SPORTS ADVISORS
Indianapolis (14-1, 10-5 ATS) at Buffalo (5-10, 7-8 ATS)
The Colts, coming off their first loss of the season, wrap up regular-season play with a trip to Ralph Wilson Stadium to face the Bills in one of several meaningless Week 17 contests.
Indianapolis coach Jim Caldwell controverSIAlly pulled QB Peyton Manning and other top starters while holding a 15-10 lead in the third quarter of last week’s home game against the Jets. The Colts went on to lose 29-15 as a three-point favorite. Along with halting their 23-game regular-season win streak, the loss also snapped the Colts’ 5-0 ATS surge. Indy has nothing to play for this week, having already secured home-field advantage for the AFC playoffs.
Buffalo has dropped three of its last four games SU and ATS, including Sunday’s 31-3 setback as a nine-point underdog at Atlanta. The Bills have scored 16 points or less in all four games, and they are averaging just 15.2 ppg for the season (29th), along with just 265.3 ypg (30th). However, they’re big favorites this week, with the Colts unlikely to use their first-stringers for long, if at all.
Indianapolis is 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS this decade against Buffalo, most recently winning 17-12 in November 2006, but failing to cash as a hefty 12-point home chalk. The favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five contests.
The Colts are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a SU loss, but they are otherwise riding positive ATS streaks of 5-1-1 overall, 6-0 against losing teams and 18-7-1 on the highway. Conversely, the Bills are on ATS skids of 0-4 in January, 1-5 in regular-season finales and 4-11 against winning teams.
The over is on runs for Indianapolis of 4-1 overall and 5-2 against losing teams, but the under for the Colts is on stretches of 9-2 in Week 17 and 6-2 in January. The under for Buffalo is on rolls of 4-0 overall, 6-0 against winning teams, 5-1 at home and 4-1 against AFC foes. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in six of the last eight meetings overall and is on a 4-0 run in Buffalo.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
New Orleans (13-2, 8-7 ATS) at Carolina (7-8, 8-7 ATS)
The suddenly struggling Saints cap the regular season with a stern road test against the revitalized Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.
New Orleans followed its home loss to Dallas two weeks ago with a stunning 20-17 overtime defeat to lowly Tampa Bay as a 14-point home chalk last week. Despite that, with Minnesota losing on Monday night at Chicago, the Saints have clinched home field throughout the NFC playoffs and therefore have nothing on the line against the Panthers. In fact, coach Sean Payton said QB Drew Brees will sit this game out, leaving veteran backup Mark Brunell to run the offense.
Carolina blasted the Giants right out of the NFC postseason picture with a 41-9 road bashing Sunday, marking the second straight week the Panthers have won and cashed as a nine-point underdog. Two weeks ago, they ripped the Vikings 26-7 at home, and they’ve now cashed in four straight games (3-1 SU). QB Matt Moore has six TDs and no INTs the past two games, totally outplaying Brett Favre and Eli Manning, respectively, and his efforts could mark the end of the injured Jake Delhomme’s Carolina career.
Carolina is on a 5-1 ATS roll in this NFC South rivalry (4-2 SU), cashing in each of the last three meetings. Last month, New Orleans won 30-20, but the Panthers covered as a 12½-point road ‘dog. In fact, the road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 clashes, with New Orleans on a 6-1 ATS streak in Charlotte. The one loss came in a 30-7 blowout last season as a three-point ‘dog.
The Saints are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 roadies and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 following a SU setback, but they are mired in ATS ruts of 0-4 overall, 0-4 in Week 17, 0-6 in January, 1-5 in division play and 1-4 against losing teams. On the flip side, the Panthers are on pointspread rolls of 4-0 overall, 4-0 in season finales, 6-0 against winning teams, 7-0 against the NFC and 4-0 inside the division.
The over has hit in New Orleans’ last four regular-season finales and is on runs for Carolina of 6-2 in the NFC South and 9-4 in January. However, the under is on streaks for the Saints of 5-1 overall, 4-0 in division action and 4-0 after a non-cover, and the Panthers are on “under” surges of 5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-1 after a SU win and 6-2 coming off an ATS win. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is on tears of 8-2 overall and 6-0 at Bank of America Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA and UNDER
Jacksonville (7-8, 5-10 ATS) at Cleveland (4-11, 9-6 ATS)
The Jaguars, who amazingly still have some long-shot scenarios in which they’d make the playoffs, head to the chill of Cleveland Municipal Stadium to take on the surging Browns.
Jacksonville got hammered at New England 35-7 last week catching 9½ points for its third consecutive SU and ATS loss, putting it all but on the brink of postseason elimination. RB Maurice Jones-Drew (1,309 rushing yards, 15 TDs) is the league’s fifth-leading rusher and is second in rushing TDs, but the Jags have little more than that, averaging just 18.2 ppg (23rd). QB David Garrard is questionable for this contest.
Cleveland dropped Oakland 23-9 as a three-point home chalk Sunday and has now surprisingly strung together three consecutive SU wins to go with six straight spread-covers. Even with the recent success, the Browns are still dead last in total offense (257.5 ypg) and 30th in scoring (14.8 ppg), and they’re allowing a league-worst 393.4 ypg.
Cleveland sprung a 23-17 road upset on Jacksonville in October 2008 as a seven-point pup, and these teams have alternated SU and ATS victories over the last six clashes, with the road team winning and cashing five straight times. The underdog is on a 4-1 ATS run in this rivalry, and the SU winner has covered in seven consecutive meetings.
The Jaguars are on a bundle of spread-covering slides, including 8-20 overall, 1-6 against losing teams, 2-6 after a non-cover, 1-4 after a SU loss, 1-4 on the road and 2-5 as a pup. The Browns, meanwhile, are in a 1-4 ATS rut as a home chalk – with last week’s effort marking the lone win – but along with their current 6-0 ATS tear, they sport positive pointspread streaks of 5-0 against the AFC, 4-0 against losing teams, 10-4 following a SU win and 5-2 in regular-season finales.
Jacksonville is on “under” sprees of 5-1 overall, 8-2 on the highway, 9-2 as a road pup and 4-1 against losing teams. Similarly, Cleveland is on “under” runs of 6-0-1 in Week 17, 9-2 against losing teams, 4-1 at home, 8-2 as a chalk and 9-4 in conference action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Chicago (6-9, 5-10 ATS) at Detroit (2-13, 4-9-2 ATS)
Two teams playing out the string get together when the Bears resume their NFC North rivalry with the Lions at Ford Field.
Chicago upset Minnesota 36-30 in overtime as a nine-point home pup Monday night, halting a season-killing 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS freefall, as QB Jay Cutler finally had his TD passes (4) outnumber his INTs (1). Detroit, meanwhile, lost to San Francisco 20-6 Sunday but got the push as a 14-point road ‘dog for its fifth consecutive loss (2-2-1 ATS). Dating to the middle of the 2007 season, the Lions are an abysmal 3-36 SU and 12-25-2 ATS.
Chicago has won three in a row (2-1 ATS) against Detroit, including a 48-24 bashing as a 9½-point home chalk on Oct. 4. However, the underdog is still 8-3-1 ATS in the last 11 clashes between these longtime rivals.
Despite last week’s stunning upset, the Bears are on a myriad of ATS skids, including 1-7 overall, 0-5 in roadies, 1-7 against the NFC, 1-6 in Week 17 and 2-7 within the division. The Lions have cashed in six of their last eight season-enders, but they are on ATS declines of 2-6-2 overall, 0-4-1 in the NFC North, 4-12 at Ford Field and 4-9 as a home underdog.
The over has hit in Chicago’s last seven January starts, but the under of the Bears is on runs of 6-1 overall, 5-1 against the NFC, 4-1 on the road and 7-2 against losing teams. The under for Detroit is on upturns of 4-1 in the division, 4-1 in January and 5-2 with the squad a home pup, but the Lions are on “over” streaks of 4-0 in Week 17 and 9-3 against losing teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings, but the under is 5-2-1 in the last eight matchups in Detroit.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO
New England (10-5, 8-7 ATS) at Houston (8-7, 7-7-1 ATS)
The Texans, one of a bundle of AFC teams clinging to wild-card playoff hopes this weekend, return to Reliant Stadium after a two-game road swing to take on the Patriots, who have already clinched the AFC East.
Houston, which needs to win and get a lot of help to reach the postseason for the first time ever, dropped Miami 27-20 last week as a one-point road pup for its third consecutive SU win (2-1 ATS), which followed a four-game slide (1-3 ATS). The Texans are thriving on the arm of QB Matt Schaub, who leads the NFL’s No. 2 passing attack (290.6 ypg). A victory today would give Houston its first winning season.
New England ripped Jacksonville 35-7 Sunday for its third straight victory as well, easily covering as a 9½-point home chalk. However, the Patriots have little to play for this week, as they will take either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the playoffs. They are expected to rest their starters, including QB Tom Brady, and the Texans are a heavy favorite.
These squads have met just twice, with New England going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS. Most recently, the Pats rolled 40-7 as a 13-point home favorite in December 2006. Prior to that, Houston lost 23-20 at home in November 2003, but covered as a 5½-point pup.
The Texans are on a 1-6-1 ATS purge following a spread-cover, but they are on ATS runs of 5-2-1 against winning teams and 3-1-1 after a SU win. The Patriots have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 regular-season finales, but they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five starts as a road ‘dog.
The under carries the day for both these teams. Houston is on “under” tears of 15-5-1 overall, 5-0 with the Texans favored, 6-1-1 against AFC foes and 10-2 after a spread-cover, though Gary Kubiak’s troops are on a 20-8 “over” surge against winning teams. For New England, the under is on streaks of 5-0-1 overall, 7-1 on the road, 6-1 after a SU win and 5-0 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and UNDER
Pittsburgh (8-7, 4-10-1 ATS) at Miami (7-8, 8-7 ATS)
The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers, who must win and get some help to reach the playoffs, travel to LandShark Stadium for a clash with the Dolphins, who also still harbor very slim playoff hopes.
Pittsburgh edged Baltimore 23-20 to get the push as a three-point home chalk for its second consecutive SU win, following a five-game slide. The Steelers have cashed just once in their last seven games (1-5-1 ATS). Pittsburgh fields the No. 5 total defense (305.5 ypg), while allowing 20 ppg (tied for 12th), while the offense averages 369.2 ypg (ninth) and outscores opponents by less than a field goal per game (22.5 ppg, tied for 14th).
Miami dramatically hindered its playoff prospects last week, falling behind Houston 27-0 in the second quarter and having its rally fall short in a 27-20 loss as a one-point home favorite. It was the Dolphins’ second straight loss and ended a three-game ATS uptick. Miami has been hurt by a minus-7 turnover margin and a defense giving up 24 ppg, both rating 25th, but the running game has been a big positive, ranking fourth at 142.1 ypg despite losing RB Ronnie Brown to a season-ending injury several weeks ago.
Pittsburgh has won three in a row in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), including a 3-0 yawner as an overwhelming 16-point home chalk in a game played in a quagmire in November 2007. The SU winner is 7-1 ATS in the last eight contests.
The Steelers have covered in their last six January games, but they are on ATS dips of 0-3-1 overall, 0-6 against losing teams, 0-5-1 laying points, 2-7 on the road and 0-7 as a road chalk. The Dolphins are just 15-38-1 ATS in their last 54 at Land Shark, though they carry positive ATS streaks of 6-0 as a ‘dog, 4-0 after a spread-cover, 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1 in Week 17 and 7-2 in conference action.
Pittsburgh is on “over” rolls of 4-1-1 overall, 4-1 against losing teams, 17-5 in January and 7-3 in Week 17, and the over for Miami is on stretches of 8-1 in season finales and 5-1-1 at home. But the under is on a 3-0-1 run for the Steelers following a SU win and is 4-1 in the Dolphins’ last five as a pup. Plus, in this rivalry, the under is on a 4-1-1 surge and is 3-0-1 in the last four Miami meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI
N.Y. Giants (8-7, 6-9 ATS) at Minnesota (11-4, 8-6-1 ATS)
The Vikings, fighting for the No. 2 seed and a first-round playoff bye, face the Giants, who fell apart over the last 10 games and are no longer in playoff contention as they travel to the Metrodome.
Minnesota has dropped two in a row SU and ATS, as a nine-point road favorite in both cases. Following a 26-7 blowout loss at Carolina, the Vikes trailed Chicago 23-6 Monday night, rallied to force overtime, then lost 36-30 when an Adrian Peterson fumble led to Jay Cutler’s fourth TD pass of the game. Three weeks ago, Minnesota sported a top-10 scoring defense, allowing just 18.7 ppg. After giving up 62 points the past two weeks, the Vikings have dropped to 14th at 20.3 ppg.
Still, the Brett Favre-led offense is among the league’s best, averaging 28.4 ppg (fifth) and 372.5 ypg (eighth). Also, Minnesota is a perfect 7-0 in the dome this season (4-2-1 ATS), but it needs a victory and an Eagles loss at Dallas to secure the No. 2 seed.
New York’s playoff hopes were shot down in a humiliating 41-9 loss to Carolina as a nine-point home favorite in its last game at Giants Stadium, as the Giants and Jets will move next door to a new stadium next season. New York started the season 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS), but they haven’t put together back-to-back wins since then. After the hot start, the Giants dumped four in a row SU and ATS, then alternated SU wins and losses over their last six games (2-4 ATS).
These teams have met nine times in the past 10 years, with Minnesota going 5-4 SU (4-5 ATS). The Vikings won the last three in a row (2-1 ATS) after a three-game SU and ATS run by New York, and the SU winner is on an 8-1 ATS tear. Most recently, Minnesota eked out a 20-19 home win, but New York cashed as a seven-point road pup in last year’s regular-season finale.
Furthermore, in this rivalry, the Giants are on a 4-0 ATS run at the Metrodome, the underdog has cashed five straight times, and the road team is on a 6-0 ATS roll.
The Vikings are on a modest 3-0-1 ATS run at home, and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a SU loss, but they shoulder negative pointspread streaks of 1-8-1 in Week 17, 2-5 in January and 3-7 against winning teams. The Giants are on ATS plunges of 2-8 overall, 1-7 against winning teams and 2-5-1 following either a SU or an ATS setback. However, they are on ATS sprees of 20-6 on the highway, 10-2 as a road underdog, 5-0 in Week 17 and 4-1 in January.
The over for New York is on surges of 4-0 overall, 6-0 against the NFC, 4-0 with the Giants a ‘dog and 5-1 in regular-season finales, though the under has hit in five of the Giants’ last six January outings. The under for Minnesota is on several upswings, including 6-1 overall, 4-0 at home (all as a chalk), 6-1-1 in January, 6-1 with the Vikes favored, 5-1 within the NFC and 7-3-1 in Week 17.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
San Francisco (7-8, 8-4-3 ATS) at St. Louis (1-14, 7-8 ATS)
The 49ers have nothing to play for other than avoiding a losing season when they travel to the Edward Jones Dome to take on the hapless Rams.
San Francisco cashed in its first four games while going 3-1 SU, but despite a pair of wins over the defending NFC champion Cardinals this year, the Niners won’t make the playoffs. They have alternated SU wins and losses over their last eight games (3-3-2 ATS), beating Detroit 20-6 last week and pushing as a 14-point home chalk.
St. Louis fell to Arizona 31-10 as an overwhelming 16-point road pup Sunday for its seventh straight loss (4-3 ATS), and the Rams are a meager 1-24 SU (11-14 ATS) in their last 25 games.
San Francisco has won the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-1 ATS) and is 8-2 ATS (7-3 SU) in the last 10 clashes. The Niners are 4-1-1 ATS on their last six visits to St. Louis, but the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 contests between these two.
The 49ers are on positive ATS stretches of 11-5-4 overall, 5-0-3 after a non-cover and 4-1 in the NFC West, though they’re also in ATS ruts of 0-6-1 as a road chalk and 2-6-1 against losing teams. Similarly, the Rams are a mixed bag at the betting window, with ATS upticks of 4-0 after a non-cover and 4-1 in Week 17, and ATS downfalls of 9-19 at home, 7-20 in NFC West action and 14-29 following a SU loss.
The over is 5-2 in St. Louis’ last seven home games and 6-1 in its last seven Week 17 starts, but the under is on a 6-1-1 run for the Rams in division play. Furthermore, the under for San Fran is on rolls of 5-0 overall, 5-0 with the Niners a road chalk, 6-0 in the NFC West, 4-1 against losing teams and 7-3 on the highway. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in six of the last seven meetings overall and four of the last five in St. Louis.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Atlanta (8-7, 10-5 ATS) at Tampa Bay (3-12, 6-9 ATS)
Two more teams playing for nothing but pride get together when the Buccaneers play host to the Falcons at Raymond James Stadium.
Tampa Bay pulled off one of the season’s biggest upsets Sunday, shocking New Orleans 20-17 in overtime as a 14-point road ‘dog to win and cover for the second straight week. Prior to those two wins, the Bucs were just 1-12 SU and 4-9 ATS.
Atlanta, looking for back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in team history, ripped Buffalo 31-3 last week as a nine-point home chalk and has now won two in a row SU and three in a row ATS. But the Falcons will miss the postseason after getting in as a wild card last year.
Tampa Bay is on a 5-0 ATS spree (3-2 SU) in this NFC South rivalry, though Atlanta earned SU wins in the last two meetings, including a 20-17 home victory laying 12 points on Nov. 29. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups.
Despite their efforts the past two weeks, the Buccaneers are on ATS slides of 1-9 at home, 1-7 as a home ‘dog, 1-6 catching three points or less, 1-5 in regular-season finales and 2-5 after a spread-cover. The Falcons are on ATS runs of 5-2 as a chalk and 4-1 giving three points or less on the road, but they’ve gone just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 January games.
The under has hit in five of the last seven meetings in this rivalry, and Tampa Bay is on “under” rolls of 6-0 overall, 5-0 in the conference, 4-0 inside the division, 6-0 with the Bucs getting points and 10-3 against winning teams. Likewise, Atlanta is on “under” surges of 5-0 overall, 6-1 as a road chalk and 35-17-2 following a SU win, but the Falcons also sport “over” streaks of 5-1 in roadies and 9-4 against NFC opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
Philadelphia (11-4, 9-6 ATS) at Dallas (10-5, 8-7 ATS)
The Eagles look to wrap up the NFC East and the No. 2 seed when they travel to the Lone Star State to battle the Cowboys, who can also still win the division and possibly get the No. 2 seed, as well.
Philadelphia has peeled off six consecutive victories (4-2 ATS), holding off Denver on Sunday for a 30-27 home decision, though it failed to cash as a seven-point chalk. The Eagles have had no problem scoring during their current tear, putting up 24 points or more in all six games, including 30 or more three times. Philly is averaging 28.6 ppg for the season (third), aided greatly by a sterling plus-15 turnover margin (second).
Dallas dropped its first two games this month, continuing a trend of poor Decembers, but has since bounced back with a pair of road victories. One week after upsetting previously unbeaten New Orleans, the Pokes topped Washington 17-0 as a seven-point road favorite Sunday night. Dallas’ offense is averaging 394.4 ypg (third), but is more middle-of-the-pack in scoring at 22.5 ppg (tied for 14th).
The winner of this contest clinches the NFC East title, and Philadelphia will get the first-round playoff bye with a victory. Dallas needs a win and losses by Minnesota and Arizona to clinch the No. 2 seed.
These division rivals have split SU wins over the past six meetings, with Philadelphia going 4-2 ATS in that stretch, though Dallas notched a 20-16 road win as a three-point pup on Nov. 8, ending a 3-0 ATS surge by the Eagles. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes, Philly is 4-1 ATS on its last five trips to the Big D, and the underdog is on an 8-2 ATS roll.
The Eagles have failed to cover in four of their last five Week 17 starts, but they are otherwise on pointspread tears of 7-1 after an ATS loss, 4-1 on the road, 20-8 in conference play, 5-2 inside the division and 38-18-2 as an underdog. The Cowboys are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 NFC outings and 5-2 ATS in their last seven following a SU win, but they also shoulder negative ATS streaks of 0-6 in Week 17, 1-6 in January and 4-11 in the NFC East.
Philadelphia is on a handful of “over” sprees, including 11-5 overall, 4-1 in division action, 22-6 getting points, 7-2 after an ATS setback and 6-2 against winning teams. On the flip side, Dallas is on “under” stretches of 7-1 overall, 5-1 within the NFC, 5-1 laying points and 4-1 following a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Green Bay (10-5, 10-4-1 ATS) at Arizona (10-5, 9-6 ATS)
The defending Super Bowl champion Cardinals, currently the No. 4 seed as NFC West champs but still with an outside chance to get to No. 2, take on the wild-card-bound Packers at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Arizona thumped St. Louis 31-10 as a hefty 16-point home chalk Sunday, winning for the second consecutive week while halting a two-game ATS hiccup. The Cardinals are 10th in the league in scoring, at 24.5 ppg, and they had just one turnover while forcing four against the Rams after committing a whopping 10 turnovers in their previous two games. Arizona is also allowing just 19.5 ppg (10th).
Green Bay is among the league’s hottest teams, having won six of its last seven, with the only loss a 37-36 setback as a 2½-point pup at Pittsburgh two weeks ago, a game the Steelers won on the final play of the game. Last week, the Packers rolled Seattle 48-10 as a heavy 13½-point home chalk to cover for the fifth straight time. Green Bay is averaging 381.3 ypg and 28.5 ppg, both fourth in the league, and the Pack have a whopping plus-22 turnover margin, tops in the league by seven.
Despite their current hot streak, the Packers will get either the fifth or sixth seed for the NFC playoffs.
These clubs have had four meaningful meetings this decade, with Green Bay going 3-1 SU and ATS, including a 31-14 victory as a four-point home favorite in October 2006. The SU winner covered in all four contests.
The Cardinals are on spread-covering streaks of 14-6 overall, 6-0 in regular-season finales, 6-0 in January, 7-1 against winning teams, 4-1 at home and 9-4 following a SU win. Likewise, the Packers are on ATS rolls of 6-0-1 overall, 4-0-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 4-1-1 in Week 17, 19-7-1 on the highway, 7-2 as an underdog and 11-4-1 as a road pup.
The under for Arizona is on stretches of 5-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 6-2 after a spread-cover, 5-2 at home and 4-1 in NFC play, though the over is 19-7 in the Cards’ last 26 games against winning teams. The over for Green Bay is on surges of 13-6-1 in roadies, 4-1 with the Pack a road pup, 24-7 following a spread-cover, 22-8-1 in conference action and 20-8 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
Kansas City (3-12, 6-9 ATS) at Denver (8-7, 9-6 ATS)
The Broncos, now a long shot to make the playoffs, wrap up the regular season against the lowly division rival Chiefs at Invesco Field at Mile High.
Denver rallied from a 27-10 third-quarter deficit Sunday at Philadelphia, but ultimately lost 30-27 as a seven-point pup. It was the first Broncos game this season – and in fact the first in their last 18 overall – that the SU winner didn’t cover. Denver continues to rank among the league’s best defenses, allowing 301.1 ypg (fifth) and 18.7 ppg (eighth), but the Broncos are averaging just 20.1 ppg (tied for 19th). Denver busted out of the gate with six straight wins under first-year coach Josh McDaniels, but now needs to win today and get a lot of help to qualify for the postseason.
Kansas City has dropped five consecutive games (1-4 ATS), including a 17-10 loss last week at Cincinnati, though it covered as a hefty 13-point underdog. The Chiefs are near the bottom of the pack in total offense (288.5 ypg, 28th) and scoring (16.7 ppg, 25th), and their defense is no better, yielding 379.9 ypg and 26.7 ppg, both 30th in the league.
Denver has won four of the last five in this rivalry (3-2 ATS), rolling to a 44-13 road rout four weeks ago as a six-point chalk. The Broncos are 6-2 ATS in the last eight home clashes with Kansas City, and the home team is 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Also, the SU winner is on an 8-2 ATS run.
The Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine starts following a spread-cover, but they are on several negative ATS streaks, including 8-20-1 at Invesco, 7-22-1 laying points, 7-18-1 against losing teams, 6-16-1 in the AFC West and 2-6 following a SU loss. The Chiefs are on ATS skids of 1-4 overall, 1-4 in the division and 2-6 in January, though they are 4-1 ATS in their last five roadies (all as a pup) and are 10-2 ATS in their last dozen catching more than 10 points.
The under is 6-1 in Denver’s last seven home games, but the over is on runs for the Broncos of 4-0 overall, 5-1 against losing teams, 4-1 in January, 13-5 in AFC West action and 18-7-2 following a SU loss. For Kansas City, the under has hit in seven of its last eight Week 17 games and is on a 4-1 surge in January, but the over is 4-1-1 in the Chiefs’ last six against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last five meetings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Baltimore (8-7, 8-6-1 ATS) at Oakland (5-10, 7-8 ATS)
The Ravens, who are in a win-and-you’re-in playoff situation, make the long trek to the West Coast to face the inconsistent Raiders at the Coliseum.
Baltimore fell to Pittsburgh 23-20 last week, getting a push as a three-point road pup in a game that ended its modest two-game SU and ATS uptick. The Ravens are averaging 24.7 ppg for the year, but they’ve scored 20 points or less in six of their last eight games. Picking up the slack is a defense that’s second in the league in points allowed, at a meager 16.5 per game, and third in total yards allowed (298.9 ypg).
Oakland has pulled off a few upsets this year, beating Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Denver – all playoff-bound or in playoff contention – but the Raiders have also lost their share of games against league doormats. That was the case last week, when Oakland fell 23-9 as a three-point ‘dog at Cleveland. The Raiders have alternated SU wins and losses over their last seven games, and alternated ATS wins and losses over their last 11.
Baltimore is 8-1 SU and ATS in the last nine clashes with Oakland, but only four of those meetings came in the last 10 years, with the Ravens going 3-1 SU and ATS. Last year, Baltimore rolled 29-10 as a nine-point home chalk. The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, as is the home team, and the SU winner has cashed in the last 10 matchups dating to 1986 with the Ravens were the Browns.
The Ravens are on ATS rolls of 19-9-1 overall, 11-0 against losing teams, 4-1 after a SU loss and 13-4 laying points, but they’ve gone just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 as a road chalk and are on a 2-6 ATS slide in January. The Raiders are on pointspread dives of 1-5 in Week 17, 16-38-1 at the Coliseum and 10-22 as a home pup, but they also sport positive ATS streaks of 5-0 after a non-cover, 5-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 against winning teams.
Baltimore is on “under” tears of 6-2-1 overall, 3-0-1 on the road, 5-1-1 within the AFC, 4-1 against losing teams, 10-3 laying points and 12-4-2 as a road chalk. The under is also 41-19-2 in Oakland’s last 62 game against winning teams, and in this rivalry, the under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE and UNDER
Washington (4-11, 7-8 ATS) at San Diego (12-3, 8-7 ATS)
The Chargers, winners of 10 straight and having already clinched the No. 2 AFC playoff seed, close out the regular season against the Redskins at Qualcomm Stadium.
San Diego ripped Tennessee 42-17 in a Christmas night contest last week as a three-point road ‘dog, improving to 7-3 ATS during its 10-game SU run. The Chargers have nothing to play for this week, but coach Norv Turner has indicated that his healthy starters – including QB Philip Rivers – will play, though he didn’t specific for how long.
Washington is playing out the string, having lost five of its last six and nine of its last 11, including a 17-0 home setback to Dallas last Sunday night as a seven-point underdog. The Redskins average just 16.4 ppg (26th) and 310.6 ypg (23rd), and they’ll try to avoid their third losing streak of three or more games this year in Sunday’s finale.
In two meetings this decade, San Diego is 2-0 SU and ATS against Washington, most recently winning 23-17 in overtime in November 2005 as a 3½-point road chalk.
The Chargers are on nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 6-2 overall, 4-1 in January and 21-7 laying 3½ to 10 points at home. The Redskins have cashed in five of their last seven games and are on a 4-1 ATS run on the road, but they are 3-8-2 ATS in their last dozen coming off an ATS setback.
The over for San Diego is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home and 4-1 as a chalk, and the over for Washington is on runs of 4-1 overall, 6-2 as a pup and 6-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
Tennessee (7-8, 6-9 ATS) at Seattle (5-10 SU and ATS)
Two teams with nothing on the line but pride wrap up the season when the Titans head to the Pacific Northwest for a non-conference contest with the Seahawks at Qwest Field.
Tennessee, which rebounded from an 0-6 SU start this season (1-5 ATS), had its slim playoff hopes halted in a 42-17 blowout home loss to San Diego as a three-point chalk last week. It was the Titans’ fourth ATS setback in their last five games. About all Tennessee has to play for this week is trying to get stud RB Chris Johnson a 2,000-yard rushing season. Johnson has 1,872 yards (5.8 ypc), more than 500 yards ahead of second-place Steven Jackson (1,353).
Seattle also got belted last Sunday, losing 48-10 at Green Bay as a 13½-point underdog for its third consecutive SU and ATS setback – by a combined total score of 96-24.
These teams last met in 2005, with Seattle notching a 28-24 road win, but Tennessee covered as a seven-point ‘dog. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
The Titans are on a 10-3 ATS run against losing teams and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a road chalk, but along with their current 1-4 ATS skid, they are on pointspread purges of 2-7 after an ATS loss, 2-6 after a SU setback, 3-8 laying points and 3-7-1 in January. The Seahawks have covered in five of their last seven against losing teams, but they are on ATS plunges of 4-10 overall and 1-9 as an underdog.
Tennessee sports “over” streaks of 5-0 against losing teams, 4-1 as a favorite and 39-19-1 following a SU loss, and the over is 7-3-1 in Seattle’s last 11 following a SU loss and 7-3 in its last 10 after an ATS defeat. However, the under for Seattle is on runs of 4-1 at Qwest and 6-2 with the Seahawks a home pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Cincinnati (10-5, 7-8 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (8-7 SU and ATS)
The Bengals, already assured of either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the AFC playoffs, face a Jets squad that must win in order to reach the postseason.
Cincinnati snapped a two-game SU skid with a 17-10 home victory over Kansas City on Sunday, but it fell well short as a 13-point chalk, its fifth ATS setback in the last six games. Regardless of the outcome against the Jets, the Bengals will have a home game on wild-card weekend, so coach Marvin Lewis might look to limit his starters.
New York got a big break at previously unbeaten Indianapolis last week, posting a 29-15 win as a three-point road pup, after Colts coach Jim Caldwell opted to pull his stars in the third quarter while leading 15-10. The Jets have rebounded from a 1-6 SU and ATS nosedive, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games to gain control of their own destiny in the race for the playoffs.
These teams have met each of the last two seasons, splitting SU and ATS, with the home team winning and covering each time. In October 2007, Cincy won 38-31 as a six-point chalk, and in October 2008, New York won 26-14 giving 9½ points.
Despite their current 1-5 ATS slide, the Bengals still carry positive ATS streaks of 9-1 as an underdog, 5-1 as a road pup and 7-1 against winning teams. The Jets have gone 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five home games (all as a chalk), but along with their current 4-1 ATS run, they’ve gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Week 17 outings.
The SU winner has cashed in all 15 games for the Jets this year and is on a 17-0 overall run, and the underdog is 14-1 in the Bengals’ 15 outings this year.
Cincinnati, with one of the league’s top defenses yielding just 16.9 ppg (fifth), is on “under” rolls of 4-1 overall, 6-1 after a SU win, 6-2 in the AFC, 9-3 in regular-season finales and 5-2 as a pup. Similarly, New York is on “under” runs of 4-1-1 overall, 4-0 as a chalk, 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS win and 3-1-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS and UNDER
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