SPORTS ADVISORS
SATURDAY, MAY 1
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston (4-1 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (4-1, 2-3 ATS)
The Cavaliers, the top overall seed in the playoffs, resume their quest for LeBron James’ first championship when they face the fourth-seeded Celtics in Game 1 of the conference semifinals at Quicken Loans Arena. Cleveland beat the eighth-seeded Bulls in five games in the first round, but after winning and covering in Game 1, the Cavs went just 1-3 ATS the rest of the series. They finished off Chicago on Tuesday with a 96-94 victory, but fell way short as a 12½-point home favorite. One game after notching a triple-double, James had a double-double of 19 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists in the clincher. However, he fell well below his playoff average of 31.8 ppg, and he’s dealing with a right elbow injury that forced him to shoot a left-handed free throw (which he missed) in the closing seconds of the Game 5 win. Antawn Jamison led Cleveland with 25 points in Tuesday’s victory, going 8 of 14 from the floor, including 3 of 7 from three-point range. The Cavs shot a solid 49.1 percent in the series and limited the Bulls to 43.9 percent. Boston also advanced in five games and has been off since Tuesday, when it dropped Miami 96-86 as a seven-point home chalk. Sharpshooter Ray Allen led the Celtics with 24 points in the deciding game, knocking down 5 of 6 from long distance in the process. Paul Pierce added 21 points, and Rajon Rondo had 16 points and a dozen assists. Doc Rivers’ troops shot 47.4 percent in the first round, while holding Miami to 43.5 percent.
Boston is 27-16 on the highway (22-20-1 ATS) this year – including 1-1 SU and ATS in Miami – putting up 98.0 ppg on 47.7 percent shooting and allowing 94.4 ppg on 44.4 percent shooting. Cleveland is 38-6 SU at home this year, including taking all three home contests against Chicago. However, the Cavs are just 18-26 ATS at the Q, outscoring visitors by an average of about nine ppg (103.1-94.3), while outshooting visitors by a 49.6 percent to 43.9 percent margin. In the last meeting between these rivals, Boston nearly squandered a 22-point lead, holding on to win a 117-113 shootout as a 1½-point home pup on April 4, overcoming a 42-point effort from James, who reached that number despite going 0-for-9 from beyond the arc. Despite the win and cover, the Celtics are still 4-10 ATS in their last 14 clashes with the Cleveland. In fact, the Cavs are 18-7-2 ATS in the last 27 meetings, including a 6-1 ATS roll in the last seven meetings at the Q.
These teams split four meetings this year, with the SU winner cashing each time, and each squad netted a home win and a road win. The host (and favorite) are 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups. Boston and Cleveland also met in the second round of the playoffs two years ago, with the C’s taking the series in seven games on their way to the title, but the Cavs went 6-1 ATS, covering the last five games. The Cavaliers are on ATS purges of 4-11 overall (2-6 last eight), 0-6 against winning teams, 1-7 after a SU win, 6-14 following a non-cover and 3-9 as a favorite.**** However, they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 17-5-1 in second-round playoff games, 17-7-1 as a playoff chalk and 11-5 after three or more days’ rest. Along with their 4-1 ATS run in the first round, the Celtics are on pointspread upswings of 5-1 on Saturday, 9-3-1 as a postseason pup, 14-6 catching five to 10½ points and 23-10 as a road ‘dog of that same price. That said, Boston shoulders negative ATS trends of 1-5 after a break of three or more days, 2-7 after a SU win, 4-13 in second-round contests and 6-16-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The under is 17-5 in Cleveland’s last 22 conference semifinal contests, but the Cavs are otherwise on a bundle of “over” surges, including 10-1 against Atlantic Division foes, 7-2 as a playoff favorite, 5-0 as a playoff chalk of five to 10½ points and 4-1 after a SU win. Likewise, Boston is on “over” sprees of 10-4 overall, 4-1 on the road, 6-1 against the Central Division, 6-1 as a pup, 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS win and 5-2 as a playoff ‘dog, though the under has been the play in the Celts’ last four second-round games.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total cleared the posted price in all four meetings this season and is 5-1 in the last six contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (14-9) at Philadelphia (12-10)
Roy Halladay (4-1, 1.80 ERA) tries to bounce back from his first loss of the season when he leads the Phillies against Mike Pelfrey (4-0, 0.69) and the streaking Mets as these N.L. East rivals continue their three-game series at Citizens Bank Park.
New York took a seven-game winning streak into Friday’s series opener and pounded the Phillies 9-1 to take over sole possession of first place in the N.L. East. Not only have the Mets won eight in a row, but they’re 10-1 in their last 11 games, outscoring the opposition 54-15 in the 10 wins. Jerry Manuel’s club is on additional surges of 7-0 against right-handed starters and 5-2 on Saturday, but they’re still in slumps of 17-38 on the road, 16-38 against N.L. East rivals and 7-16 in their last 22 versus winning teams. Since starting the season 8-2, the Phillies have lost eight of 12, including three straight at home, and they’re 2-8 in their last 10 on Saturday. On the bright side, Philadelphia went 12-6 against the Mets last year, and despite Friday’s result, the Phils are still 11-3 in the last 14 meetings, including 6-2 in the last eight at Citizens Bank. Pelfrey gave up two runs on four hits in six innings in his season debut on April 9, beating the Nationals 8-2 at home. But since the second inning of that contest, he’s pitched 24 scoreless innings in four appearances (three starts), yielding a total of 14 hits and nine walks while striking out 15. New York posted shutouts in all three starts, beating the Rockies 5-0 (road), the Cubs 4-0 (home) and the Braves 1-0 (home). Despite Pelfrey’s recent success overall, the Mets are still just 2-6 in his last eight outings on the highway, and last year he went 4-7 with a 6.72 ERA in 14 road contests. However, New York won four of Pelfrey’s five starts against the Phillies last year, and Pelfrey is 4-2 with a 4.82 ERA in nine career starts against Philadelphia, but 1-1 with a 7.17 ERA in four games at Citizens Bank. In fact, the Phillies at home are batting .341 against Pelfrey. In two starts last year in Philadelphia, Pelfrey gave up 11 runs and 18 hits in 11 1/3 innings, but the Mets won both games (7-4 and 10-9). After four straight gems to begin his Phillies career, Halladay finally got touched up Monday in San Francisco, giving up five runs on 10 hits in seven innings of a 5-1 loss. That ended a string of eight straight quality starts for Halladay, who gave up two runs or less in seven of those games and registered four complete games. The veteran right-hander still has six complete games in his last 11 outings, allowing a total of 16 earned runs in 89 innings (1.61 ERA). Four of Halladay’s first five starts have come on the road, with his lone game at Citizens Park resulting in an 8-6 win over the Marlins (two runs allowed in eight innings). Halladay is a mediocre 2-2 with a 5.55 ERA in four career starts against the Mets (all in interleague play when he was with Toronto). The Mets are on “under” runs of 10-4-1 overall, 6-0 against N.L. East foes, 4-0 on Saturday, 5-1 overall behind Pelfrey and 4-1-1 when Pelfrey works on Saturday. The under is also 5-1 in Philadelphia’s last six divisional games and 4-0 in its last four in the second game of a series. On the flip side, though, the Phillies carry lengthy “over” streaks of 34-16-2 overall, 10-3-1 at home, 23-10-2 versus right-handed starters and 6-1-1 at home against righties.
Finally, these teams barely stayed under the 10½-run total Friday, making the under 11-2 in the last 13 series meetings overall, including 7-1 in the last eight in Philadelphia.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (12-12) at Detroit (14-10)
Two veteran pitchers off to slow starts hope to get back on track at Comerica Park, where the Tigers and Jeremy Bonderman (1-1, 6.97 ERA) match up against the Angels and southpaw Scott Kazmir (2-1, 7.20) in the middle game of a weekend series. Detroit stretched its winning streak to three in a row with Friday’s 10-6 rout of Los Angeles, scoring eight runs in the fourth inning to erase a 4-2 deficit. The Tigers are on positive runs of 7-3 at home this year, 9-4 in their last 13 against lefty starters and 21-7 in their last 28 at home versus southpaws. Los Angeles has followed up a five-game winning streak by going 4-5 in its last nine games. Still, Mike Scioscia’s squad is on surges of 7-3 versus winning teams, 13-6 on Saturday and 7-3 with Kazmir starting. These teams split a four-game set in Anaheim earlier this month, with Los Angeles taking the first two contests (2-0 and 6-5) and Detroit posting one-run wins in the last two (4-3 and 5-4). Even though the Tigers have won the last three in a row, the Angels remain on a 49-24 overall run against the Tigers. Kazmir faced the Tigers on April 20 at home and gave up two runs on six hits with seven strikeouts and no walks in 5 2/3 innings, picking up a 6-5 win. He followed that with Sunday’s 8-4 home victory over the Yankees, though he survived just 5 1/3 innings after surrendering four runs on three hits and four walks. The veteran southpaw has not made it out of the sixth inning in four straight starts going back to last year’s playoffs, and he’s gone six straight starts without a quality outing (at least six innings pitched and three earned runs or less allowed). Kazmir’s first start of 2010 came on the road, and he got pounded at Yankee Stadium (six runs allowed – including three home runs – in four innings of a 6-2 loss). He’s made five career starts at Comerica Park, going 2-2 with a 3.25 ERA, part of an overall 3-4 mark with a 4.50 ERA in nine lifetime starts versus Detroit. Bonderman’s longest outing of the season came at Angel Stadium on April 21, when he yielded just three runs on three hits in six innings, getting a no-decision as Detroit pulled out a 4-3 victory. The right-hander followed that with another no-decision Sunday in Texas, yielding four runs on six hits in 5 2/3 innings, with Detroit prevailing 8-6. Bonderman’s one victory came in his only home start to date, as he held the Indians to a run on one hit in five innings of a 4-2 win on April 10. With last month’s performance in L.A., Bonderman is now 3-3 with a 4.66 ERA in 11 career starts against the Angels, giving up three earned runs or fewer and pitching at least six innings in seven of the last nine. The Halos sport “under” streaks of 20-7 on the road, 14-5-1 versus the A.L. Central, 19-7-1 in the second game of a series, 13-4 against right-handed starters on the road, 5-0 on Saturday and 4-1 with Kazmir pitching on the road. However, the over is 4-1 in Kazmir’s past five starts overall, while Detroit is on “over” surges of 6-2-1 overall, 6-2 at home, 5-0-1 versus the A.L. West and 12-3-2 when Bonderman faces A.L. West squads. That said, the under is 13-6-2 in Bonderman’s last 21 starts overall. Finally, the under is 6-3-1 the last nine times the Angels have visited Motown, though Friday’s slugfest easily cleared the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
SATURDAY, MAY 1
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston (4-1 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (4-1, 2-3 ATS)
The Cavaliers, the top overall seed in the playoffs, resume their quest for LeBron James’ first championship when they face the fourth-seeded Celtics in Game 1 of the conference semifinals at Quicken Loans Arena. Cleveland beat the eighth-seeded Bulls in five games in the first round, but after winning and covering in Game 1, the Cavs went just 1-3 ATS the rest of the series. They finished off Chicago on Tuesday with a 96-94 victory, but fell way short as a 12½-point home favorite. One game after notching a triple-double, James had a double-double of 19 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists in the clincher. However, he fell well below his playoff average of 31.8 ppg, and he’s dealing with a right elbow injury that forced him to shoot a left-handed free throw (which he missed) in the closing seconds of the Game 5 win. Antawn Jamison led Cleveland with 25 points in Tuesday’s victory, going 8 of 14 from the floor, including 3 of 7 from three-point range. The Cavs shot a solid 49.1 percent in the series and limited the Bulls to 43.9 percent. Boston also advanced in five games and has been off since Tuesday, when it dropped Miami 96-86 as a seven-point home chalk. Sharpshooter Ray Allen led the Celtics with 24 points in the deciding game, knocking down 5 of 6 from long distance in the process. Paul Pierce added 21 points, and Rajon Rondo had 16 points and a dozen assists. Doc Rivers’ troops shot 47.4 percent in the first round, while holding Miami to 43.5 percent.
Boston is 27-16 on the highway (22-20-1 ATS) this year – including 1-1 SU and ATS in Miami – putting up 98.0 ppg on 47.7 percent shooting and allowing 94.4 ppg on 44.4 percent shooting. Cleveland is 38-6 SU at home this year, including taking all three home contests against Chicago. However, the Cavs are just 18-26 ATS at the Q, outscoring visitors by an average of about nine ppg (103.1-94.3), while outshooting visitors by a 49.6 percent to 43.9 percent margin. In the last meeting between these rivals, Boston nearly squandered a 22-point lead, holding on to win a 117-113 shootout as a 1½-point home pup on April 4, overcoming a 42-point effort from James, who reached that number despite going 0-for-9 from beyond the arc. Despite the win and cover, the Celtics are still 4-10 ATS in their last 14 clashes with the Cleveland. In fact, the Cavs are 18-7-2 ATS in the last 27 meetings, including a 6-1 ATS roll in the last seven meetings at the Q.
These teams split four meetings this year, with the SU winner cashing each time, and each squad netted a home win and a road win. The host (and favorite) are 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups. Boston and Cleveland also met in the second round of the playoffs two years ago, with the C’s taking the series in seven games on their way to the title, but the Cavs went 6-1 ATS, covering the last five games. The Cavaliers are on ATS purges of 4-11 overall (2-6 last eight), 0-6 against winning teams, 1-7 after a SU win, 6-14 following a non-cover and 3-9 as a favorite.**** However, they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 17-5-1 in second-round playoff games, 17-7-1 as a playoff chalk and 11-5 after three or more days’ rest. Along with their 4-1 ATS run in the first round, the Celtics are on pointspread upswings of 5-1 on Saturday, 9-3-1 as a postseason pup, 14-6 catching five to 10½ points and 23-10 as a road ‘dog of that same price. That said, Boston shoulders negative ATS trends of 1-5 after a break of three or more days, 2-7 after a SU win, 4-13 in second-round contests and 6-16-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The under is 17-5 in Cleveland’s last 22 conference semifinal contests, but the Cavs are otherwise on a bundle of “over” surges, including 10-1 against Atlantic Division foes, 7-2 as a playoff favorite, 5-0 as a playoff chalk of five to 10½ points and 4-1 after a SU win. Likewise, Boston is on “over” sprees of 10-4 overall, 4-1 on the road, 6-1 against the Central Division, 6-1 as a pup, 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS win and 5-2 as a playoff ‘dog, though the under has been the play in the Celts’ last four second-round games.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total cleared the posted price in all four meetings this season and is 5-1 in the last six contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (14-9) at Philadelphia (12-10)
Roy Halladay (4-1, 1.80 ERA) tries to bounce back from his first loss of the season when he leads the Phillies against Mike Pelfrey (4-0, 0.69) and the streaking Mets as these N.L. East rivals continue their three-game series at Citizens Bank Park.
New York took a seven-game winning streak into Friday’s series opener and pounded the Phillies 9-1 to take over sole possession of first place in the N.L. East. Not only have the Mets won eight in a row, but they’re 10-1 in their last 11 games, outscoring the opposition 54-15 in the 10 wins. Jerry Manuel’s club is on additional surges of 7-0 against right-handed starters and 5-2 on Saturday, but they’re still in slumps of 17-38 on the road, 16-38 against N.L. East rivals and 7-16 in their last 22 versus winning teams. Since starting the season 8-2, the Phillies have lost eight of 12, including three straight at home, and they’re 2-8 in their last 10 on Saturday. On the bright side, Philadelphia went 12-6 against the Mets last year, and despite Friday’s result, the Phils are still 11-3 in the last 14 meetings, including 6-2 in the last eight at Citizens Bank. Pelfrey gave up two runs on four hits in six innings in his season debut on April 9, beating the Nationals 8-2 at home. But since the second inning of that contest, he’s pitched 24 scoreless innings in four appearances (three starts), yielding a total of 14 hits and nine walks while striking out 15. New York posted shutouts in all three starts, beating the Rockies 5-0 (road), the Cubs 4-0 (home) and the Braves 1-0 (home). Despite Pelfrey’s recent success overall, the Mets are still just 2-6 in his last eight outings on the highway, and last year he went 4-7 with a 6.72 ERA in 14 road contests. However, New York won four of Pelfrey’s five starts against the Phillies last year, and Pelfrey is 4-2 with a 4.82 ERA in nine career starts against Philadelphia, but 1-1 with a 7.17 ERA in four games at Citizens Bank. In fact, the Phillies at home are batting .341 against Pelfrey. In two starts last year in Philadelphia, Pelfrey gave up 11 runs and 18 hits in 11 1/3 innings, but the Mets won both games (7-4 and 10-9). After four straight gems to begin his Phillies career, Halladay finally got touched up Monday in San Francisco, giving up five runs on 10 hits in seven innings of a 5-1 loss. That ended a string of eight straight quality starts for Halladay, who gave up two runs or less in seven of those games and registered four complete games. The veteran right-hander still has six complete games in his last 11 outings, allowing a total of 16 earned runs in 89 innings (1.61 ERA). Four of Halladay’s first five starts have come on the road, with his lone game at Citizens Park resulting in an 8-6 win over the Marlins (two runs allowed in eight innings). Halladay is a mediocre 2-2 with a 5.55 ERA in four career starts against the Mets (all in interleague play when he was with Toronto). The Mets are on “under” runs of 10-4-1 overall, 6-0 against N.L. East foes, 4-0 on Saturday, 5-1 overall behind Pelfrey and 4-1-1 when Pelfrey works on Saturday. The under is also 5-1 in Philadelphia’s last six divisional games and 4-0 in its last four in the second game of a series. On the flip side, though, the Phillies carry lengthy “over” streaks of 34-16-2 overall, 10-3-1 at home, 23-10-2 versus right-handed starters and 6-1-1 at home against righties.
Finally, these teams barely stayed under the 10½-run total Friday, making the under 11-2 in the last 13 series meetings overall, including 7-1 in the last eight in Philadelphia.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (12-12) at Detroit (14-10)
Two veteran pitchers off to slow starts hope to get back on track at Comerica Park, where the Tigers and Jeremy Bonderman (1-1, 6.97 ERA) match up against the Angels and southpaw Scott Kazmir (2-1, 7.20) in the middle game of a weekend series. Detroit stretched its winning streak to three in a row with Friday’s 10-6 rout of Los Angeles, scoring eight runs in the fourth inning to erase a 4-2 deficit. The Tigers are on positive runs of 7-3 at home this year, 9-4 in their last 13 against lefty starters and 21-7 in their last 28 at home versus southpaws. Los Angeles has followed up a five-game winning streak by going 4-5 in its last nine games. Still, Mike Scioscia’s squad is on surges of 7-3 versus winning teams, 13-6 on Saturday and 7-3 with Kazmir starting. These teams split a four-game set in Anaheim earlier this month, with Los Angeles taking the first two contests (2-0 and 6-5) and Detroit posting one-run wins in the last two (4-3 and 5-4). Even though the Tigers have won the last three in a row, the Angels remain on a 49-24 overall run against the Tigers. Kazmir faced the Tigers on April 20 at home and gave up two runs on six hits with seven strikeouts and no walks in 5 2/3 innings, picking up a 6-5 win. He followed that with Sunday’s 8-4 home victory over the Yankees, though he survived just 5 1/3 innings after surrendering four runs on three hits and four walks. The veteran southpaw has not made it out of the sixth inning in four straight starts going back to last year’s playoffs, and he’s gone six straight starts without a quality outing (at least six innings pitched and three earned runs or less allowed). Kazmir’s first start of 2010 came on the road, and he got pounded at Yankee Stadium (six runs allowed – including three home runs – in four innings of a 6-2 loss). He’s made five career starts at Comerica Park, going 2-2 with a 3.25 ERA, part of an overall 3-4 mark with a 4.50 ERA in nine lifetime starts versus Detroit. Bonderman’s longest outing of the season came at Angel Stadium on April 21, when he yielded just three runs on three hits in six innings, getting a no-decision as Detroit pulled out a 4-3 victory. The right-hander followed that with another no-decision Sunday in Texas, yielding four runs on six hits in 5 2/3 innings, with Detroit prevailing 8-6. Bonderman’s one victory came in his only home start to date, as he held the Indians to a run on one hit in five innings of a 4-2 win on April 10. With last month’s performance in L.A., Bonderman is now 3-3 with a 4.66 ERA in 11 career starts against the Angels, giving up three earned runs or fewer and pitching at least six innings in seven of the last nine. The Halos sport “under” streaks of 20-7 on the road, 14-5-1 versus the A.L. Central, 19-7-1 in the second game of a series, 13-4 against right-handed starters on the road, 5-0 on Saturday and 4-1 with Kazmir pitching on the road. However, the over is 4-1 in Kazmir’s past five starts overall, while Detroit is on “over” surges of 6-2-1 overall, 6-2 at home, 5-0-1 versus the A.L. West and 12-3-2 when Bonderman faces A.L. West squads. That said, the under is 13-6-2 in Bonderman’s last 21 starts overall. Finally, the under is 6-3-1 the last nine times the Angels have visited Motown, though Friday’s slugfest easily cleared the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
