Kevin's Pick(s):
It took 12 innings to cash a winner with Oakland yesterday, and we will come back on them today vs a injured Blue Jays line up. I've got four plays going on a busy Saturday...
2 UNIT = Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics - ATHLETICS TO WIN (-139)
2 UNIT = Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics - UNDER 7.5 RUNS (-109)
Listed Pitchers: Buehrle vs Kazmir
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.44 units)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.84 units)
Toronto has scored 1 run over their two games so far in Oakland, which has been 21 innings after last night's extra innings game. They've been dealing with some injuries, and although they might have Colby Rasmus back in the lineup they are facing another tough lefty in Scott Kazmir. Lind, Rasmus and Francisco all struggle vs lefties, but all will play or give way to a Triple-A player today. Kazmir is 9-3 with a 2.61 ERA, .216 OBA and 1.03 WHIP. At home he is an even better 5-1 with a 1.61 ERA, .190 OBA and 0.77 WHIP. The Blue Jays have Mark Buehrle on the mound who is 10-5 with a 2.50 ERA, .253 OBA and 1.21 WHIP. Take note that the UNDER is 5-1 in the Blue Jays last 6 games overall, 4-0 in their last 4 as an underdog, and 16-6 in Buehrle's last 22 road starts. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the A's last 6 overall, 6-1 in their last 7 home games, and 5-2-1 in Kazmir's last 8 starts overall. The UNDER has hit in 6 straight meetings between these two teams. Take the UNDER and the As again tonight.
2 UNIT = Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds - REDS TO WIN (-128)
Listed Pitchers: Garza vs Bailey
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.56 units)
The Reds won the first game of this series by a score of 4-2 and are now 6-2 vs the Brewers this season. Today's starting pitchers have faced each other last month in Milwaukee and the Reds won that game 6-5. Bailey has faced Milwaukee twice this season, which were both wins by the Reds. Bailey is coming off a complete game shutout in his last outing as he held the Giants to just 3 hits and 1 walk with 7 strikeouts. Bailey is 5-1 at home with a 4.03 ERA this year. In 6 June starts he was 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA, .224 OBA and 1.09 WHIP. Matt Garza is 5-5 on the year with a 4.10 ERA, .252 OBA and 1.28 WHIP, but he has struggled on the road with a 5.49 ERA, .265 BA and 1.49 WHIP. The Brewers are just 1-4 in Garza's last 5 road starts and just 1-5 in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. The Reds are hot right now winning 9 of their last 13 games overall, going 5-1 in their last 6 home games, and they are 6-2 in Bailey's last 8 starts. I'm on the Reds at home this afternoon.
2 UNIT = San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres - PADRES TO WIN (+107)
Listed Pitchers: Hudson vs Despaigne
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.14 units)
Odrisamer Despaigne from Cuba will make his third start of the season tonight for the Padres. So far, so good as he is 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA, .200 OBA and 0.95 WHIP. He will face Tim Hudson who is 7-5 on the season with a 2.59 ERA, but has had his struggles lately. Over 6 June starts he was 2-3 with a 3.86 ERA, but opponents were hitting .293 against him for the month with a 1.45 WHIP. He has posted a 6.38 ERA over his last three starts. The Padres won the first game of this series last night by a score of 2-0. After such a great start to the season the Giants are now just 5-18 in their last 23 games overall. They are also just 1-4 in their last 5 as a favorite, 0-8 in their last 8 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, and 0-6 in their last 6 vs right handed starters. The Padres have won 5 in a row, and are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog. San Diego has won 6 of their last 8 meetings with San Fran at home. I'll take the Padres at plus money.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox - MARINERS TO WIN (-140)
Listed Pitchers: Hernandez vs. Quintana
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.43 units)
Pretty easy winner yesterday for a five winners in a row. Alfredo Simon was terrific and Kyle Lohse did just enough before imploding to keep the Reds in check. This matches my longest win streak of the season, so lets look to surpass that.
One guy that is certainly on a roll is Felix Hernandez. This is the kind of production we expect to get from Hernandez, so it isn't all that surprising, but he is playing some of the best baseball of his career right now. It is hard to argue, as Hernandez has been dazzling lately, pitching a 1.23 ERA with a staggering 0.59 WHIP and .167 OBP. He has an overall ERA of 2.10, 0.92 WHIP, and .244 OBP. It has been ten starts for him since he has allowed more than 2 runs. He has been earning his pay check and definitely locked in at the moment. Hernandez' ERA is even lower on the road with a 2.04. Jose Quintana has been hot as well lately, but note that all of those starts came on the road, a place where he is much better. At home, however, Quintana has an ERA of 4.25 compared to 3.01 on the road. In addition, his WHIP is not all that impressive, entering today with a 1.31. Quintana is going to need to be razor sharp against Hernandez, 3 runs against may be too many to overcome against the Mariners with him on the mound. I think the Mariners will be able to chalk up enough runs to give Hernandez a glorious opportunity to lock in a win to his credit. Ride the Hernandez train until the wheels fall off. I'll be on it today in Chicago.
