Mike Handzelek 2 of 4 Plays
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=8></TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#eaeded><TD align=left colSpan=2><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=8>Sunday, September 20, 2009</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#eaeded><TD align=left colSpan=2>Handicapper: Mike Handzelek </TD></TR><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#eaeded><TD align=left width="85%">Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 4:05 PM EDT</TD><TD>Premium Pick</TD></TR><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#eaeded><TD align=left>Pick: Point Spread: -1/-116 San Francisco 49ers Play Title: Hilton Superbook Gold</TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#eaeded><TD colSpan=8>[SIZE=-2]Click Here to View Pick Analysis[/SIZE]
This Hilton selection is gold because Shaun Hill has learned to become the game manager Mike Singletary knew he'd be. Singletary also remembers the 34-14 thrashing he took by Seattle in his coaching debut. Hill's 8-3 career mark is not too shabby for the QB and neither is the running game of Frank Gore. MLB Tatupu for the Seahawks has a nagging hamstring injury and I see the 49ers ground game stepping it up in a big way by games' end. San Francisco is also 10 points away from an actual 9-0 ATS run so Mighty Mike has righted the ship in our direction. Seattle doesn't play well on the road or especially off a double-digit division win. They're just 7-16 ATS in that later role. Hasselbeck does have a good receiving corp but the running game with Jones isn't consistent enough to San Francisco's Frank Gore. Pride and respectability is the statement here that will be made by the 49ers & Singletary. This will be an interesting division as we put up the 49ers as our Hilton Superbook Gold for $300.
</TD></TR><TR><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left colSpan=2>Handicapper: Mike Handzelek </TD></TR><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left width="85%">Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT</TD><TD>Premium Pick</TD></TR><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Pick: Total: 42/-104 Under Play Title: Over & Under Bookies' Nightmare</TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#ffffff><TD colSpan=8>[SIZE=-2]Click Here to View Pick Analysis[/SIZE]
John Fox is no dummy. After seeing his quarterback throw 9 interceptions his past 48 passing attempts, he's served notice to his offensive line that DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart must carry them to victory in this hostile environment of 71,000 faithful @ the Georgia Dome. The good news is Carolina will continue to run the ball all game while mixing in a controlled passing game to minimize turnovers and speed up the clock immensely to our liking. We're also not blaming the Carolina defense last week that took the field 5 times on the wrong side of the 50 & twice inside the 10. They also watched as 14 points were scored with them on the sidelines. The bottom line is these teams know each others tendencies very well which will lead to minimized turnovers by controlled offenses. Also, a vanilla-like Miami defense held the Falcons & Michael Turner in check last week by yielding 19 points. The Panthers are more than capable of containing them also. Ryan may grit out a win SU but our Over & Under Bookies' Nightmare Play is to take UNDER for $300 in the Carolina-Atlanta game.
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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=8></TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#eaeded><TD align=left colSpan=2><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=8>Sunday, September 20, 2009</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#eaeded><TD align=left colSpan=2>Handicapper: Mike Handzelek </TD></TR><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#eaeded><TD align=left width="85%">Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 4:05 PM EDT</TD><TD>Premium Pick</TD></TR><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#eaeded><TD align=left>Pick: Point Spread: -1/-116 San Francisco 49ers Play Title: Hilton Superbook Gold</TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#eaeded><TD colSpan=8>[SIZE=-2]Click Here to View Pick Analysis[/SIZE]
This Hilton selection is gold because Shaun Hill has learned to become the game manager Mike Singletary knew he'd be. Singletary also remembers the 34-14 thrashing he took by Seattle in his coaching debut. Hill's 8-3 career mark is not too shabby for the QB and neither is the running game of Frank Gore. MLB Tatupu for the Seahawks has a nagging hamstring injury and I see the 49ers ground game stepping it up in a big way by games' end. San Francisco is also 10 points away from an actual 9-0 ATS run so Mighty Mike has righted the ship in our direction. Seattle doesn't play well on the road or especially off a double-digit division win. They're just 7-16 ATS in that later role. Hasselbeck does have a good receiving corp but the running game with Jones isn't consistent enough to San Francisco's Frank Gore. Pride and respectability is the statement here that will be made by the 49ers & Singletary. This will be an interesting division as we put up the 49ers as our Hilton Superbook Gold for $300.
</TD></TR><TR><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left colSpan=2>Handicapper: Mike Handzelek </TD></TR><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left width="85%">Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT</TD><TD>Premium Pick</TD></TR><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Pick: Total: 42/-104 Under Play Title: Over & Under Bookies' Nightmare</TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#ffffff><TD colSpan=8>[SIZE=-2]Click Here to View Pick Analysis[/SIZE]
John Fox is no dummy. After seeing his quarterback throw 9 interceptions his past 48 passing attempts, he's served notice to his offensive line that DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart must carry them to victory in this hostile environment of 71,000 faithful @ the Georgia Dome. The good news is Carolina will continue to run the ball all game while mixing in a controlled passing game to minimize turnovers and speed up the clock immensely to our liking. We're also not blaming the Carolina defense last week that took the field 5 times on the wrong side of the 50 & twice inside the 10. They also watched as 14 points were scored with them on the sidelines. The bottom line is these teams know each others tendencies very well which will lead to minimized turnovers by controlled offenses. Also, a vanilla-like Miami defense held the Falcons & Michael Turner in check last week by yielding 19 points. The Panthers are more than capable of containing them also. Ryan may grit out a win SU but our Over & Under Bookies' Nightmare Play is to take UNDER for $300 in the Carolina-Atlanta game.
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Ron Raymond
Carolina vs. Atlanta
Here’s one of those situations where you seen the Carolina Panthers turn the ball over 7 times and the Eagles scored 24 points off those turnovers. Carolina has a great head coach in John Fox and they’ve beaten the Falcons 3 out of 4 times in the Georgia Dome in their last 4 trips to Atlanta. ATSDatabase.com Tip When CAROLINA PANTHERS team played as a Road team - Vs Division Opponent - Coming off 1 game loss - Coming off a loss; The Panthers are 12-3-1 ATS in this spot.
Forecast: Carolina 23 Atlanta 20
Carolina vs. Atlanta
Here’s one of those situations where you seen the Carolina Panthers turn the ball over 7 times and the Eagles scored 24 points off those turnovers. Carolina has a great head coach in John Fox and they’ve beaten the Falcons 3 out of 4 times in the Georgia Dome in their last 4 trips to Atlanta. ATSDatabase.com Tip When CAROLINA PANTHERS team played as a Road team - Vs Division Opponent - Coming off 1 game loss - Coming off a loss; The Panthers are 12-3-1 ATS in this spot.
Forecast: Carolina 23 Atlanta 20
Andre Gomes
OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY
I like the Raiders in here to get their first win of the season, a win that should have happened last week against the Chargers, but a late Phillips Rivers' Touchdown prevented them for a well deserved win. I understand that this isn't a good spot for them, as they made a huge effort (especially their defense) in their last game and had also one less day to rest and prepare this game but despite having one more day to rest, the Chiefs defense are also pretty beaten up. Let's not forget that the Ravens had 40 minutes of the full possession time (66.7 %!) and the Chiefs were overexposed to the powerful and physical Ravens' offensive line.
Kansas City's biggest problem last week was a familiar one: It couldn't get to the quarterback often enough. That was a constant problem last season, when the Chiefs ended the season with 10 sacks, the worst number in NFL history for a 16-game schedule. QB Joe Flacco had all the room to operate and in some flashes, he looked like one of the best QBs of the league with 3 touchdowns and 307 yards due to the time he had to prepare the plays. The Chiefs couldn't stop as well the Ravens running game, as they ended with 198 yards with almost 5 yds per carry! So globally the Chiefs defense remained in the same level from last season: a total disaster! With just 188 total yards how in the hell the Chiefs were able to score 24 points against the top defensive Raven's team? Well...they got lucky! They scored a touchdown by recovering a blocked punt in the end zone and later they scored another touchdown in the third quarter by picking off a Flacco's pass and ran 70 yards before scoring the touchdown, so in normal conditions the Chiefs wouldn't score 24 points.
For this contest QB Matt Cassell is probable and he will start for the Chiefs. However let's not forget that Cassell didn't play since the second week of the preseason and not only there is the chance of him being rusty today, but also being in a new team and system, you don't want to miss the chance to practice and play and Cassell didn't make both. The Raiders defense made a terrific job in their last game against the Chargers behind the leadership of Richard Seymour and they won't havee much problems to handle this less than average Chief's offensive unit.
The Raiders are a run oriented team and they only really need JaMarcus Russell to be assertive and accurate in his passes to be a better than average offensive unit. Against the Chargers, McFadden and Bush rushed 68 and 55 yards respectively and for this contest with the third RB Justin Fargas probable the Raiders will have a trio of RB's that will explore the weakness defensive unit of the Chiefs in stopping the run.
In my opinion, the Raiders are the better team in here and the typical home court advantage of 3 points shouldn't apply in here and that's why I see enough value in the Raiders today
Single Dime Play on Oakland Raiders +3
OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY
I like the Raiders in here to get their first win of the season, a win that should have happened last week against the Chargers, but a late Phillips Rivers' Touchdown prevented them for a well deserved win. I understand that this isn't a good spot for them, as they made a huge effort (especially their defense) in their last game and had also one less day to rest and prepare this game but despite having one more day to rest, the Chiefs defense are also pretty beaten up. Let's not forget that the Ravens had 40 minutes of the full possession time (66.7 %!) and the Chiefs were overexposed to the powerful and physical Ravens' offensive line.
Kansas City's biggest problem last week was a familiar one: It couldn't get to the quarterback often enough. That was a constant problem last season, when the Chiefs ended the season with 10 sacks, the worst number in NFL history for a 16-game schedule. QB Joe Flacco had all the room to operate and in some flashes, he looked like one of the best QBs of the league with 3 touchdowns and 307 yards due to the time he had to prepare the plays. The Chiefs couldn't stop as well the Ravens running game, as they ended with 198 yards with almost 5 yds per carry! So globally the Chiefs defense remained in the same level from last season: a total disaster! With just 188 total yards how in the hell the Chiefs were able to score 24 points against the top defensive Raven's team? Well...they got lucky! They scored a touchdown by recovering a blocked punt in the end zone and later they scored another touchdown in the third quarter by picking off a Flacco's pass and ran 70 yards before scoring the touchdown, so in normal conditions the Chiefs wouldn't score 24 points.
For this contest QB Matt Cassell is probable and he will start for the Chiefs. However let's not forget that Cassell didn't play since the second week of the preseason and not only there is the chance of him being rusty today, but also being in a new team and system, you don't want to miss the chance to practice and play and Cassell didn't make both. The Raiders defense made a terrific job in their last game against the Chargers behind the leadership of Richard Seymour and they won't havee much problems to handle this less than average Chief's offensive unit.
The Raiders are a run oriented team and they only really need JaMarcus Russell to be assertive and accurate in his passes to be a better than average offensive unit. Against the Chargers, McFadden and Bush rushed 68 and 55 yards respectively and for this contest with the third RB Justin Fargas probable the Raiders will have a trio of RB's that will explore the weakness defensive unit of the Chiefs in stopping the run.
In my opinion, the Raiders are the better team in here and the typical home court advantage of 3 points shouldn't apply in here and that's why I see enough value in the Raiders today
Single Dime Play on Oakland Raiders +3
Wunderdog
Game: New England at New York Jets (Sunday 9/20 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Jets +3.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
There was a lot to take in after watching the Patriots last week. Through nearly the entire game, the Bills beat them on both sides of the ball. Tom Brady looked very rusty for most of the game, uncharacteristically thowing off-target. Yet, the Pats found a way to win thanks to Brady brilliance in his final two drives. So which Brady, and which Pats team will show up here? Will it be the one that was soundly beaten for 3.75 quarters last week by an inferior team? Or will it be the team that found a way to win in the end? My guess is it will be something in-between. And, that may not be good enough against an inspired, motivated and talented Jets team that is coming into this one fired up and full of confidence. The Jets seem to have a star QB in the making in Sanchez, as he coolly converted 10 of 18 on third down. With Flacco and Ryan last year, and Sanchez this year, you can soundly throw out the notion that rookie QBs can't win and cover spreads in the NFL. The Patriots had trouble containing the run last week as they appear to miss Bruschi and Seymour. With Leon Washington and Thomas Jones toting, the Jets should be able to move the chains here. The bloom has come off the rose some for the Pats who are now 5-12 ATS after a straight up win, and the Jets find themselves covering a lot after holding an opponent to less than 150 passing yards as they follow that with a 22-9 ATS mark in their next game. These teams are much closer in talent than they have been for a long time. To get over a field goal on the home team is quite a gift as this is simply a reputation line. I'll take the Jets at home as a very live dog.
Game: Carolina at Atlanta (Sunday 9/20 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Carolina +6.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Last week's results for both of these teams are deceiving. On the surface, Atlanta's 12 point win over Miami (last year's darling) was viewed as reinforcement that the Falcons are for real. But, Atlanta should have a few concerns as they were given four Dolphins' turnovers at home and managed to produce just 19 points. Last week was very forgettable for the Panthers and especially Jake Delhomme. That game left Delhomme with nine INTs and two fumbles in his last two games counting the playoff debacle to end the season last year. But Carolina is not that bad and you just can't expect that kind of turnover fest to continue. Delhomme will focus on ball protection this game and without that many errors, the Panthers can be a very good team. They have a excellent rushing attack where the Falcons are vulnerable, so I'd expect to see a lot more of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart in this one. The problem last week was the Panthers mistakes made them play from behind, and the running back duo just didn't get enough touches. Delhomme will be thankful this one is on the road, so the boos don't fill the Stadium. And, he is 29-16 ATS in 45 road starts including 23-9 ATS as a dog. The Panthers are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games after being outrushed by 75+ yards. The Falcons have not been a good team in the second of back-to-back home games after a win. They stand at a miserable 2-17 ATS at immediately following a home win (1-12 ATS if the win was by double digits) and this is a game in which they can get caught with overconfidence after the Miami win and facing a team that was blown out by 28 points last week. Finally, this has been a road-oriented series, with the road team taking five of the last seven, and this is an overreaction to one week and too many points. I'll go with Carolina here.
Game: Oakland at Kansas City (Sunday 9/20 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Oakland +3 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
What used to be a battle for AFC supremacy has turned into a battle for the basement in the AFC West. How the once mighty have fallen. So, which team is finally getting off the mat? I'm not sure if either is, but if you look at the drafts and the progress, you would have to consider the Raiders a brighter prospect at this point, at least in the near term. The biggest improvement by the Raiders was seen on the offensive line in week one. The Chargers could not get any pressure on Jamarcus Russell and had just one sack, as Russell connected on several long passes. If he wasn't way off on a few others, he would have thrown at least one more touchdown. Darren McFadden and Michael Bush give the Raiders a ground game that should find room against the Chiefs, opening the door for Russell to strike long again as the Chiefs simply have no pass rush. Richard Seymour on the Oakland defensive line made a difference already as the Raiders were putting a lot of pressure on Phillip Rivers. The Chiefs are going to have a hard time moving the ball in this one. While KC used to rule at home, but the talent has left the building and so have the covers as they are just 4-11 ATS at home over their last 15 games. The Raiders have covered seven of nine games this decade as an underdog in KC. I think the Raiders are a much-improved team, and we are getting the better team here and points to go with it.
Game: St. Louis at Washington (Sunday 9/20 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on St. Louis +10 (-115) (risk 4 to win 3.5)
I know, I know. How can I back St. Louis here? Our lone loss from last week's seven picks was the Rams. And it was a bad loss - 28 to nothing. Well, these are the kinds of teams I back, so get used to it. Looking at the St. Louis offense in week one, it's easy to convince yourself that they won't win a game this season. They fell behind early and were forced to the air, and at that point the game was pretty much over. But last week's performance won't keep me from backing the Rams in what I think is a great situation this week. Thanks to that performance, they are getting double digits. I expect to see a lot of Stephen Jackson early this game to take the heat off of Bulger. Washington is off a huge divisional rivalry game vs. the Giants and have the Lions on deck. They probably feel like if they just show up they will be 2-1 after three weeks. For years, the Redskins have been a crummy team when they installed as a huge home favorite. I went all the way back to 1991 and found out the Skins have been a double-digit home chalk just 12 times. How often does a team lose in the NFL when they are favored by 10 or more? Well, the Redskins have done it 67% of the time! That's right, in eight of the twelve games in which they were a double-digit favorite, they lost straight up. In two others, they won by just a field goal. They have covered the large number just once in the last 15 years! The problem for Washington is that their offense has scored 17 or less points in nine of their last 12 games, and 13 or less in six of their last 10. The past history and recent offensive ineptness shows that it will be very difficult for this team to score enough to beat a big number.
Game: Cincinnati at Green Bay (Sunday 9/20 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cincinnati +9.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Yes, Cincinnati is bad. They somehow found a way to lose last week against Denver, despite owning a lead with under a minute to go. No one wants to touch this team after that debacle. And, the Packers, despite a rusty opener vs. Chicago, are still a public favorite. As a result, 73% of the public are backing Green Bay here, despite a lot of wood (9.5 points). While there's no arguing which is the better team here, this is the perfect set up for Cincinnati cover. When one side seems so obvious and your inner voice is telling you that you could never back the other side, that's the time to do it. I can just hear Joe Square right now: "Cincinnati is horrible. They couldn't even beat lowly Denver at home. Green Bay is a great team and Aaron Rodgers is going to feast here." Well, if it were that easy folks, big favorites in the NFL would win and cover every week. Ask the Patriots and the Chargers how that worked out for them last week. The fact is, Green Bay looked rusty last week. They still got us the win and cover, but they didn't dominate as expected. Green Bay actually had just 226 yards of offense and 26:57 time of possession. Without a +4 turnover advantage, the Packers lose that game and this line is set closer to 7 points. The Bengals actually dominated the Broncos, owning a seven minute time of possession advantage. Carson Palmer hit 64% of his passes. The defense essentially held the Broncos to 6 points before that late fluke play. I like the Bengals to find a way to keep this one under the very large number.
Game: Houston at Tennessee (Sunday 9/20 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Houston +7 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6)
The Houston Texans were uncharacteristically completely shutdown by the Jets last week. Their offense last year produced 21 points or more in 10 of their 16 games, and were a top-5 team in offensive yards. One of the teams that held Houston down last year was the Baltimore Ravens. That defense was of course lead by Rex Ryan who orchestrated last week's defensive beauty vs. the Texans. So, last week's offensive meltdown by Houston is at least somewhat explainable. The Texans did something against the Titans' defense last year that few teams were able to do, and that was to have their featured running back, Steve Slaton, gain over 100 yards in each of the two games. Assuming they can have running success again this weekend, that should open up Matt Schaub to some play-action passing. Without Albert Haynesworth clogging things up, I expect the Houston offense to score here. The Titans will find themselves in a flat spot here as they lost a tough game on the road in Pittsburgh as a big dog, and now come home in a completely opposite mode as a big favorite. The public sees a Titans team that was 13-3 a year ago and nearly won in Pittsburgh and a Houston team that laid an absolute egg last week, losing by 17 points as a favorite. They feel a Tennessee big win is in the cards. The public is all over Tennessee, yet this line has moved from the key number of 7 to 6.5 in many spots (although about half still offering 7). That tells you where the smart money is flowing. But, teams off a big upset loss tend to get fired up about it and come out swinging the next week. Houston was embarrassed and they will bring a much better effort this week. Gary Kubiak is 5-2 ATS as a divisional dog of up to seven, and the Texans were one of the three teams that beat the Titans a year ago. Under Jeff Fisher, the Titans are just 11-23 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. I look for Houston to get the cover here.
Game: Tampa Bay at Buffalo (Sunday 9/20 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Tampa Bay +5.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
The Bills must be experiencing a sense of déjà vu. Two years ago on a Monday night they were beating Dallas by eight points with 20 seconds to go. They watched Dallas score, miss the two-point conversion, but recover the onside kick, then kick the game-winning field goal as time expired. The final score was Dallas 25, Buffalo 24. Last week the unthinkable happened, as the Bills had what appeared to be a huge upset win, up by 11 with under two minutes left, but the final score read identical to the '07 game with Dallas - New England 25, Buffalo 24. So now they have to pick up the pieces from a devastating loss. They played very well in that game, but still lost and I think on the short week, they may have a hangover here. The Bucs lost to the Cowboys by 13, but the final game score was misleading. Tampa Bay ran all over the Cowboy defense, and Byron Leftwich passed all over it as well. The Bucs generated 26 first downs, had as many yards as Dallas, and had the time of possession edge as well. The problem was that Tony Romo connected on three back-breaking long passes plays of 80 yards, 66 and 42 yards. So Dallas deserved to win, but Tampa Bay did not play that badly. I look for the Bucs will seal the holes and I'm also sure that Trent Edwards does not have the same ability downfield as Romo. The Bucs are catching the Bills in a tough emotional spot and were much better than advertised in their opener, despite the results. I'll go with Tampa in this one as they have a decent shot at winning this game outright.
Game: New England at New York Jets (Sunday 9/20 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Jets +3.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
There was a lot to take in after watching the Patriots last week. Through nearly the entire game, the Bills beat them on both sides of the ball. Tom Brady looked very rusty for most of the game, uncharacteristically thowing off-target. Yet, the Pats found a way to win thanks to Brady brilliance in his final two drives. So which Brady, and which Pats team will show up here? Will it be the one that was soundly beaten for 3.75 quarters last week by an inferior team? Or will it be the team that found a way to win in the end? My guess is it will be something in-between. And, that may not be good enough against an inspired, motivated and talented Jets team that is coming into this one fired up and full of confidence. The Jets seem to have a star QB in the making in Sanchez, as he coolly converted 10 of 18 on third down. With Flacco and Ryan last year, and Sanchez this year, you can soundly throw out the notion that rookie QBs can't win and cover spreads in the NFL. The Patriots had trouble containing the run last week as they appear to miss Bruschi and Seymour. With Leon Washington and Thomas Jones toting, the Jets should be able to move the chains here. The bloom has come off the rose some for the Pats who are now 5-12 ATS after a straight up win, and the Jets find themselves covering a lot after holding an opponent to less than 150 passing yards as they follow that with a 22-9 ATS mark in their next game. These teams are much closer in talent than they have been for a long time. To get over a field goal on the home team is quite a gift as this is simply a reputation line. I'll take the Jets at home as a very live dog.
Game: Carolina at Atlanta (Sunday 9/20 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Carolina +6.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Last week's results for both of these teams are deceiving. On the surface, Atlanta's 12 point win over Miami (last year's darling) was viewed as reinforcement that the Falcons are for real. But, Atlanta should have a few concerns as they were given four Dolphins' turnovers at home and managed to produce just 19 points. Last week was very forgettable for the Panthers and especially Jake Delhomme. That game left Delhomme with nine INTs and two fumbles in his last two games counting the playoff debacle to end the season last year. But Carolina is not that bad and you just can't expect that kind of turnover fest to continue. Delhomme will focus on ball protection this game and without that many errors, the Panthers can be a very good team. They have a excellent rushing attack where the Falcons are vulnerable, so I'd expect to see a lot more of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart in this one. The problem last week was the Panthers mistakes made them play from behind, and the running back duo just didn't get enough touches. Delhomme will be thankful this one is on the road, so the boos don't fill the Stadium. And, he is 29-16 ATS in 45 road starts including 23-9 ATS as a dog. The Panthers are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games after being outrushed by 75+ yards. The Falcons have not been a good team in the second of back-to-back home games after a win. They stand at a miserable 2-17 ATS at immediately following a home win (1-12 ATS if the win was by double digits) and this is a game in which they can get caught with overconfidence after the Miami win and facing a team that was blown out by 28 points last week. Finally, this has been a road-oriented series, with the road team taking five of the last seven, and this is an overreaction to one week and too many points. I'll go with Carolina here.
Game: Oakland at Kansas City (Sunday 9/20 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Oakland +3 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
What used to be a battle for AFC supremacy has turned into a battle for the basement in the AFC West. How the once mighty have fallen. So, which team is finally getting off the mat? I'm not sure if either is, but if you look at the drafts and the progress, you would have to consider the Raiders a brighter prospect at this point, at least in the near term. The biggest improvement by the Raiders was seen on the offensive line in week one. The Chargers could not get any pressure on Jamarcus Russell and had just one sack, as Russell connected on several long passes. If he wasn't way off on a few others, he would have thrown at least one more touchdown. Darren McFadden and Michael Bush give the Raiders a ground game that should find room against the Chiefs, opening the door for Russell to strike long again as the Chiefs simply have no pass rush. Richard Seymour on the Oakland defensive line made a difference already as the Raiders were putting a lot of pressure on Phillip Rivers. The Chiefs are going to have a hard time moving the ball in this one. While KC used to rule at home, but the talent has left the building and so have the covers as they are just 4-11 ATS at home over their last 15 games. The Raiders have covered seven of nine games this decade as an underdog in KC. I think the Raiders are a much-improved team, and we are getting the better team here and points to go with it.
Game: St. Louis at Washington (Sunday 9/20 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on St. Louis +10 (-115) (risk 4 to win 3.5)
I know, I know. How can I back St. Louis here? Our lone loss from last week's seven picks was the Rams. And it was a bad loss - 28 to nothing. Well, these are the kinds of teams I back, so get used to it. Looking at the St. Louis offense in week one, it's easy to convince yourself that they won't win a game this season. They fell behind early and were forced to the air, and at that point the game was pretty much over. But last week's performance won't keep me from backing the Rams in what I think is a great situation this week. Thanks to that performance, they are getting double digits. I expect to see a lot of Stephen Jackson early this game to take the heat off of Bulger. Washington is off a huge divisional rivalry game vs. the Giants and have the Lions on deck. They probably feel like if they just show up they will be 2-1 after three weeks. For years, the Redskins have been a crummy team when they installed as a huge home favorite. I went all the way back to 1991 and found out the Skins have been a double-digit home chalk just 12 times. How often does a team lose in the NFL when they are favored by 10 or more? Well, the Redskins have done it 67% of the time! That's right, in eight of the twelve games in which they were a double-digit favorite, they lost straight up. In two others, they won by just a field goal. They have covered the large number just once in the last 15 years! The problem for Washington is that their offense has scored 17 or less points in nine of their last 12 games, and 13 or less in six of their last 10. The past history and recent offensive ineptness shows that it will be very difficult for this team to score enough to beat a big number.
Game: Cincinnati at Green Bay (Sunday 9/20 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cincinnati +9.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Yes, Cincinnati is bad. They somehow found a way to lose last week against Denver, despite owning a lead with under a minute to go. No one wants to touch this team after that debacle. And, the Packers, despite a rusty opener vs. Chicago, are still a public favorite. As a result, 73% of the public are backing Green Bay here, despite a lot of wood (9.5 points). While there's no arguing which is the better team here, this is the perfect set up for Cincinnati cover. When one side seems so obvious and your inner voice is telling you that you could never back the other side, that's the time to do it. I can just hear Joe Square right now: "Cincinnati is horrible. They couldn't even beat lowly Denver at home. Green Bay is a great team and Aaron Rodgers is going to feast here." Well, if it were that easy folks, big favorites in the NFL would win and cover every week. Ask the Patriots and the Chargers how that worked out for them last week. The fact is, Green Bay looked rusty last week. They still got us the win and cover, but they didn't dominate as expected. Green Bay actually had just 226 yards of offense and 26:57 time of possession. Without a +4 turnover advantage, the Packers lose that game and this line is set closer to 7 points. The Bengals actually dominated the Broncos, owning a seven minute time of possession advantage. Carson Palmer hit 64% of his passes. The defense essentially held the Broncos to 6 points before that late fluke play. I like the Bengals to find a way to keep this one under the very large number.
Game: Houston at Tennessee (Sunday 9/20 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Houston +7 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6)
The Houston Texans were uncharacteristically completely shutdown by the Jets last week. Their offense last year produced 21 points or more in 10 of their 16 games, and were a top-5 team in offensive yards. One of the teams that held Houston down last year was the Baltimore Ravens. That defense was of course lead by Rex Ryan who orchestrated last week's defensive beauty vs. the Texans. So, last week's offensive meltdown by Houston is at least somewhat explainable. The Texans did something against the Titans' defense last year that few teams were able to do, and that was to have their featured running back, Steve Slaton, gain over 100 yards in each of the two games. Assuming they can have running success again this weekend, that should open up Matt Schaub to some play-action passing. Without Albert Haynesworth clogging things up, I expect the Houston offense to score here. The Titans will find themselves in a flat spot here as they lost a tough game on the road in Pittsburgh as a big dog, and now come home in a completely opposite mode as a big favorite. The public sees a Titans team that was 13-3 a year ago and nearly won in Pittsburgh and a Houston team that laid an absolute egg last week, losing by 17 points as a favorite. They feel a Tennessee big win is in the cards. The public is all over Tennessee, yet this line has moved from the key number of 7 to 6.5 in many spots (although about half still offering 7). That tells you where the smart money is flowing. But, teams off a big upset loss tend to get fired up about it and come out swinging the next week. Houston was embarrassed and they will bring a much better effort this week. Gary Kubiak is 5-2 ATS as a divisional dog of up to seven, and the Texans were one of the three teams that beat the Titans a year ago. Under Jeff Fisher, the Titans are just 11-23 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. I look for Houston to get the cover here.
Game: Tampa Bay at Buffalo (Sunday 9/20 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Tampa Bay +5.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
The Bills must be experiencing a sense of déjà vu. Two years ago on a Monday night they were beating Dallas by eight points with 20 seconds to go. They watched Dallas score, miss the two-point conversion, but recover the onside kick, then kick the game-winning field goal as time expired. The final score was Dallas 25, Buffalo 24. Last week the unthinkable happened, as the Bills had what appeared to be a huge upset win, up by 11 with under two minutes left, but the final score read identical to the '07 game with Dallas - New England 25, Buffalo 24. So now they have to pick up the pieces from a devastating loss. They played very well in that game, but still lost and I think on the short week, they may have a hangover here. The Bucs lost to the Cowboys by 13, but the final game score was misleading. Tampa Bay ran all over the Cowboy defense, and Byron Leftwich passed all over it as well. The Bucs generated 26 first downs, had as many yards as Dallas, and had the time of possession edge as well. The problem was that Tony Romo connected on three back-breaking long passes plays of 80 yards, 66 and 42 yards. So Dallas deserved to win, but Tampa Bay did not play that badly. I look for the Bucs will seal the holes and I'm also sure that Trent Edwards does not have the same ability downfield as Romo. The Bucs are catching the Bills in a tough emotional spot and were much better than advertised in their opener, despite the results. I'll go with Tampa in this one as they have a decent shot at winning this game outright.
Leroy's Pro Challenge
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Selection</TH><TH># of Times Selected</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR><TD>RAIDERS +3.5</TD><TD>80</TD><TR><TD>CHIEFS -3.5</TD><TD>11</TD><TR><TD>OAK GM OV 38.5</TD><TD>3</TD><TR><TD>KC GM UN 38.5</TD><TD>8</TD><TR><TD>TEXANS +6.5</TD><TD>12</TD><TR><TD>TITANS -6.5</TD><TD>69</TD><TR><TD>HOU GM OV 40.5</TD><TD>6</TD><TR><TD>TEN GM UN 40.5</TD><TD>3</TD><TR><TD>PATRIOTS -3.5</TD><TD>47</TD><TR><TD>JETS +3.5</TD><TD>28</TD><TR><TD>NE GM OV 45.5</TD><TD>5</TD><TR><TD>NYJ GM UN 45.5</TD><TD>5</TD><TR><TD>BENGALS +9.5</TD><TD>34</TD><TR><TD>PACKERS -9.5</TD><TD>15</TD><TR><TD>CIN GM OV 42.5</TD><TD>4</TD><TR><TD>GB GM UN 42.5</TD><TD>3</TD><TR><TD>VIKINGS -9.5</TD><TD>29</TD><TR><TD>LIONS +9.5</TD><TD>12</TD><TR><TD>MIN GM OV 46.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TR><TD>DET GM UN 46.5</TD><TD>9</TD><TR><TD>SAINTS +1.5</TD><TD>63</TD><TR><TD>EAGLES -1.5</TD><TD>8</TD><TR><TD>NO GM OV 46.5</TD><TD>14</TD><TR><TD>PANTHERS +6.5</TD><TD>56</TD><TR><TD>FALCONS -6.5</TD><TD>32</TD><TR><TD>CAR GM OV 43.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TR><TD>ATL GM UN 43.5</TD><TD>9</TD><TR><TD>RAMS +9.5</TD><TD>12</TD><TR><TD>REDSKINS -9.5</TD><TD>27</TD><TR><TD>STL GM OV 36.5</TD><TD>5</TD><TR><TD>WAS GM UN 36.5</TD><TD>3</TD><TR><TD>CARDINALS +3.5</TD><TD>41</TD><TR><TD>JAGUARS -3.5</TD><TD>20</TD><TR><TD>AZ GM OV 42.5</TD><TD>8</TD><TR><TD>JAC GM UN 42.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TR><TD>SEAHAWKS +1.5</TD><TD>25</TD><TR><TD>49ERS -1.5</TD><TD>38</TD><TR><TD>SEA GM OV 39.5</TD><TD>2</TD><TR><TD>SF GM UN 39.5</TD><TD>2</TD><TR><TD>BUCS +4.5</TD><TD>16</TD><TR><TD>BILLS -4.5</TD><TD>22</TD><TR><TD>TB GM OV 41.5</TD><TD>6</TD><TR><TD>BUF GM UN 41.5</TD><TD>4</TD><TR><TD>BROWNS +3.5</TD><TD>37</TD><TR><TD>BRONCOS -3.5</TD><TD>10</TD><TR><TD>CLE GM OV 37.5</TD><TD>12</TD><TR><TD>DEN GM UN 37.5</TD><TD>3</TD><TR><TD>RAVENS +3.5</TD><TD>107</TD><TR><TD>CHARGERS -3.5</TD><TD>8</TD><TR><TD>BAL GM OV 40.5</TD><TD>7</TD><TR><TD>SD GM UN 40.5</TD><TD>6</TD><TR><TD>STEELERS -3.5</TD><TD>33</TD><TR><TD>BEARS +3.5</TD><TD>78</TD><TR><TD>PIT GM OV 37.5</TD><TD>9</TD><TR><TD>GIANTS +2.5</TD><TD>28</TD><TR><TD>COWBOYS -2.5</TD><TD>50</TD><TR><TD>NYG GM OV 43.5</TD><TD>13</TD><TR><TD>DAL GM UN 43.5</TD><TD>6</TD><TR><TD>COLTS -3.5</TD><TD>34</TD><TR><TD>DOLPHINS +3.5</TD><TD>31</TD><TR><TD>IND GM OV 42.5</TD><TD>3</TD><TR><TD>MIA GM UN 42.5</TD><TD>11</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Selection</TH><TH># of Times Selected</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR><TD>RAIDERS +3.5</TD><TD>80</TD><TR><TD>CHIEFS -3.5</TD><TD>11</TD><TR><TD>OAK GM OV 38.5</TD><TD>3</TD><TR><TD>KC GM UN 38.5</TD><TD>8</TD><TR><TD>TEXANS +6.5</TD><TD>12</TD><TR><TD>TITANS -6.5</TD><TD>69</TD><TR><TD>HOU GM OV 40.5</TD><TD>6</TD><TR><TD>TEN GM UN 40.5</TD><TD>3</TD><TR><TD>PATRIOTS -3.5</TD><TD>47</TD><TR><TD>JETS +3.5</TD><TD>28</TD><TR><TD>NE GM OV 45.5</TD><TD>5</TD><TR><TD>NYJ GM UN 45.5</TD><TD>5</TD><TR><TD>BENGALS +9.5</TD><TD>34</TD><TR><TD>PACKERS -9.5</TD><TD>15</TD><TR><TD>CIN GM OV 42.5</TD><TD>4</TD><TR><TD>GB GM UN 42.5</TD><TD>3</TD><TR><TD>VIKINGS -9.5</TD><TD>29</TD><TR><TD>LIONS +9.5</TD><TD>12</TD><TR><TD>MIN GM OV 46.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TR><TD>DET GM UN 46.5</TD><TD>9</TD><TR><TD>SAINTS +1.5</TD><TD>63</TD><TR><TD>EAGLES -1.5</TD><TD>8</TD><TR><TD>NO GM OV 46.5</TD><TD>14</TD><TR><TD>PANTHERS +6.5</TD><TD>56</TD><TR><TD>FALCONS -6.5</TD><TD>32</TD><TR><TD>CAR GM OV 43.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TR><TD>ATL GM UN 43.5</TD><TD>9</TD><TR><TD>RAMS +9.5</TD><TD>12</TD><TR><TD>REDSKINS -9.5</TD><TD>27</TD><TR><TD>STL GM OV 36.5</TD><TD>5</TD><TR><TD>WAS GM UN 36.5</TD><TD>3</TD><TR><TD>CARDINALS +3.5</TD><TD>41</TD><TR><TD>JAGUARS -3.5</TD><TD>20</TD><TR><TD>AZ GM OV 42.5</TD><TD>8</TD><TR><TD>JAC GM UN 42.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TR><TD>SEAHAWKS +1.5</TD><TD>25</TD><TR><TD>49ERS -1.5</TD><TD>38</TD><TR><TD>SEA GM OV 39.5</TD><TD>2</TD><TR><TD>SF GM UN 39.5</TD><TD>2</TD><TR><TD>BUCS +4.5</TD><TD>16</TD><TR><TD>BILLS -4.5</TD><TD>22</TD><TR><TD>TB GM OV 41.5</TD><TD>6</TD><TR><TD>BUF GM UN 41.5</TD><TD>4</TD><TR><TD>BROWNS +3.5</TD><TD>37</TD><TR><TD>BRONCOS -3.5</TD><TD>10</TD><TR><TD>CLE GM OV 37.5</TD><TD>12</TD><TR><TD>DEN GM UN 37.5</TD><TD>3</TD><TR><TD>RAVENS +3.5</TD><TD>107</TD><TR><TD>CHARGERS -3.5</TD><TD>8</TD><TR><TD>BAL GM OV 40.5</TD><TD>7</TD><TR><TD>SD GM UN 40.5</TD><TD>6</TD><TR><TD>STEELERS -3.5</TD><TD>33</TD><TR><TD>BEARS +3.5</TD><TD>78</TD><TR><TD>PIT GM OV 37.5</TD><TD>9</TD><TR><TD>GIANTS +2.5</TD><TD>28</TD><TR><TD>COWBOYS -2.5</TD><TD>50</TD><TR><TD>NYG GM OV 43.5</TD><TD>13</TD><TR><TD>DAL GM UN 43.5</TD><TD>6</TD><TR><TD>COLTS -3.5</TD><TD>34</TD><TR><TD>DOLPHINS +3.5</TD><TD>31</TD><TR><TD>IND GM OV 42.5</TD><TD>3</TD><TR><TD>MIA GM UN 42.5</TD><TD>11</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
