CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
NCAA CKO 11 (1-1-1, 50%)
MINNESOTA -7
NCAA CKO 10 (7-3, 70%)
RUTGERS -5
VANDERBILT +6.5
MIAMI OHIO +12
11 *MINNESOTA over Florida Atlantic
Late Score Forecast:
*MINNESOTA 38 - Florida Atlantic 19
In last week’s pointspread push against Michigan State, the Owls got a huge break with the weather. A nearly constant rain put a blanket on the Spartan passing game and kept the MSU offense from scoring a lot more. FAU will have no such ally this week against rejuvenated, offensively-potent, revenge-minded Minnesota, which plays indoors at the Metrodome. The Owls allowed Spartan RB Ringer to ramble for 282 yards, and the FAU defense ranks 105th in the country. Minnesota has shown dramatic improvement on defense this season under new d.c. Ted Roof, and there really was never any question about the offense with dual-threat QB Adam Weber, star WR Eric Decker, and a vet OL springing a variety of solid RBs. The injury to TB Duane Bennett (4.1 ypc LY)
isn’t a crushing blow to Gophers, as California true frosh DeLeon Eskridge (turned down Nebraska and Washington)ran for 114 yards & 3 scores last week vs. Montana St. and fellow frosh Shady Salamon (5 ypc) are
ready to roll.
10 RUTGERS at *Navy
Late Score Forecast:
RUTGERS 35 - *Navy 20
Few teams (other than Notre Dame) have succeeded vs. Navy’s option offense as well as Rutgers under Greg Schiano, who is 5-1 SU and vs. the spread vs. the Midshipmen, with all wins by six points or more. And Navy
has struggled more than expected to far this season following the departure of HC Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech, as the Middie backfield has been plagued by key injuries (now FB Eric Kettani has a strained hamstring; check status) and the veteran secondary has failed to solidify vs. the pass. All of that is good news for Rutgers, which is 0-2 after losses to ascending Fresno and North Carolina. With Ray Rice gone to the NFL, the Scarlet Knights are counting more on their deep and speedy cast of WRs TY. And Schiano still has enough veteran talent on defense to disrupt the Navy option.
10 VANDERBILT over *Ole Miss
Late Score Forecast:
VANDERBILT 27 - *Ole Miss 22
Granted, Ole Miss appears an improved side under new HC Houston Nutt. But SEC sources also alerting us to pay attention to developments at Vandy, where HC Bobby Johnson’s consistent recruiting efforts have closed the “talent gap” that long hindered Dores vs. conference opposition, helping the Nashville bunch to its first 3-0 start since 1984. Vandy now owns the sort of SEC-caliber playmakers it has long lacked, and Johnson has spiced up attack accordingly by featuring electric DBs D.J. Moore & Jamie Graham on offensive end (both effective on Wake Forest-like “orbit sweeps”). Dores (least-penalized team in SEC; QB Nickson no picks in first 3 games) not beating themselves these days, either. Trust series and team trends (Vandy 6-1 vs. line last 7
meetings; Dores 12-4 as road dog since ‘05) to continue.
10 MIAMI-OHIO over *Cincinnati
Late Score Forecast:
MIAMI-OHIO 20 - *Cincinnati 19
Long-time Midwest scouts rather surprised Cincy is still a double-digit favorite in 134th meeting for the Victory Bell, considering journeyman jr. QB Pike (3 ints. in only 31 career attempts) and/or soph D. Jones (Notre Dame transfer) are piloting the no-huddle attack for injured starter Grutza, who was in a groove until suffering broken ankle vs. Oklahoma. We doubt either QB ready to pick up the slack vs. a fired-up Miami-Ohio defense aching to atone for its embarrassingly-poor effort in 47-10 blowout vs. Bearcats year ago. Miami’s terrific trio of LBs (all 3 are Butkus Award candidates!) well-equipped to contain Cincy’s ground attack, as well as effectively blitz stationary 6-6 Pike, who’ll show hesitation in pocket sans established rapport with his WRs. On other side, RedHawks battle-tested jr. QB Raudabaugh (793 YP) now able to work play-action with vet WRs, thanks to productive soph RB Merriweather (210 YR so far; he missed ‘07 game with injury) commanding attention from Bearcat defense that’s “not playing physical enough,” according to disgruntled HC Kelly. Miami solid 6-1 last 7 as a road dog.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games):
CENTRAL FLORIDA (+11) at Boston College—UCF has covered 5 of last 6 as dog and owns stalwart defenseto contain BC offense trying to adjust to life without Matt Ryan...IOWA (+1) at Pittsburgh—Pitt’s LeSean McCoy isn’t sneaking up on teams this season (3.8 ypc TY after 4.8 as a true frosh). Hawkeye “D” ranks 1st in scoring and allows just 3 ypc...
AIR FORCE (+7½) vs. Utah—A trip to Colorado Springs not easyto prepare for, and sr. QB Shea Smith executing much like Shaun Carney did the last 4 years...TENNESSEE (+7½) vs. Florida—Certainly respect Florida QBTebow, but revenge-minded Vols aren’t anybody’s patsy at jam-packed Neyland Stadium...
NCAA CKO 11 (1-1-1, 50%)
MINNESOTA -7
NCAA CKO 10 (7-3, 70%)
RUTGERS -5
VANDERBILT +6.5
MIAMI OHIO +12
11 *MINNESOTA over Florida Atlantic
Late Score Forecast:
*MINNESOTA 38 - Florida Atlantic 19
In last week’s pointspread push against Michigan State, the Owls got a huge break with the weather. A nearly constant rain put a blanket on the Spartan passing game and kept the MSU offense from scoring a lot more. FAU will have no such ally this week against rejuvenated, offensively-potent, revenge-minded Minnesota, which plays indoors at the Metrodome. The Owls allowed Spartan RB Ringer to ramble for 282 yards, and the FAU defense ranks 105th in the country. Minnesota has shown dramatic improvement on defense this season under new d.c. Ted Roof, and there really was never any question about the offense with dual-threat QB Adam Weber, star WR Eric Decker, and a vet OL springing a variety of solid RBs. The injury to TB Duane Bennett (4.1 ypc LY)
isn’t a crushing blow to Gophers, as California true frosh DeLeon Eskridge (turned down Nebraska and Washington)ran for 114 yards & 3 scores last week vs. Montana St. and fellow frosh Shady Salamon (5 ypc) are
ready to roll.
10 RUTGERS at *Navy
Late Score Forecast:
RUTGERS 35 - *Navy 20
Few teams (other than Notre Dame) have succeeded vs. Navy’s option offense as well as Rutgers under Greg Schiano, who is 5-1 SU and vs. the spread vs. the Midshipmen, with all wins by six points or more. And Navy
has struggled more than expected to far this season following the departure of HC Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech, as the Middie backfield has been plagued by key injuries (now FB Eric Kettani has a strained hamstring; check status) and the veteran secondary has failed to solidify vs. the pass. All of that is good news for Rutgers, which is 0-2 after losses to ascending Fresno and North Carolina. With Ray Rice gone to the NFL, the Scarlet Knights are counting more on their deep and speedy cast of WRs TY. And Schiano still has enough veteran talent on defense to disrupt the Navy option.
10 VANDERBILT over *Ole Miss
Late Score Forecast:
VANDERBILT 27 - *Ole Miss 22
Granted, Ole Miss appears an improved side under new HC Houston Nutt. But SEC sources also alerting us to pay attention to developments at Vandy, where HC Bobby Johnson’s consistent recruiting efforts have closed the “talent gap” that long hindered Dores vs. conference opposition, helping the Nashville bunch to its first 3-0 start since 1984. Vandy now owns the sort of SEC-caliber playmakers it has long lacked, and Johnson has spiced up attack accordingly by featuring electric DBs D.J. Moore & Jamie Graham on offensive end (both effective on Wake Forest-like “orbit sweeps”). Dores (least-penalized team in SEC; QB Nickson no picks in first 3 games) not beating themselves these days, either. Trust series and team trends (Vandy 6-1 vs. line last 7
meetings; Dores 12-4 as road dog since ‘05) to continue.
10 MIAMI-OHIO over *Cincinnati
Late Score Forecast:
MIAMI-OHIO 20 - *Cincinnati 19
Long-time Midwest scouts rather surprised Cincy is still a double-digit favorite in 134th meeting for the Victory Bell, considering journeyman jr. QB Pike (3 ints. in only 31 career attempts) and/or soph D. Jones (Notre Dame transfer) are piloting the no-huddle attack for injured starter Grutza, who was in a groove until suffering broken ankle vs. Oklahoma. We doubt either QB ready to pick up the slack vs. a fired-up Miami-Ohio defense aching to atone for its embarrassingly-poor effort in 47-10 blowout vs. Bearcats year ago. Miami’s terrific trio of LBs (all 3 are Butkus Award candidates!) well-equipped to contain Cincy’s ground attack, as well as effectively blitz stationary 6-6 Pike, who’ll show hesitation in pocket sans established rapport with his WRs. On other side, RedHawks battle-tested jr. QB Raudabaugh (793 YP) now able to work play-action with vet WRs, thanks to productive soph RB Merriweather (210 YR so far; he missed ‘07 game with injury) commanding attention from Bearcat defense that’s “not playing physical enough,” according to disgruntled HC Kelly. Miami solid 6-1 last 7 as a road dog.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games):
CENTRAL FLORIDA (+11) at Boston College—UCF has covered 5 of last 6 as dog and owns stalwart defenseto contain BC offense trying to adjust to life without Matt Ryan...IOWA (+1) at Pittsburgh—Pitt’s LeSean McCoy isn’t sneaking up on teams this season (3.8 ypc TY after 4.8 as a true frosh). Hawkeye “D” ranks 1st in scoring and allows just 3 ypc...
AIR FORCE (+7½) vs. Utah—A trip to Colorado Springs not easyto prepare for, and sr. QB Shea Smith executing much like Shaun Carney did the last 4 years...TENNESSEE (+7½) vs. Florida—Certainly respect Florida QBTebow, but revenge-minded Vols aren’t anybody’s patsy at jam-packed Neyland Stadium...
THE GOLD SHEET
NCAA Key Releases (7-6, 54%)
OHIO +10.5
SO MISSISSIPPI -9.5
MINNESOTA -7
Ohio 30 - NORTHWESTERN 31—Ohio U. got a major bounce-back performance from QB Boo Jackson (365 YP, 3 TDs, 0 ints.) subbing for the injured Theo Scott last week, and hungry 0-3 Bobcats capable of putting up a fight. Undefeated Northwestern has faced a much less-demanding schedule than Ohio, and the two teams have given up basically the same amount of yards. NU 3-10 last 13 as a home favorite; Bobcats 7-3 last 10 as a road dog.
(05-NORTHWESTERN -14' 38-14...SR: Northwestern 2-1)
SOUTHERN MISS 37 - Marshall 16—Former Oklahoma State o.c.Larry Fedora’s attack still a work in progress at Southern Miss, although maturing RS frosh QB Austin Davis has developed nice rapport with all-conf. sr.TE Shawn Nelson (19 catches for 228 yards in last 2 games). Much rather lay points than take them with Marshall, which is money-burning 4-19 vs. spread its last 23 on road! (07-S. Miss 33-MAR. 24...S.21-20 S.41/160 M.31/99 S.23/30/0/310 M.20/38/3/309 S.0 M.1)
(07-Usm -3' 33-24 06-USM -7 42-7 05-Usm -7 27-24 (OT)...SR: Southern Miss 3-0)
MINNESOTA 38 - Florida Atlantic 19—Minnesota found a replacement for injured RB Bennett last week, as frosh Eskridge rambled 114 yards and 3 TDs against Montana State. FAU was beaten worse than 17-0 score last week, as Javon Ringer ran for 282 yards. Gopher QB Weber is 2nd in the Big Ten in total offense, and WR Eric Decker leads that league in receiving. HC Brewster gets revenge for last year while Gophers surge to 4-0 heading into Big Ten play. (07-FAU 42-Minn. 39...M.29-24 M.28/135 F.41/117 F.27/44/0/463 M.31/47/4/335 F.0 M.3) (07-FLORIDA ATLANTIC +7 42-39 05-MINNESOTA -32 46-7...SR: EVEN 1-1)
NCAA Key Releases (7-6, 54%)
OHIO +10.5
SO MISSISSIPPI -9.5
MINNESOTA -7
Ohio 30 - NORTHWESTERN 31—Ohio U. got a major bounce-back performance from QB Boo Jackson (365 YP, 3 TDs, 0 ints.) subbing for the injured Theo Scott last week, and hungry 0-3 Bobcats capable of putting up a fight. Undefeated Northwestern has faced a much less-demanding schedule than Ohio, and the two teams have given up basically the same amount of yards. NU 3-10 last 13 as a home favorite; Bobcats 7-3 last 10 as a road dog.
(05-NORTHWESTERN -14' 38-14...SR: Northwestern 2-1)
SOUTHERN MISS 37 - Marshall 16—Former Oklahoma State o.c.Larry Fedora’s attack still a work in progress at Southern Miss, although maturing RS frosh QB Austin Davis has developed nice rapport with all-conf. sr.TE Shawn Nelson (19 catches for 228 yards in last 2 games). Much rather lay points than take them with Marshall, which is money-burning 4-19 vs. spread its last 23 on road! (07-S. Miss 33-MAR. 24...S.21-20 S.41/160 M.31/99 S.23/30/0/310 M.20/38/3/309 S.0 M.1)
(07-Usm -3' 33-24 06-USM -7 42-7 05-Usm -7 27-24 (OT)...SR: Southern Miss 3-0)
MINNESOTA 38 - Florida Atlantic 19—Minnesota found a replacement for injured RB Bennett last week, as frosh Eskridge rambled 114 yards and 3 TDs against Montana State. FAU was beaten worse than 17-0 score last week, as Javon Ringer ran for 282 yards. Gopher QB Weber is 2nd in the Big Ten in total offense, and WR Eric Decker leads that league in receiving. HC Brewster gets revenge for last year while Gophers surge to 4-0 heading into Big Ten play. (07-FAU 42-Minn. 39...M.29-24 M.28/135 F.41/117 F.27/44/0/463 M.31/47/4/335 F.0 M.3) (07-FLORIDA ATLANTIC +7 42-39 05-MINNESOTA -32 46-7...SR: EVEN 1-1)
Nelly's Sportsline
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
RATING 5 TULSA (-10½) over New Mexico
RATING 4 MIAMI, FL (-3½) over Texas A&M
RATING 3 TOLEDO (+6½) over Fresno State
RATING 2 INDIANA (-3½) over Ball State
RATING 2 SAN JOSE STATE (+9½) over Stanford
RATING 1 COLORADO STATE (+6½) over Houston
RATING 1 ALABAMA (-9½) over Arkansas<!-- / message -->
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
RATING 5 TULSA (-10½) over New Mexico
RATING 4 MIAMI, FL (-3½) over Texas A&M
RATING 3 TOLEDO (+6½) over Fresno State
RATING 2 INDIANA (-3½) over Ball State
RATING 2 SAN JOSE STATE (+9½) over Stanford
RATING 1 COLORADO STATE (+6½) over Houston
RATING 1 ALABAMA (-9½) over Arkansas<!-- / message -->
Soccer VictoriousPlay:
Sunderland AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC (English Premiership)
Recommendation: 1* Sunderland 0,-0.5
FC Schalke 04 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt (German Bundesliga)
Recommendation: 2* FC Schalke 04 -1
Derby County FC vs. Cardiff City FC (English Championship)
Recommendation: 2* Derby County 0
Grenoble Foot 38 vs. FC Girondins de Bordeaux (French Ligue 1)
Recommendation: 1* Bordeaux 0,-0.5
Atletico Madrid vs. RC Recreativo Huelva (Spanish Primera)
Recommendation: 2* Atletico Madrid -1
BOL guys!!
Sunderland AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC (English Premiership)
Recommendation: 1* Sunderland 0,-0.5
FC Schalke 04 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt (German Bundesliga)
Recommendation: 2* FC Schalke 04 -1
Derby County FC vs. Cardiff City FC (English Championship)
Recommendation: 2* Derby County 0
Grenoble Foot 38 vs. FC Girondins de Bordeaux (French Ligue 1)
Recommendation: 1* Bordeaux 0,-0.5
Atletico Madrid vs. RC Recreativo Huelva (Spanish Primera)
Recommendation: 2* Atletico Madrid -1
BOL guys!!
Sat, 09/20/08 - 8:00 PMTommy Rider | CFB Total
triple-dime bet370 Arizona St. / 369 Georgia Over 50.0 BetUS
Analysis: I really love this spot for an easy over. Here's the deal: Both of these offenses didn't look good last week, so we are getting value here. But the reality is, ASU was sluggish because they were looking ahead and Georgia took on a South Carolina team that always plays them tough defensively. I expect two very different offenses in this game. One thing that can kill an over is a strong pass rush, which I don't believe either of these teams have. Rudy Carpenter should shred the Dogs defense, a defense I think is vastly overrated up front. On the other side, Georgia will be able to do whatever they want. I love taking overs when SEC teams go out of conference because they are so used to playing against physical defenses, teams like ASU are a breeze. I think the Dawgs will be very balanced offensively and both Moreno and Stafford will go off. Remember what Texas did to the Sun Devils last year in the Holiday Bowl? I see the Dawgs doing the same. I think this is going to be a very entertaining game to watch and I see us having no problem getting over 50 points here.***3 UNIT PLAY***
Sat, 09/20/08 - 3:30 PMTommy Rider | CFB Total
triple-dime bet330 Navy / 329 Rutgers Over 60.5 BetUS
Analysis: This is my classic run vs. pass over game. I love this spot for both teams. Rutgers has looked horrible in two games but Fresno State and NC have very strong defenses. Navy does not. Any team can throw the ball all over the Midshipmen so while Mike Teel is far from a superstar, he should easily throw for 350 yards and four scores here. On the other side, Navy gets starting QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada back, replacing average Jarod Bryant. I am so intrigued by option football that I've read books on it and have studied it for years. I can assure you, Bryant is a below-average option quarterback. He makes a terrible first read and that's the key to the option. How important is Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada? His own head coach said Bryant is a nice player but the offense is a different animal when Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada is under center. This is important because Rutgers doesn't have the perimeter speed to control Shaun White, who may be the fastest player in CFB. There is no reason whatsoever these two teams shouldn't surpass 70 points and get us an easy win.***3 UNIT PLAY***
triple-dime bet370 Arizona St. / 369 Georgia Over 50.0 BetUS
Analysis: I really love this spot for an easy over. Here's the deal: Both of these offenses didn't look good last week, so we are getting value here. But the reality is, ASU was sluggish because they were looking ahead and Georgia took on a South Carolina team that always plays them tough defensively. I expect two very different offenses in this game. One thing that can kill an over is a strong pass rush, which I don't believe either of these teams have. Rudy Carpenter should shred the Dogs defense, a defense I think is vastly overrated up front. On the other side, Georgia will be able to do whatever they want. I love taking overs when SEC teams go out of conference because they are so used to playing against physical defenses, teams like ASU are a breeze. I think the Dawgs will be very balanced offensively and both Moreno and Stafford will go off. Remember what Texas did to the Sun Devils last year in the Holiday Bowl? I see the Dawgs doing the same. I think this is going to be a very entertaining game to watch and I see us having no problem getting over 50 points here.***3 UNIT PLAY***
Sat, 09/20/08 - 3:30 PMTommy Rider | CFB Total
triple-dime bet330 Navy / 329 Rutgers Over 60.5 BetUS
Analysis: This is my classic run vs. pass over game. I love this spot for both teams. Rutgers has looked horrible in two games but Fresno State and NC have very strong defenses. Navy does not. Any team can throw the ball all over the Midshipmen so while Mike Teel is far from a superstar, he should easily throw for 350 yards and four scores here. On the other side, Navy gets starting QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada back, replacing average Jarod Bryant. I am so intrigued by option football that I've read books on it and have studied it for years. I can assure you, Bryant is a below-average option quarterback. He makes a terrible first read and that's the key to the option. How important is Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada? His own head coach said Bryant is a nice player but the offense is a different animal when Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada is under center. This is important because Rutgers doesn't have the perimeter speed to control Shaun White, who may be the fastest player in CFB. There is no reason whatsoever these two teams shouldn't surpass 70 points and get us an easy win.***3 UNIT PLAY***
Marc Lawrence Playbook Best Bets
NCAA Best Bet 5 (2-1, 67%)
BOSTON COLLEGE - 10 1/2
NCAA Best Bet 4 (1-2, 33%)
GEORGIA -7
Upset Game of the Week (0-2, 0%)
ARMY +10
5* BEST BET
Disappointing start for both programs with BC dropping its ACC opener
to Georgia Tech while UCF fell in overtime to bitter intrastate rival South
Florida. We’re not at all enamored with OT losers (see last week’s I’M A
LOSER article for more on this)… especially when the defeated squad
was outgained by a 504-226 margin! Since each team has had an extra
week to prepare, they’ll probably spend most of the time trying to revive
a pair of moribund offenses. A quick check of the ATS archives tells us
the Eagles are the more likely choice to succeed. Boston College stands
16-6 with rest when taking on .500 > non-conference foes and Jeff
Jagodzinski’s bunch has covered 15 of 19 opportunities when winning
SU as chalk versus .500 > opponents. Central Florida’s George O’Leary
does not fare well when taking to the highway off a loss, compiling
a weak 6-16 ATS record (0-4 playing out of conference). THIS JUST IN:
Game Three Bowlers off a SU favorite loss (like BC) are an outstanding
16-3-1 ATS versus a foe that was a dog of more than 8 points in its last
game. With UCF leaving Orlando for the fi rst time this season and Boston
College facing lowly Rhode Island the following week, we’ll look to fl y
like an eagle with the more-focused Beantown Boys.
BOSTON COLLEGE over C Florida by 21
4*BEST BET
You’ve got to hand it to Mark Richt. Last week’s SEC opener against South
Carolina looked like an after-hours parking lot brawl outside a redneck
bar but somehow the Georgia coach guided his Dawgs to a crucial 14-
7 win over the Gamecocks. Now comes the part of the schedule where
Richt shines: he’s 32-2 SU versus non-conference foes – 27-0 during the
regular season – plus he’s 26-4 SU and 19-11 ATS away from Athens. It
doesn’t also doesn’t hurt that Preseason No. 1 teams are 26-2 SU and 18-9
ATS in Game Fours. Since Arizona State’s jackrabbit 8-0 SU start last year,
the Sun Devils have cooled considerably, going just 4-4 SU and 1-6 ATS
(shocked last week in OT by UNLV, 23-20, as 25-point favorites). We can
sweeten the deal by telling you home teams off an overtime loss were
just 24-41-3 ATS entering this season when taking on a foe off a SU win.
The best of this week’s SMART BOX confi rms our choice – Dawgs rule in
the desert tonight.
Georgia over ARIZONA ST by 17
3* BEST BET
We’ll learn a lot about Joe Tiller and his Purdue team here. After
ripping through Oregon for 300 fi rst quarter yards and a 20-3 lead, the
Boilermaker offense inexplicably fi red blanks the rest of the way against
the Ducks – and before you could say ‘Donald’, Oregon had caught up
and forced overtime, eventually winning 32-26. That devastating loss puts
the Boilers smack in the middle of our classic ‘Home Favorite Letdown Off
An Overtime Loss’ scenario (see last week’s I’M A LOSER article). Central
Michigan may not get much attention but the Chippewas have averaged
9 wins per season over the last two campaigns and went bowling both
years. They also owe Purdue for a pair of SU defeats in 2007, a 23-point
embarrassment on this fi eld in Game Three and a narrow 3-point loss in
the Motor City Bowl. In a battle of top-notch quarterbacks, we expect
CMU’s Dan LeFevour to outduel the Boilers’ Curtis Painter and walk way
with a statement-making win.
Central Michigan over PURDUE by 1
UPSET Game of the Week
ARMY over Akron by 3
Army has been home to some very bad football lately. The Cadets have
managed just 23 SU wins in the last ten years and are off to a typical
start in ’08, getting undressed at West Point by 1-AA New Hampshire
on their way to an 0-2 start. That should be suffi cient to scare everyone
away from Army this week… everyone except us. Akron may have
had enough zip to pummel sorry Syracuse in Week Two but coach J.D.
Brookhart has NEVER covered as a road favorite (0-5 ATS) while leading
the Rubber City boys. He’s also a weak 1-6 ATS when taking on a < .500
foe coming off consecutive defeats. Army coach Stan Brock was beyond
frustrated after the 28-10 loss to New Hampshire, openly questioning
the effort of his players and apologizing to fans. With a bye week to
re-address fundamentals and team commitment, Army should also
benefi t from the numbers found in our DIRE STRAITS article on page 2.
With Brock commanding his team’s full attention, look for the Cadets
to improve to 4-1 ATS off back-to-back losses when skirmishing with
the MAC.
NCAA Best Bet 5 (2-1, 67%)
BOSTON COLLEGE - 10 1/2
NCAA Best Bet 4 (1-2, 33%)
GEORGIA -7
Upset Game of the Week (0-2, 0%)
ARMY +10
5* BEST BET
Disappointing start for both programs with BC dropping its ACC opener
to Georgia Tech while UCF fell in overtime to bitter intrastate rival South
Florida. We’re not at all enamored with OT losers (see last week’s I’M A
LOSER article for more on this)… especially when the defeated squad
was outgained by a 504-226 margin! Since each team has had an extra
week to prepare, they’ll probably spend most of the time trying to revive
a pair of moribund offenses. A quick check of the ATS archives tells us
the Eagles are the more likely choice to succeed. Boston College stands
16-6 with rest when taking on .500 > non-conference foes and Jeff
Jagodzinski’s bunch has covered 15 of 19 opportunities when winning
SU as chalk versus .500 > opponents. Central Florida’s George O’Leary
does not fare well when taking to the highway off a loss, compiling
a weak 6-16 ATS record (0-4 playing out of conference). THIS JUST IN:
Game Three Bowlers off a SU favorite loss (like BC) are an outstanding
16-3-1 ATS versus a foe that was a dog of more than 8 points in its last
game. With UCF leaving Orlando for the fi rst time this season and Boston
College facing lowly Rhode Island the following week, we’ll look to fl y
like an eagle with the more-focused Beantown Boys.
BOSTON COLLEGE over C Florida by 21
4*BEST BET
You’ve got to hand it to Mark Richt. Last week’s SEC opener against South
Carolina looked like an after-hours parking lot brawl outside a redneck
bar but somehow the Georgia coach guided his Dawgs to a crucial 14-
7 win over the Gamecocks. Now comes the part of the schedule where
Richt shines: he’s 32-2 SU versus non-conference foes – 27-0 during the
regular season – plus he’s 26-4 SU and 19-11 ATS away from Athens. It
doesn’t also doesn’t hurt that Preseason No. 1 teams are 26-2 SU and 18-9
ATS in Game Fours. Since Arizona State’s jackrabbit 8-0 SU start last year,
the Sun Devils have cooled considerably, going just 4-4 SU and 1-6 ATS
(shocked last week in OT by UNLV, 23-20, as 25-point favorites). We can
sweeten the deal by telling you home teams off an overtime loss were
just 24-41-3 ATS entering this season when taking on a foe off a SU win.
The best of this week’s SMART BOX confi rms our choice – Dawgs rule in
the desert tonight.
Georgia over ARIZONA ST by 17
3* BEST BET
We’ll learn a lot about Joe Tiller and his Purdue team here. After
ripping through Oregon for 300 fi rst quarter yards and a 20-3 lead, the
Boilermaker offense inexplicably fi red blanks the rest of the way against
the Ducks – and before you could say ‘Donald’, Oregon had caught up
and forced overtime, eventually winning 32-26. That devastating loss puts
the Boilers smack in the middle of our classic ‘Home Favorite Letdown Off
An Overtime Loss’ scenario (see last week’s I’M A LOSER article). Central
Michigan may not get much attention but the Chippewas have averaged
9 wins per season over the last two campaigns and went bowling both
years. They also owe Purdue for a pair of SU defeats in 2007, a 23-point
embarrassment on this fi eld in Game Three and a narrow 3-point loss in
the Motor City Bowl. In a battle of top-notch quarterbacks, we expect
CMU’s Dan LeFevour to outduel the Boilers’ Curtis Painter and walk way
with a statement-making win.
Central Michigan over PURDUE by 1
UPSET Game of the Week
ARMY over Akron by 3
Army has been home to some very bad football lately. The Cadets have
managed just 23 SU wins in the last ten years and are off to a typical
start in ’08, getting undressed at West Point by 1-AA New Hampshire
on their way to an 0-2 start. That should be suffi cient to scare everyone
away from Army this week… everyone except us. Akron may have
had enough zip to pummel sorry Syracuse in Week Two but coach J.D.
Brookhart has NEVER covered as a road favorite (0-5 ATS) while leading
the Rubber City boys. He’s also a weak 1-6 ATS when taking on a < .500
foe coming off consecutive defeats. Army coach Stan Brock was beyond
frustrated after the 28-10 loss to New Hampshire, openly questioning
the effort of his players and apologizing to fans. With a bye week to
re-address fundamentals and team commitment, Army should also
benefi t from the numbers found in our DIRE STRAITS article on page 2.
With Brock commanding his team’s full attention, look for the Cadets
to improve to 4-1 ATS off back-to-back losses when skirmishing with
the MAC.
