VR’s Morning Moves - Saturday, March 06, 2010
Report Status: SATURDAY MARCH 6th, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on SUN 3-7-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for SATURDAY MARCH 6th, 2010
HANDICAPPING/SPORTS BETTING : “YOU HAVE TO GET THE BEST NUMBER…HERE’S HOW”
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…We cashed our 1st CBB Conference Tournament Bet for “Morning Moves”…and actually SWEPT (3-0) our CBB Conference Tourney Bets on Friday…Then finished the night “6-1” Overall…
Last year we absolutely destroyed the Conference Tournaments…going “66% ATS” Overall…And doing even more Damage with our BIG BOMBS…So this may be a sign of us warming up at the perfect time once again…for MARCH MADNESS…
Now today, Subscribers will be receiving my
“One & Only” CBB 5* GAME OF THE YEAR for the Regular Season…And as much as I absolutely love the wager and feel that it justifies a 5 Unit Bet…the bottom line is that it’s just 2 Units more than the 3*s we just cashed on back to back nights…
So please, always make sure that you keep everything in perspective…and bet the way you know a winning sports bettor is supposed to…And practice many of the Money Management principles that we’ve covered right here on these Newsletters…
Now yesterday we broke down some ways to attempt “Middles”…And I plan on going over “Scalping” in more detail as well…Since there is nothing better for a sports bettor since the RISK is ZERO…
But before we do…I thought this was the perfect time to first, discuss getting the best number…Because we’ve already discussed in a previous Newsletter about how important it is to always make sure that you are shopping for and getting the best possible price…And that the best way to do this is to have plenty of “Outs”…
And since we’ve been covering “Middles”…where getting the best line is the most important factor to be successful…I think we need to go over some of the ways to do this…And also how to get the best number when you are wagering on a play that the Betting Syndicates took a position on…Because many times, they are the ones who actually provide the “Middle”…So not only should you understand “steam”…and we will cover it plenty of times here on these Newsletters…but you should also understand how the market reacts to it so that you are able to take advantage when you can…
So to save on time, since it’s such a big day for us…I am going to use today’s Newsletter to cover ways that you can ensure you are getting the best price for your wagers, especially when they are “Steam“ plays…Since so many of our bets are, and it’s just as important for your “Middles”…because many times as I’ve already said…it’s “STEAM” that opens the door for them…
It's no secret that I spent a major part of my life, and career in this racket moving "Steam" for some of the most successful Betting Syndicates ever...and the one thing that I learned from each of them, was that this is simply a "Numbers Game"...and therefore, getting the best number is the primary goal and in many years, the difference between Winning and Losing...
Now when Bob Martin was the country's main Oddsmaker...there was only a select number of bettors that had the ability to make him move his line, and these bettors got a chance to bet into his numbers, before they was even offered to anyone else...Making the numbers the sharpest they've ever been...and ever will be...
When he called it quits...the flood-gates opened and have since stayed open...And fortunately for us bettors, the sportsbook industry has lagged behind…Which is obvious by things like...Limits, Line-Moves, Messenger Betting, ect...And over the last 2 decades, we've seen an influx of Betting Syndicates who continue to beat the books...and are now viewed as a liability, unlike when I first began moving "steam", we were their asset...
So now with the explosion of the internet, and the access to almost the exact same betting line all across the board...the game has changed dramatically...and the "wise-guys" apply different methods, to both...capp the games and gather info, and more importantly, get down their action...
The day's of having to make "courtesy bets" and "set-up lines" for later in the week are all but gone...The days of working with bookmakers to both conceal the "steam" and entice the "squares" to go the other way, are also gone...Except for some big time locals, who are cut from the old-school cloth that guys like Bob Martin were...
These days, with the proper training...and aptitude for reading markets...your average sports bettor should be able to at the very least...Pick-off which line moves are "steam" and which are not...and possibly even make a living betting on these moves for him/herself, without ever having to book the work, in order to get the play...And although many times, not getting the info from an actual source moving these plays will cost the bettor by being on sides or totals which aren't "steam"...I still believe those who are serious enough about it, and put in the hours studying...can still turn a profit, as long as they focus on getting the "Right Number"...
You see, that is what is the single MOST IMPORTANT factor to these successful Betting Syndicates...Meaning that if they want to lay Dallas -5...if the line is Dallas -5.5...then they have no play. And I have witnessed first hand exactly how disciplined they are, and you have to be in order to truely turn a profit...
Becuase even the best handicappers edge is so small...getting the best number alone, is often the difference between winning and losing years...like I mentioned at the very start...And as we go forward and our edge becomes even smaller, we really need to place close attention on getting the Best Number...
For starters, when I was moving "steam"...I believe our best years were years where we had about a 10% edge on the books...And although many feel that the Kosher Kids MLB bets had an almost 20% edge...When you consider the Entire Year and not just seasons, then I would say that 10% was about the right figure...So before the internet was so wide-spread, it was worth it for a big bookmaker, say in Texas, to give me $2 Dimes on a game...because he knew that for $200, he has my info and can now go ahead and adjust his numbers accordingly...putting us BOTH, more or less on the same side...
Well now that isn't needed like it was then...and the sophistication and competition from other sharp bettors means that the very winningest sports bettors...probably have an edge around 5% during the best years.
Fellas, that is the reality of this racket and do not be mis-led, because having even a 2% edge over the course of a year, and 4 different sports, can still lead to a big profit when all the dust settles...But you can also see from that number...that getting a bad line, and losing some of those "steam" plays that won because of it...can very easily turn a 2% edge, into a 1% Expected Loss...which also can mean a lot of money over a year's time...
So, how does someone who isn't getting these "Steam" plays from actual sources...or even someone who likes to side with what is perceived as the "smart money"...go about getting a good number, when it seems the lines on these games move so much...Well over the years, I was able to develop a few tricks, which allowed me, even during those years of moving other people games...get more money down than many other runners because of it...which then led to getting the pieces earlier and earlier...Because as they trickle down the line, even before they hit the followers...the move can more times than not, leave you on the side-lines...and there is no money to be made there, unless of course you are a back-up in the NFL...
Here are a few of the things you can do...
1.) Try to take it to a whole number...so that a push is possible, rather than a loss...
For example...If the goal was to take Dallas -5.5...rather than wait to see what it does or if it will come back down, go ahead and take it at -6, because the worst case if the "sharps" win, is that you push...And the same holds true when taking points...If the goal is New York +5.5, then go ahead and take +5 rather than risk it dropping even more, putting it out of reach...Because once again, if the "sharps" win...the worst case for you is a push...
On the flip side, if the goal was to get Dallas -4...then don't consider laying -4.5, because you can lose while they push...And the same holds true when the goal is to get New York +5...Don't take +4.5 because once again...they can Push, while you can lose...So memorizing this little "whole number" trick...will allow you to quickly determine whether to fire-away immediately, or wait it out and see if something better develops...But either way, you don't want to be holding a ticket in those spots because you are definately having the "worst of it"...And that is not the way to make a profit in this game...
2.) Take a Deep Breath...and show some PATIENCE...
So many times I was sitting in a sportsbook with about 10 other runners and all of a sudden, a big play came through our 2-ways...And you would see 9 of them simultaneously try to get in line and get down at the desired number...Well in these instances, I did the opposite and knew to back off, because there were either too many others who were ahead of me and would get that number...or even worse, the lines would be filled with horse players and you couldn't get to a window before someone else either came in through the phone...or the book saw the adjustment on their screen via their lines-service...But regardless, I knew my chances were slim...So here is what I did many times...
You would know someone got down because the number would move 1.5pts, which was the average 1st move...Then over the next 10 min, while the majority of runners were on the pay-phones outside calling other outs...or the office to turn the action in...the "wanna-be wise-guys" would catch wind of it and go up and bet it as well...and the books would go ahead and adjust even more...so now the number is 3pts off...More times than not, most guys would give up on that play and move to the next...but I knew that more times than not...that number was going to come back down...Because many times, the middle opportunity forces these "Outfits" to order a Buy-Back...or many times, they would want to lower their liability and edge some off by going the other way...
The reason for this is that if there is a Buy-Order sent out...it's not for a specified amount...Everyone's job is to simply get down as much as possible, at the given number...Well then when the bets are made, we call them in so the employer knows what his position is on the game...Many times, it would be more than they wanted and they would then send out a Buy-Back...and it's at that moment that I would seize the best number again, because the books would go ahead and lower it again...
I know that you see this all of the time...the number moves 2-3 points in one direction...and then before game-time, it comes back down...Well, rather than worry about taking the worst of the number...I suggest that if the "whole number" system isn't there for you to take advantage...then you should sit back and wait it out until much closer to game time because many times you will get a better number...And more importantly, if you don't then you simply are able to pass...and wait for the next opportunity because believe me...there will always be games and there will always be plays...
Now although this Blog will be beneficial to my Clients...I also believe it's beneficial to all sports bettors, because even the recreational bettor will have a much better chance of winning...if they simply attempt to get the best number...And this is regardless of whether you are trying to follow "steam" or perceived "smart money"...or even your own handicapped play...You need to be able to set a price for it, and decide what you will be willing to pay...and not a 1/2 point more or else you are giving up some of your edge if you have one...and increasing the books if you don't...
Although my objective for this Blog was to show my guys and anyone interested some of the ways to get certain numbers...especially since we are on the "outfit" side on so many occassions...the main reason I wanted to write this was to show that besides your skills in handicapping...or info gathering...the most important factor that will determine success of failure is simply getting the "Best Number"...
And although we view sports as entertainment...the reason we ultimately wager on them is to make money...and to do that, you must comprehend that this is a market...and the most important factor of any market is the price...Because as it was first explained to me when I began moving for bettors who were so much more sophisticated than the oddsmakers is like this...You price something at $8...well that makes you a buyer at $6, and a seller at $10...and that same principle must be applied to sports betting as well if you wish to have any success...
Finally, although I want to cover such topics as money management...it turely isn't as important as getting the right number or handicapping correctly...because all the money management in the world isn't going to help you turn a profit if you aren't a winning sports bettor...And it's all inter-related because you can't be a winning sports bettor...if you aren't getting the best of the number...
So next time you step up to make a wager...stop and take a look at the number...where it opened, where it is, and where you think it's going...And then focus your energy on making sure that for this bet, you end up with the very best number possible...And I can promise you that this little exercise alone...just may turn some losers, into Winners...and make all the difference...
Thanks again for your continued support and Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner...
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) 548 CHARLOTTE +2
Even though the betting public is expected to take the Favorite in this game…I’ve spoken to enough “runners” already to know that Charlotte is on plenty of “Buy-Orders” this morning…And because the “steam” seems to be back on track, I expect the books to show some respect and drop the line in an attempt to stop the Betting Syndicates from continuing to fire…And also possible stop some from getting down at all…So I really believe that this line will only move in one direction…DOWN…VR
2.) 619 USC +2.5
I still see a few 3’s out there…but by the time you get this Newsletter, they will probably all be gone…Because once again we have a side that the Wiseguys will be getting down on…And enough Outfits like USC plus the points today that I don’t think the public will matter much in the books decision to adjust…Looking at the match-up, I would say that the books will get some balance from the public anyway…And therefore, they should be forced to show some respect to the Wiseguys…So the only way this line should move from here on out…is also DOWN…VR
Sat, 03/06/10 - 1:30 PM VR's Morning Moves | CBB Sides
double-dime bet 538 Virginia 5.0 (-110) Bodog vs 537 Maryland
Analysis:
** CBB MORNING MOVES 2* BOOKIE BET **
This came very close to being a 3* BOMB...Because not only was I looking at Virginia as a Personal Play and tried to Confirm it...but then one of our best bookmaker sources called me with this one, saying one of his hottest sharps has taken a huge position and was behind some of the books moving to 4.5...You should still have no problem getting +5, because there are plenty of shops who are booking a lot of public money on Maryland I've been told...
Bottom Line...we are looking at a much inflated number here, and I believe the Home Dog is offering us plenty of Line-Value based on nothing more than "perception"...Let's see if we can cash another Morning Move with this ACC Home Dog...VR
