NCAAF NEWS AND NOTES
College Football Top 25 Cheat Sheet: Week 3
By PATRICK GARBIN
Arkansas Razorbacks at Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5, 54)
Why Arkansas will cover: Since the start of 2004, Georgia has struggled at home against the number, going 12-21-1 ATS.
Why Georgia will cover: Arkansas has lost seven consecutive (2-5 ATS) playing in true road games. Quarterback Ryan Mallett completed only 39 percent of his passes in four true road games a year ago.
Total: The Hogs and Dogs might be two of the most improved defenses in the SEC and have combined to allow just 8.5 points per game this season.
Ohio Bobcats at Ohio State Buckeyes (-30.5, 45.5)
Why Ohio will cover: In the two recent meetings (1999, 2008) between the teams, the Bobcats covered both games by an average of more than 20 points.
Why Ohio State will cover: The Buckeyes are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
Total: Dating back to last season, Ohio has averaged only 219 total yards and scored just six offensive touchdowns in its previous four games.
Kent State Golden Flashes at Penn State Nittany Lions (-21, 45)
Why Kent State will cover: Penn State continues to prove why it is arguably the most overrated team in the nation. Some question how it could beat any team by three touchdowns or more.
Why Penn State will cover: The Nittany Lions have defeated 20 non-BCS teams in a row by an average of 34 points.
Total: The under is 8-2 in Penn State’s last 10 games at home and 6-2 in Kent State’s last eight games on the road.
Maryland Terrapins at West Virginia Mountaineers (-10, 44.5)
Why Maryland will cover: The Terrapins have covered their last four games after going just 13-23-1 ATS in their previous 37 overall.
Why West Virginia will cover: There is line value here because of West Virginia’s poor performance against Marshall. The Mountaineers are much better than perceived, plus, have an extra day to prepare.
Total: In its last four games, including against noteworthy offenses of Florida State, Boston College, and Navy, Maryland is allowing just 16.3 points per game.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Duke Blue Devils (-23.5, 57)
Why Alabama will cover: The Crimson Tide have recently been one of the best teams against the number, going 21-9 ATS since their 2007 bowl game.
Why Duke will cover: This is the perfect spot for a Blue Devil cover. Alabama has had consecutive easy victories and could be looking forward to playing at Arkansas next week.
Total: Duke’s defense is twice as bad as its offense is good. In their last five games, the Blue Devils are allowing 42 points and 484 yards per game.
Air Force Falcons at Oklahoma Sooners (-17, 54.5)
Why Air Force will cover: The Falcons are 10-6-1 ATS in away games during the coach Troy Calhoun era.
Why Oklahoma will cover: The Sooners’ run defense is unyielding. After allowing just 2.8 yards per rush a year ago, Oklahoma is giving up only 2.9 this season.
Total: Both teams’ defenses, especially Air Force’s, is better than most realize. The Sooners and Falcons ranked in the top 10 in the nation in scoring defense in 2009.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Washington Huskies (+3, 53.5)
Why Nebraska will cover: Washington’s wide-open offense plays right into Nebraska’s strength on defense. The Cornhuskers have arguably the best secondary in the country.
Why Washington will cover: The Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
Total: Since the beginning of last season, Nebraska is allowing less than 11 points per game.
Arizona State Sun Devils at Wisconsin Badgers (-14, 46.5)
Why Arizona State will cover: The Sun Devils have been horrid when playing on the road, going 8-21-1 ATS as an away underdog since 2001, including 2-6-1 under coach Dennis Erickson.
Why Wisconsin will cover: A sub-par Arizona State team must travel nearly across the country to face one of the Big 10’s best in one of the tougher stadiums to play.
Total: The Under is 21-7-3 in Arizona State’s last 31 road games.
Florida Gators at Tennessee Volunteers (+14, 46)
Why Florida will cover: Despite their slow start to the season, the Gators have been one of the best teams against the number, going 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
Why Tennessee will cover: There is line value here: Florida is not the same team as previous years while the Volunteers, as they have demonstrated in recent seasons, are steadily getting better as the year progresses.
Total: This game has been a defensive battle recently. Four of the last 5 meetings have gone under the total.
Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs (-21.5, 52.5)
Why Baylor will cover: The Bears are an impressive 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.
Why TCU will cover: Baylor’s inexperience will be no match for TCU’s tested squad, especially considering how well the Horned Frogs play at home.
Total: Although Baylor might be an untried team, directed by quarterback Robert Griffin, the Bears can put points on the board. TCU has scored 30 or more points in nine consecutive regular-season games.
Clemson at Auburn (-7.5, 55)
Why Clemson will cover: As long as they are underdogs of a touchdown or more, the Tigers’ explosive offense can nearly cover the spread by itself, especially against a below-average Auburn defense.
Why Auburn will cover: This could be another example of an ACC team exhibiting that it’s no match against another BCS team, especially when facing Auburn’s high-powered offense on the road.
Total: Playing the under would be a huge risk, considering the number of points both of these teams have scored (and allowed) the last two seasons.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers (-7.5, 43.5)
Why Mississippi State will cover: Coach Dan Mullen has his Bulldogs steadily improving, especially in their running game and defense, and it’s only a matter of time until they pull an upset on the road.
Why LSU will cover: The Tigers have owned the series, winning the last 10 in a row by an average of 27 points.
Total: Usually because of LSU’s points alone, the over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings of these teams.
Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+3, 52)
Why Texas will cover: The Longhorns pit their stout defense against a Red Raider team with no running game and a new head coach.
Why Texas Tech will cover: Texas has been disappointing and is not as good as most think. The Longhorns giving a field goal or more in this game is based purely on their reputation.
Total: Defensive-minded Tommy Tuberville and a Texas offense playing a third-stringer at left tackle while switching its main running backs should keep the combined points down.
Utah Utes at New Mexico Lobos (+22.5, 54)
Why Utah will cover: Under coach Kyle Whittingham, the Utes have thrived as heavy favorites, going 13-7 ATS as double-digit favorites, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven when giving 20 or more points.
Why New Mexico will cover: The Lobos have been playing well against conference opponents, covering four of their last five games against MWC foes.
Total: After being one of the worst teams in college football in scoring defense a season ago, New Mexico has continued the trend into 2010, allowing 124 points in its first two games.
Boise State Broncos at Wyoming Cowboys (+23.5, 52.5)
Why Boise State will cover: The Broncos want to look impressive for poll voters since their win over Virginia Tech in game one has become significantly lessened after the Hokies’ loss to James Madison.
Why Wyoming will cover: The Cowboys have covered all three games they’ve played against Boise State since 2003, plus, they are 9-3 ATS as underdogs since the start of last season.
Total: As was the case last year, Wyoming is allowing 27 points per game this season while Boise State’s reputable defense has allowed five of its last seven opponents to score 21 points or more.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Arizona Wildcats (+1.5, 42.5)
Why Iowa will cover: While the Hawkeyes are one of the better teams in the nation, Arizona is untested and unproven.
Why Arizona will cover: The Wildcats are historically tough at home and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games at Arizona Stadium.
Total: Arizona has a reputation as a defensive team; however, the Wildcats are allowing more than 26 points per game to BCS opponents since the start of the 2009 season.
Houston Cougars at UCLA Bruins (+3, 60)
Why Houston will cover: While the Cougars have forced five turnovers in two games this season, UCLA has a minus-7 turnover margin in its last four games.
Why UCLA will cover: Against non-BCS teams at home, the Bruins are nearly unbeatable, winning 23 of their last 24 games with a scoring margin of 25 points.
Total: The Over is 6-2 in Houston’s last eight road games and 6-2 in UCLA’s last eight non-conference games.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Stanford Cardinal (-17, 59.5)
Why Wake Forest will cover: Under coach Jim Grobe, the Demon Deacons always seem well prepared for the “good” teams, going 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games against teams with winning records.
Why Stanford will cover: As evident by its impressive win at UCLA, the Cardinal could be the best team in the Pac-10 and are certainly out for revenge following last year’s loss at Wake Forest.
Total: With the recent announcement that Wake Forest will start freshman Tanner Price at quarterback and “we don’t want to put too much pressure on him,” according to Grobe, points could be at a premium for this expected shootout.