SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona –1.02 over CHICAGO
Rich Harden was a hotly pursued commodity over the offseason. As iffy and unreliable as he's been throughout his career, he's always flashed elite-level talent, talent that allowed him to rack up 352 strikeouts over 289 innings between 2008-2009. Harden really struggled in three of his first five starts but all of those games he struggled in were at Chase Field, a hitter’s paradise. In his last start in Colorado he walked just two, struck out 10 and went eight full innings and allowed just five hits and two runs. In his other road start against the Dodgers, he went six innings and allowed just two runs. He now has 38 k’s and eight walks in 34 innings and he’ll face a Cubbies team that is very average in everything. Carlos Silva is a prime example of why the AL is so much better than the NL. Silva could barely stay in the rotation when he pitched for the Twinkies and Mariners. This guy is a career stiff with a career BAA of .302 and an ERA near 5 over 163 starts or close to 1200 innings. This season in four starts he’s 2-0 with a BAA of .183 and an ERA of 1.73. However, he faced the Reds, Astros and Mets in his first three starts and in his last start against Washington he allowed three earned runs in seven innings. It was another quality start, barely, but he’ll face his stiffest test to date when he faces the NL’s leading offense. It’s only a matter of time before Silva implodes because he’s not that good and when Haren is a pooch against the Cubbies and Silva, it’s time to pull the trigger. Play: Arizona –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Washington +1.50 over FLORIDA
Yesterday we had Stammen penciled in against Nolasco but the Nats moved Stammen back a day and thus, our position has not changed. The Nats won again last night, they’re really playing some good ball and remain the most undervalued team in the majors. They’re now 13-10, they’ve won three in a row and five of its last seven and they’re getting solid pitching. Craig Stammen is a better pitcher than his 6.75 ERA suggests. He has outstanding command and has a good groundball ratio but has been rather unfortunate in a couple of starts. He’s been hit hard twice by the Phillies but his last two starts at Coors Field and at home against the Dodgers have both been quality starts. The Marlins have dropped three in a row and five of its last six. Chris Volstad is a decent pitcher and he, too, is better than his 5.79 ERA. Volstad is inducing quite a few grounders, which is always a good sign but his command is a bit of a concern, as he only has nine k’s and he’s walked the exact same number of batters. Both of these pitchers are capable of seven strong innings and both are capable of getting run out of the fourth. Thing is, the Nats are very warm while the Fish are cold and at this price the Nationals are once again way undervalued. Play: Washington +1.50 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati +1.63 over ST. LOUIS
The equation here is a simple one that goes like this: Kyle Lohse should never be this big a favorite over anyone and when he is bet against him. Yeah, the Cards can win this one for sure but Lohse is another one of those career stiffs that can’t be trusted and you can double that at this price. His two decent starts came against the feeble hitting Astros and Braves. In his other two starts he was rocked to the tune of 14 hits and 11 earned runs nine innings. He has walked more batters (9) than he’s struck out (7) and his groundball/flyball ratio 35/46 is also reason for concern. Lohse has already allowed 26 hits and 16 earned runs in 22 innings, his WHIP is 1.59 and his BAA stands at .306. Homer Bailey is a talented hurler that has never lived up to his potential. He’s shown flashes on numerous occasions but then regresses usually the very next start. He’s hit and miss and if he can get through the first couple of innings unscathed he can pitch deep into games. He has yet to pitch a strong game this season and his numbers are not good but he’s pitched three games at the always tough Great American Ballpark and this venue will suit him much better. Anyway, the risk is worth the reward and there is no denying the value in playing against Lohse. Play: Cincinnati +1.63 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +1.02 over CLEVELAND
Sometimes it’s not about pitching. Besides, who the hell is Justin Masterson or the Tribe to be favored over the Twins? Masterson faced Minnesota 11 days ago and didn’t make it out of the fifth inning. In his last start he didn’t make it out of the fifth either and that was in pitcher-friendly Oakland. Over his last two starts, Masterson has surrendered 12 runs over eight frames. His WHIP on the year is a staggering 1.95 and his BAA is .325. Incidentally, Masterson is 0-3 in his career against Minnesota with an ERA of 5.63 and he hasn’t won a game since last August. Furthermore, the Twins are loaded with great hitters off to great starts and that includes Joe Mauer that’s hitting .345, Morneau is hitting .347, Cuddyer is batting .309 and the O-Dog is batting .301. The Indians are barely batting their weight. Jeff Manship hasn’t proven a thing at this level but this isn’t about wagering oh him. The combination of Masterson and the Indians can’t win a game and are about the most unappealing favorite on the board. Play: Minnesota +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO -½ +1.14 over Vancouver
The Blackhawks are –1.40 to win today but if the game goes into OT I wouldn’t want to be risking the juice in an OT game and therefore the play here is the Blackhawks in regulation. Chicago had a very tough opponent in its first round series and finished off the Preds, a physical team with great goaltending and a great defense, in very impressive fashion. The Canucks have neither great goaltending nor great defense and they're very vulnerable, especially on the road, to an explosive team like the Blackhawks. Roberto Luongo has regressed the past couple of years as much as any goaltender in the league. He appears slower and he’s constantly out of position. Frankly, I’m not sure what happened to him because at one time he was considered the best but that label is long gone and now he’s just very average. The Canucks were under .500 on the road this season and its first round opponent, the Kings, were a much easier out than the Preds. The Blackhawks ended that series by scoring five goals in each of the last two games and that’s an impressive number against the stingy Predators. The Canucks take a lot of penalties and with the joint absolutely rocking here, you can expect the home-ice advantage to come into play when the refs call several penalties on Vancouver to please the crowd. Chicago’s goaltending is not its strength bit Niemi is no worse than Luongo and Chicago allowed less goals during the season than the Canucks. Chicago could be the cream of the crop in the NHL this year and that enormous talent should prevail in game one. Play: Chicago -½ +1.14 (Risking 2 units).