Service Plays Sunday 09/20/09

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Cajun-Sports NFL Executive Club- Sunday

6* Sept GOM: Auburn WINS
5* THurs GOM: Miami-Fl WINS
Last Sunday 3-Pack: 2-1 ATS (5* Wins)


Handicapper: Cajun Sports
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys (NFL) - 8:20 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 3/-115 New York Giants Play Title: Cajun Sports NFL 5* Perfect System GOW
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The Dallas Cowboys play host to NFC division rival New York Giants on NBC’s featured Sunday Night NFL Game of the Week. Both teams enter off of wins in their season openers with the Giants defeating the Redskins and Dallas rolled past the Bucs as our NFL 5* Game of the Week last week.
This week we are playing against the Cowboys as they step up in class compared to the Bucs. Dallas was able to move the ball on the ground rushing for 118 yards on 24 attempts and Cowboys QB Tony Romo threw for a career high 344 yards in the 13 point win.

Giants got Osi Umenyiora back in their defensive lineup and it paid instant dividends as he scored a TD in their win against the Redskins last week. The Giants have been able to get pressure on Romo in the past and that leads to mistakes and big plays. On the other hand Eli has done some damage against the Cowboys in the past especially their secondary.

Dallas has struggled in the role of favorite during the month of September when both teams have winning records posting a record of 1-10 against the spread in this situation. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS when facing a team that has allowed less than ten yards per completion season-to-date.

New York has covered eight of the last eleven meetings between the two teams and posted a record of 18-10 ATS against their division rivals overall. The Giants are 12-1 ATS as division underdogs off a non-division win and 10-1 ATS when taking on a .666 or better opponent. NY is 16-0 ATS on the road when facing a team that has averaged less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date, 12-0 ATS on the road when facing a team that has averaged at least 375 yards of offense on the season and 9-0 ATS as an underdog on artificial turf after a SU win.

A check of the database gives us an NFL System that is active for tonight’s game and it says to Play AGAINST a non-Monday undefeated favorite with a TOTAL under 52 points off an ATS win in its last game and not before a Monday division road contest in its next game vs. an undefeated opponent off a non-OT ATS loss in its last game. These favorites are 0-14-1 ATS and fail to cover by an average of 11.8 points per game.

The Giants have the advantage in our TPR Index with a 2.77 point edge and our Math Model also favors New York by 3 points in tonight’s contest. So take the points here as the Giants shock the “Boys” on Sunday night in their new Billion dollar playhouse.


Graded Selection: 5* New York Giants 20 Dallas Cowboys 17


Handicapper: Cajun Sports
St Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 10/-114 St Louis Rams Play Title: Cajun Sports NFL 4* “Major” Underdog Dominator
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The Rams have to make a trip to the east coast to face the Redskins on Sunday afternoon in our nation’s capital. St. Louis just returned from a trip to the west coast last Sunday where they were blanked by the Seattle Seahawks 28 to 0. The Skins lost on the road as well losing 23 to 17 to the Giants in New York.
This appears on the surface to be all Washington since they gave the Giants some trouble and the Rams were shutdown completely in Seattle but once again we must remember this is the NFL and things are never as they appear.

Washington still has problems scoring points in fact they have scored 17 or fewer points in their last eleven games not a good sign when you are laying almost double-digits. The Skins rushed for 85 yards on 21 attempts and only threw for 187 yards on 19 of 26 passing.

One play can change the outcome of a contest and that could of been true for the Rams as they blocked a field goal last week versus the Seahawks and ran it back 49 yards for an apparent touchdown but it was called back because the Rams had twelve men on the field. If that play had not been called back the game would have been tied at 7 going into the half and we could have had a different outcome, not saying the Rams would have won but the deficit may not have been as large, you never know.

The Redskins are 0-7 ATS as a home favorite when facing a team that allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date and 0-6 ATS at home when facing a team without a win after week 1 of the season, 9-18 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more points off a SU loss and 1-8 ATS at home during September versus an opponent off a SU loss.

Play ON road underdogs of seven or more points after playing on the road before Monday, 12-0 ATS since 2008. Play ON a road underdog of 6 to 12.5 points when they were a road dog of 7 to 13.5 points last week and allowed less than 38 points and had less than five turnovers. These underdogs are 19-0 ATS and averaging covering the spread by almost 13 points per game. In fourteen of nineteen of these qualifying games have been won outright by the underdog.

With solid technical support and a favorite of almost double-digits that shouldn’t even be a small favorite against any team in the league we will back the visitor here as they keep this game close and cash the winning ticket on Sunday in DC.


Graded Selection: 4* St. Louis Rams 20 Washington Redskins 23


Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos (NFL) - 4:15 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 3/107 Cleveland Browns Play Title: Cajun Sports NFL 4* AFC “Major” Play of the Day
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Cleveland makes the trip to the Mile High City to face the hometown Denver Broncos on Sunday afternoon. The Browns enter today’s contest off a loss to the Minnesota Vikings while Denver used a tipped pass to score an 87-yard touchdown with 11 seconds left on the clock to defeat the Bengals 12 to 7.
This situation sets up well for the Browns with them 8-1 ATS off a double-digit loss and HC Mangini is 5-0 ATS as an underdog off a double-digit loss. Cleveland was actually winning last week versus the Vikings at the half with a 13 to 10 lead but the Vikings put up 24 unanswered to start the second half and went on to win 34 to 20. The Browns are 9-0 ATS off an underdog loss versus a non-division opponent when they were winning at the half and gave up more than seven points in the second half.

Denver looked horrible last week even in the win they only had 75 yards rushing on 20 attempts and 227 yards through the air on 17 of 26 passing. They ran a total of 48 plays for 302 yards with 87 of those coming on the one-in-a-million pass that was caught for the touchdown by Brandon Stokley. We don’t expect another finish like that and the Browns should have a chance to come away with the outright upset here as the Broncos have no business laying chalk against anyone at this point.

A check of the database gives us a system that is active for today’s matchup and it says In Game 2, play ON a road underdog of less than 10 points off a home underdog SU loss of 4+ points in its last game vs. an opponent not off a division SU win & ATS win of more than 7 points in its last game. These underdogs have posted a record of 14-0 ATS and averaged covering the spread by almost 10 points per game.

With strong technical support and a team that has really struggled in this situation we will take the points with the visitor as Cleveland surprises the Broncos and comes away with a SU victory in Mile High on Sunday.


Graded Selection: 4* Cleveland Browns 17 Denver Broncos 16
 

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Sid Paradise 9/20

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Steelers @ Bears, 4pm Et
The loss of Polamalu will have a much greater impact on the Steelers defense than the loss of Urlacher to the Bears. Now that Cutler has a game under his belt he should play much better this week. The Bears could have still won last week despite the turnovers. The Steelers had one of the worst offensive lines last year giving up the 4th most sacks in the league. Look for the Bears defense to pressure Big Ben, while limiting their already slow running game. With Polamalu out, I see Greg Olsen having a nice day in the middle of the field. Cutler finally arrives as the Bears take down the Super Bowl champs.
Pick- Bears +3 (-110) 4* play


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Ravens @ Chargers, 4pm Et
I feel like the Ravens are being way over valued in this one. They won their opener vs a terrible Chiefs team but scored two TD's late to break a 24-24 tie. Their aging defense could sorely miss Rex Ryan this season. The Chargers didn't look that great either but also got the job done when it mattered. The Ravens have historically not traveled to SD well going 1-4 ATS in their last 5 trips. I think San Diego got the rust out last week and the Chargers will come out ahead in this one. The Chargers also play very well at Qualcomm going 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games. The Chargers are the best team in a weak division, while the Ravens might have been the fluke team of last year.
Pick- Chargers -3 (+115) 8* play

Buccaneers @ Bills, 4pm Et
The Bills looked very solid for 58 minutes last week vs NE but fell apart in the end. This is understandable with Tom Brady on the other side of the field. TB is just plain no good this season. They got beat up pretty bad at home last week vs Dallas and now take their show on the road. They have played well in Buffalo but this year the Bills defense will get the best of them. The Bills are not totally sound on offense and will also struggle to score points. They usually win games at home with defense going 4 of their last 6 at home under the number. Today should be the same.
Pick- Under 42 (-110) 2* play


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Saints @ Eagles, 1pm Et
Both teams are coming off big wins but the Eagles suffered greatly, losing QB Donovan McNabb to a rib injury. The line for this one opened at pick'em but has since moved to favor the visiting Saints. People seem to forget that even with McNabb out, Philly's defense is still tough. The Saints usually don't play as well outdoors, especially when traveling to Philly, where they have lost 4 of the last 5. Kevin Kolb is a 3rd year backup and should have no problems running the team vs the Saints defense. Lions rookie Matt Stafford looked decent last week vs this unit so there should be no reason why Kolb can't get the job done. Getting 2 points at home is a gift! Take full advantage!
Pick- Eagles +2 (-110) 6* play

Panthers @ Falcons, 1pm Et
After last weeks embarrassing loss to the Eagles the Panthers will look to bounce back. This line is way too big because of last week and people are still on the Falcons. The Panthers went 12-4 last season and still have one of the best ground games in the league. If it weren't for Jake Delhomme completely imploding they would have been right in it vs the Eagles. Take the 6.5 and thank me and Vegas later!
Pick- Panthers +6.5 (-115) 4* play
 
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JIMMY BOYD

3* Sunday Bases *BEST BET* on Dodgers -108

The Dodgers smoked the Giants 12-1 Saturday and I like them to take the series with another win Sunday afternoon. The Giants' have trouble scoring runs on the road (just 3.7 per game) and as a result they are just 7-7 in Lincecum's road starts this season. Meanwhile, the Dodgers' are 12-4 in Wolf's home starts this season. The Giants are now 2-8 in their last 10 game 3's of a series, 9-19 in their last 28 road games vs. a left-handed starter, and 1-4 in Lincecum's last 5 road starts. The Dodgers are 7-1 in Wolf's last 8 starts, 5-0 in his last 5 game 3 starts, and 17-5 in his last 22 starts as a home favorite. These games all mean something from here on out and I believe the Dodgers are the better team and they will prevail on their home field.
 
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Street Rosenthal of HandicappingTrends

*200 Milwaukee Brewers -181

I am taking the Brewers for another win today. I have the Brewers as 12-0 Since 2006 as a home 140+ favorite after a win they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series. I also, have the Brewers as 21-5 SU since 2005 as a home 140+ favorite when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher. Finally, I have the Astros as 2-15 SU since 2007 as a 140+ dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start. Take the Astros for the win
 
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ace-ace / allan eastman

$2000.00 Take #221 Arizona (+3) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 20)
A lot of people are jumping off Arizona and actually backing Jacksonville in this game. I think the wrong team is favored and that our live dog will win outright. Jacksonville simply doesn’t have the offense to put enough pressure on the Cardinals, whose defense has looked great so far. Arizona shot themselves in the foot last week with penalties and turnovers. I think they will clean up their act and come out with a strong effort.

$400.00 Take #234 Dallas (-3) over N.Y. Giants (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 20)
A lot of square money is coming in on the Giants in this one. But I think that the Cowboys are going to have a big edge with the home field advantage. They cleaned out most of their locker room problems in the offseason and I think that they will be much better because of it. The favorite has covered in four of the last five meetings and the Cowboys have gotten off to fast starts the last few years, going 8-2 ATS in September. I like the Cowboys to handle this one.

$500.00 Take #215 New Orleans (+1) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 20)
Donovan McNabb is one of the most important players to his team in the NFL. And if he doesn’t play then I think that the Eagles will have a lot of trouble moving the ball. Kevin Kolb is not a proven quarterback and I don’t think that he can trade touchdowns with Drew Brees. New Orleans is 11-5-1 ATS on the road against nondivisional teams and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in this series.

$2200.00Take #218 Atlanta (-6) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 20)
This is my Game of the Week. Jake Delhomme has lost it and Carolina just is not the same team that went 13-3 last year. Atlanta looked great in their dismantling of Miami and I think that they will be way up for this key divisional clash. Carolina simply could not stop Philadelphia from scoring last week and I think that Atlanta’s offense can be even better than the Eagles. And Carolina was at home last week! This play is rated at the highest value by my newest NFL handicapping system and I think it will be another blowout. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and they are 8-3-2 ATS at home against the Panthers.

$700.00 Take #231 Pittsburgh (-3) over Chicago (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 20)
I hit my NFL Game of the Month last week going against Chicago and I’m going right back against them this week. They lost their defensive leader, Brian Urlacher, and I think that Jay Cutler’s struggles will continue against the best defense in football. The Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
 

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Full NSA (The Legend) Card

Beware...Bankrupeted me before but for the board

NFL New England @ NY Jets 1:00 20* New England -3.5(AFC GOY)
NFL Minnesota @ Detroit 1:00 20* Detroit +10
NFL Tampa Bay @ Buffalo 4:05 10* Buffalo -4
NFL Carolina @ Atlanta 1:00 10* OVER 42
NFL Cincinnati @ Green Bay 1:00 10* Cincinnati +9.5
NFL Seattle @ San Francisco 4:05 10* Seattle +1.5

:think2:
 

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Chris Jordans play for today..

300♦ TENNESSEE TITANS - I don't know what to talk about first: the Titans' much better team, or the brutal offensive play calling of the Texans.

Either intangible works for me, cause I don't see the Texans having much of a chance today.

Let's start with the bad news for Texans fans ...

Houston's offense did not score any points last Sunday, and it is highlighted byarguably the most dangerous receiver in the game in Andre Johnson and an exciting complement at running back, Steve Slaton. I know Rex Ryan is in New York now and the Jets have a revamped defense, but this was the home and season opener for the Texans.

And they didn't show up in the least.

Not good.

So what happens in Tennessee, against a defense that has had an extra few days to rest since it opened the season two Thursdays back and lost a heartbreaker in Pittsburgh? Well, let's not forget that Houston signal-caller Matt Schaub was knocked out of the 2007 game in Knoxville, and was sacked three times and intercepted three times last year during his visit.

Again, not good; especially since the Texans have lost four straight in Nashville and are 1-6 overall. In the series - both home and away - the Titans lead 11-3.

Even better, the Titans are 10-2 after losing straight-up and have covered nine straight in the month of September.
 
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Benjamin lee Eckstein

Ben lee lost on Saturday with the Reds -$120/Marlins.

For Sunday "Mr Chalk" likes the Twins -$180/Tigers.

"Mr Chalk" is 1-3 -$460 for the week and is 79-63 -$2390 for the MLB season.
 

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Stephen Nover
Sunday Winners
50-Dime Ravens -

NOTE - Buy UP the 1/2 point on Baltimore. If you have the Ravens at +3, buy them up to +3 1/2 so you get the win should they lose by a field goal.

If you have Baltimore at +2 1/2, buy up to +3 so you get the push should they lose by a field goal.


The Chargers are going to have problems running the ball and protecting Philip Rivers with center Nick Hardwick and guard Louis Vasquez not expected to play. It doesn't help San Diego's cause that LaDainian Tomlinson is out, too, even though the 30-year former great isn't what he used to be.

The Ravens' defense remains top-notch. Baltimore had eight tackles for losses in its opening-week victory against Kansas City. Ed Reed, Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs remain among the best at their position with Reed probably being the No. 1 safety in the NFL.

San Diego's defense isn't that good. A healthy Shawne Merriman was expected to pick up the Chargers' defense, but he's been a distraction and didn't have his old burst back during Game 1 following reconstructive knee surgery.

Baltimore's offense is more diversified and explosive with the improvement of second-year quarterback Joe Flacco. The Chargers ranked second-from-the-bottom in pass defense last year. Flacco threw for more than 300 yards in Baltimore's opening win. The Ravens have three good running backs and with the offense gaining more confidence in Flacco, they definitely should be able to put up points against San Diego's defense.

The Chargers are on a short week having been extended in a narrow road division win Monday night against Oakland. Norv Turner is one of the worst head coaches in the league. His Chargers have failed to cover six of the past eight times they've been favored. The Chargers constantly failed when stepping up in class during the regular season last year losing to Atlanta at home, Indianapolis at home, Pittsburgh on the road, Miami on the road and Carolina at home.

The Ravens have covered 16 of their past 21 games. They are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 AFC matchups. The Ravens are 6-1 against the number under John Harbaugh as a regular-season underdog, including 5-2 last season as a road underdog.
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Larry Ness

15* Jax Jaguars
PERFECT STORM 20* Ten Titans
Total of the Month 20* Pit/Chi Over.

Cork, you around?

Thanks
 
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Rocketman Sports plays are rated 1-5 units! NFL Cincinnati @ Green Bay 1:00 PM EST Play On: 3* Cincinnati +9 1/2 I feel like this Bengals team will improve greatly this week and this season. Carson Palmer should have a good day here this afternoon. Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS before playing the Steelers. Green Bay is 1-5 ATS after playing Chicago last 6. We'll play Cincinnati for 3 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky Tampa Bay @ Buffalo 4:05 PM EST Play On: 3* Tampa Bay +4 1/2 Tampa Bay played a better game than the score indicated last week against Dallas. Tampa Bay is 2-0 SU and ATS overall vs Buffalo since 1992. Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in September. Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on turf. Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. We'll play Tampa Bay for 3 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
 

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