STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SATURDAY, JUNE 28th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 6/28/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #13
It is time once again for StatSystemsSports.net, Systems Analyst William Stillman to take a look at the Major League Baseball weekday results (Week #13) from Point Blank range, isolating those key edges that can grow your bankroll in the days ahead.
•Yankees – The Bullpen, Post-Mariano Rivera
After taking the field 77 times the aging and injury-riddled Yankees are just three games out of first place in the AL East, and one out in the Wild Card chase. It must be noted that part of that is a reflection on few teams in the league performing at a high level, which keeps the Pin Stripes in contention. But perhaps the most fascinating aspect of their run to this point has been where the real strength has come from – in the first season without “Enter Sandman” being played so often in the late innings, the bullpen has been superb.
Last week in this column there was a take on how the Mets have to work around not having a legit closer, and a big part of that can be seen in the fact that they are 36-43, despite having out-scored the opposition. But look how different it has been in the Bronx, where the Yankees are 40-37 despite being out-scored by 34 runs. Some of this can be missed because the bullpen ERA is a misleading 3.99 (more on that in a moment), which would rate #23. But dig deeper across the peripherals and the xFIP is #4 at 3.41, and only four teams have more saves.
They were hoping that David Robertson would be ready to step up as the closer, after apprenticing to Rivera since 2008, and he has fulfilled those expectations. An 0-2/3.08 ERA will not ring bells, but the xFIP of 1.24, converting 90 percent of his save chances, paints a more accurate portrait. Not only does a count of 16.1 K-per-9 jump off the charts, but there is also that 54 percent ground-ball rate. It is a lethal combination, and with career counts of 2.79 in ERA and 2.83 in xFIP, he can be categorized as elite.
The surprise has come from set-up man Dellin Betances. His slider has been the single most difficult pitch for MLB batters to make contact on this season, and his 4-0/1.43 is backed up by an almost exact match of a 1.40 xFIP. Like Robertson, it is a combination of power, with 14.7 K-per-9, and ground-balls, at 51.3. His raw stuff is almost off the charts, with 72 K vs. only 20 hits allowed, and the frightening thing is that he is still learning. There is also plenty of depth, with Adam Warren, Shawn Kelley and Matt Thornton all proving to be capable. So why the uninspiring ERA? Alfredo Aceves (6.52 over 10 appearances) did not work out, and the collection of LeBlanc-Anna-Leroux-Cabral, none currently on the roster, got raked for 12 ER over five IP, which is of no significance when making current power ratings.
It will be a day-to-day challenge for Joe Girardi to gut out enough innings from a depleted rotation to stay in the race. But the task is made much easier by this bullpen bringing such late-game fortitude.
•Twins – Kyle Gibson, And “The Drawer”
A little over a decade ago I was hired as a consultant by one of the major MLB betting syndicates, to work with a gentleman from New York that was responsible for the computer program that was their main tool for pitcher power ratings. They were struggling with what they believed were inconsistencies in the program, but the reality was that it was more a case of inconsistencies with the pitchers themselves. So when a discussion came up of an erratic performer the phrase I used was that I would just put the guy “in the drawer”, and not try to force a rating. That can be anathema to a computer programmer, but when laying vigorish on bets, it is a savvy strategy. And that is where Gibson belongs right now.
The notion of “the drawer” may not be as pertinent now that pen and paper are out of vogue, so consider it a file on your computer, a place where you can isolate performers that make the determination of a precise power rating a dubious exercise. Gibson may be the best example from the 2014 season. His overall 6-6/3.92 at 85 IP over 15 starts might seem like a strong foundation to work from, but it isn’t.
Here is the breakdown – the Minnesota right-hander has had nine starts in which he has allowed one run or none. That is a superb rate (Masahiro Tanaka has only done it seven times, in the same number of starts). But in his other six starts the best single-game ERA was 6.00, and in four of those games it was a 9.00 or higher. That is terrible. Through those 15 starts, he has not had a single game in which the ERA for the outing was within two runs of his overall count. The best that can be said about him is that he has been “consistently inconsistent”.
Yes, you can try to figure out the Why’s behind it, but that can be an exercise in futility. The obvious would appear to be a 4-1/1.54 at home vs. 2-5/6.14 on the road, but those are misleading – the WHIP gap is only 1.12 vs 1.32, and he actually sports a better K-to-BB ratio from opposing mounds (the ERA difference stems from five HR on the road, but none at Target Field). If there is an issue that causes the inconsistency it is the fact that he gives up a lot of contact – of the 95 qualifying pitchers, only Bronson Arroyo, Chris Young and Kevin Correia have fewer K-per-9, and when the ball is in play a lot, it elevates randomness. But that is not nearly enough to explain the Good/Bad gap that he brings.
So what do you do for now? Nothing. Let Gibson mature as a pitcher to develop consistency, but if you must have a power rating for other purposes, use a model that will be talked about here often. All performers should have two ratings – the base rating of their ability, and the strength/confidence you have in that rating. To make it easy to comprehend, make the first a number, and the second a letter. The letter represents how confident you are in the number, with consistent performers like Felix Hernandez naturally meriting and A, and Gibson a D. It takes a little more time to do this, but it will be time well spent, as you keep your bankroll guarded against players and teams that are too inconsistent to trust. Think of it this way, in terms of not only making a bet, but also money management.
•Padres – The Chase (Headley) Is Not On
With the firing of GM Josh Byrnes last weekend, it would not be a surprise if the Padres went into a “fire sale” mode, dealing the few useful veterans that they do have in order to develop a foundation for the future via young prospects. But a big part of why they have opened so poorly in 2014 is also an issue in terms of getting value in trade return for one key cog – it is difficult to establish a favorable power rating for Headley right now. Could his career arc be reduced to an episode of lightning being caught in a bottle, and then that bottle breaking open? Headley’s 2014 has been an offensive disaster, with a .199/.286/.328 that has been every bit that bad. There are signs that it has affected his approach, with a lot of pressing at the plate, and that begs for a re-appraisal of how the expectations got so high in the first place.
For the first few seasons of his career he was little more than an average hitter, burdened by having half of his games in Petco. Over the four seasons from 2008-11 his average came in between .262 and .289, his SLG .340 to .420, and he had 36 HR over 2,093 PA’s. Enter 2012. Up to the All Star break it was pretty much the same old/same old – a .267/.368/.413, with eight HR over 365 PA’s. Then the magic. In 75 games after the break he was as good as any hitter in the sport, a .308/.386/.592 in which he had 23 HR and 73 RBI’s over 325 PA’s.
That explosion led to major expectations for 2013, but they were not met - Headley fell back to .250/.347/.400, with 13 HR’s. Now the 2014 collapse, and it is becoming a case of not just failing to meet the expectations of others, but perhaps even more important, of his own. A player that came up as a contact/slash hitter got caught up in the power surge, and has lost his swing. His current K% is the highest since his rookie season of 2008, while his BB% is the lowest since 2010. His ground-ball rate is the lowest since 2008, and fly-balls the highest since 2010. By trying to elevate the ball and recapture that one cycle of power, it has come apart. Even Petco cannot be blamed – he has turned in an awful .185/.290/.315 on the road.
Headley has had more strikeouts than hits in each month of this season, and over eight of nine months since those 2012 fireworks. As brilliant as that one flash was, it may be of precious little value in terms of evaluating him at this stage. Even the change of scenery that a trade would bring might only be of minimal value.
•Pirates – Is Mark Melancon The Answer For The 9th?
The example of Headley above shows that a relatively average player can have a burst of greatness in this sport. Jason Grilli had such a run for the Pirates in 2013. But his run might be over, which is already reflected in Pittsburgh’s drop in the standings, and it means time to take a hard look at Melancon, and the load that he will have to carry if the team is to be in the Wild Card race.
First, the Grilli details. His career shows a 21-29/4.20, the latter in sync with a 4.17 xFIP, and he converted 49 of 61 saves. If you call him an average reliever, over a ride that spanned seven different teams (he did not appear with the Phillies, but did pitch in their Minor League system), few would argue. But then there was 2013, when he found magic at the age of 36 – a 2.70 ERA, converting 33 of 35 saves, and an All Star game appearance. With 74 K vs. 40 hits, it was a brilliant campaign, and it helped to get the Pirates into the playoffs.
But then the calendar turned over, and Grilli has been an entirely different pitcher in 2014. His ERA is up to 4.87, and he has already blown twice as many saves as he did all of LY. There is nothing fluky about it – his K-per-9 has fallen precipitously, from 13.3 to 9.3; BB-per-9 has more than doubled, from 2.3 to 4.9; and an already dangerous 33 percent ground-ball rate has alarms going off at 24.1. There is no bad luck in his decline – it has been bad pitching. Clint Hurdle finally saw enough and demoted him from the closer role, and his only outing since then was not encouraging, allowing hits to four of the six batters he faced in Tampa Bay on Wednesday.
Enter Melancon. The Pirates are already his fourth MLB team since coming up with the Yankees in 2009, and while he has been effective as a set-up man, via control and ground-balls, is there the moxie to be a closer? The optimist would want to quickly point to the fact that he has converted all four save chances since being promoted to the role full-time last Saturday. The skeptic would note that he did that despite a 6.75 ERA, while facing the offensively-challenged Cubs (#27 in RPG) twice, Rays (#28) and Mets (#21). And while a 2.41 ERA for the full season shows promise, that has been aided by a .233 BABIP that is too good to last, and a 3.8 percent HR/FB rate far off of his career 9.9.
Melancon will bear watching closely. He may be a case of a reliever that can be a genuine asset in a set-up role, especially when a ground-ball is needed, but not quite the repertoire to be successful long-term when the game is on the line in the 9th.
•Rangers – Joe Saunders Is Not At “Home on the Range”
There have been a couple of takes here already on the struggles that the Texas Rangers were going to have, a case of roster attrition before the season, and injuries since they got the spring training, that have reduced a perennial contender into being a battle with Houston for last place in the AL West. But there is yet another setting worth bringing to your attention, and one that you should take advantage of while you can – the Saunders “home” starts. It may not last long.
Beggars can’t be choosers. The Rangers badly need arms in their starting rotation, and the presence of a veteran innings-eater like Saunders might be considered a plus – he does not have an upside, but has usually been reliable, and can also help to coach the younger arms on the roster. But whatever positives he could bring might be negated by the fact that this is a bad home park for him to pitch in.
After getting rudely knocked around by the Tigers on Wednesday, Saunders now sports a dismal 1-9/7.87 over his career from the Arlington mound. Yes, the numbers are a bit awkward, because the bulk of that was in facing the Rangers, not pitching for them. But his 0-2/5.87 through three starts this season is in line with that, especially after noting that the ERA has been saved a bit through some good fortune. His 2.22 WHIP is actually higher than his past when pitching here, but over 15 1/3 IP, 22 runners have reached base without scoring an ER.
You do not have to look far to see the lack of confidence he has when pitching in this ball park – it has been an atrocious count of 10 BB vs. only four K, and contrast that to a 16 K against 8 BB count on the road. Texas has lost those three home starts by a combined eight runs, yet the Rangers were actually in the favorite’s role twice, burning through a -$327 in the process. This is simply a very bad fit.
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Betting Notes - Saturday
National League
•Nationals-Cubs - 1:05 PM
--Gonzalez is 1-0, 3.27 in two starts since coming off the DL. Treinen is 0-3, 3.74 in four starts this season.
--Beeler is making MLB debut; he is 5-3, 4.03 in his ten AAA starts. Samardzija is 0-1, 4.00 in his last three starts.
--Washington lost seven of their last nine road games.
--Cubs won three of their last four games.
--Last three Washington games went over the total.
•Braves-Phillies - 2:05 PM
--Santana is 5-5, 4.15 and has put up four quality starts in his last five starts.
--Hernandez is 1-0 with a 5.25 ERA in two starts against the Braves in 2014.
--Braves won four of their last five games.
--Phillies lost five of their last seven games.
--Last six Atlanta games stayed under the total.
•Mets-Pirates - 4:05 PM
--Niese is 1-1, 3.35 in his last six starts.
--Cole was 3-0, 3.38 in his last four starts before going on DL.
--Mets lost their last three games, scoring nine runs.
--Pirates won six of their last seven games.
--Five of last seven New York games stayed under total.
•Rockies-Brewers - 4:10 PM
--Chacin is 0-2, 6.00 in his last two starts, 0-3, 5.14 in five road starts.
--Cubs lost Garza's last three starts (0-1, 4.57).
--Colorado lost ten of its last eleven games.
--Brewers won nine of their last twelve games.
--Seven of ten Chacin starts stayed under total.
•Cardinals-Dodgers - 7:15 PM
--Lynn is 2-1, 0.82 in his last three starts.
--Greinke is 1-3, 4.70 in his last five starts.
--Cardinals won five of their last seven games.
--Dodgers won ten of their last fourteen games.
--Under is 15-4-2 in last twenty-one St Louis games.
•Reds-Giants - 10:05 PM
--Simon is 4-0, 2.94 in his last five starts.
--Cain is 0-3, 9.35 in his last three starts.
--Cincinnati won 11 of its last 14 road games.
--Giants lost ten of their last twelve home games.
--11 of 15 Simon starts stayed under the total.
•Arizona-San Diego - 10:10 PM
--Collmenter is 1-2, 5.87 in his last four starts.
--Stults is 0-5, 7.11 in his last five starts.
--Diamondbacks lost ten of their last fifteen games.
--Padres lost their last three home games.
--Nine of last eleven games at Petco Park stayed under.
American League
•White Sox-Blue Jays - 1:05 PM
--Sale is 3-1, 2.66 in his last seven starts.
--Stroman is 3-1, 2.08 in four home starts.
--White Sox lost ten of their last twelve road games.
--Blue Jays lost seven of their last eleven games.
--Seven of last ten Toronto games went over the total.
•Angels-Royals - 2:10 PM
--Santiago is 0-7, 5.48 in nine starts this season.
--Ventura is 3-1, 2.67 in his last four starts.
--Angels won six of their last seven games, but lost 10 of last 13 on road.
--Kansas City lost six of its last eight games.
--Five of last seven Ventura home starts stayed under total.
•Twins-Rangers - 4:05 PM
--Hughes is 5-1, 1.43 in his last six road starts.
--Darvish is 0-2, 9.82 in his last couple starts.
--Minnesota lost its last nine road games.
--Rangers lost eight of their last nine games overall.
--Under is 6-1-1 in Minnesota's last eight road games.
•Rays-Orioles - 4:05 PM
--Bedard is 0-1, 6.75 in his last three starts.
--Chen is 2-0, 2.61 in his last five starts.
--Tampa Bay lost 12 of its last 15 road games.
--Orioles won seven of their last ten games.
--Five of last seven Chen starts went over the total.
•Tigers-Astros - 4:10 PM
--Scherzer is 2-1, 2.08 in his last three road starts.
--Keuchel is 2-1, 1.57 in his last three home starts.
--Detroit won six of its last eight games.
--Houston lost eight of its last eleven games.
--Five of last seven Scherzer starts went over the total.
•Boston-Yankees - 7:15 PM
--Red Sox won last three Lester starts (2-0, 2.45).
--Tanaka is 5-1, 1.90 in his last six starts.
--Red Sox lost 13 of their last 16 road games.
--Yankees lost four of its last six games, but won last two.
--Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Tanaka starts.
•Indians-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Tomlin is 0-3, 10.80 in his last three starts.
--Elias is 4-1, 3.21 in his last five starts.
--Cleveland lost six of its last eight games.
--Seattle won six of its last seven games.
--Four of last five Tomlin starts went over the total.
Interleague
•Athletics-Marlins - 4:10 PM
--Gray is 1-2, 4.91 in his last three starts, last of which was ten days ago.
--Eovaldi is 1-1, 5.11 in his last four starts.
--A's won nine of their last twelve games.
--Miami lost five of its last six home games.
--Last four Oakland games went over the total.
•Umpires Trends
-- Wsh-Chi--10 of 13 Layne games went over the total. Five of last six Wendelstedt games stayed under.
-- Atl-Phil-- Alll five Marquez games stayed under total.
-- NY-Pitt-- Seven of nine Basner games went over total.
-- Col-Mil-- Seven of last nine Iassogna games stayed under.
-- StL-LA-- Five of six Everitt games went over the total.
-- Cin-SF-- Six of last nine Bellino games stayed under.
-- Az-SD-- Home team won 14 of 16 Davis games this season.
-- Chi-Tor-- Underdogs won five of last eight Reynolds games.
-- LA-KC-- Five of last seven TWelke games stayed under.
-- Min-Tex-- Nine of last eleven BWelke games stayed under.
-- TB-Blt-- Underdogs won nine of twelve Wolf games.
-- Det-Hst-- Underdogs won seven of last nine Cederstrom games; four of last five stayed under the total.
-- Bos-NY-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Fletcher games.
-- Cle-Sea-- Underdogs won 11 of last 13 Hudson games; four of his last five games went over total.
-- A's-Mia-- Underdogs won ten of last twelve Drake games.
Diamond Trends - Saturday
•LA DODGERS are 1-9 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in home games after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs this season.
The average score was LA DODGERS 2.4, OPPONENT 4.8.
•BALTIMORE is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) in home games versus good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 2.9, OPPONENT 2.5.
•CLEVELAND is 6-23 (-25.5 Units) against the run line versus an American League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 3.3, OPPONENT 6.1.
•ALFREDO SIMON is 12-0 (+13.2 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.
The average score was SIMON 3.9, OPPONENT 1.7.
•YU DARVISH is 16-4 UNDER (+12.1 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DARVISH 3.7, OPPONENT 2.3.
•MATT CAIN is 7-31 (-23.4 Units) against the run line in home games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse since 1997.
The average score was CAIN 2.9, OPPONENT 4.0.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (TEXAS) - team with a poor on base percentage (<=.320) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.300) - American League, starting a pitcher who walked 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings.
(37-12 since 1997.) (75.5%, +36.5 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +130.9
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 3.4 (Average run differential = +1.1)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-3, +3.7 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-5, +19 units).
•Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (BALTIMORE) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) - American League, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
(64-22 since 1997.) (74.4%, +45.8 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (58-28)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.7, money line price: +106
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 4.1 (Average run differential = +0.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 54 (62.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1, +6.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-8, +16.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (35-13, +24.5 units).
•Play Under - Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (NY YANKEES) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.300) - American League, after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs.
(33-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.6%, +26.6 units. Rating = 5*)
The average total posted in these games was: 7.6, Money Line=-105.8
The average score in these games was: Team 3, Opponent 2.7 (Total runs scored = 5.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 26 (72.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-3, +15.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (74-41, +27.8 units).
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