EZWINNERS
1 STAR SELECTION
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
(910) Colorado Rockies -$110
(Risking $110 to win $100) (Action)
1 STAR SELECTION
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
(911) Arizona Diamondbacks +$135
(Risking $100 to win $135) (Action)
1 STAR SELECTION
Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
(927) Houston Astros +$140
(Risking $100 to win $140) (Action)
1 STAR SELECTION
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
(910) Colorado Rockies -$110
(Risking $110 to win $100) (Action)
1 STAR SELECTION
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
(911) Arizona Diamondbacks +$135
(Risking $100 to win $135) (Action)
1 STAR SELECTION
Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
(927) Houston Astros +$140
(Risking $100 to win $140) (Action)
Jeff Clement
MLB Inter League 8 Unit Play!
Texas Rangers vs. New York Mets
New York Mets -131
Texas(37-49) vs. New York Mets(38-48). C.Lewis(5-5) ERA 5.71 vs. B.Colon(8-6) ERA 3.88. The Rangers have lost 6 straight and are 1-11 last 12 road games. The Mets are 8-0 last 8 Inter League games as a favorite and 7-2 last 9 Colon starts. The Rangers are 0-4 last 4 Lewis starts against Inter League teams and the losing streak continues today.
New York Mets are a 8 Unit Play!
MLB Inter League 8 Unit Play!
Texas Rangers vs. New York Mets
New York Mets -131
Texas(37-49) vs. New York Mets(38-48). C.Lewis(5-5) ERA 5.71 vs. B.Colon(8-6) ERA 3.88. The Rangers have lost 6 straight and are 1-11 last 12 road games. The Mets are 8-0 last 8 Inter League games as a favorite and 7-2 last 9 Colon starts. The Rangers are 0-4 last 4 Lewis starts against Inter League teams and the losing streak continues today.
New York Mets are a 8 Unit Play!
HALL OF FAME PICKS / William Holloway
Dodgers(-117)
The Dodgers are playing great ball having won 7 of 10, while the Rockies have lost 9 of 10. And giving the ball to Dan Haren looking to build off his best performance of the season should make for another win for the Blue. Colorado starters have a 7.65 ERA over their last 18 matches, and with 3 of their top hitters still out, its gonna be hard to break this losing streak.
Dodgers(-117)
The Dodgers are playing great ball having won 7 of 10, while the Rockies have lost 9 of 10. And giving the ball to Dan Haren looking to build off his best performance of the season should make for another win for the Blue. Colorado starters have a 7.65 ERA over their last 18 matches, and with 3 of their top hitters still out, its gonna be hard to break this losing streak.
SOCCER BETTING MASTERS
Netherlands vs Costa Rica
At this point in the World Cup, the Dutch know plenty about Costa
Rica — once one of the surprise packages of the tournament. What
they may not know is that Costa Rica’s Jorge Luis Pinto learned his
coaching from the Dutchman who invented ‘total football’.
Well-traveled Colombian coach Pinto studied at the University of
Cologne early in the 1980s when Dutch coach Rinus Michels was
coaching the city’s Bundesliga club.
Michels was a good teacher — a few years later he would lead the
Netherlands to its one and only international title, the 1988
European Championship, having pioneered the ‘total football’
approach — where players can change their positions during a game.
Now Pinto aims to stop the Dutch taking another step toward their
first world title when his Costa Rica team meets the Netherlands on
Saturday in the quarterfinals at Salvador’s Arena Fonte Nova.
It is not only Pinto who knows the Dutch game well. Bryan Ruiz had
a successful spell with FC Twente before joining Fulham and now
plays at PSV Eindhoven alongside likely Netherlands starter
Georginio Wijnaldum and super-sub Memphis Depay.
Ruiz has teamed up with a strong, fast-paced striker in Joel
Campbell, propelling Costa Rica to the surprise top spot in a Group
D that also included England, Italy and Uruguay. Pinto’s team also
has a miserly defense that has conceded just two goals in the
tournament so far.
Not surprisingly, Costa Rica will be attempting to shut down the
Dutch striking partnership of Robben and Robin van Persie, who are
looking to get back on the scoring sheet after combining for six
goals in their team’s first two matches but failing to find the net
since.
The winner in Salvador goes on to a semifinal against either
Belgium or Argentina in Sao Paulo on July 9.
Costa Rica will be without defender Oscar Duarte after he was sent
off in the 66th minute of their penalty shootout victory over
Greece. Goalkeeper Keylor Navas skipped training on Wednesday with
a sore shoulder, but he is expected to be fit to play.
The lengthening Dutch injury list is creating problems for coach
Louis van Gaal, who is fast running out of fit midfielders.
AC Milan strongman Nigel de Jong may have played his last World Cup
match in Brazil after tearing a groin muscle early in the
second-round defeat of Mexico. Leroy Fer also is in doubt with a
hamstring injury he picked up in training the day after scoring the
crucial opening goal in the Netherlands 2-0 defeat of Chile.
Van Gaal could push left back Daley Blind from defense to midfield
or opt for Feyenoord’s Jordie Clasie, who has yet to play in Brazil
and has only eight caps to his name.
Van Gaal’s most experienced midfielder, Wesley Sneijder, appears to
be running into form at just the right time.
The team’s top scorer in South Africa four years ago broke his
Brazil duck against Mexico with a sizzling drive in the 88th
minute, after substitute Klaas Jan Huntelaar had headed the ball
back. Substitute Huntelaar then calmly slotted home a stoppage time
penalty, but he said the assist for Sneijder was his most important
touch.
Our opinion for this match is that Neterhlands will take the win in
this contest.
Netherlands vs Costa Rica
At this point in the World Cup, the Dutch know plenty about Costa
Rica — once one of the surprise packages of the tournament. What
they may not know is that Costa Rica’s Jorge Luis Pinto learned his
coaching from the Dutchman who invented ‘total football’.
Well-traveled Colombian coach Pinto studied at the University of
Cologne early in the 1980s when Dutch coach Rinus Michels was
coaching the city’s Bundesliga club.
Michels was a good teacher — a few years later he would lead the
Netherlands to its one and only international title, the 1988
European Championship, having pioneered the ‘total football’
approach — where players can change their positions during a game.
Now Pinto aims to stop the Dutch taking another step toward their
first world title when his Costa Rica team meets the Netherlands on
Saturday in the quarterfinals at Salvador’s Arena Fonte Nova.
It is not only Pinto who knows the Dutch game well. Bryan Ruiz had
a successful spell with FC Twente before joining Fulham and now
plays at PSV Eindhoven alongside likely Netherlands starter
Georginio Wijnaldum and super-sub Memphis Depay.
Ruiz has teamed up with a strong, fast-paced striker in Joel
Campbell, propelling Costa Rica to the surprise top spot in a Group
D that also included England, Italy and Uruguay. Pinto’s team also
has a miserly defense that has conceded just two goals in the
tournament so far.
Not surprisingly, Costa Rica will be attempting to shut down the
Dutch striking partnership of Robben and Robin van Persie, who are
looking to get back on the scoring sheet after combining for six
goals in their team’s first two matches but failing to find the net
since.
The winner in Salvador goes on to a semifinal against either
Belgium or Argentina in Sao Paulo on July 9.
Costa Rica will be without defender Oscar Duarte after he was sent
off in the 66th minute of their penalty shootout victory over
Greece. Goalkeeper Keylor Navas skipped training on Wednesday with
a sore shoulder, but he is expected to be fit to play.
The lengthening Dutch injury list is creating problems for coach
Louis van Gaal, who is fast running out of fit midfielders.
AC Milan strongman Nigel de Jong may have played his last World Cup
match in Brazil after tearing a groin muscle early in the
second-round defeat of Mexico. Leroy Fer also is in doubt with a
hamstring injury he picked up in training the day after scoring the
crucial opening goal in the Netherlands 2-0 defeat of Chile.
Van Gaal could push left back Daley Blind from defense to midfield
or opt for Feyenoord’s Jordie Clasie, who has yet to play in Brazil
and has only eight caps to his name.
Van Gaal’s most experienced midfielder, Wesley Sneijder, appears to
be running into form at just the right time.
The team’s top scorer in South Africa four years ago broke his
Brazil duck against Mexico with a sizzling drive in the 88th
minute, after substitute Klaas Jan Huntelaar had headed the ball
back. Substitute Huntelaar then calmly slotted home a stoppage time
penalty, but he said the assist for Sneijder was his most important
touch.
Our opinion for this match is that Neterhlands will take the win in
this contest.
Ecks and Bacon
Ben lee lost both plays on Friday in World Cup Soccer Germany/France Over 2.5 and a $25 play on the Draw +$250.
"Mr Chalk's" play on Friday in the American League Red Sox -$147/Orioles was Ppd.
For Saturday in the Woman's Final at Wimbledon E&B like E Bouchard +$120/P Kvitova for$25.
For Saturday in World Cup Soccer E&b like Netherlands -$190/Costa Rica for $50.
For Saturday in MLB in the National League "Mr Chalk" likes the Nationals -$142/Cubs.
Ben lee is 4-4+$140 for week Thirty Six 166-193-5 -$2989
"Mr Chalk" is 45-34 -$346 for the 2014 MLB season.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
Ben lee lost both plays on Friday in World Cup Soccer Germany/France Over 2.5 and a $25 play on the Draw +$250.
"Mr Chalk's" play on Friday in the American League Red Sox -$147/Orioles was Ppd.
For Saturday in the Woman's Final at Wimbledon E&B like E Bouchard +$120/P Kvitova for$25.
For Saturday in World Cup Soccer E&b like Netherlands -$190/Costa Rica for $50.
For Saturday in MLB in the National League "Mr Chalk" likes the Nationals -$142/Cubs.
Ben lee is 4-4+$140 for week Thirty Six 166-193-5 -$2989
"Mr Chalk" is 45-34 -$346 for the 2014 MLB season.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
Octagon locks
Top Play: (UFC 175)
1 Star Chris Weidman (-175)- Weidman is a very well rounded fighter with amazing grappling. He also has good enough wrestling to get this fight to the ground where he can land ground and pound and work for subs. Machida is a very well rounded fighter also and looks to counter his opponents. Machida is not very active in his striking but is still a dangerous opponent with solid power. I don't think Machida will TKO Weidman and I don't think he will be active enough to win a Decision. I do think Weidman has more ways to win this fight and could even finish the fight.
Top Parlay: (WSOF 11)
1 Star Justin Gaethje; Melvin Guillard (+101)
UFC 175 Predictions:
Weidman 4th Rd TKO
Rousey 2nd Rd Sub
Mitrione 2nd Rd TKO
Doane UD
Faber 2nd Rd Sub
Roberston UD
Camozzi UD
Roop UD
Vasconcelos 2nd Rd Sub
Bush UD
WSOF 11 Predictions:
Gaethje 1st Rd TKO
Fitch UD
Guillard 2nd Rd TKO
Bollinger UD
Top Play: (UFC 175)
1 Star Chris Weidman (-175)- Weidman is a very well rounded fighter with amazing grappling. He also has good enough wrestling to get this fight to the ground where he can land ground and pound and work for subs. Machida is a very well rounded fighter also and looks to counter his opponents. Machida is not very active in his striking but is still a dangerous opponent with solid power. I don't think Machida will TKO Weidman and I don't think he will be active enough to win a Decision. I do think Weidman has more ways to win this fight and could even finish the fight.
Top Parlay: (WSOF 11)
1 Star Justin Gaethje; Melvin Guillard (+101)
UFC 175 Predictions:
Weidman 4th Rd TKO
Rousey 2nd Rd Sub
Mitrione 2nd Rd TKO
Doane UD
Faber 2nd Rd Sub
Roberston UD
Camozzi UD
Roop UD
Vasconcelos 2nd Rd Sub
Bush UD
WSOF 11 Predictions:
Gaethje 1st Rd TKO
Fitch UD
Guillard 2nd Rd TKO
Bollinger UD
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS AL PITCHING REPORT
SATURDAY, JULY 5TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________
#915 NY YANKEES @ #916 MINNESOTA - 2:10 PM
•Yankees RH David Phelps (3-4, 4.26 ERA, WHIP: 1.408) - Phelps has bounced back from a four-start losing streak by going 2-0 over his last four turns, although he has not been sharp in back-to-back no-decisions. He gave up a pair of solo homers and three walks over 5 2/3 innings versus Tampa Bay last time out and was pelted for six runs in five frames at Toronto on June 24. Phelps beat the Twins on the Fourth of July a year ago, giving up four runs in 6 1/3 innings.
•Twins RH Yohan Pino (0-2, 6.32 ERA, WHIP: 1.404) - Pino quickly has regressed after a strong major-league debut, when he struck out seven and yielded two runs on five hits over seven innings against the Chicago White Sox. A career minor-leaguer, the 30-year-old Venezuelan has surrendered nine runs and 14 hits over 8 2/3 frames in consecutive losses to Kansas City and the Los Angeles Angels. Pino still is seeking his first major-league win in his fourth career start.
#917 SEATTLE @ #918 CHI WHITE SOX - 2:10 PM
•Mariners RH Felix Hernandez (10-2, 2.10 ERA, WHIP: 0.920) - Hernandez went 3-1 with a 1.22 ERA and 54 strikeouts in his six June starts and 6-1, 1.30 in his last nine turns, and yielded only Lonnie Chisenhall's bouncer up the middle in the fifth that barely eluded second baseman Robinson Cano. The 28-year-old Venezuelan has reeled off nine straight quality starts and positioned himself as the likely starter for the AL in the All-Star Game. Hernandez, though, is 4-5 with a 3.79 ERA in 14 starts against Chicago - 1-5, 4.88 in eight turns at U.S. Cellular Field.
--KEY STAT: HERNANDEZ is 14-25 (-19.3 Units) against the money line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HERNANDEZ 3.3, OPPONENT 4.0.
--HERNANDEZ is 12-2 against the run line (+12.4 Units) versus an American League team with they batting average of .265 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was HERNANDEZ 5.7, OPPONENT 2.7.
•White Sox LH Jose Quintana (5-7, 3.44 ERA, WHIP: 1.280) - Quintana allowed three hits and struck out seven in seven innings of a 4-0 victory at Toronto on Sunday - the White Sox's only shutout of the season - and is unbeaten in his last three starts while recording a 1.29 ERA during that span. "He was attacking the zone,'' White Sox manager Robin Ventura said of the 25-year-old Colombian. "If he can get ahead and stay there, and mix speeds like he did (Sunday), he's tough." Quintana is 0-0 with a 6.97 ERA in three games (two starts) against Seattle.
--KEY STAT: QUINTANA is 19-6 UNDER (+12.1 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was QUINTANA 3.2, OPPONENT 3.9.
--QUINTANA is 18-7 UNDER (+10.0 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was QUINTANA 3.5, OPPONENT 3.6.
--QUINTANA is 27-11 UNDER (+14.6 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was QUINTANA 3.7, OPPONENT 3.5.
#919 TAMPA BAY @ #920 DETROIT - 4:05 PM
•Rays RH Chris Archer (4-5, 3.24 ERA, WHIP: 1.300) - Archer has surrendered two runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts but has gone only 2-3 over that span, due in part to the Rays scoring only nine runs over six contests. He did not factor in the decision last time out despite giving up two runs over seven innings at the New York Yankees. Archer's only road victory came on May 16 at the Los Angeles Angels as he is 1-3 with a 3.86 in nine starts away from home.
•Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez (5-2, 2.63 ERA, WHIP: 0.976) - Sanchez rebounded from his worst outing of the season by giving up three runs (two earned) over seven innings in a no-decision versus Oakland last time out. He permitted a season-high four runs in 5 1/3 frames at Texas in his previous turn but still managed to win his third straight start. Sanchez has surrendered more than three runs only once this season and has recorded seven quality starts in his last eight outings.
#921 KANSAS CITY @ #922 CLEVELAND - 7:05 PM
•Royals RH Jeremy Guthrie (5-6, 3.69 ERA, WHIP: 1.220) - Guthrie is 3-0 over his last four starts while giving up nine runs (seven earned) over 26 2/3 innings combined after going 11 games without a win. The 35-year-old Oregonian has allowed 16 homers in 17 starts, but only four in his last eight turns. Jason Kipnis is 8-for-14 with two homers against Guthrie, who is 4-4 in 11 career appearances (nine starts) with a 5.37 ERA versus Cleveland.
--KEY STAT: GUTHRIE is 16-6 (+10.4 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GUTHRIE 4.9, OPPONENT 3.2.
--GUTHRIE is 15-6 (+10.2 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GUTHRIE 4.9, OPPONENT 3.5.
--GUTHRIE is 18-4 UNDER (+13.3 Units) in road games versus an American League team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was GUTHRIE 3.1, OPPONENT 3.2.
--GUTHRIE is 13-2 UNDER (+10.7 Units) on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GUTHRIE 3.0, OPPONENT 3.1.
•Indians LH T.J. House (0-2, 4.28 ERA, WHIP: 1.484) - House has yielded two or fewer runs in four of the first six starts of his career, including Sunday against Seattle when he permitted two (one earned) in six innings. The 24-year-old has surrendered five homers – two in his first start – and opponents are batting .301 against him. House, a 16th-round pick by the Indians in 2008, was 1-3 with a 3.20 ERA at Triple-A Columbus.
Doubleheader Game #2
#923 BALTIMORE @ #924 BOSTON - 7:15 PM
•Orioles RH Ubaldo Jimenez (3-8, 4.31 ERA, WHIP: 1.479) - Jimenez's up-and-down campaign continued Monday against Texas, limited the Rangers to an unearned run in a season-high eight innings. Most importantly, he walked just one batter and has issued only three free passes in his last two outings after allowing 20 walks against 12 strikeouts in his previous four appearances. Jimenez has given up one earned run in each of his last three road starts but has been reached for 10 runs in 9 2/3 frames over two career outings in Boston.
--KEY STAT: JIMENEZ is 7-20 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in road games versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was JIMENEZ 3.0, OPPONENT 5.1.
--JIMENEZ is 15-4 OVER (+11.1 Units) in road games versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was JIMENEZ 4.9, OPPONENT 5.6.
•Red Sox RH John Lackey (9-5, 3.62 ERA, WHIP: 1.205) - Lackey is in pursuit of his 11th straight season (barring 2012, which he sat out due to Tommy John surgery) with at least 10 victories. He picked up his ninth of this campaign at New York on Sunday despite giving up five runs in five innings. Lackey, who gave up six runs on a season high-tying 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings against Baltimore on April 18, has allowed 11 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings since a masterful shutout of Minnesota on June 18.
--KEY STAT: LACKEY is 48-25 UNDER (+19.4 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 4.2, OPPONENT 4.1.
--LACKEY is 17-1 UNDER (+15.9 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 3.8, OPPONENT 3.3.
_____________________________________________
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____________________________
#925 TORONTO @ #926 OAKLAND - 10:05 PM
•Blue Jays LH Mark Buehrle (10-5, 2.50 ERA, WHIP: 1.214) - Although his winless drought reached five starts, Buehrle turned in his best performance in four weeks last time out by limiting the Chicago White Sox - his former club - to two runs over eight innings in a 4-0 defeat. The veteran has struggled with the long ball during his slump, allowing six homers after yielding only two in his first 12 turns. Buehrle has seen plenty of the Athletics in his career, going 8-13 with a 3.63 ERA.
--KEY STAT: BUEHRLE is 10-1 (+9.8 Units) against the money line against American League West opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUEHRLE 5.1, OPPONENT 2.9.
--BUEHRLE is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) versus an American League team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUEHRLE 3.0, OPPONENT 1.9.
•Athletics LH Scott Kazmir (9-3, 2.61 ERA, WHIP: 1.026) - Kazmir was bothered by a leg cramp in his last outing at Detroit and exited after permitting one run on four hits over 5 1/3 innings. It was a nice bounce-back effort from his previous turn, when he was hammered for seven runs on eight hits - including three homers - in three frames against the New York Mets. Kazmir is 5-1 with a superb 1.61 ERA in seven home starts this season and has won four straight at O.co Coliseum while allowing a total of three earned runs.
--KEY STAT: KAZMIR is 24-6 (+15.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 5.6, OPPONENT 2.5.
#927 HOUSTON @ #928 LA ANGELS - 10:05 PM
•Astros RH Scott Feldman (4-5, 3.92 ERA, WHIP: 1.308) - Feldman is hoping to build on a strong finish in June, when he had four straight starts with three or fewer runs allowed. “I know I’ll have some more good outings and probably some bad ones, too,” Feldman told reporters. “I like where I’m headed at this point.” Howie Kendrick is 10-for-22 with a home run against the 31-year-old, who is 5-7 with a 5.05 ERA in 23 career games (14 starts) against the Angels, including 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA in two starts this season.
--KEY STAT: FELDMAN is 7-22 (-16.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was FELDMAN 3.6, OPPONENT 4.8.
•Angels LH Hector Santiago (0-7, 4.08 ERA, WHIP: 1.321) - Santiago was denied his first win of the season last Saturday when he was pulled during a rain delay after tossing four scoreless innings against Kansas City. The 26-year-old has begun each of his last three starts with at least four scoreless frames, and he brings a streak of 8 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings at Angel Stadium into Saturday’s contest. Santiago has a 0-1 mark with a 5.19 ERA in three career games (one start) against Houston.
--KEY STAT: SANTIAGO is 4-16 (-12.7 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANTIAGO 3.5, OPPONENT 5.7.
Doubleheader Game #1
#931 BALTIMORE @ #932 BOSTON - 1:05 PM
•Orioles RH Miguel Gonzalez (4-5, 4.56 ERA, WHIP: 1.562) - Gonzalez has failed to last any longer than five innings in his last three starts, giving up 10 runs on 25 hits in 14 2/3 rocky innings during that span. He has served up five home runs and has nine walks against just eight strikeouts in the three-start slump. Gonzalez, who has a 5.54 ERA on the road this year, is 3-0 with a 3.13 ERA in five career appearances against Boston.
--KEY STAT: GONZALEZ is 12-3 OVER (+9.1 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GONZALEZ 4.8, OPPONENT 5.8.
•Red Sox LH Jon Lester (9-7, 2.92 ERA, WHIP: 1.184) - Since a rough outing at Detroit on June 7, Lester has gone 3-0 with a 1.21 ERA over a stretch of four dominant starts. The Red Sox are 4-0 in those outings and 5-11 in all other games since the surge began June 12. Lester, who is 15-4 with a 2.92 ERA in his career versus Baltimore, has lasted at least five innings in all 26 starts against the Orioles, the longest active such streak in the majors.
--KEY STAT: LESTER is 5-13 (-11.6 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LESTER 3.3, OPPONENT 4.7.
--LESTER is 12-2 UNDER (+9.6 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LESTER 3.6, OPPONENT 2.8.
Interleague
#929 TEXAS @ #930 NY METS - 7:15 PM
•Rangers RH Colby Lewis (5-5, 5.71 ERA, WHIP: 1.744) - Lewis is coming off his first quality start of the season but settled for a no-decision after allowing two runs on five hits and striking out eight over six innings against Minnesota on Sunday. The 34-year-old has won only one of his last six outings, notching a victory at Oakland on June 16 despite surrendering five runs and 10 hits in 5 1/3 frames. Lewis is 0-1 with a 14.29 ERA in three career games - one start - against the Mets.
•Mets RH Bartolo Colon (8-6, 3.88 ERA, WHIP: 1.162) - Colon had his eight-start unbeaten streak snapped Sunday, when he was tagged for five runs and seven hits in six innings at Pittsburgh. The 41-year-old Dominican went 6-0 during his streak and allowed fewer than three earned runs in seven straight outings prior to facing the Pirates. Colon has had considerable success against Texas over his career, going 20-8 with a 3.47 ERA in 33 starts.
--KEY STAT: COLON is 15-5 (+10.1 Units) against the money line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COLON 4.4, OPPONENT 2.5.
--COLON is 7-0 (+7.6 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COLON 5.4, OPPONENT 1.6.
________________________________________________
SATURDAY, JULY 5TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________
#915 NY YANKEES @ #916 MINNESOTA - 2:10 PM
•Yankees RH David Phelps (3-4, 4.26 ERA, WHIP: 1.408) - Phelps has bounced back from a four-start losing streak by going 2-0 over his last four turns, although he has not been sharp in back-to-back no-decisions. He gave up a pair of solo homers and three walks over 5 2/3 innings versus Tampa Bay last time out and was pelted for six runs in five frames at Toronto on June 24. Phelps beat the Twins on the Fourth of July a year ago, giving up four runs in 6 1/3 innings.
•Twins RH Yohan Pino (0-2, 6.32 ERA, WHIP: 1.404) - Pino quickly has regressed after a strong major-league debut, when he struck out seven and yielded two runs on five hits over seven innings against the Chicago White Sox. A career minor-leaguer, the 30-year-old Venezuelan has surrendered nine runs and 14 hits over 8 2/3 frames in consecutive losses to Kansas City and the Los Angeles Angels. Pino still is seeking his first major-league win in his fourth career start.
#917 SEATTLE @ #918 CHI WHITE SOX - 2:10 PM
•Mariners RH Felix Hernandez (10-2, 2.10 ERA, WHIP: 0.920) - Hernandez went 3-1 with a 1.22 ERA and 54 strikeouts in his six June starts and 6-1, 1.30 in his last nine turns, and yielded only Lonnie Chisenhall's bouncer up the middle in the fifth that barely eluded second baseman Robinson Cano. The 28-year-old Venezuelan has reeled off nine straight quality starts and positioned himself as the likely starter for the AL in the All-Star Game. Hernandez, though, is 4-5 with a 3.79 ERA in 14 starts against Chicago - 1-5, 4.88 in eight turns at U.S. Cellular Field.
--KEY STAT: HERNANDEZ is 14-25 (-19.3 Units) against the money line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HERNANDEZ 3.3, OPPONENT 4.0.
--HERNANDEZ is 12-2 against the run line (+12.4 Units) versus an American League team with they batting average of .265 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was HERNANDEZ 5.7, OPPONENT 2.7.
•White Sox LH Jose Quintana (5-7, 3.44 ERA, WHIP: 1.280) - Quintana allowed three hits and struck out seven in seven innings of a 4-0 victory at Toronto on Sunday - the White Sox's only shutout of the season - and is unbeaten in his last three starts while recording a 1.29 ERA during that span. "He was attacking the zone,'' White Sox manager Robin Ventura said of the 25-year-old Colombian. "If he can get ahead and stay there, and mix speeds like he did (Sunday), he's tough." Quintana is 0-0 with a 6.97 ERA in three games (two starts) against Seattle.
--KEY STAT: QUINTANA is 19-6 UNDER (+12.1 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was QUINTANA 3.2, OPPONENT 3.9.
--QUINTANA is 18-7 UNDER (+10.0 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was QUINTANA 3.5, OPPONENT 3.6.
--QUINTANA is 27-11 UNDER (+14.6 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was QUINTANA 3.7, OPPONENT 3.5.
#919 TAMPA BAY @ #920 DETROIT - 4:05 PM
•Rays RH Chris Archer (4-5, 3.24 ERA, WHIP: 1.300) - Archer has surrendered two runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts but has gone only 2-3 over that span, due in part to the Rays scoring only nine runs over six contests. He did not factor in the decision last time out despite giving up two runs over seven innings at the New York Yankees. Archer's only road victory came on May 16 at the Los Angeles Angels as he is 1-3 with a 3.86 in nine starts away from home.
•Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez (5-2, 2.63 ERA, WHIP: 0.976) - Sanchez rebounded from his worst outing of the season by giving up three runs (two earned) over seven innings in a no-decision versus Oakland last time out. He permitted a season-high four runs in 5 1/3 frames at Texas in his previous turn but still managed to win his third straight start. Sanchez has surrendered more than three runs only once this season and has recorded seven quality starts in his last eight outings.
#921 KANSAS CITY @ #922 CLEVELAND - 7:05 PM
•Royals RH Jeremy Guthrie (5-6, 3.69 ERA, WHIP: 1.220) - Guthrie is 3-0 over his last four starts while giving up nine runs (seven earned) over 26 2/3 innings combined after going 11 games without a win. The 35-year-old Oregonian has allowed 16 homers in 17 starts, but only four in his last eight turns. Jason Kipnis is 8-for-14 with two homers against Guthrie, who is 4-4 in 11 career appearances (nine starts) with a 5.37 ERA versus Cleveland.
--KEY STAT: GUTHRIE is 16-6 (+10.4 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GUTHRIE 4.9, OPPONENT 3.2.
--GUTHRIE is 15-6 (+10.2 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GUTHRIE 4.9, OPPONENT 3.5.
--GUTHRIE is 18-4 UNDER (+13.3 Units) in road games versus an American League team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was GUTHRIE 3.1, OPPONENT 3.2.
--GUTHRIE is 13-2 UNDER (+10.7 Units) on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GUTHRIE 3.0, OPPONENT 3.1.
•Indians LH T.J. House (0-2, 4.28 ERA, WHIP: 1.484) - House has yielded two or fewer runs in four of the first six starts of his career, including Sunday against Seattle when he permitted two (one earned) in six innings. The 24-year-old has surrendered five homers – two in his first start – and opponents are batting .301 against him. House, a 16th-round pick by the Indians in 2008, was 1-3 with a 3.20 ERA at Triple-A Columbus.
Doubleheader Game #2
#923 BALTIMORE @ #924 BOSTON - 7:15 PM
•Orioles RH Ubaldo Jimenez (3-8, 4.31 ERA, WHIP: 1.479) - Jimenez's up-and-down campaign continued Monday against Texas, limited the Rangers to an unearned run in a season-high eight innings. Most importantly, he walked just one batter and has issued only three free passes in his last two outings after allowing 20 walks against 12 strikeouts in his previous four appearances. Jimenez has given up one earned run in each of his last three road starts but has been reached for 10 runs in 9 2/3 frames over two career outings in Boston.
--KEY STAT: JIMENEZ is 7-20 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in road games versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was JIMENEZ 3.0, OPPONENT 5.1.
--JIMENEZ is 15-4 OVER (+11.1 Units) in road games versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was JIMENEZ 4.9, OPPONENT 5.6.
•Red Sox RH John Lackey (9-5, 3.62 ERA, WHIP: 1.205) - Lackey is in pursuit of his 11th straight season (barring 2012, which he sat out due to Tommy John surgery) with at least 10 victories. He picked up his ninth of this campaign at New York on Sunday despite giving up five runs in five innings. Lackey, who gave up six runs on a season high-tying 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings against Baltimore on April 18, has allowed 11 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings since a masterful shutout of Minnesota on June 18.
--KEY STAT: LACKEY is 48-25 UNDER (+19.4 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 4.2, OPPONENT 4.1.
--LACKEY is 17-1 UNDER (+15.9 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 3.8, OPPONENT 3.3.
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#925 TORONTO @ #926 OAKLAND - 10:05 PM
•Blue Jays LH Mark Buehrle (10-5, 2.50 ERA, WHIP: 1.214) - Although his winless drought reached five starts, Buehrle turned in his best performance in four weeks last time out by limiting the Chicago White Sox - his former club - to two runs over eight innings in a 4-0 defeat. The veteran has struggled with the long ball during his slump, allowing six homers after yielding only two in his first 12 turns. Buehrle has seen plenty of the Athletics in his career, going 8-13 with a 3.63 ERA.
--KEY STAT: BUEHRLE is 10-1 (+9.8 Units) against the money line against American League West opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUEHRLE 5.1, OPPONENT 2.9.
--BUEHRLE is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) versus an American League team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUEHRLE 3.0, OPPONENT 1.9.
•Athletics LH Scott Kazmir (9-3, 2.61 ERA, WHIP: 1.026) - Kazmir was bothered by a leg cramp in his last outing at Detroit and exited after permitting one run on four hits over 5 1/3 innings. It was a nice bounce-back effort from his previous turn, when he was hammered for seven runs on eight hits - including three homers - in three frames against the New York Mets. Kazmir is 5-1 with a superb 1.61 ERA in seven home starts this season and has won four straight at O.co Coliseum while allowing a total of three earned runs.
--KEY STAT: KAZMIR is 24-6 (+15.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 5.6, OPPONENT 2.5.
#927 HOUSTON @ #928 LA ANGELS - 10:05 PM
•Astros RH Scott Feldman (4-5, 3.92 ERA, WHIP: 1.308) - Feldman is hoping to build on a strong finish in June, when he had four straight starts with three or fewer runs allowed. “I know I’ll have some more good outings and probably some bad ones, too,” Feldman told reporters. “I like where I’m headed at this point.” Howie Kendrick is 10-for-22 with a home run against the 31-year-old, who is 5-7 with a 5.05 ERA in 23 career games (14 starts) against the Angels, including 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA in two starts this season.
--KEY STAT: FELDMAN is 7-22 (-16.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was FELDMAN 3.6, OPPONENT 4.8.
•Angels LH Hector Santiago (0-7, 4.08 ERA, WHIP: 1.321) - Santiago was denied his first win of the season last Saturday when he was pulled during a rain delay after tossing four scoreless innings against Kansas City. The 26-year-old has begun each of his last three starts with at least four scoreless frames, and he brings a streak of 8 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings at Angel Stadium into Saturday’s contest. Santiago has a 0-1 mark with a 5.19 ERA in three career games (one start) against Houston.
--KEY STAT: SANTIAGO is 4-16 (-12.7 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANTIAGO 3.5, OPPONENT 5.7.
Doubleheader Game #1
#931 BALTIMORE @ #932 BOSTON - 1:05 PM
•Orioles RH Miguel Gonzalez (4-5, 4.56 ERA, WHIP: 1.562) - Gonzalez has failed to last any longer than five innings in his last three starts, giving up 10 runs on 25 hits in 14 2/3 rocky innings during that span. He has served up five home runs and has nine walks against just eight strikeouts in the three-start slump. Gonzalez, who has a 5.54 ERA on the road this year, is 3-0 with a 3.13 ERA in five career appearances against Boston.
--KEY STAT: GONZALEZ is 12-3 OVER (+9.1 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GONZALEZ 4.8, OPPONENT 5.8.
•Red Sox LH Jon Lester (9-7, 2.92 ERA, WHIP: 1.184) - Since a rough outing at Detroit on June 7, Lester has gone 3-0 with a 1.21 ERA over a stretch of four dominant starts. The Red Sox are 4-0 in those outings and 5-11 in all other games since the surge began June 12. Lester, who is 15-4 with a 2.92 ERA in his career versus Baltimore, has lasted at least five innings in all 26 starts against the Orioles, the longest active such streak in the majors.
--KEY STAT: LESTER is 5-13 (-11.6 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LESTER 3.3, OPPONENT 4.7.
--LESTER is 12-2 UNDER (+9.6 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LESTER 3.6, OPPONENT 2.8.
Interleague
#929 TEXAS @ #930 NY METS - 7:15 PM
•Rangers RH Colby Lewis (5-5, 5.71 ERA, WHIP: 1.744) - Lewis is coming off his first quality start of the season but settled for a no-decision after allowing two runs on five hits and striking out eight over six innings against Minnesota on Sunday. The 34-year-old has won only one of his last six outings, notching a victory at Oakland on June 16 despite surrendering five runs and 10 hits in 5 1/3 frames. Lewis is 0-1 with a 14.29 ERA in three career games - one start - against the Mets.
•Mets RH Bartolo Colon (8-6, 3.88 ERA, WHIP: 1.162) - Colon had his eight-start unbeaten streak snapped Sunday, when he was tagged for five runs and seven hits in six innings at Pittsburgh. The 41-year-old Dominican went 6-0 during his streak and allowed fewer than three earned runs in seven straight outings prior to facing the Pirates. Colon has had considerable success against Texas over his career, going 20-8 with a 3.47 ERA in 33 starts.
--KEY STAT: COLON is 15-5 (+10.1 Units) against the money line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COLON 4.4, OPPONENT 2.5.
--COLON is 7-0 (+7.6 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COLON 5.4, OPPONENT 1.6.
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River City Sharps
David Phelps (3-4, 4.26) gets the ball this afternoon for the New York Yankees as they try and stay hot vs. the reeling Minnesota Twins. The Twins will send Yohan Pino (0-2, 6.32) to the hill in hopes to curb the Yanks recent dominance in this series. New York has won 16 of their last 19 games vs. the Twins and are really playing some of their best baseball of th entire season. Pino has been hit around like a pinata in his recent starts and is still winless in four major league starts. The Yankess are 8-2 in Phelps' last 10 starts as a favorite and 5-0 in their last five road games as the favorite. The Twins are 3-13 in their last 16 games as the dog and 2-9 in their last 11 games overall. The Yankees really seem to have some positive momentum right now and we think they hit Pino early and often this afternoon. Give us the short priced road favorite here this afternoon at Target. The Sharps say...
3 UNITS - NEW YORK YANKEES ML -110
David Phelps (3-4, 4.26) gets the ball this afternoon for the New York Yankees as they try and stay hot vs. the reeling Minnesota Twins. The Twins will send Yohan Pino (0-2, 6.32) to the hill in hopes to curb the Yanks recent dominance in this series. New York has won 16 of their last 19 games vs. the Twins and are really playing some of their best baseball of th entire season. Pino has been hit around like a pinata in his recent starts and is still winless in four major league starts. The Yankess are 8-2 in Phelps' last 10 starts as a favorite and 5-0 in their last five road games as the favorite. The Twins are 3-13 in their last 16 games as the dog and 2-9 in their last 11 games overall. The Yankees really seem to have some positive momentum right now and we think they hit Pino early and often this afternoon. Give us the short priced road favorite here this afternoon at Target. The Sharps say...
3 UNITS - NEW YORK YANKEES ML -110
SPORTSWAGERS
FIFA World Cup
Costa Rica +½ +171 over Netherlands
(Risking 1 units - To Win: 1.71)
July 5 – 4:00 PM EST. The Dutch Lions have not guaranteed a position in the quarterfinals yet but the odds makers apparently they think they have with this line. The Netherlands indeed have the pedigree, they have the talent and they have the moxie. However, what many fail to consider here is how narrowly this team escaped a Mexican team that had them on the ropes. Wesley Sneijder saved the Oranje in the latter stages of the match with a brilliant strike from the top of the eighteen. In the next five minutes the Dutch would strike once more and win the game on a controversial penalty awarded in what was later deciphered to be a miscalculated fall predicated by a flop. The Dutch would sneak away from Memo Ochoa and his Mexican compatriots.
Enter the Ticos of Costa Rica, this team is exceptionally gifted. In fact, Costa Rica managed to pull off an improbable victory given the circumstances in which they achieved the result. Costa Rica took a one to nil lead on a Brian Ruiz goal, only minutes later Oscar Duarte would be sent off with his second yellow card and the Costa Ricans would have to weather a Greek storm for a 30 minutes of regulation with just 10 men. The Greeks would strike in the closing moments of the second half, finding an equalizer on a second chance. Seemingly, the Costa Ricans were poised to make an early exit despite their spirited efforts but they did not. In fact, a fatigued and tired Costa Rican team would fight through extra time and emerge victorious in the final shootout, led by the brilliant goalkeeping of Claudio Bravo.
It is very feasible that Robin Van Persie and the Oranje may be sent packing by this resilient CONCACAF team that has defeated three former champions and a top-13 team in Greece en route to their quarterfinal qualification. However, The heart and character of the Costa Ricans should not be undermined and given the means that this team has arrived at their current station, the Ticos should not be counted out and they offer up too much value to pass up on.
FIFA World Cup
Costa Rica +½ +171 over Netherlands
(Risking 1 units - To Win: 1.71)
July 5 – 4:00 PM EST. The Dutch Lions have not guaranteed a position in the quarterfinals yet but the odds makers apparently they think they have with this line. The Netherlands indeed have the pedigree, they have the talent and they have the moxie. However, what many fail to consider here is how narrowly this team escaped a Mexican team that had them on the ropes. Wesley Sneijder saved the Oranje in the latter stages of the match with a brilliant strike from the top of the eighteen. In the next five minutes the Dutch would strike once more and win the game on a controversial penalty awarded in what was later deciphered to be a miscalculated fall predicated by a flop. The Dutch would sneak away from Memo Ochoa and his Mexican compatriots.
Enter the Ticos of Costa Rica, this team is exceptionally gifted. In fact, Costa Rica managed to pull off an improbable victory given the circumstances in which they achieved the result. Costa Rica took a one to nil lead on a Brian Ruiz goal, only minutes later Oscar Duarte would be sent off with his second yellow card and the Costa Ricans would have to weather a Greek storm for a 30 minutes of regulation with just 10 men. The Greeks would strike in the closing moments of the second half, finding an equalizer on a second chance. Seemingly, the Costa Ricans were poised to make an early exit despite their spirited efforts but they did not. In fact, a fatigued and tired Costa Rican team would fight through extra time and emerge victorious in the final shootout, led by the brilliant goalkeeping of Claudio Bravo.
It is very feasible that Robin Van Persie and the Oranje may be sent packing by this resilient CONCACAF team that has defeated three former champions and a top-13 team in Greece en route to their quarterfinal qualification. However, The heart and character of the Costa Ricans should not be undermined and given the means that this team has arrived at their current station, the Ticos should not be counted out and they offer up too much value to pass up on.
SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Toronto @ OAKLAND
OAKLAND -1½ +156 over Toronto
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.12)
The Blue Jays have scored one time over their last 21 innings. They got a brilliant effort from Marcus Stroman yesterday and it went to waste. Overall, the Jays are hitting .234 against lefties but over their last 10 games, that number has dipped to .198. For the Jays offense, it’s a case of all or nothing because if the ball isn’t leaving the yard, they do not score runs. This is a difficult park to go deep in and that’s one of the reasons Toronto isn’t scoring. Their reeling offense now faces lefty Scott Kazmir. After totaling only 2 IP in the majors in 2011/12, Kazmir was a surprise contributor for the Indians in 2013. He came west to the pitcher’s haven of O.Co Coliseum in the off-season and with injuries to several young starters, Kazmir has been a stalwart for the A’s this year. Kazmir continues to build on his strong numbers from 2013. Kazmir was a big K-guy earlier in his career and he seems to have regained that skill. With a high swing and miss rate of 11% (15% over his last two starts), it wouldn’t be surprising to see even more whiffs. Combine that with few walks, and he has the best command of his career. While pitching half his games in Oakland helps reduce the homers, he’s also keeping the ball on the ground (48%) far more than in the past. Kazmir has also dominated left-handed hitters better than he did earlier in his career. With a 76%/7% dominant start/disaster start split in his 17 starts, Kazmir has a great opportunity to increase that dominant start percentage even higher against a Blue Jays team that is seeing golf balls.
We all know what Mark Buehrle is, as we’ve been watching him for years. What we all know for sure is that he’s not a 2.50 ERA pitcher and never has been. Buehrle’s nifty 2.52 ERA and 1.21 WHIP are both a mirage. His base skills profile him as a mid-4 ERA pitcher. An 82% strand rate and 6% hr/f are the only reasons he has a helpful ERA. Regression in Buehrle’s surface starts in the second half are about the closest thing to a sure bet as there is in this game of baseball and that regression likely starts here.
Arizona @ ATLANTA
Arizona +145 over ATLANTA
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)
Aaron Harang has been a WHIP machine lately, allowing double-digit hits in two of his last three outings and serving up 8 ER against the Phillies on June 13. After pitching five gems in his first nine starts, Harang only has one strong start over his last eight. Harang faces the Diamondbacks at home today—unfortunately, home has not been where the heart is for him this year (.292 oppBA, compared to .247 on the road) and all that combined makes him a huge risk spotting a tag like this one.
Mike Bolsinger has some upcoming victories due to him. In seven starts he has one win and an overall ERA of 4.53, which provides us with this great buy-low opportunity. Bolsinger has a K/BB split of 5/16 over his last 20 frames. He has an xERA over his last three starts of 2.12 after allowing just 15 hits and three earned runs over that span. Bolsinger comes in with a 54% groundball rate, a strong 10% swing and miss rate and if it weren’t for a very unlucky 17% HR/f rate his ERA would be in the low 3’s. We also like the fact that the Braves have never seen Bolsinger, which makes him even more appealing here. A pitcher flying far under the radar, Bolsinger offers up some tremendous profit potential the rest of the way and we’ll put that to the test here.
Kansas City @ CLEVELAND
Kansas City +107 over CLEVELAND
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)
The Royals scored seven times last night en route to a 7-1 win in the opener of this series. K.C. has now won two straight, four of five and they’re heating up again. You might remember about a month ago when they reeled off 10 straight and they appear headed in that direction again. The Royals are seeing beach balls and this is a great park to keep it going in. T.J. House has made six starts since being called up and only two of those were of the pure quality variety. House has an oppBA of .301, a 1.49 WHIP and only 22 K’s in 34 innings. It’s a small sample size but the Indians, like many teams, are desperate for starting pitching and House fills the void for now. House's minor league career skills and stats were underwhelming with a 3.93 career ERA at the minor league level over 764 innings since being drafted in the 16th round of the 2008 draft. Now he’s favored over the heating up Royals?
The reason the Indians are favored is because Jeremy Guthrie has been a big risk his entire career and not too many folks like to bet on him. The oddsmakers have all the data on which pitchers take the most action, for and against, and Guthrie falls in the latter category. That said, this guy wins ball-games. Guthrie is extremely smart out there and almost always throws a smart game, keeping the hitters off balance throughout. He has allowed two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts and that includes games against the Angels, Detroit, the Dodgers, at U.S. Cellular against the South Side and in Toronto at the Rogers Center. The Royals have won five straight games that Guthrie has started and we’re suggesting that they give a little extra in support of him because he’s one of the most likeable guys in the game and his teammates want to do well for him. Regardless, a smart, experienced and skilled Guthrie pitching for the hotter team is a much better option taking back a tag than a career minor-leaguer is spotting one.
CFL
We’re going to pass on this afternoon’s CFL game between the Argos and Riders. Put a gun to our head and we’d take Toronto but the Argos defense is a serious work in progress and that has us backing off. Why not the Riders then? One, their stock is too high and two, a letdown after last week’s celebratory (Grey Cup presentation) home win over the Ti-Cats last week.
MLB
Toronto @ OAKLAND
OAKLAND -1½ +156 over Toronto
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.12)
The Blue Jays have scored one time over their last 21 innings. They got a brilliant effort from Marcus Stroman yesterday and it went to waste. Overall, the Jays are hitting .234 against lefties but over their last 10 games, that number has dipped to .198. For the Jays offense, it’s a case of all or nothing because if the ball isn’t leaving the yard, they do not score runs. This is a difficult park to go deep in and that’s one of the reasons Toronto isn’t scoring. Their reeling offense now faces lefty Scott Kazmir. After totaling only 2 IP in the majors in 2011/12, Kazmir was a surprise contributor for the Indians in 2013. He came west to the pitcher’s haven of O.Co Coliseum in the off-season and with injuries to several young starters, Kazmir has been a stalwart for the A’s this year. Kazmir continues to build on his strong numbers from 2013. Kazmir was a big K-guy earlier in his career and he seems to have regained that skill. With a high swing and miss rate of 11% (15% over his last two starts), it wouldn’t be surprising to see even more whiffs. Combine that with few walks, and he has the best command of his career. While pitching half his games in Oakland helps reduce the homers, he’s also keeping the ball on the ground (48%) far more than in the past. Kazmir has also dominated left-handed hitters better than he did earlier in his career. With a 76%/7% dominant start/disaster start split in his 17 starts, Kazmir has a great opportunity to increase that dominant start percentage even higher against a Blue Jays team that is seeing golf balls.
We all know what Mark Buehrle is, as we’ve been watching him for years. What we all know for sure is that he’s not a 2.50 ERA pitcher and never has been. Buehrle’s nifty 2.52 ERA and 1.21 WHIP are both a mirage. His base skills profile him as a mid-4 ERA pitcher. An 82% strand rate and 6% hr/f are the only reasons he has a helpful ERA. Regression in Buehrle’s surface starts in the second half are about the closest thing to a sure bet as there is in this game of baseball and that regression likely starts here.
Arizona @ ATLANTA
Arizona +145 over ATLANTA
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)
Aaron Harang has been a WHIP machine lately, allowing double-digit hits in two of his last three outings and serving up 8 ER against the Phillies on June 13. After pitching five gems in his first nine starts, Harang only has one strong start over his last eight. Harang faces the Diamondbacks at home today—unfortunately, home has not been where the heart is for him this year (.292 oppBA, compared to .247 on the road) and all that combined makes him a huge risk spotting a tag like this one.
Mike Bolsinger has some upcoming victories due to him. In seven starts he has one win and an overall ERA of 4.53, which provides us with this great buy-low opportunity. Bolsinger has a K/BB split of 5/16 over his last 20 frames. He has an xERA over his last three starts of 2.12 after allowing just 15 hits and three earned runs over that span. Bolsinger comes in with a 54% groundball rate, a strong 10% swing and miss rate and if it weren’t for a very unlucky 17% HR/f rate his ERA would be in the low 3’s. We also like the fact that the Braves have never seen Bolsinger, which makes him even more appealing here. A pitcher flying far under the radar, Bolsinger offers up some tremendous profit potential the rest of the way and we’ll put that to the test here.
Kansas City @ CLEVELAND
Kansas City +107 over CLEVELAND
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)
The Royals scored seven times last night en route to a 7-1 win in the opener of this series. K.C. has now won two straight, four of five and they’re heating up again. You might remember about a month ago when they reeled off 10 straight and they appear headed in that direction again. The Royals are seeing beach balls and this is a great park to keep it going in. T.J. House has made six starts since being called up and only two of those were of the pure quality variety. House has an oppBA of .301, a 1.49 WHIP and only 22 K’s in 34 innings. It’s a small sample size but the Indians, like many teams, are desperate for starting pitching and House fills the void for now. House's minor league career skills and stats were underwhelming with a 3.93 career ERA at the minor league level over 764 innings since being drafted in the 16th round of the 2008 draft. Now he’s favored over the heating up Royals?
The reason the Indians are favored is because Jeremy Guthrie has been a big risk his entire career and not too many folks like to bet on him. The oddsmakers have all the data on which pitchers take the most action, for and against, and Guthrie falls in the latter category. That said, this guy wins ball-games. Guthrie is extremely smart out there and almost always throws a smart game, keeping the hitters off balance throughout. He has allowed two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts and that includes games against the Angels, Detroit, the Dodgers, at U.S. Cellular against the South Side and in Toronto at the Rogers Center. The Royals have won five straight games that Guthrie has started and we’re suggesting that they give a little extra in support of him because he’s one of the most likeable guys in the game and his teammates want to do well for him. Regardless, a smart, experienced and skilled Guthrie pitching for the hotter team is a much better option taking back a tag than a career minor-leaguer is spotting one.
CFL
We’re going to pass on this afternoon’s CFL game between the Argos and Riders. Put a gun to our head and we’d take Toronto but the Argos defense is a serious work in progress and that has us backing off. Why not the Riders then? One, their stock is too high and two, a letdown after last week’s celebratory (Grey Cup presentation) home win over the Ti-Cats last week.
