Dr. Bob
Saturday Daytime College Opinions
Notre Dame (+7 1/2) over MARQUETTE
Rotation #553 - 11 am Pacific
I won a Best Bet with Notre Dame over U Conn on Wednesday and I like the Irish again. When All-American F Luke Harangody went down with injury I calculated that the Notre Dame offense would actually be 1.5 points per game better without him (based on the team scoring efficiency (minus Harangody's numbers) being better than Harangody's efficiency). What has become apparent is that the Irish are also a better defensive team without Harangody and they certainly are more fluid offensively without running everything through him. The better defense is partly due to the Irish feeling more urgency to play good defense with Harangody out, but the real reason is probably the extra minutes that shot blocker Carlteon Scott is getting. Scott averages 1.1 blocks per game in just 16.7 minutes per game for the season, but he's averaged 2.2 blocks and 32.4 minutes in 5 games without Harangody, who averaged just 0.8 blocks in 35.3 minutes per game. The Irish failed to cover in their first game without their star, but they've covered 4 straight since and are coming off good victories over Pitt, Georgetown, and U Conn. Marquette is a solid team and the fair line on this game using all games for the season would be 8 points. However, Notre Dame is at least 2 points better without Harangody (they've actually been 7 1/2 points better in those 5 games, but some of that is likely due to variance). I favor Marquette by just 6 points in this game and I'll lean with the Irish plus the points.
Wright State (-5) over Detroit
Rotation #674 - 2:15 pm Pacific
Detroit is riding a 5 game win streak, but the Titans are due for a letdown and Wright State applies to a very good 209-92-6 ATS conference tournament situation. My ratings favor Wright State by only 4 points and I'm not going to give up the line value to make this a Best Bet even though the situation is so good. I'll lean with Wright State at the current price and I'd make Wright State a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.
<!-- / message -->