Service Plays Saturday 6/28/14

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UFC Odds and Picks
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews

LAS VEGAS -- This Saturday night from San Antonio, Tex., the UFC gives us a key fight in the featherweight division between Cub Swanson and Jeremy Stephens (coverage starts at 7 p.m. ET, main event at 10 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1). Swanson is about a -260 favorite to get his sixth straight win, with Stephens catching around +210 odds as the underdog.

Swanson (20-5) with a win here could line himself up with a title shot later this year against Jose Aldo. Surely Swanson would love a chance to avenge a 2009 loss to Aldo in WEC, where he was KOed early in the first round.

Cub's last performance, in July 2013, might have been one of his best, as he was able to get a third-round stoppage over always-tough Dennis Siver in a fight that garnered fight of the night honors. A KO win over highly-regarded Ross Pearson is also among his five-bout winning streak.

For Stephens (23-9), this is another shot to get back into the picture in the loaded 145-pound division. Stephens is on a three-fight winning streak of his own after suffering three losses in a row before that.

But don’t put too much into those losses – they came against very tough lightweights, including champion Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone. While the drop to 145 pounds has seemed to make all the difference for Stephens, his wins haven’t exactly been against the best in the division.

The Linemakers' lean: At this weight, rounds are usually very close and hard to score, which makes laying a big price a risky proposition, but the lean here is toward Swanson. He's just the better of the two fighters at this moment.

Look for a fight that might not go the distance, as both fighters – win or lose – will want to impress in this main event as a guys who bring the action. If that’s the way the fight goes, look for Swanson to take Stephens out somewhere around the third round.

Laying the favorite looks like the way to go Saturday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brazil vs. Chile Betting Preview and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides

The first match of the World Cup's knockout stages is without doubt the game of the round as hosts Brazil face a Chile side who have been one of the most enjoyable to watch in the tournament so far.

La Roja disposed of reigning champions Spain before succumbing to a slightly harsh 2-0 defeat to Netherlands and, if we have learned one thing from seeing Jorge Sampaoli's side play, it is that they will without doubt give it a go.

Yet they are clear underdogs, with the LVH SuperBook offering them at +525 odds to win in 90 minutes.

Brazil, meanwhile, who began to look the part in their final group game against Cameroon, are available at -185, and the draw priced at +310.

More World Cup betting info: Goal.com has you covered

With Chile possessing an exciting, attacking brand of football and Brazil capable of turning on the style, it seems only likely that we should expect goals.

OVER 2.5 goals is offered at -130 at the LVH, but more tempting is the price of -120 for both teams to score, which seems a little generous.

Most people would expect Brazil to find the back of the net in 90 minutes (despite failing to do so against Mexico) so logic therefore dictates that we are taking the price of -120 for Chile to score and, when put like that, it becomes even more appealing.

La Roja were the second highest scorers in South American qualifying and put two past a shell-shocked Spain in Group B.

They are a side who create plenty of chances and, if they can take just one of them, this should prove to be a profitable selection.

Bet of the day: Both teams to score at -120.

 

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ADVANCED SPORTS INVESTMETS

SOCCER
PERRY’S SELECTIONS
(June Results -2.20)
FIFA WORLD CUP
1x- Brazil -185 Chile (12pm)
1x- URUGUAY/COLOMBIA – OVER 2 -133 (4PM)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

RIVER CITY SHARPS

The Mariners took the series opener 3-2 on Friday night and the Indians will try and even up this series tonight sending Josh Tomlin (4-5, 4.39) to the mound. He will be opposed by Seattle’s Roenis Elias (7-5, 3.74) who has been really good for the Mariners over his last couple of starts, going 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA in those outings. While Tomlin is in the midst of a personal three-game losing streak, he has traditionally pitched well against the Mariners and particularly at Safeco. Tomlin has posted a 3-1 record in his career starts vs. Seattle and at Safeco, he is 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA. With all of that under consideration, there are some pretty strong trend lines leading us to the home team here tonight. The Indians are 3-13 in their last 16 road games vs. a left-handed starter and 1-7 in Tomlin’s last eight starts as an underdog. The Mariners are really playing good baseball right now, 6-1 over their last seven games and 9-3 in their last 12 games. Another thing to look at in this matchup is the fact that Kyle Seager is red hot right now for the Mariners and he has enjoyed pretty good success against Tomlin, where he is 4-6 in those matchups. We will ride the hot pitcher at home at a reasonable price against the team that can’t get out of their own way on the road. The Sharps say…

3 UNITS – SEATTLE MARINERS (-119)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

HALL OF FAME PICKS / William Holloway

Brewers(-168)
The Rockies have lost 10 of 11 and being on the road to the Brewers (one of the best teams in baseball), where they are 0-5 this season doesn’t help their chances of winning.

Tigers(-135)
The Tigers should bounce back after a loss last night(which I stayed away from after releasing them for 3 of the 8 straight wins we have). They are sending one of the top pitchers to the mound in Scherzer while Keuchel(Astros) is 0-2 with a 5.54 ERA in his last two starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SHAKER’S SHORTS

#971 LA Angels – Team Total OVER 3.5 -130: We got some high Vig on the 3.5 but it has to be set at this number based on the Game of total of 8.5 and the Royals being a mid-range favorite to win here. I would actually rather have the 4 at a betting Price but it is what it is. Ventura is off two High Pitch counts and he also possesses one of the worst GB Ratios in the Big’s. That’s not so good for him facing the Angels who can and do hit Dingers and a weather pattern favorable for Hitters to do just that. Easy decision here for me.

 

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SportsCashSystem

extra bonus system for today:

New York Yankees -150 over the Boston Red Sox (Bet Level 1) (Money Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 7:15 PM EST

 

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Chris James Sports

Nationals -143 Gm1
Angels +123
Tigers -135
Rockies +147
Braves -115
Giants -114

 

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SPORTS WAGERS

St. Louis +136 over LOS ANGELES

Lance Lynn is too good to pass up on when being offered a tag like the one here. Lynn has thrown three shutouts over his last six starts and one of those came at that bandbox in Colorado where he allowed three hits in eight innings. Lynn just keeps getting better and with another tweak or two he could become a top-3 starter in the entire league. Last September, he was MLB’s most effective starter. Back in spring training of this year, Lynn was the most dominant pitcher in any camp. His 15.1 K’s per nine this past spring was 20% higher than any other SP with at least 15 IP. Lynn’s Achilles Heel in the past has been struggles against LH hitters. He’s taken a giant leap against them this season while same-sided bats have very little chance against him. Lynn has a 60% groundball rate on three of pitches but his 28% groundball rate on his four-seamer makes his overall GB rate of 45% look average. A tweak there, a tweak against lefties and Lance Lynn will absolutely dominate. He’s close, as he’s improved in both areas, he has a 2.90 ERA overall and he’ll face a Dodgers lineup that will likely only have two left-handed bats in the lineup.

Zach Greinke has an almost identical 2.89 ERA as Lynn. In terms of skills, there really isn’t much that separates these two starters. Greinke has more K’s and a higher strikeout rate but he has a higher WHIP than Lynn. Still, Greinke has few weaknesses and remains one of the best in the game. However, Lynn is also one of the best and he’s not the one spotting a significant tag. Once again we turn to value, as Lance Lynn is very capable of throwing a gem and defeating any team at any time. Overlay.


KANSAS CITY/L.A. Angels Over 8½

The Angels’ bats reamined hot last night with another six runs in the opener of this series. L.A. has now scored six runs or more in L.A. has now scored six runs or more in four straight and five runs or more in seven of their past nine games. Extending that streak against Yordano Ventura is a distinct possibility. Ventura is showing serious signs of fatigue. In April he struck out 31 batters in 30 frames and in May he whiffed 28 batters in 27.1 innings. However, his K rate in June is way down with just 14 K’s in 27 frames. Ventura is coming off back-to-back games in which his pitch count was over 100. This will be the second time this season that he’ll start after successive pitch counts of 100 or more and the last time it happened back on May 15 and May 20, Ventura was whacked by the Astros in his subsequent start. Ventura’s xERA over his past six starts is 3.89 and he’ll now face one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors.

The Royals scored eight last night and this strong hitting lineup takes a big step down in class here. Hector Santiago returned to the Angels rotation on June 10 after a brief stint with Triple-A Salt Lake where posted a disastrous 6.43 ERA over three starts (14 IP). Santiago has yet to win a game as an Angel (0-7) and has struggled with his control with four walks every nine innings he pitches. Santiago has one of the worst groundball/line-drive/fly-ball splits in the league at 30%/27%/43% and he has just two quality starts in nine tries this season. Hector Santiago is rotation filler for now. His chronically shaky control and high fly-ball and line-drive rates give him a high blow-up risk while his fastball speed has declined for three straight years. Santiago’s surface stats (which aren’t that great to begin with) disguise some of his brutal skills but a monkey dressed in silk is still a monkey. Expect some crooked innings from both these offenses.


Cincinnati +106 over SAN FRANCISCO

Matt Cain’s xERA never bought into his sub-3.00 ERAs in 2011 and 2012 and it has finally caught up to him. Over his last 42 starts which cover 30 starts last year and 12 this year, Cain’s ERA is 4.41. Cain has surrendered eight jacks over his last seven starts. At AT&T he is 1-3 with an ERA of 4.50. He’s coming off a home start against the weak hitting Padres that saw him surrender six runs in seven innings. His skills with runners on and have been horrible (4.5 K’s/9, 4.1 BB/9, 38% groundball rate) and only a tiny 19% with runners on has prevented further damage. Cain and the struggling Giants are too big a risk to trust as the chalk.

Alfredo Simon has walked five batters and struck out 22 over his last 34 innings. An elite 16% swing and miss rate over his last three starts strongly suggest an uptick in strikeouts is forthcoming. Simon’s skills are all trending the right way. His groundball rate is up from 35% to 50% over his last five starts and his WHIP has dropped to 1.09. In 15 starts this season, Simon’s 13 pure quality starts represents the best quality start % of any pitcher in the NL with 10 or more starts. The Reds are hot with three wins in a row and six wins in their last seven games and this is a great opportunity for them to keep it going.

 

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MYSYSTEMPICKS

Brazil -1 -118 (2u)

Mariners -117 (2*)
White Sox -115 (2*)
Rockies +148 (1.5*)

 

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Dave Essler | MLB RunLine

dime bet – 961 COL 1.5 (-130) vs 962 MIL

 

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SPORTS WAGERS

Montreal +7½ over CALGARY

Many football bettors in college, NFL and CFL like to wait two or three weeks to get a read on teams before making a wager. The problem with that is you lose value wagering against overpriced teams and you lose value passing up on underpriced teams. The market catches up in a real hurry and that’s why the first week or two in any sport provides great opportunity, as we saw with the CFL opener on Thursday. Calgary was an offensive power last year and its defense was rock solid as well. The Stamps finished the year with a 14-4 record in the always tough West Division. The Stamps had the best record in the CFL but they lost their final game of the year to the Lions, 26-7, and they were subsequently whacked in their only playoff game by Saskatchewan 35-13. Calgary lost its final two games of 2013 by a combined score of 61-20 and they didn’t make any major changes this year. The Stamps looked flat in the preseason with a three-point win over Winnipeg followed by a 37-13 loss to B.C. in the season tune-up one week ago. After that last preseason game the Stamps had to choose a starting QB and they have chosen to start Bo-Levi Mitchell over Drew Tate. Both QB’s have been inconsistent and while they’ve both had their moments, both are also unproven. Every team in this league has weapons and the Stamps are no exception but we just don’t see where they are superior to the Alouettes. Calgary’s 14-4 record from last year has them overpriced to begin this year.

We much prefer a team with a strategy firmly in place to one that waits until after the final pre-season game to name its starting QB. Montreal named Troy Smith their starting QB the first day of training camp and they haven’t looked back since. Smith is a former Heisman winner that went on to play for three different NFL teams over five seasons. Smith was solid in his limited CFL action after taking over late last year and he figures to be much better this year. Smith is also mobile and that adds another dimension to his game. In February, the Als hired Tom Higgins as their new coach. Higgins had served as the CFL's Director of Officiating since 2008 but has plenty of previous coaching experience, posting a 72-53-1 record with Edmonton and Calgary from 2001-2007. He made the playoffs in all seven of those seasons and his Eskimos hoisted the Grey Cup in 2003. Higgins knows this game well and he knows how to prepare as well as anyone. If he didn’t like what he saw, he would have not signed up for this gig. Montreal is loaded with perhaps the best receiving corps in the league. Each receiver is more dangerous than the next so opposing defenses will not be able to hone in on any one receiver. The Als defense, which was young and inexperienced a year ago started coming on towards the end of last year. The hope is that such a large turnover from last season will allow for more chemistry and cohesion in 2014. Montreal had an off year in 2013 with an 8-10 record but they came on late and made the playoffs. The Als don’t “rebuild”, instead they make good personnel decisions every year and they compete at a high level. This is a model franchise that is talented and prepared and that should not be receiving this many points in the first game of the season.

NOTE: We’re passing on the B.C./Edmonton game. Given the choice, we would rather spot the points and play the favorite.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee won (5 in a row) on Friday in MLB in the National League with the Pirates -$140/Mets.

For Saturday in World Cup Soccer E&B like Colombia -$110/Uruguay for $100 and a $50 play on the Draw +$240.

For Saturday in MLB in the American League "Mr Chalk" (winner of 5 in a row) likes the Mariners -$130/Indians.

Ben lee is 6-2 +$225 for week thirty five 159-186-5 -$3231

"Mr Chalk" is 40-33 -$531 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

FEZZIK’S FOCUS

Minnesota Twins +.5 – (1st 5 innings)

 

[Ren1984]

Just trying to win money bro. Steve had a rough few days and he is due for a good day

 

[goldencontender]

GC: MLB Matinee system Play

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Saturday card has a 31-1 MLB Power Angle, a 15-1 Dominator system and a Perfect 5* World Cup Power Angle. Play. MLB System Play below.

On Saturday the MLB Power system Play is on the Chicago Whitesox. Game 968 at 1:05 eastern. Chicago has Chris Sale going today and he ha a solid 2.27 road era this season. He should be able to out Duel Toronto Righty Stroman here. In fact Sale was solid in a start here last season, allowing just 2 runs in 7 innings. For our League Wide system We are playing on road favorites off +140 1 run road dog win, vs an opponent, like Toronto that is off a home favored loss where they scored 4 or less runs. These road teams are a solid 23-8. Look for Chicago to take another against a Toronto team that has lost 4 straight home vs Leftys. On Saturday its a Huge MLB + World Cup Power system day. The lead play in bases is a 31-1 MLB Power Angle play and a 15-1 Road Warrior system as well a Knock out round World Statistical Indicator. All plays 15 games .over 500 this month. Jump on and cash out on Saturday. For the Bonus Play take the Chicago Whitesox. GC

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas SI
SATURDAY'S PICKS(HIGH ROLLERS CLUB)
20* MLB Blue Jays +105 and 10* MLB OVER 7.5
20* MLB Nationals GM1 -155 and 10* MLB UNDER 9.5
20* MLB Pirates -150 and 10* MLB UNDER 7.5
20* MLB Padres -110 and 10* MLB OVER 7
20* MLB Dodgers -140 and 10* MLB UNDER 6.5

 

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Power Play Wins

Power Play Of The Day

Detroit Tigers -150 (Scherzer)

 

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Diamond Dog Sports

MLB

Sides

#952: Cubs DH Game 1: +140 (1.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Gonzalez / Beeler


Totals

#955/956: Over Phillies DH Game 1: 8.5 (-105) (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Santana / Hernandez

 

[85Bears]

Las Vegas Pipeline

15* Balt.