Cajun-Sports "GATOR REPORT" Newsletter for Saturday
Saturday September 20, 2008
Selections in the GATOR REPORT are always 1-Unit selections unless otherwise noted. (*) 1-Unit, (**) 2-Units and (***) 3-Units.
NCAA ?Tech? Game of the Week:
7:00 PM EDT
2 STAR SELECTION
Kent State +2? over LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
The Ragin' Cajuns seek their first win of the season when they host the Golden Flashes in a MAC vs. Sun Belt Conference clash Saturday night. Akron did get their first win of the season last week over 1-AA Delaware, 24-3. They opened the 2008 season with back-to-back losses to Boston College and Iowa State. Meanwhile, Louisiana-Lafayette opened the 2008 campaign with an embarrassing, 51-21 setback to Southern Mississippi, and followed that game with a tough, 20-17 loss at Illinois.
The Cajuns have not enjoyed much of a home field advantage, as they lost 5 of 6 Cajun Field and will now try to stop a Kent State team coming off its best offensive effort of the year. The defense for ULL has been unable to stop the run, as the opposition is pounding the Cajuns for a whopping 300+ rushing ypg. Overall the defense is allowing 487 total ypg, and that has led to a whopping 35.5 ppg.
The opening line of this game certainly caught our eye, as we look to play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a ?key number?, such as a 2', or 6'-point favorite, especially the 2'.
Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright.
This certainly has not been a good price range for Louisiana-Lafayette, as they are 0-5-1 ATS (-13.1 ppg) with a line between -3 and +1. These inter-conference meetings have not been kind to the Cajun?s conference as well. Sun Belt teams are 0-7 SU (-13.4 ppg) & 0-6-1 ATS (-9 ppg) vs. the Mid-American Conference when not favored by 8+ points since 2004.
Actually, Sun Belt Conference teams have done very poorly since the league?s existence in games with very tight lines in all non-conference games. This is documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play AGAINST a Sun Belt Conference team (not a favorite of more than 3 points or underdog of 3+ points) vs. a non-conference opponent.
The Sun Belt teams in this spot are 0-10 SU & ATS, losing outright and failing to cover by an average of 2 TDs per game on each count. Last year, it was Louisiana-Lafayette hosting Ohio of the MAC and lost 31-23 as a 1-point home dog. The Cajuns qualify again as the PLAY AGAINST team, so we?ll take all the points we can get back the over looked Golden Flashes.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: KENT STATE 28 LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 24
NCAA 70% Super Situations:
>NCAA Saturday: Play Under CFB team against the total after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game, 25-2 Under since 1992 (92.6%)
PLAY: *** Mississippi State / Georgia Tech UNDER 36.5
NCAA Saturday:
GATOR REPORT NCAA Games of the Week:
SEC GOW (1-1 -10): AUBURN +2? over LSU
LSU is:
0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS at Auburn
0-7 ATS as a conference favorite with less than 13 days rest last season.
0-7-1 as a Saturday conference favorite of less than 16 points with less than 13 days rest under Les Miles.
Auburn is:
9-0 ATS (+16.4 ppg) as an underdog before Game 8 vs. opponents off 2 SU wins.
8-0 ATS since 2004 off scoring less than 21 points and not favored by 41+ points.
ACC GOW (0-0): Wake Forest +5 over FLORIDA STATE
Wake Forest is:
4-0 ATS vs. Florida State, winning the last 2 outright as underdogs, including 30-0 shutout in last trip to Tallahassee.
Florida State is:
0-4 ATS with double revenge since 1999
Off 2 non-lined SU wins; however, playing 2 1-AA teams has not prepared teams well for the role of small favorite. Favorites of 8 points or less off 2 non-lined games vs. opponents not off an underdog SU loss of 6+ points are 0-8 SU (-21.2 ppg) & 0-8 ATS (-23.4 ppg) since at least 1980.
BIG EASY? GOW (3-0 +300): OREGON -10 over Boise State
Boise State has NEVER beat a BCS school on the road, while Oregon is 20-1-1 ATS in home SU wins, including 8-0 ATS the last 89
Oregon has scored 34+ points in every non-conference home game since the start of the 2004 season, which is bad news for Boise State, as they are 0-11-1 ATS when allowing more than 28 points on the road.
Underdog GOW (1-1 -10): TOLEDO +7 over Fresno State
The 25th-ranked Bulldogs are still hurting after losing a tough home game to No. 8-ranked Wisconsin. Now, the Bulldogs find themselves the hunted instead of the hunter, as they are forced to travel to a tough environment to play a hungry team looking for a program-building victory.
Fresno State entered the season with the highest of hopes - a Bowl Championship Series berth. After the 13-10 loss to Wisconsin in which there were missed three field goals, the Bulldogs' BCS dream is certainly a long shot.
The biggest question around the program is how the team responds to the adversity of losing to Wisconsin and effectively ending those hopes. In the past the Bulldogs have let down after tough losses.
Fresno State is:
0-12-1 ATS (-12.8 ppg) off a SU loss in which they did not beat the spread by more than 11 points.
0-11-1 ATS (-13 ppg) on the road off a SU loss
0-8-1 ATS (-10 ppg) off a home SU loss
Toledo is:
11-0 SU (+24.6 ppg) & 11-0 ATS (+15 ppg) at home off scoring 35+ points and allowing less than 35 points in its last game and not favored by 32+ points.
6-0 SU (+8.7 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+12.8 ppg) as a home underdog under Amstutz with less than 14 days rest off their previous game.
4-0 SU & ATS at home with revenge vs. non-conference opponents under
Saturday September 20, 2008
Selections in the GATOR REPORT are always 1-Unit selections unless otherwise noted. (*) 1-Unit, (**) 2-Units and (***) 3-Units.
NCAA ?Tech? Game of the Week:
7:00 PM EDT
2 STAR SELECTION
Kent State +2? over LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
The Ragin' Cajuns seek their first win of the season when they host the Golden Flashes in a MAC vs. Sun Belt Conference clash Saturday night. Akron did get their first win of the season last week over 1-AA Delaware, 24-3. They opened the 2008 season with back-to-back losses to Boston College and Iowa State. Meanwhile, Louisiana-Lafayette opened the 2008 campaign with an embarrassing, 51-21 setback to Southern Mississippi, and followed that game with a tough, 20-17 loss at Illinois.
The Cajuns have not enjoyed much of a home field advantage, as they lost 5 of 6 Cajun Field and will now try to stop a Kent State team coming off its best offensive effort of the year. The defense for ULL has been unable to stop the run, as the opposition is pounding the Cajuns for a whopping 300+ rushing ypg. Overall the defense is allowing 487 total ypg, and that has led to a whopping 35.5 ppg.
The opening line of this game certainly caught our eye, as we look to play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a ?key number?, such as a 2', or 6'-point favorite, especially the 2'.
Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright.
This certainly has not been a good price range for Louisiana-Lafayette, as they are 0-5-1 ATS (-13.1 ppg) with a line between -3 and +1. These inter-conference meetings have not been kind to the Cajun?s conference as well. Sun Belt teams are 0-7 SU (-13.4 ppg) & 0-6-1 ATS (-9 ppg) vs. the Mid-American Conference when not favored by 8+ points since 2004.
Actually, Sun Belt Conference teams have done very poorly since the league?s existence in games with very tight lines in all non-conference games. This is documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play AGAINST a Sun Belt Conference team (not a favorite of more than 3 points or underdog of 3+ points) vs. a non-conference opponent.
The Sun Belt teams in this spot are 0-10 SU & ATS, losing outright and failing to cover by an average of 2 TDs per game on each count. Last year, it was Louisiana-Lafayette hosting Ohio of the MAC and lost 31-23 as a 1-point home dog. The Cajuns qualify again as the PLAY AGAINST team, so we?ll take all the points we can get back the over looked Golden Flashes.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: KENT STATE 28 LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 24
NCAA 70% Super Situations:
>NCAA Saturday: Play Under CFB team against the total after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game, 25-2 Under since 1992 (92.6%)
PLAY: *** Mississippi State / Georgia Tech UNDER 36.5
NCAA Saturday:
GATOR REPORT NCAA Games of the Week:
SEC GOW (1-1 -10): AUBURN +2? over LSU
LSU is:
0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS at Auburn
0-7 ATS as a conference favorite with less than 13 days rest last season.
0-7-1 as a Saturday conference favorite of less than 16 points with less than 13 days rest under Les Miles.
Auburn is:
9-0 ATS (+16.4 ppg) as an underdog before Game 8 vs. opponents off 2 SU wins.
8-0 ATS since 2004 off scoring less than 21 points and not favored by 41+ points.
ACC GOW (0-0): Wake Forest +5 over FLORIDA STATE
Wake Forest is:
4-0 ATS vs. Florida State, winning the last 2 outright as underdogs, including 30-0 shutout in last trip to Tallahassee.
Florida State is:
0-4 ATS with double revenge since 1999
Off 2 non-lined SU wins; however, playing 2 1-AA teams has not prepared teams well for the role of small favorite. Favorites of 8 points or less off 2 non-lined games vs. opponents not off an underdog SU loss of 6+ points are 0-8 SU (-21.2 ppg) & 0-8 ATS (-23.4 ppg) since at least 1980.
BIG EASY? GOW (3-0 +300): OREGON -10 over Boise State
Boise State has NEVER beat a BCS school on the road, while Oregon is 20-1-1 ATS in home SU wins, including 8-0 ATS the last 89
Oregon has scored 34+ points in every non-conference home game since the start of the 2004 season, which is bad news for Boise State, as they are 0-11-1 ATS when allowing more than 28 points on the road.
Underdog GOW (1-1 -10): TOLEDO +7 over Fresno State
The 25th-ranked Bulldogs are still hurting after losing a tough home game to No. 8-ranked Wisconsin. Now, the Bulldogs find themselves the hunted instead of the hunter, as they are forced to travel to a tough environment to play a hungry team looking for a program-building victory.
Fresno State entered the season with the highest of hopes - a Bowl Championship Series berth. After the 13-10 loss to Wisconsin in which there were missed three field goals, the Bulldogs' BCS dream is certainly a long shot.
The biggest question around the program is how the team responds to the adversity of losing to Wisconsin and effectively ending those hopes. In the past the Bulldogs have let down after tough losses.
Fresno State is:
0-12-1 ATS (-12.8 ppg) off a SU loss in which they did not beat the spread by more than 11 points.
0-11-1 ATS (-13 ppg) on the road off a SU loss
0-8-1 ATS (-10 ppg) off a home SU loss
Toledo is:
11-0 SU (+24.6 ppg) & 11-0 ATS (+15 ppg) at home off scoring 35+ points and allowing less than 35 points in its last game and not favored by 32+ points.
6-0 SU (+8.7 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+12.8 ppg) as a home underdog under Amstutz with less than 14 days rest off their previous game.
4-0 SU & ATS at home with revenge vs. non-conference opponents under
