MATT FARGO
Fargo’s **ALL ACCESS** NBA SATURDAY *TRIPLE PLAY*This game reminds me a lot of the Golden St./New Orleans game on Wednesday. New Jersey is horrible and currently playing some bad basketball so this is a good time to back the Nets. Just like taking the Warriors then, we are buying low tonight as this line is severely inflated yet the public is riding it out. There are a lot of +10.5 lines out there and just a week ago, the Nets were +12.5 against the Lakers and there is no way the Rockets are only two points worse than the Lakers. Houston is in a horrendous spot here as it is coming off a game in Orlando on Wednesday and has a game at Cleveland tomorrow. Despite losing to the Magic, I do not see the Rockets getting up for this one especially with the Cavaliers on deck. There certainly is not much good to say about New Jersey but winning in the NBA is about winning ugly and it does not get uglier than this. 8* New Jersey Nets
The wrong team is favored here or I should at least say that the Spurs should not be favored as this game should be in the pickem range. San Antonio was favored by eight points in the first meeting at home this season and the venue change should turn this one into a game right around even. Since that game, the Spurs have gone 9-5 while the Bucks have gone 4-11 so the teams have not been on equal ground but the schedule has had a lot to do with it. Also, Milwaukee has had some brutal losses as three of the last four defeats have come by three points or fewer including two one-point losses at home. You cannot ignore the fact that the Spurs are just 3-6 on the road which is a bad record and it also shows that only just over a third of the games have come away from home. The Spurs and the Lakers are the only two teams in the NBA to play fewer than 10 road games on the year. 8* Milwaukee Bucks
The thinking here will be that the Lakers bounce back from that huge loss against Cleveland on Christmas day but I think it is just the opposite. Obviously the Lakers are a great team but that defeat can linger as they were humbled pretty good and if anything, this will be a big letdown the day after. Add to that, Los Angeles is at Phoenix in two days. I played the Kings in their last game and they covered for 48 minutes but the problem is that the game went to overtime which no underdog bettor ever wants to see and Sacramento was outscored 13-0 by the Cavaliers. That can leave a lingering sting but they have had time to get over it and with another marquee team in town, the Kings will be up once again. They are 10-4 at home and they have been solid in these spots, going a percent 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss. The Lakers meanwhile are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss. Also, Sacramento is 10-3 ATS in its 13 games this season against teams averaging 99 or more ppg. 10* Sacramento Kings
**10** Bowl Game of the Month *82% Angle*
UNC (backed by a 28-6 ATS 82.4% Power Situation)
**9** Emerald Bowl Winner *15-1 Angles*
USC (backed by 15-1 ATS 93.8% Team Angles)
Fargo’s **ALL ACCESS** NBA SATURDAY *TRIPLE PLAY*This game reminds me a lot of the Golden St./New Orleans game on Wednesday. New Jersey is horrible and currently playing some bad basketball so this is a good time to back the Nets. Just like taking the Warriors then, we are buying low tonight as this line is severely inflated yet the public is riding it out. There are a lot of +10.5 lines out there and just a week ago, the Nets were +12.5 against the Lakers and there is no way the Rockets are only two points worse than the Lakers. Houston is in a horrendous spot here as it is coming off a game in Orlando on Wednesday and has a game at Cleveland tomorrow. Despite losing to the Magic, I do not see the Rockets getting up for this one especially with the Cavaliers on deck. There certainly is not much good to say about New Jersey but winning in the NBA is about winning ugly and it does not get uglier than this. 8* New Jersey Nets
The wrong team is favored here or I should at least say that the Spurs should not be favored as this game should be in the pickem range. San Antonio was favored by eight points in the first meeting at home this season and the venue change should turn this one into a game right around even. Since that game, the Spurs have gone 9-5 while the Bucks have gone 4-11 so the teams have not been on equal ground but the schedule has had a lot to do with it. Also, Milwaukee has had some brutal losses as three of the last four defeats have come by three points or fewer including two one-point losses at home. You cannot ignore the fact that the Spurs are just 3-6 on the road which is a bad record and it also shows that only just over a third of the games have come away from home. The Spurs and the Lakers are the only two teams in the NBA to play fewer than 10 road games on the year. 8* Milwaukee Bucks
The thinking here will be that the Lakers bounce back from that huge loss against Cleveland on Christmas day but I think it is just the opposite. Obviously the Lakers are a great team but that defeat can linger as they were humbled pretty good and if anything, this will be a big letdown the day after. Add to that, Los Angeles is at Phoenix in two days. I played the Kings in their last game and they covered for 48 minutes but the problem is that the game went to overtime which no underdog bettor ever wants to see and Sacramento was outscored 13-0 by the Cavaliers. That can leave a lingering sting but they have had time to get over it and with another marquee team in town, the Kings will be up once again. They are 10-4 at home and they have been solid in these spots, going a percent 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss. The Lakers meanwhile are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss. Also, Sacramento is 10-3 ATS in its 13 games this season against teams averaging 99 or more ppg. 10* Sacramento Kings
**10** Bowl Game of the Month *82% Angle*
UNC (backed by a 28-6 ATS 82.4% Power Situation)
**9** Emerald Bowl Winner *15-1 Angles*
USC (backed by 15-1 ATS 93.8% Team Angles)
Strike Point Sports NBA
Saturday's NBA Plays
1-Unit Play. Take Houston/New Jersey 'Under' 195.5 (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 26)
1-Unit Play. #708 Take Chicago (-2.5) over New Orleans (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 26)
1-Unit Play. #713 Take San Antonio (-2.5) over Milwaukee (8:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 26)
4-Unit Game of the Week Play. Take Phoenix/Golden State 'Under' 233.5 (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 26)
Saturday's NBA Plays
1-Unit Play. Take Houston/New Jersey 'Under' 195.5 (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 26)
1-Unit Play. #708 Take Chicago (-2.5) over New Orleans (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 26)
1-Unit Play. #713 Take San Antonio (-2.5) over Milwaukee (8:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 26)
4-Unit Game of the Week Play. Take Phoenix/Golden State 'Under' 233.5 (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 26)
The Duke's Sports
USC (-7) for 2.5 Units
USC may not be playing in their usual BCS Bowl, but they'll be up for this game. HC Carroll does a great job in getting the most out of his players,especially in big games where Carroll sports a 6-1 ATS mark in bowls, including 5-1 ATS as chalk. And athlete to athlete, USC still has the edge on most teams, including BC,even considering the suspensions. We do realize that the Trojans' defense was shakyfor the latter portion of the season; however, we don't believe BC's offense is explosive enough to put a dent in the Trojan horse. BC QB Shinskie completed just 53% of his passes with 13 INT to 14 TD. USC has an aggressive defensive line and a fast enough secondary to create problems for the Eagles. Offensively, the Trojans will probably have McKnight back and QB Barkley has plenty of weapons to go to. USC the call.
USC (-7) for 2.5 Units
USC may not be playing in their usual BCS Bowl, but they'll be up for this game. HC Carroll does a great job in getting the most out of his players,especially in big games where Carroll sports a 6-1 ATS mark in bowls, including 5-1 ATS as chalk. And athlete to athlete, USC still has the edge on most teams, including BC,even considering the suspensions. We do realize that the Trojans' defense was shakyfor the latter portion of the season; however, we don't believe BC's offense is explosive enough to put a dent in the Trojan horse. BC QB Shinskie completed just 53% of his passes with 13 INT to 14 TD. USC has an aggressive defensive line and a fast enough secondary to create problems for the Eagles. Offensively, the Trojans will probably have McKnight back and QB Barkley has plenty of weapons to go to. USC the call.
SEAN HIGGS
IGNORE THE FIRST TWO
4* MARSHALL
I am backing Marshall here. I am sure you can get this line at 3 and maybe even 3.5 by game time. The public is all over 9 win team Ohio here. Marshall is being coached by DC Rick Minter since HC Mark Snyder got the boot. Don't sleep on the Herd. They are a solid defensive club and have a solid 1,000 rusher RB in Darius Marshall, a QB in Brian Anderson who has tossed 3 300 yard games in his last 5 and a developing big play WR in Antavious Wilson who has 22 catches for 306 yards the last 2 games. We've seen teams with interm coaches pull out a couple outright wins in bowl action before. This is a regional rivalry as the Herd was part of the MAC before heading to C-USA. MARSHALL
10* NORTH CAROLINA
I am taking the Tarheels over the Panthers this afternoon. Both teams that had higher bowl hopes. Couple of reasons why NC will get it done. They are closer to home and lost this bowl game last year. Tar Heels also 4-1 ATS vs teams with winning records and 4 outright wins upsetting Va Tech and Miami. In fact, HC Butch Davis is now 13-4 ATS the last 4 years while facing teams with winning records. Panthers are just 1-6 ATS and SU vs teams from the ACC. Pitt could have wrapped up the Big East Title but lost a heartbreaker to Cincy. Let's take the near home team to get it done and continue their trends vs winning teams. NORTH CAROLINA
5* USC
I am taking the Trojans. The best bowl name ever. For a sport that loves to not talk about gambling, you have to appreciate the irony with this! So the Trojans finally stumbled this year after dominating for basically a decade. Nothing wrong with that when you are replacing a half dozen or so NFL players every year. Now we have the anit-Pac 10 wave gaining momentum as Oregon State and Cal both lost outright to Utah and BYU. USC has 3 starters out for various violations. I find it hard to believe that the 2nd teamers aren't going to play for HC Pete Carroll. This is USC, this isn't Nevada where, I made the mistake of backing the "system" instead of the players. USC reloads yearly, and if its the Bookmaker.com or Rose or Sugar, the Trojans will show up. BC also has been brutal on the road this year averaging just 14 points per game. USC defense have allowed 16 or less points in 7 of 12 games. USC is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last 7 bowl games. USC
IGNORE THE FIRST TWO
4* MARSHALL
I am backing Marshall here. I am sure you can get this line at 3 and maybe even 3.5 by game time. The public is all over 9 win team Ohio here. Marshall is being coached by DC Rick Minter since HC Mark Snyder got the boot. Don't sleep on the Herd. They are a solid defensive club and have a solid 1,000 rusher RB in Darius Marshall, a QB in Brian Anderson who has tossed 3 300 yard games in his last 5 and a developing big play WR in Antavious Wilson who has 22 catches for 306 yards the last 2 games. We've seen teams with interm coaches pull out a couple outright wins in bowl action before. This is a regional rivalry as the Herd was part of the MAC before heading to C-USA. MARSHALL
10* NORTH CAROLINA
I am taking the Tarheels over the Panthers this afternoon. Both teams that had higher bowl hopes. Couple of reasons why NC will get it done. They are closer to home and lost this bowl game last year. Tar Heels also 4-1 ATS vs teams with winning records and 4 outright wins upsetting Va Tech and Miami. In fact, HC Butch Davis is now 13-4 ATS the last 4 years while facing teams with winning records. Panthers are just 1-6 ATS and SU vs teams from the ACC. Pitt could have wrapped up the Big East Title but lost a heartbreaker to Cincy. Let's take the near home team to get it done and continue their trends vs winning teams. NORTH CAROLINA
5* USC
I am taking the Trojans. The best bowl name ever. For a sport that loves to not talk about gambling, you have to appreciate the irony with this! So the Trojans finally stumbled this year after dominating for basically a decade. Nothing wrong with that when you are replacing a half dozen or so NFL players every year. Now we have the anit-Pac 10 wave gaining momentum as Oregon State and Cal both lost outright to Utah and BYU. USC has 3 starters out for various violations. I find it hard to believe that the 2nd teamers aren't going to play for HC Pete Carroll. This is USC, this isn't Nevada where, I made the mistake of backing the "system" instead of the players. USC reloads yearly, and if its the Bookmaker.com or Rose or Sugar, the Trojans will show up. BC also has been brutal on the road this year averaging just 14 points per game. USC defense have allowed 16 or less points in 7 of 12 games. USC is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last 7 bowl games. USC
James Patrick Sports
5* Pot of Gold - North Carolina Tar Heels
The question to be answered in this Bowl Game is whether the Pitt Panthers can pick up the shattered pieces of BCS dreams, as the Panthers were a minute away from an upset of Cincinnati (45-44) and a trip to the Sugar Bowl two weeks ago and lost a (21) point lead. That game was proceeded by a crushing defeat against their arch rival West Virginia (19-16). Pitt does play them close as evidenced by their three defeats this season by an average of (3.7) points. North Carolina lost to Virginia and the Tar Heels ended the season with a disappointing loss to rival NC State but also defeated Virginia Tech in Blacksburgh and Miami of Florida this season. A pair of good defenses but we'll side with UNC DC Everett Withers as he boasts the 6th best "D" in the country and it's loaded with speed at linebacker and in the secondary. A virtual home game for the Heels as Chapel Hill is just (65) miles from Charlotte and the fan base will be dominant in Carolina Blue. North Carolina is (3-1) ATS in Bowl Game action against the Big East and played their best football at seasons end with a run of (4-1) ATS their final five games. Dave Wannstedt just doesn't seem to be able to get the "W"in a big game and Pitt was shutout last year by Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. Butch Davis in his own backyard is looking real good to us here.
5* Pot of Gold - North Carolina Tar Heels
The question to be answered in this Bowl Game is whether the Pitt Panthers can pick up the shattered pieces of BCS dreams, as the Panthers were a minute away from an upset of Cincinnati (45-44) and a trip to the Sugar Bowl two weeks ago and lost a (21) point lead. That game was proceeded by a crushing defeat against their arch rival West Virginia (19-16). Pitt does play them close as evidenced by their three defeats this season by an average of (3.7) points. North Carolina lost to Virginia and the Tar Heels ended the season with a disappointing loss to rival NC State but also defeated Virginia Tech in Blacksburgh and Miami of Florida this season. A pair of good defenses but we'll side with UNC DC Everett Withers as he boasts the 6th best "D" in the country and it's loaded with speed at linebacker and in the secondary. A virtual home game for the Heels as Chapel Hill is just (65) miles from Charlotte and the fan base will be dominant in Carolina Blue. North Carolina is (3-1) ATS in Bowl Game action against the Big East and played their best football at seasons end with a run of (4-1) ATS their final five games. Dave Wannstedt just doesn't seem to be able to get the "W"in a big game and Pitt was shutout last year by Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. Butch Davis in his own backyard is looking real good to us here.
KEITH FREDRICK
USC vs. Boston College
Pick: USC -7
Over the years I have developed a Bowl Analysis Model that I think looks at bowls differently from any other I have seen. My BAM goes in depth to compare actual team value vs percieved team value. Once isolated it indicates what team (if there is one, sometimes no edge is found) is the beneficiary of line over reaction, and these are Single Unit Bowl Plays. If, after I handicap the game, my conclusion matches up with the analysis, those become Double or even the occasional Triple Unit play. In this game I have Southern Cal +2 in the BAM ratings, a decent number, but it is the other handicap of the game that earns the Trojans a place on this ticket. USC is 4-1 in bowls the last five seasons against better foes than this (prev 5 were BCS games) and won all four of those games by double digits. The only loss in that span came against Vince Young and Texas, and to borrow a quote from Lloyd Bensten's 1988 vice presidential debate against Dan Quayle (yes, I am dating myself, look it up kids), "I know that Texas team, a great team, and Boston College, you are no Texas." BC lost to all three bowl eligible teams they played this season on the road, and seeing as how this is in USC's home state and thus fans that do not normally get to see them live will have that chance, I see them posting a two touchdown win here.
USC vs. Boston College
Pick: USC -7
Over the years I have developed a Bowl Analysis Model that I think looks at bowls differently from any other I have seen. My BAM goes in depth to compare actual team value vs percieved team value. Once isolated it indicates what team (if there is one, sometimes no edge is found) is the beneficiary of line over reaction, and these are Single Unit Bowl Plays. If, after I handicap the game, my conclusion matches up with the analysis, those become Double or even the occasional Triple Unit play. In this game I have Southern Cal +2 in the BAM ratings, a decent number, but it is the other handicap of the game that earns the Trojans a place on this ticket. USC is 4-1 in bowls the last five seasons against better foes than this (prev 5 were BCS games) and won all four of those games by double digits. The only loss in that span came against Vince Young and Texas, and to borrow a quote from Lloyd Bensten's 1988 vice presidential debate against Dan Quayle (yes, I am dating myself, look it up kids), "I know that Texas team, a great team, and Boston College, you are no Texas." BC lost to all three bowl eligible teams they played this season on the road, and seeing as how this is in USC's home state and thus fans that do not normally get to see them live will have that chance, I see them posting a two touchdown win here.
John Ryan
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings +6.5
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Sacramento as they host the Lakers set to start at 10:05 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that Sacramento will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Yesterday’s loss was a huge physical and emotional one for the Lakers and even they will have trouble rebounding within a 24 hour period for this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 83-47 ATS since 2004. Play on dogs that are explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game on the season facing an opponent after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games. AiS shows an 88% probability that the Lakers will commit between 13 and 17 turnovers. Note that they are just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games where they commit 13 to 17 turnovers this season. Take the Kings.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings +6.5
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Sacramento as they host the Lakers set to start at 10:05 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that Sacramento will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Yesterday’s loss was a huge physical and emotional one for the Lakers and even they will have trouble rebounding within a 24 hour period for this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 83-47 ATS since 2004. Play on dogs that are explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game on the season facing an opponent after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games. AiS shows an 88% probability that the Lakers will commit between 13 and 17 turnovers. Note that they are just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games where they commit 13 to 17 turnovers this season. Take the Kings.
SAMMY JANKUS
Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.
N Carolina vs Pittsburgh
3* N Carolina +2.5
If not for back-to-back losses to end the regular season – by a total of just FOUR POINTS – Pittsburgh would be ranked in the Top 10 and playing in a BCS Bowl. Pitt’s ace in the hole is the Sporting News’ National Freshman of the Year, RB Dion Lewis, who rushed for 137 YPG, 5.5 YPR and scored 17 touchdowns. With North Carolina’s offense an erratic mess, the Tar Heels have little hope of trading points while Lewis keeps the chains moving all afternoon. I’m picking the Panthers by at least a touchdown – so your play is on NORTH CAROLINA.
Boston College vs USC
3* Boston College +7.5
What a humiliating season for the Trojans, ending the year with TWO SU home losses in their final three games! You can bet red-faced HC Pete Carroll will be working overtime to make sure his team regains its fire and purpose here. BC is a much better team playing at home (the Eagles’ two road wins this year came against ACC weaklings Virginia and Maryland) and Carroll versus first-year skipper Frank Spaziani is a coaching mismatch. I look for USC to salve the wounds of a disappointing campaign with a 20-point blowout tonight – so your play is on BOSTON COLLEGE.
Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.
N Carolina vs Pittsburgh
3* N Carolina +2.5
If not for back-to-back losses to end the regular season – by a total of just FOUR POINTS – Pittsburgh would be ranked in the Top 10 and playing in a BCS Bowl. Pitt’s ace in the hole is the Sporting News’ National Freshman of the Year, RB Dion Lewis, who rushed for 137 YPG, 5.5 YPR and scored 17 touchdowns. With North Carolina’s offense an erratic mess, the Tar Heels have little hope of trading points while Lewis keeps the chains moving all afternoon. I’m picking the Panthers by at least a touchdown – so your play is on NORTH CAROLINA.
Boston College vs USC
3* Boston College +7.5
What a humiliating season for the Trojans, ending the year with TWO SU home losses in their final three games! You can bet red-faced HC Pete Carroll will be working overtime to make sure his team regains its fire and purpose here. BC is a much better team playing at home (the Eagles’ two road wins this year came against ACC weaklings Virginia and Maryland) and Carroll versus first-year skipper Frank Spaziani is a coaching mismatch. I look for USC to salve the wounds of a disappointing campaign with a 20-point blowout tonight – so your play is on BOSTON COLLEGE.
Andre Gomes
OKL / CHL Under 190
In my opinion we are dealing with an overinflated line in this contest and the biggest reason for such line is the outcome of the last 2 games of the Thunder that ended way over the total posted. Against the Lakers the line was 197.5 points and the game ended with 219 points and in their last game against the Suns, the line was 212 points and the game ended with 230 points!
However this contest will be way different than those 2 games because the Bobcats play on a completely different style than the Lakers and the Suns. In fact, I tracked the pace of both contests and both were fast paced games. Plus those games were a free throw party, as the games ended with 63 and 66 FT's! Well, the Bobcats are known for playing in a slow pace with half court sets defensively and offensively and right now they are the 4th best team in the league in allowing FT's to the opponents with only 22.4 FT/game. Gerald Wallace is a pretty underrated defender and he will matchup against Kevin Durant and the same can be said about Felton vs Westbrook and I expect the Thunder to have some problems in scoring tonight against the Bobcats.
Meanwhile, the Bobcats offense is still a work in progress project and they have tremendous problems in scoring down the stretch. Note that when playing at home, they are averaging 95.7 points per game, while shooting 44.2% from the field, however on the road they are scoring only 86.4 points per game (while shooting 43.3% FG)! The Thunder are not a bad defensive team anymore, as they are allowing 97.0 points per game this season - good for the 11th best mark in the league! I expect this game to be a slow paced game with both teams focusing on defense. My fair line for this contest is 185/188 points and I see enough edge on the Under in here to pull the trigger.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 190
OKL / CHL Under 190
In my opinion we are dealing with an overinflated line in this contest and the biggest reason for such line is the outcome of the last 2 games of the Thunder that ended way over the total posted. Against the Lakers the line was 197.5 points and the game ended with 219 points and in their last game against the Suns, the line was 212 points and the game ended with 230 points!
However this contest will be way different than those 2 games because the Bobcats play on a completely different style than the Lakers and the Suns. In fact, I tracked the pace of both contests and both were fast paced games. Plus those games were a free throw party, as the games ended with 63 and 66 FT's! Well, the Bobcats are known for playing in a slow pace with half court sets defensively and offensively and right now they are the 4th best team in the league in allowing FT's to the opponents with only 22.4 FT/game. Gerald Wallace is a pretty underrated defender and he will matchup against Kevin Durant and the same can be said about Felton vs Westbrook and I expect the Thunder to have some problems in scoring tonight against the Bobcats.
Meanwhile, the Bobcats offense is still a work in progress project and they have tremendous problems in scoring down the stretch. Note that when playing at home, they are averaging 95.7 points per game, while shooting 44.2% from the field, however on the road they are scoring only 86.4 points per game (while shooting 43.3% FG)! The Thunder are not a bad defensive team anymore, as they are allowing 97.0 points per game this season - good for the 11th best mark in the league! I expect this game to be a slow paced game with both teams focusing on defense. My fair line for this contest is 185/188 points and I see enough edge on the Under in here to pull the trigger.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 190
