THE SPORTS ADVISORS
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 20
NFL
Oakland (0-1, 1-0 ATS) at Kansas City (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Raiders, looking stronger than expected in Week 1 after a preseason full of distractions, head to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Chiefs in a battle of longtime AFC West rivals.
Oakland played the Chargers close throughout the night Monday – taking a 20-17 lead late on a stunning 57-yard TD pass from JaMarcus Russell to Louis Murphy on fourth-and-14 – but couldn’t hold off an 89-yard San Diego drive in losing 24-20. However, the Raiders easily covered as a 10-point underdog. Russell (12 of 30, 208 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTS) was rather weak beyond the TD pass, but Oakland outgained San Diego 366-317 and allowed just 77 rushing yards, while piling up 148.
Kansas City was similarly surprising against Baltimore on Sunday, tying the game at 24 with 5:28 left before giving up two late TDs in losing 38-24 as a 13-point pup. QB Brodie Croyle (16 of 24, 177 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was steady in place of the injured Matt Cassel (knee), and the Chiefs hung around despite rushing for just 29 yards, getting dominated in total yards, 501-188. K.C. also got doubled in time of possession (39:49-20:11).
New Chiefs coach Todd Haley said Cassel’s status for this week will be a game-time decision.
These rivals split last year’s meetings SU and ATS, with visitor winning and cashing in both games, as Oakland took a 23-8 September win catching 3½ points and Kansas City won 20-13 in November as a three-point ‘dog. In fact, the road team is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this rivalry, and Oakland is 5-1 ATS on its last six trips to Arrowhead. The underdog has also cashed in the last four clashes.
The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a division road pup, but they are on pointspread skids of 6-20-2 getting three points or less, 4-9 after a spread-cover and 16-35-1 against losing teams. The Chiefs, who went a dismal 2-14 SU last year (8-8 ATS), are on a 5-0 ATS roll against division opponents, but they also carry a string of negative pointspread streaks, including 3-10 at home, 0-4 as a home chalk and 2-5 after a SU loss.
The over has hit in eight of Oakland’s last nine September starts and is on a 6-1 run at home for Kansas City. However, the under is on rolls of 7-2-1 for the Raiders after a SU loss, 12-4 for the Chiefs in September, 10-1 in Week 2 for Kansas City and 17-8 for the Chiefs in division play. Finally, the total has stayed low in seven of the last eight series meetings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Houston (0-1 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (0-1, 1-0 ATS)
The Titans, who went a league-best 13-3 last year, aim to regain that form when they play host to the division rival Texans at LP Field.
Tennessee gave defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh a fight on Sept. 10 – a Thursday game that served as the NFL’s opener – falling 13-10 in overtime but covering as a 6½-point road underdog. QB Kerry Collins (22 of 35, 244 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was fair, and the Titans got another 86 yards on the ground while holding the Steelers to a meager 36 yards rushing. The defense also picked off Ben Roethlisberger twice, but it allowed the Pittsburgh QB to complete 33 of 43 passes for 363 yards and a TD.
Houston got trounced by rookie QB Mark Sanchez and the Jets, losing 24-7 as a 4½-point home favorite last Sunday, with the defense generating the Texans’ only score on a Dominique Barber 48-yard fumble return in the fourth quarter. Houston allowed Sanchez to throw for 272 yards and a TD (1 INT) and gave up 190 rushing yards in getting outgained by a whopping 462-183 total. Matt Schaub struggled (18 of 33, 166 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT), and the running game generated just 38 yards.
These teams split their 2008 meetings, with the home team winning and covering, including a 31-12 Tennessee rout last September as a 4½-point favorite. The Titans are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six clashes, but the underdog is also on an 8-3 ATS roll in this rivalry.
The Titans are on positive pointspread streaks of 13-5 overall, 9-0 in September, 12-3 inside the AFC South, 11-3 after a SU loss and 9-4 after an ATS setback. The Texans are on ATS upticks of 6-2 overall, 4-0 as an underdog and 4-1 in division play, but they also carry negative ATS trends of 1-4 in September, 1-5 in Week 2 and 3-8 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points.
The under for Tennessee is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 10-2 in Week 2 and 7-2 in September, and the under is 6-1 in Houston’s last seven games. However, the over has hit in six of the Titans’ last eight home games, and the over for the Texans is on rolls of 6-1 in September, 20-8 in the division, 15-6-1 with Houston a pup and 12-5-1 on the road.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in five of the last six meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and OVER
New England (1-0, 0-1 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Patriots, who barely snuck out a Week 1 victory, head to East Rutherford, N.J., for an AFC East clash with the Jets and new coach Rex Ryan.
New England needed two late TDs – the second following an extremely fortuitous forced fumble on a kickoff return – to erase a 24-13 deficit and squeak past Buffalo 25-24 Monday night, never threatening to cover as an overwhelming 13-point chalk. QB Tom Brady, in his first regular-season start since wrecking his knee in Week 1 of 2008, started slow but ended up chucking the ball 53 times, completing a franchise-best 39 for 378 yards with two TDs and one INT. Both TDs went to TE Benjamin Watson in the waning minutes, and the Pats dominated in total yards (441-276) but rushed for just 73 yards.
New York gave Ryan a victory in his coaching debut, rolling over Houston 24-7 as a 4½-point road underdog. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez was solid, going 18 of 31 for 272 yards with one TD and one INT, and RBs Thomas Jones (107 yards) and Leon Washington (60 yards) paced a rushing attack that racked up 190 yards, while the Jets’ defense allowed just 183 total yards (38 rushing).
New England split SU and ATS with New York last year, winning 19-10 on the road as a one-point chalk in September and losing 34-31 in overtime laying three points at home in November. The Pats have cashed on 10 of their last 11 trips to the Meadowlands, and they are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall. The road team is also 21-7-1 ATS in the last 29 matchups.
The Patriots are on a 5-12 ATS purge following a SU win, but they are on nothing but positive ATS streaks from there, including 6-1 after a non-cover, 36-15-1 on the road, 23-9 as a road chalk and 36-17-1 in division play. The Jets are on ATS runs of 4-0 as a pup and 5-2 after a SU win, but they are in pointspread ruts of 1-5 overall, 1-4 at home and 2-5 as a home ‘dog.
The over for New England is on tears of 7-1 overall (all as a favorite), 5-1 after a SU win and 5-1 against the AFC. The over has also hit in four of New York’s last five home games, but the under for the Jets is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 as a home pup and 9-4-1 following a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND
Cincinnati (0-1 SU and ATS) at Green Bay (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Packers remain at home for a second straight week, welcoming the Bengals to Lambeau Field for a non-conference contest.
Green Bay fended off Chicago 21-15 Sunday night, narrowly covering as a 4½-point home favorite on a 50-yard TD pass from QB Aaron Rodgers to Greg Jennings, followed by a two-point conversion, with just 1:11 left in the game. Rodgers threw for 184 yards, and the Pack finished with just 226 total yards while allowing 352, but the Green Bay defense picked off Jay Cutler four times.
Cincinnati tumbled to Denver in shocking fashion in its opener Sunday, scoring a TD with 38 seconds left to take a 7-6 lead, only to lose 12-7 as a 4½-point chalk on a fluke tipped pass that Brandon Stokley turned into an 87-yard TD. Carson Palmer (21 of 33, 247 yards) generated little offense until the late TD drive and threw two INTs for the only turnovers of the game.
These squads have met just once this decade in a meaningful game, with Cincy winning 21-14 and Green Bay cashing as a 9½-point pup in 2005.
The Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven starts, but they sport positive pointspread trends of 8-2 in September, 14-6 following a SU win and 15-7 after a spread-cover. On the flip side, the Bengals are on ATS slides of 5-10-1 on the road (1-4 last five), 1-4 in September and 2-5 after a SU loss. However, Cincy is 5-0 ATS in its last five as a non-conference road pup.
The under is on a 4-1 run for Green Bay, but the over for the Pack is on stretches of 10-2 after a SU win, 18-4 after a spread-cover, 13-4 with Green Bay favored and 10-4 at Lambeau. The under is on a bundle of rolls for Cincinnati, including 5-0 overall, 5-1 in September, 4-1 on the road and 10-4-1 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
Minnesota (1-0 SU and ATS) at Detroit (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Adrian Peterson-Brett Favre show remains on the road this week when the Vikings travel to Ford Field for a meeting with the Lions, who haven’t won a game since 2007.
Minnesota opened the Favre era with a 34-20 victory at Cleveland as a four-point favorite Sunday, mostly on the back of Peterson, who racked up 180 yards and three TDs on 25 carries, including a 64-yard fourth-quarter jaunt that put the game away. Favre (14 of 21, 110 yards, 1 TD) didn’t do much, but neither did he turn the ball over, while the Browns had two turnovers.
Detroit, which hasn’t won since the second-to-last week of the 2007 season, couldn’t keep up with New Orleans in a 45-27 road loss Sunday as a 14-point underdog. Rookie QB Matt Stafford (16 of 37, 205 yards) got a rude welcome to the league, with three INTs and no TDs, and the Lions were outgained 515-231 in losing their 18th consecutive game (7-11 ATS).
Detroit covered in both meetings in this rivalry last season, catching double digits both times. At home in December, Detroit gave up 10 fourth-quarter points in losing 20-16, but cashed as a 10½-point pup. Prior to last year, Minnesota had been on a 5-0-1 ATS run against the Lions.
The Vikings are on a 7-3 ATS uptick as a chalk of 3½ to 10 points, but they are on pointspread skids of 2-10 after a SU win, 1-6 after a spread-cover, 1-6 in division play, 2-8 against the NFC and 2-5 against losing teams. Also, Favre is just 5-11 ATS in his 16 career starts in Detroit.
The Lions, who are a putrid 1-24 SU (8-17 ATS) in their last 25 starts, are on pointspread declines of 0-4 in September, 1-8 at home and 6-13 against the NFC, though they’ve cashed in their last four NFC North contests and are on a 5-1 ATS run following a non-cover. Detroit is also 11-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games catching double digits.
The under for Minnesota is on rolls of 25-9-1 after an ATS win, 4-1 against NFC foes and 5-1-1 with the Vikes a road favorite, and both of last year’s meetings with the Lions styaed low. But the over has hit in seven of Minnesota’s last nine roadies, and the over for Detroit is on tears of 19-7-1 overall, 10-1-1 against winning teams, 21-8-1 with the Lions as a ‘dog and 7-3-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
New Orleans (1-0 SU and ATS) at Philadelphia (1-0 SU and ATS)
The high-octane Saints march into Lincoln Financial Field to take on the Eagles, who will likely be without QB Donovan McNabb.
New Orleans rolled up 515 yards of offense in a 45-27 win over Detroit on Sunday as a 14-point home chalk. QB Drew Brees picked up where he left off in 2008, completing 26 of 34 passes for 358 yards and an eye-popping six TDs, with one INT, and RB Mike Bell rushed for 143 yards. The Saints lost two of three fumbles, but the defense made up for it by picking off Lions rookie QB Matt Stafford three times.
Philadelphia rolled Carolina 38-10 giving one point on the road Sunday, in large part due to its defense forcing six turnovers, including four INTs and a fumble (returned for a TD) from Panthers QB Jake Delhomme. McNabb suffered a cracked rib on a 3-yard TD run in the third quarter – the last score of the game for either team – and probably will sit this game out against the Saints, meaning Kevin Kolb will get the start. Michael Vick can’t play until next week, and Philly signed former Eagle Jeff Garcia this week as a backup.
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS (4-2 SU) in the last six clashes of this rivalry, including a 38-23 victory in December 2007 as a three-point road pup. However, the underdog has cashed in five of the last six meetings.
The Saints are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win, but they are otherwise on pointspread upswings of 6-1-1 overall, 5-1-1 against the NFC and 11-5-1 in non-division road games. Likewise, the Eagles are on ATS rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 in September and 4-1 at the Linc.
New Orleans is on a boatload of “over” streaks, including 19-7-1 overall, 4-0-1 in September, 21-6-1 against NFC foes and a lengthy 44-20-2 against winning teams. The over is also 24-11-1 in Philadelphia’s last 36 games against winning squads, and in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in the last four meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Carolina (0-1 SU and ATS) at Atlanta (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Panthers, coming off a dismal Week 1 showing at home, head south to face the division rival Falcons at the Georgia Dome.
Carolina got drubbed by Philadelphia 38-10 Sunday as a one-point home ‘dog, mostly due to six turnovers, including four INTs and a lost fumble from QB Jake Delhomme – with the fumble returned for a touchdown. Delhomme (7 of 17, 73 yards) led an offense that mustered just 169 total yards, and the Panthers allowed two TD drives of less than 10 yards and gave up a punt-return for a score.
Delhomme will start this week, despite committing 11 turnovers (9 INTs, 2 fumbles) in his last two meaningful starts, including five INTs and a fumble in a playoff loss to Arizona last season.
The Falcons earned a 19-7 home win over Miami on Sunday as a four-point chalk, behind a clean game from QB Matt Ryan (22 of 36, 229 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) and a defense that produced an INT and recovered three Dolphins fumbles. In fact, Miami didn’t get on the board until late in the fourth quarter.
Carolina has split its last four meetings with Atlanta SU and ATS, though the Falcons rolled 45-28 as a one-point home favorite last November. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests, but Atlanta is on an 8-3-2 ATS tear at the Georgia Dome in this rivalry.
The Panthers are on ATS runs of 8-1 after a SU loss, 7-2 after a pointspread setback and 5-2 in NFC South action, but they have cashed in just one of their last six road games. The Falcons are on ATS slides of 2-7 in division play and 1-4 against the NFC, but they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 at home.
The over has hit in four of the last five contests between these teams. In addition, the over for Carolina is on rolls of 7-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 8-1 against the NFC and 6-2 in the underdog role, and the over for Atlanta is on surges of 9-4 at home and 5-2 against NFC foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
St. Louis (0-1 SU and ATS) at Washington (0-1, 1-0 ATS)
The Redskins look to get their 2009 campaign on track when they welcome the Rams to FedEx Field.
Washington fell behind 17-0 against the Giants last Sunday and couldn’t climb all the way back, but a late TD gave the Redskins the cover as a 6½-point ‘dog in a 23-17 road loss. Jason Campbell (19 of 26, 211 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was fair, but Washington lost the time-of-possession battle by more than 12 minutes.
St. Louis was hardly competitive last Sunday in Seattle, falling 28-0 as a seven-point underdog for its 11th consecutive loss (4-7 SU). QB Marc Bulger got little return on his 36 pass attempts, completing 17 for just 191 yards, though he had no INTs. The Rams finished with just 247 total yards, while allowing 446, and they failed to take advantage of two INTs from Matt Hasselbeck.
St. Louis won only two games last season, but the first was a 19-17 road upset of Washington as a heavy 12-point pup in October. The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this rivalry, with the underdog also 6-2 ATS in that same stretch.
The Redskins are on spread-covering slides of 2-5-2 overall, 1-5 at FedEx Field, 1-4-1 laying points and 3-12-3 against losing teams, though they’ve gone 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 against NFC foes, and they’ve cashed in four straight September outings. The Rams, who upset Dallas a week after last season’s win over the ‘Skins but haven’t won since, are stuck in pointspread ruts of 6-14 overall, 6-21-1 in September, 6-14 as a ‘dog and 1-4 on the road.
The under for Washington is on tears of 10-2-1 overall, 7-0 at home, 6-1 after a SU loss and 11-5-1 in September, while the under for St. Louis is on stretches of 5-1-1 overall (all as an underdog) and 9-3 in September. Finally, the under has hit in four of the last five in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON and UNDER
Arizona (0-1 SU and ATS) at Jacksonville (0-1, 1-0 ATS)
The defending NFC champion Cardinals aim to get in the win column when they make the long trip to Jacksonville Municipal Stadium to take on the Jaguars.
Arizona got off to a sluggish start last week against San Francisco, losing 20-16 as a 5½-point home chalk. QB Kurt Warner (26 of 44, 288 yards) had one TD pass offset by a pair of INTs, and the Cards ran for just 40 yards. Arizona finished with 299 yards and only allowed 203, yet came up short.
Jacksonville hung around at Indianapolis but couldn’t convert a potential tying 2-point conversion early in the fourth quarter, and neither team scored the rest of the way as the Jags fell 14-12 as a 6½-point underdog. QB David Garrard was less than pedestrian, going 14 of 28 for just 122 yards, and Jacksonville finished with 228 total yards while allowing 365. RB Maurice Jones-Drew had a solid day, with 21 carries for 97 yards (4.6 ypc) and a TD.
These two units have met just twice since 2000, with Jacksonville winning and covering both times, most recently in a 24-17 road win as a 3½-point favorite in 2005.
The Cardinals cashed in five straight games – including the Super Bowl loss to the Steelers – before falling short in the season opener, but they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a road ‘dog, and they went 0-5 ATS on the East Coast last year. The Jaguars are on several ATS slides, as well, including 2-6 overall, 1-7 at home, 0-5 as a home chalk and 2-5 against losing teams.
Arizona is on “over” streaks of 35-16 overall, 38-16 on the highway and 38-16 against losing teams. On the flip side, Jacksonville is on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss and 7-3 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Seattle (1-0 SU and ATS) at San Francisco (1-0 SU and ATS)
Two teams that appear poised to challenge Arizona for the NFC West title square off when the Seahawks fly down the coast to Candlestick Park to face the 49ers.
Seattle, coming off a 4-12 season, thumped St. Louis 28-0 as a seven-point home favorite last week. QB Matt Hasselbeck, back after an injury-filled 2008, was a little shaky with two INTs, but he finished 25 of 36 for 279 yards and three TDs. RB Julius Jones (117 yards, 1 TD) led a rushing attack that picked up 167 yards as the Seahawks outgained the Rams 446-247.
San Francisco knocked off defending NFC champ Arizona 20-16 getting 5½ points on the road, with Shaun Hill’s short TD pass to Frank Gore midway through the fourth quarter accounting for the winning score. Hill (18 of 31, 209 yards, 1 TD) wasn’t flashy, but he didn’t make any mistakes, and the Niners got the win despite gaining just 203 total yards, while allowing 299.
Seattle is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings in this rivalry, including a 34-13 road rout last October as a five-point ‘dog. The Seahawks are 5-2 ATS on their last seven trips to Candlestick, and the visitor has cashed in four of the last five clashes overall.
The Seahawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win, but they are otherwise on ATS upswings of 4-1 overall, 9-3 in division play and 15-7 in September. The 49ers are on pointspread runs of 4-1-1 overall and 4-1-1 against winning teams, but they are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 against NFC foes and 1-5-1 ATS in their last six division tilts.
For Seattle, the under is on streaks of 7-2-1 overall, 5-1-1 against the NFC and 6-2 as a road pup, and the under has hit in five of the last six for San Francisco. However, the over for the 49ers is on rolls of 5-1 at home and 10-3 with the Niners favored. The total also went high in both of last year’s meetings between these two, after a four-game “under” run.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE
Tampa Bay (0-1 SU and ATS) at Buffalo (0-1, 1-0 ATS)
The Bills, who fell just short of a huge upset in the season opener, return home to Ralph Wilson Stadium to take on the Buccaneers.
Buffalo had host New England on the ropes Monday night, leading 24-13 late in the fourth quarter. But they gave up a Tom Brady TD pass with just over two minutes left, then fumbled the ensuing kick, leading to another Brady TD pass and a 25-24 loss as a huge 13-point underdog. QB Trent Edwards was an efficient 15 of 25 for 212 yards and two TDs, with no INTs, and the Bills returned a Brady INT for a score. Buffalo led almost the entire game, despite getting outgained 441-276 and losing the time-of-possession battle by more than 14 minutes.
Tampa Bay tumbled to Dallas 34-21 as a 4½-point home pup Sunday, allowing Tony Romo to throw for 353 yards and three TDs. Byron Leftwich (25 of 41, 276 yards, 1 TD) led a Bucs offense that actually put up good numbers, with Cadillac Williams (97 yards) and Derek Ward (62 yards) leading a running attack that gained 174 yards. Tampa finished with 450 yards while allowing 462, and neither team had a turnover.
These squads have met just twice in the last 10 years, with Tampa going 2-0 SU and ATS, including a 19-3 home win giving three points in 2005.
The Bills are 2-9 SU and 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games, including 0-5 SU and ATS at home, and they are on further pointspread skids of 1-5 after a spread-cover and 1-4 as a favorite. But Buffalo also carries positive ATS streaks of 5-1 in September, 4-1 after a SU loss and 24-7-1 against losing teams. In addition, the Bills are on a 14-3 ATS firestorm following games against the Patriots.
The Bucs, meanwhile, are 6-2 ATS in their last eight September starts, but they are 0-5 SU (1-4 ATS) in their last five outings overall and are on further pointspread dips of 1-5 overall, 1-6 against losing teams, 1-4 after a SU loss and 6-19 in non-division road games.
The under is 4-1-1 in Buffalo’s last six home games, but otherwise the team is on “over” runs of 5-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 in September. The over for Tampa is on tears of 4-1 overall, 10-1 against losing teams and 9-3 on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO
Cleveland (0-1 SU and ATS) at Denver (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Broncos, coming off a miraculous victory to open the year, play their first home game under coach Josh McDaniels when they host the Browns at Invesco Field.
Denver beat Cincinnati 12-7 last Sunday as a 4½-point chalk, giving up a TD with 38 seconds left to fall behind 7-6, then winning when a Kyle Orton pass was deflected to Brandon Stokley, who turned it into a shocking 87-yard TD. In a game of two offensively challenged teams, Orton (17 of 28, 243 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was steady, while the Broncos’ defense picked off Carson Palmer twice. Matt Prater also nailed field goals of 48 and 50 yards for Denver.
Cleveland got dumped by Minnesota 34-20 as a four-point home ‘dog, giving up 24 unanswered points after taking a 13-10 lead late in the first half on a Josh Cribbs 67-yard punt return. The Browns kept Brett Favre (14 of 21, 110 yards, 1 TD) in check, but let RB Adrian Peterson run wild for 180 yards and three TDs, including a 64-yard jaunt. Cleveland QB Brady Quinn (21 of 35, 205 yards, 1 TD) threw an INT and lost a fumble as new coach Eric Mangini lost his debut.
Denver rallied for 21 fourth-quarter points behind QB Jay Cutler – now with the Bears – for a 34-30 victory at Cleveland as a three-point pup last November. In four meetings with the Browns since 2000, the Broncos are 3-1 SU and ATS.
Denver halted an 0-3 SU and ATS skid by beating Cincinnati, but it remains one of the worst teams in the league against the number, carrying ATS slides of 11-29-1 overall, 7-20-1 at Mile High, 8-21-1 against AFC opponents and 5-16-1 against losing teams. Likewise, the Browns are on ATS purges of 0-6-1 overall, 0-5 after a SU loss, 0-4 after a non-cover and 0-4 as an underdog.
Denver is on “over” streaks of 7-1 in September and 16-7-1 against the AFC, but the under has been the play in five of its last six home games and is on further rolls of 6-0 after a SU win and 4-0 after a spread-cover. For Cleveland, the under is on streaks of 15-7-1 overall, 4-1 against the AFC and 7-3-1 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
Baltimore (1-0 SU and ATS) at San Diego (1-0, 0-1 ATS)
The Ravens make the cross-country trek to Qualcomm Stadium to face the Chargers in a meeting of two playoff teams from 2008.
Baltimore, which reached the AFC title game last season, struggled to shake lowly Kansas City last Sunday, needing two touchdowns in the final three minutes to claim a 38-24 victory as a hefty 13-point chalk. QB Joe Flacco (26 of 43, 307 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a strong effort, and the Ravens rushed for 198 yards – while allowing just 29 on the ground – en route to outgaining the Chiefs by a whopping 501-188 margin.
San Diego had an even more difficult time finishing off Oakland on Monday night, needing an 89-yard TD drive to secure a 24-20 road win, though the Chargers fell far short of covering as a 10-point favorite. QB Philip Rivers (24 of 36, 252 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was average until the last drive, and San Diego was outgained 366-317, but the defense forced three turnovers (two INTs, one fumble recovery).
The Chargers will be without RB LaDainian Tomlinson (ankle injury).
The last meeting between these two resulted in a 32-14 victory for San Diego as a nine-point home chalk in November 2007, ending a 3-0 SU and ATS run by Baltimore in this rivalry. The host is 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes, the favorite is on a 5-1 ATS surge, and the Ravens are 1-4 ATS on their last five visits to Qualcomm.
The Ravens, who tied for the league lead at 12-4 ATS last season, are on spread-covering sprees of 16-5 overall, 4-0 in September, 9-2 against the AFC, 4-1 on the road and 5-2 getting points. However, Baltimore is 0-4 ATS on its last four West Coast trips.
The Chargers are on ATS skids of 2-6 laying points and 2-5-1 in September, but they carry positive pointspread streaks of 12-4 at home (10-4 as a home chalk), 19-8-1 against AFC foes and 9-4-1 against winning teams. San Diego is also 10-5 ATS in its last 15 non-division home starts.
The over for Baltimore is on runs of 5-1-1 with the Ravens a ‘dog, 6-2-1 on the highway and 15-7 against the AFC, while the over for San Diego is on rolls of 5-1 overall and 8-0 in September. However, the under is 5-1-1 in the Chargers’ last seven home games, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
Pittsburgh (1-0, 0-1 ATS) at Chicago (0-1 SU and ATS)
The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers, coming off an extended break, invade Soldier Field to take on the Bears in a non-conference clash.
Pittsburgh needed overtime to get past Tennessee in a Thursday night contest Sept. 10, winning 13-10 but failing to beat the 6½-point spread. Ben Roethlisberger (33 of 43, 363 yards, 1 TD) had good numbers but also threw a pair of INTs, and the Steelers’ ground game produced a measly 36 yards. Pittsburgh made up for that with an eight-minute edge in time of possession, driving for the field goal on the opening possession of OT.
QB Jay Cutler had a disastrous debut with Chicago, throwing a career-worst four INTs in a 21-15 Sunday night road loss to Green Bay. The Bears nearly cashed, though, as Green Bay needed a two-point conversion on a late TD to cover the 4½-point spread. Cutler finished 17 of 36 for 277 yards and a TD, and the Bears outgained the Packers 352-226, but they couldn’t overcome their quarterback’s turnovers.
Pittsburgh posted a 21-9 home victory laying 6½ points against Chicago in December 2005, the only meeting between these two in the past 10 years.
The Steelers have failed to cash in four straight September starts and are on further ATS skids of 1-4 as a road favorite and 7-19-1 giving three points or less, though they’ve covered in seven of their last 10 overall, five of seven on the road and eight of 11 versus the NFC.
The Bears are on ATS upticks of 4-1 after a SU loss and 9-4 after a non-cover, but they carry negative pointspread streaks of 1-4-1 overall, 0-5 as a pup, 2-7-1 in September and 4-9-2 against winning teams.
The over for Pittsburgh is on runs of 5-2 on the road, 5-1 with the Steelers as a road chalk and 4-1 after a SU win, and the over is 20-8 in Chicago’s last 28 games at Soldier Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
N.Y. Giants (1-0 SU and ATS) at Dallas (1-0 SU and ATS)
For the second straight week, the Giants face an NFC East rival as they travel to take on the Cowboys, with Dallas’ glitzy new stadium featured in the Sunday night matchup.
New York jumped out to a 17-0 lead against Washington last week and was never really threatened in a 23-17 victory, but a late Redskins TD kept the Giants from covering as a 6½-point home chalk. Eli Manning (20 of 29, 256 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was steady for an offense that netted 351 yards and posted a 12-minute time-of-possession edge, while New York’s defense allowed just 272 total yards.
Dallas got it going in the second half at Tampa Bay last week, rolling to a 34-21 victory as a 4½-point favorite. Tony Romo was an efficient 16 of 27 for 353 yards and three long TDs as the Cowboys had no turnovers and racked up 462 yards of total offense. However, the Pokes also allowed 450 yards, including 174 on the ground.
The host won and covered in the two meetings last year between New York and Dallas, with the Giants rolling 35-14 as a 9½-point chalk in November and the Cowboys returning the favor in a 20-8 win giving three points in December. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes in this rivalry.
The Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last four division contests, but they are on nothing but positive pointspread streaks from there, including 20-7 overall, 21-6 on the highway, 9-1 as an underdog (with the lone non-cover as a ‘dog coming at Dallas) and 16-5 against winning teams. The Cowboys are on ATS rolls of 6-1 as a chalk, 7-0-1 laying three points or less, 8-2 in September and 4-1 at home, but they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 NFC East tilts and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 against winning teams.
The under is 10-4 in the last 14 Giants-Cowboys battles in Dallas, and the under for New York is on tears of 5-2 overall, 4-1 in division play, 13-6 on the highway and 8-2 with the Giants a road pup. The over for Dallas is on upswings of 6-2 after a SU win, 19-7-2 after a spread-cover and 8-3-1 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
