Service Plays Saturday 4/2/11

[GATA]

Gold Sheet

HHH​

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MEMPHIS 112 - Minnesota 90—Both teams played last night,
Memphis in New Orleans and Minny at home against Miami. The Grizzlies, who
are one of the strongest pointspread teams at home this season at 24-13, are
15-4 against the number in second night of back-to-back games. Memphis has
won and covered all three meetings against the Timberwolves this season, as
Zach Randolph has been extremely successful against counterpart Kevin Love,
scoring 24 ppg & pulling down 12 rpg against the Timberwolves while making
58% of his shots. Love is nursing a groin injury this time around, and it’s
doubtful he’ll play back-to-back games (or at least a full allotment of minutes).
Minny has scored just 89 ppg and has shot 38% as a team against Memphis this
season, and doubt that will change the way Memphis is playing down the stretch
(allowed 87 ppg in 6-0 pointspread run prior to N.O. game). 10-MEM -7 109-
89 (210), Mem -2' 102-84 (210), Mem -3 104-95 (204); 09-MEM -9 97-87 (205),
Mem -3 97-95 (202), MEM -7' 135-110 (209), MIN +2' 109-102 (209)​

CHICAGO 109 - Toronto 84—​

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We’re not going to get Chicago at a cheap
price from the oddsmakers, with the Bulls winning 20 of their last 24 SU to zoom
to the top of the East playoff queue and faring almost as well vs. the number (18-
6) as they have straight up in their last 24 games thru March 31. And with
Toronto hardly closing with a rush, losing 5 in a row SU and dropping 4 of those
vs. the line entering April in its latest slump, we have to be prepared to lay some
heavy lumber with Chicago. But we don’t mind doing it, with the Bulls likely extra
motivated by revenge after a stunning loss to the 8½-point dog Raptors in the
last meeting at Air Canada Centre on Feb. 23, when Tom Thibodeau’s normallystingy
defense allowed Toronto to hit an astounding 58% from the floor in that
118-113 upset. Note that Chicago had dominated in earlier 17 and 20-point
wins, and, revenge motive aside, it’s unlikely Bulls go flat at the United Center
in their first home game since a rare no-show on Monday vs. the Sixers,
especially with Carlos Boozer (who enjoyed his highest-scoring game since
Feb. 23 when tallying 24 in Wednesday’s romp at Minnesota) apparently fully
healed from recent sprained ankle. 10-Chi -6 110-93 (201), CHI -9' 111-91​

(199), TOR +8' 118-113 (199); 09-TOR -5' 99-89 (207), Tor +6 110-78 (205)

 

[jdsabre]

NBA
Write-Up


Saturday, April 2

Hot Teams
-- Memphis won six of last seven games, covered last six.
-- Bulls are 16-3-1 vs spread in their last 20 home games.
-- 76ers won/covered last three games, winning by 12-11-25 points.
-- Mavericks covered four of their last five road games.
-- Thunder won five of their last six games.

Cold Teams
-- Minnesota lost its last nine games, last two by 17-19 points.
-- Toronto lost its last five games (2-3 vs spread).
-- Milwaukee lost three of its last four games.
-- Warriors lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Clippers lost three of last four games, covered one of last nine.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Memphis games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Chicago games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Philly games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Dallas games stayed under the total. Four of last five Golden State games went over.
-- Six of last nine Clipper games stayed under the total.

Back-to-Back
-- Memphis is 13-3-1 vs spread overall if it played the night before. Minnesota is 7-4 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Bulls are 12-7-1 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Milwaukee is 3-6 vs spread at home if it played night before. 76ers are 1-4 vs spread on road if they won the night before.
-- Oklahoma City is 5-2 vs spread when it is playing second straight night on road. Clippers are 3-4 vs spread at home if they played night before.

 

[jdsabre]

NCAAB
Write-Up


Saturday, April 2

VCU is shooting 43.8% from arc in this tournament; now they move to a domed football stadium, harder to shoot in a dome. Butler has advantage in that they they won a day earlier, had 24 extra hours to deal with all the hype, plus Bulldogs played in Final Four LY, so they should be OK dealing with distractions. That said, VCU is on incredible run; who can give them points? Butler beat Old Dominion at buzzer in first round of NCAAs; VCU lost two of three to the Monarchs this season. Only one of Rams' five wins in NCAAs has been by less than 10 points- they've covered 10 of last 12 as an underdog. Butler hasn't lost since being upset Feb 3 at Youngstown-- they covered four of last six as a favorite.

2006 was last time a Final Four didn't have a #1 seed; favorites covered two of three games that year. UConn (+5) hammered Kentucky 84-67 in final of Maui Classic back in November, leading 50-29 at half!!!! Knight was 3-15 from floor, 0-8 on arc; Huskies' emerging star Lamb played 11 minutes; he has a much bigger role now. Odd stat: winner of East Region is 0-5 in national semifinals the last five years. Wildcats covered six of last seven as a favorite. UConn covered four in a row as a dog. SEC team favored over a Big East team would appear to be spot for the Big East side. Under is 7-1-1 last nine Kentucky games, 4-1 in Huskies' last five.

 

[jdsabre]

NHL
Write-Up


Saturday, April 2

Hot Teams
-- Lightning won its last three games, allowing five goals. Minnesota won its last two games, after losing its previous eight.
-- Predators won seven of their last eight games.
-- Kings won four of their last five games.
-- Devils won three of their last four home games.
-- Washington is 13-3 in its last sixteen games. Buffalo won four of its last five games.
-- Carolina won five of its last six games.
-- Maple Leafs won five of their last six games. Ottawa won its last three home games, allowing three goals.
-- Vancouver won five in row, 12 of last 13 games.
-- San Jose won six of its last seven games. Ducks won seven of their last eight games.

Cold Teams
-- Thrashers are 0-11 in game following their last 11 wins. Bruins are 3-4 in their last seven home games.
-- Red Wings lost last game 10-3, have lost five of last six overall.
-- Dallas Stars lost last five games, scoring eight goals.
-- Canadiens lost four of their last five games.
-- Islanders lost three of their last four games.
-- Florida lost its last seven games, scoring nine goals. Penguins lost their last two games, scoring total of three goals.
-- Oilers lost their last 11 games, scoring 13 goals.

Totals
-- Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Minnesota games.
-- Six of last nine Detroit road games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven Los Angeles games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Montreal road games went over the total. Under is 6-1-2 in last nine New Jersey games.
-- Five of last seven Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Carolina games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2-2 in last nine Florida games.
-- Five of last six Toronto games went over the total. Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Ottawa home games.
-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Edmonton games.
-- Five of last six Anaheim games went over the total.

Back-to-Back
-- New Jersey is 4-10 if it played the night before.

Series records
-- Thrashers lost their last seven visits to Boston.
-- Lightning lost four of last five games against Minnesota.
-- Red Wings lost five of last six games against Nashville.
-- Kings won 14 of their last 20 games against Dallas.
-- Devils won nine of last eleven games against Montreal.
-- Sabres lost four of last five games against Washington.
-- Islanders lost last five games against Carolina.
-- Penguins won eight of last ten games against Florida.
-- Senators won three of last four games against Toronto.
-- Canucks won eight of last nine games against Vancouver.
-- Sharks won eight of last eleven games against Anaheim.

 

[jdsabre]

MLB
Write-Up


Saturday, April 2

For first week or two of any season, not lot of stats make sense, but I'll be giving you pitching stats that refer back to LY. We'll start the umpire stats in late April-- will give you pitcher vs team stats until some of the other stats start to become relevant. We're here every day-- enjoy!!!

Hot pitchers
-- Hanson is 0-0, 0.48 in his last three starts.
-- Zambrano is 7-0, 1.51 in his last eight starts. Maholm is 2-0, 1.93 in his last couple starts.
-- Cain is 6-1, 1.95 in his last eight starts. Lilly is 2-1, 2.05 in his last three starts.
-- Westbrook was 3-1, 1.87 in five home starts for Cardinals LY.
-- Rodriguez is 3-0, 2.75 in his last seven starts.
-- Marcum is 3-2, 3.52 in his last nine starts.
-- DHudson is 4-0, 1.44 in his last seven starts.
-- Lewis was 4-2, 2.06 in his last seven starts LY.

-- Santana is 4-1, 3.40 in his last seven starts.
-- Anderson is 4-0, 2.40 in his last six starts.
-- Lee is 3-2, 2.74 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Lannan is 1-3, 4.82 in his last three home starts.
-- Richard is 2-5, 5.14 in his last seven starts.
-- Nolasco is 1-2, 6.38 in his last three home starts.
-- Wood is 0-2, 4.60 in his last five starts.
-- de la Rosa is 0-3, 4.05 in his last three starts.

-- Liriano is 0-2, 7.07 in his last three starts. Drabek is 0-3, 4.76 in his first three major league starts.
-- EJackson is 1-2, 5.64 in his last six starts. Carrasco is 1-2, 6.00 in his last three starts.
-- Davies is 0-3, 8.18 in his last four starts.
-- Vargas is 0-7, 6.19 in his last eight starts.
-- Burnett is 0-3, 9.39 in his last four starts. Penny is 0-4, 7.27 in his last five starts.
-- Shields is 0-5, 8.18 in his last seven starts. Baltimore prospect Britton was 3-4, 2.98 in 12 starts at AAA Norfolk LY; this is his first big league start.
-- Lackey is 1-2, 6.16 in his last three starts.

Totals
-- Six of last eight Hanson starts stayed under the total.
-- Four of last six Zambrano starts stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Lilly starts stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Westbrook starts stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Rodriguez starts stayed under total.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Nolasco starts. Six of last seven Niese starts went over.
-- Three of Wood's four home starts LY stayed under total.
-- Last five DHudson starts stayed under the total.

-- Last six Liriano starts went over the total.
-- Over is 5-0-1 in EJackson's last six starts.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Santana starts.
-- Six of last nine Vargas starts went over the total.
-- Last three Penny starts went over the total.
-- Four of last five Shields starts stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Lackey starts went over the total.

Pitchers vs teams last year
-- Lannan was 2-0, 3.18 in two starts against the Braves LY. Hanson was 0-1, 5.25 in two starts vs Washington LY.
-- Zambrano beat Pirates 14-2 last Aug 30, allowing one run in 5.2 IP. Maholm was 1-1, 5.71 in three starts against the Cubs.
-- Cain was 2-1, 2.70 in four starts vs LA LY. Lilly was 0-1, 6.97 in two starts against Giants LY.
-- Westbrook blanked Padres for 8 innings last Sept 16, winning 4-0.
-- Rodriguez beat Phillies here 5-1 last Aug 26, going seven innings.
-- Nolasco was 2-0, 4.32 in four starts vs New York LY, giving up three runs in all four games. Niese was 1-4, 7.52 against the Marlins.
-- Wood was 1-0, 3.97 in two starts vs Milwaukee LY.
-- DHudson blanked the Rockies for seven innings Aug 22, in game that Snakes later lost 1-0. de la Rosa was 1-1, 3.46 against Arizona.

-- Liriano lost 13-2 at Toronto Sept 30, giving up five runs in 5.1 IP.
-- EJackson was 2-0, 3.86 against Cleveland LY.
-- Santana was 2-1, 3.32 against the Royals LY. Davies was 0-1, 5.40 in two '10 starts against the Angels.
-- Anderson was 2-1, 1.30 in four '10 starts against Seattle. Vargas was 1-1, 6.10 against the Mariners LY.
-- Shields was 1-2, 7.06 in four starts vs Baltimore LY.
-- Texas native Lackey allowed two runs in seven IP in his only '10 start against the Rangers. Lewis was 1-1, 3.78 in three '10 starts vs Boston.

 

[GATA]

Gold Sheet

Philadelphia 98 - MILWAUKEE 93—​

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Milwaukee is running out of time to
catch Indiana for the 8th and final playoff berth in the East, entering last night’s
action three games behind the Pacers. Meanwhile, Philly is enjoying its best
week in a month with impressive double-digit wins over the hot Bulls and
Rockets. There are more positives to report with the Sixers, whose bench is
scoring a league-high 39.7 ppg, with a balanced lineup featuring eight players
scoring between 7 and 15 ppg. Moreover, 2nd-year G Jrue Holiday is closing
with a rush, scoring 21.3 ppg and dishing 8.3 apg his last three outings before
last night vs. the Nets. Meanwhile, although Bucks kept their faint postseason
hopes alive in last Wednesday’s win at Toronto, Scott Skiles is coming under a
lot of criticism for giving rusty Michael Redd (who hadn’t played in 14 months)
and Drew Gooden some important minutes in last Monday’s crushing 1-point
loss at Charlotte, when the pair combined to hit just 1 of 9 from the floor. Doug
Collins’ Philly bunch should also be motivated to atone for its awful effort at
Bradley Center on March 12, when Sixers were guilty of 20 TOs and scored just​

49 points over the last three quarters​

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of a humiliating 102-74 defeat! 10-PHI +4'
90-79 (188), PHI -4' 95-94 (187), MIL -2 102-74 (185); 09-PHI -6' 99-86 (191),
MIL -2' 91-88 (199), Phi +10 101-86 (191), Mil -4' 95-90 (194)​

Dallas 108 - GOLDEN ST. 94—​

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This matchup used to have a bit of extra
meaning for the Warriors when Don Nelson was still on the sidelines and
coaching against his former employer. But word from Oakland has it that a
clean sweep of the remnants from the Nelson regime is imminent, as new owner
Joe Lacob is likely to hit the eject button on both GM Larry Riley and HC Keith
Smart once the season concludes. Golden State at least more likely to make
a stand at Oracle Arena, where it played Dallas within 6 on March 16, and will
hope to catch the Mavs a bit flat after Thursday’s showdown at Staples Center
against the Lakers, a matchup rife with West playoff seed consequences. We’d
need sufficient points to get interested in Warriors, who after that near-miss at
home vs. Dallas were bombed four nights later in Big D by a 101-73 count, as
Golden State hit only 35% from the floor and scored an embarrassing 10 points
in the 4th quarter. But unless we get word that Monta Ellis can make the post
after tweaking his ankle on Wednesday at Memphis, no reason to push things
with Golden State. 10-DAL -8' 105-100 (205), Dal -3' 112-106 (212), DAL -9 101-
73 (213); 09-Gs +13 111-103 (218), DAL -11' 110-101 (218), Dal -4' 127-117
(217), Dal -3' 111-90 (235)​

Oklahoma City 123 - LA CLIPPERS 114—​

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We think we can count on a bit
more focused effort from Ok City than the Clips, whose prime performances are
becoming fewer and farther between as the season winds down. LA had
dropped 7 of its last 8 vs. the number prior to last night’s game at Phoenix, and
though relatively healthy for one of the few times all season, some Clippers
appear to be hitting the wall, such as G Eric Gordon (just 4 for 16 from the floor
in last Wednesday’s home loss vs. the Mavericks). Meanwhile, playoff-bound
Thunder approaching the final stage of the regular season with purpose, looking
to get recent addition Kendrick Perkins fully indoctrinated into the offense
before the postseason begins, and Scott Brooks’ team is hitting the tape with a
rush, winning 14 of 16 SU in March. The offense is working smoothly, scoring
109.4 ppg the last five (all SU wins) prior to last night’s test at Portland, with 2ndyear
G James Harden (scored 22 on Wednesday at Phoenix) and F Nick
Collison (back in action vs. the Suns after missing previous action with a sore
ankle) adding extra contributions from bench. Teams split first two, with home
sides dominating in each, but prefer to shade the recent form of Ok City in this
one. 10-LA +8' 107-92 (196), OKC -8' 111-88 (206); 09-Okc +2 83-79 (185), La
+5 101-93 (184), Okc -4' 104-87 (201) TV—NBA NETWORK​

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[jdsabre]

Jimmy Boyd

5* Kentucky -2

3* Cincinnati

 

[WINNERS_ONLY]

New Legend Sports
4 unit - Arizona Diamondbacks 1st 5 innings
3 unit - Chicago White Sox -125
3 unit - San Francisco Giants -110 1st 5 innings
2 unit - New York Mets +140 1st 5 innings
2 unit - Houston Astros +225 1st 5 innings​

 

[mojohnny2]

PowerPlayWins Butler -2.5 Over VCU

 

[jdsabre]

SPORTS WAGERS

Kentucky –2 over Connecticut

Nobody has been more instrumental in his team's productivity and success than Kemba Walker has been. He has accounted for 176 of UConn's 289 points in the NCAA tournament or 61%, which is the most of any player in the tournament. Jeremy Lamb is also dangerous and has emerged as a clutch shooter. The Huskies are a good defensive team, they’re an excellent rebounding team and they’re going to be a tough out. However, they rely heavily on two guys to score and the more half-court sets UConn is forced to run, the less effective its offence will be. Frankly, they’re not really a good shooting team. Walker torched Kentucky for 29 in the Maui Classic back in late November. It wouldn't be the last time Walker would wreak havoc on a quality team. John Calipari has experience with "great player" defence from his days in the NBA and this time around he’ll make adjustments and you can bet that DeAndre Liggins will be involved. One could argue that Kentucky has already defeated two teams (Ohio State, North Carolina) that are better than anyone it will face in Houston. Does that mean the Wildcats are the best team at the Final Four? Perhaps not but it could certainly mean UK is the most prepared to win two more games. Play: Kentucky –2 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).


Butler –2½ over VCU

There’s a right time to step in and step out on a team and this could be the right time to step out on the Rams. VCU was a 9½-point pooch against Purdue and an 11-point dog against Kansas and not only covered but won both of those games straight up. Obviously, they were grossly undervalued. Against FSU, the Rams were lined up in a lower range as a 4½-point dog and won again. The party is over, as the Rams are no longer undervalued. That doesn’t mean they’re overvalued here, as they can win this game, it just means that it’s not the right time to play them. Butler defence has proven throughout this tourney that its stellar defensive play can limit its opposition’s best player and they will likely succeed in this one. VCU relies heavily on guard Joey Rodriguez doing his thing. The Rams like to create havoc with its offensive pressure, while Butler looks to create a half-court game. VCU has had trouble with teams that force them into the half-court game. The only way to "explain" VCU’s upset over Kansas is that VCU played better. VCU did not cause Kansas to miss 13 free throws and miss so many open field goal attempts. The Rams have also been extremely successful from 3-pt land. Butler’s solid defensive play and its experience ends this year’s Cinderella story. Play: Butler –2½. Play: Butler –2½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2)


SPORTS WAGERS

Dallas +139 over LOS ANGELES

4:00 PM EST. This is the Stars last chance of making the playoffs. A loss here and they can start booking tee-off times, as they sit five points behind Chicago with a game in hand. This is that game in hand and they can get to within three with a win. The Stars are in a funk at the worst time and they’re also coming off a 6-0 loss at San Jose. However, that loss came one game after they outshot Phoenix 45-27 and lost 2-1 so frustration was a factor. The Kings meanwhile, don’t look so good since losing Anze Kopitar and Justin Williams. Since losing that pair the Kings are 1-1 but scores just twice on Edmonton and just one on Vancouver. L.A. has labored all year offensively and one also has to wonder about its state of mind heading into the playoffs. It absolutely puts a damper on things, as Kopitar is the Kings most important player. Furthermore, the Stars and Kings always play tight games and it’s always a toss-up as to who will win. The last six games have been split 3-3 and with a take-back like this against a weaker Kings club, the Stars are very live. Play: Dallas +139 (Risking 2 units).


Toronto -½ +149 over OTTAWA

The Leafs are on the road here but it’s not going to have the feel of a road game, as there’s likely to be just as many Leaf fans in the joint as Sens fans. More importantly, however, is the way the Leafs are playing. In the second half of the season they have the NHL’s fifth best record and recently have two wins over the Bruins and scored nine goals in the process. Incidentally, 10 of the Leafs last 11 goals have come from 10 different players. The Maple Leafs have a swagger about them that hasn’t been seen in Toronto for a very long time and they have a goaltender that instills nothing but more confidence. The Leafs are not out of it yet and they’re not going down without a fight. They’ll be ready again tonight and the Sens are certainly beatable. The Sens are without its two best rearguards in Erik Karlsson and Sergei Gonchar. They’re coming off a 4-1 win over the offensively challenged Panthers in a game they were badly outplayed in and outshot in by a count of 38-23. Prior to that they had dropped two straight and allowed five goals against in both games. Yeah, Ottawa would love to knock the Leafs out of it but they don’t have the personnel and the Leafs are too determined right now to lose to this inferior host. Play: Toronto -½ +149 (Risking 2 units).


SPORTS WAGERS

Pittsburgh +173 over CHICAGO

Over the past three seasons Carlos Zambrano has fared worse at Wrigley Field than on the road and his numbers have been on a steady decline every year. Zambrano is just not good anymore and there’s plenty of proof. A look at Zambrano's xERA (expected ERA) the last four years and you will see a very mediocre pitcher and a disturbing downward trend. It went from 4.41 in 2007 to 4.55 in ’08 to 4.57 in ’09 and last year his xERA was 4.89. Zambrano used to be very adept at keeping runners off the bases, used to being the operative words. You want to lay big juice on a guy with a 1.50 WHIP over the last couple of years? Carlos Zambrano is mediocre and he isn't likely to get better. It's hard to believe that Carlos Zambrano is just 29 years old, but we need look no further than the IP column to know that he is an old 29. Remember: this is the same guy getting paid like a #1 starter who got relegated to middle relief duties last season. His spring stats don’t instill optimism either, as he walked 11, struck out 12 and surrendered 24 hits in 22.2 frames. Paul Maholm is a shoo-in for lots of IP and probably another inconsistent season. Maholm’s saving grace is that he does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground. He’s occasionally dominant and occasionally disastrous with a whole lot of “meh” in-between. In fact, that pretty much sums up Maholm’s career – he’s consistent, but unspectacular. His strong groundball tendency could lead to success in any game and certainly he and the Bucs are very worthy of a bet against Zambrano and the Cubbies. Cubs picked up where they left off last season with a horrible showing in the opener and there’s nothing that suggests today will be different. Big overlay. Play: Pittsburgh +173 (Risking 2 units).


Boston +107 over TEXAS

The bottom line here is that you always have to consider the Red Sox when they’re taking back a tag. We might also be backing a very undervalued John Lackey. Lackey ranked as one of the AL's most obvious disappointments in 2010, as he finished with a 4.00+ ERA for the first time since 2004. Lackey switched teams entering last season after spending his entire career prior to 2010 with one organization. Whether the change in venue to a home ballpark that is less advantageous to pitchers, a move to an unfamiliar setting, or whether there may have been a first-half minor injury that was concealed, there was something clearly different during last season's first half. His return to form in the second half is reassuring as we look toward 2011. Lackey’s skills returned in second half and he’s coming off a very decent spring in which his ERA was 3.43 in 21 IP. He also walked just three batters in the spring. Lackey is somewhat of a forgotten man but could be a big sleeper to start the year. While Lackey was a big disappointment in 2010, the performance of Colby Lewis was arguably one of the year's biggest surprises, especially given his spotty MLB past. Another concern regarding Lewis is his groundball/fly-ball profile, which was 37%/46% and this park is not kind to fly-ball pitchers. In any case, the Red Sox lineup is so lethal that they’re always worth a bet at a price, as surely they can win this game. Play: Boston +107 (Risking 2 units).


CLEVELAND +128 over Chicago

Carlos Carrasco quietly showed signs last year that he might be ready to emerge. He was called up late in the year and posted some great skills including a 57% groundball rate and a 97 BPV (for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page). He already showed a high dominance and command profile in parts of three seasons in Triple-A. It’s also worth noting that Carrasco has faced current South Side hitters 32 times and all they have is five hits against him for a BA of .132. By contrast, Indian hitters have 34 hits in 115 AB’s against Edwin Jackson for a BA of .296. Jackson is also coming off a rough spring in which he allowed 29 hits and 12 ER in 17.1 frames for an ERA of 6.23. The White Sox pen got whacked yesterday, nearly blowing a 14-0 lead and that’s not a good way to start a season. Jackson is streaky, he always has been and he’s definitely worth keeping an eye on because of some very nice umbers upon his return to the AL last season. However, this is about investing in Carlos Carrasco, who undoubtedly is going to win more games for the Tribe this season than any of their other starters. Play: Cleveland +128 (Risking 2 units).

 

[jdsabre]

Pro Computer Gambler 04-02 Baseball

#920 Cleveland Indians +118
#913 Milwaukee Brewers +107
#923 Seattle Mariners +163
#903 Pittsburgh Pirates +174

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Prediction Machine Bonus Play

Kentucky/UConn under 140 53.8%

 

[brewerfan003]

2-Minute Warning Saturday's Play 10 DIME CONSENSUS CLUB



VCU



205-154-5 roll - all releases



117-80-4 basketball roll past two years




27-13 in college football last season

 

[brewerfan003]

Al DeMarco Saturday's Action
10 Dime play on Kentucky as the favordte against Connecticut in Final Four action in the Big Dance Tournamhent in Houston. As I release this selectron at 2:45 AM Pacific, the Wildcats are currently -2 in Las Vegas and offshore. This is another one of those rare games where it's prudent to buy down the 1/2 point on Kentucky if you have the Wildcats at -1 1/2, -2, -2 1/2 or even -3. As I've explained a few other times this week where I've recommended buying the insurance, when the team you're going against has a dymanic shooter like Kemba Walker, and is a strong three-point shooting squad, it's worth laying -120 vs. -110 to get that extra half point down so you don't lose - or push - in a game decided by a bucket.





Off the top of my head, I find it hard to believe any team has produced in payback games like Kentucky has this season. In the regular season they sought and got revenge against Georgia, Vandy and Florida - and you remember they beat the hell out of the Gators in the third go-round in the SEC title game. Speaking of the SEC Tournament, they extracted a pound of flesh against Ole Miss and Alabama. And here in the Big Dance, they've done the same versus West Virginia and North Carolina. That's a 7-0 record in payback and the revenge games have one thing in common: they were played from the last week of January forward, signifying the maturation of a Kentucky lineup that features three freshmdn among its top players. And that doesn't include the development of center Josh Harrellson, whose become a real force down the homestretch and especially in the Dance.




You know the deal: Kentucky was crushed by Connecticut 84-67 at the Maui Invitational in the season's fifth game. And note that two games later the Wildcats lost at North Carolina.




Kemba Walker was superb for the Huskies in the first meeting, scoring 29 points to key a U.Conn attack that shot 58% from the field. By comparison, Kentucky's Brandon Knight missed 12 of 15 field goals, Doran Lamb scored five points and Harrehllson was held scoreless in 25 minutes.




Fast forward time for Kentucky. Knight, averaging 17.3 points on the season, is only shooting 35% from the field in the Tournament, but he put daggers in the upset bids of Princeton and Ohio State and nailed five three's versus UNC. Lamb averaged 12.3 points this year. Harrellson has been a one-man inside force for the Wildcats, averaging 15 points and 8.8 rebounds in the Dance on 61% shooting, more than holding his own against OSU's Jared Sullinger and UNC's Ty Zeller.




What has changed for Connecticut since the first meeting? Perhaps Walker is even better? What can you say about a guy averaging 26.8 points, 5.3 rebound and 6.8 assists in the Big Dance after carrying his Huskies to five wins in five days to capture the Big East Tournament. He's gotten tremendous support from Jeremy Lamb; the freshman swingman has averaged 18.3 points on 59% shooting as U.Conn has advancrd to the Final Four. And those nine games in 19 days for the Huskies? Lamb scored in double figures in each of them.




Here's one key negative, however, for U.Conn. In the Maui Invitational clash 6-9 center Alex Oriakhi had the game of his career with 18 points and 11 rebounds. But for the season he averaged just a shade under 10 points. So the question is whether Kentucky's Terrence Jones, who scored 24 points in 27 foul-plagued minutes, can get support from his peers and stay in the game. I think he does as Harrellson will certainly do better than being held scoreless in 25 minutes as he was in the first meeting. Same goes for Knight, who won't shoot 3-for-15. And even if Walker has his usual big game, it's hard to imagine the Huskies shooting 58% from the field against a more seasoned Kentucky team that's won 10 in a row with eight of those victories coming outside of Lexington.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Richie Carrera
COLORADO -155 over Arizona 10 Dimes (Bet 15.5 to win 10)


Milwaukee +105 over CINCINNATI 10 Dimes (Bet 10 to win 10.5)


San Francisco -105 over LOS ANGELES 5 Dimes (5.25 to win 5)

We are backing DeLaRosa, Marcum and Cain today. I also have to be honest with you and say that I resisted the urge to take Houston and Wandy at +225. If I wasn't so worried that it would be close late in the game and the prospect of seeing Brandon Lyon again, I may have pulled the trigger. None-the-less we will get to see strikeout machine Jorge De La Rosa against a team that strikes out a ton (Even with the departure of Mark Reynolds and his 200+ Ks a year) Colorado has better team speed and a more dynamic overall offense. (By the way, over the course of this major league season, you will get team and player breakdowns mixed in with game analysis) I love Dexter Fowler at the top of this line-up... I really think he is overdue to breakout. Watch for him to continue to develop into a quality leadoff man, giving you better at bats even if the statline isn't all that impressive.

Milwaukee and Marcum at +105 looks like a gift to me, even if he has to face a potent Cincinnati offense. Marcum will benefit from switching leagues, just like many before him. He faced Yankees and Rays lineup last year that were every bit as good as the one he will pitch against today. The Brewers also have a one through eight that I wouldn't sleep on, featuring sluggers Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks and Casey McGeehee. Bottom Line: 2 very good teams- I'll stick with the better pitcher.

San Fran has been close the last 2 games.. I think they steal one on the road against division rival LA behind Matt Cain and hopefully, better defensive play.

 

[brewerfan003]

Anthony Redd Saturday's Card 40 Dime release on Connecticut as the underdog agadnst Kentucky. As this play is releahsed at 6 am Pacific, the Huskies are currently getring between 2 to 2 1/2 points depending on where you shop.

 

[brewerfan003]

Brett Atkins Saturday Tonight, I'm coming strong with a 50 Dime Big Dance Semifinal Sure Thing on the VCU Rams as they are catdhing points against Butler. As I releahse this play at 10:45 p.m. PST on Friday, VCU is a 2 1/2-point underdog both here in Vegas and ofrshore.



ANALYSIS



Both of these teams has battled its way to the national semifinals and now both prohibitive underdogs have to face off against each other. It does guarantde one of them will be in Monday’s title game, and that one is going to be VCU. The Rams were told they didn’t belong and were forced to play in a First Four game. Well they won that one and have been winning ever since. They’ve hit 44 perchent of their three-pointers in the tourney and in three of the games they hit 12 long-range bombs. Their big men are going to cause trouble for Butler tonight and they will get star center Matt Howard in foul trouble when he has to go outside and defend VCU’s Jamie Skeen as he can go out and hit the three or go inside and post up. That is a matchup that has a big advanrtage for the Rams. VCU is on ATS runs of 6-0 in non-conference play and 9-0 in the tourney, all as an underdog. They are ‘dogs again and I’m going to grab the points with them, but I expect them to win this one and head to Monday’s title tilt.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Chang


Connecticut Huskies +2.5 over Kentucky Wildcats, 10 dimes
I like how this matchup is shaping up for Jim Calhoun and the Huskies. While both coaches are capable of breaking down the opposition with effective gameplanning, I believe Calhoun has the better personnel with which to work. First of all, Connecticut is a noticeably deeper team. Kentucky primarily gets their contributions from only 6 players, while UConn can go 7, 8, or maybe even 9 deep when needed. This doesn't bode well for Kentucky if anyone gets into foul trouble early in the contest. The inside threat for the Wildcats consists of Forward Josh Harrellson, but with defensive rock Alex Oriahki guarding the paint (and with help from the solid Charles Okwandu,) I can't see Harrellson having much of an impact. Earlier in the season at the Maui Invitational, these two teams faced eachother, and Kemba Walker had a field day. While this was obviously a whole season ago, and much has changed for both teams, the Wildcats can't focus on just shutting down Walker and expecting the rest to fall into place. More deadly scoring threats have emerged for Calhoun's squad. The most notable being sharpshooters Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier. The final reason as to why I am backing the Huskies is that this could very well be Jim Calhoun's last season. Love him or hate him, he knows how to motivate his players and to gameplan for victory. I see this as being a huge motivational factor for his team, and I predict that it will be this extra energy that propels Connecticut to the championship game. Let's grab these 2 and a half and enjoy a great game!

CHICAGO BULLS -14.5 over Toronto Raptors, 10 dimes
I know this is a lot of chalk to eat, but Chicago has been dominating teams at home all year, and covering large numbers like this one hasn't been a problem for them. The Raptors' starting point guard, Jose Calderon, is out, and that's a big negative for them because now they'll have to start the inexperience Jerryd Bayless. Chicago is playing with purpose at this point in the season because they have a great shot at the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Toronto has lost 5 straight games, and it should be six after the Bulls put a whipping on 'em today at the United Center. Lay the wood.

 

[brewerfan003]

Chuck O'Brien Saturday's Selection

Your 75 Dime Final Four winder is BUTLER on the money-line over VCU. Again, please note that this is a money-line play, so we’re not laying the points. As I go live with this selhection, the consensus money-line odds on Butler are -145, though I encorrage you to do your research and see if you can find a lower number.



BREAKDOWN: I’m quite sure those who back VCU today will start their argument with the fact that the Rams won five games to get the Final Four (the other teams won four), and they not only beat teams from the Pac-10 (USC), Big East (Georgetown), Big Ten (Purdue), ACC (Florida State) and Big 12 (Kansas), but they crushed four of those teams by double digits (the only exception was a 72-71 overtime win over Florida State; the other four victories were by an average of 14.8 ppg. Then they’ll point to the fact that Butler’s four Big Dance wins were by a total of 13 points, including three wins over Old Dominion (60-58), Pitt (71-70) and Florida (74-71) that weren’t secured until the final possession. All of that is valid. Now here’s my counterargument: Butler’s ability to find a way to win close games is much more impressive to me than VCU’s bevy of blowouts.



Seriously, the Bulldogs have a knack for coming up big when the pressure is at its zenith, and this goes back to last year’s run to the championship game, when they beat Murray State by two, Syracuse by four, Kansas State by seven and Michigan State by two before losing to Duke by two when a half-court, game-winning shot at the horn was off by about an inch. Well, I think we’re headed for another close game today, and if I’m right, I certainly like Butler’s chances to come through in crunch time more than I do VCU, which is just 3-3 in its last six games decided by five points or less.



I also like Butler’s chances to do what no opponent of VCU’s has done in this tournament, and that’s defend the perimeter. The Rams are shooting a scorching 43.8% from three-point range (which is identical to their overall field-goal percentage in the tournament). Well, going back to the 59-44 Horizon League championship game win over Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Butler has held its last five opponents to just 28.7% from beyond the arc (not to mention 59.4 ppg). For the season, the Bulldogs allow just 32.4% shooting on three-pointers.



Finally, I know a lot of people breaking down this matchup don’t believe Final Four experience matters much, but I certainly don’t share that opinion. I think Butler’s run to the title game last year will be a huge advantage for the Bulldogs. So, too, will the five days the Bulldogs have had to get ready for this game (coach Brad Stevens has lost just once the last two years when having that much prep time). Bottom line: I love Butler’s inside-outside combination of Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack, I love Stevens as both a tactician and a calming influence on his players, I love Butler’s rebounding prowess, I love the Bulldogs’ tournament pedigree (9-1 SU and ATS the last two years; 17-5 ATS last 22 tourney games), and I love that they come into this game with the longest winning streak in the country (13 in a row).



They’ll run that winning streak to 14 by frustrating VCU’s shooters, by playing at a slow, methodical pace and by making free throws down the stretch. It won’t be easy (it never is with Butler), but the Bulldogs (15-2 ATS last 17 neutral-site games) pull this one out 67-62.

 

[brewerfan003]

Craig Davis Saturday's Play... 100 Dime seledtion on Kentucky on the MONEYLINE agaihnst Connecticut in Final Four action. As I release this play at 7:15 AM Eastern, Kentucky is currently -135 to -140 on the Moneyline depending on where you shop in Vegas or offshore.



Much like my Packers Moneyline play in the Super Bowl, I'm not taking any chances on getting beat by a hook or a late half-court heave when I know Kentucky is the right side of this game versus the Huskies.




This line could fluctuate anywhere from -2 to -3 today, so get it as early as you can to save a little juice when wagerdng. Obviously we'd rather have the money line on -2 rather than -3, but it honestly shouldn't matter because Kentucky is the right side of this game for several reasons... but the #1 reason the Wildcats are going to win this game is DEFENSE.




You can have your Butlers and your Richmonds all you want... when it comes to "in your face" man-to-man defense, I'll take Kentucky all day. What team do you know can hold Ohio State to 60 points and then hold North Carolina (two of the highest scoring teams in the nation) to just 69 points in back-to-back games?




What team do you know that can not only play this solid man-to-man defense against two offensive powerhouses, not only limiting each team well below their average but NOT getting in foul trouble? Remember, the Wildcats aren't very deep and require a LOT of their top six or seven guys, but they've been doing just fine with this system and I don't see it stopping tonight.

Defensively the Wildcats have held Princeton to 57 points, West Virginia to 63, OSU to 60, and North Carolina to 69 in this tournament. Before that the 'Cats held Ole Miss, Alabama and Florida to 66, 58, and 54 points, respectively. To wind down the regular season, Kentucky allowed 58 points at Tennessee, 66 points to Vandy, and 68 points to Florida (all wins). You have to go back to February 23 AT Arkansas when you can find the last time the 'Cats allowed anything in the 70s (77), and the only reason the Hogs were able to score 77 is because the game went into overtime. Before that game Kentucky allowed just 59 to South Carolina.




You get my point... this defense is the best defense in the country and will prove it again tonight as they will do whatever they can to get in Kemba Walker's grill and NOT let him have one of those nights. And that's the thing about UConn --- if they don't get early producthion from Walker, they panic. It hasn't happened in quite some time, and that's why they've been on this tremendous winning streak, but if there's any chance for it to happen it would be tonight against Brandon Knight and Kentucky.




The Wildcats don't have one star like the Huskies, and at any time one or more of them can get hot. I actually expect Terrence Jones to get hot today for two reasons. First off, he's overdue. He had a great regular season but hasn't put it together yet in this tournament. Secondly, there's no one on the UConn roster that can stop him... period.




Kentucky also showed me something in that Ohio State game that I wasn't really aware of... they take really smart three-point shots and make a solid percentage of them. The 'Cats shoot 40% for the season from downtown and have hit 37% from out there in neutral site games. They don't force it, they wait till it opens up, and they hit it. Nothing against UConn because they clearly have some players who can step out and hit that shot... but they aren't in Kentucky's class in that aspect.




Yes, I realize UConn dumped on Kentucky when these two met in Maui early in the season (84-67), but I also know North Carolina did the same thing to Kentucky in the early going and look what haprened last weekend. In the previous meeting, Terrence Jones was the only Wildcat who showed up, scoring 24 of his team's 67 points. Brandon Knight, a freshman, did nothing. Josh Harrelson, who was still trying to figure out his role on this team, took just one shot in 25 minutes. He was a complete non-factor... which I can guarantee won't happen tonight.




Let's also not forget in that matchup... Kentucky shot well below 40% from the field and downtown while UConn shot nearly 60% from the field and from three-point land. Again, that won't happen tonight.




The Wildcats are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. teams from the Big East, 3-0-1 ATS in their last four Saturday games, 7-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games, 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Big Dance games as a favorite.




Like I said, I'm not taking any chances with a bullcrap point spread when I can just risk a little more and play the money line... to ensure a Kentucky win gives us a win.