The Duke's Sports
Dallas (-5) for 1.5 Units
The Mavericks are notorious for their 1st round debacles and Portland has given Dallas trouble this year. Consequently, that awareness had HC Carlisle keeping his men playing at a high level down the stretch of the season (4-0 ATS run). The Mavericks are 12-4-1 ATS off a SU win of 10+ and 5-0 ATS as a home favorite in this range. We can't trust the 'Blazers at 1-4 ATS in this round and just 2-7-1 ATS on Saturdays. We'll look for the Mavericks to get back their earlier season magic when they went on a blistering tear.
Dallas (-5) for 1.5 Units
The Mavericks are notorious for their 1st round debacles and Portland has given Dallas trouble this year. Consequently, that awareness had HC Carlisle keeping his men playing at a high level down the stretch of the season (4-0 ATS run). The Mavericks are 12-4-1 ATS off a SU win of 10+ and 5-0 ATS as a home favorite in this range. We can't trust the 'Blazers at 1-4 ATS in this round and just 2-7-1 ATS on Saturdays. We'll look for the Mavericks to get back their earlier season magic when they went on a blistering tear.
Sean Higgs
4* Brewers -141
Taking Gallardo and the Brewers here. Coming back here on the BrewCrew as we tie it up in the 9th and then lose on a couple errors and bad fielding in the 10th. Personally, I like to play on teams after they commit 3 or more errors in a game. Here, Milwaukee only booted what would be the winning the run, so I feel after a scolding by coach, they will be a bit crisp in the field. Add in we a solid arm on the hill, backed with some powerful bats, and we should get back in the win column today. Marquis is just 4-9 with a 4.95 ERA in his career vs Brewers. Gallardo 2-0 with a 3.00 vs Nats. Gallardo gave up 4 earned in 5 innings his last trip out, which was on the heels of a CG 2 hit shutout. I look for a game more in between his SO and first start where he went 6 and gave up 2. I can see 6-7 innings with 2-3 runs allowed. Should be win as the Brewers bats should hit Marquis who has been effective this season. That being said, Brewers win this one, 6-3.
4* Seattle Mariners -141
Taking King Felix and the Mariners here. Taking a favorite today. This is close to my max as favorites go. But I believe we are getting good value here. I am throwing out the M's and Hernandez's recent trends vs KC. Right off the bat, we get Felix off one of the worse outings of his career. Mariners bats got him a ND, but in was a game that he was flat out awful. 6 innings 12 hits 7 earned. I expect a more typical line from Felix this afternoon, more like 8 innings 10Ks 4 hits 0-1 runs. For KC, Sean O'Sullivan really hasn't done anything this year. Let me see 4 innings, 7 hits, 5 earned a walk, a strikeout and a homer. KC held on to a 6-5 win last night as Seattle struck for 3 runs in the 9th. More importantly for the M's, if, and I don't think it will matter here with Felix on the hill, they fave Soria, a big time closer, the go in knowing they did get a run off him the night before, so he is not unhittable.
4* White Sox -1.5
Taking Floyd and the Sox here. We faded Chatwood in his first start and cashed with the Indians as a nice dog. Here we will do the same, but lay the runs with the Sox bats. At 160, this would be about as far as I would lay with a favorite. But, taking back the +123 is a solid option. White Sox have experienced hitters who should wait out the youngster and make him work. Those extra pitches will lead to walks and more men on base. Floyds last 2 starts at Angels at home have been solid going 15 innings, giving up 2 earned (3total) 11 hits and 10Ks. Floyd off a 4 hit gem where he got a ND vs Tampa thanks to a leaky bullpen. Off the loss to Weaver last night, things should be a bit easy today vs the rookie.
4* Flyers GL -1.5
Taking the FLYERS here on the GL. Goal Line just keeps money in our pockets. Here we get the Flyers down 0-1 at home. Look for them to bring their 'A' game and even the series up. Now, last year this group was down 0-3 and rallied all the way back vs Boston. I really don't think they want to go down 0-2 at home. They outshot the Sabres in Game 1, and I look for them to break through this afternoon. Sabres happy stealing 1 on the road. Let's take the Flyers to win this one 3-1 and get us that GL money.
4* Under Hawks/Magic 179.5
Going UNDER the total in Orlando. Listen, Hawks covered all 4 meetings vs the Magic this year, winning 3 games outright. They also have a nice revenge factor in their favor dating back to last years playoffs. Why does this matter. Well, they are familiar with each other. 9 of the last 10 games have gone UNDER in the series, including 6 straight. The thing that worries me about the Hawks and why we aren't playing them SU and in the series, is that it looks like they have quit. They ended the year with 6 straight losses, (3 straight unders, 4 of 6 overall). Again, we like the under. Hawks one a top 10 scoring defense team, and rank 26th in offensive scoring. Magic #4 in scoring defense. Orlando one of the best defensive teams in the league. Lets also realize that the Magic best player shots under 60% from the FT line, so he won't be getting those easy points with no time coming off the clock. We are going UNDER in what will be a 90-78 type game.
4* Brewers -141
Taking Gallardo and the Brewers here. Coming back here on the BrewCrew as we tie it up in the 9th and then lose on a couple errors and bad fielding in the 10th. Personally, I like to play on teams after they commit 3 or more errors in a game. Here, Milwaukee only booted what would be the winning the run, so I feel after a scolding by coach, they will be a bit crisp in the field. Add in we a solid arm on the hill, backed with some powerful bats, and we should get back in the win column today. Marquis is just 4-9 with a 4.95 ERA in his career vs Brewers. Gallardo 2-0 with a 3.00 vs Nats. Gallardo gave up 4 earned in 5 innings his last trip out, which was on the heels of a CG 2 hit shutout. I look for a game more in between his SO and first start where he went 6 and gave up 2. I can see 6-7 innings with 2-3 runs allowed. Should be win as the Brewers bats should hit Marquis who has been effective this season. That being said, Brewers win this one, 6-3.
4* Seattle Mariners -141
Taking King Felix and the Mariners here. Taking a favorite today. This is close to my max as favorites go. But I believe we are getting good value here. I am throwing out the M's and Hernandez's recent trends vs KC. Right off the bat, we get Felix off one of the worse outings of his career. Mariners bats got him a ND, but in was a game that he was flat out awful. 6 innings 12 hits 7 earned. I expect a more typical line from Felix this afternoon, more like 8 innings 10Ks 4 hits 0-1 runs. For KC, Sean O'Sullivan really hasn't done anything this year. Let me see 4 innings, 7 hits, 5 earned a walk, a strikeout and a homer. KC held on to a 6-5 win last night as Seattle struck for 3 runs in the 9th. More importantly for the M's, if, and I don't think it will matter here with Felix on the hill, they fave Soria, a big time closer, the go in knowing they did get a run off him the night before, so he is not unhittable.
4* White Sox -1.5
Taking Floyd and the Sox here. We faded Chatwood in his first start and cashed with the Indians as a nice dog. Here we will do the same, but lay the runs with the Sox bats. At 160, this would be about as far as I would lay with a favorite. But, taking back the +123 is a solid option. White Sox have experienced hitters who should wait out the youngster and make him work. Those extra pitches will lead to walks and more men on base. Floyds last 2 starts at Angels at home have been solid going 15 innings, giving up 2 earned (3total) 11 hits and 10Ks. Floyd off a 4 hit gem where he got a ND vs Tampa thanks to a leaky bullpen. Off the loss to Weaver last night, things should be a bit easy today vs the rookie.
4* Flyers GL -1.5
Taking the FLYERS here on the GL. Goal Line just keeps money in our pockets. Here we get the Flyers down 0-1 at home. Look for them to bring their 'A' game and even the series up. Now, last year this group was down 0-3 and rallied all the way back vs Boston. I really don't think they want to go down 0-2 at home. They outshot the Sabres in Game 1, and I look for them to break through this afternoon. Sabres happy stealing 1 on the road. Let's take the Flyers to win this one 3-1 and get us that GL money.
4* Under Hawks/Magic 179.5
Going UNDER the total in Orlando. Listen, Hawks covered all 4 meetings vs the Magic this year, winning 3 games outright. They also have a nice revenge factor in their favor dating back to last years playoffs. Why does this matter. Well, they are familiar with each other. 9 of the last 10 games have gone UNDER in the series, including 6 straight. The thing that worries me about the Hawks and why we aren't playing them SU and in the series, is that it looks like they have quit. They ended the year with 6 straight losses, (3 straight unders, 4 of 6 overall). Again, we like the under. Hawks one a top 10 scoring defense team, and rank 26th in offensive scoring. Magic #4 in scoring defense. Orlando one of the best defensive teams in the league. Lets also realize that the Magic best player shots under 60% from the FT line, so he won't be getting those easy points with no time coming off the clock. We are going UNDER in what will be a 90-78 type game.
SPORTS WAGERS
Phoenix +152 over DETROIT
The Coyotes were aggressive and rock solid in the first period of game one and played their typical forechecking style but could not overcome a couple of shaky goals allowed by Ilya Bryzgalov. The goal that put the Wings ahead 2-1 was the most damaging and seemed to have taken some wind out of the Coyotes’ sails. Still, they played nose to nose with the Red Wings and once again, goaltending is likely going to have a huge impact on the outcome of this one. Bryzgalov is usually reliable and we expect a better game from him here. Jimmy Howard had a very strong game but that does not mean a repeat or that he’s the better goaltender, he just had a better game. What we do know is that Phoenix can play with this team. They proved it all season long, they proved it in last year’s playoffs and it’s not a stretch to suggest that the Coyotes are a better club than last year’s edition while the Wings cannot make the same claim. Detroit has some injury concerns and some liability in its third set of defensemen. The Coyotes have to stick to their game plan, get solid goaltending and they can definitely go home tied 1-1. Play: Phoenix +152 (Risking 2 units).
Buffalo +146 over PHILADELPHIA
The Sabres were not sharp in game one, much like the Lightning in their opener but Buffalo won its game because Ryan Miller was unbeatable. The Sabres generated very little offense and did not test rookie Sergei Bobrovsky at all. We expect that part to change here. With the Sabres up 1-0 and all the pressure on the Flyers and their young goalie, expect Lindy Ruff to devise a plan get a lot more traffic to the net and generate some offense. Philly limped into the playoffs with a rough final three weeks and it carried over into game one. What we have here is a Sabres team with a ton of momentum that was not close to playing their best, up 1-0 against a fragile host with a fragile goaltender. Buffalo won on a subpar effort. We’ve already got the better goaltender and we can expect a much better effort from the Sabres after a subpar offensive performance. Most everything points to the prohibitive dog, including our pocketbooks. Play: Buffalo +146 (Risking 2 units).
Montreal +179 over BOSTON
What can one say about the Canadiens? Here’s a team that constantly gets outplayed and wins. This is the most opportunistic team in the league. They shut out the Bruins 2-0 in game one and you could sense early on that the Bruins were in trouble. Boston could not beat Carey Price and they played like they knew they weren’t going to. Boston was buzzing around the net for long stretches but Montreal does not care. They block shots, they dump it out and they frustrate teams to no end. It seems that if the Habs score first again, the Bruins will be in the same kind of trouble again. Boston comes in as a frustrated team and the fact that they did not score in game one is a big problem. They’ve had trouble sustaining an offense all year long and now they have to deal with a goaltender that is not only outstanding but also one that is their kitchen. The price and goaltender make the Habs an absolute must value playPlay: Montreal +179 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Baltimore +103 over Cleveland
The Indians are off to a great 9-4 start that included a 7-0 run. They’re scoring runs while both the bullpen and starting pitching has been sharp. The Indians’ Josh Tomlin is off to a great 2-0 start with a 2.63 ERA and that hot start provides us with a great opportunity here to cash in because Tomlin is not a 2.63 ERA pitcher. He went 6-4 with a 4.56 ERA in 73 IP for the Tribe last year. Righties whacked him to the tune of a .881 OPS, far too big of a number. His stats also provided a lofty groundball/fly-ball ratio of 28%/50%. These are not the contrarian stats of a winning pitcher or even an average one. Those kinds of numbers eventually become exposed. Whether it is today or not, Tomlin does not warrant the chalk’s role over the superior Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie’s 1-1 record and 0.64 ERA thus far is not to be believed either but he did face the Rangers in one of those games and held them in check. Last year he went through a stretch in which he allowed only seven earned runs over six consecutive starts. Guthrie is 31 and he’s durable, as he has averaged 30 games started and increased his IP each season during that time. Much prefer Baltimore’s solid starter to Cleveland’s imposter. Play: Baltimore +103 (Risking 2 units).
Texas +110 over N.Y. YANKEES
Props to Freddy Garcia for coming back from three straight years of injury to post a near full season at age 34. Garcia is now a soft-tosser who gives up too many HR to be anything more than an innings-eater and this is not the team nor the stadium that you want to be serving up hangers over the plate against. Due to various off days and rain delays, the Yankees have yet to use their fifth starter but are forced to do so today. In a three-year stretch between ’07-’09, Garcia threw less than 150 innings combined. He was hit hard last season as a member of the White Sox with an ERA close to 5.00 in 157 frames. The Yankees rotation is a mess. Phil Hughes has a dead arm. A.J. Burnett can’t get anyone out. Ivan Nova is a minor-league pitcher and now they’ve slotted in Bartolo Colon. Garcia is a part of that mess. He has no value whatsoever as the chalk as he’s a Band-Aid on a gunshot wound. Derek Holland went 3-4 with a 4.08 ERA in 57 IP at Texas last year. His health is a consideration after missing June/July last year with knee and rotator cuff issues and he did show some rust in 2H, but he did have K/9, hr/9 gains all year and remains a promising work-in-progress. Holland has also had a decent start to the year with a 2.25 ERA after allowing just 12 hits and three ER in 12 innings while striking out 11 and walking three. The Yanks wanted revenge badly yesterday against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last October. They didn’t get it and they’re likely not going to get it here either. Play: Texas +110. Play: Texas +110 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago/COLORADO over 10 +102
The most extreme hitters' park in baseball thanks to its high altitude, Coors Field remains an offensive boon even since the introduction of humidors to keep baseballs from drying out. The park has spacious dimensions that should rob some homers but all that green also makes for easy doubles and triples. No park in baseball has been as hitter-friendly in modern times. Enter Casey Coleman and Jason Hammel. Hammel has made two starts this season and in 11 innings he’s walked four and struck out five. That tells us the ball will be in play today and when you consider that current Cub hitters are batting .366 against Hammel his chances for a good game are slim. Despite being 1-0 this season, Hammel has not looked sharp at all against the Dodgers or Mets. Casey Coleman went 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA in 57 innings last season for the Cubbies. A helpful groundball% punched his ticket to the show, but that GB level isn't elite enough to cover for his intolerable command of the strike zone and very low strikeout rate. Coleman just goes out there and waits for his fielders to make plays and that’s a tough way to survive at this venue or any venue for that matter. All signs point to a four-hour game. Play: Chicago/Colorado over 10 +102 (Risking 2 units).
Phoenix +152 over DETROIT
The Coyotes were aggressive and rock solid in the first period of game one and played their typical forechecking style but could not overcome a couple of shaky goals allowed by Ilya Bryzgalov. The goal that put the Wings ahead 2-1 was the most damaging and seemed to have taken some wind out of the Coyotes’ sails. Still, they played nose to nose with the Red Wings and once again, goaltending is likely going to have a huge impact on the outcome of this one. Bryzgalov is usually reliable and we expect a better game from him here. Jimmy Howard had a very strong game but that does not mean a repeat or that he’s the better goaltender, he just had a better game. What we do know is that Phoenix can play with this team. They proved it all season long, they proved it in last year’s playoffs and it’s not a stretch to suggest that the Coyotes are a better club than last year’s edition while the Wings cannot make the same claim. Detroit has some injury concerns and some liability in its third set of defensemen. The Coyotes have to stick to their game plan, get solid goaltending and they can definitely go home tied 1-1. Play: Phoenix +152 (Risking 2 units).
Buffalo +146 over PHILADELPHIA
The Sabres were not sharp in game one, much like the Lightning in their opener but Buffalo won its game because Ryan Miller was unbeatable. The Sabres generated very little offense and did not test rookie Sergei Bobrovsky at all. We expect that part to change here. With the Sabres up 1-0 and all the pressure on the Flyers and their young goalie, expect Lindy Ruff to devise a plan get a lot more traffic to the net and generate some offense. Philly limped into the playoffs with a rough final three weeks and it carried over into game one. What we have here is a Sabres team with a ton of momentum that was not close to playing their best, up 1-0 against a fragile host with a fragile goaltender. Buffalo won on a subpar effort. We’ve already got the better goaltender and we can expect a much better effort from the Sabres after a subpar offensive performance. Most everything points to the prohibitive dog, including our pocketbooks. Play: Buffalo +146 (Risking 2 units).
Montreal +179 over BOSTON
What can one say about the Canadiens? Here’s a team that constantly gets outplayed and wins. This is the most opportunistic team in the league. They shut out the Bruins 2-0 in game one and you could sense early on that the Bruins were in trouble. Boston could not beat Carey Price and they played like they knew they weren’t going to. Boston was buzzing around the net for long stretches but Montreal does not care. They block shots, they dump it out and they frustrate teams to no end. It seems that if the Habs score first again, the Bruins will be in the same kind of trouble again. Boston comes in as a frustrated team and the fact that they did not score in game one is a big problem. They’ve had trouble sustaining an offense all year long and now they have to deal with a goaltender that is not only outstanding but also one that is their kitchen. The price and goaltender make the Habs an absolute must value playPlay: Montreal +179 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Baltimore +103 over Cleveland
The Indians are off to a great 9-4 start that included a 7-0 run. They’re scoring runs while both the bullpen and starting pitching has been sharp. The Indians’ Josh Tomlin is off to a great 2-0 start with a 2.63 ERA and that hot start provides us with a great opportunity here to cash in because Tomlin is not a 2.63 ERA pitcher. He went 6-4 with a 4.56 ERA in 73 IP for the Tribe last year. Righties whacked him to the tune of a .881 OPS, far too big of a number. His stats also provided a lofty groundball/fly-ball ratio of 28%/50%. These are not the contrarian stats of a winning pitcher or even an average one. Those kinds of numbers eventually become exposed. Whether it is today or not, Tomlin does not warrant the chalk’s role over the superior Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie’s 1-1 record and 0.64 ERA thus far is not to be believed either but he did face the Rangers in one of those games and held them in check. Last year he went through a stretch in which he allowed only seven earned runs over six consecutive starts. Guthrie is 31 and he’s durable, as he has averaged 30 games started and increased his IP each season during that time. Much prefer Baltimore’s solid starter to Cleveland’s imposter. Play: Baltimore +103 (Risking 2 units).
Texas +110 over N.Y. YANKEES
Props to Freddy Garcia for coming back from three straight years of injury to post a near full season at age 34. Garcia is now a soft-tosser who gives up too many HR to be anything more than an innings-eater and this is not the team nor the stadium that you want to be serving up hangers over the plate against. Due to various off days and rain delays, the Yankees have yet to use their fifth starter but are forced to do so today. In a three-year stretch between ’07-’09, Garcia threw less than 150 innings combined. He was hit hard last season as a member of the White Sox with an ERA close to 5.00 in 157 frames. The Yankees rotation is a mess. Phil Hughes has a dead arm. A.J. Burnett can’t get anyone out. Ivan Nova is a minor-league pitcher and now they’ve slotted in Bartolo Colon. Garcia is a part of that mess. He has no value whatsoever as the chalk as he’s a Band-Aid on a gunshot wound. Derek Holland went 3-4 with a 4.08 ERA in 57 IP at Texas last year. His health is a consideration after missing June/July last year with knee and rotator cuff issues and he did show some rust in 2H, but he did have K/9, hr/9 gains all year and remains a promising work-in-progress. Holland has also had a decent start to the year with a 2.25 ERA after allowing just 12 hits and three ER in 12 innings while striking out 11 and walking three. The Yanks wanted revenge badly yesterday against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last October. They didn’t get it and they’re likely not going to get it here either. Play: Texas +110. Play: Texas +110 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago/COLORADO over 10 +102
The most extreme hitters' park in baseball thanks to its high altitude, Coors Field remains an offensive boon even since the introduction of humidors to keep baseballs from drying out. The park has spacious dimensions that should rob some homers but all that green also makes for easy doubles and triples. No park in baseball has been as hitter-friendly in modern times. Enter Casey Coleman and Jason Hammel. Hammel has made two starts this season and in 11 innings he’s walked four and struck out five. That tells us the ball will be in play today and when you consider that current Cub hitters are batting .366 against Hammel his chances for a good game are slim. Despite being 1-0 this season, Hammel has not looked sharp at all against the Dodgers or Mets. Casey Coleman went 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA in 57 innings last season for the Cubbies. A helpful groundball% punched his ticket to the show, but that GB level isn't elite enough to cover for his intolerable command of the strike zone and very low strikeout rate. Coleman just goes out there and waits for his fielders to make plays and that’s a tough way to survive at this venue or any venue for that matter. All signs point to a four-hour game. Play: Chicago/Colorado over 10 +102 (Risking 2 units).
