarterback Matt Ryan seems to have sparked the Falcons, who have won their last two games with him in the lineup and scored 31 points last week against Buffalo.
Tampa Bay has shown improvement over the last couple of weeks, and even won in overtime at New Orleans last week, but I think that victory essentially was its Super Bowl, and I expect a letdown today in the season finale.
Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman has shown promise as a rookie, but he has thrown 14 interceptions in his last six games, with just five TD passes.
Plus, the Buccaneers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games, 1-7 ATS as a home underdog and 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games on grass. Atlanta, meanwhile, is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite, and 4-1 ATS as a road favorite of up to three points. Take the Falcons to win by a touchdown today.
Atlanta has covered the spread in three straight games
15 Dime -- Titans (minus points vs. SEAHAWKS)
TITANS
The focus today is going to be on Tennessee star Chris Johnson and his pursuit of some magical rushing numbers, and I think that is going to motivate the Titans to come up with a big effort today.
Johnson is 128 yards away from becoming the sixth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 in a season, and he also has an outside shot at Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record, needing 234 yards to reach the former Rams star's mark of 2,105.
The Titans are also motivated to win today to end the season at 8-8, which doesn't sound like much, but after starting the season 0-6, finishing at .500 would be quite a feat. Tennessee also has had more than a week to prepare for this game, having been off since its loss to San Diego on Christmas night.
Seattle has regressed into one of the worst teams in the league. It has lost by a combined total of 107-24 the past three weeks, and were embarassed 48-10 last week at Green Bay.
The Seahawks don't have any spark on offense or defense, and QB Matt Hasselbeck has been beaten up, and has thrown eight interceptions to go with a lost fumble over the past two games.
The Titans are 7-3 ATS as a road favorite, and Seattle is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games overall, including an 0-3 streak. The Seahawks also are 1-9 ATS as an underdog. Take Tennessee to control both sides of the ball today and roll to an easy victory.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-------GL GUYS
Sunday's winners 50 Dime -- Falcons (minus points vs. BUCCANEERS)
FALCONS
While neither of these teams is headed for the playoffs, I like the situation Atlanta is in today. The Falcons are in a position to claim back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in franchise history, and I think the players are really motivated to make that happen.
Plus, the return of quarterback Matt Ryan seems to have sparked the Falcons, who have won their last two games with him in the lineup and scored 31 points last week against Buffalo.
Tampa Bay has shown improvement over the last couple of weeks, and even won in overtime at New Orleans last week, but I think that victory essentially was its Super Bowl, and I expect a letdown today in the season finale.
Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman has shown promise as a rookie, but he has thrown 14 interceptions in his last six games, with just five TD passes.
Plus, the Buccaneers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games, 1-7 ATS as a home underdog and 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games on grass. Atlanta, meanwhile, is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite, and 4-1 ATS as a road favorite of up to three points. Take the Falcons to win by a touchdown today.
Atlanta has covered the spread in three straight games
15 Dime -- Titans (minus points vs. SEAHAWKS)
TITANS
The focus today is going to be on Tennessee star Chris Johnson and his pursuit of some magical rushing numbers, and I think that is going to motivate the Titans to come up with a big effort today.
Johnson is 128 yards away from becoming the sixth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 in a season, and he also has an outside shot at Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record, needing 234 yards to reach the former Rams star's mark of 2,105.
The Titans are also motivated to win today to end the season at 8-8, which doesn't sound like much, but after starting the season 0-6, finishing at .500 would be quite a feat. Tennessee also has had more than a week to prepare for this game, having been off since its loss to San Diego on Christmas night.
Seattle has regressed into one of the worst teams in the league. It has lost by a combined total of 107-24 the past three weeks, and were embarassed 48-10 last week at Green Bay.
The Seahawks don't have any spark on offense or defense, and QB Matt Hasselbeck has been beaten up, and has thrown eight interceptions to go with a lost fumble over the past two games.
The Titans are 7-3 ATS as a road favorite, and Seattle is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games overall, including an 0-3 streak. The Seahawks also are 1-9 ATS as an underdog. Take Tennessee to control both sides of the ball today and roll to an easy victory.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-------GL GUYS
HENTAI SPORTS
Game : Washington Redskins at San Diego Chargers (NFL) 04:15pm EST
Prediction : San Diego Chargers -3.5
Analysis : To sit or not to sit?!? That is the question. With a first round bye, the Charger’s will sit their starters once the game is in hand. San Diego won’t have a playoff game for a few weeks and will need to keep their starters sharp. This is a squad that has won 10 straight, covering 7 of those 10 games. HC Norv Turner likes to win and stay competitive. The Redskin’s did have a good defense but has given up an average of 27 PPG their L5 outings, including an embarrassing loss to the Giant’s 2 weeks ago and a blank to the Cowboy’s last week. HC Jim Zorn is all but gone. They didn’t aspire to be great all season long, why start now?. San Diego is 4-1 ATS their L5 games played in January and 21-7 ATS their L28 as a home favorite of 3 1/2 – 10 points. HC Norv Turner wants the win.
Game : Washington Redskins at San Diego Chargers (NFL) 04:15pm EST
Prediction : San Diego Chargers -3.5
Analysis : To sit or not to sit?!? That is the question. With a first round bye, the Charger’s will sit their starters once the game is in hand. San Diego won’t have a playoff game for a few weeks and will need to keep their starters sharp. This is a squad that has won 10 straight, covering 7 of those 10 games. HC Norv Turner likes to win and stay competitive. The Redskin’s did have a good defense but has given up an average of 27 PPG their L5 outings, including an embarrassing loss to the Giant’s 2 weeks ago and a blank to the Cowboy’s last week. HC Jim Zorn is all but gone. They didn’t aspire to be great all season long, why start now?. San Diego is 4-1 ATS their L5 games played in January and 21-7 ATS their L28 as a home favorite of 3 1/2 – 10 points. HC Norv Turner wants the win.
TULEY THE TOUT
Jaguars +2 vs. Browns...grab this ASAP as I think it can only go down
Patriots +8 vs. Texans...haven't bet yet, but thinking Pats will try to stay sharp
Bengals +10 vs. Jets...on the fence with this one, too
Chiefs +13 vs. Broncos...Denver needs win, but Chiefs keep playing hard
Raiders +10.5 vs. Ravens...playing Oakland with Gradkowski or Frye
Jaguars +2 vs. Browns...grab this ASAP as I think it can only go down
Patriots +8 vs. Texans...haven't bet yet, but thinking Pats will try to stay sharp
Bengals +10 vs. Jets...on the fence with this one, too
Chiefs +13 vs. Broncos...Denver needs win, but Chiefs keep playing hard
Raiders +10.5 vs. Ravens...playing Oakland with Gradkowski or Frye
SPORTS WAGERS
San Antonio –2 over TORONTO
Fact is, the Raps can’t beat good teams and that’s been proven over and over and over again this year. Toronto has won nine of its last 14 but a close looks shows them beating Charlotte, Detroit twice, New Orleans, New Jersey, Houston, Minnesota, Chicago and Washington. If you throw in the putrid Pacers, that makes up the Raps last 10 wins. Of all those teams, only the Rockets are above .500 and when they lost to Toronto it was its sixth road game in seven starts. The Raps played a depleted Boston team last night and lost by seven, however, that score is flattering, as they were down 9-12 points the whole way. The Raps recently lost to Orlando by 19, to Miami by 20, to Atlanta by 22, to Milwaukee by also 22 and the list of blowouts to good teams goes on and on and on. The Spurs have a huge edge in the coaching department and there’s just no way that Greg Popovich is going to let an unproven coach on a bad team beat him. Raps get ruined by every good team they play and there’s nothing to suggest this one will be any different. Play: San Antonio –2 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
ILLINOIS ST./S. Illinois OVER 142
What we have hear is a case of two prolific offenses meeting for the first time this season and that is definitely to this wagers advantage. Firstly, college basketball fans need to be aware of Illinois St. as a potential sleeper tournament team, as they spot a 10-3 record thus far this season after posting 24 wins last year. They rank in the top 40 in college basketball in offensive efficiency and dominate the offensive glass, collecting 37.8% of missed field goals while making 52.8% of their inside shots. Southern Illinois meanwhile sports a 9-2 record but shows a worrying defensive statistic for this particular matchup, as they allow opponents to shoot 50.7% on two-point field goals, a weakness Illinois State will certainly take advantage off. The other great advantage to making this wager is that both teams rank in the top 100 in free throw percentage, with Illinois State checking in at 71.8% and Southern Illinois at 75.6%. The combination of potent offenses facing each other for the first time this season and both teams shooting relatively well from the charity stripe makes this an over play. The books are still making some mistakes with regards to the mid-major conference totals and this is one of them. If these schools happened to have “Syracuse” and “Kansas” on the front of their jerseys this number would be about 10 points higher but luckily for us that isn’t the case yet. Play: Illinois St./Southern Illinois over 142 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
San Antonio –2 over TORONTO
Fact is, the Raps can’t beat good teams and that’s been proven over and over and over again this year. Toronto has won nine of its last 14 but a close looks shows them beating Charlotte, Detroit twice, New Orleans, New Jersey, Houston, Minnesota, Chicago and Washington. If you throw in the putrid Pacers, that makes up the Raps last 10 wins. Of all those teams, only the Rockets are above .500 and when they lost to Toronto it was its sixth road game in seven starts. The Raps played a depleted Boston team last night and lost by seven, however, that score is flattering, as they were down 9-12 points the whole way. The Raps recently lost to Orlando by 19, to Miami by 20, to Atlanta by 22, to Milwaukee by also 22 and the list of blowouts to good teams goes on and on and on. The Spurs have a huge edge in the coaching department and there’s just no way that Greg Popovich is going to let an unproven coach on a bad team beat him. Raps get ruined by every good team they play and there’s nothing to suggest this one will be any different. Play: San Antonio –2 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
ILLINOIS ST./S. Illinois OVER 142
What we have hear is a case of two prolific offenses meeting for the first time this season and that is definitely to this wagers advantage. Firstly, college basketball fans need to be aware of Illinois St. as a potential sleeper tournament team, as they spot a 10-3 record thus far this season after posting 24 wins last year. They rank in the top 40 in college basketball in offensive efficiency and dominate the offensive glass, collecting 37.8% of missed field goals while making 52.8% of their inside shots. Southern Illinois meanwhile sports a 9-2 record but shows a worrying defensive statistic for this particular matchup, as they allow opponents to shoot 50.7% on two-point field goals, a weakness Illinois State will certainly take advantage off. The other great advantage to making this wager is that both teams rank in the top 100 in free throw percentage, with Illinois State checking in at 71.8% and Southern Illinois at 75.6%. The combination of potent offenses facing each other for the first time this season and both teams shooting relatively well from the charity stripe makes this an over play. The books are still making some mistakes with regards to the mid-major conference totals and this is one of them. If these schools happened to have “Syracuse” and “Kansas” on the front of their jerseys this number would be about 10 points higher but luckily for us that isn’t the case yet. Play: Illinois St./Southern Illinois over 142 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
