I am going to get it.
Paid by Me
Al DeMarco
Al DeMarco
Sunday's Play
15 Dime - New Orleans
Clarifying a point: With a healthy Donovan McNabb, the Eagles would have been laying at least 3 points and this selection would have still been New Orleans.
The Eagles' signal-caller, who suffered a broken rib in last week's road win at Carolina, is officially listed as "doubtful" for this contest as of Saturday, and he had not practiced all week. Kevin Kolb, who has seen nothing but mop-up duty since being drafted in the second round out of Houston a few years back, has run the first-team offense all week while former Eagle, Jeff Garcia - re-signed earlier this week after McNabb's injury - ran the scout team. This will be Kolb's first start, if published reports are to be believed and McNabb doesn't try to take the field with a flak jacket and pain-numbing injections. Even with an injured McNabb rather than an inexperienced Kolb, the play remains New Orleans.
The Saints, as expected, rolled over Detroit last Sunday at home, 45-27, as Drew Brees completed 26-of-34 passes for 358 yards and 6 TDs to guide an offense that enjoyed a 515-231 edge in total yards. More importantly, with Pierre Thomas sidelined, former Bronco Mike Bell carried the ball 28 times for 143 yards to key the ground game.
The Eagles are coming off a game at Carolina in which their defense forced 7 turnovers and sacked Jake Delhomme five times. But in three previous meetings against New Orleans, their pass rush nailed Brees only four times total because of his quick release. That's one reason New Orleans has averaged 26 points in the last three series showdowns.
With Thomas questionable for this contest, the bulk of the ball-carrying duties are expected to go to Bell again as Reggie Bush (7 carries, 14 yards) was virtually non-existent against the Lions. But the big key to the offense might be the tight end combo of Jeremy Shockey and Billy Miller, who combined for 95 receptions a year ago. Shockey had four catches and his first two TDs since joining the Saints last week. Opposing tight ends constantly found seams in the Philadelphia defense last year, and that coverage has been weakened with the absence of starting middle linebacker Stewart Bradley, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in training camp.
Philadelphia put 38 points on the board at Carolina last week, but the defense and special teams were either directly responsible or contributed mightily to 21 of those points before the game was out of reach. Otherwise, even with McNabb at the helm, the Eagles managed a pedestrian 267 total yards in offense against a porous Panther stop unit that had allowed 29.5 points in its previous seven games dating back to last season.
New Orleans has not fielded a good defense in recent years; thus the reason behind the hiring of renowned veteran defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who when serving in the same capacity with the Eagles NFC East rival Washington from 2004-07, helped hold potent Philadelphia offenses to an average of 21 points in eight meetings.
In terms of technical trends, New Orleans is 11-5-1 ATS in its last 17 road outings against non-division foes. Plus, the Saints are on a 15-9-1 overall pointspread tear on the highway since the 2006 season.
Andre Gomes 9/20
OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY
I like the Raiders in here to get their first win of the season, a win that should have happened last week against the Chargers, but a late Phillips Rivers' Touchdown prevented them for a well deserved win. I understand that this isn't a good spot for them, as they made a huge effort (especially their defense) in their last game and had also one less day to rest and prepare this game but despite having one more day to rest, the Chiefs defense are also pretty beaten up. Let's not forget that the Ravens had 40 minutes of the full possession time (66.7 %!) and the Chiefs were overexposed to the powerful and physical Ravens' offensive line.
Kansas City's biggest problem last week was a familiar one: It couldn't get to the quarterback often enough. That was a constant problem last season, when the Chiefs ended the season with 10 sacks, the worst number in NFL history for a 16-game schedule. QB Joe Flacco had all the room to operate and in some flashes, he looked like one of the best QBs of the league with 3 touchdowns and 307 yards due to the time he had to prepare the plays. The Chiefs couldn't stop as well the Ravens running game, as they ended with 198 yards with almost 5 yds per carry! So globally the Chiefs defense remained in the same level from last season: a total disaster! With just 188 total yards how in the hell the Chiefs were able to score 24 points against the top defensive Raven's team? Well...they got lucky! They scored a touchdown by recovering a blocked punt in the end zone and later they scored another touchdown in the third quarter by picking off a Flacco's pass and ran 70 yards before scoring the touchdown, so in normal conditions the Chiefs wouldn't score 24 points.
For this contest QB Matt Cassell is probable and he will start for the Chiefs. However let's not forget that Cassell didn't play since the second week of the preseason and not only there is the chance of him being rusty today, but also being in a new team and system, you don't want to miss the chance to practice and play and Cassell didn't make both. The Raiders defense made a terrific job in their last game against the Chargers behind the leadership of Richard Seymour and they won't havee much problems to handle this less than average Chief's offensive unit.
The Raiders are a run oriented team and they only really need JaMarcus Russell to be assertive and accurate in his passes to be a better than average offensive unit. Against the Chargers, McFadden and Bush rushed 68 and 55 yards respectively and for this contest with the third RB Justin Fargas probable the Raiders will have a trio of RB's that will explore the weakness defensive unit of the Chiefs in stopping the run.
In my opinion, the Raiders are the better team in here and the typical home court advantage of 3 points shouldn't apply in here and that's why I see enough value in the Raiders today
Single Dime Play on Oakland Raiders +3
OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY
I like the Raiders in here to get their first win of the season, a win that should have happened last week against the Chargers, but a late Phillips Rivers' Touchdown prevented them for a well deserved win. I understand that this isn't a good spot for them, as they made a huge effort (especially their defense) in their last game and had also one less day to rest and prepare this game but despite having one more day to rest, the Chiefs defense are also pretty beaten up. Let's not forget that the Ravens had 40 minutes of the full possession time (66.7 %!) and the Chiefs were overexposed to the powerful and physical Ravens' offensive line.
Kansas City's biggest problem last week was a familiar one: It couldn't get to the quarterback often enough. That was a constant problem last season, when the Chiefs ended the season with 10 sacks, the worst number in NFL history for a 16-game schedule. QB Joe Flacco had all the room to operate and in some flashes, he looked like one of the best QBs of the league with 3 touchdowns and 307 yards due to the time he had to prepare the plays. The Chiefs couldn't stop as well the Ravens running game, as they ended with 198 yards with almost 5 yds per carry! So globally the Chiefs defense remained in the same level from last season: a total disaster! With just 188 total yards how in the hell the Chiefs were able to score 24 points against the top defensive Raven's team? Well...they got lucky! They scored a touchdown by recovering a blocked punt in the end zone and later they scored another touchdown in the third quarter by picking off a Flacco's pass and ran 70 yards before scoring the touchdown, so in normal conditions the Chiefs wouldn't score 24 points.
For this contest QB Matt Cassell is probable and he will start for the Chiefs. However let's not forget that Cassell didn't play since the second week of the preseason and not only there is the chance of him being rusty today, but also being in a new team and system, you don't want to miss the chance to practice and play and Cassell didn't make both. The Raiders defense made a terrific job in their last game against the Chargers behind the leadership of Richard Seymour and they won't havee much problems to handle this less than average Chief's offensive unit.
The Raiders are a run oriented team and they only really need JaMarcus Russell to be assertive and accurate in his passes to be a better than average offensive unit. Against the Chargers, McFadden and Bush rushed 68 and 55 yards respectively and for this contest with the third RB Justin Fargas probable the Raiders will have a trio of RB's that will explore the weakness defensive unit of the Chiefs in stopping the run.
In my opinion, the Raiders are the better team in here and the typical home court advantage of 3 points shouldn't apply in here and that's why I see enough value in the Raiders today
Single Dime Play on Oakland Raiders +3
kevin kavith / gamebreaker
Monday, September 21, 2009
8:30 PM
Miami
Indianapolis
Spread Pick
Picked Miami with spread of +3 (+102)
100 units were wagered.
Nice home dog situation. A solid team and defense vs a public-loved team. Add in a proven NFL system that goes against road favs that won but failed to cover the previous week. Almost 80% of the public is hitting this one and it will probably increase on Monday as usual. But the line has moved DOWN from -3.5. Hmmm. We've seen this movie before and guess where the sharp money is landing. Take Miami +3 for a 3* play.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
8:20 PM
Dallas
NY Giants
Spread Pick
Picked NY Giants with spread of +3 (-115)
100 units were wagered.
Giants have every chance to grab a S/U win here so I'll grab the +3. Take the NY Giants +3 for a 3* play.
1:00 PM
Atlanta
Carolina
Spread Pick
Picked Carolina with spread of +6 (-105)
100 units were wagered.
Nice opporturtunity catching +6 with the Panthers. I definitely like respectable teams with an experienced QB after a week 1 blowout loss. Even better, the Panthers turned over the ball like crazy last week and the Falcons benefitted from a + turnover margin. That helps inflate the line and the public is all over the Falcons, in spite of an incredible history of bouncing back off bad games by Delhomme and the Panthers, especially as dogs. Take Carolina +6 for a 4* Play.
1:00 PM
Detroit
Minnesota
Spread Pick
Picked Detroit with spread of +10 (-113)
100 units were wagered.
Detroit is a 10 point home dog in week 2? They didn't quit in the 2nd half of their game last week and Minnesota is going to run the ball and fantasy owners may not see much of AP in the 4th quarter. It's ugly but the line has been inflated to make up for 75% of bets pouring in on the Favre-led Vikings. I can see Detroit losing by 6 or 7 here. Hold your nose and take Detroit +10 for a 3* play
Monday, September 21, 2009
8:30 PM
Miami
Indianapolis
Spread Pick
Picked Miami with spread of +3 (+102)
100 units were wagered.
Nice home dog situation. A solid team and defense vs a public-loved team. Add in a proven NFL system that goes against road favs that won but failed to cover the previous week. Almost 80% of the public is hitting this one and it will probably increase on Monday as usual. But the line has moved DOWN from -3.5. Hmmm. We've seen this movie before and guess where the sharp money is landing. Take Miami +3 for a 3* play.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
8:20 PM
Dallas
NY Giants
Spread Pick
Picked NY Giants with spread of +3 (-115)
100 units were wagered.
Giants have every chance to grab a S/U win here so I'll grab the +3. Take the NY Giants +3 for a 3* play.
1:00 PM
Atlanta
Carolina
Spread Pick
Picked Carolina with spread of +6 (-105)
100 units were wagered.
Nice opporturtunity catching +6 with the Panthers. I definitely like respectable teams with an experienced QB after a week 1 blowout loss. Even better, the Panthers turned over the ball like crazy last week and the Falcons benefitted from a + turnover margin. That helps inflate the line and the public is all over the Falcons, in spite of an incredible history of bouncing back off bad games by Delhomme and the Panthers, especially as dogs. Take Carolina +6 for a 4* Play.
1:00 PM
Detroit
Minnesota
Spread Pick
Picked Detroit with spread of +10 (-113)
100 units were wagered.
Detroit is a 10 point home dog in week 2? They didn't quit in the 2nd half of their game last week and Minnesota is going to run the ball and fantasy owners may not see much of AP in the 4th quarter. It's ugly but the line has been inflated to make up for 75% of bets pouring in on the Favre-led Vikings. I can see Detroit losing by 6 or 7 here. Hold your nose and take Detroit +10 for a 3* play
Ferringo 9-20-09
1.5-Unit Play. Take #912 St. Louis (-160) over Chicago Cubs (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 20)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Florida at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 20)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 Toronto at Tampa Bay (1:30 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 20)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Cleveland at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 20)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #912 St. Louis (-160) over Chicago Cubs (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 20)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Florida at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 20)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 Toronto at Tampa Bay (1:30 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 20)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Cleveland at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 20)
5 Unit Pick #911 Take Chicago Cubs (+1.45) over St. Louis (Sept. 20, 8:05)
Betting against one of baseball best since the all-star break but when you get to take back this type of money is pure value. The Cubs send Carlos Zambrano who is coming off a so-so outing giving up five runs in five innings. This will be his third start vs. St. Louis this year after facing off against Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright back on July 12th where he and the Cubs came out on top in a 7-3 win a (-1.15) home favorite. So the oddsmaker makes a adjustment here which they should with the Cubs playing out the string and the Cardinals clinching the division just a formality. But this is to big of adjustment of 75 cents here, Zambian has been better on the road this year with a 3.03 era in 13 starts and has given up just 26 earned runs in 77 innings in those road starts. Zambian has also pitched well in St. Louis with a 5-1 record and a 0.95 era in nine starts their. I don’t have anything bad to say about Adam Wainwright, he is solid major league pitcher and has been in good form just not good enough to warrant this chalk.
2 Unit Play #918 Take Baltimore (+1.45) over Boston (Sept. 20, 1:35)
Daisuke Matsuzaka gets his second start of the disabled list after pitching great in his first start back vs. the Angels pitching six innings of shutout baseball. Boston is in the clear with the wild card but the odds maker is still pricing them here as a must win when in realty the Red Soxs will keep Matsuzaka on a short lease here. Baltimore has hit him in the past as Matsuzaka has a 4.72 era vs. Baltimore. Not a big bet but it is a bet here against the Sox’s in a game that means nothing to them.
Thanks and Good Luck-Dave Busk. Guy's solid NFL card up today that has 14 units in action that includes a solid 5 unit play at 4:15 pm eastern along with a four unit play MNF Colts/Dolphins
Betting against one of baseball best since the all-star break but when you get to take back this type of money is pure value. The Cubs send Carlos Zambrano who is coming off a so-so outing giving up five runs in five innings. This will be his third start vs. St. Louis this year after facing off against Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright back on July 12th where he and the Cubs came out on top in a 7-3 win a (-1.15) home favorite. So the oddsmaker makes a adjustment here which they should with the Cubs playing out the string and the Cardinals clinching the division just a formality. But this is to big of adjustment of 75 cents here, Zambian has been better on the road this year with a 3.03 era in 13 starts and has given up just 26 earned runs in 77 innings in those road starts. Zambian has also pitched well in St. Louis with a 5-1 record and a 0.95 era in nine starts their. I don’t have anything bad to say about Adam Wainwright, he is solid major league pitcher and has been in good form just not good enough to warrant this chalk.
2 Unit Play #918 Take Baltimore (+1.45) over Boston (Sept. 20, 1:35)
Daisuke Matsuzaka gets his second start of the disabled list after pitching great in his first start back vs. the Angels pitching six innings of shutout baseball. Boston is in the clear with the wild card but the odds maker is still pricing them here as a must win when in realty the Red Soxs will keep Matsuzaka on a short lease here. Baltimore has hit him in the past as Matsuzaka has a 4.72 era vs. Baltimore. Not a big bet but it is a bet here against the Sox’s in a game that means nothing to them.
Thanks and Good Luck-Dave Busk. Guy's solid NFL card up today that has 14 units in action that includes a solid 5 unit play at 4:15 pm eastern along with a four unit play MNF Colts/Dolphins
