JOhn Chang
DALLAS MAVERICKS -5 over Portland Trail Blazers, 10 dimes
Everyone seems to be jumping on the Blazers' bandwagon, and at first glance, they do seem like a sexy pick to pull a first round upset. But I'm not buying into the hype. Despite the fact that Portland has some veterans leading their squad, the disparity in playoff experience is what I'm putting stock in. Dallas has been there before, and with a history of disappointing performances in the playoffs, I believe this is the year when they right the ship. They have an elite, top tier scoring machine in Dirk Nowitzki. They have reliable bigmen inside with Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood. They have a battle-tested, playmaking point guard in Jason Kidd. They have solid role-players and an energizing bench. They score more points than Portland, and their defense is just as good. And most important in this situation: They are the home team. The home team has won in all 4 of the matchups between these clubs this season, and I think the inexperience of Portland's younger players will show through with some first game jitters tonight. Dallas is entering the postseason on a nice 4-0 SU and ATS streak, and I fully expect them to come out with some serious intensity tonight. Take the home chalk here.
ORLANDO MAGIC -8.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 10 dimes
I'm going to continue with our theme of taking the home team today with this matchup in Orlando. The Hawks limped their way into these playoffs, losing 6 in a row SU and 5 straight ATS. That's not the kind of momentum you want to carry with you into your first round matchup, especially when that matchup is against the Magic. Orlando turns up the heat come playoff time; it happens every year it seems. Stan Van Gundy knows how to motivate his team this time of the year, and that's why they perennially cruise through the first round. This team has covered the number in 8 out of its last 10 in the playoffs as a favorite, and I expect them to put the hurtin' on the Hawks tonight. The Magic have entered the playoffs with some solid momentum. They've won 4 out of their last 5 SU, and taken 4 in a row ATS. They outclass Atlanta on offense, defense, and especially on the boards. Look for the Magic to make a statement at home.
COLORADO ROCKIES (-175, list both pitchers) over Chicago Cubs, 5 dimes
CLEVELAND INDIANS/Baltimore Orioles under 8 (-110), 5 dimes