SPORTSINSIGHTS
NFL Week 16 was the Christmas gift the sportsbooks have been waiting for all season. All sportsbooks reported another solid weekend with most retaining between 4-5% of their handle. The final two weeks of the NFL regular season always carries a lot of surprises. The old saying holds true this time of year, "Misery loves company." The role of the spoiler is a powerful motivator in the final weeks of the season. Teams with nothing to play for come out and play their best games of the year against teams trying to make the playoffs. The big decisions for the books were Tampa, a 14-point underdog, beating New Orleans; Carolina, a 9-point underdog, pounding the New York Giants; and the New York Jets, which opened as 7-point underdogs, spoiling Indy's undefeated season. Chicago beating Minnesota on Monday Night Football was final nail in the coffin for the betting public. The sportsbook industry looks to continue this positive momentum into the final Sunday of the regular season. As we mentioned in last week's column, the last two weeks of the NFL regular season historically favor betting home underdogs. There is a good chance for the sports betting industry to close out the regular season on a high note.
Our Games to Watch continued its wining ways, going 2-1, and for the season putting us above .500 and back to even money, 23-21-2, 52.3%. It's been a tough year for betting against the public, but we've stuck to our guns and are in a good position to capitalize on the Public's tendency to overvalue road favorites in the last two weeks of the regular season. We'll look to finish the season strong -- and in the black for our fifth consecutive year.
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
This match-up is seeing a huge, overwhelming landslide of bets coming down on the Chicago Bears. Almost 90% of bets are taking the Bears, who are playing the hapless 2-13 Detroit Lions. We see this as a good opportunity to "Bet Against the Public" -- and grab some good contrarian line movement. The line opened at Detroit +2.5 and has made a huge move to Detroit +3, with good "vig/odds" pricing.
In addition to line movement value, we like Detroit for a number of other reasons, including:
* Selling Chicago's impressive Monday Night showing.
* Smart Money play triggered by 5dimes as alerted by SportsInsights' Premium Pro feature (47-40, + 8.2 units).
* In addition, we like home dogs -- particularly at this time of year.
Detroit Lions +3 +105
San Francisco 49ers vs. St Louis Rams
This is an interesting match-up that one of our offshore contacts circled. Our contact said that a few of his sharpest bettors got down on the St. Louis Rams. Indeed, SportsInsights had a Smart Money play triggered by Carib (33-16, +12.9 units). The Rams are seeing less than 25% of spread bets. Note that because many of the games are relatively "meaningless" with respect to the playoffs, there is less action on the games this week.
The 1-14 Rams are at home -- taking on the 7-8 San Francisco 49ers. As our readers know, we are keen on home dogs near the end of the NFL season. This is a divisional rivalry -- so we should have a "live" home dog going, stirred up by the home crowd in the season finale. Finally, if you shop around, you can now grab extra value by getting 7.5 points -- more than a TD worth of a point spread.
St Louis Rams +7.5 -105
Baltimore Ravens vs. Oakland Raiders
This is a classic Pepto Bismol game. Baltimore is playing for a playoff spot while Oakland is wrapping up another abysmal season. Public money has bid up the point spread from Baltimore -10 to -11. This game is one of the heavier-bet games this week because of the playoff implications and is seeing 75% of the bets take the heavily-favored Ravens.
We see a lot of value in getting Oakland as +11 home dog. "Motivation" -- such as playoff positioning -- is often over-valued by the betting Public. As a result, sportsbooks' odds are also typically inflated. Professional athletes have pride -- and Oakland does not want to be a doormat. Oakland, the "home dogs," will be particularly "live" home dogs at this time of the season. They can give it "their all" for the last game of the season. The Raiders -- and their home crowd will certainly be into it!
Oakland Raiders +11
Tennessee Titans vs. Seattle Seahawks
This game has several interesting storylines. But first, let's take a closer look at the NFL Marketplace. Despite well over 80% of the bets coming on Tenn, "Sharp Money" has been coming in on Seattle. We have the familiar pattern of "reverse line movement" -- with the line moving from Tenn -5.5 down to -4 -- even with the vast majority of bets taking Tenn. Big money is getting down on Seattle. There is still plenty of value in getting Seattle as a +4.5 home dog. Now, let's take a look at some background.
After compiling the NFL's best record last year, Tennessee started this season by going 0-6. They then won 7 of 8 games to get close to the playoff picture -- only to lose last week to San Diego. Tennessee's hot streak got some attention from the fans and media -- and as a result, the Titans are grabbing a huge 85% of the bets this week. We note, however, that both teams in this game are now out of the playoff picture. There's a chance, however, that the Titans will have more of a letdown after their heroic hot streak ended last week.
Tennessee is coming off a pounding from San Diego last week. Let's fade the Public, go with the "Sharps" -- and take yet another "home dog."
Seattle Seahawks +4.5
So, here's a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week's Games to Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (23-21-2, 52.3%)
Detroit Lions +3 +105 (Bet at CRIS +3 +105)
St Louis Rams +7 -105 (Bet at Bodog +7 -105)
Oakland Raiders +11 (Bet at CRIS +11 -110)
Seattle Seahawks +4.5 (Bet at Bodog +4.5 -110)
