We shall allow others to defend or mock the NBA zigzag theory ad nausea. For the few not familiar, it basically says bet a playoff team off a straight up loss. However, we will list which playoff teams are best against the spread off straight up wins and straight up losses in 2010-11.
The top teams to bet on off a straight up loss:Team ATS Record Margin of cover
Chicago 14-5-1 +6.1
Boston 16-10 +2.6
Philadelphia 24-15-1 +4.1
Denver 18-13 +1.6
Now to the best teams to bet against off a straight up loss:Team ATS Record Margin of cover
Miami 7-16-1 -5.4
Dallas 9-16 -1.8
LA Lakers 10-15 -4.4
Here are the best teams against the spread to bet on off a straight up win:Team ATS Record Margin of cover
Miami 33-24 +2.9
Denver 25-21-4 +2.6
Perhaps, not surprising, the best teams to fade off a win failed to make the playoffs (Washington, Houston, Sacramento, Utah), but these are the best postseason teams to bet against when coming off a straight up victory:Team ATS Record Margin of cover
Indiana 15-21-1 -2.6
Atlanta 19-25 -2.3
“Renamed “sweat meter” in Chad Millman of ESPN’s column, Margin of Cover (MOC) is similar to scoring margin, but it is measured by how much a team covers or fails to cover the point spread.
Many sports handicappers, including some at OffshoreInsiders.com such as the Canadian Crew, believe MOC is invaluable in isolating under and overvalued teams.
OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has an NBA playoffs pick Saturday is on the Atlanta Hawks (+8.5) at Orlando.
Reasoning: I am not saying that Atlanta is really ready to fully compete as the last few months were not good for Larry Drew’s team but I’m also not fully buying this current Orlando team. The trades were not as successful as Otis Smith had hoped and Stan Van Gundy’s team has a lot of deficiencies and frankly too many to just lace them up and win going away. Certainly being in the Magic Kingdom is monstrous for Dwight Howard and the home squad and it should result in a victory but this thing is not going to get out of hand like the easy four game sweep a season ago.
The Hawks actually took three of the four meetings this season and even though Howard will dominate the paint Al Horford is a good enough matchup to disrupt Howard, do enough to hold his own and limit a ton of damage. Plus the Atlanta defense is the fourth best in the entire NBA in terms of defending the three point shot and we all know how the Magic will try and go small and bomb away with guys like Richardson, Arenas, Turkoglu and others.
Atlanta has scuffled at times and has regressed a bit. They have had mind scratching horrific 30 plus point blowout losses showing a lack of focus at times, which really isn’t very conducive to success when the chips are down. But I am not all in on this Magic team and still like the talent that the Hawks possess. Orlando has become one of the smaller teams in the league as it’s Howard and Brandon Bass down low and that’s about it, truly.
Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Horford and Jamal Crawford have game. Kirk Hinrich has not exactly been the answer at the point but the guy is at least experienced and good enough. In the end I do believe we are going to see a competitive game that comes enough down the wire for the visitors to grab that cash.
Top expert pick on this game: Atlanta Hawks from Matt Rivers
The top teams to bet on off a straight up loss:Team ATS Record Margin of cover
Chicago 14-5-1 +6.1
Boston 16-10 +2.6
Philadelphia 24-15-1 +4.1
Denver 18-13 +1.6
Now to the best teams to bet against off a straight up loss:Team ATS Record Margin of cover
Miami 7-16-1 -5.4
Dallas 9-16 -1.8
LA Lakers 10-15 -4.4
Here are the best teams against the spread to bet on off a straight up win:Team ATS Record Margin of cover
Miami 33-24 +2.9
Denver 25-21-4 +2.6
Perhaps, not surprising, the best teams to fade off a win failed to make the playoffs (Washington, Houston, Sacramento, Utah), but these are the best postseason teams to bet against when coming off a straight up victory:Team ATS Record Margin of cover
Indiana 15-21-1 -2.6
Atlanta 19-25 -2.3
“Renamed “sweat meter” in Chad Millman of ESPN’s column, Margin of Cover (MOC) is similar to scoring margin, but it is measured by how much a team covers or fails to cover the point spread.
Many sports handicappers, including some at OffshoreInsiders.com such as the Canadian Crew, believe MOC is invaluable in isolating under and overvalued teams.
OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has an NBA playoffs pick Saturday is on the Atlanta Hawks (+8.5) at Orlando.
Reasoning: I am not saying that Atlanta is really ready to fully compete as the last few months were not good for Larry Drew’s team but I’m also not fully buying this current Orlando team. The trades were not as successful as Otis Smith had hoped and Stan Van Gundy’s team has a lot of deficiencies and frankly too many to just lace them up and win going away. Certainly being in the Magic Kingdom is monstrous for Dwight Howard and the home squad and it should result in a victory but this thing is not going to get out of hand like the easy four game sweep a season ago.
The Hawks actually took three of the four meetings this season and even though Howard will dominate the paint Al Horford is a good enough matchup to disrupt Howard, do enough to hold his own and limit a ton of damage. Plus the Atlanta defense is the fourth best in the entire NBA in terms of defending the three point shot and we all know how the Magic will try and go small and bomb away with guys like Richardson, Arenas, Turkoglu and others.
Atlanta has scuffled at times and has regressed a bit. They have had mind scratching horrific 30 plus point blowout losses showing a lack of focus at times, which really isn’t very conducive to success when the chips are down. But I am not all in on this Magic team and still like the talent that the Hawks possess. Orlando has become one of the smaller teams in the league as it’s Howard and Brandon Bass down low and that’s about it, truly.
Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Horford and Jamal Crawford have game. Kirk Hinrich has not exactly been the answer at the point but the guy is at least experienced and good enough. In the end I do believe we are going to see a competitive game that comes enough down the wire for the visitors to grab that cash.
Top expert pick on this game: Atlanta Hawks from Matt Rivers
