Service Plays Saturday 9/20/08

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East Carolina -7 over North Carolina State* (Saturday)
We went against ECU last weekend and were rewarded with a cover. The Pirates were in a perfect position to play less than their best against Tulane. The Green Wave put a scare into the Pirates and let them know that winning cannot be taken for granted. We expect East Carolina to come out and destroy a rather pitiful NC State squad that looks pretty hopeless on offense.

Iowa/Pittsburgh* UNDER 41.5 (Saturday)
Here are two teams that depend on their defenses to win games. While the offenses in this game should struggle, both stop units should have success keeping the score down. Always nice to find a totals play where neither offense has shown much punch and both defenses have been reliable.

Alabama -9.5 over Arkansas* (Saturday)
Arkansas has won two unimpressive games so far. Slipping past the likes of Western Illinois and UL-Monroe by a combined total of 5 points hardly suggests that the Razorbacks are ready for SEC competition. Coach Petrino will need great success through the air in this one, as the Alabama run defense is very strong. We expect Alabama to win convincingly and cover here, as Arkansas appears to have a long way to go.

Tulane* -6 over UL-Monroe (Saturday)
We suspect that Tulane is sneaky good. This is a team that is 0-2, but has given a good accounting of themselves against two ranked opponents. The Green Wave defense has been the main reason for keeping Tulane in both games. The obvious drop in competition this week suggests to us that Tulane is ready to bust into the win column with enthusiasm. ULM has problems on defense and should give Tulane an opportunity to score plenty of points this week.

Boise State +10.5 over Oregon* (Saturday)
This is an injury play. The Ducks are down to third string QB Masoli for this game. Boise State has a decent defense and should make this game very competitive. The Ducks were magnificent offensively in their first two games but started slowly last week at Purdue. An OT injury to backup QB Roper has left Oregon inexperienced at the position and in danger of actually dropping this game outright.

LSU -2.5 over Auburn* (Saturday)
Hard to believe that Auburn beat Mississippi State by a 3-2 score last week. The oddball result gave us the feeling that Auburn's mistake-prone offensive unit will be in trouble this week against an opponent that is far more capable than MSU on offense. Unless Auburn can learn to hang onto the ball (8 fumbles in their first two outings), they will have a hard time matching the offensive output of LSU.
 

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(6) LSU (2-0, 0-1 ATS) at (10) Auburn (3-0, 1-2 ATS)

LSU goes into Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn looking to score a win there for the first time in 10 years when two SEC-title contenders square off in this key conference matchup.

LSU has opened the season with two easy wins, beating Appalachian State 41-13 in a non-lined game in the opener and then topping North Texas 41-3 a week ago but failing to cover the 42?-point spread. LSU?s power rushing game has done the job with junior Charles Scott leading the way with 262 yards and four TDs this season, averaging 11.4 yards per carry. The offense put up 425 total yards on North Texas last week, led by Scott?s 102 yards on seven carries.

Auburn specializes in defense and has allowed just 13 points in three games, not counting a safety allowed by the offense in last week?s 3-2 win at Mississippi State, with the Tigers failing to cover as a 10-point road favorite. In addition to keeping teams off the scoreboard, Tommy Tuberville?s defense is allowing just 53 rushing ypg and held the Bulldogs without a third-down conversion in 14 tries. Despite failing to get into the end zone, Auburn?s offense was decent last week, with QB Chris Todd throwing for 154 yards and RB Ben Tate gaining 92 yards on 20 carries.

The home team has dominated this series, winning each of the last eight meetings (5-2-1 ATS). The last time the visitor scored a win was in 1999 when Auburn went to LSU and got a 41-7 victory the year after LSU prevailed 31-19 at Jordan-Hare as a six-point favorite. Last year was the highest-scoring meeting between these two in more than a decade, when LSU won 30-24 but failed to cover as a 10?-point home chalk.

It?s been tough going for LSU at the betting window, as Les Miles? team is currently on ATS slides of 4-8-1 overall, 2-6-1 on the highway the last two years, 1-6-1 in SEC play and 3-7 after a straight-up win. Auburn is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine September games, but it is 7-2 ATS in its last nine against winning teams.

The under is 4-0 in LSU?s last four September affaris, but otherwise for the team, the over is on streaks of 8-2 overall, 6-1 in SEC action and 6-1 on the highway. Meanwhile, Auburn has a bevy of under streaks, including 8-2 in SEC play, 5-0 overall, 5-0 at home and 4-1 in September.

Finally, the under had cashed in seven consecutive head-to-head meetings between these rivals before last year?s game soared over the total. Still, the under is 4-0 in the last four meetings at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

ATS ADVANTAGE: AUBURN and UNDER





(9) Alabama (2-0, 2-1 ATS) at Arkansas (2-0, 0-1 ATS)

The Crimson Tide will try to make it four in a row to open the season when they travel to Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville for an SEC matchup with Arkansas.

Alabama has hardly been tested so far this season, beginning with a 34-10 upset in a neutral-site game against Clemson as a four-point ?dog. A week ago, the Tide rolled over Western Kentucky 41-7 as a 26-point home chalk, racking up 557 yards of offense, led by QB John Parker Wilson who threw for 215 yards and two TDs to become the school?s all-time leader in total offense with 6,321 yards. Nick Saban?s defense has also been strong, topping the nation in rush defense, allowing just 42.7 ypg on the ground and 1.9 yards per carry.

Arkansas is lucky to be 2-0 at this point, with narrow wins over Western Illinois 28-24 in a non-lined opening game and then pulling out a 28-27 home win over Louisiana-Monroe back on Sept. 6 as a 14-point favorite. New coach Bobby Petrino?s club needed a TD pass from QB Casey Dick with 1:22 left to get the win over Louisiana-Monroe. Dick has had to carry the offense for the Razorbacks, throwing for 641 yards, two TDs and an INT.

The Crimson Tide scored a 41-38 win over Arkansas last season, surviving after twice blowing a 21-point lead, but failing to cover as 3?-point home favorites. The host has won eight of the last 10 matchups (5-5 ATS) but the visitor (and underdog) has gotten the cash in the last three. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and three of the last five games have been decided either in the final seconds or in overtime, including the most recent clash in Fayetteville in 2006, when Arkansas prevailed 24-23 in OT as a 2?-point chalk.

Alabama is on ATS slides of 4-10 overall, 1-4 on the road, 1-4 in September, 6-20 as a favorite, 1-6 against teams with a winning record, 1-6 in SEC matchups and 0-5 after a spread-cover. Conversely, Arkansas is on ATS streaks of 4-1 in SEC games, 4-1 after a bye week and 4-0 coming off a non-cover, but the Hogs are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine September kickoffs.

The under is 5-2 in Alabama?s last seven overall, 5-1 in its last six on the road and 17-8 in its last 25 against teams with a winning record, but the over is 5-2 for the Crimson Tide in their last seven SEC games. For Arkansas, the over is on runs of 5-2 overall, 7-3 in SEC play, 6-0 in September and 4-0 at home.

In this rivalry, the over has cashed seven of the last 10 matchups.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARKANSAS and OVER





Virginia Tech (2-1, 0-2 ATS) at North Carolina (2-0, 1-0 ATS)

The Hokies will try to make it five in a row over North Carolina when they visit Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill for an ACC showdown.

Virginia Tech has rebounded from an opening-season 27-22 upset loss at East Carolina, beating Furman 24-7 in an unlined contest two weeks ago and edging Georgia Tech 20-17 last Saturday, but coming up short as a 6?-point favorite. Virginia Tech has been running-back-by-committee this season, with redshirt freshman Darren Evans leading the way so far with 203 yards and three TDs.

North Carolina is coming off an impressive 44-12 rout at Rutgers back on Sept. 11, cashing as 5?-point road ?dog. It was the first time the Tar Heels won a game outside the state of North Carolina since 2002, and they did it with defense, intercepting four passes, one of which was returned for a touchdown. North Carolina QB T.J. Yates is averaging 221 passing ypg and has thrown five TDs and just one INT, and his favorite target is speedster WR Brandon Tate who has 231 yards on just eight catches.

The Hokies have won four straight (2-2 ATS) over North Carolina, including last year?s 17-10 home win, though the Heels covered easily as an 18?-point underdog. Last time these two squared off at Chapel Hill in 2006, Virginia Tech routed the Heels 35-10 as a 13-point road favorite.

Virginia Tech has now failed to cover in seven straight September games, but otherwise the ATS trends are all positive for Frank Beamer?s troops, including 23-7 in ACC games, 17-5 on the road, 6-0 in ACC road games and 9-4 following a non-cover. The Tar Heels are on ATS streaks of 6-2 at home and 4-1 against winning teams.

The over is 6-2 in the Hokies last eight road games, but the under is 4-1 in their last five September games and 5-2 in their last seven against winning teams. The under is also 5-1-1 in the Tar Heels last seven at home and 5-2 in their last seven against winning teams. The under is also 3-1 in the last four in this series.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER





Iowa (3-0, 1-1 ATS) at Pittsburgh (1-1, 0-2 ATS)

Iowa takes its dominating defense to Heinz Field in Pittsburgh to take on the Panthers in a non-conference game.

The Hawkeyes have not allowed a touchdown this season, surrendering just six points in three games. Last week, the defense held rival Iowa State to a field goal in a 17-5 win, but the offense intentionally gave up a safety late in the contest to cost Iowa the cover as a 13-point home favorite. That win came on the heels of two blowout victories over Maine and Florida International by the combined score 88-3. RB Shonn Greene leads the offense with three straight 100-yard games to open the season, including 120 yards on 20 carries a week ago.

Pittsburgh rebounded from a stunning 27-17 upset home loss to Bowling Green to beat Buffalo 27-16 on Sept. 6, but fell short again as a 13-point home favorite. Pitt was counting on big things from RB LeSean McCoy after he racked up 1,328 yards last year, but McCoy has managed just 159 yards this season, though he does have four TDs.

Including last week?s non-cover against Iowa State, the Hawkeyes come into this contest on ATS slides of 4-11 on the road, 4-9 in September and 3-12 following a straight-up win. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six against Big Ten teams and 6-1 ATS in their last seven after a straight-up win, but they are on pointspread slides of 3-7 following a non-cover, 1-5 after a bye week, 0-4 at home and 0-4 in non-conference action.

The under has been the play in Iowa?s games lately, including 12-3 overall, 17-5 on the highway, 6-1 in September and 9-1 in non-conference action. And other than a 7-3 over run in September for Pitt, the Panthers? under runs including 7-1 overall, 8-3 after a bye week, 4-1 at home and 4-0 after a straight-up win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER





(18) Wake Forest (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at (24) Florida State (2-0, 0-0 ATS)

Wake Forest pays a visit to Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee looking to beat Florida State for the third straight season in the ACC opener for both schools.

In their last trip to Doak Campbell Stadium in 2006, Wake Forest routed the Seminoles 30-0 as 9?-point road underdogs for their first win in this series since 1973 and the first home shutout in Florida State coach Bobby Bowden?s 33 years at the school. The Demon Deacons proved it wasn?t a fluke by upsetting the ?Noles again last year 24-21 as a 4?-point home underdog. Wake Forest has cashed in each of the last four series meetings with FSU and is 8-2 ATS in the last 10.

The Demon Deacons, who opened 2008 with an impressive 41-13 rout at Baylor as an 11-point home favorite, has been idle since getting a last-second field goal to rally past Mississippi 30-28 on Sept. 6, failing to cover as a seven-point favorite. Wake Forest?s defense has forced eight turnovers in two games and senior QB Riley Skinner has been outstanding, completing 74.7 percent of his passes for 487 yards, five TDs and no INTs.

Bowden?s boys will face their stiffest test of the season today after dismantling Division I-AA foes Western Carolina and Chattanooga by a combined 115-7 in two unlined home contests. Thanks to the weak competition, the Seminoles defense is No. 1 in the nation, allowing 170 yards per game, and also ranks in the top-10 in total defense and scoring defense as well as total offense and scoring offense. Bowden?s two-headed QB situation has worked to this point with Christian Ponder and D?Vontrey Richardson combining for 554 yards, eight TDs and no INTs.

Wake Forest is on ATS streaks of 8-2 overall, 13-4 against winning teams, 22-12 as an underdog, 4-1 in ACC games, 4-1 on the road and 7-0 coming off an ATS setback. Florida State is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 as a home chalk and 23-7-1 ATS in its last 31 at home against teams with a winning road record, but the Seminoles are just 1-4 ATS following their last five straight-up wins and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight on grass.

The under is 10-4 in the Deacons? last 14 September games, but otherwise team has over streaks of 5-1 overall, 20-8-1 on the road and 6-2 in ACC games. The over is also 5-1 in FSU?s last six against a winning team, but the under is 4-1 in its last five in Tallahassee. Finally, these two narrowly topped the 44-point total in last year?s 24-21 battle, but the over-under has alternated in the last six contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST





Notre Dame (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Michigan State (2-1, 1-1 ATS)

Coming off an impressive home win over Michigan, Notre Dame hits the highway for the first time this season hoping to beat Michigan State at Spartan Stadium and extend a streak that has seen the visitor win seven consecutive meetings in this series.

The visitor is 7-0 SU and ATS in this rivalry dating back to 2001 and is 8-1 SU and ATS over the last nine years. In 2007, Michigan State went into South Bend and cruised to a 31-14 victory as a 10-point road chalk a year after Notre Dame rallied to steal a 40-37 overtime victory at Spartan Stadium as a 2?-point favorite. Michigan State is 7-3 SU and ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the straight-up winner has cashed in each contest the last decade.

Notre Dame arrives in East Lansing with a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) dating back to last season, including last week?s 35-17 drubbing of Michigan as a one-point home underdog. The offensive line hasn?t allowed a sack in 2008 after giving up an NCAA-record 58 last year, providing QB Jimmy Clausen time to throw the ball downfield, which he?s done with mixed results, passing for 384 yards and five TDs, but also tossing four INTs.

Mark Dantonio?s Spartans opened with a 38-31 loss at Cal, coming up just short as 6?-point ?dogs. But they?ve rebounded to outscore Eastern Michigan and Florida Alantic 59-10 over the last two weeks, though they came up just shy as an 18-point home chalk in last week?s 17-0 victory over Florida Atlantic. RB Javon Ringer has been Michigan State?s big offensive weapon, rushing for 492 yards on 104 carries and finding the end zone nine times.

Charlie Weis? Irish are 5-1 ATS in their last six after a straight-up win, but they are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight September games. Michigan State is just 6-15 ATS in its last 21 at home, but otherwise the Spartans are on positive ATS runs of 8-3 against independents, 4-0 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 following a straight-up win.

For the Irish, the under is on runs of 11-4 overall, 11-3 in non-conference action and 6-0 on the road. Meanwhile, the under is 5-2 in the Spartans? last seven non-conference games, but the over is 9-4 in their last 13 overall. Finally, the last four meetings between these rivals have topped the posted total, and the over is 4-1 in the last five clashes in East Lansing.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE





Boise State (2-0, 0-1 ATS) at (17) Oregon (3-0, 2-1 ATS)

A week after escaping with an overtime victory at Purdue, the Ducks return home to face Boise State, who need an upset win today at raucous Autzen Stadium to keep alive its dreams of crashing the BCS party this year.

Oregon rallied from a 20-6 halftime deficit at Purdue last week to defeat the Boilermakers 32-26 in overtime for its fourth consecutive victory, but the Ducks failed to cover as an eight-point favorite to snap a 3-0 ATS run. Oregon, which survived when Purdue missed a game-winning field goal on the final play of regulation, finished with 503 total yards, including 306 rushing. However, the defense gave up 408 yards (201 rushing), and starting QB Justin Roper (20-for-48, 197 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) was lost for several weeks with an injury.

The Broncos prepped for this contest with a 20-7 rout of Bowling Green, failing to cover as a 17?-point home favorite. Boise State, which had just a 340-307 edge in total offense last week, has won 11 of its last 13 games, but has followed up a 4-0 ATS streak with three straight non-covers in lined games.

Boise State has given up just one touchdown in each of its first two games, but today that defense runs up against a Ducks offense that through three games is putting up 47.3 points and 562 total yards per contest.

The Broncos are 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games against teams with a winning record, but otherwise they carry negative ATS trends of 3-7-1 against the Pac-10, 2-5 in September, 1-4 in non-conference play and 6-10-1 on the road.

Despite last week?s non-cover at Purdue, Oregon is on ATS streaks of 11-5 overall, 5-1 at home (2-0 this year), 14-3 as a home favorite, 4-0 against the Western Athletic Conference , 12-4 in September and 7-1 on artificial turf.

For Boise, the under is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 8-2 in September, 4-1 against the Pac-10 and 9-3 in non-conference action. The under is also 5-2 in Oregon?s last seven home games, but the over is 14-4-2 in the Ducks? last 20 in September and 5-0 in their last five versus WAC foes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON





Air Force (3-0, 2-0 ATS) at (20) Utah (3-0, 2-1 ATS)

Utah heads back on the road for a tricky matchup against always-dangerous Air Force as two of the Mountain West Conference?s remaining unbeatens square off in Colorado Springs, Colo.

The Utes fell behind instate rival Utah State 7-0 last week, then boat-raced the Aggies from there, winning 58-10 and easily covering as a 24?-point road favorite. Utah has won four straight games dating to last year?s bowl victory over Navy and is 11-1 SU in its last 12 and 8-3 ATS in its last 11.

Air Force had last week?s game at Houston shifted to Dallas because of Hurricane Ike, but the venue change didn?t slow the Falcons who won 31-28 as a 2?-point road underdog to improve to 9-1 ATS in their last 10 lined contests. Air Force?s triple-option offense worked to perfection as it rolled up 380 rushing yards, and the Falcons won their ninth game in their last 11 contests despite not completing a single pass (0-for-7) and allowing 534 yards to the Cougars.

The Falcons stunned Utah 20-12 as a seven-point road underdog last year, snapping the Utes? four-game winning streak in this series. Air Force is on a 6-2 ATS run against Utah, and the road team has cashed in six consecutive meetings in this rivalry, while the underdog is 9-0 ATS the last nine years.

Air Force is 11-3 ATS under second-year coach Troy Calhoun, including 5-0 ATS at home. Additionally, the Falcons are on pointspread streaks of 6-0 in Mountain West play and 27-11-1 in September. Meanwhile, Utah?s ATS runs include 8-3 overall, 5-2 in conference, 5-1 on the road and 8-4 against winning teams, but the Utes are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 in September.

The last two meetings between these teams have stayed under the total. The under is also on streaks of 7-2 for Utah in conference play, 7-3 for Utah on the road and 9-3 for Air Force at home. However, more recently, the over is 4-0 in Utah?s last four overall and 4-1 in Air Force?s last five overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: AIR FORCE





(15) East Carolina (3-0, 2-1 ATS) at N.C. State (1-2, 1-1 ATS)

Having survived a scare at Tulane a week ago, East Carolina takes to the road once again, this time to face struggling North Carolina State.

The Pirates got a touchdown with 1:41 remaining to put away Tulane 28-24 last week, falling way short as a 12?-point road chalk. East Carolina, which opened the season with stunning upset wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia, has won five straight games and seven of eight dating to last season.

North Carolina State managed to hang with Clemson for awhile last Saturday, but never threatened to pull off the upset, losing 27-9 but covering as a 20-point road underdog to halt an 0-3 ATS slide. The Wolfpack have lost four straight games to Division I-A foes, scoring a total of 27 points in the defeats.

East Carolina is getting it done with defense, yielding just 16.3 points and 270 yards per game, while N.C. State?s D has gotten ripped for 28.3 points and 366.7 yards per contest.

These regional rivals have alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in their last six meetings going back to 1997, with the Wolfpack prevailing 34-20 as a six-point road underdog last season. The visitor has won the last two contests, and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last 10 head-to-head battles, five of them being outright upsets.

Despite last week?s non-cover, the Pirates remain on incredible ATS steaks of 28-12 overall, 11-4 in non-conference action, 15-6 on the road, 12-4 in September, 11-3 against losing clubs and 6-2 versus the ACC. On the other hand, N.C. State is mired in ATS funks of 9-23 at home, 1-6 in non-league action, 2-8 in September and 1-4 versus Conference USA foes.

The over is 5-1 in East Carolina?s last six road games, but N.C. State sports under streaks of 21-10-2 overall, 7-1-2 in non-conference and 20-8-2 on grass.

ATS ADVANTAGE: EAST CAROLINA





(4) Florida (2-0, 1-0-1 ATS) at Tennessee (1-1 SU and ATS)

Another chapter in one of college football?s most bitter rivalries will be written today at Neyland Stadium, as Tennessee hosts Florida in the SEC opener for both schools.

The Vols bounced back from a heartbreaking overtime loss at UCLA with last week?s 35-3 rout of UAB as a 30-point home favorite. Tennessee featured a balanced offensive attack in the victory, rushing for 266 yards and passing for 282, while the defense held the Blazers to 275 total yards while forcing three turnovers (all interceptions).

Florida, which opened up 2008 with convincing wins and covers over Hawaii (56-10) and Miami, Fla. (26-3), took last week off to prep for this contest. The Gators have won and covered six consecutive regular season games.

Florida QB Tim Tebow (393 passing yards, 92 rushing yards, 3 TDs, no INTs) has gotten off to a slow start in his junior season, but the defense has been strong, allowing just 6.5 points and 190.5 total yards per game. As for the Vols, they sport a per-game yardage edge of 457-282, with the defense yielding just 15 ppg.

The Gators own a three-game winning streak in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), including last year?s dominating 59-20 victory as a seven-point home favorite, as Florida finishewith

a 554-298 yardage advantage. Although the Gators have cashed in two of the last three against Tennessee as a favorite, the underdog is still 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Finally, the home team has gotten the cash in the last three battles.

Florida is just 2-7-1 ATS as a road favorite since 2005, including 1-3 ATS last year, and the Gators are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight in September. Conversely, Tennessee sports ATS runs of 9-4-1 at home (5-1-1 at home last year), 4-0 as a home underdog since 2006 and 5-2-1 in SEC action.

For Florida, the over is on streaks of 8-2 overall, 4-1 on the road and 5-0 in the SEC. On the other hand, Tennessee sports under runs of 7-2 overall, 19-7-1 at home and 4-1 in conference play. Finally, the under is 4-2 in the last six series meetings (2-1 at Tennessee).

ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE





(3) Georgia (3-0, 1-0-1 ATS) at Arizona State (2-1, 1-1 ATS)

Arizona State will try to shake off last week?s stunning home loss to UNLV when it welcomes the third-ranked Bulldogs to Tempe for a much-anticipated non-conference clash.

The Sun Devils clearly got caught looking ahead to this showdown against Georgia, and they paid the price last Saturday, suffering a 23-20 overtime loss to unheralded UNLV as a 24-point home favorite, arguably the biggest upset of the young season. Since starting off last season 8-0 (6-2 ATS), Arizona State has split its last four games (1-6 ATS in lined action)

Georgia won its 10th in a row last week, but it wasn?t easy, holding on for 14-7 victory over South Carolina, pushing as a seven-point road favorite. The Bulldogs actually ended up on the short end of both the yardage (289-252) and first-down (20-17) battles, but the defense held the Gamecocks to just 18 net rushing yards, and Mark Richt?s team had a 10-minute edge in time of possession.

Including blowout wins over Georgia Southern (45-21) and Central Michigan (56-17), the Bulldogs are putting up averages of 38.3 points and 446.3 total yards per game (193.7 rushing ypg). Meanwhile, Arizona State nets 30.3 points and 442 total yards per effort (324.7 passing ypg). Defensively, both teams are stout, with Georgia allowing per-game averages of 15 points and 296 total yards and the Sun Devils giving up 17.7 points and 299 yards per game.

Georgia is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six lined games, and the Dawgs are on further positive pointspread streaks of 12-6-1 on the road, 5-0 in non-conference roadies, 5-0 against winning teams and 4-1-1 in September. On the flip side, in addition to their ongoing 1-6 ATS slump, the Sun Devils are in the midst of pointspread funks of 1-4 at home, 1-5 on grass and 1-4 against winning teams.

Since the end of the 2006 season, the under is 13-5 in ASU?s last 18 lined games, including 6-1 in its last seven non-conference matchups and 5-2 in September. Meanwhile, Georgia?s under streaks include 9-4 on the road and 22-7 in September.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA and UNDER







NATIONAL LEAGUE



Philadelphia (86-68) at Florida (81-72)

Desperately clinging to their playoff hopes, the red-hot Marlins go for their 10th straight victory when they send Anibal Sanchez (2-4, 5.87 ERA) to the mound opposite the Phillies? Joe Blanton (2-0, 4.53) in the middle game of a weekend series at Dolphin Stadium.

Florida ran its major-league-best winning streak to nine in a row with a 14-8 home rout of the Phillies on Friday, snapping Philadelphia?s seven-game run. Still, the Fish trail the Phillies by 4? games in the wild-card race. During their nine-game winning streak, the Marlins are 7-0 at home, 6-0 against the N.L. East and 9-0 against right-handed starters. They?re also 10-2 in Sanchez?s last 12 outings at home.

With Friday?s loss, Philadelphia slipped back into second place in the N.L. East, a half-game behind New York. The Phillies still lead the wild-card battle by two games over the Brewers and 4? over Florida. Charlie Manuel?s club also remains on positive runs of 5-2 on the road, 5-1 against right-handed starters, 6-1 on Saturdays and 4-1 when Blanton opposes N.L. East rivals.

Florida leads the season series against Philadelphia 10-6, winning seven of the last nine meetings overall and seven of the last nine at home.

Blanton, who was acquired from Oakland at the trade deadline, was solid in Sunday?s 7-3 win over Milwaukee, allowing three runs on five hits in seven innings, his longest outing since Aug. 8. Including his stint with the A?s, Blanton is 4-3 on the road with a 5.51 ERA in 11 starts this year. Also, despite yielding four runs on five hits in five innings, he defeated the Marlins 8-6 in Philadelphia in his only previous career start against them on Sept. 8.

Sanchez entered Sunday?s home start against Washington in the midst of a nasty four-start funk in which he gave up 19 runs in 9 2/3 innings (8.70 ERA). However, he tamed the Nationals, giving up three runs (two earned) on four hits in seven innings, with Florida holding on for an 8-7 victory. The right-hander, who missed the first four months of the season with an injury, is 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA in five home starts in 2008.

Sanchez is 0-3 with a 10.69 ERA in four career starts against the Phillies (all Florida losses, all in Philadelphia), including 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in two efforts this season.

The over is 3-0 in Blanton?s last three starts, 3-0 in Sanchez?s last three, 3-1 in Sanchez?s four career outings against Philly, and Blanton?s lone start against Florida topped the total. The over is also 8-2-1 in the Phillies? last 11 games overall, 7-3-1 in their last 11 on Saturday, 7-3 in Florida?s last 10 overall and 4-0 in the last four series meetings between these clubs.

Finally, with Friday?s slugfest easily flying over the posted price, the over is now 50-21-3 in the last 74 Marlins-Phillies clashes at Dolphin Stadium.



ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
 

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5* blowout game of the week houston-6
3* missouri
3* penn state
2* mid tennessee state
 

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12:30p The Prez Alabama -9.0 (-110) / 3 units
7:45p The Prez Auburn +3.0 (-110) / 5 units
3:30p The Prez Florida r367 -7.0 (-110) / 6 units
7:00p The Prez Florida State -4.0 (-110) / 5 units
4:00p The Prez Idaho +6.0 (-110) / 3 units
3:30p The Prez North Carolina -3.0 (-110) / 3 units
12:00p The Prez Purdue -10.0 (-110) / 4 units
8:15p The Prez Toledo +7.5 (-110) / 3 units
12:00p The Prez Troy +21.0 (-110) / 3 units
12:00p The Prez Troy Ohio State o46.5 (-110) / 3 units
3:00p The Prez Tulane -6.0 (-110) / 4 units<!-- / message -->
This guy takes the cake so far in padding his lines....aub, fla idaho toledo..what a joke!
 
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TOM FREESE

Game: San Jose St. at Stanford Sep 20 2008 9:00PM
Prediction: San Jose St.

Reason: San Jose St is 8-0 ATS off a straight up win and they are 40-19-1 ATS their last 60 games vs. losing teams. The Spartans are 7-1 ATS after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their last game and they are 6-1 ATS after allowing less than 20 points in their last game. Stanford is 4-10 ATS their last 14 home games and they are 4-10 ATS their last 14 games vs. winning teams. The Cardinal are 2-10 ATS after allowing over 200 yards rushing in their last game and they are 1-11 ATS their last 12 September games. PLAY ON SAN JOSE ST -
 
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JIMMY THE MOOSE

Game: East Carolina at NC State Sep 20 2008 12:00PM
Prediction: East Carolina

Reason: East Carolina is off to a 3-0 SU start and 2-1 ATS. The Pirates are averaging 26.3 PPG while allowing 16.3 per contest. East Carolina is 15-6 at the window in their last 21 road games. The Pirates are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record. East Carolina is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. ACC team's. North Carolina is 1-2 SU and 1-1 ATS. The Wolfpack are averaging 14.3 PPG and are giving up 28.3 per contest. NC State is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. In their last 10 games played in September they are 2-8 ATS. In their last 7 non-conference games they are 1-6 ATS. Play on East Carolina -.
 
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JIMMY BOYD

North Carolina -2

This is a huge game for the Heels to let the Hokies see what it feels like to be on the losing end of this matchup. Following a devastating loss in their season opener, the Hokies have bounce back with back-to-back wins but haven?t looked overly impressive in either. The Tar Heels will have had nine days of preparation leading up to this one and that, along with home field, gives them a big advantage here. The Hokies are a terrible 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games in September and just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. This points out the simple fact that this is not the same defensive team we are used to seeing. The Tar Heels are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games and 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Tar Heels.
 
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LEROY's MONEY TALKS 5K INVITATIONAL CAPPING CONTEST

The Shrink (Ken Weitzner) vs. ArmvinSports.com (Bruce Armstrong)

The Shrink:

1) #354 Texas A&M +2 1/2
2) #382 Arkansas State -5 1/2
3) #314 Cincinnati -11 1/2
4) #371 Iowa State +2 1/2
5) #344 Tulsa -10
6) #374 Stanford -8

BestBet: #322 Auburn +2 1/2


ArmvinSports (Bruce Armstrong):

1) #354 Texas A&M +2 1/2
2) #331 Virginia Tech +3 1/2
3) #359 Fresno State -7
4) #333 Iowa -1
5) #370 Arizona State +7
6) #312 Northwestern -11 1/2

BestBet: #404 Chicago -3
 
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NEWSLETTER

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP



NCAA Power Sweep 4* (1-2, 33%)
UTAH -7.5

Dog of the Week (1-1, 50%)
TOLEDO +7

Early Bird Play (1-0, 100%)
BYU -26 ( NOW -29 )





4* Utah over AIR FORCE - AF is on a 9-0 ATS run! Utah has won 4 of the L/5 over AF but was upset LY 20-12 after being stopped twice on the 1 yd line in the final 1:25 (UT inj riddled in that gm). Last time here Utah got a FG on the last play to win 17-14 (-1). The Utes are in a legitimate lone home loss revenge situation. LW they laid the hammer to Utah St, 58-10 in a dominating road win. Utah outgained USU 445-116 & held them under 100 ttl yds until the L/3:00 of the gm. QB Johnson is avg 231 ypg (66%) with a 5-3 ratio. RB Asiata has been seen taking snaps behind center & leads with 167 yds rush (4.8) but LY?s star, Mack, has 160 (4.6). AF had to fight off a late rally (up 31-7 mid-3Q) in a 31-28 win over an emotionally drained Houston team and in a gm that was moved up to avoid the threat of Ike. AF was outgained 534-380 and held to 0 yds passing further depleting QB Smith?s passing stats (30 ypg, 48%, 1-1 ratio) but he is the #2 rusher with 227 (4.5). Halderman is #1 with 238 rush yds (11.9) and Lumpkin has added 222 (4.0). AF & Utah have comb to avg 61 ppg S/?83 (22 gms). AF went 4-2 LY as a dog (24-18 L/10 as a dog) but is just 2-5 as a HD. Utah is just 4-8 as an AF (7-12 as MWC AF). This is the Utes 3rd road game in 4 wks while AF has a bye on deck. Although AF has opened the ssn strong and is on the ATS run, the last time Utah had a team this good (?04) they won their 3 MWC road games by 20 ppg. FORECAST: Utah 34 AIR FORCE 17




3* PURDUE over Central Michigan - This is their 3rd meeting in a year. LY we won with a 4H Key Selection on these pages on Purdue (-21?) at home and they covered 45-22 after jumping out to a 38-0 lead. They then met in the Motor City Bowl and Purdue led 34-13 at the half but only prevailed 51-48. CM has 16 ret starters to just 12 for PU but both offenses are stronger so this should be a shootout. CM is on their 3rd straight road gm, in a MAC sandwich and has not put a lot into IA non-conf gms as they were outscored 234-104 LY and lost to Georgia 56-17 (+24?). CM trailed Ohio 14-10 and had to come from behind for a 31-28 win despite being outgained 513-431 as Ohio fmbl?d the possible gm winning TD into the EZ. Purdue is off a frustrating loss as they led 20-3 in the 2Q but all?d Oregon to tie it, and missed a gm winning FG at the end of regulation, losing 32-26 in 2OT?s. They were outgained 503-408 by the #16 Ducks. Purdue has the def edge (#75-115) but CM has the off edge (#27-50) and has played the tougher schedule (#45-93). Based from their experience LY, Purdue won?t lay off the pedal. FORECAST: PURDUE 41 Central Michigan 24



3* PENN ST over Temple - Five members of the TU?s staff, including HC Golden played under Paterno. PSU won LY?s game in Philly 31-0 in front of 85% Lions fans with a 462-242 yd edge (Temple 4 yds rush) as Penn St transfer QB DiMichele DNP. The Lions have their B10 opener on deck and did not cover vs Buff LY in the same spot. Temple has 22 ret starters but is in a MAC sandwich. Penn St is 11-5-1 as a HF. We won with PSU as a 4H on these pages LW vs Syracuse as the Lions dominated with 26-8 FD & 560-159 yd edges. QB Clark has mastered the Spread HD offense avg 175 ypg (60%) with a 5-0 ratio. Royster has 306 yds (8.1). Temple has lost 2 heartbreakers in a row with an OT loss to Conn and on a Hail Mary TD pass to Buffalo last week. QB DiMichele avg 205 ypg (60%) with a 5-3 ratio. TU?s allowing 201 rush ypg (4.2) which spells trouble as the Lions haven?t let up on the gas yet. FORECAST: PENN ST 44 Temple 13


OTHER SELECTIONS

2* Florida over TENNESSEE - Florida manhandled Tenn LY for Fulmer?s worst ever loss and UT?s worst loss in 37 meetings vs UF. We won a rare 4H Totals Play on the OVER in the 59-20 final. UT has avg just 13 ypg rush the L/ 2 meetings. LY UF had a young D with only 2 starters returning and faced UT behind veteran QB Ainge but only all?d 298 yds & 14 FD?s. TY UF?s #3 D (#4 pass D) has only all?d 6.5 ppg & 191 ypg and now faces UT QB Crompton who is only making his 4th career start. UF has now won 3 straight (2-1 ATS) and is 11-3-1 ATS in conf openers (Tenn 6 str times). They are, however, 2-7 ATS (but won the L2) as an SEC AF and have gone 0-3 ATS in their road opener under Meyer. Vol QB Crompton (PS#3) was shaky on the road in the opener, but led UT to a comfortable win over UAB LW and is avg 214 ypg (53%) with a 2-3 ratio. RB Foster has 196 (7.8) and the tm is avg 222 (5.9) rush ypg. UT?s #21 D all?d mobile UAB QB Webb 78 rush (5.6) but he only threw for 162 yds with 3 int. Tebow has been reined in a bit TY and is avg 197 ypg (61%) with a 3-0 ratio and 92 rush (4.2). The Vols have the SEC?s longest home win streak (9) and are 13-2 SU & 4-0 ATS as a HD. While UF is off a bye, UT had a bye 2 weeks ago. The Gators? now veteran D is faster than UT?s offense and that will be the difference in this one.
FORECAST: Florida 34 TENNESSEE 20




2* Marshall (+) over SOUTHERN MISS - Last year Marshall was done in by 4 TO?s as they fell behind 20-0 in Huntington and are now 0-3 SU all-time losing by an avg of 34-18. Marshall comes in off a conf home win vs Memphis, despite being outgained 462-403 by the Tigers. Marshall held Memphis, who came in avg 30 ppg and 170 ypg on the ground, to 16 pts and 94 yds rushing. SMiss RB Fletcher has topped 150+ yards rushing in both of his games vs the Herd but they do have a new offense and he was held to 87 yds (3.8) LW vs Ark St. SMiss was outgained 447-348, but capitalized on the Red Wolves? 2 TO?s and a ST miscue. SMiss is 29-12 SU and 24-17 at home vs CUSA but that was all under coach Bower while Marshall is 5-11 ATS vs their own division. SM has just 10 ret sts (Marshall 17). SM has a bye on deck and is just 3-8 ATS before a bye. Marshall travels to WVU next week, but don?t look for the Herd to be thinking ahead. Previously MU got pounded on the ground vs SMiss but those days should be over as the Herd are well equipped to stop the Eagles new offense. FORECAST: Marshall 24 (+) SOUTHERN MISS 27



2* Notre Dame (+) over MICHIGAN ST - The visitor has won 7 in a row SU in the series (6-0-1 ATS) with MSU the 1st ever opp to win 6 straight in South Bend. Last time here began the downfall of ex-coach Smith as MSU blew a 31-14 3Q lead and lost. LY the Spartans won by 17 on the road with a 354-203 yd edge. MSU is just 5-9 as a HF and the Irish are 6-2 as an AD. This is ND?s road opener and they are off a 35-17 win over rival Mich as we had a 2H on the Irish on these pages. The Irish jumped out to a 21-0 lead thanks in part to 6 Michigan TO?s on a wet field as the Wolves outgained the Irish 388-260 and outFD?d them 21-14. QB Clausen avg 192 ypg (56%) with a 5-4 ratio. MSU went to the ground in the rain as RB Ringer (498, 4.8) had 282 yds as the Spartans shutout FAU. In that game the Owls had a 1Q 74 yd TD run called back and botched a FG on a bad snap. MSU has all of the edges (#36-45 off, #32-53 D & #87-112 ST?s) but this is the odd series where the home field is a disadvantage. FORECAST: Notre Dame 23 (+) MICHIGAN ST 26



UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 178-124. Over the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 27 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is this week's Underdog Play of the Week:

In their only prior gm (?05), Toledo had 20-13 FD & 304-248 yd edges but lost by 30 (44-14, +14) due to TO?s & poor ST play. UT is coming off B2B losing seasons for the first time since ?77-?78. The Rockets are 5-8 ATS but are 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in their L/4 HG?s. UT is 7-1 SU & ATS in its first lined HG. This is UT?s home opener & the Rockets are 41-6 SU in the Glass Bowl this decade incl 6-1 as a HD with wins over Iowa St, Kan & a talented #9-ranked Pitt team in the L/5 yrs. FSU has the edge on off (#41-68), def (#36-85) & ST ?s (#20-100). The big question here is, how will the Bulldogs respond after losing the biggest game in school history? In a somewhat similar situation back in ?05 when FSU lost to #1 USC (50-42), Fresno suffered a major hangover going on to lose 10 of their next 11 gms (1-10 SU & ATS). FSU is on a 7-4 ATS run but is only 1-5 ATS as an AF with 3 outright upsets. This could be a sticky situation for the Bulldogs as this contest lands smack in the middle of a pair of BCS gms (Wisky LW, at UCLA on deck) and it could be difficult for FSU to rise up again & bring its ?A? game. FORECAST: TOLEDO 27 Fresno St 23
 
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WUNDERDOG

Game: Alabama at Arkansas (Saturday 9/20 12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Arkansas +9.5 (-110)

The SEC has now gone into the record books with five teams in the top 10. Top to bottom this is the best conference in football right now. It is very very difficult to play anywhere on the road in this conference, no matter which teams are playing. Laying two scores on the road is just too much. That especially rings true given the fact that Alabama is not a big play, quick-strike offense. In fact, their scoring drives have averaged over eight plays per drive. That Tide philosophy has kept them from winning big on the road in the SEC where they own just one win by more than a TD since 2005. That makes the TD+ here look very valuable. Bobby Petrino is 17-6 ATS in home games and he'll have his team ready. Arkansas had it's game last week postponed vs Texas, so they have had ample time to gameplan here for the Tide. I look for them to hang close here.
 
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Vegas Sports Informer

Take #320 BYU (-28) over Wyoming (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 20)

Can easily see the BYU Cougars hitting 40 points in this game but with the Wyoming offense struggles this could and will get ugly. BYU and the favorite in this series is 4-0 ATS. Wyoming is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games
 
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THE RED SHEET


NCAA Red Sheet 89 (2-3-1, 40%)
MINNESOTA -7
MIAMI OHIO +12


NCAA Red Sheet 88 (4-4-1, 50%)
MICHIGAN STATE -8.5
SO MISSISSIPPI -9.5
RUTGERS -5





MINNESOTA 31 - Florida Atlantic 14 - (12 Noon EDT) -- Line opened at Minnesota minus 7, & is now minus 6?. No questioning the fact that the Gophers "stunk out the joint" year ago, in Brewster's first year, as Minny's normally overpowering running game wound up just 48th in the nation, en route to an unimaginable 1-11 campaign, coming directly on the heels of 5 consecutive bowl years. And one of those 11 setbacks came in a trip to Ft Lauderdale, to take on the Owls. Gophers entered off a pair of OT games, with BigTen play (Purdue) the following week. The result, a 42-39 loss, featuring 7 TOS, with FA QB Smith burning them for 463 yds. Minny (3-0) has improved on all phases, so we color this one payback. RATING: MINNESOTA 89

CINCINNATI 24 - Miami-Ohio 23 - (7:30) -- Line opened at Cincinnati minus 13, & is now minus 11?. Much like the above selection, the Redhawks of Miami have a score to settle, after being blasted 47-10 by the Bearcats a year ago. In '07, Cincy was the master of the takeaway, & didn't disappoint in their demolition of Miami, a the 'Hawks turned it over 4 times, & had a punt blocked to boot. But things have changed dramatically since that encounter, as Miami returns 17 starters from last year's team which eventually made it to the MAC title game. The 'Cats are knee deep in QB trouble, as they are without LY's standout Mauk, with his replacement Grutza, is out (ankle). Line is more than juicy for this circled contest.RATING: MIAMI-OHIO 89

MICHIGAN STATE 34 - Notre Dame 10 - (3:30) -- Line opened at MichiganSt minus 7, & is now minus 8?. Well, the Irish came through for us as a 3* Phone Play, in their 35-17 win over Michigan a week ago (19? pt cover), but a closer look shows that they did it mainly by the big play, as no less than 6 Michigan TOs paved the way. Just 14 Irish FDs, along with 388-260 yd deficit. NotreDame is averaging only 3.2 ypr in the early going, including a 3.1 ypr effort the previous wk, vs a SnDiegoSt team which was mauled for 293 RYs the following week. The Spartans completely dominated the Irish a year ago, holding ND to just 9 FDs. Not only that but MSt is smoking behind Ringer (282 RYs LW), & QB Hoyer. Totally focused.
RATING: MICHIGAN STATE 88

SO MISSISSIPPI 47 - Marshall 17 - (3:30) -- Line opened at SoMiss minus 10, & is now minus 9?. The line movement on this one is puzzling, as the Eagles of SoMiss have opened impressively, standing at 3-0 ATS, behind the throwing of RS frosh Davis, & the running of the steady Fletcher, who is accustomed to burning the Herd (151 & 152 yds the past 2 yrs). So take note of the Eagles winning their last series hoster by a 42-7 count (28-pt cover). This is SoMiss' 2nd home game of the season, so check piling up 30 FDs, 427 RYs, & 633 Total Yards in their first hoster, a 20-pt cover. Marshall is improved, but was mauled by 37 in its only road game to date, & has allowed at least 35 pts in 4 of its last 6 lined tilts. RATING: SO MISSISSIPPI 88

Rutgers 45 - NAVY 31 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Rutgers minus 4, & is now minus 4?. This contest is a classic "must-win" setup for the Knights, who've been a genuine embarrassment in the early going. They lost only 7 starters from LY's bowl squad, with high hopes from the faithful. But things have been a genuine nightmare so far, with a combined 68-19 scoring deficit in their 0-2 start (minus 68 pts ATS). Are an amazing 122 pts behind the pts in 9 of their last 10 regular season games. The Middies never have trouble moving it, but haveallowed 44 ppg in 12 of their last 13 games. It's now-or-never for the Knights. Now! RATING: RUTGERS 88
 
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Lee Sterling

Texas A&M to upset Miami Fl. 20-17
Boise St. to upset Oregon 30-24
Tennessee to upset Florida 31-27
LSU to beat Auburn 14-10
 

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